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Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Quin_Dub

This is the eleventh incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread,

Same warnings etc still apply:

As we are approaching the critical end of March October 2019 period, please bear the following in mind before posting:
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Professor Moriarty

BonnieSituation wrote: »

I'll eat my bowler if there's a renewed loyalist campaign. It's just so laughable.

You'd probably get some dissidents on both sides. It's not like it was decades ago when each side had much more support in both communities. Hopefully.

BonnieSituation

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

You'd probably get some dissidents on both sides. It's not like it was decades ago when each side had much more support in both communities. Hopefully.

Exactly, there's no appetite for it.

Strazdas

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Well, The Belfast Telegraph are quoting a prominent Loyalist, Robert Girvan saying exactly that:

"I can’t see loyalism of any strand just walking into a situation where there is any type of economic union with the Irish Republic. I was talking to someone who said we’ll see how hard the border is if bombs start going off in Limerick."

A NI journalist was saying on Drivetime the loyalists don't have the technical know how or expertise to mount a terrorist campaign.

She says she could see civil unrest though.

lola85

Strazdas wrote: »

A NI journalist was saying on Drivetime the loyalists don't have the technical know how or expertise to mount a terrorist campaign.

She says she could see civil unrest though.

Only takes one nut job and one bomb to cause misery.

Professor Moriarty

Strazdas wrote: »

A NI journalist was saying on Drivetime the loyalists don't have the technical know how or expertise to mount a terrorist campaign.

She says she could see civil unrest though.

I would say civil unrest would be the least of it. I wouldn't rule out rioting and guns. This time around they won't have any official backing or (some) RUC officers turning a blind eye.

threeball

Strazdas wrote: »

A NI journalist was saying on Drivetime the loyalists don't have the technical know how or expertise to mount a terrorist campaign.

She says she could see civil unrest though.

If some of the simpletons that managed to build bombs in the name of Isis could do it I'm sure the loyalists could manage it too. Nothing sustainable but an attack or two is not beyond belief.

davedanon

What's this 'economic union with Ireland' nonsense. what do they think they have now, and have had hitherto? Honestly, these people are impossible.

FrancieBrady

Strazdas wrote: »

A NI journalist was saying on Drivetime the loyalists don't have the technical know how or expertise to mount a terrorist campaign.

She says she could see civil unrest though.

And a Unionist business representative basically laughed at Jamie Bryson's not so subtle veiled threats.

jm08

threeball wrote: »

If some of the simpletons that managed to build bombs in the name of Isis could do it I'm sure the loyalists could manage it too. Nothing sustainable but an attack or two is not beyond belief.

They would never navigate their way into the ROI - totally alien country to them.

trashcan

davedanon wrote: »

What's this 'economic union with Ireland' nonsense. what do they think they have now, and have had hitherto? Honestly, these people are impossible.

Indeed. But when you're led by the likes of Sammy Wilson, well..........

Muahahaha

threeball wrote: »

If some of the simpletons that managed to build bombs in the name of Isis could do it I'm sure the loyalists could manage it too. Nothing sustainable but an attack or two is not beyond belief.

Exactly this. They are not capable of launching a sustained terrorist campaign but they capable of a one off bomb. It was discussed on Claire Byrne just there and John Mooney of the Sunday Times said there is a lot of anger in loyalist communities and they would see a border down the Irish sea as an opportunity for them to project their power and assert themselves. A bomb in the republic would certainly do that and they contain enough nutjobs that they might actually attempt it. Which is why Id hope the Gardai and PSNI are not just treating it as an empty threat, even a lone wolf would be capable of doing it and if it happened there would be widespread panic in the country and then the IRA dissidents would attempt to retaliate.

davedanon

Larbre34 wrote: »

So long as they limit it to Limerick, its not the worst in terms of a quid pro quo.

Millions of euro worth of improvements etc etc.

seamus

As much as one may consider the loyalists to be a joke, building a half-arsed IED doesn't require very much brain power or resources.

While one would expect that they no longer have their own communities to hide within, if you consider them criminals on a par with the Hutch/Kinahan idiots, then you can see that they could do some serious damage if left to their own devices. They'd injure themselves a couple of times, but all it would take is one large pipe bomb on O'Connell street and a dead child or two to cause panic and kick the whole thing off again.

Anti-terrorism would be a cross-border effort in any case. There are no barriers between the Gardai and the PSNI like there were before the 1990s, and even if the worst Brexit were to happen, communication and co-operation lines would remain open officially or unofficially. It's in nobody's interests to allow an IRA or UVF to get a foothold again, so I'd imagine both forces would be well on top of anyone who calls themselves a dissident of any kind.

ilovesmybrick

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1183994147931410432?s=20

After meeting the DUP it looks like the British are making new proposals. Highly unlikely to have anything agreed by the end of the month so, presumably these new proposals are going to move further away from what is acceptable too the EU.

FrancieBrady

ilovesmybrick wrote: »

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1183994147931410432?s=20

After meeting the DUP it looks like the British are making new proposals. Highly unlikely to have anything agreed by the end of the month so, presumably these new proposals are going to move further away from what is acceptable too the EU.

We have another round of 'cautious optimism' according to Connelly on Morning Ireland.
Legal text to be provided today.

gooch2k9

Is Johnson safe as Tory leader for any period after election? I just notice the likes of Jeremy Hunt coming out of the woodwork again coming up to the deadline.

ancapailldorcha

Various low quality posts deleted. Any more nonsense about bombings will be sanctioned.

Joe_ Public

[quoted="gooch2k9;111511841"]Is Johnson safe as Tory leader for any period after election? I just notice the likes of Jeremy Hunt coming out of the woodwork again coming up to the deadline.[/quote]

Difficult to see any immediate threat but you never know. The whole arcuri business and any number of skeletons in his closer would, in normal circumstances be his biggest worry, but as with trump, the bar for leaders behaviour seems to be set higher and higher these days. Judging in how he's able to stoke up the yahoos among his own party with his childish bluster at the despatch box, I think they'll stick with him for a while yet.

mrbrianj

So, it looks like to real agreement between Leo and Johnson last week was to set up the DUP to shoulder ALL the blame the failure of Brexit.

Leo and Johnson both get to face into a GE with having got the bones of a deal agreed only for the bould DUP to scupper it.

New Border = DUP, No Deal Brexit = DUP, No Brexit =DUP. The Dup are removing themselves from real politics and governing to focus on the King Billy vote - twas ever thus.

woohoo!!!

Tuned out the last few days, I think everyone should take the occasional break. How's the blame game going?

SeaBreezes

The REAL reason for Brexit.

Hugely disappointed but sadly not surprised that the properties register bill has been dropped from this so-called "law and order" Queen's Speech. This register would stop the secrecy for the super-rich that buy UK property and is vital in the fight against economic crime

https://mobile.twitter.com/margarethodge/status/1183743152294977536

Hurrache

Slightly off topic but the DUP may have been slightly distracted the last couple of days which is why they seem to have been pretty quite regarding the discussions.
https://twitter.com/SJAMcBride/status/1183763429707915264

And the Barbara Streisand effect
https://twitter.com/SJAMcBride/status/1184027189106360320

ancapailldorcha

Hurrache wrote: »

Slightly off topic but the DUP may have been slightly distracted the last couple of days which is why they seem to have been pretty quite regarding the discussions.
https://twitter.com/SJAMcBride/status/1183763429707915264

And the Barbara Streisland effect
https://twitter.com/SJAMcBride/status/1184027189106360320

So they've basically decided to shine a spotlight on it and make its existence known to the world. The smart thing to do would have been to let such a niche book just fade into the ether but now they've basically given it the best form of free publicity - controversy & legal action.

Water John

If I was the EU, I would take my time and detailed through the discussions. Let Johnson wait, make him send in his letter and work to get the deal right.

Kermit.de.frog

Rees Mogg saying DUP and ERG will support the proposed deal Johnson is putting forward today.

Which is?

The high horse brigade

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Which is?

Let me guess....Something dreamed up by the DUP that doesn't respect the GFA or the Nationalist community up the north

Water John

Hopefully not one step forward, two steps back, but my instinct says otherwise if these two are happy with it. Unless it's workable and has no potential legal holes the EU won't agree to it.

Leroy42

If the muted deal, that of two custom unions in one, is agreed, doesn't this make the likes of David Davis correct in that the EU will have moved at the last minute?

It sounds like an unworkable mess, one where Ireland relies heavily on a 3rd country to maintain its border and product integrity.

I see this as a massive climbdown by the EU and a sell out of Ireland for EU economic security. You only have to look at the UK dalliance with tearing up the GFA and the Tories getting into bed with the DUP whilst failing to push them to reopen Stormont, to know that this will never be anything more that a mess

FrancieBrady

Leroy42 wrote: »

If the muted deal, that of two custom unions in one, is agreed, doesn't this make the likes of David Davis correct in that the EU will have moved at the last minute?

It sounds like an unworkable mess, one where Ireland relies heavily on a 3rd country to maintain its border and product integrity.

I see this as a massive climbdown by the EU and a sell out of Ireland for EU economic security. You only have to look at the UK dalliance with tearing up the GFA and the Tories getting into bed with the DUP whilst failing to push them to reopen Stormont, to know that this will never be anything more that a mess

Have they not more or less ruled that idea out? These are 'new proposals' coming today.

Water John

The EU won't agree to anything that could potentially hole the SM, I would have faith in them on that. It's core to what the EU are about.

If these 'new proposals' are acceptable to both the DUP and ERG, I expect them to be the two steps back, that's why I wouldn't be hopeful.