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Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

1102103105107108187

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,700 ✭✭✭54and56


    fash wrote: »
    My take is that the EU is using Johnson's deadline against him. "We can agree to getting it finished by this date... if you accept our conditions"

    100% standard negotiating tactic. The party under the tightest time constraint is always at a disadvantage as the other party can just wait them out to extract as much as possible.

    I remember a lecturer in first year business studies many moons ago telling a story of an American businessman who went to Japan to negotiate better pricing from his suppliers. They greeted him off the plane and asked when his return flight was booked for. He confirmed it was 5 days later so they proceeded to wine, dine and generally entertain him for 4 days telling him there'd be plenty of time for business on the last day before he flew home!!

    Needless to say he didn't get what he wanted to or could have gotten had her not allowed his own timeline to be used against him.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,806 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    The Irish Times poll numbers on Brexit: 60% back Irish Brexit negotiating strategy, Varadkar personal satisfaction up to 51%, 47% believe Government should hold fast on backstop, while 42% support a compromise - believe the last figure was the reverse in the May poll, but don't have that survey to hand.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/irish-times-poll-leo-varadkar-s-approval-rating-rises-above-50-1.4050285


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,918 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    DUP were summoned to Downing Street tonight.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,806 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    DUP visiting No. 10 tonight - being threatened or bribed?

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1183837455058964485


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,918 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Yup

    EG3ZGSTX0AYIWC5?format=jpg&name=small

    Probably both?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,648 ✭✭✭gooch2k9


    A little of bit of this a little bit of that.

    Hope they get absolutely roasted. They've been the thorn in everyone's side for years now.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,268 ✭✭✭threeball


    The Irish Times poll numbers on Brexit: 60% back Irish Brexit negotiating strategy, Varadkar personal satisfaction up to 51%, 47% believe Government should hold fast on backstop, while 42% support a compromise - believe the last figure was the reverse in the May poll, but don't have that survey to hand.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/irish-times-poll-leo-varadkar-s-approval-rating-rises-above-50-1.4050285

    I wonder what the other 40% reckon we should do. Doff the cap?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,035 ✭✭✭✭J Mysterio


    More embarassing stuff coming out of Johnson closet:

    https://twitter.com/bendepear/status/1183698578751053824

    Bit more pressure on him again.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,918 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Peter Foster has the latest - saying things more positive tonight

    https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1183847719623954434


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,806 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    Curious as to what would be a halfway house between the backstop and the customs partnership, as he describes, however - NI in both CUs?


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,918 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1183850042345611264

    The customs tariff wall would have to be rock solid between NI and GB, that's for sure!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,375 ✭✭✭✭prawnsambo


    https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1183850042345611264

    The customs tariff wall would have to be rock solid between NI and GB, that's for sure!
    I'd be more concerned about the SM protections tbh. Customs is only small money. SM is a make or break issue for us. And NI.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,918 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Sterling going up reasonably sharply at the moment on reports a deal may be close.

    Hope not another false dawn.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,688 ✭✭✭✭Muahahaha


    briany wrote: »
    Ultimately, the UVF bombing Limerick in the event of a sea border would make no sense whatsoever. Surely even many hardcore Loyalists would be scratching their heads. The sea border would have been something signed up to by the UK government.

    Anyway, their campaign wouldn't have that much legs if a backstop arrangement ended up being quite beneficial for the North.

    I wouldnt say they would be capable of any long standing campaign but they would be capable of a big one off bomb in an Irish city and they hate us enough to go ahead and do it. Anyway I hope the Gardai and PSNI are taking these threats seriously because there are some absolute nutters in the UDA/UVF who would take the chance to hit us, their threats shouldnt just be viewed as empty rhetoric.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 45,630 ✭✭✭✭Mr.Nice Guy


    Philippe Lamberts on Newsnight says he's not convinced Johnson wants a deal.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,268 ✭✭✭threeball


    Philippe Lamberts on Newsnight says he's not convinced Johnson wants a deal.

    He's basically relaying Barniers opinion and you can guarantee he's on the money. Bojo running down the clock


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,163 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    Philippe Lamberts on Newsnight says he's not convinced Johnson wants a deal.

    What Johnson is proposing seems very messy and technical. The risks of it falling apart are considerable.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,808 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    Doing it may be possible, the problem is it having a guaranteed foolproof system and a legal line of responsibility.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 69,969 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Paisley Jnr couldn't help himself revealing what might have gone down in No. 10 tonight. Was almost like he was retelling the threats they made to Boris.
    'We will vote against what you are suggesting'. My guess is Boris tried to sell them a backstop and border in the Irish Sea.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,163 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    Water John wrote: »
    Doing it may be possible, the problem is it having a guaranteed foolproof system and a legal line of responsibility.

    I can believe Johnson might sign such a deal with the EU but it seems so complex and technical and cobbled together that you'd wonder if the 'deal' would survive even a week.

    He seems to have moved only slightly, not some dramatic shift in policy.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,085 ✭✭✭✭BonnieSituation


    Muahahaha wrote: »
    Well if the UDA/UVF are threatening bombs in Limerick I'd hope the Gardai are taking it very seriously because they are capable of it.

    But they're not actually.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,688 ✭✭✭✭Muahahaha


    But they're not actually.

    I wouldnt be so sure, most of them are involved in violent crime. Assembling a bomb is not beyond them when the info on doing so is freely available online.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,380 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    But they're not actually.

    Well, The Belfast Telegraph are quoting a prominent Loyalist, Robert Girvan saying exactly that:

    "I can’t see loyalism of any strand just walking into a situation where there is any type of economic union with the Irish Republic. I was talking to someone who said we’ll see how hard the border is if bombs start going off in Limerick."


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,085 ✭✭✭✭BonnieSituation


    I'll eat my bowler if there's a renewed loyalist campaign. It's just so laughable.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,220 ✭✭✭cameramonkey


    Muahahaha wrote: »
    I wouldnt be so sure, most of them are involved in violent crime. Assembling a bomb is not beyond them when the info on doing so is freely available online.


    Loyalist were a counter gang run by British Military intelligence, they were armed and directed by the Brits, they couldn't light a banger on their own, they would be rounded up in a few weeks without British support.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,380 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    I'll eat my bowler if there's a renewed loyalist campaign. It's just so laughable.

    You'd probably get some dissidents on both sides. It's not like it was decades ago when each side had much more support in both communities. Hopefully.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,085 ✭✭✭✭BonnieSituation


    You'd probably get some dissidents on both sides. It's not like it was decades ago when each side had much more support in both communities. Hopefully.

    Exactly, there's no appetite for it.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,163 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    Well, The Belfast Telegraph are quoting a prominent Loyalist, Robert Girvan saying exactly that:

    "I can’t see loyalism of any strand just walking into a situation where there is any type of economic union with the Irish Republic. I was talking to someone who said we’ll see how hard the border is if bombs start going off in Limerick."

    A NI journalist was saying on Drivetime the loyalists don't have the technical know how or expertise to mount a terrorist campaign.

    She says she could see civil unrest though.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 667 ✭✭✭lola85


    Strazdas wrote: »
    A NI journalist was saying on Drivetime the loyalists don't have the technical know how or expertise to mount a terrorist campaign.

    She says she could see civil unrest though.

    Only takes one nut job and one bomb to cause misery.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,380 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    Strazdas wrote: »
    A NI journalist was saying on Drivetime the loyalists don't have the technical know how or expertise to mount a terrorist campaign.

    She says she could see civil unrest though.

    I would say civil unrest would be the least of it. I wouldn't rule out rioting and guns. This time around they won't have any official backing or (some) RUC officers turning a blind eye.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,268 ✭✭✭threeball


    Strazdas wrote: »
    A NI journalist was saying on Drivetime the loyalists don't have the technical know how or expertise to mount a terrorist campaign.

    She says she could see civil unrest though.

    If some of the simpletons that managed to build bombs in the name of Isis could do it I'm sure the loyalists could manage it too. Nothing sustainable but an attack or two is not beyond belief.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,062 ✭✭✭davedanon


    What's this 'economic union with Ireland' nonsense. what do they think they have now, and have had hitherto? Honestly, these people are impossible.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 69,969 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Strazdas wrote: »
    A NI journalist was saying on Drivetime the loyalists don't have the technical know how or expertise to mount a terrorist campaign.

    She says she could see civil unrest though.

    And a Unionist business representative basically laughed at Jamie Bryson's not so subtle veiled threats.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,301 ✭✭✭✭jm08


    threeball wrote: »
    If some of the simpletons that managed to build bombs in the name of Isis could do it I'm sure the loyalists could manage it too. Nothing sustainable but an attack or two is not beyond belief.


    They would never navigate their way into the ROI - totally alien country to them.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,080 ✭✭✭trashcan


    davedanon wrote: »
    What's this 'economic union with Ireland' nonsense. what do they think they have now, and have had hitherto? Honestly, these people are impossible.

    Indeed. But when you're led by the likes of Sammy Wilson, well..........


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,688 ✭✭✭✭Muahahaha


    threeball wrote: »
    If some of the simpletons that managed to build bombs in the name of Isis could do it I'm sure the loyalists could manage it too. Nothing sustainable but an attack or two is not beyond belief.

    Exactly this. They are not capable of launching a sustained terrorist campaign but they capable of a one off bomb. It was discussed on Claire Byrne just there and John Mooney of the Sunday Times said there is a lot of anger in loyalist communities and they would see a border down the Irish sea as an opportunity for them to project their power and assert themselves. A bomb in the republic would certainly do that and they contain enough nutjobs that they might actually attempt it. Which is why Id hope the Gardai and PSNI are not just treating it as an empty threat, even a lone wolf would be capable of doing it and if it happened there would be widespread panic in the country and then the IRA dissidents would attempt to retaliate.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,062 ✭✭✭davedanon


    Larbre34 wrote: »
    So long as they limit it to Limerick, its not the worst in terms of a quid pro quo.

    Millions of euro worth of improvements etc etc.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,317 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    As much as one may consider the loyalists to be a joke, building a half-arsed IED doesn't require very much brain power or resources.

    While one would expect that they no longer have their own communities to hide within, if you consider them criminals on a par with the Hutch/Kinahan idiots, then you can see that they could do some serious damage if left to their own devices. They'd injure themselves a couple of times, but all it would take is one large pipe bomb on O'Connell street and a dead child or two to cause panic and kick the whole thing off again.

    Anti-terrorism would be a cross-border effort in any case. There are no barriers between the Gardai and the PSNI like there were before the 1990s, and even if the worst Brexit were to happen, communication and co-operation lines would remain open officially or unofficially. It's in nobody's interests to allow an IRA or UVF to get a foothold again, so I'd imagine both forces would be well on top of anyone who calls themselves a dissident of any kind.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,143 ✭✭✭ilovesmybrick


    https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1183994147931410432?s=20

    After meeting the DUP it looks like the British are making new proposals. Highly unlikely to have anything agreed by the end of the month so, presumably these new proposals are going to move further away from what is acceptable too the EU.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 69,969 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1183994147931410432?s=20

    After meeting the DUP it looks like the British are making new proposals. Highly unlikely to have anything agreed by the end of the month so, presumably these new proposals are going to move further away from what is acceptable too the EU.

    We have another round of 'cautious optimism' according to Connelly on Morning Ireland.
    Legal text to be provided today.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,648 ✭✭✭gooch2k9


    Is Johnson safe as Tory leader for any period after election? I just notice the likes of Jeremy Hunt coming out of the woodwork again coming up to the deadline.


  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 39,564 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Various low quality posts deleted. Any more nonsense about bombings will be sanctioned.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    [quoted="gooch2k9;111511841"]Is Johnson safe as Tory leader for any period after election? I just notice the likes of Jeremy Hunt coming out of the woodwork again coming up to the deadline.[/quote]

    Difficult to see any immediate threat but you never know. The whole arcuri business and any number of skeletons in his closer would, in normal circumstances be his biggest worry, but as with trump, the bar for leaders behaviour seems to be set higher and higher these days. Judging in how he's able to stoke up the yahoos among his own party with his childish bluster at the despatch box, I think they'll stick with him for a while yet.


  • Registered Users Posts: 384 ✭✭mrbrianj


    So, it looks like to real agreement between Leo and Johnson last week was to set up the DUP to shoulder ALL the blame the failure of Brexit.

    Leo and Johnson both get to face into a GE with having got the bones of a deal agreed only for the bould DUP to scupper it.

    New Border = DUP, No Deal Brexit = DUP, No Brexit =DUP. The Dup are removing themselves from real politics and governing to focus on the King Billy vote - twas ever thus.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 803 ✭✭✭woohoo!!!


    Tuned out the last few days, I think everyone should take the occasional break. How's the blame game going?


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,525 ✭✭✭SeaBreezes


    The REAL reason for Brexit.

    Hugely disappointed but sadly not surprised that the properties register bill has been dropped from this so-called "law and order" Queen's Speech. This register would stop the secrecy for the super-rich that buy UK property and is vital in the fight against economic crime

    https://mobile.twitter.com/margarethodge/status/1183743152294977536


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,240 ✭✭✭✭Hurrache


    Slightly off topic but the DUP may have been slightly distracted the last couple of days which is why they seem to have been pretty quite regarding the discussions.
    https://twitter.com/SJAMcBride/status/1183763429707915264

    And the Barbara Streisand effect
    https://twitter.com/SJAMcBride/status/1184027189106360320


  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 39,564 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Hurrache wrote: »
    Slightly off topic but the DUP may have been slightly distracted the last couple of days which is why they seem to have been pretty quite regarding the discussions.
    https://twitter.com/SJAMcBride/status/1183763429707915264

    And the Barbara Streisland effect
    https://twitter.com/SJAMcBride/status/1184027189106360320

    So they've basically decided to shine a spotlight on it and make its existence known to the world. The smart thing to do would have been to let such a niche book just fade into the ether but now they've basically given it the best form of free publicity - controversy & legal action.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,808 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    If I was the EU, I would take my time and detailed through the discussions. Let Johnson wait, make him send in his letter and work to get the deal right.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,918 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Rees Mogg saying DUP and ERG will support the proposed deal Johnson is putting forward today.

    Which is?


This discussion has been closed.
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