Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie
Hi all! We have been experiencing an issue on site where threads have been missing the latest postings. The platform host Vanilla are working on this issue. A workaround that has been used by some is to navigate back from 1 to 10+ pages to re-sync the thread and this will then show the latest posts. Thanks, Mike.
Hi there,
There is an issue with role permissions that is being worked on at the moment.
If you are having trouble with access or permissions on regional forums please post here to get access: https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058365403/you-do-not-have-permission-for-that#latest
There is an issue with role permissions that is being worked on at the moment.
If you are having trouble with access or permissions on regional forums please post here to get access: https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058365403/you-do-not-have-permission-for-that#latest
FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 / 2019 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**
Comments
-
-
-
This morning's 06z GFS run is giving a potential for some snow over Thursday night into Friday morning next week (7th and 8th of March)
Snow depths:
Might be a surprise for some following this week's mild where we hit 14.3c in south Laois.0 -
-
This morning's 06z GFS run is giving a potential for some snow over Thursday night into Friday morning next week (7th and 8th of March)
Snow depths:
Might be a surprise for some following this week's mild where we hit 14.3c in south Laois.
Or maybe no surprise whatsoever as it's just the GFS.0 -
Far away and no certainty but the ECM showing some cold charts. That Low to the N of Scotland helping to steer down a very cold air mass. The Jet more to the S of us on these charts letting the colder polar air sink down over us.
We are all well aware how time and again the cold charts failed to materialise this winter but looking at the current crop there is a cold theme showing I think into mid march. Of course the Sun is rising and strengthening but it looks to me like the type of weather that could still be wintry at times with plenty of hail showers and thunder possible with big cloudscapes . Possible white ridges on Mountains at times with the odd bit of white to lower levels perhaps if those charts for around +240 hrs were to verify. Entering a new phase of weather, the warm southerlies will be thing of the past rather quickly, colder nights and tons of fresh cold air in off the Atlantic.
Another folly to chase or the real thing !
Time will tell.
GFS similar.
0 -
ECM 12Z looking unsettled especially next weekend , showing a series of depressions being whipped by a very strong jet . ATM these are showing up towards the Northern end of the country and can and do drift North away from Ireland but at least looks windy and wet and with low uppers a share of the time with fronts going through could be wintry at times also. Showing one very stormy period out at the end of the run but this is better viewed as a trend atm.
0 -
It seems Winter was delayed by 3 months, Cold Winter style conditions looks to be having it's revenge, with the mild sent it's bags packing.
Looks cold and wintry from next Sunday 10th of March to about the 16th of March with Ireland placed on the cold side of the jetstream.
Potential for unsettled and wintry conditions beginning next Sunday. Snow looks possible, especially over high ground.
0 -
-
-
Advertisement
-
-
Yeah again the ECM looks very windy and wet with what looks like wintry interludes at times from early next weekend. Numerous LP's being spun out of the very lively Jet which varies f
rom lying over us to below us and currently looks like patterns of alternating abrupt plunges of milder moisture laden airmas to cold or very cold upper airmas sweeping over us as the weekend progresses into the early days of the following week. Has the look of wintry weather all right as Gonzo said above especially around the 11 -12th.
GFS is showing very disturbed weather this Sat / Sun with a direct hit from a nasty looking storm ( ECM not showing it as strong or the same track so big uncertainty and would lean more towards the ECM ) but with the Jet that fast over us the weekend coming it is too early to know any exact details at this stage only that there is potential for very windy /wet /wintry and possibly thundery weather.
GEM also showing unsettled conditions.
850 hPa winds
0 -
-
-
A cold spell still looking likely from next Sunday, but maybe not as intense as what was showing yesterday. Still looks wintry for first half of next week. After Saint Patricks Day there are signs that things could settle down nicely and become much milder, even warm with high pressure. This is a long way off, but it would be nice to get a few settled and pleasantly mild or warm days.
0 -
A cold spell still looking likely from next Sunday, but maybe not as intense as what was showing yesterday. Still looks wintry for first half of next week. After Saint Patricks Day there are signs that things could settle down nicely and become much milder, even warm with high pressure. This is a long way off, but it would be nice to get a few settled and pleasantly mild or warm days.
Can't post pics but the same GFS 6z has Paddys weekend as being very cold indeed. -6 and -8 uppers widely over the weekend.0 -
-
-
-
Advertisement
-
-
Rather amusingly, GFS is going for more or less a repeat of the snow event last Sunday, for next Monday night. It wants a rapidly developing low pressure system to cross across the very south of the country and with almost the same trajectory as last Sundays event. More or less a carbon copy of last Sundays event except in this case, snow would be falling at night which would result in a rush hour disaster the next morning. Take this with a massive pinch of salt as it's unlikely to become reality. Having said that, it happened a few days ago!
0 -
-
Artane2002 wrote: »99.9999% won't happen but imagine if this perturbation came off
Is it just me who can't see it?0 -
Surprisingly, the 12z GFS run continues the theme with a low pressure deepening extremely rapidly as it passes from SW to NE, just off the south coast. It's track is a bit further south in this latest run but that's probably not a bad thing as GFS tends to correct low systems further north as T -0 gets close, especially when it concerns such a rapidly developing system on the approach.
850 hPa temps look good for Ireland:
Low level winds look about as favourable as can be for most parts, especially considering the power of the rapidly developing storm. The wind pattern looks remarkably similar to what we had for the snow event last Sunday:
Temperatures look very similar to last Sunday too. Could be a rain/snow mix at times but potential for a decent bit of wet snow:
Forecast Precipitation, including the hatched areas where there is a risk of snow:
And finally, projected snow depths. Kinda pointless looking at any sort of detail with these this far out. In fact, don't take any of this particularly seriously. I just find it fascinating how remarkably similar the forecasted event looks to last Sunday.
0 -
-
Advertisement
-
-
-
-
-
tonights GFS run shows no let up in the unsettled conditions right up to the end of FI.
The next week looks very windy and potentially stormy at times. UKMO in particular looks very windy on Tuesday with more of a direct hit for Ireland.
0 -
Advertisement
-
-
-
-
-
Well I posted in the Spring discussion thread that there may be some light at the end of the tunnel for those who would like some drier and warmer conditions.
There continues to be these signals starting next week with high pressure ascending from the south though timing and position will obviously be impossible to tell.
GFS 18z shows the high pressure just to the south of us at times but at other times over us with the jet stream being pushed northwards if maybe a bit close for comfort to delivering great sunshine to the north.
Chart for +210 hrs away showing high pressure centred around the Bay of Biscay drawing in milder west to southwesterly winds over Ireland and maybe a fair amount of cloud at first. These winds become more southeasterly a few days following it and the run has a lot of high pressure after this.
ECM 12z delayed the ascendance of the high to our shores but it gets there in the end with the prospect for good spells of sunshine and mild/warm temperatures.
CFSv2 continues to project high pressure dominating during the final week of March and into April.
It's all a long way off and this is the Fantasy Island thread after all so pure speculation. If these signs continue though, we should see the weather ushering in a drier and calmer spell towards the second half of this month. As the saying goes, March comes in like a lion, goes out like a lamb.
EDIT: Just noticed that this is a Winter FI charts thread?Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/
Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1
0 -
-
-
More signs of the weather settling down by this time next week onwards from the ensembles of both the GFS and ECM.
ECM clusters show high pressure establishing over us is currently the most favoured option (cluster #1) with cluster #3 also similar but maybe much more of a chance of sunny spells with #3 as #1 looks cloudy in nature. Cluster #2 is more unsettled but not a total washout and similar to M.T.'s forecast. Cluster #3 looks like one that would produce unusually warm temperatures if it were to verify but that's the least likely option out of the 3 right now.
GEFS looks like a cloudier scenario with the jet stream fairly close by but conditions generally on the dry side with high pressure laying just to the south of us.
Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/
Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1
0 -
sryanbruen wrote: »More signs of the weather settling down by this time next week onwards from the ensembles of both the GFS and ECM.
ECM clusters show high pressure establishing over us is currently the most favoured option (cluster #1) with cluster #3 also similar but maybe much more of a chance of sunny spells with #3 as #1 looks cloudy in nature. Cluster #2 is more unsettled but not a total washout and similar to M.T.'s forecast. Cluster #3 looks like one that would produce unusually warm temperatures if it were to verify but that's the least likely option out of the 3 right now.
GEFS looks like a cloudier scenario with the jet stream fairly close by but conditions generally on the dry side with high pressure laying just to the south of us.
Some week I picked for the South of Spain. If this comes off then it'll probably be a wash out down there0 -
-
Advertisement
-
-
-
-
-
Agree, good summers seem to be extremely rare after warm springs. Hopefully April will be cool and unsettled.While it’s lovely to get nice weather in March...If I had to choose between a high pressure in March or one in June/July, it’d pick the summer every time. I don’t think a settled spell in late March bodes well for the summer going on previous years...but I am open to being corrected on that ��
High pressure in March is like northern blocking in November - you hope its a sign of things to come for winter but deep down you know its coming too early and is just a complete waste!
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/archives/2018112000/ECM1-0.GIF?000 -
looks like we should get a bit of a respite from all the rain soon enough, with slightly less unsettled conditions after this weekend.
Latest ensembles shows Dublin area getting much less rain from Monday onwards with high pressure becoming more of an influence, along with milder temperatures. We could do with a change as this has been mostly a wet, cold and miserable month so far.0 -
Please be true, I need to get gardening. 
This discussion has been closed.
Advertisement