2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

PropQueries

HopsAndJumps wrote: »

I live in DL. Pre pandemic I would get the dart into town at least three times a week. 17 minutes from my dart stop to Tara street, there is so much to do in this city. (Was so much to do )

Maybe you believe so. So for three times a week, that's 150 times a year.


What exactly did you do with your family 150 times a year in Dublin City?

hardybuck

DataDude wrote: »

Much more succinctly put - thanks! And I guess from there I'm saying that given we COVID isn't affecting the better off, there's likely to remain enough very wealthy people, and sufficiently few "lotto locations" to maybe allow those to do ok. But it's the next layer down, where people are paying big money for houses but not living in their dream location that might suffer most from the changing cost/benefit analysis of living in Dublin when WFH is a thing!

By the way, no sign of prices slowing down. Properties in D14 are still going above asking in 2021, and in some cases going sale agreed at 5-10% higher than identical properties sold for in Q4 2020.

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

Bit OT, but I've never really understood why Wexford is slightly sneered at. Wexford Town seems very nice to me. Am I missing anything?

i know wexford very well, and wexford town itself is ok as rural towns go, but even small dublin suburbs like blackrock or dalkey have more going on in terms of restaurants, eateries etc than wexford town, and the rest of the town's in the county (maybe im doing gorey a disservice havent been there in a while) are on their knees.

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

Maybe you believe so.

believe it or not, not everyone has the same utter disdain as you do for the city centre.

Greenlights16

Agree with poster above.

Dublin has most definitely NOT a whole pile of things to do, most are weather reliant which is hilarious considering the climate we live in.

What this pandemic has showed us is that once you take the pub and restaurant culture away from Dublin, most notably the pubs, it’s sucked the life out of it completely.

People are much more in love with coastal areas and countryside villages around the country now, and as the poster above has said, this is going to be for the long term because of the reality of permanent WFH.

A worker in donegal or cork will be able to drive / commute upto the big corporate Dublin office 1/2 days a week to show their face/be nice to team mates you don’t even like/collaborate and work from their beautiful home away from the kip of a Dublin office.

As much as our own government want to try and keep everything in Dublin, this juggernaut is not going to stop. All for the better. The country will develop much more as a whole

DataDude

schmittel wrote: »

Nobody is saying everybody living in the city is dying to get out!

It's that undoubtedly a greater number of people will look to buy outside Dublin than otherwise would have done so if it were not for Covid/WFH.

This will be driven mainly by affordability, not because they hate Dublin.

If 10% of FTBers who would have bought in Dublin decide to buy else where combined with 10% of renters in Dublin decide to rent elsewhere, it will have a huge effect on Dublin prices.

But obviously Dublin will always be the most popular and the most expensive place to buy property in the country.

This! Dublin will always have a premium - we are not all crazy's suggesting the time of Leitrim has come and it will soon pass Goatstown in prices. Of course some people will always want to stay in Dublin. But I'm surprised the idea that people (particularly those starting families) may start to weight up the pro's and cons of the 5 bed in Maynooth with a garden vs the 3 bed-semi D in SCD through a slightly different lens - Echoing the comment of another poster, I too have heard so so many people discuss this over the last year.

I'd be interested to know, of those saying absolutely no way WFH will make much difference at all to where people choose to live, how many already own their own home in Dublin and can't relate to the struggle of two young workers earning €45k each with two young children trying to make their way in Dublin!

The thing that makes me believe it will be impactful is, most "change" has opposing forces acting and it can be hard aggregate those to work out the net effect. On this one, I cannot see how more WFH could encourage someone who previously wasn't living in the city to now do so (although perhaps others might have theories on this). It is a fact that some will choose to move further afield. As it's a one directional shift, the only question is how big a shift and how soon!

Cyrus

Greenlights16 wrote: »

A

A worker in donegal or cork will be able to drive / commute upto the big corporate Dublin office 1/2 days a week to show their face/be nice to team mates you don’t even like/collaborate and work from their beautiful home away from the kip of a Dublin office.

i feel sorry for all of you that seem to hate your co workers so much and where you work. Life is too short, you spend more of your time at work than anywhere else, move job.

Oh and you can have a beautiful home in dublin too, you dont need to live off the side of a cliff in conemara

hometruths

Cyrus wrote: »

i know wexford very well, and wexford town itself is ok as rural towns go, but even small dublin suburbs like blackrock or dalkey have more going on in terms of restaurants, eateries etc than wexford town, and the rest of the town's in the county (maybe im doing gorey a disservice havent been there in a while) are on their knees.

For sure it doesn't compare to blackrock or Dalkey, was just surprised to see it lumped in with Leitrim etc.

Was specifically talking about Wexford town - I definitely get the sense that the rest of them are pretty bleak.

PropQueries

Cyrus wrote: »

believe it or not, not everyone has the same utter disdain as you do for the city centre.

I actually love the city

My point is that unless a person lives within walking distance of the city centre, they're not going to miss it too much if they live in e.g. Dun Laoghaire, Lucan or Swords.

The vast majority of the people living in these e.g. three towns hardly ever went into the city anyway if it wasn't for work purposes pre-covid.

If they can now WFH, they're not going to be paying a premium of c. €200k post-covid to live within a 20 minute train ride of the city as the only real incentive pre-covid for paying such a premium for a 20 minute train ride into the city was less time spent commuting each morning and evening.

Post-covid and if they're WFH, they may pay a €50k premium but there's no way the vast majority of people will pay c. €200k premium to live in the likes of Goatstown, Stillorgan etc. going forward because they may wish to get the train into the city once a month on a weekend IMO

hardybuck

DataDude wrote: »

This! Dublin will always have a premium - we are not all crazy's suggesting the time of Leitrim has come and it will soon pass Goatstown in prices. Of course some people will always want to stay in Dublin. But I'm surprised the idea that people (particularly those starting families) may start to weight up the pro's and cons of the 5 bed in Maynooth with a garden vs the 3 bed-semi D in SCD through a slightly different lens - Echoing the comment of another poster, I too have heard so so many people discuss this over the last year.

I'd be interested to know, of those saying absolutely no way WFH will make much difference at all to where people choose to live, how many already own their own home in Dublin and can't relate to the struggle of two young workers earning €45k each with two young children trying to make their way in Dublin!

The thing that makes me believe it will be impactful is, most "change" has opposing forces acting and it can be hard aggregate those to work out the net effect. On this one, I cannot see how more WFH could encourage someone who previously wasn't living in the city to now do so (although perhaps others might have theories on this). It is a fact that some will choose to move further afield. As it's a one directional shift, the only question is how big a shift and how soon!

There has always been a churn of people coming and going to Dublin from the country. Some will go up for a few years and go home, some will stay. Plenty of Dubs will also leave in search of value or for other reasons - this isn't a new phenomenon even if remote working has made it viable for more people.

At the end of the day the population continues to grow and supply continues to fall short. The fact that personal savings are continuing to grow at the same time just adds the cherry on top for price increases to continue.

HopsAndJumps

PropQueries wrote: »

Maybe you believe so. So for three times a week, that's 150 times a year.


What exactly did you do with your family 150 times a year in Dublin City?

With my wife, no kids. Food, the IFI religiously, capoeira, Thai boxing, socialising, pubs etc. The possibilities seemed endless.

If you want to sit at home and not do a whole pile, being in Ballintobber of Dublin won't make much difference to you. But it would to me.

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

For sure it doesn't compare to blackrock or Dalkey, was just surprised to see it lumped in with Leitrim etc.

Was specifically talking about Wexford town - I definitely get the sense that the rest of them are pretty bleak.

poor aul leitrim gets an awful rap, is it that bad have no experience of the place,

but yes as rural towns go Wexford town isnt bad, wexford county outside of that unless you are along the sea is a bit meh

HansKroenke

Hubertj wrote: »

Wexford is very nice. My parents spent a lot of time there after retirement as they had a holiday home in Rosslare. It improved a lot over the last 25 years. Then with the N11.... also accessible to warterford and Kilkenny.....but is there a Starbucks.

The Starbucks comment is actually a bigger point which is interesting to discuss. Now, I don't mean to say that Starbucks is the pinnacle of culture, but the small town idea, while it might seem appealing, falls down when it comes to the small business offering.

Now I think the people would need to move from Dublin before the offering is enhanced but what is unnattractive is a town with a Costcutters or something like that where you buy all your groceries; the main social outlet in the town is a fairly average pub; there is one cafe which does an extremely basic offering like scones, and an Irish breakfast; and the recreation activities do not include walking as there are unsafe roads everywhere. What will stop people moving to the smaller country towns from Dublin is the reality when it comes to local amenities. On the one hand, there is a fantastic opportunity for a vision which really seeks to bring these small towns to life and I know the government has published a document which outlines its goals with respect to long-term WFH for people. But I feel it is still a few years away from implementation mainly due to the things I highlighted above. I won't name any specific towns though!

Timing belt

wassie wrote: »

Running out of time in your 30s to get a mortgage?

You would have difficulty getting a 30 year mortgage after 35 unless the increase the pension age

wassie

jill_valentine wrote: »

Yes. How much you are offered by several institutions is calculated with consideration for how many years you have left before whatever they consider retirement age, ie how many working years you have to pay it back. That can make a significant difference.

I'm thirty five, from now on every year I get older shaves a few thousand off the max mortgage offer I can get.

Remember, 3.5 times your salary is only the cap. There's nothing stopping banks offering you less than that.

Yes - but typically as you head towards your 40s you are also moving towards peak earning capacity which means 3.5 times extra borrowing capacity for every extra euro.

Anecdotally reading on these and other forums, lenders seem more willing to give exemptions beyond 3.5x to older applicants whom have demonstrated employment history, particularly over last 12 months.

DataDude

wassie wrote: »

Yes - but typically as you head towards your 40s you are also moving towards peak earning capacity which means 3.5 times extra borrowing capacity for every extra euro.

Anecdotally reading on these and other forums, lenders seem more willing to give exemptions beyond 3.5x to older applicants whom have demonstrated employment history, particularly over last 12 months.

Surprised by this if true. Would have thought the worst time to give someone an exemption is when they're at peak earning capacity - as by definition it's not going any higher.

My experience is that exemptions are very much linked to your salary being over a nominal amount. Being young with prospects of income growth seems to be a plus rather than a negative.

wassie

Timing belt wrote: »

You would have difficulty getting a 30 year mortgage after 35 unless the increase the pension age

I don't know anyone who has a 40 year mortgage that plans on taking the full 30 years to pay it off. I know there are peeps out there, but everyone I know is paying it off faster.


Anyone in the 30/40/50s that is selling & trading up and needs a mortgage is faced with the same issue.

Timing belt

HansKroenke wrote: »

The Starbucks comment is actually a bigger point which is interesting to discuss. Now, I don't mean to say that Starbucks is the pinnacle of culture, but the small town idea, while it might seem appealing, falls down when it comes to the small business offering.

Now I think the people would need to move from Dublin before the offering is enhanced but what is unnattractive is a town with a Costcutters or something like that where you buy all your groceries; the main social outlet in the town is a fairly average pub; there is one cafe which does an extremely basic offering like scones, and an Irish breakfast; and the recreation activities do not include walking as there are unsafe roads everywhere. What will stop people moving to the smaller country towns from Dublin is the reality when it comes to local amenities. On the one hand, there is a fantastic opportunity for a vision which really seeks to bring these small towns to life and I know the government has published a document which outlines its goals with respect to long-term WFH for people. But I feel it is still a few years away from implementation mainly due to the things I highlighted above. I won't name any specific towns though!

The Green party want everyone living in Urban centres anyway so they can justify spending on trains. So any of these towns will be along the railway. Sur they even suggest putting a train from limerick to cork instead of a motorway.

jill_valentine

Let me put the shift WFH potentially represents in perspective -

I currently haven't much hope of ever buying in Dublin purely due to salary cap. However, for a mortgage of far less than I'm burning in rent every month now, I could have a perfectly decent two bed apartment in Longford town bought this instant, and paid off in less than ten years time. Five years for a monthly payment of less than what I'm paying in rent plus saving to prove my mortgage eligibility.

Now, maybe I don't want to live in Longford the rest of my life, but who cares? It's got plenty of services, shops etc, to keep me ticking over and I have now saved ten - or maybe five - years worth of capital towards somewhere I do want to live, flatmate free and on a train line to Dublin if I need it.

That's the kind of shift in thinking that's now possible.

AdamD

Greenlights16 wrote: »

Agree with poster above.

Dublin has most definitely NOT a whole pile of things to do, most are weather reliant which is hilarious considering the climate we live in.

What this pandemic has showed us is that once you take the pub and restaurant culture away from Dublin, most notably the pubs, it’s sucked the life out of it completely.

People are much more in love with coastal areas and countryside villages around the country now, and as the poster above has said, this is going to be for the long term because of the reality of permanent WFH.

A worker in donegal or cork will be able to drive / commute upto the big corporate Dublin office 1/2 days a week to show their face/be nice to team mates you don’t even like/collaborate and work from their beautiful home away from the kip of a Dublin office.

As much as our own government want to try and keep everything in Dublin, this juggernaut is not going to stop. All for the better. The country will develop much more as a whole

Really? The pandemic has essentially taken all arts, sports and entertainment away, that is significantly more than pubs. Judging Dublin based on what there is to do during a pandemic is laughable.


People with social lives based in Dublin won't flock to the countryside.

PropQueries

Ok, given that we all now know that it doesn't cost much more to build a three bed semi in e.g. Dundrum than it does in e.g. Castlebar. We also know that the main reason for the price difference between Dundrum and Castlebar is the site costs i.e. location.

So, the argument comes down to the premium that someone will now pay to be closer to the City given that they don't have to commute every day.

Is that premium €400k, €200k, €50k or €20k?

I think that's what it's going to come down to IMO

P.S. before anyone starts shouting e.g. labour costs are higher in Dublin etc., that's been 100% debunked by the proposed cost of the new build three bed semi detached units in Lusk, Co. Dublin under the affordable housing scheme which was reported yesterday. The only real difference is indeed site costs i.e. location.

fliball123

Why are people Dublin bashing. I just dont get it. Working from home or not Dublin offers the below

Higher number of schools
Higher number of hospitals
Higher number of sporting venues
Higher number of options for gigs/concerts
Higher number of options for accommodation
Higher number of colleges and more prestigious colleges
Higher number of musems/galleries
Higher number of historical locations.
Higher number of shopping locations
Higher number of civil/public sector worker jobs - a lot that cannot be done with WFH
Better roads
Airport
Seaports
DART line and other Rail links
Luas Lines
More Bus lines
Dublin's History
Unique Coast line going from Balbriggan to Bray and everywhere in between.

Dublin has more going for it than some give it credit for. Just to name a few attractions off the top of my head that other major cities in the world would love to have

Croke Park, Aviva stadium, Guinness Store house, O2 Arena, Kimanham Gaol, Phenix park/Zoo, Temple bar, Trinity College, GPO, Christ Church, St Patricks cathedral, Dublin castle, Grafton street. There is also a plethora of pubs around the place that have amazing food and lots of craic to be had on a night out. Not to mention the many parks from St Annes to Stephens Green

Name one other county in the country that can compete with this?? Dublin is a desirable city to live in no mater what the working dynamic is

Timing belt

wassie wrote: »

I don't know anyone who has a 40 year mortgage that plans on taking the full 30 years to pay it off. I know there are peeps out there, but everyone I know is paying it off faster.


Anyone in the 30/40/50s that is selling & trading up and needs a mortgage is faced with the same issue.

If you are a single person who is not on a top wage WFH may mean it is the first time that you can consider buying a property and may need the full 30 years to pay it off. Not everyone is in a relationship with both parties on good money that is required to buy in Dublin.

jill_valentine

wassie wrote: »

I don't know anyone who has a 40 year mortgage that plans on taking the full 30 years to pay it off. I know there are peeps out there, but everyone I know is paying it off faster.


Anyone in the 30/40/50s that is selling & trading up and needs a mortgage is faced with the same issue.

It doesn't matter how long you actually plan to take to pay it off. You need the 30 year offer for the buying power.

Timing belt

fliball123 wrote: »

Why are people Dublin bashing. I just dont get it. Working from home or not Dublin offers the below

Higher number of schools
Higher number of hospitals
Higher number of sporting venues
Higher number of options for gigs/concerts
Higher number of options for accommodation
Higher number of colleges and more prestigious colleges
Higher number of musems/galleries
Higher number of historical locations.
Higher number of shopping locations
Higher number of civil/public sector worker jobs - a lot that cannot be done with WFH
Better roads
Airport
Seaports
DART line and other Rail links
Luas Lines
More Bus lines
Dublin's History
Unique Coast line going from Balbriggan to Bray and everywhere in between.

Dublin has more going for it than some give it credit for. Just to name a few attractions off the top of my head that other major cities in the world would love to have

Croke Park, Aviva stadium, Guinness Store house, O2 Arena, Kimanham Gaol, Phenix park/Zoo, Temple bar, Trinity College, GPO, Christ Church, St Patricks cathedral, Dublin castle, Grafton street. There is also a plethora of pubs around the place that have amazing food and lots of craic to be had on a night out. Not to mention the many parks from St Annes to Stephens Green

Name one other county in the country that can compete with this?? Dublin is a desirable city to live in no mater what the working dynamic is

No other county has Dublin history so it would be hard to name one.

fliball123

Timing belt wrote: »

No other county has Dublin history so it would be hard to name one.

fair enough all have their own history but I doubt it would be as rich and as colorful as Dublins and the best gaelic football team ever to play the game..Sorry had to put that in

wassie

DataDude wrote: »

Surprised by this if true. Would have thought the worst time to give someone an exemption is when they're at peak earning capacity - as by definition it's not going any higher.

My experience is that exemptions are very much linked to your salary being over a nominal amount. Being young with prospects of income growth seems to be a plus rather than a negative.

It depends very much on the lenders exemption policy which vary (subject to Central Bank constraints). Salary just one factor.

jill_valentine

wassie wrote: »

Yes - but typically as you head towards your 40s you are also moving towards peak earning capacity which means 3.5 times extra borrowing capacity for every extra euro.

Anecdotally reading on these and other forums, lenders seem more willing to give exemptions beyond 3.5x to older applicants whom have demonstrated employment history, particularly over last 12 months.

Exemptions are essentially theoretical unless you're on the kind of money where they only make the difference between Property A or Property B, rather than Buy Or Not Buy.

wassie

I have no idea what that means?

jill_valentine wrote: »

It doesn't matter how long you actually plan to take to pay it off. You need the 30 year offer for the buying power.

Haven't come across these threads were this has been in issue except for people in their late 40s & 50s buying their first home, not 30s.

Sure length of mortgage does affect buying power. But I would think if you are in your 30s and reliant on length of mortgage in order to buy, I'd say its not gonna happen until you improve your salary &/or deposit.

gourcuff

fliball123 wrote: »

fair enough all have their own history but I doubt it would be as rich and as colorful as Dublins and the best gaelic football team ever to play the game..Sorry had to put that in

Are you a dub by any chance? ....