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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Autumn 2019 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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  • Registered Users Posts: 23,422 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    With the clocks back tonight each model run will now be an hour earlier - GFS start, 3:30 am/pm - ECM start, 6:00 am/pm...etc


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,803 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ECM, GFS and GEM all showing areas of LP moving towards us and staying close by or over us next weekend. Looks Quite wet at times and on the cool side. ECM not showing particularly strong winds with this, breezy / windy on coasts. UKMO bit slower bringing the LP towards us but it does show a deepening depression close by heading Eastwards or Northeastwards. GEM showing windy weather.

    Models are showing the Jet taking a more Southerly route below Ireland.

    UieldBl.gif

    bBOqeKY.png

    4YlV2uQ.png


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,803 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    UKMO aand ECM showing a deep area of LP around next Sunday. GFS and GEM also showing something similar although at this stage track and timing different with all the models. ECM and UKMO looks quite windy Sunday at this stage. Looks quite unsettled from next weekend well into the following week.

    O4vZuad.png

    lcUAn8p.png

    UYDQ9Uj.png

    Kdu5yEw.png


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,692 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    next week looks deeply unsettled and quite cool at times:

    This Sunday looks very wet with a deep area of low pressure over us:
    GFSOPEU06_120_1.png

    Tuesday looks cold and showery with north to north-east winds, possible wintryness over high ground.
    GFSOPEU06_177_1.png

    Cold and wet conditions lasting into the week, perhaps some cold rain or sleetyness at times.

    GFSOPEU06_231_1.png

    GFSOPEU06_276_1.png

    a brief attempt at something warmer by 12th of November but it doesn't last long.

    GFSOPEU06_336_1.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,422 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    UW144-21.GIF?29-18

    Some interesting synoptic evolutions starting to show up for next week. Varying on a theme of a northeasterly element and trough disruption.

    Could yet turn out to be a cold week next week.


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,692 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    charts updating, I'm getting cold just looking at what could be in store for early next week. Could be quite a windchill.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,860 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Novemberrrrr has been trending cold for quite a while now. I think 7c will be the temperature a lot of the days and maybe 2 or 3c at night. Just wet to me. Cant see snow in those charts....yet


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,692 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    pauldry wrote: »
    Novemberrrrr has been trending cold for quite a while now. I think 7c will be the temperature a lot of the days and maybe 2 or 3c at night. Just wet to me. Cant see snow in those charts....yet

    yeah looks mostly wet so far. This mornings runs not quite as chilly as what was showing yesterday.Still mostly unsettled with plenty of rain or showers. The wind will certainly make it feel colder than reality.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,803 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Cool if not cold general trend seems to be sticking . ECM showing plenty of cold frosty nights.



    anim_ood3.gif

    UW144-7_fts3.GIF


    wrNcQxe.png

    anim_bbs3.gif


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,692 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    next week is indeed looking fairly chilly from Monday, especially next weekend, this is then followed by a milder trend.

    Next Saturday looks very chilly, day time temperatures around mid single digits and an easterly component to the wind, which could possibly allow streamers to form in some eastern coastal areas. It probably won't be cold enough for snow to settle, but wintry showers can't be ruled out. However this is still a week away.

    GFSOPEU06_195_1.png

    Uppers look fairly cold too:
    GFSOPEU06_195_2.png

    Possible streamer activity: This would most likely be rain and sleet mix.
    192-574UK.GIF?01-6


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  • Registered Users Posts: 23,422 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Shades of 2010 in some of the charts with trough disruption occasionally allowing in some artic air through the Scandinavia route. This in spite of an increase of zonal winds in the northern hemisphere (same as the winters of 2010). But there is a way to go see any upgrades on this and for charts to come closer to fruition.

    I'm actually cautiously optimistic though. There is no angry Atlantic on the march so far which is a positive sign.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,692 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    There is no angry Atlantic on the march so far which is a positive sign.

    There's been a fairly angry Atlantic since September 20th, but it has quietened down a bit. Hopefully we can give it a 3 month sleeping tablet! I'm in the mood to face the great white Siberian Army once again!


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,860 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Shades of 2010 in some of the charts with trough disruption occasionally allowing in some artic air through the Scandinavia route. This in spite of an increase of zonal winds in the northern hemisphere (same as the winters of 2010). But there is a way to go see any upgrades on this and for charts to come closer to fruition.

    I'm actually cautiously optimistic though. There is no angry Atlantic on the march so far which is a positive sign.
    Im of the same mindset Kermit. This could be the one. In 2000 we had lots of snow and 2010 too so maybe 19/20.

    Certainly think a snowier Winter than past few is on the cards.

    Atlantic has been pummelling us since August. Think there might be a lot of days though where people ask "its freezin. How come its still raining?"


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,797 ✭✭✭✭hatrickpatrick


    Almost time to set up this year's Stratosphere Watch thread I reckon, -80 isotherm finally showing up on the FI charts signalling Polar Vortex liftoff. A lot of chatter about how disconnected the strat and trop are this year which should make for an interesting thread! I'll leave it to Sryan or Meteorite to give one of ye'r epic introductory posts for folks new to Strat Watch and away we go :cool:


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,491 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Almost time to set up this year's Stratosphere Watch thread I reckon, -80 isotherm finally showing up on the FI charts signalling Polar Vortex liftoff. A lot of chatter about how disconnected the strat and trop are this year which should make for an interesting thread! I'll leave it to Sryan or Meteorite to give one of ye'r epic introductory posts for folks new to Strat Watch and away we go :cool:

    Here ya go, I did the honours. :D

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058027477


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,422 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    The Beast from the East knocking on our door on the latest GFS run this morning through mid month.

    ECM a lot more sober.

    Interesting times ahead.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,244 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    The Beast from the East knocking on our door on the latest GFS run this morning through mid month.

    ECM a lot more sober.

    Interesting times ahead.

    Could it be 2010 all over again?! :-D


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,491 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    leahyl wrote: »
    Could it be 2010 all over again?! :-D

    There was a lot of hype mid-November last year for the same prospects mind you. More promise this year with the drivers but let's not count our chickens before they're hatched.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,982 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    There was a lot of hype mid-November last year for the same prospects mind you. More promise this year with the drivers but let's not count our chickens before they're hatched.

    The GFS in particular should be taken with a pinch of salt. Remember when it kept showing 2010-style charts last November run after run?


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,491 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Artane2002 wrote: »
    The GFS in particular should be taken with a pinch of salt. Remember when it kept showing 2010-style charts last November run after run?

    My point exactly. I'll show one example in particular from the 12z on 13 November 2018. See how the setup progresses from a Euro High to a big Scandi High retrogressing to a Greenland High (the Scandi High verified however and I think it was record breaking for November).

    vXTDKW5.gif


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,488 ✭✭✭Hooter23


    I think we are overdue a cold winter by now...our cold mostly arrived around spring time over the last few years as it usually does anyway


  • Registered Users Posts: 399 ✭✭Reversal


    Artane2002 wrote: »
    The GFS in particular should be taken with a pinch of salt. Remember when it kept showing 2010-style charts last November run after run?

    It has been the same the last number of Novembers. Very strange.


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,422 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Plenty of cold air pooling over Scandinavia through the coming week.

    gfs-1-150.png?12

    Just need the trigger to send it this direction. If we maintain the jet profile trend of sending cut-off areas of low pressure northwest -> southeast we are in with a real shot later in the month.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,692 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    latest gfs ensembles are interesting, been watching them closely over the past few days. They have been showing a cool to cold first 10 days of November with a warming trend towards the end. Over the past few days the return to normal values has been getting pushed back with the cool spell getting more prolonged. Will be interesting if this continues the pattern through the coming week.

    ens_image.php?geoid=64981&var=201&run=12&date=2019-11-03&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1

    Nothing terribly cold on the horizon but certainly looking chilly. As we get into the later stages of November, the chances of these cold rain systems and showers turning to sleet or snow would increase, once we continue to keep the mild air out of our way.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    The current early November pattern is remarkably similar to that of the early November pattern of 2009, with lows tending to dive bomb Ireland from the WNW rather than the WSW. One advantage is that this keeps warm air from penetrating too far into the Norwegian sea area, which would give this region some precious time to have a much needed cool down.

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,860 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Think the mild will eventually push through but 6 to 9c looks our lot after midweek for a few days and tips of mountains may be dusted in snow


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,944 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    A rather blue looking FI :D

    coldnov1.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,860 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Need GFS to predict 14 days of snow in a row and we might get one. So far the mild is making no inroads.

    Probably cold for most of Novembrr then extremely mild and misty in December


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    ECM this morning, pretty chilly with lows sliding and disrupting on an ever more NW-SE trajectory - A few tweaks and this is very cold by day 9/10...

    ECMOPEU00_192_1.png


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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,125 ✭✭✭highdef


    BLIZZARD7 wrote: »
    ECM this morning, pretty chilly with lows sliding and disrupting on an ever more NW-SE trajectory - A few tweaks and this is very cold by day 9/10...

    ECMOPEU00_192_1.png
    Agreed, if this trend continues things will be getting very interesting in a few weeks time.


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