Risk of very warm and sunny weather next week

darkman2 · 22-09-2011 5:16pm #1

Looks like an Indian Summer is likely to begin from later Monday onward. Temperatures could soar for the time of year into the low twenties with lots of warm sunshine as winds go more South to Southeasterly.:)

Oh and watch out for them imported Thunderstorms from the Bay of Biscay too!

:cool:

fizzycyst · 22-09-2011 6:02pm

Yayee Darkman! we can always count on you to cheer us up weather wise

Weylin · 22-09-2011 6:06pm

seeing is believing!:cool:

Strangegravy · 22-09-2011 6:24pm

Still a good bit off but would be nice to get one big blast of heat for a couple weeks before changing into an extreme cold set up, just skip any bland, wet, blah weather and go straight from extreme heat to extreme cold! I can hope...

Elmer Blooker · 22-09-2011 6:33pm

I thought there was a thread already about next week's Indian summer.
Why not have another I suppose?

Pangea · 22-09-2011 6:42pm

*Cough

7th September

Pangea wrote: »

Word has it that Michael Gallagher said the weather will be good for the end of September.

mike65 · 22-09-2011 6:49pm

Dammit where's the snow!

Anyway we know how these threads go, several times this year it's looked like a settled spell was in the offing but sure as eggs is eggs the high pressure is always too far away to make a stand.

Lucreto · 22-09-2011 7:10pm

I just watched the weather after the 6 O Clock news and at the end it had Monday showers with 14C and Tuesday showers with 15C.

BEASTERLY · 22-09-2011 7:12pm

Risk of a slightly warm settled spell:eek: Give it to us straight darkman, were going to be killed aren't we?.... I knew it as soon as I saw the yellow triangle:(

cherryghost · 22-09-2011 7:13pm

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Risk of a slightly warm settled spell:eek: Give it to us straight darkman, were going to be killed aren't we?.... I knew it as soon as I saw the yellow triangle:(

I believe its the first sign of the apocalypse.

BEASTERLY · 22-09-2011 7:18pm

cherryghost wrote: »

I believe its the first sign of the apocalypse.

The yellow triangle?

cherryghost · 22-09-2011 7:19pm

BEASTERLY wrote: »

The yellow triangle?

The Yellow Triangle, the forthcoming weather... we're all DOOMED!

leahyl · 22-09-2011 7:25pm

It's the calm sunny weather before the snowstorm, so to speak, ahem...! :-p

darkman2 · 22-09-2011 7:31pm

The forecast looks fairly solid with high temperatures expected next week (low - mid 20's) and the risk of some thundery showers from the south later in the week. The Ensemble members are quite tight in the medium term so good confidence. Fingers crossed.:cool:

Lucreto · 22-09-2011 7:36pm

darkman2 wrote: »

The forecast looks fairly solid with high temperatures expected next week (low - mid 20's) and the risk of some thundery showers from the south later in the week. The Ensemble members are quite tight in the medium term so good confidence. Fingers crossed.:cool:

Maybe you should email that to Met Eireann as they are saying something different. From what I read elsewhere it will be gone by Wednesday.

darkman2 · 22-09-2011 7:40pm

Lucreto wrote: »

Maybe you should email that to Met Eireann as they are saying something different.

Maybe they should email me and ask me for the forecast.;)

P.S if the 15c 850hpa isotherm gets over the country next week temperatures could reach 26 - possibly even 27c even at the end of September. Though that's later next week...

Harps · 22-09-2011 7:56pm

Met Eireann said it looks like high pressure will dominate our weather next week, how is that any different to whats being discussed here?

M.T. Cranium · 22-09-2011 7:59pm

I love the use of the word "risk" in this context. Agreed that the maps show potential for a warm spell, let's hope this one actually materializes as there have been two or three phantom warm spells at 5-8 days on the models earlier this year. It makes sense on two fronts, first of all the tropical storm track gradually shifted further north as we moved through mid-September so this high is a natural response to that northward shift of warmth further west, and also, you don't often see a year with only one or two significant warm spells (saying February and April so far had these) so we or more to the point you are well overdue for a third (or fourth if you count the brief early June warm spell).

There is currently anomalous warmth developing between 90W and 110W over west-central North America, temperatures there will soon be as much as 10-15 C above normal, with suggestions of a meridional pattern developing. This usually propagates east over time (meaning that large ridge-trough couplets will form downstream across the Atlantic and Europe after they appear in North America). You just have to keep your fingers crossed that you're under a ridge or at least near enough to one. Looks that way at the moment. The warm spell could last 2-3 weeks in my estimation, and break down rather comprehensively mid-October.

Lucreto · 22-09-2011 8:15pm

darkman2 wrote: »

Maybe they should email me and ask me for the forecast.;)

P.S if the 15c 850hpa isotherm gets over the country next week temperatures could reach 26 - possibly even 27c even at the end of September. Though that's later next week...

I think you are too optimistic over the weather.

Met Eireann is saying at the moment

"Monday will be a bright day, with sunny spells, some scattered showers will occur, most of them in the southwest, west and north. Cool, with light to moderate west to southwest winds. Tuesday onwards : Early indications suggest that it will remain unsettled and changeable."

octo · 22-09-2011 8:39pm

You can be sure that Met Eireann are also watching the ensemble forecasts....

patneve2 · 22-09-2011 8:39pm

Feeling optimistic about a nice ridge embracing our shores sometime next week....i would say coastal temperatures 16-18 and inland 20-22 (possible 24 in some places)...fingers crossed and i hope the 18z and future model runs confirm the trend of a hot breath of air from the south :cool:

km79 · 22-09-2011 9:04pm

"risk of" ? more like "I dream of "

MUSEIST · 22-09-2011 9:24pm

I don't care what the temperature is as long as its sunny and bright. I am sick of this greyness and blehness we had earlier this week.

Hope that ridge builds and sticks around for an indian summer:)

followed by epic snows of course

NIALL D · 22-09-2011 9:28pm

MUSEIST wrote: »

I don't care what the temperature is as long as its sunny and bright. I am sick of this greyness and blehness we had earlier this week.

Hope that ridge builds and sticks around for an indian summer:)

followed by epic snows of course

like the last bit

followed by epic snows of course

thetonynator · 22-09-2011 9:36pm

I'll believe it when i see it . . .too many of these have ended in mist and cloud.

M.T. Cranium · 22-09-2011 9:47pm

There was an epic warm spell at the end of September 1895, at least for the CET series, highs were in the 28-30 C range for almost a week there, and from the maps I would assume at least 25-27 C in parts of Ireland too.

Here's a map for the penultimate day of that warm spell.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1895/Rrea00118950929.gif

It started out similar to the pattern in today's model runs and high pressure built west across Ireland into the Atlantic. The pattern rapidly broke down around the first of October and the rest of that month became much colder than average, especially near the end of the month when the CET mean was near freezing for two or three days in a northerly flow. You can see that pattern here:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1895/Rrea00118951029.gif

nacho libre · 22-09-2011 9:47pm

It will be interesting to see if this could develop into a situation whereby a band of thunderstorms come up fom Biscay eventually. Too bad I'll miss all the action if it does.

bb1234567 · 22-09-2011 10:07pm

rather skip straight to the early snowmaggedon thank you very much. had my fair share of summer days supposed to be warm but turned out cold and wet for one year,too little too late imo..start of september is when its nice to have lovely warm indian summer weather, by mid september i just want autumn to be under way, and then this big cold snowy winter thats supposed to happen

Musicman2000 · 22-09-2011 10:24pm

bb1234567 wrote: »

rather skip straight to the early snowmaggedon thank you very much. had my fair share of summer days supposed to be warm but turned out cold and wet for one year,too little too late imo..start of september is when its nice to have lovely warm indian summer weather, by mid september i just want autumn to be under way, and then this big cold snowy winter thats supposed to happen

Ok bb 12344567, I think you could be very disapointed if your waiting on this so called snowy spell:)

DarkJager · 22-09-2011 10:27pm

Can we please have the words "snow" and "winter" added to the swear filter until November?

I can see the thread titles now: "What are the chances of some heavy **** this ******?"

Lucreto · 22-09-2011 10:37pm

bb1234567 wrote: »

rather skip straight to the early snowmaggedon thank you very much. had my fair share of summer days supposed to be warm but turned out cold and wet for one year,too little too late imo..start of september is when its nice to have lovely warm indian summer weather, by mid september i just want autumn to be under way, and then this big cold snowy winter thats supposed to happen

I'm with bb1234567

Summers finished and I am not expecting 20c weather again this year. If we go get this weather I expect it to be cloudy and humid with little sunshine and the temperature dropping back at night.

delw · 22-09-2011 11:15pm

a bit of warm sunshine & may be a bit of thunder in the mix would be nice(if it comes off),plenty of time after that for our wintery weather

Mountainsandh · 22-09-2011 11:19pm

Yeah... I'm in autumn mode too. Would much prefer crisp cold sunny days tbh at this stage, with lovely mist in the mornings that lifts and makes everything beautiful. Not a sticky humid fog that clings.

Min · 22-09-2011 11:36pm

I would love some warm dry weather. It is overdue, as it has been a cool summer. The best weather was from February to April.
Winter will be long enough and a bit of heat before it would be welcome. Temperatures in the mid 20's would be heaven at this stage.
Personally I would look forward to slapping on the sun cream.

Pangea · 22-09-2011 11:59pm

They say we should put on sun cream even in ordinary weather Min so feel free to do so even if it doesn't heat up next week

.
I agree with your assessment that the best weather was from Feb to April, It needed to be said.

4gun · 23-09-2011 12:14am

Lucreto wrote: »

I think you are too optimistic over the weather.

Met Eireann is saying at the moment

"Monday will be a bright day, with sunny spells, some scattered showers will occur, most of them in the southwest, west and north. Cool, with light to moderate west to southwest winds. Tuesday onwards : Early indications suggest that it will remain unsettled and changeable."

I think met eireann say that every day

highdef · 23-09-2011 12:15am

If the weather does indeed get nice and warm and sunny, I think at this time of the year, sunscreen would most likely not be needed unless you have very very fair skin and plan to be in the sun a lot. At the beginning of October, the sun is not very strong at all, UV wise. It may feel warm but UV levels are equivalent to early to mid March levels and I don't think many people put on sunscreen then, even if the sun is shining.

Having said that, there's no harm at all in slapping on some sunscreen - it ain't cheap though!

peckerhead · 23-09-2011 12:18am

So, what d'you reckon Jean Byrne will be wearing?

fizzycyst · 23-09-2011 1:00am

highdef wrote: »

If the weather does indeed get nice and warm and sunny, I think at this time of the year, sunscreen would most likely not be needed unless you have very very fair skin and plan to be in the sun a lot. At the beginning of October, the sun is not very strong at all, UV wise. It may feel warm but UV levels are equivalent to early to mid March levels and I don't think many people put on sunscreen then, even if the sun is shining.

Having said that, there's no harm at all in slapping on some sunscreen - it ain't cheap though!

Someone just started at thread this evening relating to this topic, children not getting enough vitamin D and whatnot. Honestly I'm of the opinion that we need some sun, I mean isn't it essential that we allow ourselves to get some sunshine throughout the year, without overdoing it obviously.

Personally, I love Autumn sunshine. Bring it on

dsmythy · 23-09-2011 1:35am

Pangea wrote: »

*Cough

7th September

Yeah the same guy also said it would be a dry and quiet first half of the month. This prediction he hasn't mentioned again of course.....

Pangea · 23-09-2011 1:54am

dsmythy wrote: »

Yeah the same guy also said it would be a dry and quiet first half of the month. This prediction he hasn't mentioned again of course.....

This month? Do you have a link? I never heard any predictions of his for the start of this month.

dsmythy · 23-09-2011 2:00am

Pangea wrote: »

This month? Do you have a link? I never heard any predictions of his for the start of this month.

Sorry I have my predictors mixed up. That was that Ring chap. Havn't a clue what Gallagher predicted for early September though if he was right we'd no doubt have been told about it

dsmythy · 23-09-2011 2:28am

We will probably have to see whether TS Ophelia survives her tortuous journey around the Atlantic before deciding on the intensity or otherwise of any thundery outbreak caused by the high. I'm still worried this 'indian summer' won't happen and the high slips back south to a more regular position.

Pangea · 23-09-2011 2:39am

dsmythy wrote: »

Sorry I have my predictors mixed up. That was that Ring chap. Havn't a clue what Gallagher predicted for early September though if he was right we'd no doubt have been told about it

lol no the good spell of weather at the end of september is the first forecast I have heard from him in a long time.

Birdnuts · 23-09-2011 8:28am

This sounds like 85' all over again - crap summer followed by a heatwave at the end of September/start of October. Personally I would prefer my heatwaves in Summer proper as the days are swiftly shortning now. But I guess beggers can't be choosers:rolleyes:

Blizzard 2010 · 23-09-2011 9:06am

peckerhead wrote: »

So, what d'you reckon Jean Byrne will be wearing?

Something dishy no doubt:D

Speak Now · 23-09-2011 9:34am

Lucreto wrote: »

I think you are too optimistic over the weather.

Met Eireann is saying at the moment

"Monday will be a bright day, with sunny spells, some scattered showers will occur, most of them in the southwest, west and north. Cool, with light to moderate west to southwest winds. Tuesday onwards : Early indications suggest that it will remain unsettled and changeable."

They now say " MID-WEEK PERIOD: Warm, humid, breezy days are expected with moderate to fresh southerly breezes. Some rain and drizzle likely, mainly in the west, heavy at times. But a good deal of bright weather also, with sunny spells. Temperatures in the mid to high teens on Tuesday, are expected to rise into the high teens on Wednesday and low twenties thereafter. "

davidsr20 · 23-09-2011 9:48am

I don't like all this warm period talk lol now where's the snow ha

Aiel · 23-09-2011 10:59am

I never thought i'd say this but i wouldnt mind it cooling down a bit from those projected temps for Saturday week,1st Oct.Ive a half marathon race that morning and so im rooting for a lovely cooling breeze to give me some help:).

cherryghost · 23-09-2011 11:07am

Forecast is breaking down already. Oh well.

EDIT: Nope, 0Z seemed like a glitch. Everything further west on 06Z

Speak Now · 23-09-2011 11:28am

Still a week away

Risk of very warm and sunny weather next week

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