Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

Thursday, 31 May, 2012
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TODAY ... Overcast with light rain becoming more confined to north, where highs will be held down to about 16-17 C. The rain will be slowly tapering off to drizzle with 3-7 mms likely (trace to 3 mms south). Fog or mist will linger on some hills and near shore, but it should brighten up during the afternoon in the south with limited sunshine, warm with highs 19-22 C. Winds rather light from southwest to west. High humidity levels.

TONIGHT ... Fog or mist, sporadic light rain mainly in northern counties, and lows 10-12 C.

FRIDAY ... A few lingering showers or drizzle in the north, partly cloudy and warm, humid south ... highs 16-18 C north to 20-22 C south. Cooler near some coastlines with sea fog near shore.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud with some decent sunny intervals especially central and eastern counties, lows 7-10 C and highs 19-22 C. Rain spreading into parts of the west and south by evening.

SUNDAY ... Outbreaks of light rain, although some dry intervals, a touch cooler in the south and central counties, noticeably cooler in Ulster and parts of Connacht. Lows 6-8 C and highs generally 17-20 C but 13-17 C north.

MONDAY ... Rain becoming showery during the morning then variable cloud with some brighter intervals, isolated showers, lows near 6 C and highs near 17 C south, 13 C north.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The week of 5-8 June should be near normal in temperature with showery southwest to west flow, trending to somewhat warmer with more chance of sunshine towards the weekend although some risk of thunderstorms. The current outlook for Ireland's opening game in western Poland in the Euro 2012 tournament is warm and dry with slight risk of showers, daytime highs near 24 C and evening temperatures near 16 C.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Heavy rain all day in parts of Oklahoma, northeast Texas, Arkansas spreading east and southeast, highs 22-25 C, rainfalls to 200 mms in places could cause flooding. Severe storms a bit further south in eastern Texas. Warm and dry from this storm zone west to the Pacific, highs near 30 C in Texas but 34-40 C in the desert southwest. Rain across the northwest states into parts of the northern plains states, chilly, then drying out further north. Partly cloudy and near average for late May in most of the eastern states except for some rain near the Carolina coast from departing Beryl.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Wednesday was cloudy with rain at times both morning and evening, but a dry afternoon, highs near 17 C. Rain is currently rather light and we have probably had less than 5 mms.

Saturday, 2 June, 2012
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ALERT for locally heavy rainfalls of 30-50 mms next two days, most likely in the central and southeast counties, between Galway and the Wicklow Mountains for a general zone of heavier falls ... as little as 10-20 mms in parts of Ulster mainly tonight ... potential for spot flooding especially around Tipps, north Waterford, Laois and Carlow, Kilkenny, Kildare, and parts of Dublin and Wicklow, Wexford.

TODAY ... Hazy sunshine in north and east to start, increasing cloud, highs around 16-19 C. Overcast with rain in southwest, becoming cloudy in west and south with rain starting mid-morning, then reaching east coast by afternoon. Winds becoming E-SE 15-30 mph, some heavy bursts of rain in Munster giving 15-25 mms. Highest temperatures around 15-16 C but feeling rather raw due to the wind.

TONIGHT and SUNDAY ... Rain continuing, heavy at times in the counties mentioned in the alert with some thunder, further rainfalls of 20-40 mms, although 10-20 mms a more likely total in Ulster. Lows overnight around 12 C with fog prevalent. Gradual drying and partial clearance later Sunday in west Munster and by late afternoon and evening elsewhere as rain fragments and pulls away to southeast. Highs 14-17 C, higher in Kerry and inland Cork than elsewhere.

MONDAY ... Variable cloud, isolated showers, lows 8-10 C and highs 13-17 C.

TUESDAY ... Increasing cloud, rain spreading into some parts of west and south by late in the day, lows 7-9 C and highs 16-18 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Cloudy with a few breaks, showers, lows near 10 C and highs near 16 C.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY ... More rain, possibly heavy at times, with 20-40 mms potential. Highs around 15 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Unsettled for a few more days at least, with a better chance for dry weather in the second half of June.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Heavy rain or showers in eastern Canada and some parts of the northeast U.S., turning much cooler than recent days with highs only 15-18 C. Scattered storms again in south central states and warm but not overly hot, highs 27-30 C. Variable cloud further north, turning warmer in a westerly flow, rain spreading across parts of western Canada towards central prairies, highs 22-25 C south but turning cooler further north. West coast unsettled and rather chilly, highs 14-16 C.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Friday was partly cloudy with a few isolated showers and highs near 16 C.

Sunday, 3 June, 2012
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TODAY ... Rain should begin to ease off during the late morning in the central and eastern counties, with 10-15 mms more from 0800h to early afternoon, and a slight cooling trend as winds become NE 15-25 mph. Temperatures will be about 12-13 C under cloud but as some breaks develop from north to south and also across the southwest, some places will then see highs during the afternoon of 16-18 C. The southeast and south coast may stay under low cloud and highs of 13-15 C.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, low cloud near south coast, drizzle near some outer coasts, but mainly dry with lows 5-8 C inland, 8-11 C coastal and urban. Winds becoming light except near east coast NNE 10-15 mph.

MONDAY ... Some sunny intervals for central and eastern counties, with light showers in a north to northeast breeze near 10-15 mph, these mainly along the east coast or over hilly parts of the north. Cloudier in the far west with rain spreading back in late afternoon. Highs generally 15-18 C.

TUESDAY ... Periods of rain or showers, some brighter intervals, about 10-15 mms of rain and temperatures steady 12-15 C but possibly rising a bit where cloud breaks mid-day, to about 17 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Variable cloud, scattered showers heavy in some places, and rather warm and humid, lows 7-9 C and highs 17-19 C.

THURSDAY ... Rain may become heavy again especially in the west and this time it may spread across Mayo and Donegal while near its peak with 20-40 mms potentially ... 10-20 mms more generally, and temperatures between a morning low of 12 C and an afternoon high of 15 C.

FRIDAY ... Becoming breezy or windy (SW-W 30-40 mph) with squally showers in some parts, sunny intervals between lines of showers and highs about 15 C.

OUTLOOK ... Continuing about the same, unsettled with showers almost daily and only brief intervals of dry weather, but continuing to see potential for much improved conditions second half of June.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Warm and dry southeast, somewhat cooler western Great Lakes but dry if cloudy, as a large weather system pulls away to northeast with strong winds and showers across the eastern Great Lakes, northeast U.S. and Canadian Maritimes, Quebec. Some local rainfalls to 50 or 75 mms. Showers and thunderstorms in some parts of the south-central plains states, a few severe, hot and humid in Texas, cool and dry to the north but warm and dry further west into the Great Basin and desert southwest states. Rain moving across B.C., Washington into Alberta, Montana and Idaho. Some embedded thunderstorms with that.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Saturday was a very unsettled day with scattered thundershowers around 2 p.m., a raggedy funnel cloud was spotted (no real rotation or surface wind gusts) followed a few minutes later by torrential rain and melting hail. That was followed by some breaks in the overcast which allowed a view of the slowly departing cloud tops over the mountains northeast of here. Highs were about 17 C and rather humid with that.

Tuesday, 5 June, 2012
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TODAY ... Showers or periods of rain moving northeast, followed by some brighter intervals before another line of showers and a few thunderstorms, moving into the west mid-day and across most of the north and central counties this afternoon into the evening. Further rainfalls of about 10 mms on average, somewhat less near south coast, potentially 20 mms in a few parts of Connacht and Ulster. Highs 16-18 C.

TONIGHT ... Showers ending, clearing but extensive ground fog and some low cloud developing later, sunrise conditions (for Venus transit observers) likely to be hit or miss, would suggest a higher location because of the ground fog. Lows 6-10 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Increasing cloud after some morning sun, more showers and thundershowers developing, rather warm and humid with highs 17-19 C.

THURSDAY ... Periods of rain may become heavy at times, moderate SE winds of 20-40 mph may ease as low centre approaches, with 20-40 mms rain quite possible. Lows near 10 C and highs near 15 C.

FRIDAY ... Further rain, tapering off to showers, as winds become moderate westerly, lows near 8 C and highs near 15 C, further rainfalls about 10-15 mms. After this two-day total (could approach 50 mms) some spot flooding possible again.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Cloudy, a few brighter intervals, occasional showers, highs each day about 17 or 18 C. About the same pattern for western Poland, possibly a degree or two warmer there, but becoming showery around Sunday evening.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... The northeast states and Great Lakes will see improving weather as a showery system pulls further away into Labrador and Newfoundland, quite chilly across eastern Canada behind this front, trending to about 20-23 C in the western Great Lakes and 27-32 C in the plains states and southern prairies. Extensive heavy rain and thunderstorms from Alberta and eastern B.C., southeast throughout the Rockies into Colorado and spreading into parts of New Mexico and Texas. Some of this rain could cause severe flooding in connection with snow melt from the Rockies. A second disturbance will pile into this storm along the coast.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Cloudy and quite cool at only 14 C on Monday. Drizzle has just begun in advance of heavier rain expected soon.

UPDATE _ Wed 6 June 2012 _ 9 p.m.
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Forecast remains on track, would recommend the storm thread for a detailed discussion. These are my estimates for total rainfalls from this two-day event:

75-100 mms possible in a few parts of west and central Munster, inland southeast as well as parts of Wicklow, and central (south/west Leinster) into Connacht, these amounts mainly where northeast winds encounter uplift from local hills, streams rising in these regions could overflow downstream.

50-75 mms likely in many parts of Munster and Leinster, and nearby parts of Connacht.

25-50 mms likely in coastal Connacht and most of Ulster, as well as a few locations that are located west or southwest of hills elsewhere.

One slight amendment to the forecast issued this morning would concern wind speeds on Friday which could be more like 35 mph gusting to 65 mph in exposed parts of the west and south as the storm draws in strong westerly winds.

Forecast as usual around 0630, I'm sure the storm thread will have all the details on the approach of the storm tonight.

Friday, 8 June, 2012
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ALERT for some continued heavy rainfalls although now the emphasis is more on flooding that has developed from earlier rains, moderate to severe in a few parts of the inland southwest, central and southeast counties ... a further 20-30 mms rain possible in some of these areas today ... also strong westerly winds in all exposed areas.

TODAY ... Overcast with further rain, becoming showery in the south and southwest and ending there mid-afternoon, continuing elsewhere although rather light east of the Wicklow and Dublin mountains ... heavier amounts possible inland southeast, central and Connacht into Ulster, 20-30 mms ... winds WNW 30-50 mph but with some gusts to 65 mph near west coast ... highs only 12-14 C, feeling very raw in the wind. Ongoing risk of flooding with larger rivers slower to reach flood stage, consider source of rivers and streams, as well as local rainfall. Some field overflow and mudslides in hilly terrain.

TONIGHT ... The north will remain rather breezy and cool with showery rain until past midnight ... clearing across the south ... winds WNW 20-40 mph decreasing from southwest to northeast ... lows 7-9 C.

SATURDAY ... Sunny intervals will be good for some drying, isolated showers but most places dry, highs near 18 C.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, some morning showers or periods of light rain but rainfalls generally 3-7 mms, lows near 10 C and highs near 16 C.

MONDAY ... Showers, highs near 16 C.

TUESDAY ... Sunny intervals, highs near 17 C.

WED-THURS ... Possible rain, too early to say whether amounts significant, but some potential so stay tuned.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Heavy rain has spread into British Columbia again, and will reach Alberta and some parts of the northwest U.S. later, cool with highs 13-17 C. Showers and thunderstorms in many other parts of the prairies and plains states, increasingly warm and humid south of South Dakota with highs 30-33 C. Eastern states and Great Lakes, eastern Canada still rather unsettled with showers, sub-normal temperatures and some heavy rains in coastal regions of eastern Canada.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Thursday was overcast with frequent light rain, but only about 10 mms in total.

Sunday, 10 June, 2012
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TODAY ... Sunshine will be more prevalent in north-central counties and even there it may fade behind advancing cloud, but most coastal regions are likely to stay cloudy with occasional showers developing, not very heavy with amounts just 2-5 mms. Highs 16-17 C in the sunny north-central counties, and closer to 14 C around coastal regions. Light winds.

TONIGHT ... Variable cloud, fog or mist patches, a few drizzly showers, and lows near 8 C.

MONDAY ... Variable cloud, showers developing and becoming heavy in a few places, amounts generally 3-7 mms ... highs near 16 C.

TUESDAY ... Bright intervals to start then increasing cloud, showers, some heavy, slight risk of thunder, lows 7-10 C and highs 15-17 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Possibly more dry intervals and scattered sunny intervals, isolated showers. Lows near 7 C and highs near 17 C.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY ... Models are suggesting a rainfall event of about half the strength of the one last week on the same days, but there is probably some chance of this fizzling out and missing to the south, so I would say about a 70% chance of rain at this point, and 10-25 mms the most likely range.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... I don't really have great confidence in model output beyond four days at present, the sort of featureless vacuum over the North Atlantic on most charts probably represents uncertainty more than a real outcome, and the trend has been for months to turn warmer towards mid-month so as this may be connected with the lunar cycle I will hold out some hope of an improving weather picture and improving forecasts to go with it, beyond next weekend, which seems likely to be unsettled and not all that warm at 15-16 C.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Heavy showers and thunderstorms will cross the northern plains region and reach the westernj Great Lakes by evening. Mostly dry and hot in central regions, but humid with heavy showers and storms in the southeast. Near normal in the northeast, cloudy with showers over most of western Canada.

FORECAST FOR EURO 2012 (Poznan) ... Cloudy, warm although not oppressive, humid, showers in the vicinity if not during the game, temperatures about 19-20 C. Ireland to do well (in the Boards forecast contest the average of 43 forecasts was a 1-1 tie; I said 3-3 which may indicate a five-hour game ahead).

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Saturday was cloudy with sunny intervals and about 16 C. We are already in that featureless vacuum that the models say will show up over the North Atlantic.

Tuesday, 12 June, 2012
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ADVANCE ALERT for another rain and wind event Thursday into Friday, not quite a certainty yet as this system has not really formed up yet, but models are keen to bring a repeat of last week's event, perhaps not quite that intense but at about a 75% concentration ... but this may be the last in a series, we hope.

TODAY ... Cloudy with a few breaks, but also some heavy showers developing into thunderstorms with some locally heavy downpours giving 10 to 20 mms ... highs around 15-17 C. Winds increasing in western counties to NNW 15-30 mph, more variable further east.

TONIGHT ... Mist or fog patches once the showers die out, lows 6-9 C but possibly a bit cooler in a few inland valleys.

WEDNESDAY ... Breezy with intervals of cloud and sunshine, still a few showers and perhaps some heavier thundershowers in central counties. Highs 15-17 C.

THURSDAY ... Becoming windy with rain developing, potential for 15-30 mms and winds SE 20-40 mph, some higher gusts by evening.

FRIDAY ... Windy with rain at times, 15-30 mms further in south central counties, risk of local flooding there, probably closer to 10-20 mms for most northern counties, chilly for time of year with winds ENE backing to N 20-40 mph and some higher gusts.

SATURDAY ... Cloudy with showers but less windy and highs near 15 C.

SUNDAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, isolated showers. Highs near 16 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... There are some optimistic signs of higher pressure developing in the next week to ten days and I don't expect the entire summer to be as dire as this first half of June, in fact it may reverse to something much better ... I think many have concluded that there cannot be good summer weather in "this climate" but I can't see any real basis for that because all other seasons seem capable of producing settled spells of warm weather in "this climate" so ... stands to reason that summer might as well.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Mostly light showers in some eastern regions may include a few heavier thunderstorms later. Remnants of very heavy rainfalls in the southeast are merging with this system and there is a risk of an offshore tropical storm later this week. Meanwhile, another region of showers in east Texas but rather dry and hot from west Texas to California, and seasonably warm further north with just a few outbreaks of scattered showers over the Rockies.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Monday turned a little warmer with a few sunny breaks in the persistent overcast. Highs near 20 C.

Thursday, 14 June, 2012
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ALERT continued for heavy rain and strong winds, generally 30-60 mms of rain next two days and winds gusting to 55-60 mph in exposed coastal and upland locations, 35-50 mph in more sheltered locations.

THURSDAY ... Cloudy to start although perhaps a few brief sunny breaks in the north. Rain spreading into the south with winds steadily increasing there to reach SE 35-60 mph by late in the day. Further north, winds E-NE at 15-30 mph at first, rising to 25-45 mph later. Rainfalls to midnight likely to reach about 20 mms south, 10 mms central and 5 mms north. Highest temperatures around 15 C north, 11-13 C south, feeling raw there in the stronger winds.

Comments: The storm will be elongated and rainfall may break into a pattern of strong and weak bands, so final results will be highly dependent on luck of the draw but the peak rainfall amounts should be roughly Wicklow to south Laois to inland Cork-Kerry. Wind gusts will also tend to come and go in waves as a system like this often forms a number of separate energy centres.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY ... Rain continuing, windy (ESE to ENE 30-50 mph) and some local flooding, further rainfalls 20-40 mms heaviest inland south. Temperatures steady 11-13 C but rising to near 15 C in southeast late Friday, as milder air seeps in, with fog over hills in south.

SATURDAY ... Early morning wind and rain should ease before mid-day then a few breaks in decreasing northerly winds, starting out 25-45 mph then easing to 15-30 mph later, showers becoming more isolated, highs near 14 C.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, highs 15-17 C.

MONDAY ... Partly cloudy, showers, highs 15-17 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Some chances of an improvement later in the week, with some warmer days with some sunshine, then becoming breezy with showers around late Sunday 24th into the first part of the following week. The overall "look" of the model run is towards warmer and more settled weather as higher pressure builds from the west. Warm or even hot weather could develop out of this extended range forecast scenario, so I would be hesitant to write off the summer yet, after all, it's only weather folk who think that summer starts on the first of June, most of the world says 21st and there is probably a good reason for that. I commented on another forum using the U.K. "CET" daily data that the warmest three months of the year (equivalent length) run from 13 June to 12 September. That's closer to the astronomical than the meteorological definition of summer.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Dry and pleasant in the northeast and Great Lakes as high pressure stalls over northeast Ontario and western Quebec. Temperatures a little below average but with the strong June sunshine warm enough at about 21-24 C. Heavy storms in a slow-moving frontal zone Minnesota to Kansas. Heavy rains in the southeast U.S. also. Showers and periods of rain in western Canada, but warm and dry further south.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Wednesday was cloudy but pleasantly mild with a high near 18 C.

Saturday, 16 June, 2012
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TODAY ... Morning showers or longer periods of light rain over eastern counties, early drizzle ending further west as clouds begin to break, then rather windy mid-day (NNW 20-40 mph), total rainfalls now to mid-afternoon about 5-10 mms east, and highest temperatures 14-16 C.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with some clear intervals, chilly with lows 5-8 C.

SUNDAY ... Morning sunshine fading behind increasing cloud, isolated showers developing, highs 15-17 C.

MONDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, lows near 8 C and highs near 16 C.

TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY ... Some sunshine likely, isolated showers each day and a bit warmer at about 17-19 C.

THURSDAY ... Showers or periods of rain, highs near 16 C.

FRIDAY ... Showers, highs 15-17 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Some chance of a warmer interval developing around the weekend of 23-24 June, but at the moment I feel that the model runs are struggling with weak signals and the best guidance may actually be the earlier research-based statistical forecast that showed warmer weather in late June.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Northeast U.S. and Great Lakes staying sunny and warm as fronts weaken each time they pass Lake Michigan; the latest in that series heading slowly east across the plains states with some heavy downpours from Chicago to St Louis to northeast Texas. A few severe storms in the Kansas-Nebraska region, warm and dry further west, but wet with near-normal temps in B.C. and Alberta.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Friday was sunny to start, then cloudy by afternoon, and a bit warmer at 19 C.

Monday, 18 June, 2012
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TODAY ... Sunny intervals at first in central and eastern counties, with a band of showers working east rather slowly and tending to evolve into periods of light rain, 3-5 mms on average ... highs 13-16 C with the warmer readings likely in the east.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy at first with clear intervals developing, mist or fog patches, lows 5 to 8 C.

TUESDAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, isolated showers giving 2-4 mms on average, highs 15-18 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Slightly warmer with some sunshine for most, as winds turn more to southeast, lows around 7 C and highs 17-19 C.

THURSDAY ... Early morning rain developing then lasting much of the day in easterly winds, 15-30 mms potential, lows near 10 C and highs near 14 C.

FRIDAY ... Showers, breezy from west to northwest, lows near 11 C and highs near 15 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Near normal temperatures and some sunshine each day, isolated showers. Highs 16-19 C.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Heavy thunderstorms lasting most of the night will continue to drift east from Minnesota and some new ones may develop further west along a frontal zone separating rather cool Pacific air over the northern plains (22-25 C) from hot, humid air over the central plains where highs could reach 40 C. The northeast will see a few showers or storms also, but also some sunny intervals.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Sunday was cloudy with a few isolated showers and a high near 17 C, so about the same weather here as there.

Wednesday, 20 June, 2012
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The new moon slipped past un-noted on Tuesday at 4:03 p.m. IST.

TODAY ... An east-west divide with low cloud, mist and drizzly rain at times in western counties, possibly improving at times this afternoon, 2-5 mms rain and highs 13-16 C. Eastern counties will enjoy somewhat brighter weather in general and may remain dry until late afternoon before rain moves in from the south. Highs 15-18 C.

TONIGHT ... Rain, becoming heavy at times, 10-20 mms on average, and fog developing, lows near 10 C.

THURSDAY ... Periods of rain becoming more confined to western counties in an east to southeast wind reaching 25-40 mph at times in exposed areas, some hill fog and certainly not very summer-like at 13-15 C at maximum. Rainfalls of 5-15 mms ... heaviest inland west Munster.

FRIDAY ... Showers, winds becoming variable early morning then westerly and increasing to 20-40 mph, lows near 11 C and highs near 15 C. Rainfalls of about 5 mms in most areas, potential for 10 mms Connacht-Ulster.

SATURDAY ... Showers becoming isolated, some brighter intervals developing with less windy conditions, lows near 8 C and highs near 16 C.

SUNDAY ... Sunny intervals, showers confined to north, lows near 8 C and highs 16-18 C (warmest central to inland southeast).

MONDAY ... According to the earlier models, sunny intervals, warmer, highs near 20 C ... but "doctor no" (ECM) says cloudy with showers, 17 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... That divergence of opinion seems to extend into the week, any guesses as to which outlook will prevail. Thought so.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Hot, humid weather will finally reach the east coast as the marine layer is pushed back offshore by westerly winds, so now highs well into the 30s will extend from Kansas to New York with very high humidity levels in the Midwest where some dew points may reach 28 C. Heavy showers and thunderstorms will extend from South Dakota to central Ontario into northern New England. Hot and dry in the southwest, improving partly cloudy weather on the west coast. Tropical Storm Chris is well off the Nova Scotia coast edging northeast and should die out after a few days of minimal tropical storm winds of 45 knots.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Tuesday was overcast with some clear breaks visible off to the south and west this afternoon, light winds, a bit warmer at 18 C.

Friday, 22 June, 2012
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TODAY ... Overcast at first, with breaks developing across the south, showing up later in central counties, north likely to remain cloudy ... showers, a few heavy at times in the north, further rainfalls there of 5-10 mms, and becoming windy (WNW 25-45 mph) and cool with highs 13-15 C.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with clear intervals, rather cool with lows 5-8 C.

SATURDAY ... Some morning sunshine, increasing cloud, heavy showers or periods of rain developing, some thunder likely late in the day, lows near 7 C and highs near 15 or 16 C.

SUNDAY ... Morning showers clearing, sunny intervals later, lows near 10 C and highs near 17 C. Winds freshening to westerly 20-30 mph.

MONDAY ... Sunny intervals, a bit warmer again, highs 18-21 C.

TUESDAY ... Increasing cloud, warm, highs 18-21 C. Possible showers in west by afternoon spreading country-wide by evening.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY ... Showers, highs around 17 C.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Heat wave ending late today in the northeast states, with scattered thunderstorms, after another high well into the 30s today. This fresher air mass is already in the Great Lakes region where it will be about 25-27 C with lower humidity. A few scattered storms in the Midwest along a weak front. Widespread rain or showers in the southeast ahead of a developing tropical storm near the Yucatan Channel. Hot and dry from Texas west to California, and showery further north, some intense storms likely along a front coming inland in B.C. and Washington state (I may be storm chasing at this rate).

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Thursday was another sunny and quite warm day with increasing high cloud, highs around 25 C. Friday's forecast is scattered thunderstorms. I may be posting pictures if they're not rain-shrouded.

Sunday, 24 June, 2012
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TODAY ... Mostly cloudy to start the day with sunny intervals becoming more frequent mid-day and afternoon, except where low cloud drifts inland near west coast ... a few light showers will dissipate later this morning in most cases, trace to 2 mm amounts possible ... winds WNW 15-30 mph, but rather warm despite that, with highs 17-19 C.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, fog patches, drizzle at times near west coast, lows 7-10 C (mildest west).

MONDAY ... Hazy sunshine in most regions, low cloud or drizzle near some outer coasts south and west, warm(ish) with highs 18-22 C.

TUESDAY ... Some bright intervals but more cloud, some fog or drizzle drifting well inland south and west, warm and quite humid with lows 10-12 C and highs 18-21 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Variable cloud, warm, showers developing, chance of a thunderstorm south central to east inland, lows 11-13 C and highs 18-21 C.

THURSDAY ... Cloudy, showers and gusty SW winds developing 20-40 mph, rainfalls about 10-15 mms and highs near 17 C.

FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy, breezy, showers (5-10 mms rain), highs near 16 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Continuing breezy and unsettled with highs 16-18 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Some signs of improvement with swelling high pressure on GFS model around days 10-15, although location (to west) not ideal for hot weather, it could at least turn more settled and reasonably warm if that verifies.

EURO 2012 today ... For Italy v England in Kiev, very warm and partly cloudy but slight risk of a brief thunderstorm late today. Game prediction 1-1 pk etc.
Severe storms appear possible in southern Ukraine.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Hot almost coast to coast but especially around Colorado, Kansas where it hit 43 C on Saturday and may repeat today. Gulf coast bracing for Debby (50 mph TS at present) moving rather unpredictably and slowly north, could swerve either way or just keep drifting towards New Orleans ... landfall not likely until Tuesday to Wednesday night ... scattered storms in Great Lakes and New England, and heavy storms developing across parts of inland western Canada.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Saturday featured mostly cloudy skies, a few showers especially heavy this evening, isolated storms which missed my location, and highs near 17 C. Sunday looks unsettled also. So, you're not alone in this unsettled pattern (actually the weather looks a bit better there than here next 2-3 days).

Tuesday, 26 June, 2012
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TODAY ... Scattered showers and brief thundery outbreaks north central this morning, otherwise some bright intervals east, south central but more cloud, some fog or drizzle drifting well inland south and west, warm and quite humid with highs 18-22 C. Later, there will be an interval of light rain moving generally north and this may be followed by warm sunshine inland southeast late afternoon and evening. Rainfalls today about 2-4 mms with some places staying largely dry although misty.

TONIGHT ... Quite warm and close with lows 11-14 C, a few showers mainly across the north with thunder at times.

WEDNESDAY ... Variable cloud, warm, showers developing, chance of a thunderstorm south central to east inland, and later in the day across Ulster, and highs 18-22 C. Rainfalls generally about 5-10 mms.

THURSDAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny intervals, showers and gusty SW winds developing 20-40 mph, rainfalls about 10-15 mms, lows near 12 C and highs near 17-19 C.

FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy, breezy (WSW-WNW 25-45 mph), showers (5-10 mms rain), highs near 16 C. Some longer thundery bursts of rain likely across the north.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Continuing breezy and unsettled with highs 16-18 C. There could be some sunshine each day between showers, and one longer interval of rain towards Saturday evening and early overnight into Sunday morning.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Model runs are quite optimistic ... are you? ... past about Monday 2nd July, the trend is towards warm and dry weather with potential for highs of 22-25 C at times (27-30 C in Britain, 32-35 C in France, 38-42 C in Spain, I could go on).

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Speaking of heat, 44 C (111 F) in parts of Kansas and Colorado on Monday for the third or fourth consecutive day -- close to records set in 1911 (a notable heat wave summer in July-August in both the northeast U.S. and western Europe). This heat, which will continue today, is less intense east of Kansas City but still well into the 30s as far east as Virginia. Cooler weather will prevail today in the northeast states and the Great Lakes with scattered showers, but a warming trend will follow. Heavy storms developing in Alberta and Saskatchewan, isolated storms in northern plains states overnight and Tuesday. Improving over the Rockies and increasing cloud from the next front coming inland on the west coast.

T.S. Debby has moved closer to the northwest Florida coast but won't come inland until tonight, although very heavy rains continue in northern Florida. A secondary tropical disturbance is forming off the east coast of Florida and this could take over Debby's energy supply before the storm itself moves across Florida. Heavy rains are spreading up the Carolina coast but won't make it very far inland as Debby appears headed for Cape Hatteras and then towards Cape Cod later this week and weekend.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Monday was a very pleasant sunny day (naturally) with a high near 21 C. Increasing higher cloud by this evening.

ALERT for heavy rainfalls 30-50 mms overnight in parts of Munster spreading to south Leinster especially east Kerry, Cork, Limerick, Waterford, Tipps, Laois, Kilkenny, Carlow, Wexford with some torrential downpours, thunder and lightning at times, leading to local flooding risk by midnight to 0300h in Cork and Limerick and possibly a bit later further east. Forum discussions will update further as I am heading out here shortly for most of this period (it being a sunny day here eight hours behind your time zone).

This rainfall will spread into the rest of Leinster and east Ulster through the day and somewhat less intense cells may sweep northeast across regions further west, but this is already more or less covered in the existing morning forecast.

Thursday, 28 June, 2012
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ALERT updated for torrential thunderstorm rainfalls in Ulster and north Connacht, north Leinster from now (0600h) to mid-day, gradually ending from the south, and producing a further 30-60 mms of rain in these counties with risk of severe flooding especially for smaller streams that can accumulate these rains faster and overflow. Life-threatening flooding could develop in a few locations, be especially aware of this in steep-sided valleys in hilly areas. Mudflows could develop on slopes above highways leading to disruptions. Intense lightning has been a feature of this meso-scale system all night and may continue. A separate area of severe storm activity is moving north offshore from Wicklow and Dublin and outer portions of that may brush the east coast, or more severe activity could result, but readers in Down (Bangor, Belfast in particular) and Antrim should be alert for this system sweeping in around 0900h-1100h merging with the main area. Readers in the Isle of Man should be alert also to severe storm development this morning.

Forecasts continue about as before, with these added details above.

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy with locally heavy or torrential rain in the north, hail and severe lightning for some in Ulster, and 30-60 mms rain. These very heavy rains should gradually end this morning in central counties and have already largely ended in the south, but a few more isolated showers or heavier thunderstorms could develop later especially in Kerry, Clare, Galway and Mayo. Some clearing may develop and winds will be moderate SE veering to SSW 20-35 mph by afternoon. The Ulster heavy rain should move slowly north and be largely off to the north by afternoon but the north coast could continue to see downpours. Highs today 17-21 C. Fog over some hills.

TONIGHT ... Further showers, mild and humid, 5-15 mms rain potential, and lows only 12-15 C.

FRIDAY ... Becoming somewhat less humid with intervals of cloud and sun, passing showers, some of these becoming heavy with thunder and hail. Winds southwest 20-40 mph, and highs 15-18 C. Intervals of heavy rain by evening and overnight into Saturday morning.

SATURDAY ... Becoming windy rather early in the day for most, mid-day in north and east Ulster, as low pressure slowly pulls away. The north will remain in low overcast, scudding clouds with drizzle or light rain, while further south there could be occasional sharp showers with hail, but also some brighter intervals. The south coast may be closer to partly cloudy with just isolated showers. Winds generally will increase to WSW 30-50 mph veering to NW 35-55 mph, and it will feel cold, with morning lows 7-10 C and afternoon highs 13-16 C (it may stay 12-13 C all day in the north).

SUNDAY ... A rather cool start, then pleasant sunny intervals, lows around 5 to 8 C and highs 17-20 C.

MONDAY ... Increasing cloud, warm. Showers in west by afternoon. Highs around 21 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Somewhat unsettled, nothing too major on the current maps (but there is this Thursday factor to consider, I think every Thursday this past month has turned out extremely wet). Highs during first week to ten days of July in the normal 17-21 C range, but some indications of much warmer weather developing mid-month.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... The severe heat continues to move east although it will stay 37-42 C in the central plains, trending down to 25-30 C in the northern plains and 20-25 C in the Canadian prairies in strong westerly winds. Meanwhile, very hot by this afternoon in the lower Great Lakes, Ohio and Tennessee valley regions, highs 35-40 C in many places, trending to about 33-37 C on the east coast (they get the full blast of severe heat on Friday and the weekend). Quite a bit cooler than this in the upper Great Lakes where the surface air mass will remain under an inversion of this hot air invasion, so 23-27 C at most. Turning a bit warmer for Alberta and inland BC while the coast sees slowly increasing cloud. Hot and dry southwest states. Debby basically fell apart after crossing Florida and is trying to regroup northeast of the Bahamas, eventually remnants will head northeast to Newfoundland.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Wednesday was a very nice sunny day with highs around 22 C.

Check the ongoing storm thread for more updates and details, I will also post updates if developments are different from what's already in the alert and forecast. Would advise extreme caution if travelling today in southwest from after-effects of locally torrential rains, same in some central counties, and especially in the north due to the ongoing torrential rains.

Saturday, 30 June, 2012
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TODAY ... Showers or longer intervals of rain developing, heavier in Connacht and west Ulster this morning, becoming more showery later with slight risk of thunder as the front moves gradually to the east, followed by variable cloud and further showers as winds increase to WSW 30-50 mph then veer more to NW 30-50 mph (north coast not as windy until late afternoon when the low moves further away). Highs rather chilly for time of year at 13-16 C. Rainfalls about 5-10 mms for many, 10-15 mms in some north-central counties.

TONIGHT ... Windy with showers and lows only 5-8 C, partial clearing later. Winds WNW 20-40 mph.

SUNDAY ... Morning sunshine, afternoon cloud with some rain edging onto west coast during late morning to afternoon, becoming more showery further east in the afternoon and evening, 2-5 mms possible. Highs about 17-19 C.

MONDAY ... Cloudy with some brighter intervals, showers and slight risk of a thunderstorm, lows near 8 C and highs near 18 C.

TUESDAY ... Partly cloudy, showers, risk of thunderstorms, lows near 8 C and highs near 18 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Somewhat unsettled but could stay dry in some places under mixed clouds and brighter intervals, temperatures fairly close to normal around 17-18 C.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Severe heat continuing today in most of the eastern states once remnants of overnight storms clear eastward, heavy storms developing south of Chicago moving east towards Ohio and Pennsylvania, Maryland later in the day. Highs between these outbreaks could reach 35-40 C again. Further south into the Tennessee valley and the southeast, sunny and very hot, highs 39-44 C. This same heat will remain over the southern plains and start pushing back north into the central plains states. Some highs above 40 C again. Outbreaks of showers and storms further north into the northern plains, Rockies.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Friday was cloudy with light rain at times, but some clearing took place late afternoon allowing temperatures to reach 21 C.

Monday, 2 July, 2012
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ADVANCE ALERT for heavy or torrential rainfalls mid-week, see forecast for details, but around Tuesday night into about Thursday, low pressure drifting around near Ireland could eventually bring another heavy rainfall event in the total range of 40-70 mms (spread out over several days).

TODAY ... Further outbreaks of rain, moderately heavy at times, with the odd rumble of thunder, will continue to drift east. Some places have seen 10-20 mms overnight and will see a few more, but ahead of the band in parts of Leinster, that 10-20 mms are yet to come. Meanwhile further north, the day will be more variable and only a few isolated showers are likely. Since the rain may be followed by some brighter intervals, most places will have a chance to warm up to 16-18 C and a few places could reach 19 C.

TONIGHT ... Fog, drizzle or light rain redeveloping, lows 11-13 C.

TUESDAY ... Mostly cloudy with showers and some heavy thunderstorms developing, potential for 15-30 mms rain. Highs 17-19 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Overcast, periods of rain and some embedded heavy storms. Heavier amounts are likely in Connacht and inland Leinster towards Waterford, as low pressure may tend to circle around and drift in that direction. Lows near 11-12 C and highs 16-18 C. Potential for 20-40 mms rain.

THURSDAY ... Further showers and a few thunderstorms possible, lows around 11 C and highs 15-17 C. Winds becoming light northeast.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, a few more showers or thundershowers, lows around 9 C and highs around 16 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Models are currently divided on the further progress of the slow-moving low, some have it drifting away and allowing higher pressure to build, others want to keep it around through the weekend into early the following week. Would say more likely to stay unsettled but keep fingers crossed.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... The intense heat continues over much of the eastern U.S. with more heavy storms likely to develop in a few spots, once the current overnight rounds die out this morning, they are likely to redevelop in similar locations later today. A more organized front is drifting east across the Canadian prairies and northern plains states with cells as far south as Kansas, but some of these will be more lightning than rain. Unsettled further west as a persistent trough hangs around the west coast (sound familiar?).

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, warmer than recent days, highs near 21 C on Sunday.

Wednesday, 4 July, 2012
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ALERT continued for locally heavy rainfalls of 30-50 mms, amounts are likely to be quite variable but due to the slow-moving nature of intense showers today and tomorrow, some western districts in particular could see flooding rainfalls. Another heavy rainfall event will arrive from the southeast on Friday.

TODAY ... Cloudy to start, with brief intervals of brighter skies, as bands of moderate to heavy showery rain with some thunder move into western counties. Amounts of 20-40 mms rain could fall in parts of Mayo, Galway, Clare, Kerry, Limerick and Cork, and 10-20 mms a little further east, but much less rain is likely in parts of the east, until quite late. Also, a few lingering heavy showers in Donegal and Derry. Highs today 16-19 C mildest in the inland northern parts of Leinster into east central Ulster. Winds across most of the east will be SSE 15-30 mph, somewhat lighter in the west as stacked low pressure drifts towards the southwest coast from the Atlantic.

TONIGHT ... Further outbreaks of heavy showery rain, 10-20 mms potential, some thunder possible. Amounts likely heaviest from central Connacht southeast into east Munster and south Leinster. Mild with fog patches, light to moderate southeast backing to east winds, lows 11-13 C.

THURSDAY ... Showers and local thunderstorms, also a few sunny breaks, winds east 15-30 mph, highs 16-18 C mildest in the west and southwest. Rainfalls generally about 10 mms but variable due to the showery nature of this outbreak.

FRIDAY ... Cloudy and mild, humid, with southeast winds 15-30 mph, intervals of rain becoming rather heavy across the east and spreading into other regions later, 15-30 mms possible. Lows near 12 C and highs near 17 C.

SATURDAY ... Heavy showery rains with some thunder, breaking to partly cloudy later in the day, winds NE 15-30 mph, lows near 12 C and highs near 16 C east to 18 C west.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, isolated showers, some decent sunny intervals for central and western districts. Lows near 11 C and highs 16-19 C (warmer in west).

MONDAY ... Cloudy with a few breaks, showers and isolated thunderstorms. Highs near 19 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Unsettled seems to be the default value again, still looking for any reliable signs of higher pressure building from south.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Heat is actually intensifying in some central regions and lessening slightly in the Great Lakes and northeast states although it will remain warmer than average there. Highs to 40-43 C likely in the central plains and parts of the Midwest including Chicago, with high and oppressive humidity. Strong thunderstorms continue to move east in several waves across the Great Lakes, northern plains and Canadian prairies. Improving from showers to partly cloudy near the west coast.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Tuesday was a cloudy, drizzly day with little further accumulation of rain and highs near 17 C. Local thunderstorms developed but largely avoided this location.

Friday, 6 July, 2012
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ALERT for heavy rainfalls in southeast counties today, 20-40 mms potential, flash flooding may occur especially in east-central Wicklow and north Wexford. ADVANCE ALERT for moderate to heavy rains in the north tonight and Saturday morning, 15-30 mms likely.

TODAY ... Periods of rain will sweep into the south (rather soon this morning with another wave due mid-day to afternoon) with occasional thunder, but this rain is likely to be heavy mostly on the east side of the Wicklow and Dublin Mountains, fragmenting somewhat further west. Amounts of 20-40 mms likely from Dublin south to Wexford, and there may be a sharp "cut-off" of heavier amounts around Dublin. Noticeable "rainshadow" effects likely further west but some other parts of the south could see 10-20 mms mainly in other "upslope" areas as winds come in from the east at 10-20 mph. Outside of the southeast, variable cloud with isolated showers and risk of a brief thundershower. Rainfalls trace to 5 mms. Highs for most around 16-18 C.

TONIGHT ... The rain in the south should become more showery and begin to fragment into showers while generally pulling away to the south as winds back to northeast 15-25 mph, with low cloud and fog, lows near 11 C. Further north, a second (or third) wave of heavy rain (15-30 mms) with some thunder is likely to sweep into east Ulster and then extend in less intense form towards Connacht. This area is likely to break down into showers and isolated thundershowers mid-morning with remnants drifting south. Lows about 9-11 C.

SATURDAY ... Remnants of earlier northern activity will drift south and some brief sunny intervals may also develop, with winds NNE 15-25 mph backing further to NNW during the afternoon. Quite variable conditions are likely with isolated heavy showers, some other places seeing longer dry intervals, and some showers of less intensity or drizzle. Highs 15-17 C.

SUNDAY, MONDAY ... Variable cloud both days, some reasonably long dry spells or sunny intervals, and occasional showers on a hit or miss basis giving about 3-5 mms in a few spots. Heavier showers could develop across the north later Monday. Highs each day near 16 C north to 19 C south.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Still watching for that long overdue improvement, models this morning are generally leaning towards an unsettled westerly type flow but with the high pressure slowly gaining some ground to the southwest.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... The intense heat will continue today across large portions of the U.S. and while it holds on in the northeast, the core is actually shifting slowly west into the plains states, and allowing the Pacific northwest and British Columbia to warm up. An outbreak of heavy to intense storms is likely later today and tonight in South Dakota, Minnesota, northern Iowa, Wisconsin and northern Illinois, after a day in the Chicago region near 40 C, there could be heavy overnight storms there as well.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Thursday was sunny and rather warm at 22 C, with a sea breeze just reaching this location, about 25-28 C further inland; forecasts are for a heat wave to develop around here on the weekend.

Sunday, 8 July, 2012
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TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, intervals of light rain or drizzle more persistent in eastern counties, but amounts generally light (2-4 mms), some parts of west and south could remain largely dry with brief sunny intervals, all in a moderate northerly breeze 10-20 mph ... highs 15-18 C mildest in south.

TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy to overcast, just a few isolated showers, amounts trace to 2 mms ... lows 11-13 C.

MONDAY ... Partly cloudy, isolated showers, highs 16-19 C.

TUESDAY ... Morning showers fairly widespread, some improvement later to partly cloudy, lows near 11 C and highs near 17 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy to overcast, light showers, lows near 10 C and highs near 17 C.

THURSDAY ... Intervals of light to moderate rain, 5-10 mms likely, a bit more humid with lows 11-13 C and highs 16-18 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Little change, unsettled but not too wet compared to recent weeks.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... The focus of heat seems to be shifting west for a while, although it will remain hot in parts of the central plains states, but the northeast and Great Lakes have now escaped to a more moderate seasonable warmth (25-30 C) with scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms likely. The Washington DC area could see very heavy showers later today as they escape from the torrid heat (41 C on Saturday). So, warm and dry spreading well to the west now into parts of the inland northwest and western Canada.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Just about perfect on Saturday with sunshine, highs near 23 C in a light sea breeze, a few degrees warmer further inland. It may get a few degrees warmer today and Monday as the sea breeze is cut off by more of a southeast flow. A bit hazy on the coast but smoke from Colorado fires has spread into parts of central B.C. and we might see more of that here eventually. It has been too wet in B.C. for much of a forest fire hazard but a week or two of this may change the risks.

Tuesday, 10 July, 2012
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TODAY ... Variable cloud to start, with isolated showers, but a more organized band of showery rain likely to move into the west during the morning and then become more thundery as it reaches the eastern counties this afternoon ... rainfalls 5-10 mms west, eventually 10-15 mms east ... highs about 16-18 C for most. Northwesterly breezes developing later with some gusts to 30 mph.

TONIGHT ... Showers clearing east, then partly cloudy and rather cool with fog or mist patches, lows 7-9 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, showers, one or two heavier thundershowers possible, rainfalls generally 3-7 mms, highs 15-17 C.

THURSDAY ... Increasing cloud, outbreaks of moderate rain becoming heavy in a few places (inland south most likely), rainfalls 10-20 mms, lows 7-9 C and highs 15-17 C.

FRIDAY ... Showers, moderate northwest winds, lows near 9 C and highs near 16 C.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy, isolated showers, lows near 8 C and highs around 17 C.

SUNDAY ... Sunny intervals, a bit warmer, highs near 19 C.

OUTLOOK ... Some showers likely around Monday but longer term, somewhat better indications now for a settled and warmer period later in the month. I am hoping that we can get a decent warm spell out of this developing Azores high, as it begins to show signs of building into the south later next week.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Although the severe heat is largely done now, the air mass that has replaced it is at least seasonably warm if not a bit above normal, and has pushed a very active front south into the Gulf coast and southeast states where heavy storms are now becoming widespread. It remains very dry in the Midwest and Great Lakes, northeast states. Very warm air also covers most of the west as far north as the Canadian subarctic and highs of 32-36 C are common across the Canadian prairies and northern plains, with isolated thundershowers.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Monday was very warm and sunny (hazy at times) with highs near 28 C locally, 35-40 C further inland.

Thursday, 12 July, 2012
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TODAY ... Heavy rain at times this morning across the south coastal counties, but this will not move much further north before sliding away to the east mid-day ... some much lighter rain is trying to push east across the central counties but don't be surprised if it amounts to very little in the Midlands and Dublin region, and meanwhile Ulster is almost certain to remain mostly dry ... some sunny intervals may accompany the dry weather in the east and north ... highs only 15-16 C south due to low cloud and rain, but could reach 18 or 19 C further north (16-17 likely west coast). Winds rather light for most except some moderate SE veering to WSW in the far south.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with clear intervals, just a few isolated showers, lows around 7 to 9 C.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, showers although amounts generally slight (2-5 mms) and a bit on the cool side with highs around 17 C.

SATURDAY ... A mixture of cloud and sunshine, isolated showers, moderate west to northwest winds. Slight risk of a thunderstorm mid-day. Lows about 6 or 7 C then highs 17-19 C.

SUNDAY ... Sunny intervals, a few showers mainly confined to northwest coastal districts, highs near 18 C (could touch 20 C south).

MONDAY ... Warmer for the south, low cloud and drizzle or light rain may linger in the west and north but meanwhile southeast (especially inland) could see 20-22 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The pattern beyond Monday continues to look vaguely encouraging with hints of higher pressures and therefore warmer temperatures than of late, but I am not wildly optimistic (yet), would suggest most likely outcome is the odd dry day, and showery days not too chilly or overly wet. Drying therefore could at least improve slowly.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Hot and dry in many parts of the continent but heavy rainfalls southeast and Gulf coasts, the severe heat has been redirected to western Canada where it isn't quite as extreme (32-35 C mainly) although the desert southwest region is baking in 43-46 C highs.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Wednesday was quite a hot day with a weak sea breeze failing to reach my location although it kept the airport at 22 C for a high, felt like 31 C a mere 10 kms inland here. Considerable haze from forest fire smoke wafting over the Bering Sea from Siberia.

Saturday, 14 July, 2012
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TODAY ... A mixture of cloud and sunshine with just isolated passing showers allowing quite a few places to remain dry ... any rainfalls will be generally in the 1-3 mm range ... a slight risk of a thunderstorm in central counties ... highs 17-19 C in a moderate WNW breeze 15-30 mph (one club wind, maybe two if you're old and weak like me) .

TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy with longer clear spells in south, lows 6-9 C (but well before most people are up, then it will be 12-15 C).

SUNDAY ... Sunny intervals, increasing cloud in west, some light rain by evening in west Munster, coastal Mayo. Isolated showers developing further inland. Highs 18-20 C.

MONDAY ... Cloudy with drizzle, low cloud west and north, trending to partly cloudy or sunny further east, with increasing cloud there later, light rain spreading gradually towards central counties, warm and humid with lows around 11 C and highs around 19-21 C.

TUESDAY ... Cloudy, showers, mild to warm, humid, lows about 13 C and highs about 20 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Showers or periods of rain, 10-15 mms potential, lows near 12 C and highs 17-18 C.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, seasonable, isolated showers. Highs around 19 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... All reliable models seem to be converging on a much warmer pattern starting around the weekend of the 21st-22nd and allowing higher pressure to build in from the southwest. This could involve some low cloud, fog or mist near the outer south and west coast and patchy low cloud further inland, but sunshine would boost temperatures to the mid-20s at times elsewhere. The pattern seems progressive and could lead to very warm or even hot weather eventually. We have a contest underway in the forum if you want to try your skill at predicting the highest temperature and when/where that will happen. (It already was 27.8 at Shannon back in May, so this may or may not be a new high for the year).

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Hot and humid in most regions but exceptionally hot in some parts of the northern plains and southern prairies, while more of a near-normal heat in many other regions at present. A weak but potentially active frontal trough is forming over the Great Lakes and could bring a few heavy storms to Wisconsin, Michigan and Ontario later. Portions of northern IL, IN and OH are also in a marginal severe category. Further south it's more of a heavy rainfall situation along a stalled old frontal boundary from last week that has decided to drift back north now.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Friday was sunny and warm (25 C) with passing virga showers (a few raindrops fell out of one but I was the only person who noticed them, I think). Weak thundershowers have formed in the region this evening and are drifting west to die over the cold water of the Pacific. We're expecting a similar day on Saturday then low cloud and a cooler marine layer on Sunday.

Just for fun, I will post the occasional cloud-dominated photo to remind people about the Cloud Festival (see thread elsewhere). This one is a sunset shot with extensive cirrus (at Crescent Beach south of Vancouver).