2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

hometruths

TheSheriff wrote: »

This is the underlying tone in every argument put forward for that poster.

It's bizarre.

We are all here against our will, and long for Leitrim, Sligo and Wexford.

Bit OT, but I've never really understood why Wexford is slightly sneered at. Wexford Town seems very nice to me. Am I missing anything?

Im not personally convinced by the arguments that people just prefer to stay in dublin, nor that companies and people wont react to wfh by widening the distances they might be willing to commute if it was on a less frequent basis and traffic generally was thinned out.

Both of those things are high in the minds of many people ive spoken to in the past year, and sure not all jobs will move and sure there will still be a dublin/proximity premium but the idea that it will stay at the current level as the post-covid landscape emerges in the medium term seems like people trying to convince themselves rather than a look at the priority motivators for buyers

awec

schmittel wrote: »

Bit OT, but I've never really understood why Wexford is slightly sneered at. Wexford Town seems very nice to me. Am I missing anything?

It's not being sneered at, but it's a small rural town. It is the notion that everyone living in the city is dying to get that move to the small rural town, only held back by the chains of the office commute, that is nonsensical.

What is even more bizarre is this is coming off the back of an article that suggested 90% of FTBs in the city were not considering leaving!

AdamD

Some of you seem oddly convinced that the only reason people want to live in Dublin is due to work

PropQueries

awec wrote: »

Anywhere that has excellent transport links to the city centre will maintain value better than places that don't.

It is not people in Dundrum who need to worry, it's those in transport black spots.

That's obviously true. What will change is the premium that a buyer would have paid pre-covid compared to post-covid WFH for these same transport links.

Paying a €200k premium for good transport links before may reduce to e.g. a €50k premium IMO

So, yes, people in Dundrum etc. should be very worried indeed IMO

gourcuff

think wexford is sneered at because its become full of dubs tbh, its gone a bit costa del sol,

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

Bit OT, but I've never really understood why Wexford is slightly sneered at. Wexford Town seems very nice to me. Am I missing anything?

Wexford is very nice. My parents spent a lot of time there after retirement as they had a holiday home in Rosslare. It improved a lot over the last 25 years. Then with the N11.... also accessible to warterford and Kilkenny.....but is there a Starbucks.

awec

awec wrote: »

It's not being sneered at, but it's a small rural town. It is the notion that everyone living in the city is dying to get that move to the small rural town, only held back by the chains of the office commute, that is nonsensical.

What is even more bizarre is this is coming off the back of an article that suggested 90% of FTBs in the city were not considering leaving!

Agreed that the poster in question isnt putting forward anything much of substance but i also think the case will hold true for a fair amount of people.

There will be movement out of the cities until the balance of affordability/"livability" is found again, if that second term is even a word

awec

Hubertj wrote: »

Wexford is very nice. My parents spent a lot of time there after retirement as they had a holiday home in Rosslare. It improved a lot over the last 25 years. Then with the N11.... also accessible to warterford and Kilkenny.....but is there a Starbucks.

Starbucks? That is so 2010 Hubertj...

It's all about the small independent self-roasters these days!

TheSheriff

schmittel wrote: »

Bit OT, but I've never really understood why Wexford is slightly sneered at. Wexford Town seems very nice to me. Am I missing anything?

Of all the claims on this thread, this is one of the least OT.

People need to wake up a small bit, not everyone living in Dublin is doing so through gritted teeth every day.

TheSheriff

TheSheriff wrote: »

Of all the claims on this thread, this is one of the least OT.

People need to wake up a small bit, not everyone living in Dublin is doing so through gritted teeth every day.

Not everyone

Not no-one, either

Why is everyone in the either/or camp

JimmyVik

schmittel wrote: »

No doubt the impact of WFH will be felt most by buyers who don't yet have children, because clearly uprooting settled kids will be one of the biggest factors affecting any decision.

But, having said that, I am fortunate enough to have the security of owning my house - I took that a bit for granted until I had kids. Now I realise just how important it is.

If I was renting with two small kids, the most important factor to me would be security of housing in a good area. Far more important than their schools, my job, partners job etc.

If it was a stretch for me to buy in a good area in Dublin, but I could afford a decent area further out, i wouldn't think twice about it.

Thats your end of the decision done then

Only the mrs and the two employers to go

gourcuff

AdamD wrote: »

Some of you seem oddly convinced that the only reason people want to live in Dublin is due to work

but for a lot of irish people the job was the only thing that brought them to dublin, many have no affection for the city and would much prefer to live elsewhere.

It doesn't rank high on the liveable city index, and irish people have experience now of vancouver, melbourne, sydney etc. i.e. their expectations of urban living/public realm has risen and quality of life/environment are massive factors.

I saw a fairly big exodus amongst my cohort once they could work remotely, will be interesting if employers don't force employees back full time to the office whether dublin will recover.

hardybuck

The_Conductor wrote: »

30 years ago- the only thing Dundrum had going for it- was proximity to UCD, and it was student land- a-la Rathmines or Clonskeagh.

Dundrum is somewhere you can commute from- and there is an inherent need to commute from there, given its current primary selling points are that massive shopping centre and its cinema.

Personally- I just don't get the fascination people have with living in Dundrum- I don't deny that for some people its the be-all and end-all, for me, I'm scratching my head as to just why its such a 'desirable' place to live, I just don't see it as having, well anything- other than good transport links.

Perhaps I'm being unfair- but I genuinely don't see what the area has to justify the irrational draw people have to it.

Dundrum, and its general environs, is a fantastic place to live. Not too busy while having absolutely everything in close proximity. The village proper itself is a bit lifeless (you wouldn't go for a pint there) but that's why the 5-10 minute Luas journey to Ranelagh comes in handy.

<SNIP>

JimmyVik

TheSheriff wrote: »

This is the underlying tone in every argument put forward for that poster.

It's bizarre.

We are all here against our will, and long for Leitrim, Sligo and Wexford.

TBH I wouldnt mind living down the country now that im in my 40s.

Never would have dreamt of it before though. Grew up in the country, couldnt wait to get out of it.
But since hitting 40, country life doesnt seem so bad to me anymore.


The other half, being an out and out Dub, would never have it though.
Also Id like to be close to the kids (who live in Dublin with their mother), so that I can drop over in the evening or take them out in the afternoons. So thats another one against a country move for me.

jill_valentine

AdamD wrote: »

Some of you seem oddly convinced that the only reason people want to live in Dublin is due to work

Only reason, no, but it's a major one. Again, a very big question isn't do people want to live in Dublin, it's do people want to live in Dublin if it means never owning their own home? Are Dublin's pull factors enough to trump renting for life as a downside?

An awful lot of the people now in 30s, and so running out of time to get mortgages, are past the point where Dublin nightlife is a selling point, or they moved up for work while young and are now cycling back around to thinking about the places they grew up.

The_Conductor

Deleted User wrote: »

<SNIP>

And what is your view on this speculation?

PropQueries

gourcuff wrote: »

but for a lot of irish people the job was the only thing that brought them to dublin, many have no affection for the city and would much prefer to live elsewhere.

It doesn't rank high on the liveable city index, and irish people have experience now of vancouver, melbourne, sydney etc. i.e. their expectations of urban living/public realm has risen and quality of life/environment are massive factors.

I saw a fairly big exodus amongst my cohort once they could work remotely, will be interesting if employers don't force employees back full time to the office whether dublin will recover.

I think the best way to see how popular Dublin City really is is to ask someone with a family who works and lives in e.g. Dun Laoghaire or Swords.

How many times a year do they really travel to the city centre? In most cases, I would presume very very little, if at all.

JimmyVik

PropQueries wrote: »

I think the best way to see how popular Dublin City really is is to ask someone with a family who works and lives in e.g. Dun Laoghaire.

How many times a year do they really travel to the city centre? In most cases, I would presume very very little, if at all.

Might be better off asking them if they would actually prefer living in a small country town than living in Dun Laoghaire.

hometruths

awec wrote: »

It's not being sneered at, but it's a small rural town. It is the notion that everyone living in the city is dying to get that move to the small rural town, only held back by the chains of the office commute, that is nonsensical.

What is even more bizarre is this is coming off the back of an article that suggested 90% of FTBs in the city were not considering leaving!

Nobody is saying everybody living in the city is dying to get out!

It's that undoubtedly a greater number of people will look to buy outside Dublin than otherwise would have done so if it were not for Covid/WFH.

This will be driven mainly by affordability, not because they hate Dublin.

If 10% of FTBers who would have bought in Dublin decide to buy else where combined with 10% of renters in Dublin decide to rent elsewhere, it will have a huge effect on Dublin prices.

But obviously Dublin will always be the most popular and the most expensive place to buy property in the country.

PropQueries

JimmyVik wrote: »

Might be better off asking them if they would actually prefer living in a small country town than living in Dun Laoghaire.

I'd throw people living in Lucan and all similar towns in Co. Dublin in as well. Dublin City offers very very little entertainment or shopping wise anymore for the vast vast majority of working people.

wassie

jill_valentine wrote: »

An awful lot of the people now in 30s, and so running out of time to get mortgages, are past the point where Dublin nightlife is a selling point.

Running out of time in your 30s to get a mortgage?

fliball123

Cyrus wrote: »

the generation that doesnt exist yet? you might be jumping the gun

I tend to agree I think it will be the next generation as in the school goers now who are now proficient at doing school work from and watching mam and dad work from home who will bring about the WFH to being the new norm. There are still a high number of jobs that physically need someone there to do the work. I cant see WFH having much impact on the Irish property market for at least another 5 years.

hometruths

JimmyVik wrote: »

Thats your end of the decision done then

Only the mrs and the two employers to go

Unsurprisingly married to someone who shares the same view.

Even if I was not self employed, I'd get a different job, if employer said no. That would have been a far riskier/maybe impossible decision pre WFH.

JimmyVik

PropQueries wrote: »

I'd throw people living in Lucan and all similar towns in Co. Dublin in as well. Dublin City offers very very little entertainment or shopping wise anymore for the vast vast majority of working people.

You are grasping here
Dublin does not offer very little to those people.
It offers far more than any rural town does.
Remember, you have to think about what Dublin has to offer when its up and running, not on its knees in a pandemic.

HopsAndJumps

PropQueries wrote: »

I think the best way to see how popular Dublin City really is is to ask someone with a family who works and lives in e.g. Dun Laoghaire or Swords.

How many times a year do they really travel to the city centre? In most cases, I would presume very very little, if at all.

I live in DL. Pre pandemic I would get the dart into town at least three times a week. 17 minutes from my dart stop to Tara street, there is so much to do in this city. (Was so much to do )

gourcuff

London's population fell by c.700k its claimed, obviously dublins not in the same league as London but its instructive of covid impact..


https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/covid-19-london-s-population-fell-by-700-000-amid-exodus-of-foreign-born-residents-from-uk-1.4458762

jill_valentine

wassie wrote: »

Running out of time in your 30s to get a mortgage?

Yes. How much you are offered by several institutions is calculated with consideration for how many years you have left before whatever they consider retirement age, ie how many working years you have to pay it back. That can make a significant difference.

I'm thirty five, from now on every year I get older shaves a few thousand off the max mortgage offer I can get.

Remember, 3.5 times your salary is only the cap. There's nothing stopping banks offering you less than that.

DataDude

Cyrus wrote: »

I think what you are saying is this, if you won the lotto and had 10m to spend on a house in the morning in dublin where would it be, for most people it will be between blackrock and dalkey if they want to be on the coast, and D4 or D6 if they prefer proximity to the city. (there are some that prefer the northside aswell, so you can include howth and sutton)

Its unlikely to be dundrum, stillorgan, goatstown etc.

So i think thats what you mean by a+ and a- areas.

Maybe im wrong?

Much more succinctly put - thanks! And I guess from there I'm saying that given we COVID isn't affecting the better off, there's likely to remain enough very wealthy people, and sufficiently few "lotto locations" to maybe allow those to do ok. But it's the next layer down, where people are paying big money for houses but not living in their dream location that might suffer most from the changing cost/benefit analysis of living in Dublin when WFH is a thing!