Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie

Brexit Impact on Northern Ireland

Options
1457910107

Comments

  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,429 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    20silkcut wrote: »
    Yes it would have to be an unbiased representation of the population.

    Interestingly enough in the wisdom of the crowd theory answers are more accurate when extremely wrong answers are included to calculate the average answer.
    So having people with extreme views on the CA is probably no bad thing

    As long as those with extreme views do not shout everyone else down - as in the BBC Question Time programme. Also the choice of participants must be unbiased - even if those chosen are not.

    Diverse opening views are fine - even extreme ones - as long as open dialogue is kept going and views are open to being changed.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,555 ✭✭✭20silkcut


    As long as those with extreme views do not shout everyone else down - as in the BBC Question Time programme. Also the choice of participants must be unbiased - even if those chosen are not.

    Diverse opening views are fine - even extreme ones - as long as open dialogue is kept going and views are open to being changed.

    I suppose the theory I’m talking is more mathematical.
    You can’t really take a bunch of diverse views and divide them to get an average view.
    Or maybe you can.

    Jury’s function on unanimous decisions.
    How does the CA work? Do they vote on issues


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,429 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    20silkcut wrote: »
    I suppose the theory I’m talking is more mathematical.
    You can’t really take a bunch of diverse views and divide them to get an average view.
    Or maybe you can.

    Jury’s function on unanimous decisions.
    How does the CA work? Do they vote on issues

    As I understand the process - I was not a participant nor do I know anyone who was - 100 people were selected by a polling company to be representative. A chairman was selected - in our case it was a retired supreme court judge.

    There were plenary sessions where subjects were gone through using experts from all sides. Then the sessions broke out to ten groups of ten, each with a facilitator whose job was to lead the discussion or to act as a moderator so that the discussion did not go down rabbit holes. These breakout groups would make proposals, and these were consolidated into motions that were voted on, and these formed the basis of the final report.

    So there was voting, and there were sub-group discussions, and plenary group discussions as the ideas were distilled down to firm proposals.

    It was amazingly successful in putting forward a firm proposal that eventually was accepted in a constitutional referendum.


  • Registered Users Posts: 27,277 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    In the poll published in tomorrow's Times, it is 42% for United Ireland, 47% against and 11% don't know, with a majority of under 45s favouring unity. Nothing too radical there, however there is a question as to whether people would welcome a United Ireland, and this is 47/47. This suggests that the "don't knows" are very open to persuasion, if they get the right answers from the proposals.
    Northern Irish voters also think there will be a united Ireland within 10 years by a margin of 48 per cent to 44 per cent. This reflects that the 47% who welcome a UI would be 50% in that period, given the age profile.

    As for the flag, the present one seems fine to me, but if a change it needed
    csm_green-flag-with-harp_b74693c80e.jpg

    The thing that is missing from your analysis is the change from the year before.

    https://thedetail.tv/articles/a-majority-favour-a-border-poll-on-the-island-of-ireland-in-the-next-10-years

    Last year 45.4% would vote for a united Ireland, this has now dropped to 42%, which is a change greater than the margin of error. Support for the union has stayed steady or slightly increased from 46.8% to 47%, meaning that the gap in favour of maintaining the union has increased from 1.4% to 5%, again greater than the margin of error.

    Rather than the sensationalist headlines over the weekend, support for a united Ireland is actually decreasing in the North.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,429 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    blanch152 wrote: »
    The thing that is missing from your analysis is the change from the year before.

    https://thedetail.tv/articles/a-majority-favour-a-border-poll-on-the-island-of-ireland-in-the-next-10-years

    Last year 45.4% would vote for a united Ireland, this has now dropped to 42%, which is a change greater than the margin of error. Support for the union has stayed steady or slightly increased from 46.8% to 47%, meaning that the gap in favour of maintaining the union has increased from 1.4% to 5%, again greater than the margin of error.

    Rather than the sensationalist headlines over the weekend, support for a united Ireland is actually decreasing in the North.

    The support will always depend on the details of the unification. As the current situation is unclear, and the future is even more so, I suggest a while longer might be worth the wait.


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 24,831 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    The support will always depend on the details of the unification. As the current situation is unclear, and the future is even more so, I suggest a while longer might be worth the wait.

    It would be a huge mistake to start getting excited at 51% then lose and end up where Scotland is now having all calls for a second ref shot down.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,555 ✭✭✭20silkcut


    blanch152 wrote: »
    The thing that is missing from your analysis is the change from the year before.

    https://thedetail.tv/articles/a-majority-favour-a-border-poll-on-the-island-of-ireland-in-the-next-10-years

    Last year 45.4% would vote for a united Ireland, this has now dropped to 42%, which is a change greater than the margin of error. Support for the union has stayed steady or slightly increased from 46.8% to 47%, meaning that the gap in favour of maintaining the union has increased from 1.4% to 5%, again greater than the margin of error.

    Rather than the sensationalist headlines over the weekend, support for a united Ireland is actually decreasing in the North.

    Not surprising when the north got the best brexit deal of all the 4 U.K. nations on paper for now.
    The status quo is the most attractive option.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,429 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    breezy1985 wrote: »
    It would be a huge mistake to start getting excited at 51% then lose and end up where Scotland is now having all calls for a second ref shot down.

    Before any referendum, it has to be certain that the centre ground will vote for it, otherwise a close result either way would be disaster.

    The moderate Unionist must be in favour, as must the Nationalists. It must be clear that they will all be secure in a United Ireland, with no downsides.


  • Registered Users Posts: 67,239 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    20silkcut wrote: »
    Not surprising when the north got the best brexit deal of all the 4 U.K. nations on paper for now.
    The status quo is the most attractive option.

    When you look at the 3-4% fluctuations in the 'Don't knows' (11% in the most recent poll and 7.8% in the Detail poll) that seems to be the case. Floating voters swayed by an on-paper better deal.
    All to play for over the next while as Brexit kicks in.


  • Registered Users Posts: 24,831 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    It would be interesting to see a few real proposals as to what a United Ireland might look like. Have Sinn Fein or any other UI group ever given any idea what they expect Dail constituencies public transport to look like

    Indieref and Brexit were both run on lots of what ifs and pure nonsense projections from some


  • Advertisement
  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Regional East Moderators Posts: 7,838 Mod ✭✭✭✭liamog


    breezy1985 wrote: »
    It would be interesting to see a few real proposals as to what a United Ireland might look like. Have Sinn Fein or any other UI group ever given any idea what they expect Dail constituencies public transport to look like

    Indieref and Brexit were both run on lots of what ifs and pure nonsense projections from some

    I'd hope we'd be a bit smarter and hold a UI advisory referendum, then a reunification citizens assembly followed by an actual referendum which included the constitutional changes. Personally, I think we should be tabling commonwealth membership and a continued devolved structure for NI.


  • Registered Users Posts: 67,239 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    liamog wrote: »
    I'd hope we'd be a bit smarter and hold a UI advisory referendum, then a reunification citizens assembly followed by an actual referendum which included the constitutional changes. Personally, I think we should be tabling commonwealth membership and a continued devolved structure for NI.

    What's a 'UI advisory referendum'?


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 9,078 ✭✭✭IAMAMORON


    I just cannot make my mind up when anticipating when the riots start in earnest?

    I mean will they start when the border poll is actually genuinely proposed, or will they wait until polling day to start burning the polling stations and the congregation of around 150,000 Irish Unionists outside the Kings Hall screaming blue murder whilst chanting " Ulster Says No".

    The Brits want the North off their plate for sure. But we will be picking up the pieces and it will be nasty for generations. Certainly massive civil unrest for a number of years - at the very least.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,539 ✭✭✭Charles Babbage


    blanch152 wrote: »
    The thing that is missing from your analysis is the change from the year before.

    https://thedetail.tv/articles/a-majority-favour-a-border-poll-on-the-island-of-ireland-in-the-next-10-years

    Last year 45.4% would vote for a united Ireland, this has now dropped to 42%, which is a change greater than the margin of error. Support for the union has stayed steady or slightly increased from 46.8% to 47%, meaning that the gap in favour of maintaining the union has increased from 1.4% to 5%, again greater than the margin of error.

    Rather than the sensationalist headlines over the weekend, support for a united Ireland is actually decreasing in the North.


    No, support for a united Ireland remains the same, as the 47% who would welcome a UI shows. Willingness to vote for UI has declined, and this probably reflects that there is a Brexit deal of sorts which stabilises things. There is a job of work in coming up with a model that makes everyone who wants a UI feel that a proper deal exists to achieve it. Many people put forward the contention that the British have so banjaxed the NI economy that they have effectively prevented a UI, and it is indeed a challenge to work around this.


  • Registered Users Posts: 67,239 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    IAMAMORON wrote: »
    I just cannot make my mind up when anticipating when the riots start in earnest?

    I mean will they start when the border poll is actually genuinely proposed, or will they wait until polling day to start burning the polling stations and the congregation of around 150,000 Irish Unionists outside the Kings Hall screaming blue murder whilst chanting " Ulster Says No".

    The Brits want the North off their plate for sure. But we will be picking up the pieces and it will be nasty for generations. Certainly massive civil unrest for a number of years - at the very least.

    People were speculating the same over the Irish Sea border. Jamie Bryson got a few to a meeting upstairs in a pub. That was it. Border up and operating.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,331 ✭✭✭✭jimmycrackcorm


    20silkcut wrote:
    Not surprising when the north got the best brexit deal of all the 4 U.K. nations on paper for now. The status quo is the most attractive option.

    If people in the north are experiencing Amazon delivery delays like we are then it doesn't look as attractive currently, as one practical example.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 9,078 ✭✭✭IAMAMORON


    People were speculating the same over the Irish Sea border. Jamie Bryson got a few to a meeting upstairs in a pub. That was it. Border up and operating.

    Don't be a dreamer Francie. You know fine well it will kick off at the very smell of a referendum.

    Anyhow it is the prerogative of the British prime minister as per the GFA? Any PM who announces one will be basically instigating a riot, they know that.

    Be prepared for the Border Poll to be kicked down the street for another generation at least. I mean you would need to see a new liberal progressive unionist party being formed for starters? They just are not there yet.


  • Registered Users Posts: 860 ✭✭✭UDAWINNER


    IAMAMORON wrote: »
    Don't be a dreamer Francie. You know fine well it will kick off at the very smell of a referendum.

    Anyhow it is the prerogative of the British prime minister as per the GFA? Any PM who announces one will be basically instigating a riot, they know that.

    Be prepared for the Border Poll to be kicked down the street for another generation at least. I mean you would need to see a new liberal progressive unionist party being formed for starters? They just are not there yet.
    Then the PSNI could do their job and batter them, as they did for decades if they were nationalists


  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Regional East Moderators Posts: 7,838 Mod ✭✭✭✭liamog


    What's a 'UI advisory referendum'?

    An advisory referendum is one where the change doesn't actually happen, but gives a clear and formal signal that the change is mandated.

    Brexit was an advisory referendum, parliament could of chosen to take the advice of the people and not go through with it. Scotland's Indyref was not, and would of absolutely resulted in Scotland leaving the UK if yes had won.

    We have two big questions, should Northern Ireland and Ireland join together as one, and what does that new structure look like.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 9,078 ✭✭✭IAMAMORON


    UDAWINNER wrote: »
    Then the PSNI could do their job and batter them, as they did for decades if they were nationalists

    You should sign up as a reservist.

    You will be able to batter them legally then..... :pac::pac:


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 2,927 ✭✭✭Bishop of hope


    Get rid of the monarchy is the easy answer to all the problems.
    This belief that people are bound to a Queen or King in this day and age in a western democratic country or union is ridiculous no matter how you put it.
    An unelected figurehead, laughable.
    Devolve each country to their own governance in a commonwealth is a sensible solution to the whole thing.
    An independent Northern Ireland first, and then through time if the majority wants it, they can apply to become joined in union with the Republic.
    Each independent nation could after their own independence decide to stick with the commonwealth or join the EU perhaps too.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 105 ✭✭Wilhelm III


    IAMAMORON wrote: »
    Don't be a dreamer Francie. You know fine well it will kick off at the very smell of a referendum.
    You are the dreamer Sir - and your dreams of a partitioned, segregated island - held back from real prosperity, and peaceful, mutually beneficial respect and co-operation for the betterment of all citizens - are only that, dreams. I don't believe your username for one second - you are no moron, come on - get on board, dream big - stop thinking small, let's go - united Ireland!!


  • Registered Users Posts: 67,239 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    IAMAMORON wrote: »
    Don't be a dreamer Francie. You know fine well it will kick off at the very smell of a referendum.

    Anyhow it is the prerogative of the British prime minister as per the GFA? Any PM who announces one will be basically instigating a riot, they know that.

    Be prepared for the Border Poll to be kicked down the street for another generation at least. I mean you would need to see a new liberal progressive unionist party being formed for starters? They just are not there yet.

    It's the SoS who will call it.

    Point is, there has been threats of violence before, most recently over the Irish Sea border and it didn't deter that happening.
    Don't be surpised, right back at you.


  • Registered Users Posts: 860 ✭✭✭UDAWINNER


    Amazes me that people will say kick the border poll down the road because of potential trouble with unionists. If a majority supports a border poll and if gets passed by 50+1%, that is it and that is democracy. Or are we gainst democracy when it does not suit. If they cause trouble, then use the police to batter them and some of them have the option to fcuk across the water if they don't want to live in a United Ireland and let them find out what the rest of the UK really thinks of them:)


  • Registered Users Posts: 67,239 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Get rid of the monarchy is the easy answer to all the problems.
    This belief that people are bound to a Queen or King in this day and age in a western democratic country or union is ridiculous no matter how you put it.
    An unelected figurehead, laughable.
    Devolve each country to their own governance in a commonwealth is a sensible solution to the whole thing.
    An independent Northern Ireland first, and then through time if the majority wants it, they can apply to become joined in union with the Republic.
    Each independent nation could after their own independence decide to stick with the commonwealth or join the EU perhaps too.

    If they vote for a UI then there will be a 'majority' for that. Nobody, of any political weight, is proposing an independent NI, because it is pie in the sky, it cannot govern itself, it requires an international agreement between two sovereign countries to ust about function.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 9,078 ✭✭✭IAMAMORON


    You are the dreamer Sir - and your dreams of a partitioned, segregated island - held back from real prosperity, and peaceful, mutually beneficial respect and co-operation for the betterment of all citizens - are only that, dreams. I don't believe your username for one second - you are no moron, come on - get on board, dream big - stop thinking small, let's go - united Ireland!!

    Wilhem I am a very progressive republican. I would love to see a United Ireland.

    But I do believe that the current strategy is going to lead to problems. The GFA is a great document, but it is now 24 years old and definitely needs some revision. It was an agreement to end a war, it should not be used to start anther one.

    At the time nationalists were appeased by the promise of a border poll. The loyalists were appeased by being given disarmament and disbanding of the Provisional council. Both those appeasements were agreed and signed - albeit many Unionists - and Nationalists - opposed the agreement.

    I just think that the provisions of the GFA need another summit another gathering another meeting. To iron out what unionist fears are prior to any poll being introduced. It is the unionist politicians who will have to sell the concept to unionists.

    This blind politics that Sinn Féin are currently adopting is just leading the North back into more hassle. Do they want that really? This concept that half the north is going to wake up one morning and elect themselves into a republic is wishy washy and highly unrealistic. They might find the votes, but at what expense?

    I don't even see enough progressive unionists at ground level to even give any hope of there being a movement towards any sort of concessionary politics around the issue. Until we start to see anything along those lines there should simply not be a poll. There will be eruptions and everyone knows it.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 105 ✭✭Wilhelm III


    IAMAMORON wrote: »
    Wilhem I am a very progressive republican. I would love to see a United Ireland.

    But I do believe that the current strategy is going to lead to problems. The GFA is a great document, but it is now 24 years old and definitely needs some revision. It was an agreement to end a war, it should not be used to start anther one.

    At the time nationalists were appeased by the promise of a border poll. The loyalists were appeased by being given disarmament and disbanding of the Provisional council. Both those appeasements were agreed and signed - albeit many Unionists - and Nationalists - opposed the agreement.

    I just think that the provisions of the GFA need another summit another gathering another meeting. To iron out what unionist fears are prior to any poll being introduced. It is the unionist politicians who will have to sell the concept to unionists.

    This blind politics that Sinn Féin are currently adopting is just leading the North back into more hassle. Do they want that really? This concept that half the north is going to wake up one morning and elect themselves into a republic is wishy washy and highly unrealistic. They might find the votes, but at what expense?

    I don't even see enough progressive unionists at ground level to even give any hope of there being a movement towards any sort of concessionary politics around the issue. Until we start to see anything along those lines there should simply not be a poll. There will be eruptions and everyone knows it.
    OK - my bad Sir, my unfair accusation of your being a dreamer is withdrawn :) !

    EDIT: I thought you were one of these 'I don't want that lot down here' types, my bad.


  • Registered Users Posts: 24,831 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    UDAWINNER wrote: »
    Amazes me that people will say kick the border poll down the road because of potential trouble with unionists. If a majority supports a border poll and if gets passed by 50+1%, that is it and that is democracy. Or are we gainst democracy when it does not suit. If they cause trouble, then use the police to batter them and some of them have the option to fcuk across the water if they don't want to live in a United Ireland and let them find out what the rest of the UK really thinks of them:)

    My reason for kicking it down the road has nothing to do with trouble. I just think the 51% yes could easily swing the wrong way when unionists put things like €50 for a GP visit on the side of a bus.
    Indieref and Brexit swung on a few very marketable issues like that.

    Wait till the numbers look a bit safer rather than the streets


  • Registered Users Posts: 67,239 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    IAMAMORON wrote: »
    Wilhem I am a very progressive republican. I would love to see a United Ireland.

    But I do believe that the current strategy is going to lead to problems. The GFA is a great document, but it is now 24 years old and definitely needs some revision. It was an agreement to end a war, it should not be used to start anther one.

    At the time nationalists were appeased by the promise of a border poll. The loyalists were appeased by being given disarmament and disbanding of the Provisional council. Both those appeasements were agreed and signed - albeit many Unionists - and Nationalists - opposed the agreement.

    I just think that the provisions of the GFA need another summit another gathering another meeting. To iron out what unionist fears are prior to any poll being introduced. It is the unionist politicians who will have to sell the concept to unionists.

    This blind politics that Sinn Féin are currently adopting is just leading the North back into more hassle. Do they want that really? This concept that half the north is going to wake up one morning and elect themselves into a republic is wishy washy and highly unrealistic. They might find the votes, but at what expense?

    I don't even see enough progressive unionists at ground level to even give any hope of there being a movement towards any sort of concessionary politics around the issue. Until we start to see anything along those lines there should simply not be a poll. There will be eruptions and everyone knows it.

    The distinct possibility of a UI was built into the GFA. Unionism knew this, that is wny the belligerents didn't sign up to it.

    If a major violent campaign capable of disrupting any agreed UI was going to happen then was the time. Paisley et ál tried to muster a sustained militant campaign against it but failed.


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 27,277 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    UDAWINNER wrote: »
    Then the PSNI could do their job and batter them, as they did for decades if they were nationalists

    It isn't the job of any police force to batter protestors.


Advertisement