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Brexit Impact on Northern Ireland

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    #212
    blanch152
    Registered Users Posts: 27,192 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    UDAWINNER wrote: »
    Amazes me that people will say kick the border poll down the road because of potential trouble with unionists. If a majority supports a border poll and if gets passed by 50+1%, that is it and that is democracy. Or are we gainst democracy when it does not suit. If they cause trouble, then use the police to batter them and some of them have the option to fcuk across the water if they don't want to live in a United Ireland and let them find out what the rest of the UK really thinks of them:)

    The end result could well be 50%+1 vote, that would be enough to pass it.

    However, the SoS will only hold a poll when it is likely to be passed. That would imply indicators well beyond 50%+1 vote. At the moment, the most recent opinion poll has shown that support for a united Ireland has dropped by more than 3% in the last year since a similar poll carried out by the same company.

    Until that opinion poll is showing more than 50% and rising, the conversation won't begin. It would also have to be accompanied by a Nationalist majority in Stormont. What would be useful if politicians (and posters on anonymous internet sites) at least started discussion the conditions they believe necessary for a poll likely to pass.


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    #213
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users Posts: 66,853 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    blanch152 wrote: »
    The end result could well be 50%+1 vote, that would be enough to pass it.

    However, the SoS will only hold a poll when it is likely to be passed.

    That is factually wrong. The SoS can call a poll at any time.

    https://sluggerotoole.com/2021/01/24/a-border-poll-can-be-held-at-any-time-redux/


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    #214
    blanch152
    Registered Users Posts: 27,192 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    FrancieBrady wrote: »
    That is factually wrong. The SoS can call a poll at any time.

    https://sluggerotoole.com/2021/01/24/a-border-poll-can-be-held-at-any-time-redux/
    blanch152 wrote: »

    However, the SoS will only hold a poll when it is likely to be passed. .

    Technically, you are correct, that the SOS can call a poll at any time. However, I expressed an opinion that he will only hold a poll when it is likely to be passed. Anything else would be a breach of the GFA, be acting in bad faith, and would be divisive. That is not the way to run anywhere.


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    #215
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users Posts: 66,853 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    blanch152 wrote: »
    Technically, you are correct, that the SOS can call a poll at any time. However, I expressed an opinion that he will only hold a poll when it is likely to be passed. Anything else would be a breach of the GFA, be acting in bad faith, and would be divisive. That is not the way to run anywhere.

    A border poll by it's nature will be divisive just as not having one will be divisive if the support is there. There can be no breach of the GFA as the McCord case showed. The SoS does not have to justify why he/she decides nor set critieria - something the present incumbent has just reiterated.
    So he/she could call one when it is politically expedient for the Tories or Lab or as a response to a request from Dublin etc. We know how the Tories run things after all.


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    #216
    20silkcut
    Registered Users Posts: 2,543 ✭✭✭20silkcut


    UDAWINNER wrote: »
    Amazes me that people will say kick the border poll down the road because of potential trouble with unionists. If a majority supports a border poll and if gets passed by 50+1%, that is it and that is democracy. Or are we gainst democracy when it does not suit. If they cause trouble, then use the police to batter them and some of them have the option to fcuk across the water if they don't want to live in a United Ireland and let them find out what the rest of the UK really thinks of them:)

    Batter 850,000 of them? That’s basically a civil war 2.0


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    #217
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users Posts: 66,853 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    20silkcut wrote: »
    Batter 850,000 of them? That’s basically a civil war 2.0

    A tiny fraction of that number will try to cause trouble against extreme odds. A British government intent on making a UI work and an Irish government the same. The whole rest of the EU and the Americans also.

    If they were to mount a campaign capable of destabilising any constitutuional change they would first have to arm and equip themselves to do that. And to achieve what?

    You'll get 100,000 marching in protest and then they will go home and do, what the evidence since the Anglo Irish Agreement suggests...get on with it.


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    #218
    breezy1985
    Registered Users Posts: 24,365 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    FrancieBrady wrote: »
    A tiny fraction of that number will try to cause trouble against extreme odds. A British government intent on making a UI work and an Irish government the same. The whole rest of the EU and the Americans also.

    If they were to mount a campaign capable of destabilising any constitutuional they would be first have to arm and equip themselves to do that. And to achieve what?

    You'll get 100,000 marching in protest and then they will go home and do, what the evidence since the Anglo Irish Agreement suggests...get on with it.

    I don't think a UI will be the same as NI in the UK anyway. Nationalists always had the possible tangible dream of a United Ireland to fight for where as once a single island country happens what will be left to fight for. There will be no hope of a return to a UK that doesn't want them and thinks all the "Paddy's" are the same anyway and the only fight left will be to cling to an Irish devolution


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    #219
    Podge_irl
    Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 25,295 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    FrancieBrady wrote: »
    A border poll by it's nature will be divisive just as not having one will be divisive if the support is there. There can be no breach of the GFA as the McCord case showed. The SoS does not have to justify why he/she decides nor set critieria - something the present incumbent has just reiterated.

    They also don't have to call one even if it appears overwhelmingly supported by the same logic.

    The current govt won't call a border poll and nor, I imagine, will any UK govt unless there is significantly more than 50% support over a sustained period.


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    #220
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 7,712 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    blanch152 wrote: »
    It isn't the job of any police force to batter protestors.

    Should be.


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    #221
    Del.Monte
    Registered Users Posts: 12,363 ✭✭✭✭Del.Monte


    Sam Russell wrote: »
    Before any referendum, it has to be certain that the centre ground will vote for it, otherwise a close result either way would be disaster.

    The moderate Unionist must be in favour, as must the Nationalists. It must be clear that they will all be secure in a United Ireland, with no downsides.


    I think you have answered your own point here. A Unionist is someone who believes in the union with GB not the Republic and like turkeys they aren't going to vote for Christmas.

    ****



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    #222
    blanch152
    Registered Users Posts: 27,192 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Podge_irl wrote: »
    They also don't have to call one even if it appears overwhelmingly supported by the same logic.

    The current govt won't call a border poll and nor, I imagine, will any UK govt unless there is significantly more than 50% support over a sustained period.

    This is the point lost on those calling for a border poll.

    They ignore the fact that support for a united Ireland has dropped by over 3% in a year.


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    #223
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users Posts: 66,853 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Del.Monte wrote: »
    I think you have answered your own point here. A Unionist is someone who believes in the union with GB not the Republic and like turkeys they aren't going to vote for Christmas.

    You can opt not to be a Unionist. I know several Unionist farmers around here...Westminster and the Queen can sling their hook before they'll put their land under threat would sum up their current opinions.


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    #224
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 7,712 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    FrancieBrady wrote: »
    You can opt not to be a Unionist. I know several Unionist farmers around here...Westminster and the Queen can sling their hook before they'll put their land under threat would sum up their current opinions.

    I know plenty of ‘nationalists’ that are happy to stay put in the UK too so long as they don’t have to pay a GP and pay low tax/insurance for the cheaper car.


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    #225
    Wilhelm III
    Closed Accounts Posts: 105 ✭✭Wilhelm III


    Del.Monte wrote: »
    I think you have answered your own point here. A Unionist is someone who believes in the union with GB not the Republic and like turkeys they aren't going to vote for Christmas.
    A moderate... Protestant then, somebody who is traditionally Unionist - but sees and accepts that the 'mainland' does not give one single sh*t about them, and thinks to themselves 'well, do you know what - what the hell do we have to lose?'.


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    #226
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users Posts: 66,853 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    ReginaldSmythV wrote: »
    I know plenty of ‘nationalists’ that are happy to stay put in the UK too so long as they don’t have to pay a GP and play low tax for the cheaper car.

    Absolutely. But if Unionists can be convinced I think they would be easier.


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    #227
    Sam Russell
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,362 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    Remember, Loyalists are loyal to the Crown, but more so to the half-crown.

    Money talks, and Brexit will mean money missing from NI, while a UI will mean money and FDI coming to NI - from Dublin, GB, USA, and the EU.

    If it is obvious that following a vote for UI that the economy will boom, then UI might become unstoppable.


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    #228
    Podge_irl
    Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 25,295 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    I would be pretty loathe to subscribe to the idea that potential economic prosperity will drive Unionists towards the concept of a United Ireland when I don't think anyone would realistically expect the opposite to have held true in the 70s. Among the younger cohort maybe, but identity is strong in NI and there are plenty who will accept their current situation over potential greater economic values in a UI. Not least because it would not be universal - the HSCNI (NHS) would be a big loss to them for example, as well as the massive subventions and huge public sector.


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    #229
    Sam Russell
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,362 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    Podge_irl wrote: »
    I would be pretty loathe to subscribe to the idea that potential economic prosperity will drive Unionists towards the concept of a United Ireland when I don't think anyone would realistically expect the opposite to have held true in the 70s. Among the younger cohort maybe, but identity is strong in NI and there are plenty who will accept their current situation over potential greater economic values in a UI. Not least because it would not be universal - the HSCNI (NHS) would be a big loss to them for example, as well as the massive subventions and huge public sector.

    The economy will be a factor in any campaign for a UI.


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    #230
    cgcsb
    Registered Users Posts: 9,275 ✭✭✭cgcsb


    Unionists won't be swayed by economic arguments. After all they are unionists despite NI being currently part of the UK and also one of Europe's poorest regions. They have an infinite capability for mental gymnastics to get around simple logic. For example they'll probably tell you that NI being a destitute region is SF's fault (or sometimes as the result of a secret plot by the ROI governmenr) or when it comes to economics they'll simply point to the cost of living in NI being lower (and ignore the vast difference in incomes and general prosperity indicators). Wasting your time, waiting a decade for more to die of old age is a more productive use of time.

    Unionism will just be defeated in numbers, they won't be bargained with or come to some settlement early on. They mostly voted against the GFA and mostly voted for Brexit. It's not a rational cohort you're talking about.

    As for unionist terrorism in a UI, that ship has sailed. The unionist paramilitaries have no offensive capability, they did to some extent in the 1970s and early 80s but only under the strict guidance and supervision of the RUC and UK agencies. Also if groups want to recruit people they need some sort of semi-credible goal. The IRA had a united Ireland as a goal. Unionist groups post UI would fight for what exactly? an independent Antrim(ex. Belfast)?


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    #231
    Seth Brundle
    Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 38,857 Mod ✭✭✭✭Seth Brundle


    cgcsb wrote: »
    Unionists won't be swayed by economic arguments. After all they are unionists despite NI being currently part of the UK and also one of Europe's poorest regions.
    So why did so many of them sign up for Irish passports?
    "Everyone has their price!" Unionists are no different and can be bought under the right circumstances!


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    #232
    Podge_irl
    Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 25,295 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    Sam Russell wrote: »
    The economy will be a factor in any campaign for a UI.

    Of course it will be a factor. It is a factor in the Scottish Independence campaign, but its worth noting that polling there suggests a majority think independence will be bad for them economically, but a majority still want independence.

    It is an issue of identity for a large portion of the population. I do not think we would be expecting Republicans to be happy to stay part of the UK if it seemed better economically.


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    #233
    Podge_irl
    Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 25,295 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    Seth Brundle wrote: »
    So why did so many of them sign up for Irish passports?
    "Everyone has their price!" Unionists are no different and can be bought under the right circumstances!

    Because they can get them for free (politically) and they don't entail any renunciation of their unionism.


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    #234
    UDAWINNER
    Registered Users Posts: 860 ✭✭✭UDAWINNER


    blanch152 wrote: »
    It isn't the job of any police force to batter protestors.
    it's their job to prevent people breaking the law and if batons, rubber bullets need to be used, so be it


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    #235
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users Posts: 66,853 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Podge_irl wrote: »
    Of course it will be a factor. It is a factor in the Scottish Independence campaign, but its worth noting that polling there suggests a majority think independence will be bad for them economically, but a majority still want independence.

    It is an issue of identity for a large portion of the population. I do not think we would be expecting Republicans to be happy to stay part of the UK if it seemed better economically.

    There would be some on both sides who would rather starve, but there is definitely degrees of faithfulness to identities.


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    #236
    Podge_irl
    Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 25,295 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    FrancieBrady wrote: »
    There would be some on both sides who would rather starve, but there is definitely degrees of faithfulness to identities.

    For sure, but its not like the alternative option is starving. It is an unsure prediction of better economic future. It's a more difficult argument to make then I think some people are portraying. When you look at the likes of farmers in NI, the last few months will have done nothing to engender them to the UK I'm sure. The current situation definitely bolsters the argument for a UI, but it will never be a purely economic decision.


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    #237
    cgcsb
    Registered Users Posts: 9,275 ✭✭✭cgcsb


    Seth Brundle wrote: »
    So why did so many of them sign up for Irish passports?
    "Everyone has their price!" Unionists are no different and can be bought under the right circumstances!

    Is this true though? It seems that only about half of the NI population have an Irish passport. I'd expect the vast majority of them are the nationalist half.

    https://factcheckni.org/articles/do-more-than-700000-born-in-northern-ireland-have-an-irish-passport/


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    #238
    Sam Russell
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,362 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    Podge_irl wrote: »
    Because they can get them for free (politically) and they don't entail any renunciation of their unionism.

    Joining a UI does not mean (necessarily) renouncing their unionism - just changing its thrust. Remember (not literally) that 100 years ago, Unionist dropped their opposition to Home Rule when it became Home Rule by Belfast rather than Home Rule by Dublin.

    Some things need sorting, eg NHS vs HSE, PSNI vs Gardai, car prices and taxes, social welfare rates, public sector employment, etc etc. If they aer asked, they might come up with answers they may like, and are acceptable generally.

    Unionists would be more concerned with the level of autonomy they will have.


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    #239
    Del.Monte
    Registered Users Posts: 12,363 ✭✭✭✭Del.Monte


    cgcsb wrote: »
    Is this true though? It seems that only about half of the NI population have an Irish passport. I'd expect the vast majority of them are the nationalist half.

    https://factcheckni.org/articles/do-more-than-700000-born-in-northern-ireland-have-an-irish-passport/




    Please don't let facts get in the way of pro-unity propaganda.

    ****



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    #240
    storker
    Registered Users Posts: 5,644 ✭✭✭storker


    Amirani wrote: »
    Remember the uproar about the RIC commemoration? We'd be having loads of unpopular commemorations.

    How would people feel about having an official holiday on the 12th of July and Orange bands marching down O'Connell Street?

    Just move St. Patrick's Day to the 12th of July. Double parades for double the fun.

    :D


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    #241
    Del.Monte
    Registered Users Posts: 12,363 ✭✭✭✭Del.Monte


    Sam Russell wrote: »
    Remember, Loyalists are loyal to the Crown, but more so to the half-crown.

    Money talks, and Brexit will mean money missing from NI, while a UI will mean money and FDI coming to NI - from Dublin, GB, USA, and the EU.

    If it is obvious that following a vote for UI that the economy will boom, then UI might become unstoppable.


    Another tired old Republican cliche.

    ****



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