2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

Timing belt · 10-02-2021 8:37am

Cyrus wrote: »

I don’t disagree with most of this but I disagree with how impactful it will be, people that are career focused (int the main ) will still spend more of their time in the office than at home, they will still need to be commutable and will in the main be the higher earners who will dictate the prices for houses in desirable areas commutable to wherever their office is.

And this boards notion of some imbecilic middle manager who just monitors everyone all day and has now been found out is a straw man that disappeared from the work place decades ago I literally have never come across someone like that .

Employers will need to be careful or they will be before the courts if they don’t treat wfh employees the same as employees in the office

PropQueries · 10-02-2021 8:40am

Timing belt wrote: »

That would be a long commute for the days when you need to be in the office

3 hours drive. Road is quite good. As I said, it's just a quick back of the envelope example at this time in the morning

But, I personally don't see the WFH, once it's implemented, staying at 2 or 3 days in the office and 2 or 3 days at home.

Over time it will most likely gradually move to maybe once a month (if at all) in the office as what's the point in coming into the office 2 days a week if a person is able to WFH for the other 3 days. Seems pointless to me in most cases IMO

Timing belt · 10-02-2021 8:47am

PropQueries wrote: »

3 hours drive. Road is quite good. As I said, it's just a quick back of the envelope example at this time in the morning

But, I personally don't see the WFH, once it's implemented, staying at 2 or 3 days in the office and 2 or 3 days at home.

Over time it will most likely gradually move to maybe once a month in the office as what's the point in coming into the office 2 days a week if a person is able to WFH for the other 3 days. Seems pointless to me in most cases IMO

3 hours with no traffic....so leaving at 5:00 in morning to get in for 9:00 and home at 10:00.

Unless I had family or land there it wouldn’t be an option worth considering imo

10-02-2021 8:51am

Timing belt wrote: »

That would be a long commute for the days when you need to be in the office

If it's only one day a week, then it's easy to do

PropQueries · 10-02-2021 8:57am

bubblypop wrote: »

If it's only one day a week, then it's easy to do

True. And, I also think this "blended" WFH/Office idea will be very very temporary.

What's really the point in forcing staff into the office for 2 days a week when the employer is perfectly happy and has obviously no security concerns regarding them working from home the other 3 days?

Here's a good example from 2017 which is way way before full time remote working became mainstream thinking.

The people in this article work in Tralee and work remotely for companies such as Rabobank, Zurich Insurance etc. It's in a hub but shows where it's going IMO

Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/retail-and-services/tralee-start-up-hub-puts-workers-at-the-centre-of-things-1.3113984

Timing belt · 10-02-2021 9:17am

bubblypop wrote: »

If it's only one day a week, then it's easy to do

If you had no connection to the place would you really choose somewhere that is a 3/4 hour drive away or would you pick somewhere closer... It's like saying everyone will move to live in Leitrim as they have the cheapest houses.

jill_valentine · 10-02-2021 9:33am

Timing belt wrote: »

If you had no connection to the place would you really choose somewhere that is a 3/4 hour drive away or would you pick somewhere closer... It's like saying everyone will move to live in Leitrim as they have the cheapest houses.

For a lot of folks like myself, the options would be a) buy outside of Dublin or b) rent in Dublin forever.

Renting in Ireland is awful so owning a home in Leitrim, if you only have to commute part of the week, isn't the self evidently unappealing option you might think. After a year or two in lockdown, pubs may not be to the forefront of anyone's mind. Somewhere like Cavan town has plenty of them anyway, and plenty of affordable property, if you could work from there.

Wrt to middle management - with the transition to WFH a number of companies I know have invested heavily in workload planning/KPI monitoring platforms which, themselves, requires management. Managing it is a more or less full time role and people doing it are effectively middle management.

I'll note too that my companies' management are pretty much full time WFH for the last year, with maybe a day or two every two months in office. It's the footsoldiers like me who still have to come in. So in practice being full time WFH isn't considered a barrier to advancing, it's just a luxury of rank.

TheSheriff · 10-02-2021 9:34am

bubblypop wrote: »

If it's only one day a week, then it's easy to do

If it's one day per week required

Our very liberal WFH policy the past few years (WFH any two days per week whenever you like) was built on the premise you would be available to the company in person when needed for meetings etc.

This will likely make you think twice about the move to castlebar.

You had WFH booked on a Monday, but there's a team meeting etc. Then you came in, without question.

To think the company won't reserve this right is head in the sky stuff.

To also believe WFH won't come with many many clauses is head in the sky stuff.

10-02-2021 9:38am

Timing belt wrote: »

If you had no connection to the place would you really choose somewhere that is a 3/4 hour drive away or would you pick somewhere closer... It's like saying everyone will move to live in Leitrim as they have the cheapest houses.

But lots of people do have connections down the country.
My brother & the girlfriend were looking at Mayo, no connections there.

Just as an aside, I knew a woman over 15 years ago, lived in Galway and travelled to Dublin once a week to the office.

Edit, depending where, leitrim is only two hours from Dublin:)

awec · 10-02-2021 9:41am

schmittel wrote: »

If the holy grail is the luas green line is that not sort of proving the point that the biggest attraction these properties is not the area itself, but the ease with which you can get somewhere else?

Of course? The ease of which you can get somewhere else is a huge factor.

Dundrum is popular because it’s a nice area and you can be in Stephen’s green in 20 minutes.

PropQueries · 10-02-2021 9:45am

TheSheriff wrote: »

If it's one day per week required

Our very liberal WFH policy the past few years (WFH any two days per week whenever you like) was built on the premise you would be available to the company in person when needed for meetings etc.

This will likely make you think twice about the move to castle at.

You had WFH booked on a Monday, but there's a team meeting etc. Then you came in, without question.

To think the company won't reserve this right is head in the sky stuff.

Pre-Zoom?

A lot has changed in relation to how meetings take place over the past 11 months IMO

Yes, they had such software before, but now everyone is used to it including upper management.

Zenify · 10-02-2021 9:46am

Does anyone know if the shared equity scheme is 100% going ahead? No recent articles on it and I can't find if it has passed or not...?

I'm just hoping to god they don't do it.

The_Conductor · 10-02-2021 9:46am

awec wrote: »

Of course? The ease of which you can get somewhere else is a huge factor.

Dundrum is popular because it’s a nice area and you can be in Stephen’s green in 20 minutes.

30 years ago- the only thing Dundrum had going for it- was proximity to UCD, and it was student land- a-la Rathmines or Clonskeagh.

Dundrum is somewhere you can commute from- and there is an inherent need to commute from there, given its current primary selling points are that massive shopping centre and its cinema.

Personally- I just don't get the fascination people have with living in Dundrum- I don't deny that for some people its the be-all and end-all, for me, I'm scratching my head as to just why its such a 'desirable' place to live, I just don't see it as having, well anything- other than good transport links.

Perhaps I'm being unfair- but I genuinely don't see what the area has to justify the irrational draw people have to it.

PropQueries · 10-02-2021 9:48am

awec wrote: »

Of course? The ease of which you can get somewhere else is a huge factor.

Dundrum is popular because it’s a nice area and you can be in Stephen’s green in 20 minutes.

But there's no benefit to being close to Stephen's Green anymore. And being 20 minutes to St. Stephen's Green is definitely not worth paying an extra €200k for a house for the vast majority of families IMO

Interested Observer · 10-02-2021 9:48am

schmittel wrote: »

If the holy grail is the luas green line is that not sort of proving the point that the biggest attraction these properties is not the area itself, but the ease with which you can get somewhere else?

Weird post imo, one of the attractions of any place is the ease by which you can get somewhere else. It's why 1m+ people live in Dublin and relatively very few people live in West Cork or Inishowen.

awec · 10-02-2021 9:50am

The_Conductor wrote: »

30 years ago- the only thing Dundrum had going for it- was proximity to UCD, and it was student land- a-la Rathmines or Clonskeagh.

Dundrum is somewhere you can commute from- and there is an inherent need to commute from there, given its current primary selling points are that massive shopping centre and its cinema.

Personally- I just don't get the fascination people have with living in Dundrum- I don't deny that for some people its the be-all and end-all, for me, I'm scratching my head as to just why its such a 'desirable' place to live, I just don't see it as having, well anything- other than good transport links.

Perhaps I'm being unfair- but I genuinely don't see what the area has to justify the irrational draw people have to it.

Who cares what it was like 30 years ago?

It has frequent, cheap and short travel times into the city centre. And I mean right into the city centre, unlike the DART. While this is a big commute factor, it is also a huge social factor. You can also easily get to other popular places like Ranelagh very quickly and easily.

You can have the suburban house with a city lifestyle and you car could spend the majority of it's time sitting on your driveway.

awec · 10-02-2021 9:52am

PropQueries wrote: »

But there's no benefit to being close to Stephen's Green anymore. And being 20 minutes to St. Stephen's Green is definitely not worth paying an extra €200k for a house for the vast majority of families IMO

This is nonsense. I see we're back to just making things up again PropQueries.

L1011 · 10-02-2021 9:56am

awec wrote: »

It has frequent, cheap and short travel times into the city centre. And I mean right into the city centre, unlike the DART.

Tara Street, particularly the rear entrance, is right in the city centre.

awec · 10-02-2021 9:58am

L1011 wrote: »

Tara Street, particularly the rear entrance, is right in the city centre.

Yea fair point. I get the DART into the city now when I used to get the Luas, I always feel like I have to walk more after getting off the DART to get to somewhere I'd want to go, but that's maybe just me.

10-02-2021 9:59am

I don't know has this got anything to do with housing. If you look into media leaks coming from the government it appears they are prepping the population for tax hikes and rocky financial times ahead...

PropQueries · 10-02-2021 10:00am

awec wrote: »

This is nonsense. I see we're back to just making things up again PropQueries.

How popular would Stephen's Green be if there were no offices within walking distance? Stephen's Green is no different to any other town center park in any other town in Ireland IMO

I very much doubt very many people travel to the city to visit Stephen's Green and if an estate agent's selling point is "Stephen's Green is only a 20 minute train ride away", I think they need to update their selling tactic for the WFH generation IMO

hometruths · 10-02-2021 10:01am

awec wrote: »

Of course? The ease of which you can get somewhere else is a huge factor.

Dundrum is popular because it’s a nice area and you can be in Stephen’s green in 20 minutes.

Of course, but the point is if the biggest factor driving the price in Dundrum is that you can be in Stephens green is 20 mins, WFH is likely to impact the price more than somewhere that the biggest factor is, for example, being on the coast.

Cyrus · 10-02-2021 10:05am

PropQueries wrote: »

How popular would Stephen's Green be if there were no offices within walking distance? Stephen's Green is no different to any other town center park in any other town in Ireland IMO

I very much doubt very many people travel to the city to visit Stephen's Green and if an estate agent's selling point is "Stephen's Green is only a 20 minute train ride away", I think they need to update their selling tactic for the WFH generation IMO

the generation that doesnt exist yet? you might be jumping the gun

JimmyVik · 10-02-2021 10:06am

TheSheriff wrote: »

And indeed alot of the counter arguments are, "The cat is out of the bag with regards WFH; its going to change everything; we can all live in the commuter belt; I am moving to Leitrim etc."

Ok, so I haven't seen that last one yet. The point being it will likely release a pressure valve in Dublin, but I wouldn't underestimate the desire of professionals to want to live around other similar professionals.

I don't see a mass exodus of tech workers; similarly as I didn't see a mass exodus of pharma workers when WFH became relatively norm a number of years ago.

WFH will be a god send for those who simply cannot afford to live in Dublin, and great for them.

I think Goatstown will be just fine, and I have absolutely zero vested interested in somewhere like Goatstown!

There are a lot of stars that have to align where a couple with a child or 2 are concerned for them all to move down the country.

Both adults have to decide that
a)Adult one has to want to do it
b)Adult two has to want to do it
c)Adult one has to decide its right for the children to move away
d)Adult two has to decide its right for the children to move away
e)Adult ones employer has to go for it
f)Adult twos employer has to go for it
g)Theres the whole selling and buying aspect too. What if country houses are going up so there isnt much difference anymore between the value of the houses bought and sold for the move.

Cyrus · 10-02-2021 10:08am

DataDude wrote: »

Despite renting in Blackrock for a while, mostly been because I fell into it. Wouldn’t pay the premium to buy there personally. Although it’s improved as of late with the one way and quality in the Blackrock market, there’s only so nice a place can be when it has an Eddie Rockets beside a Wetherspoons. But anyway, I know that wasn’t your point!

Having read back I probably should have been clearer. I’m using examples of the “A-“ places in SCD vs the “A+” places. I’m not throwing Dundrum in with Tallaght or something, I’m particularly focusing on the ‘next best (and most expensive) thing’ after the really top spots. I’m not familiar with prices in Tallaght but I suspect they don’t have anywhere near as far to fall.

Every place will have those who want to live there because they grew up/have family there. But the buyers I’m focusing on are the young high earning blow-ins who haven’t a major affinity to any particular area. As someone in that category, I would have initially looked at Sandymount, Dalkey, Ranleagh etc. Struggled to stomach the prices, where to next?

A year ago if we decided to settle a bit on location we would have 100% have ended up in a slightly less nice area in roughly the same vicinity (e.g. Goatstown/Dundrum). Now there’s no chance we’ll do that. We might still push ourselves to buy in Dalkey. But if we do settle and accept we can’t have our dream location, we’ll settle for somewhere further out because we can now. Hence my supposition that the current differentials between those areas might stretch a bit.

How crucial to the very high prices in these “A-“ areas are my demographic and how representative am I (and a few of my friends in very similar boats) of that demographic? Not sure! Wouldn’t be unusual for someone to overestimate the prevalence of something because they experienced it themselves so I am very open to the fact I’m completely wrong!

I think what you are saying is this, if you won the lotto and had 10m to spend on a house in the morning in dublin where would it be, for most people it will be between blackrock and dalkey if they want to be on the coast, and D4 or D6 if they prefer proximity to the city. (there are some that prefer the northside aswell, so you can include howth and sutton)

Its unlikely to be dundrum, stillorgan, goatstown etc.

So i think thats what you mean by a+ and a- areas.

Maybe im wrong?

TheSheriff · 10-02-2021 10:10am

PropQueries wrote: »

Pre-Zoom?

A lot has changed in relation to how meetings take place over the past 11 months IMO

Yes, they had such software before, but now everyone is used to it including upper management.

Actually no, very little has changed in terms of how meetings take place for some organisations.

I work in a large global company, I spent alot of my day on Skype / zoom calls pre-covid with international arms of the business.

Your arguments don't hold truth.

The fact is, we had a functional WFH / blended policy pre covid.

People still chose to live in the surrounding geographic locations i.e. Dublin, Wicklow, Meath. There was not an exodus to Leitrim because a house was 200k cheaper.

There was a need (imposed by the company) to have a proximity to the office. Unless a company commits to a fully distributed workplace with no office presence this will not change.

I can tell you in the pharma sector this will not happen.

I am not sure how many more times you can be told this. What your suggesting has not happened/may not happen. What I am telling you is fact from the previous years working in a large company which had a WFH policy (and yes we had zoom).

hometruths · 10-02-2021 10:17am

JimmyVik wrote: »

There are a lot of stars that have to align where a couple with a child or 2 are concerned for them all to move down the country.

Both adults have to decide that
a)Adult one has to want to do it

b)Adult two has to want to do it
c)Adult one has to decide its right for the children to move away

d)Adult two has to decide its right for the children to move away

e)Adult ones employer has to go for it

f)Adult twos employer has to go for it
g)Theres the whole selling and buying aspect too. What if country houses are going up so there isnt much difference anymore between the value of the houses bought and sold for the move.

No doubt the impact of WFH will be felt most by buyers who don't yet have children, because clearly uprooting settled kids will be one of the biggest factors affecting any decision.

But, having said that, I am fortunate enough to have the security of owning my house - I took that a bit for granted until I had kids. Now I realise just how important it is.

If I was renting with two small kids, the most important factor to me would be security of housing in a good area. Far more important than their schools, my job, partners job etc.

If it was a stretch for me to buy in a good area in Dublin, but I could afford a decent area further out, i wouldn't think twice about it.

awec · 10-02-2021 10:22am

PropQueries wrote: »

How popular would Stephen's Green be if there were no offices within walking distance? Stephen's Green is no different to any other town center park in any other town in Ireland IMO

I very much doubt very many people travel to the city to visit Stephen's Green and if an estate agent's selling point is "Stephen's Green is only a 20 minute train ride away", I think they need to update their selling tactic for the WFH generation IMO

Yes PropQueries, I guess this is true in the same way Stephens Green is no different to Times Square in New York. :rolleyes:

I am not entirely convinced you understand current generations. I think you are under the impression that people are living in the city reluctantly.

awec · 10-02-2021 10:23am

schmittel wrote: »

Of course, but the point is if the biggest factor driving the price in Dundrum is that you can be in Stephens green is 20 mins, WFH is likely to impact the price more than somewhere that the biggest factor is, for example, being on the coast.

Anywhere that has excellent transport links to the city centre will maintain value better than places that don't.

It is not people in Dundrum who need to worry, it's those in transport black spots.

TheSheriff · 10-02-2021 10:27am

awec wrote: »

Yes PropQueries, I guess this is true in the same way Stephens Green is no different to Times Square in New York. :rolleyes:

I am not entirely convinced you understand current generations. I think you are under the impression that people are living in the city reluctantly.

This is the underlying tone in every argument put forward for that poster.

It's bizarre.

We are all here against our will, and long for Leitrim, Sligo and Wexford.

2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

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2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1