Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

icesnowfrost

Met e 6 o clock forecast isn't giving me much hope for snow. cold on Monday and Tuesday but no mention of snow maybe the 9 o clock forecast will be better

whitebriar

No it may be worse,guidance for snow risk is dropping rapidly in the reliable 72 hr frame.

United road

whitebriar wrote: »

Ta da for now,next comments from me Sunday,should it be interesting enough.

So have i slept right through the weekend? Is it sunday whitebriar - its just that your posts have actually increased!! :-)

whitebriar

United road wrote: »

So have i slept right through the weekend? Is it sunday whitebriar - its just that your posts have actually increased!! :-)

Ah I'm bored.
Pity there's nothing exciting to report

Redsunset

Evelyn is a superstar full stop.

Any way enjoy the rain. Looks like some flooding for East come Monday.

rickdangerouss

Redsunset wrote: »

Evelyn is a superstar full stop.

Any way enjoy the rain. Looks like some flooding for East come Monday.

alllll gone..... Rome and Sardinia has/going to snow. 300 meters plus for Sardinia. I mean do we need to hit Greenland with some Nukes and stop that nasty warm water thing. Yes I have lost it now. I am off to my cave till next winter.

Weathering

Doesn't seem like we'll get anything now. My depressing post of a couple of days has come to fruition

DanRu

Oh ye of little faith! Track won't become clear till 06Z at least. Be positive about it and it will happen, now lets all go and manifest snow.

barney 20v

DanRu wrote: »

Oh ye of little faith! Track won't become clear till 06Z at least. Be positive about it and it will happen, now lets all go and manifest snow.

This is not the ramping thread...

Deank

barney 20v wrote: »

This is not the ramping thread...

And you own the ramping side of the interweb=-O

Slashermcguirk

They are talking of snow accumulations from Sunday night on met eireann website at the moment. Pretty wintry outlook according to them.

ninebeanrows

A real coup for the GFS with the low Sunday.Monday, UKM totally changing its 850hPa profile in the near term.

Not much to get excited about.

Although the increased chance of finally getting some height rises over Greenland is coming into the 10 day period.

I still expect a incredibly cold March with lots of snow.

howlinwolf

i love your hope weathercheck but to be honest this winter has promised loads and delivered zip.....bar maybe one day a week ago, by the time march comes i for one will be loving the longer evenings and the slight rise in temps the last thing i want is cold and snow just when spring is coming in

Birdnuts

howlinwolf wrote: »

i love your hope weathercheck but to be honest this winter has promised loads and delivered zip.....bar maybe one day a week ago, by the time march comes i for one will be loving the longer evenings and the slight rise in temps the last thing i want is cold and snow just when spring is coming in

Have to agree with that - another stand out for me has been the poor performance of the ECM model. This winter was quiet odd in that the temps were often in the low to mid single figures during the day, yet rarely dipped below zero at any stage, day or night. Which meant we had very few pleasantly crisp days(not to mention proper snow) and were instead plagued with damp chilly nothingness. Unfortunatly a repeat dose is in prospect for the next few days, which coupled with the fun and games elsewhere makes for alot of understandeable frustration on here.

Nabber

We will never learn tho. The ECM will throw out another whopper of a chart, we'll be all back in saying how it is the same as '47, '63, 2010
only to watch it be downgraded.

its fun tho. Was expecting an ordinary winter. Big snow events don't happen often, people in here are sad when it doesn't.
This is why we have a love affair with snow.

John.Icy

I think people are being unfair in labelling ECM as the weak link this winter.

Yes it threw out a stunning run in December, so what. At the time of that run, that's what the predicted synoptics pointed to. If there were no spoiler shortwaves and if blocking didn't set up abit too far North who is to say that +240 wasn't possible??

Granted even I think when it comes to certain scenarios GFS is the best, especially in the nitty gritty scenarios such as tomorrow. But do we give the victory to GFS for it when it was the last model to have a low in the position it will be? Last to pick it up first to say no.

It's been a very up and down winter for models overall. All of the big three have had their spells at the top, and when I find the stats charts again(damn you NOAA website) it'll be easy too see that ECM and UKMO are often the number one model, and even though the GFS is number one at times too, it can fall heavily. Met eireann don't even use the GFS and I'd happily say they have been far and wide the best damn weather service this winter.

So really the ECM 1947 run from December needs to be forgotten and not held against it. Do we hold every hurricane GFS throws at us outside +150 against it? Nope we don't.

Gonzo

for me this winter has been particularly hard to chew, as a child I was spoilt with decent snow events year in, year out like clockwork from the time I was born in early 70s to 1991 as a teenager in secondary school. Snow was only decent if it was more than 5 or 6 inchs deep with snowfalls of 3 inchs going mostly un-noticed. Then we had years of mild muck from 1992 to 2008. Global warming was mostly blamed for that, but I put it down to just shear bad luck. Then 2009 saw a return to a decent February snowfall, then 2010 was as we all know amazing. At that stage I thought Ireland was back on form with the winters I used to remember untill we hit a disaster in 2011 but I just put that down to bad luck. But now this winter has been the worst of them all because ive seen possibly less snow than I saw in 2011 and we came so close to greatness so many times with everywhere else getting plastered except us. So I now realise it's not just bad luck, its the fact that we are an island stuck out in the middle of the Atlantic ocean, nowhere else is so badly positioned for snow as Ireland this far north in the northern hemisphere. We are just so unlucky there is nothing we can do and could well face many more years of relentless marginal muck because of where we are. This winter has been a bitter blow of reality. end of my rant, personally im done with this winter, we could well see snow in March but for me thats too late and does not feel right. In 3 weeks time I'd like to think we will see a gradual rise in temperatures leading to dryer days and more sunshine.

Deank

Gonzo wrote: »

for me this winter has been particularly hard to chew, as a child I was spoilt with decent snow events year in, year out like clockwork from the time I was born in early 70s to 1991 as a teenager in secondary school. Snow was only decent if it was more than 5 or 6 inchs deep with snowfalls of 3 inchs going mostly un-noticed. Then we had years of mild muck from 1992 to 2008. Global warming was mostly blamed for that, but I put it down to just shear bad luck. Then 2009 saw a return to a decent February snowfall, then 2010 was as we all know amazing. At that stage I thought Ireland was back on form with the winters I used to remember untill we hit a disaster in 2011 but I just put that down to bad luck. But now this winter has been the worst of them all because ive seen possibly less snow than I saw in 2011 and we came so close to greatness so many times with everywhere else getting plastered except us. So I now realise it's not just bad luck, its the fact that we are an island stuck out in the middle of the Atlantic ocean, nowhere else is so badly positioned for snow as Ireland this far north in the northern hemisphere. We are just so unlucky there is nothing we can do and could well face many more years of relentless marginal muck because of where we are. This winter has been a bitter blow of reality. end of my rant, personally im done with this winter, we could well see snow in March but for me thats too late and does not feel right. In 3 weeks time I'd like to think we will see a gradual rise in temperatures leading to dryer days and more sunshine.

Paragraphs would be nice, that hurt my eyes

Senna

I though this winter was good and much much better then 2011/2, we've had gales, heavy rain, frost (dec), heavy hail, snow on a few different days. Maybe Donegal was very different to the rest of the country, but 2011/2 was a disaster compared to this winter.

force eleven

Pretty dire stuff for coldies this morning. I think we're done with the chances of lengthy cold, it hasn't happened this winter. One or two day wonders not much consolation .

Rebelbrowser

If only to keep the thread alive I will post.

Nada of excitement to my untrained eyes on this morning's run. Cold but not "snow cold" over the next 10 days with mild interludes. Getting v mild at times mind you...

The GFS in extreme FI does finally show a cold pool to our east but no sign of an easterly to tap into it. By then the fat lady will be warming up anyway I fear as far as winter is concerned.

Mind you, the way the models have performed this year we could be days away from snowmaggedon for all we know....

Harps

Have the models really been that bad recently? There's been very little of interest happening so I haven't exactly been following every run but for the most part they seem to be fine outside the usual 5 day+ inaccuracies? Not perfect by any means but the talk on here suggests that they've been all over the place all winter.

There were one or two marginal events that were causing trouble like the mid January spell but they've generally shown nothing remotely interesting all winter which seems about right considering the lack of weather we've had

Looks like more of the same for the next week as well, cool, calm and damp with nothing happening. Bring on Spring already!

Weathering

Harps wrote: »

Have the models really been ithat bad recently? There's been very little of interest happening so I haven't exactly been following every run but for the most part they seem to be fine outside the usual 5 day+ inaccuracies? Not perfect by any means but the talk on here suggests that they've been all over the place all winter.

There were one or two marginal events that were causing trouble like the mid January spell but they've generally shown nothing remotely interesting all winter which seems about right considering the lack of weather we've had

Looks like more of the same for the next week as well, cool, calm and damp with nothing happening. Bring on Spring already!

Yes they have Harps but as you said yourself you haven't really been following them

Rebelbrowser

Harps wrote: »

Have the models really been that bad recently? There's been very little of interest happening so I haven't exactly been following every run but for the most part they seem to be fine outside the usual 5 day+ inaccuracies? Not perfect by any means but the talk on here suggests that they've been all over the place all winter.

There were one or two marginal events that were causing trouble like the mid January spell but they've generally shown nothing remotely interesting all winter which seems about right considering the lack of weather we've had

Looks like more of the same for the next week as well, cool, calm and damp with nothing happening. Bring on Spring already!

Just my sense of it but I'm not a very experienced or educated model watcher so I'd defer to what Maq, WC, White Briar, etc think.... Perhaps its always like this and the constant moaning on a certain UK website has begun to influence me.

tomcosgrave

I think we are probably done with our chances of a sustained cold spell for this side of 2013. It's been too marginal. Roll on November / December!

Musicman2000

Did someone say winter is over? Even tough it is way on FI. and for those saying its to late in the season for very cold air. If the source is cold enough it shouldn't matter.

mickger844posts

tomcosgrave wrote: »

I think we are probably done with our chances of a sustained cold spell for this side of 2013. It's been too marginal. Roll on November / December!

I think we can safely call the Winter as done at this stage. No sign of any really cold weather in the models. Overall another Winter of so near but yet so far from a decent cold spell. At least we saw snow here in Waterford last week which was our first since early December 2010. Model performance poor to say the least with the ECM gone way down in my estimations. A special mention for Met Eireann who i believe have performed admirably considering what the models were throwing at them.

tomcosgrave

I think you're dead right mickger and I will take ME a bit more seriously from now on...even Gerry "'bit of schleeet" Murphy! ;-)

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Musicman2000 wrote: »

Did someone say winter is over? Even tough it is way on FI. and for those saying its to late in the season for very cold air. If the source is cold enough it shouldn't matter.

Its not at +384 mind !

No towel throwing happening yet

Courtesy Flush

Musicman2000 wrote: »

Did someone say winter is over? Even tough it is way on FI. and for those saying its to late in the season for very cold air. If the source is cold enough it shouldn't matter.

People have been posting these FI maps all winter and they never turn into anything. Whats the point of these maps other than to tease ?