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Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Quin_Dub

This is the eleventh incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread,

Same warnings etc still apply:

As we are approaching the critical end of March October 2019 period, please bear the following in mind before posting:
Insults directed at popular figures are not acceptable in this forum
Please do not post memes, videos or comedy links here
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FrancieBrady

threeball wrote: »

You're attributing a sense of logic or pragmatism to loyalists which simply doesn't exist.

The DUP used the same tactic of threatening violence at the AIA and the fleg protests.
Loyalism failed to stop both. It's last gasp stuff from the DUP again.

Infini

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Emma De Souza's case was brought up earlier today - bad news...

https://twitter.com/EmmandJDeSouza/status/1183683193343488000

https://www.thejournal.ie/readme/emma-desouza-citizenship-identity-northern-ireland-case-4850986-Oct2019/

More detailed article from the Journal.ie but this doesn't look to be over yet it's likely going to be appealed and end up before the supreme court by the looks of it. The fact that on the one hand the GFA was agreed by the UK but the relevant legislation was not implimented as per agreement could cause issues so watch this space.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The DUP used the same tactic of threatening violence at the AIA and the fleg protests.
Loyalism failed to stop both. It's last gasp stuff from the DUP again.

I'm of the view that the loyalist violence angle might be getting hyped up more than it actually is, bombing anywhere in the south because the British Goverment and Dumbáss Unionist Party ultimately fúcked up and destroyed peoples livelihoods with their ignorant BS and stupidity is not gonna do anything but undermine them further, remember in the event of a Hard Brexit, Unionism is the loser because the moment they put ideology before prosperity then a UI becomes the front runner for resolving the situation as its the only way out for them.

dePeatrick

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Look at the disrespect here:

https://twitter.com/HMRadioUK/status/1183764320955654144

Really highlights how divided Westminster is, and how England and Scotland are literally heading in different directions.

Reading the comments there and his critics call him boring...well he does not make wisecracks and smart answers like the rest of them, he makes sense. The HOC is a joke, a really bad schoolboyish one at that, the heckling is embarrassing and the likes of Johnson behaves like a really bad B list comedian.

dePeatrick

fash wrote: »

My take is that the EU is using Johnson's deadline against him. "We can agree to getting it finished by this date... if you accept our conditions"

Can you imagine how the amount of goods that are currently being purchased by the rest of the EU now and how much will be found elsewhere by the time this comes around. They will lose out on billions.

Kermit.de.frog

The consequences of no deal for the UK are so serious that I don't see they are able to have no deal.

What they are telling the public is not reality!

EU markets would be progressively restricted to the UK the longer no deal was. This would be catastrophic.

If you are Airbus, for example, or any car manufacturers facing tariffs and delays why would you retain any plants in the UK!?

It would be a disaster.

54and56

fash wrote: »

My take is that the EU is using Johnson's deadline against him. "We can agree to getting it finished by this date... if you accept our conditions"

100% standard negotiating tactic. The party under the tightest time constraint is always at a disadvantage as the other party can just wait them out to extract as much as possible.

I remember a lecturer in first year business studies many moons ago telling a story of an American businessman who went to Japan to negotiate better pricing from his suppliers. They greeted him off the plane and asked when his return flight was booked for. He confirmed it was 5 days later so they proceeded to wine, dine and generally entertain him for 4 days telling him there'd be plenty of time for business on the last day before he flew home!!

Needless to say he didn't get what he wanted to or could have gotten had her not allowed his own timeline to be used against him.

An Ciarraioch

The Irish Times poll numbers on Brexit: 60% back Irish Brexit negotiating strategy, Varadkar personal satisfaction up to 51%, 47% believe Government should hold fast on backstop, while 42% support a compromise - believe the last figure was the reverse in the May poll, but don't have that survey to hand.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/irish-times-poll-leo-varadkar-s-approval-rating-rises-above-50-1.4050285

Kermit.de.frog

DUP were summoned to Downing Street tonight.

An Ciarraioch

DUP visiting No. 10 tonight - being threatened or bribed?

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1183837455058964485

Kermit.de.frog

Yup

Probably both?

gooch2k9

A little of bit of this a little bit of that.

Hope they get absolutely roasted. They've been the thorn in everyone's side for years now.

threeball

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

The Irish Times poll numbers on Brexit: 60% back Irish Brexit negotiating strategy, Varadkar personal satisfaction up to 51%, 47% believe Government should hold fast on backstop, while 42% support a compromise - believe the last figure was the reverse in the May poll, but don't have that survey to hand.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/irish-times-poll-leo-varadkar-s-approval-rating-rises-above-50-1.4050285

I wonder what the other 40% reckon we should do. Doff the cap?

J Mysterio

More embarassing stuff coming out of Johnson closet:

https://twitter.com/bendepear/status/1183698578751053824

Bit more pressure on him again.

Kermit.de.frog

Peter Foster has the latest - saying things more positive tonight

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1183847719623954434

An Ciarraioch

Curious as to what would be a halfway house between the backstop and the customs partnership, as he describes, however - NI in both CUs?

Kermit.de.frog

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1183850042345611264

The customs tariff wall would have to be rock solid between NI and GB, that's for sure!

prawnsambo

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1183850042345611264

The customs tariff wall would have to be rock solid between NI and GB, that's for sure!

I'd be more concerned about the SM protections tbh. Customs is only small money. SM is a make or break issue for us. And NI.

Kermit.de.frog

Sterling going up reasonably sharply at the moment on reports a deal may be close.

Hope not another false dawn.

Muahahaha

briany wrote: »

Ultimately, the UVF bombing Limerick in the event of a sea border would make no sense whatsoever. Surely even many hardcore Loyalists would be scratching their heads. The sea border would have been something signed up to by the UK government.

Anyway, their campaign wouldn't have that much legs if a backstop arrangement ended up being quite beneficial for the North.

I wouldnt say they would be capable of any long standing campaign but they would be capable of a big one off bomb in an Irish city and they hate us enough to go ahead and do it. Anyway I hope the Gardai and PSNI are taking these threats seriously because there are some absolute nutters in the UDA/UVF who would take the chance to hit us, their threats shouldnt just be viewed as empty rhetoric.

Mr.Nice Guy

Philippe Lamberts on Newsnight says he's not convinced Johnson wants a deal.

threeball

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Philippe Lamberts on Newsnight says he's not convinced Johnson wants a deal.

He's basically relaying Barniers opinion and you can guarantee he's on the money. Bojo running down the clock

Strazdas

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Philippe Lamberts on Newsnight says he's not convinced Johnson wants a deal.

What Johnson is proposing seems very messy and technical. The risks of it falling apart are considerable.

Water John

Doing it may be possible, the problem is it having a guaranteed foolproof system and a legal line of responsibility.

FrancieBrady

Paisley Jnr couldn't help himself revealing what might have gone down in No. 10 tonight. Was almost like he was retelling the threats they made to Boris.
'We will vote against what you are suggesting'. My guess is Boris tried to sell them a backstop and border in the Irish Sea.

Strazdas

Water John wrote: »

Doing it may be possible, the problem is it having a guaranteed foolproof system and a legal line of responsibility.

I can believe Johnson might sign such a deal with the EU but it seems so complex and technical and cobbled together that you'd wonder if the 'deal' would survive even a week.

He seems to have moved only slightly, not some dramatic shift in policy.

BonnieSituation

Muahahaha wrote: »

Well if the UDA/UVF are threatening bombs in Limerick I'd hope the Gardai are taking it very seriously because they are capable of it.

But they're not actually.

Muahahaha

BonnieSituation wrote: »

But they're not actually.

I wouldnt be so sure, most of them are involved in violent crime. Assembling a bomb is not beyond them when the info on doing so is freely available online.

Professor Moriarty

BonnieSituation wrote: »

But they're not actually.

Well, The Belfast Telegraph are quoting a prominent Loyalist, Robert Girvan saying exactly that:

"I can’t see loyalism of any strand just walking into a situation where there is any type of economic union with the Irish Republic. I was talking to someone who said we’ll see how hard the border is if bombs start going off in Limerick."

BonnieSituation

I'll eat my bowler if there's a renewed loyalist campaign. It's just so laughable.

cameramonkey

Muahahaha wrote: »

I wouldnt be so sure, most of them are involved in violent crime. Assembling a bomb is not beyond them when the info on doing so is freely available online.

Loyalist were a counter gang run by British Military intelligence, they were armed and directed by the Brits, they couldn't light a banger on their own, they would be rounded up in a few weeks without British support.