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Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

mcriot29 · 2012-06-10 14:17:01

I know its summer but any one have any views on the signs for 2012 winter , i think a pos Nao so a mild standerd winter for ireland Link belOw about winter http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?#38;showtopic=26562&st=300 ***MOD WARNING*** Keep it on topic folks , don't attack the person posting, questioning the post is…

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#3722 05-03-2013 6:24pm
Youneckfreak

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Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

Yeah you should be lucky, no snow.

Thanks

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#3723 05-03-2013 6:26pm
SnowDancer

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Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

Yeah you should be lucky, no snow.

Or unlucky depending on your perspective!
I miss the ramping thread already :-D

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#3724 05-03-2013 6:29pm
Speak Now

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SnowDancer wrote: »

Or unlucky depending on your perspective!
I miss the ramping thread already :-D

Well i was answering a guy who said a few day ago "Hopefully no more snow till next winter!

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#3725 05-03-2013 6:36pm
Iancar29

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GFS Op run not so dramatic as earlier but still no doubt a cold snap for most of us.

Expect the Ensembles to still have a number of Sub -10 850s for us.

It'll be interesting to see this unfold out as the main models in similar agreement to Day 6 .

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#3726 05-03-2013 6:47pm
dacogawa

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The ECM doesn't seem to be on the same wavelength as the others at 144, a lot slower. Suppose it might change in 15 mins, until then 'Go home ECM, you're drunk!'

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013030500/ECM0-144.GIF?05-12

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#3727 05-03-2013 6:53pm
Wicklow Weather

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The ECM also giving the cold blast a 5 day run where as the GFS 3 days at best.
Falling from one side of the fence to the other....!:eek:

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#3728 05-03-2013 6:59pm
Youneckfreak

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Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

Well i was answering a guy who said a few day ago "Hopefully no more snow till next winter!

Thanks jerry. Thanks very much really appreciate it

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#3729 05-03-2013 7:52pm
ninebeanrows

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Magical ECM, much different to the GFS outcome but not too much different to the UKM, just big differences in pressure levels over Greenland and the trough dropping south, but the overall synoptic is more similar.

Lets hope the consistent ECM is correct because we have a severe cold shot arriving as early as late Sunday.

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#3730 05-03-2013 7:55pm
ninebeanrows

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If the ECM occurred it would be a dramatic late winter cold spell with 850hPa uppers from -8c to -10c through a 96hr period at least with snow in many places.

Too good to be true?? Probably!

WOW the ECM run is one for the USB memory stick.

Incredible, and probably the best run of the winter season!

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#3731 05-03-2013 7:56pm
ZX7R

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what happened to you been a mod weathercheck hope you are not going to jump ship and leave us like so many others??

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#3732 05-03-2013 8:27pm
cherryghost

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Getting close to the reliable timeframe. Thursday evening for me is when I start to get excited. For now, cautious optimism.

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#3733 05-03-2013 9:43pm
ninebeanrows

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The ECM Ensemble mean is one of the most impressive of the season and has much of Ireland in means of 850hPa between -6c and -8c from 144hrs right through to 240hrs.

Very very impressive

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#3734 05-03-2013 9:47pm
Rebelbrowser

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Weathercheck wrote: »

The ECM Ensemble mean is one of the most impressive of the season and has much of Ireland in means of 850hPa between -6c and -8c from 144hrs right through to 240hrs.

Very very impressive

Thanks for the half time update! back for an 18z gfs update at 10 (unless there is et and penalties..).

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#3735 05-03-2013 11:06pm
aurora 527

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Im no expert but it looks like the cold is progressing faster on this gfs run so far to 114hrs

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#3736 05-03-2013 11:08pm
ninebeanrows

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aurora 527 wrote: »

Im no expert but it looks like the cold is progressing faster on this gfs run so far to 114hrs

Still big differences from how this evolves from all the big 3, so i would not take the 18z GFS outcome too seriously.

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#3737 05-03-2013 11:17pm
derekon

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Hi WC,

Great model runs today, no doubt about that.

However there has to be a serious health warning attached to them given the hell of a winter we have had in terms of model predictions. If the severe cold is still showing within +48 or +72 hours, its only then that I will be buying it. Just a case of being fooled too much this winter by the models! Still interesting model watching for the days ahead.............

D

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#3738 05-03-2013 11:34pm
delw

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Yes it's only one run but as was said earlier today by Jerry Seinfeld about the sinking high,well it's sinking,-8's don't even make it to the west on the 18z

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#3739 06-03-2013 12:39am
Mr Bumble

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Nowhere else to put this so excuse the topic break....Weathercheck...could you please free up some space for a PM?
Tried to send one to you but you're full up.

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#3740 06-03-2013 12:54am
ninebeanrows

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Mr Bumble wrote: »

Nowhere else to put this so excuse the topic break....Weathercheck...could you please free up some space for a PM?
Tried to send one to you but you're full up.

No problem, my message space must of got reduced when i left the mod position! Cheers

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#3741 06-03-2013 1:17am
ninebeanrows

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believe in perturb 16! now that would be mega cold.

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#3742 06-03-2013 1:44am
Strangegravy

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Weathercheck wrote: »

believe in perturb 16! now that would be mega cold.

Minus 14 uppers..

At plus 150hrs..

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#3743 06-03-2013 1:53am
Gonzo

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Weathercheck wrote: »

believe in perturb 16! now that would be mega cold.

looks similar to this one we had in 1991,http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hd6DuebHliY

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#3744 06-03-2013 2:27am
icesnowfrost

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Rebelbrowser wrote: »

icesnowfrost, I know this isn't the question you are asking but you don't need to be able to read charts to follow the models. I would barely know a high pressure from a low pressure but I can read colour coded temp charts with the best of them! Just go to www.meteociel.fr/modeles, click on either ecmwf or gefs, and then click on the "temp. 850hpa" icon. This tells you the the temp at (approx) 1,500 metres up. If its -8 or lower then sneachta is on the cards is there is precipitation around. Genuinely, it sounds complicated but follow these instructions once and you'll do easily next time (and you'll be hooked).

Cheers I understand -8 upper temps is good for snow and the blue is cold and red is warm I no them kind of basics it's reading charts I'm no good at.

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#3745 06-03-2013 7:09am
dopolahpec

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This morning's GFS 0z has a strong north east gradient dragging -12 uppers across Ireland by Monday morning. Now if that were to come off we would certainly see significant snow and extremely low temperatures. Thw high sinks quite fast but this is followed by height rises to Greenland and cold reloads in FI.

The run shows what looks to me as an historic late spring cold push into western Europe.

This starting to look veeeery interesting

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#3746 06-03-2013 7:11am
dopolahpec

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This morning's GFS 0z has a strong north east gradient dragging -12 uppers across Ireland by Monday morning. Now if that were to come off we would certainly see significant snow and extremely low temperatures. Thw high sinks quite fast but this is followed by height rises to Greenland and cold reloads in FI.

The run shows what looks to me as an historic late winter early spring cold push into western Europe.

This starting to look veeeery interesting

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#3747 06-03-2013 8:12am
dopolahpec

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Lads never have we needed a ramping thread more

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#3748 06-03-2013 8:15am
Redsunset

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Joe B and Ryan maue say it's coming too in their tweets.

I was not fooling around about what this March was going to be like. Europe tanking too!

This is false spring Europe as Major March cold comes back for mid month!

There is a possible snowfest on the table here however until we get the cold over us all bets are off. Exciting wait and see.

I don't think people will be disappointed if it's just cold but the Irish sea is the snow machine for East. I think we'll get something out of this.

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#3749 06-03-2013 8:31am
Redsunset

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NEW THREAD OPEN
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056896284
Simply to discuss the cold evolution and not a guarantee of anything.

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