Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

ninebeanrows

Weathering

Well that's me done for this year folks. It's been a long winding road full of crap
Coming in to Autumn I'll get bit again

No doubt it'll be the same story next year.

Moral of the story book a ski holiday next winter

Daniel2590

Weathering wrote: »

Well that's me done for this year folks. It's been a long winding road full of crap
Coming in to Autumn I'll get bit again

No doubt it'll be the same story next year.

Moral of the story book a ski holiday next winter

So even though you believed every good run you entirely dismiss this possible cold spell on the basis that one run is poor :pac:

dexter647

Daniel2590 wrote: »

So even though you believed every good run you entirely dismiss this possible cold spell on the basis that one run is poor :pac:

It's not just one run..Its the last couple of runs on all the major models have being showing the high drifting further south which is not good for a major cold spell...Looking more like cool and dry now

Weathering

Daniel2590 wrote: »

So even though you believed every good run you entirely dismiss this possible cold spell on the basis that one run is poor :pac:

Who said I believed every cold run...You only. The trend was positive for a while and now we are in to a more reliable time frame and it has gone t1ts up

ninebeanrows

Still going to get very cold later in the week, however now larger % of being mostly dry but still 30% cluster of EC EPS going for snow shower risk for east coast.

derekon

I think the major lesson learned this winter is that there can be vast differences between the east of England and the island of Ireland. Major downgrades this morning on the ECMWF for Ireland with no real hope of snow. Eastern England on the other hand can expect -8 to -12 upper temps from Thursday through to Sunday (providing models do not change). This will dump around 15-30cm of snow on that part of the world as per MT's UK forecast this morning. He puts the chances of a severe cold spell later this week at somewhere between 60%-80% for the east of the UK. I am sure they are having o*gasms over on Netweather. Meanwhile in Ireland, its been a let down again in whats probably been the most disappointing winter ever in terms of potential not reached. Disappointing does not come close to summing it up. OK Rant over! Thoughts now really have to turn to Spring as the window for now is now getting very close to being closed in our faces

D

Harps

Weathercheck wrote: »

Still going to get very cold later in the week, however now larger % of being mostly dry but still 30% cluster of EC EPS going for snow shower risk for east coast.

It was forecast to be dry all along..? Maybe a few light flurries along the coast but never anything more than that

Its still looking cold, dry and settled, the only change from a few days ago is the depth of cold and I think the country could do without a severe cold spell so can't say I'm too bothered about that

Latest GFS shows potential for a totally dry second half to the month for most of us with some good sunshine and plenty of clear, crisp and frosty mornings

No rain right out to 192h and likely beyond so finally a chance for the ground to dry out



Could all change again obviously but I'd gladly take the current outlook even though its nothing too exciting

pad199207

Believe me, id rather have those calm sunny conditions but with southerly winds of snow isn't going to be on offer!

Oneiric 3

derekon wrote: »

Meanwhile in Ireland, its been a let down again in whats probably been the most disappointing winter ever in terms of potential not reached. Disappointing does not come close to summing it up. OK Rant over!
D

I can understand this totally but I do think that a lot of the disappointment being experienced on here was inevitable. It is true that the models did throw up some big synoptics at times, but even when they did, they never really showed that much for Ireland. Always a good idea to look at and consider the bigger picture for sure but equally as important is to to keep the smaller picture in mind. Big synoptics don't necessarily equate to big weather - at least in this part of the world.

I think if any lesson is too be learned from this winter it is that reading and taking on board UK focused posts on UK weather forums and trying to apply them to Ireland will always prove futile. Equally, listening to UK based long/short range weather forecasts, and which were very often quoted on here, I think should be avoided as much of the anticipation for something big came from these rather than from any home grown forecasts.

ninebeanrows

Harps wrote: »

It was forecast to be dry all along..? Maybe a few light flurries along the coast but never anything more than that

Its still looking cold, dry and settled, the only change from a few days ago is the depth of cold and I think the country could do without a severe cold spell so can't say I'm too bothered about that

Latest GFS shows potential for a totally dry second half to the month for most of us with some good sunshine and plenty of clear, crisp and frosty mornings

No rain right out to 192h and likely beyond so finally a chance for the ground to dry out



Could all change again obviously but I'd gladly take the current outlook even though its nothing too exciting

Incorrect, consistently for around 2 days there was forecast for snow showers to affect the east coast on Thursday/Friday.

whitebriar

countryfile just now has essentially confirmed that there will be no weather this week.
Mostly sunny and cold with a much needed drying Ese wind.
Frost away from the East and South coast at night.

What happens next,depends on where the hp goes after next weekend.
Up untill then,no significant weather,just a settled cold breezy theme.
Best time to check what is more probable to happen next week would be next weekends output from the nwp's.

Before that,you're going to get the usual mix of low probability guesses.

Pangea

Harps wrote: »

I think the country could do without a severe cold spell so can't say I'm too bothered about that

You dont seem bothered about anything anymore Harps Bring back the old Harps! Sounds like you need a good dumping of snow to cheer you up

derekon

derekon wrote: »

I think the major lesson learned this winter is that there can be vast differences between the east of England and the island of Ireland. Major downgrades this morning on the ECMWF for Ireland with no real hope of snow. Eastern England on the other hand can expect -8 to -12 upper temps from Thursday through to Sunday (providing models do not change). This will dump around 15-30cm of snow on that part of the world as per MT's UK forecast this morning. He puts the chances of a severe cold spell later this week at somewhere between 60%-80% for the east of the UK. I am sure they are having o*gasms over on Netweather. Meanwhile in Ireland, its been a let down again in whats probably been the most disappointing winter ever in terms of potential not reached. Disappointing does not come close to summing it up. OK Rant over! Thoughts now really have to turn to Spring as the window for now is now getting very close to being closed in our faces

D

Just to edit my original post - having watched the BBC's Country File weather for the week ahead for the UK, it would not appear that any major snow will fall on the east of Britain either. Just cold and dry with the presenter stating that "no significant accumulations are expected". So it now seems that both islands this week will not get much snow. I anticipate much chucking of toys out of the pram over on the NW forum.

D

cherryghost

Well I did say 2 days ago that even if the cold air mass did manage to drive over to us, there was no precip in it anyway. Chance of showers was and always has been extremely minimal.

ZX7R

If we get a week or two of dry sunny cold weather ,i be happy with that,dry weather seems to be a rarity lately,hopefully get out on the motor bike for a couple of spins:)

Gonzo

as a few have posted above, this winter has taken the biscuit in terms of overall dissapointment. Last winter was dire but at least it was dire almost everywhere except for 1 week in the UK and Europe.

This winter has seen a very good winter in many parts of central and east UK and parts of mainland Europe with frequent outbreaks of snow since Christmas. We on the other hand have had next to nothing and out on our own along with Portugal, Southern Spain and Italy as a snowless winter kingdom. The Ireland Vs mainland UK snowfall has been more lob-sided this year than any other winter I can remember and thats the bit thats been hardest to take.

Given our distance north and amount of chances we've had it's just all the more dissapointing that nothing made it past Wales but we can thank the Atlantic for that.

I never got my hopes up for the upcoming cold spell as it's still almost a week away, we could still get snow from it, but the main thing im looking forward to now is a week of dry weather and hopefully my garden will become less of a swamp. Anything is better than week in week out of cold wet rain and the feeling of never ending dampness.

derekon

@Oneiric3 - very good comments. Disappointment was always to be expected I suppose given our position on the edge of the European continent. In future, if snow is not within the +48 hours reliable time frame, I will not be buying it. Just wasted too much time with models over the past three months (all my own fault of course). The point on UK forums is also valid. Total waste of time too. Both lessons will be remembered for winter 2013/2014.

@Gonzo - good comments too. Ireland joins the likes of Spain and Portugal as a snow less kingdom. However the real killer here is that both of those countries are assured of good summers. We on the other hand are not.

Lets be honest, there is one thing and one thing only that is giving us cool wet summers and mild damp winters. Its the Azores High. Plain and Simple. And I don't see that changing anytime soon. :mad:

D

patneve2

I know it's just one run but the GFS 12z is looking better, high slightly further north. Will still be a dry easterly though

ninebeanrows

patneve2 wrote: »

I know it's just one run but the GFS 12z is looking better, high slightly further north. Will still be a dry easterly though

Yea is still really going to be bitter later this week. Really cold airmass.

But that said looking dry but a few changes here and there and the snow risk will come.

At least the dewpoints won't be a problem, so if anything does crop up it should be SNOW

ninebeanrows

UKM not a disaster, a 100-150mile shift north of the HP please.

JanuarySnowstor

Baby steps in the right direction this evening
It wouldn't take much to turn things very much in our favour.
Of course the opposite is also true

It's Winter's last hoorah really

JanuarySnowstor

Poor end to the UKMO with it being dry and cold
At least we have short term upgrades, if these continue the longer term will improve dramatically

howlinwolf

id take the model outlook as it stands now....cold sunny ( dry ) days and frosty crisp nights, sounds lovely after the non stop rain, wouldnt mind the snow if thats what we were gonna get but so many times its turned out as cold rain,snizzle,messy sleet,hail....everything but snow.

Gonzo

howlinwolf wrote: »

id take the model outlook as it stands now....cold sunny ( dry ) days and frosty crisp nights, sounds lovely after the non stop rain, wouldnt mind the snow if thats what we were gonna get but so many times its turned out as cold rain,snizzle,messy sleet,hail....everything but snow.

totally agree we've all seen enough rain, sleet and messy wet snow mixed in with rain/hail and snizzle to last a lifetime... Im happy with either a week or 2 of cold, dry, sunny weather with night time frosts or a week similar to that mixed with snow showers. If its not snow then the precipitation can get lost.

Just been outside for a one hour walk in pleasant sunshine, first time Ive been able to go out for a walk without worrying about the rain in well over 6 months.

Rock Lesnar

Gonzo wrote: »

totally agree we've all seen enough rain, sleet and messy wet snow mixed in with rain/hail and snizzle to last a lifetime... Im happy with either a week or 2 of cold, dry, sunny weather with night time frosts

Yeah same here, I've spent quite a bit of the winter looking at water either flooding the Garden and around the House, this weather outlook for the week is absolutely brilliant considering the winter ive had.

ninebeanrows

ECM out, 100 mile kick north and you have real chance of streamers for east coast.

Still at T120, so this is still Live threat.

John.Icy

Nice NOGAPS/NAVGEM runs tonight! High a nice bit further North with some snow about.

Now even though it's not a major model, it's still possible the big models shift the high back North. Granted its unlikely considering our luck, but you never know with our weather.

Fingers crossed for the morning runs for something better for snow fans.

Rebelbrowser

Rather UK centric but MT has just posted this on another site......

"This looks capable of producing a more severe depth of cold than in much of the discussion so far, drawing on -7 to -10 C temps that are likely to develop over the near continent after cold advection and widespread snow streamers from the Baltic across northern Germany, Holland, and mesoscale snowfall further south into northeast France. With that deep cold coming into contact with the North Sea at 6-8 C you could reasonably expect localized 20-30 cm snowfalls in southeast England and with the right wind direction some 5-15 cm amounts in the south coast regions. Also with that snow on the ground by Friday-Saturday there will be more feedback to temperatures and that could produce real as opposed to nearly realized "ice days" in parts of south-central England. Eventually there could be readings as low as -10 C with this spell over fresh snow cover where skies clear later. Persistence of near -10 C uppers in southern England for 3-4 days is fairly rare at any stage of winter and on the historical charts you only see the -10 C contour over the UK on occasions that produce record cold temperatures (which are still in the vicinity of days near -2 and nights near -8 at this later stage of winter).

At the same time, it will stay rather mild in northern Scotland and they could actually see some above normal temperatures in sunshine too, at times when the south is in the deep freeze.

Further north the chances for heavy snow seem diminished but would expect a patchy covering by Saturday night in most regions south of a line from south Yorks to central Wales. One or two bands of moderate snow could develop north of London in response to troughing that rotates around the Med low. Anyway, one NW member who is bound to see heavy snow is probably Nick Sussex, the weather looks positively glacial for the south of France from Thursday to about Monday or so. One theme that is almost absent from model runs (except maybe the lightly regarded WMC Moscow) is a significant undercutting low to keep heights up and push the boundaries north. The longer this block stays around, the greater the chances for that to occur sooner or later but I would think more likely in the period 3-8 March when the second phase of this cold spell comes into perhaps a battleground scenario against a returning Atlantic.

I am liking the gradual upgrade trend on this cold spell and feel that it will be major not "in the background" and also may reload from the north before fading out of the picture around 10 March, in fact it may be swept away at that point, possibly after a breakdown snowfall event, by a return to southwesterly flow as I expect the bulk of the cold blocking pattern to reposition over northern Canada and west Greenland by then. "

Weathering

20-30cm in the south east of england seems far fetched