Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

Rebelbrowser

Courtesy Flush wrote: »

People have been posting these FI maps all winter and they never turn into anything. Whats the point of these maps other than to tease ?

You could say the same of porn and it comprises 70% of the internet!

dacogawa

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

You could say the same of porn and it comprises 70% of the internet!

And here's picture number six Cute, seductive & the hail Mary of Winter 2013...

arctictree

I'm getting the impression from the models that HP will be close to us from this weekend. Hopefully we will see an end to this cold damp muck...

Elmer Blooker

pressure falling in the Azores area? - a very good sign imo.



........ and the 06z GFS showing the same in FI

Rebelbrowser

The 0z ecm at t240 has attacks coming from the east and north....http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=0&map=0&type=0&archive=0

tomcosgrave

All this is for 10 days out - the models so far this winter have never held up that long in advance, so I'm not getting my hopes up!

Rebelbrowser

tomcosgrave wrote: »

All this is for 10 days out - the models so far this winter have never held up that long in advance, so I'm not getting my hopes up!

The models never lie.

tomcosgrave

No, they don't lie. They just frequently don't pan out ;-)

odyboody

Some people need to chill. This is a thread for model watching and we all know the mega charts are nearly always in FI, (doesn't matter if its cold or warm you are looking for). The fun is trying to identify which of the fantasy runs are lightly to come off. If one outcome becomes more lightly than the others and is supported by pro forecasters it is only at that stage it becomes a weather forecast.

Weather forecasting and model watching are two completely different sports

tomcosgrave

Fair enough. It's just my hope has been smashed this year. Really thought we were on for cold at some point before now.

John.Icy

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

pressure falling in the Azores area? - a very good sign imo.

Yep, flattening of the Azores will easily increase the chance of some cold reaching our shore.

Hopefully this can be the one that delivers.

Musicman2000

John.Icy wrote: »

Yep, flattening of the Azores will easily increase the chance of some cold reaching our shore.

Hopefully this can be the one that delivers.

Would tie in with this morning 00z ECM run. Think the ECM might be a tad early bringing heights to our NW.

ninebeanrows

Very interesting ECM again.

However the evolution is quite different to this morning but overall things towards the end of Feb remain positive for the likelihood of cold and snow.

The message as per the rest of winter is patience. Hopefully we will be rewarded.



My crude brush stroke opinion.

Feb 21-25, High Pressure dominating. Easterly of sorts, probably very settled and progressively cold.

Feb 25-March 3rd: Increasing Geopotential Height anomaly over Greenland/ PV shift to Scandy/ Russian Arctic. Likely UK/IRE in Northerly/ Northeasterly w/ increased snow risk.

kingshankly

odyboody wrote: »

Some people need to chill. This is a thread for model watching and we all know the mega charts are nearly always in FI, (doesn't matter if its cold or warm you are looking for). The fun is trying to identify which of the fantasy runs are lightly to come off. If one outcome becomes more lightly than the others and is supported by pro forecasters it is only at that stage it becomes a weather forecast.

Weather forecasting and model watching are two completely different sports

But model watching is very one sided most people only looking out for snow or poor weather seldom you see people post a chart indicating a nice mild spell

Musicman2000

kingshankly wrote: »

But model watching is very one sided most people only looking out for snow or poor weather seldom you see people post a chart indicating a nice mild spell

Everyone to their own. But the majority of the time this country is stuck under a blanket of Mild,Dull and boring weather. Its nice to get something extreme once in a while and it is a Weather Enthusiastic's forum so normally the more extreme the better.

ninebeanrows

It did look for a while we might get a sunny and mild day this weekend but this is becoming less likely. Mild yes but more than likely overcast with drizzle or rain.

The long term trend to build the PV to our northeast continues in the longer term.

All the cards at the minute point to a very cold start to March.

Before that a chance at an easterly before heights move towards Greenland as we near the end of Feb.

derekon

Weathercheck wrote: »

It did look for a while we might get a sunny and mild day this weekend but this is becoming less likely. Mild yes but more than likely overcast with drizzle or rain.

The long term trend to build the PV to our northeast continues in the longer term.

All the cards at the minute point to a very cold start to March.

Before that a chance at an easterly before heights move towards Greenland as we near the end of Feb.

Always two weeks in the future though, it will be July before we see any decent cold weather at this stage

D

Snowc

These cold charts remind me of the carrot on the string and the horse:D

dacogawa

Big change in the GFS so far...

ninebeanrows

Very significant ECM 144hrs.

A very good chart at the edge of what is deemed semi reliable.

Darwin

The elusive Scandi high making an appearance...so that chart shows geopotential heights - how do I interpret the likelihood of precipitation? Also, don't we need a 528 dam line (amongst other things) for snow? The circle of warm air over the Norwegian sea looks very odd!

arctictree

06z GFS is a great run. Not sure exactly what we'll get but it is different for sure.

Villain

GFS is moving closer to ECM, come on winter one last hurrah

JanuarySnowstor

Charts have potential tonight.
Nothing extreme but certainly one to watch

I have to laugh at N-W, it's becoming more and more like snow watch
Even Ian Brown seems to be drugged now to say .......yes it'll be cold.........yes it'll be cold.....lol. I suppose it was either that for the poor guy or a ban!

DOCARCH

12z ECM looks messy! :rolleyes: Very strange at the end of the run, at 240 hours, with -8c uppers just over Ireland? Warmer to the east, west, south and north - don't think I have seen a chart quite like that before.

derekon

DOCARCH wrote: »

12z ECM looks messy! :rolleyes: Very strange at the end of the run, at 240 hours, with -8c uppers just over Ireland? Warmer to the east, west, south and north - don't think I have seen a chart quite like that before.

I noticed that myself - maybe for once Ireland will be on the right side of cold by actually being in the cold :cool:

D

ZX7R

DOCARCH wrote: »

12z ECM looks messy! :rolleyes: Very strange at the end of the run, at 240 hours, with -8c uppers just over Ireland? Warmer to the east, west, south and north - don't think I have seen a chart quite like that before.

Sure does seem's to have lost the plot from 120h

delw

The pub run having a good one tonight,-8 uppers over Ireland,-10's on the east @150hrs

Edit : But all FI

JanuarySnowstor

Yes, excellent 18z from the gfs
Would give a spell of snow moving East to West Thursday night into Friday!!

delw

LOL -10's over most of the country @156
If you hear a big bang it's not an asteroid hitting the earth,it will probably be NW exploding