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Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

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    #3692
    Elmer Blooker
    Registered Users Posts: 6,046 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker


    nice easterly developing here with blocking to the N and NE. Is +144 FI? borderline?
    I don't think there will be anything mild about next week, a southeast wind and cloudy skies will make it feel anything but mild even though temps will be around average perhaps a little below.

    Recm1441.gif


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    #3693
    derekon
    Registered Users Posts: 836 ✭✭✭derekon


    Strong signals this morning on both the ECM and the GFS models of a potential very cold spell next week - just outside the reliable time frame however MT did mention the possibility of the "s" word in his forecast if all things fall in place.

    However major health warning attached - is this the final kick in the teeth from winter 2012/2013 or might winter have a snowy bite in its tail? :rolleyes:

    D


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    #3694
    MrDerp
    Registered Users Posts: 990 ✭✭✭MrDerp


    derekon wrote: »
    might winter have a snowy bite in its tail? :rolleyes:

    Might for me, I'm going to be in Denmark next week :)


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    #3695
    Duiske
    Registered Users Posts: 3,087 ✭✭✭Duiske


    derekon wrote: »
    Strong signals this morning on both the ECM and the GFS models of a potential very cold spell next week - just outside the reliable time frame however MT did mention the possibility of the "s" word in his forecast if all things fall in place.

    However major health warning attached - is this the final kick in the teeth from winter 2012/2013 or might winter have a snowy bite in its tail? :rolleyes:

    D

    What I find slightly odd is the consistency being shown in the latter end of the runs, particularly GFS, for a change to something much colder from the N/E. You would generally expect wide variations from run to run at that range. Anyway, just an oddity for the moment, but worth keeping an eye on charts for 11th March onwards to see how things play out.


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    #3696
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Looks very interesting next week, strong consensus for a serious cool down again.

    GFS Ensembles mean shows a strong signal. March could turn out to be a seriously cold month (to average).

    Before then it looks like becoming milder but not much above average if at all, looks like we could see some spells of rain heavy at times.

    GFS Ensembles mean at 180hrs.

    gens-21-1-168.png?12


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    #3697
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Very good ECM Ensembles means, if it is cold weather you want that is!

    But not only would it be cold there would be good convection firing up in an unstable polar flow. Some exciting weather for many would be offered.

    Reem1921.gif

    Reem2401.gif


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    #3698
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users Posts: 3,133 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    Weathercheck wrote: »
    Very good ECM Ensembles means, if it is cold weather you want that is!

    But not only would it be cold there would be good convection firing up in an unstable polar flow. Some exciting weather for many would be offered.

    Reem1921.gif

    Reem2401.gif

    18z Gfs speeds things up even further. Cold by Monday.....


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    #3699
    dexter647
    Registered Users Posts: 1,218 ✭✭✭dexter647


    Wow impressive 18z gfs indeed:D...This winter has been one hell of a roller coaster with many casualties but for all who have stuck with it I really feel we are in for a surprise and boy do we deserve it:)


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    #3700
    tomcosgrave
    Registered Users Posts: 320 ✭✭tomcosgrave


    At this stage I'm not buying into the idea of serious snow in my neck of the woods - a few sprinkles at best for Dublin. The models promise greatness as usual this past few months, but I expect that as before, there will be modifications.

    Guess I've been burned too many times! :-)


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    #3701
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users Posts: 3,133 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    V quiet here esp given the ECM and GFS are v. good this morning. 2 or 3 v cold days upcoming, may be as soon as Sunday on GFS. -8s presently forecast for over the entire country. Only concern is it isn't really model consensus given the timing differences in the forecasts.

    See by way of examples....

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=216&mode=0&map=0&archive=0

    and

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=144&mode=1


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    #3702
    Red Pepper
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,567 ✭✭✭Red Pepper


    I want to ramp!!!


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    #3703
    Strangegravy
    Registered Users Posts: 356 ✭✭Strangegravy


    Not buying the deep cold yet, models around 96h - 120h are FI at the moment, and changes around that time frame are the ones that bring in the extreme cold. Something to keep an eye on, just don't get suckered in. (Yet!) ;)


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    #3704
    delw
    Registered Users Posts: 2,655 ✭✭✭delw


    Rebelbrowser wrote: »
    V quiet here esp given the ECM and GFS are v. good this morning. 2 or 3 v cold days upcoming, may be as soon as Sunday on GFS. -8s presently forecast for over the entire country. Only concern is it isn't really model consensus given the timing differences in the forecasts.

    See by way of examples....

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=216&mode=0&map=0&archive=0

    and

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=144&mode=1
    That is an impressive GSF chart even though it probably won't come off


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    #3705
    dopolahpec
    Closed Accounts Posts: 510 ✭✭✭dopolahpec


    Wow some serious stuff being spewed out in the models. Very interesting solutions for the start of next week with -10s and even -12 uppers for ireland in a powerful easterly. Let's hope the '60% probability' quoted in the forecast section here isn't the kiss of death ;)

    Very interesting stuff to follow at the moment. Could set up a good snowfall. Who cares how long it lasts. Wouldn't it be lovely to have thick snow falling in a stiff north easterly under black turbulent skies?


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    #3706
    Redsunset
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    Oh yes it's looking very likely we're in for a belt of the freezer. Perhaps a glancing blow but I think there's alot of brutal cold making a beeline for these parts. Interesting watch for now.


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    #3707
    leahyl
    Registered Users Posts: 14,246 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    Redsunset wrote: »
    Oh yes it's looking very likely we're in for a belt of the freezer. Perhaps a glancing blow but I think there's alot of brutal cold making a beeline for these parts. Interesting watch for now.

    This isn't even the ramping thread :eek:


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    #3708
    Speak Now
    Registered Users Posts: 8,511 ✭✭✭Speak Now


    Looks like another sinking high by the time it comes into the reliable :(


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    #3709
    dopolahpec
    Closed Accounts Posts: 510 ✭✭✭dopolahpec


    Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »
    Looks like another sinking high by the time it comes into the reliable :(

    Possibly, I noticed that evolution as a possibility with the way GFS is taking things. Deeper cold in the short term, but the actual contact time lessening on each run as the high shows a greater tendency to sink.

    However as things stand it looks super. I would love a short blast of extreme cold, even 2 days.

    On a slightly unrelated note, if real cold/snow does transpire does anyone think that any of the forum members who jumped ship during the 2012/13 winter carnage will return for the party? ;)


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    #3710
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users Posts: 3,133 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    Just saw the GFS 6z - Holy Sweet Jesus! That's epic cold forecast for 6 days time. In fact I'm in London that day (Monday) flying back to Cork. May need a plan B.......

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=144&mode=1


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    #3711
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users Posts: 3,133 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    As an aside, WC closes the ramping thread and, hey presto, there are -12 uppers over Cork. I think the ramping thread was the problem all along......


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    #3712
    Iancar29
    Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    omgwtf.gif

    243740.png


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    #3713
    icesnowfrost
    Registered Users Posts: 1,008 ✭✭✭icesnowfrost


    Since the ramping thread is closed wer can the normal people like me who can't read charts talk about the cold weather?


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    #3714
    H2UMrsRobinson
    Registered Users Posts: 763 ✭✭✭H2UMrsRobinson


    icesnowfrost wrote: »
    Since the ramping thread is closed wer can the normal people like me who can't read charts talk about the cold weather?

    (Shhh. Talking about it makes it downgrade)

    " It's not going to happen, these nutters in here are seeing things. Those charts must be broken or something " cough cough.

    Any plans for the weekend anyone - might have a garden party. I hear the weathers supposed to be loverly - +20 they say!


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    #3715
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users Posts: 3,133 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    icesnowfrost wrote: »
    Since the ramping thread is closed wer can the normal people like me who can't read charts talk about the cold weather?

    icesnowfrost, I know this isn't the question you are asking but you don't need to be able to read charts to follow the models. I would barely know a high pressure from a low pressure but I can read colour coded temp charts with the best of them! Just go to www.meteociel.fr/modeles, click on either ecmwf or gefs, and then click on the "temp. 850hpa" icon. This tells you the the temp at (approx) 1,500 metres up. If its -8 or lower then sneachta is on the cards is there is precipitation around. Genuinely, it sounds complicated but follow these instructions once and you'll do easily next time (and you'll be hooked).


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    #3716
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,732 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    look at the cold weather that sinks into southern Spain and North Africa, bit unrealistic, I know they had snow last week in the costa but that chart would propably deliver over a foot of snow to the resorts of Malaga-Marbella!


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    #3717
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users Posts: 3,133 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    The 12z gfs is largely the same with -8's over everywhere by Monday - but it was -12's for Cork on the 6z so I'm disgusted. I don't get out of bed for less than (more than?) -10's anymore....

    See http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=144&mode=1

    Seems to suggest also that there would be rain to snow event on Sunday evening preceeding this as the cold air seeps south....

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=120&mode=2


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    #3718
    dopolahpec
    Closed Accounts Posts: 510 ✭✭✭dopolahpec


    Rebelbrowser wrote: »
    The 12z gfs is largely the same with -8's over everywhere by Monday - but it was -12's for Cork on the 6z so I'm disgusted. I don't get out of bed for less than (more than?) -10's anymore....

    See http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=144&mode=1

    Seems to suggest also that there would be rain to snow event on Sunday evening preceeding this as the cold air seeps south....

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=120&mode=2

    The blocking high is sinking even faster on the 12z run than the 06z. This trend if it continues will have the cold bypassing us to the southeast.


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    #3719
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users Posts: 3,133 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    dopolahpec wrote: »
    The blocking high is sinking even faster on the 12z run than the 06z. This trend if it continues will have the cold bypassing us to the southeast.

    This possible cold spell is such an unexpected surprise that I won't be disappointed if that (inevitably?) happens. Enjoying the chase again I must say....


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    #3720
    Youneckfreak
    Registered Users Posts: 24 ✭Youneckfreak


    So the south east misses out?


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    #3721
    Speak Now
    Registered Users Posts: 8,511 ✭✭✭Speak Now


    Youneckfreak wrote: »
    So the south east misses out?

    Yeah you should be lucky, no snow.


This discussion has been closed.
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