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Storm Ciara - Strong Winds & Potential Snow **TECHNICAL DISCUSSION**

24567…22

Comments

  • #52
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,959 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    next week seems to be trending slightly colder with every run. Storm Ciara is mostly about the wind, but is a rather long event and is bringing with it some proper cold air too. I've watched the temperatures at 850hpa get as far as -5 over the past few days, but now they are heading towards the -10C range, which is impressive for cold zonal Atlantic weather. This isn't too far from a northerly/easterly in terms of upper air temperatures.

    Monday see's the uppers dropping like a stone. On Sunday night, early hours of Monday morning we see cold uppers moving in.

    12_84_ukthickness850.png?cb=2

    Rush hour/Monday morning see's the uppers dropping to -5 or -6C across the country. We haven't seen these for quite for time.

    12_93_ukthickness850.png?cb=2

    By Monday evening, uppers of -7C widely across the country. By this stage most precipitation would be sleet, hail, graupal or snow.

    12_102_ukthickness850.png?cb=2

    Tuesday morning see's the -9C uppers in parts of the midlands and Leinster. Hopefully there will be moisture overhead as anything that falls would most likely be of snow.

    12_117_ukthickness850.png?cb=2

    The very cold uppers last till Wednesday morning
    12_141_ukthickness850.png?cb=2

    Wednesday see's the uppers becoming milder as the day goes on, back to -1 or -2C uppers, we would be looking at cold rain or sleet by this stage, but this return to mild is very short lived.

    Wednesday night into Thursday morning see's the uppers dropping fast once again, and -7 or -8C across the country.

    12_165_ukthickness850.png?cb=2

    Friday brings back the mild with uppers heading back quickly into positive values. So potentially 3 to 4 days of wintry weather next week. Impressive stuff in terms of cold uppers from a westerly. No doubt high ground in the west and northwest in particular could see a plastering next week.


  • #53
    Asitis2019
    Closed Accounts Posts: 296 ✭✭Asitis2019


    M.T. Cranium wrote: »
    A thread is coming about storm Ciara. Check back in a few minutes and I will have this introductory post somewhat more filled out with an overview of what looks like being a long-duration and complex event. I have posted a LEVEL 1 tag for the storm now because I am about 99.9% certain it will get at least that and most likely a LEVEL 2 designation eventually.

    There will be three phases to this storm.

    A rather brief but intense period of strong winds seems likely by late Saturday as a leading wave hits the west coast. Winds may peak at about 70 to 120 km/hr during this phase with a brief interval of heavy rain possible.

    The "main event" will arrive on Sunday as the depression actually tagged as storm "Ciara" moves east to the north of Ulster towards northwest Scotland. This will involve a fairly long-duration blast of strong winds from the west, but perhaps a more severe impact in terms of elevated sea states leading to battering waves and coastal inundations (as usual Galway Bay in the firing line for this but generally all parts of the west and possibly south coasts). I could imagine this phase being mainly 70 to 110 km/hr winds with some intervals as strong as 90 to 130 km/hr locally, but it's more about the long duration than the peak gusts with Ciara.

    A third phase will be falling temperatures and continued strong winds with a trailing wave likely to pass to our north on Monday, allowing the squally showers already in progress to become increasingly wintry through the day on Monday. This may actually continue for much of Tuesday with some chance for heavy snowfall accumulations on some higher terrain in Connacht and west Ulster and on hills elsewhere too. Once again this phase may involve mainly 70 to 110 km/hr speeds but could ramp up towards Monday evening to 80 to 130 km/hr.

    I may expand this post but feel free to "have at it" and I will rely on moderators to change the tag (LEVEL "x") in sync with the Met service who have an excellent commentary available in their forecast section. There is such widespread model consensus that I think the discussion will be mainly about details and inevitably the red/orange debate will probably arise, I would say even at this early stage, red might verify in terms of coastal impacts not so much from the intensity of the winds as the long duration combined with the coastal flooding factor. But for now we'll be conservative and start off with a LEVEL ONE tag so that Boards readers know something bad cometh this way.

    Note: There may be a yellow (LEVEL ONE) warning associated with a weaker system timed to move through on Friday afternoon and evening. This will be separate from the above complex storm event and may briefly get its own little discussion thread, but if not, just in general be aware that Friday's outcome will be independent of the evolution of storm Ciara and if it fizzles or gets stronger, not likely to be a "trend" in terms of how Ciara might perform.

    I have added in some wind speed thoughts to my first posting above, otherwise this will have to do to get us started, Meteorite and some others are the pros at posting graphics so rather than having me fumbling around with that, I imagine they will go for the jugular as soon as some good solid guidance becomes available.

    Will you go wan now and get out of the park ---

    Summary - a bit of wind, rain, and a few isolated snowflakes in those far hills.

    I'm absolutely sick of seeing these warnings - they mean nothing, and I pay not attention to them.


  • #54
    ZX7R
    Registered Users Posts: 3,428 ✭✭✭ZX7R


    Asitis2019 wrote: »
    Will you go wan now and get out of the park ---

    Summary - a bit of wind, rain, and a few isolated snowflakes in those far hills.

    I'm absolutely sick of seeing these warnings - they mean nothing, and I pay not attention to them.


    And so it begins........
    The whinging......


  • #55
    kadman
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators Posts: 5,124 Mod ✭✭✭✭kadman


    Asitis2019 wrote: »
    Will you go wan now and get out of the park ---

    Summary - a bit of wind, rain, and a few isolated snowflakes in those far hills.

    I'm absolutely sick of seeing these warnings - they mean nothing, and I pay not attention to them.

    I think MT's previous posts, speak for themselves in their accuracy.


  • #56
    Asitis2019
    Closed Accounts Posts: 296 ✭✭Asitis2019


    kadman wrote: »
    I think MT's previous posts, speak for themselves in their accuracy.

    It is NOT going to happen. It is always a big build up, and then never comes.

    People need to know this, which is why I felt compelled to intervene in such matters.


  • #57
    Logan Roy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 452 ✭✭Logan Roy


    Please don't feed the trolls


  • #58
    Rodar08
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 280 ✭✭Rodar08


    Asitis2019 wrote: »
    Will you go wan now and get out of the park ---

    Summary - a bit of wind, rain, and a few isolated snowflakes in those far hills.

    I'm absolutely sick of seeing these warnings - they mean nothing, and I pay not attention to them.

    Ah but alas, attention indeed you have paid. And the Godfather in the process dissed. Shall not forget your name will we, Asitis2019.


  • #59
    Asitis2019
    Closed Accounts Posts: 296 ✭✭Asitis2019


    Here is the official forecast for ME today

    The early days of next week are likely to remain very unsettled, with generally strong winds, and potentially stormy conditions at times along with high seas. There will be spells of heavy rain interspaced with cold showery conditions, some of the showers turning wintry at times and some possibly with hail and thunder. Temperatures are likely to remain below average early next week with some overnight frosts expected also.

    So, in summary:
    - A bit of wind
    - A bit of rain
    - A bit of sleet on high ground

    Normal February conditions. The ones that are trolling are the ones spouting this nonsense.


  • #60
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,066 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Asitis2019 wrote: »
    It is NOT going to happen. It is always a big build up, and then never comes.

    People need to know this, which is why I felt compelled to intervene in such matters.

    Mod Note: you have made your point loud and clear .
    I'm absolutely sick of seeing these warnings - they mean nothing, and I pay not attention to them.

    If you disagree so much don't bother posting in this thread again.


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  • #61
    typhoony
    Registered Users Posts: 1,536 ✭✭✭typhoony


    I can see another minor upgrade in cold uppers over the next couple of model runs, -8 or -9 is achievable and impressive, I don't think it can go much lower, the relatively mild Atlantic waters has a limiting factor.


  • #62
    Snow angel
    Registered Users Posts: 61 ✭✭Snow angel


    Asitis2019 wrote: »
    Here is the official forecast for ME today

    The early days of next week are likely to remain very unsettled, with generally strong winds, and potentially stormy conditions at times along with high seas. There will be spells of heavy rain interspaced with cold showery conditions, some of the showers turning wintry at times and some possibly with hail and thunder. Temperatures are likely to remain below average early next week with some overnight frosts expected also.

    So, in summary:
    - A bit of wind
    - A bit of rain
    - A bit of sleet on high ground

    Normal February conditions. The ones that are trolling are the ones spouting this nonsense.

    If you don’t wish to discuss weather please go elsewhere.


  • #63
    Asitis2019
    Closed Accounts Posts: 296 ✭✭Asitis2019


    Snow angel wrote: »
    If you don’t wish to discuss weather please go elsewhere.

    But I do....however, I deal in the truth...and I truly feel that this is pure trolling on their part. Mark my words snow angel your hopes will be dashed. Remember these words - the downgrade and the U-turn will come. It always does.


  • #64
    pauldry
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,174 ✭✭✭pauldry


    You're right. Now go away


  • #65
    SleetAndSnow
    Registered Users Posts: 4,693 ✭✭✭SleetAndSnow


    Asitis2019 wrote: »
    But I do....however, I deal in the truth...and I truly feel that this is pure trolling on their part. Mark my words snow angel your hopes will be dashed. Remember these words - the downgrade and the U-turn will come. It always does.

    you're most likely right, but let us just read the charts and see what they are saying since none of us can actually predict the future and we just base it off what we see :) If it downgrades as had happened, you can be sure we post the downgrades and work with those models then. Obviously when something interesting is showing on the weather people will be hyped in the weather forum.


  • #66
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    The 12Z ECM has lower winds now associated with Ciara on Sunday. The 100-metre chart from previous runs was showing a lot more gold (Force 12) south of the low and along the Muster coast, but that's gone now. This chart gives an idea of what gust will be likely as it has been found that the 10-metre gusts are very strongly correlated to the 140-metre mean speed. I would add a few knots to the charts below to account for the extra 40 metres, so gusts to about 60 knots are likely along west coasts. It won't be the strength but more the longevity of winds over the next week that will be the feature.

    Also, Monday and Tuesday still on for snow. The very strong westerly wind tipping the balance and limiting modification over the ocean. 850 temperatures below -20 °C coming out of the Labrador Sea only warming about 12-13 degrees on the way here, keeping thickness on the right side of marginal. I think those two days may prove to be more notable for many than Ciara itself.

    ecm0125_nat_100uv_mslp_2020020612_066.jpg

    ecm0125_nat_100uv_mslp_2020020612_072.jpg

    ecm0125_nat_4panel1_2020020612_120.png


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  • #67
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,066 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Asitis2019 wrote: »
    But I do....however, I deal in the truth...and I truly feel that this is pure trolling on their part. Mark my words snow angel your hopes will be dashed. Remember these words - the downgrade and the U-turn will come. It always does.


    Mod Note: Asitis see post https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=112466707&postcount=60


  • #68
    Lyan
    Registered Users Posts: 220 ✭✭Lyan


    This is the weather forum. For the discussion of weather and such. Are you suggesting the weather shouldn't be discussed here?


  • #69
    Asitis2019
    Closed Accounts Posts: 296 ✭✭Asitis2019


    Lyan wrote: »
    This is the weather forum. For the discussion of weather and such. Are you suggesting the weather shouldn't be discussed here?

    I'm suggesting, very strongly, that people cast severe doubt over these amateur forecasters prognosticating that there will be snow. The highest likelihood eventuality is that there will be zero snow for most people.

    These posters seem to gain a perverse satisfaction in making these predictions, knowing full well that the probability of the materializing is close to zero

    I would pay attention to these prognostications if they provided the probabilities. Instead probabilities are substituted by subjective interpretations that are deeply biased.

    I hope this clarifies matters -I care only for people not being misguided by posters who predict massive snowstorms and blizzards every two weeks.


  • #70
    froog
    Registered Users Posts: 3,784 ✭✭✭froog


    Asitis2019 wrote: »
    Will you go wan now and get out of the park ---

    Summary - a bit of wind, rain, and a few isolated snowflakes in those far hills.

    I'm absolutely sick of seeing these warnings - they mean nothing, and I pay not attention to them.

    you know this is the weather forum right?


  • #71
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,066 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Mod Note : Asitis2019 . You have recieved a warning, you been requested to move on ,told that you made your point, and told if you disagree do not post here, now you are trolling and goading for a negative response .

    Do not post in this thread again


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  • #72
    nthclare
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,315 ✭✭✭nthclare


    Question

    What is an upper lower temperature, can someone explain this in layman's terms?

    Thanks in advance.


  • #73
    Monkeynut
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 590 ✭✭✭Monkeynut


    Importantly how is this storm pronounced. The traditional Irish way of saying Ciara. Keeer rah

    Or the more modern way of American influence. Si air a.

    Will not sleep till I find out.


    But really how is the east looking. It's only Thursday I know, so I'd say we won't know best obviously till Saturdays runs. But anyway I'll still ask for people's own opinions on it.

    Thanks


  • #74
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,066 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Impressive rainfall totals up to Sunday night, coming in to spring tides over the weekend and into next week. Lot of run off and continuing very strong on shore winds into Mon with very high seas leading to possibility of coastal flooding.

    arpegeuk-25-79-0_ywr9.png

    nmmuk-25-72-0_fwr4.png

    hDvzft8.png

    JVGx5JH.jpg

    anim_egs5.gif


  • #75
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,066 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ARPEGE coming in to the more reliable time frame now for this model.

    ECM still looks the strongest winds gusting up around 110 to 120 km/h in places overland, widespread gusting to 100km/h, up to 120 - 130 km/h on coasts, ICON dropped wind speeds down a bit in the latest run. American still gusting 100 to 110Km/h overland.

    anim_rfz1.gif

    arpegeuk-52-76-0_ctc0.png

    iconeu_uk1-52-76-0_hdy1.png


  • #76
    tipperaryboy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 947 ✭✭✭tipperaryboy


    Likely to have any affect on Saturday Dublin flights?


  • #77
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,238 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Forecasts strongest gusts comparison between the 00z run and the more recent 12z run for Sunday morning. Defo a slight decline but track for now seems stable:

    00z
    RwcrVWW.png

    12z
    mPkwNPn.png

    Worth keeping in mind that the ECMWF has a habit of over bulling wind gust speed potential. The GFS, so far, seem to be the more conservative global model regarding these so it will be interesting to see which one ends up being closer to the ole mark.

    New Moon



  • #78
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,066 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Center a good bit further North on the latest run, can compare against yesterdays run. The models in general are not showing the winds in the high intensity i.e. 120 to 140 km/h as they were showing on earlier runs, but still a very windy day with prolonged strong winds for many.

    Will it continue to drift me North ? They often do but still a bit away yet for corrections either way.

    WuwrT7u.png

    gBbl7y3.png

    GBU42ZC.png

    ECU1-72_ugf2.GIF

    ECU1-96_rmg8.GIF


  • #79
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,238 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Meteorite58 wrote: »
    Center a good bit further North on the latest run, can compare against yesterdays run. The models in general are not showing the winds in the high intensity i.e. 120 to 140 km/h as they were showing on earlier runs, but still a very windy day with prolonged strong winds for many.
    Still many options on the table this evening, but less spread than earlier runs so things are very slowly being nailed down.

    mEHxcig.png

    New Moon



  • #80
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,238 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Really hate when we see a little something of interest like this on the models being so far out. We still have 3 days to till Sunday which is a lifetime in model watching, and 3 days of anticipating the inevitable downgrades with each consecutive run... before they are even ran. Sure, it keeps us on our toes, but I'm getting to the stage now where I don't want to be on my toes. I want to put my feet up.

    New Moon



  • #81
    Donegal Storm
    Registered Users Posts: 2,023 ✭✭✭Donegal Storm


    Doesn't look like anything too noteworthy for me over the next few days, the longevity of the wet and windy weather is unusual but nothing particularly severe or interesting in the forecast. Expecting plenty of wind, rain and hail around here though so will certainly be a case of batten down the hatches, hopefully a few rumbles but thunder's been rarer than hens teeth in recent winters


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  • #82
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,066 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ECM at this early stage showing thunderstorm potential giving very heavy bursts of squally rain on Sunday.


  • #83
    typhoony
    Registered Users Posts: 1,536 ✭✭✭typhoony


    I see the lad from Weather Alerts Ireland is posting sensational stuff again on FB. Saying we've have an equivalent to a CAT2 hurricane arriving in Ireland. I think he needs to brush up on his wind speed comparisons, let alone the difference between sustained hurricane winds and gust speeds that we normally talk about, he's a muppet


  • #84
    Cork Boy 53
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,829 ✭✭✭Cork Boy 53


    Monkeynut wrote: »
    Importantly how is this storm pronounced. The traditional Irish way of saying Ciara. Keeer rah

    Or the more modern way of American influence. Si air a.

    Will not sleep till I find out.


    It`s the first option, Keeer rah to use your spelling. Sleep soundly now.


  • #85
    hawkwing
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,829 ✭✭✭hawkwing


    We will be watching weather porn for the next 2 weeks,titled "Wet,Wild and Raw" starring Ciara "Stormy" Daniels initially.:o It's free to air too.


  • #86
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    What a mess of a chart. Such a wide area of the NE Atlantic under very low pressure. High over Iberia means the NAO will be skyrocketing positive numbers.

    ukmo_nat_fax_2020020612_072.png

    I see that deep low is still on for between Iceland and Greenland tomorrow night. Now forecast to be around 933 hPa, but they had it down to 928 hPa earlier in the week.

    ukmo_nat_fax_2020020612_036.png


  • #87
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,897 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Keep an eye on this system Monday

    fax96s.gif?0

    This has snow potential for us.


  • #88
    Larbre34
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,354 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    Keep an eye on this system Monday

    fax96s.gif?0

    This has snow potential for us.

    You're not making allowance for modification in air mass.

    I see treacherous conditions with mountain blizzards but cold rain and stinging winds at all other levels for a few days, maybe some night time sleetyness.


  • #89
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    nthclare wrote: »
    Question

    What is an upper lower temperature, can someone explain this in layman's terms?

    Thanks in advance.

    Generally, "upper" temperatures refered to here are the temperature at the 850 hPa level (around 1200-1500 m above sea level). The temperature at this level gives an idea of how cold the airmass is and how likely snow will be, but there's a lot more to it than that. See here for more details.


  • #90
    kingshankly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,589 ✭✭✭kingshankly


    I generally judge the seriousness of the storm by the amount of pages on the topic and with only 6 pages for the Moment things probably not going to get too bad


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  • #91
    pauldry
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,174 ✭✭✭pauldry


    It's not here yet. Even 3 days of gusts of 100kph will cause damage due to longevity.


  • #92
    BLIZZARD7
    Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    Larbre34 wrote: »
    You're not making allowance for modification in air mass.

    I see treacherous conditions with mountain blizzards but cold rain and stinging winds at all other levels for a few days, maybe some night time sleetyness.

    A colder than normal north westerly this is, a tight gradient over the north Atlantic may mean less modification meaning we see more in the way of snow than is normal from this source...
    Definitely one to watch and I'd say some will be surprised with snow in the early days of next week. Betting knock beats its 10cm or whatever it got during that north westerly last time around.

    Some hope of the showers driving well inland and also to some lucky eastern areas at times. The wind chill will make it feel freezing everywhere.


  • #93
    Donegal Storm
    Registered Users Posts: 2,023 ✭✭✭Donegal Storm


    BLIZZARD7 wrote: »
    A colder than normal north westerly this is, a tight gradient over the north Atlantic may mean less modification meaning we see more in the way of snow than is normal from this source...
    Definitely one to watch and I'd say some will be surprised with snow in the early days of next week. Betting knock beats its 10cm or whatever it got during that north westerly last time around.

    Some hope of the showers driving well inland and also to some lucky eastern areas at times. The wind chill will make it feel freezing everywhere.

    Strong winds usually mean modified sea air gets further inland and also showers will be short lived and mainly hail along the west coast counties. Some areas will probably get a bit of slush for a while (similar to last week) but its not exactly something to get excited about

    Even the usually hopelessly optimistic GFS snow charts are only showing a temporary dusting

    102-780UK_hup3.GIF


  • #94
    squarecircles
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,101 ✭✭✭squarecircles


    Donegal Storm wrote: »
    Strong winds usually mean modified sea air gets further inland and also showers will be short lived and mainly hail along the west coast counties. Some areas will probably get a bit of slush for a while (similar to last week) but its not exactly something to get excited about

    Even the usually hopelessly optimistic GFS snow charts are only showing a temporary dusting

    102-780UK_hup3.GIF

    Slush? , there were coverings of snow across the west last week.


  • #95
    BLIZZARD7
    Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    Donegal Storm wrote: »
    Strong winds usually mean modified sea air gets further inland and also showers will be short lived and mainly hail along the west coast counties. Some areas will probably get a bit of slush for a while (similar to last week) but its not exactly something to get excited about

    Even the usually hopelessly optimistic GFS snow charts are only showing a temporary dusting

    102-780UK_hup3.GIF

    That's assuming that the air that gets to the coastline is heavily modified by the time it arrives (as is usual) - given the extremely cold source I'm saying it wont have the usual time to modify over the Atlantic. -8/-9c 850hpa air is rare enough coming in from the west, at this time of year it should be all snow at those temperatures. Time will tell but I'd say quite a few areas will end up with more than 'slush'.

    I'd ignore those GFS snow charts altogether regardless of that they show to be honest.


  • #96
    Graces7
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    Well. you have had an interesting time since I went abed last night...

    This storm will hit the Canadian coast first so I will get bulletins from family in Newfoundland and BC coast. Forecast is dire there. My family now have a mechanical digging machine at their door..

    BC has thawed so they are very wet.

    Grateful for warnings here; always a case of prepare for the worst surely. Although conceptions of "worst" and " best" are... different in the snow-loving weather forum ;)

    Bitterly cold already here tonight, so my preparations will include putting ALL the winter blankets etc back on the bed.... making a huge pan of chicken soup.... well -equipped out here so even if the gas pipes freeze ( oh, will lag them also...) I have a camping stove and cartridges.

    If it is less than forecast, nothing lost. A useful exercise is preparation.

    Supplies came in yesterday; the ferry folk are canny, and that actually made it very real for me.

    "Cry havoc and let loose the dogs and snow!"


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  • #97
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,583 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Quite a strong trailing wave on the ECM for Monday evening and overnight, at that point could be very wintry on higher ground in all regions, rather mixed closer to sea level where most people live, but feeling very cold in a piercing wind.

    Seeing a bit of a range of outcomes for Sunday, mostly differences in exact timing rather than different peak winds. Will probably be worst in the morning, relenting slightly for Sunday afternoon-evening then ramping up again during Monday.

    Not convinced that the models have a really good handle on this complex situation yet, GEM for example has a belt of very strong upper level winds through the southern half of the country, south coast could be surprisingly blustery too.


  • #98
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Right. As some would say, squeaky bum time.

    Here’s details of the Galway 2020 event due to take place at the mouth of the Corrib. From their website:
    The official opening ceremony of Galway 2020 will take place in South Park at the Claddagh on the 8th February 2020 at 5pm with gates open from 4pm. Crowds of up to 50,000 spectators are expected at the event.

    The two-hour launch will raise the curtain for Galway’s European Capital of Culture year of events and will involve live music, pyrotechnics with fire and flame effects using a mixture of turf fires and gas flames. The ceremony will represent a timeless and authentic celebration of the people and traditions of Galway and Ireland, and will be delivered in a largescale dramatic explosion of sound and vision.

    Seven hand-carved steel sculptures, the town spheres, each reflecting the stories and traditions of the Galway town they represent (Clifden, An Spidéal, Tuam, Ballinasloe, Portumna, Athenry and Galway) will be transformed by flame into giant glowing orbs, and will light up the length of the Galway headland overlooking Galway Bay. Galway’s fleet of iconic traditional boats, the Galway hookers, will assemble illuminated in the bay.

    Spectators will view the launch from the green areas of South Park, with the spectacle located on the pathway close to the beach. A procession with fire and flames will start the event, leading into South Park (or ‘The Swamp’ as it is known locally) from the Claddagh Quay and Nimmo’s Pier.

    Gates open at 4pm and entertainment commences at 5pm with live performances by Róisín Elsafty, Amazing Apples and No Crows. Plan to arrive early to ensure you find a space and are ready for the main event which starts at 6pm. The approximate end time is 7.45pm.

    Can anyone give model-based details as to conditions that this event will encounter on Saturday, assuming they go ahead with it? (Believe me, they’re pig-headed enough to ignore Orange warnings!). As to where South Park is located, it’s right at the mouth of the Corrib, exposed to the coast in an arc from the South-West-South direction to roughly due East.

    Any other event I’d expect cancellation, but there’s been a lot invested in this, and a lot of negative comment that would get vindicated if this was put off. Temporary structures all over the park right now. Steel fencing, a stage with backing on it, two towercrane like towers hanging a metal structure between them with cables, smaller structures underneath, Signs on temporary two-leg steel pole structures.

    It sticks in my craw that this would need to be postponed or cancelled, but if it’s unsafe then it’s unsafe. The more detail about likely conditions at the time mentioned, in the location set, the better!


  • #99
    Graces7
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Right. As some would say, squeaky bum time.

    Here’s details of the Galway 2020 event due to take place at the mouth of the Corrib. From their website:



    Can anyone give model-based details as to conditions that this event will encounter on Saturday, assuming they go ahead with it? (Believe me, they’re pig-headed enough to ignore Orange warnings!). As to where South Park is located, it’s right at the mouth of the Corrib, exposed to the coast in an arc from the South-West-South direction to roughly due East.

    Any other event I’d expect cancellation, but there’s been a lot invested in this, and a lot of negative comment that would get vindicated if this was put off. Temporary structures all over the park right now. Steel fencing, a stage with backing on it, two towercrane like towers hanging a metal structure between them with cables, smaller structures underneath, Signs on temporary two-leg steel pole structures.

    It sticks in my craw that this would need to be postponed or cancelled, but if it’s unsafe then it’s unsafe. The more detail about likely conditions at the time mentioned, in the location set, the better!


    Love your enthusiasm ; may it be rewarded! And hoping the experts here will help .


  • #100
    km79
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 48,254 ✭✭✭✭km79


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    Right. As some would say, squeaky bum time.

    Here’s details of the Galway 2020 event due to take place at the mouth of the Corrib. From their website:



    Can anyone give model-based details as to conditions that this event will encounter on Saturday, assuming they go ahead with it? (Believe me, they’re pig-headed enough to ignore Orange warnings!). As to where South Park is located, it’s right at the mouth of the Corrib, exposed to the coast in an arc from the South-West-South direction to roughly due East.

    Any other event I’d expect cancellation, but there’s been a lot invested in this, and a lot of negative comment that would get vindicated if this was put off. Temporary structures all over the park right now. Steel fencing, a stage with backing on it, two towercrane like towers hanging a metal structure between them with cables, smaller structures underneath, Signs on temporary two-leg steel pole structures.

    It sticks in my craw that this would need to be postponed or cancelled, but if it’s unsafe then it’s unsafe. The more detail about likely conditions at the time mentioned, in the location set, the better!

    I know the area well having played many a soccer game vs West in The Swamp !
    It didn’t get it name for nothing as you know
    It’s going to be very wet and very windy
    That is an exposed area obviously and given what you have said about temporary structures etc I would say ye might be forced to cancel ........turnout is going to be way down anyway as it will be peeing rain and blowing a gale so it would be both sensible and prudent to rearrange if possible ?


  • #101
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,780 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    The hope is the front will speed up.

    Delaying the event a few hours could help.


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