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16-10-2019, 15:20   #46
Gonzo
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Ah Gonzo, you know what youv'e gone and done now, any mention of snow, no matter how little, will bring talk on here of blizzard conditions, lampost watching, and all the rest before the month is out
our chances of seeing snow is probably less than 1%, those snow risk charts could aslo mean sleet. Last winter those snow risked charts showed something nearly every week but not one flake fell here till March.
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16-10-2019, 15:34   #47
odyboody
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I think regulars in here know that if we lived in FI we would have 30c all summer, with rain at night, come winter that will flip to deep snow.
I.E we all know it wont happen but it doesn't stop us from looking
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16-10-2019, 15:43   #48
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our chances of seeing snow is probably less than 1%, those snow risk charts could aslo mean sleet. Last winter those snow risked charts showed something nearly every week but not one flake fell here till March.
I know, its why i pass no real heed of charts and always stick to my trusted method of weather watching, the whatever is happening out the window method
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17-10-2019, 23:11   #49
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Both GFS and ECM showing not as cold by +240 hrs , ECM is colder for a few days before then. Latest charts showing SW'ly milder air being steered up from the tropics by a large system out in the Atlantic. This could make it quite mild if it develops like this.

Both models are showing a large deep depression out in the Atlantic at +240. ECM had hinted at stormy conditions on previous runs as MT had mentioned in his forecast. Long way off but worth keeping an eye if the Jet might have an influence to help steer it towards us between the ridge over Spain and a weaker one near Iceland. Of course it could easily amount to nothing.





















Last edited by Meteorite58; 17-10-2019 at 23:16.
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18-10-2019, 09:32   #50
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ECM showing that area of LP out in the Atlantic drift well away from Ireland rather than move close to it. GFS showing similar. After cool weather pushes down over us from around next Thurs looks like temperatures will turn a bit above avg for most of the BH w/e.




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21-10-2019, 00:01   #51
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Meteo Weather on the BBC very bullish about HP in about 8/9 days - the two main models seem to disagree with one another but neither is that strong on a stable spell developing for more than a couple of days. GEM in the other hand sees a very different set up. HP from 180 hours and out.
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21-10-2019, 00:17   #52
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Meteo Weather on the BBC very bullish about HP in about 8/9 days - the two main models seem to disagree with one another but neither is that strong on a stable spell developing for more than a couple of days. GEM in the other hand sees a very different set up. HP from 180 hours and out.
Saw that myself, unusual to hear them so certain over a week out
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22-10-2019, 11:01   #53
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Weighted ensemble temperature departure for Europe for day 10 to 15. This has been showing up for the last few runs now so perhaps a trend being locked onto?

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23-10-2019, 12:37   #54
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for the past few days, the GFS has been trending colder and colder. Looks like we are now entering a fairly cool spell, which may bring below average temperatures right into the first week of November.


Start of November looks dryish but certainly chilly with daytime temperatures in the single digits. There is potential to see more frost over the next 2 weeks then most of us saw throughout last winter which wouldn't be hard!



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24-10-2019, 23:30   #55
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A cold north-easterly plunge was on the cards (F1 style) but now looks like the HP will actually push it away before an Atlantic flow begins to reestablish itself at the two week mark. Until then good news for potato farmers.
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24-10-2019, 23:48   #56
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A cold north-easterly plunge was on the cards (F1 style) but now looks like the HP will actually push it away before an Atlantic flow begins to reestablish itself at the two week mark. Until then good news for potato farmers.
It's FI style, not F1 style..... Fantasy Island style, not Formula 1 style.

By the way, what model is your source regarding your forecast?

Last edited by highdef; 25-10-2019 at 09:57.
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25-10-2019, 09:47   #57
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Small bit of eye candy for the first week of November. The GFS teases us, as usual from here on in till April….

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25-10-2019, 10:50   #58
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It's FI style, not F1 style..... Fantasy Island style, not Formula 1 style.

By the way, what model is your source regarding your forecast?
the GSF last night, developing HP to the north west which hangs about pushes down over, us retreats a bit and then is pushed south and east as the Atlantic reasserts itself but quite weakly over Ireland from Nov 5th/6th. The possible cold snap doesn't look like happening really, just chilly early winter for 4/5 days end of next week, start of week after.
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25-10-2019, 10:56   #59
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the GSF last night, developing HP to the north west which hangs about pushes down over, us retreats a bit and then is pushed south and east as the Atlantic reasserts itself but quite weakly over Ireland from Nov 5th/6th. The possible cold snap doesn't look like happening really, just chilly early winter for 4/5 days end of next week, start of week after.
Early November Looking Cold?

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25-10-2019, 10:59   #60
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With the cold bias on GFS teasing all the time, what are people's thoughts on whether it would be relied upon as much on longer range forcasts if the other models aren't showing similar set ups?

Are people starting to doubt it?
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