FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Autumn 2019 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Meteorite58

ECM still holding the general track of the remnants of Dorian. It is far to early to know if any remnants of any severity will make it this far, but worth keeping an eye on. GFS is almost a carbon copy of the ECM atm on this one.

These are 850hpa winds, about 1.5 km's above sea level, a rough guide to what gusts could be like.

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Mod Note

This thread is for posting/discussing/analyzing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally +T120 onward.

If your post does not specifically relate to an FI chart then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved

Thanks

Meteorite58

Main models atm showing the remnants of Dorian pass well off the NW next week . Breezy in general, windy on coasts and some rain. Nothing out of the ordinary at this stage.

MJohnston

ECM has Gabrielle just grazing the North of Scotland next Thursday. Not much too it right now, but worth keeping an eye on.

Meteorite58

While the remnants of Dorian have been trending to pass well to the NW producing just some windy weather on the coasts and breezy weather overland with a front producing a modest amount of rain, ex Gabrielle although smaller in nature by the time it reaches our shores has been trending to deepen a bit as it passes close to the NW , producing strong winds in the Northernmost tip of Scotland on the present run. ICON strongest and furthest offshore, GFS next and ECM least windy on the latest runs. A good bit to go yet.

Often track further N as time draws close but definitely one to keep an eye on as MJohnston posted above.

Meteorite58

Strong jet helping to re-energize ex Gabrielle perhaps

sdanseo

Comparison with Ophelia also around 2 days after its formation. Much further west and too cold.

Ophelia was literally a perfect storm, westerlies only kick in around 30N.

Gonzo

next two looks is looking increasingly dry, warm and settled with very little rain forecast after this week has passed, even this week doesn't look that wet.

Dublin see's very little rain from the 13th to the 24th of September and temperatures rising from the 14th.



High pressure looks set to dominate from the 13th:


Winds swing around from the south-east drawing up warmer air from central and southern Europe:



Atlantic makes an attempt in on the 19th of September:


High pressure tries to get going again by the 22nd


Uppers look high for the time of year during this spell, could get temperatures into the low to mid 20's



Even up to the end of FI, uppers look quite toasty for September:



Fingers crossed this will work out, what could be one final push for Summer weather, would be a very welcome change after the average August and something to look forward to before Autumn properly digs in for October.

km79

Yes yes yes yes yes yes
Give it to me baby

Gonzo

km79 wrote: »

Yes yes yes yes yes yes
Give it to me baby

looks great right now, but this is still a week away, i'd expect this to get downgraded somewhat with temperatures and the high could easily shift further east keeping Ireland with more of an Atlantic influence, but we shall see.

Meteorite58

Ireland more under the influence of Hp which stays close by out to the following week end with the models in good agreement.

pauldry

Highs for the West are now like snow. A predicted long spell of snow usually means one day in Winter. For this spell I told my wife next Tuesday will be warm but drizzle every other day.

Meteorite58

ECM holding the Hp more than the GFS. GEM better than the GFS also.

Meteorite58

Hp seems to be holding until about next Fri. As MT said in his forecast with a possible breakdown around weekend of 21st - 22nd. Atlantic possibly becoming active again by next weekend .Tropical activity peaking around now and currently models picking up possible systems tracking our way but very far out. Good to keep an eye on and see if there is an active trend developing .

In general temperatures above normal and pleasantly mild or warm at times. Will be interesting to see if the temperatures MT are talking about materialize.

Meteorite58

Models chopping an changing a bit from the weekend, GFS was showing some deep lows but dropped them, now the ECM showing a deepening low for next Sunday but this could disappear again. The Jet which will be mostly arcing North of us this week looks set to move in over us from around the weekend. Very hard to predict what will happen but we could be seeing some sort of depression or storm being churned out . ECM on its own with this one for now.

Santy2015

Hurricane Humberto? Seeing it’s path might edge towards Ireland...

Meteorite58

Yea looks like the remnants from Tropical activity merging with systems in our Latitudes swept along by a vigorous Jet next week. All the models showing some deep Lp at various timings, strengths and different tracks. Will take a few days to have a better idea I would imagine. Could be quite unsettled at times compared to our benign weather of late. These could still mostly track their more usual route up off the NW . Current charts showing some heavy rains at times and strong winds, mostly in coastal areas. GEM showing one particular nasty storm around Monday /Tuesday but this might not even feature on the next couple of runs. Looks like we are going to have a few Autumn Gales which will be a big departure from our more benign weather of late.

Meteorite58

ECM 0Z has the large area of LP that looks to park off our W / NW shores next week eventually drift to the NE dragging down a colder NE'ly / N'ly air mass which could bring night time temps down to low single digits.

Harry Palmr

Any chance of fewer images being posted?! Or to edit them at least?

Anyway the GFS and ECM are completely at odds in F1 (day 9-10) territory. ECM much more settled, GSF is just one low pressure system after another.

Meteorite58

ECM 0Z not as cold as the previous run. Shows ridging up over Ireland keeping the Arctic cold advection into Europe . Will see if this holds or swings back on the next run. Going to be difficult to have any reliable charts into FI with all the tropical activity heading our way.

km79

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Any chance of fewer images being posted?! Or to edit them at least?

Anyway the GFS and ECM are completely at odds in F1 (day 9-10) territory. ECM much more settled, GSF is just one low pressure system after another.

The thread is literally about the charts !!!!

Harry Palmr

Sure Sure but they are horrid PNG files not efficient JPGs

MJohnston

We just need to pool our resources to give Meteorite a Meteologix "Ad Free Plus" package - then we'd get sweet sweet GIFs.

Santy2015

Storm acoming according to weatheralerts Ireland on facebook(?

pad199207

Santy2015 wrote: »

Storm acoming according to weatheralerts Ireland on facebook(?

Indeed they are alarming charts. Giving me shivers reminding me of Ophelia.
But it’s daaaaays away

Santy2015

Looks interesting alright. Doubt it’ll be the same

aisling86

Very interesting alright!

Meteorite58

MJohnston wrote: »

We just need to pool our resources to give Meteorite a Meteologix "Ad Free Plus" package - then we'd get sweet sweet GIFs.

I have it

But annoyingly you cant pick a specific couple of days to put in a GIF , it just seems to load all the charts or else there is something I am missing !

Anyway I get Harry's point , maybe 7 charts in the one post is a bit too much .



ECM keeping the cold pool over Europe at the end of the run.

Santy2015

Tropical storm Lorenzo? Looks very interesting on windy.com

Villain

Track on latest GFS is fun but keeps it south of us, mind you at +240 the difference between GFS and ECM is pretty big.

Interesting one to watch but if one more person asks me if another Ophelia is coming when it is over 10 days away I might cry

The12thMan

so, 10th of October looks interesting.....

Meteorite58

Models quite similar showing a cooling trend .

Meteorite58

For a few runs the ECM has been showing LP's deepening close by around next Tues 15th, current run shows very windy over the country from the fast moving system. Not as close by from the other models yet they do show LP systems out in the Atlantic .

Long way off ,will see if anything develops over the coming days.

Meteorite58

LP in the early days of next week not as close as previous runs according to the ECM 12Z.

Windy and possibly quite wet at times but typical Autumn weather and not showing severe weather at this stage .

Oneiric 3

A tentative hint of something more settled, or at least a hint of something a bit less unsettled towards the last week of October?

sideswipe

Would be interested to get some expert opinion about the chart above. What kind of conditions could be expected with this type set up at that time of year? I'm guessing quite settled and mild...possibly humid?

It's Dublin Marathon day so I'm watching it with great interest. Any observations from other models would be greatly appreciated!!

odyboody

2 weeks away, may as well draw your own chart with crayons. It would probably be as close at this distance

sideswipe

I'm well aware it's 2 weeks away, that's why I'm posting in the Fantasy Island thread.

Meteorite58

sideswipe wrote: »

Would be interested to get some expert opinion about the chart above. What kind of conditions could be expected with this type set up at that time of year? I'm guessing quite settled and mild...possibly humid?

It's Dublin Marathon day so I'm watching it with great interest. Any observations from other models would be greatly appreciated!!

No expert but IMO at the far reaches of FI for awhile yet but worth keeping an eye to see if a trend sets in for around then. Can understand it is an important event for those organizing and taking part in , I remember from previous years it can be very important for the participants to get the gear right for the day.

So currently looks like a cool NW/ly / N'ly airflow . Nothing severe currently showing up near Ireland around that time.

Over the coming days will see if the charts bear resemblance to today's output.

sideswipe

Thanks for taking the time to look Meteorite, much appreciated.

Meteorite58

GFS 12Z has a cold wintry look to it out in FI. That would probably put a few white caps on the mountains if it verified. Just putting it here to compare with in a weeks time to see if it will bare any resemblance.

At + 240 hrs ECM and GEM look much milder than the GFS.

Meteorite58

ECM 0z now much cooler in the last few days of the run towards the Bank Holiday weekend. GEM follows the same trend, GFS still has the cold plunge into Europe, looks cold around BH w/e if somewhat a bit tamer looking than previous runs for Ireland after that, being on the usual boundary between cold and milder air.

Overall I would think a colder trend showing up into late Oct early Nov.

Gonzo

just for fun: this morning's ensembles showing the slightest snow risk for Dublin towards the end of the month:



Very early for this to appear, chances are we won't see anything of the sort. Sure there wasn't even a snowflake in most places all through last winter! The last time we had snow at the end of October was October 2008, sadly I wasn't here for it, but it is extremely rare to see snow fall at the end of October.

Kamili

And it begins....

Rebelbrowser

Did someone say snow?

Rock Lesnar

Gonzo wrote: »

just for fun: this morning's ensembles showing the slightest snow risk for Dublin towards the end of the month:



Very early for this to appear, chances are we won't see anything of the sort. Sure there wasn't even a snowflake in most places all through last winter! The last time we had snow at the end of October was October 2008, sadly I wasn't here for it, but it is extremely rare to see snow fall at the end of October.

Ah Gonzo, you know what youv'e gone and done now, any mention of snow, no matter how little, will bring talk on here of blizzard conditions, lampost watching, and all the rest before the month is out

Gonzo

Rock Lesnar wrote: »

Ah Gonzo, you know what youv'e gone and done now, any mention of snow, no matter how little, will bring talk on here of blizzard conditions, lampost watching, and all the rest before the month is out

our chances of seeing snow is probably less than 1%, those snow risk charts could aslo mean sleet. Last winter those snow risked charts showed something nearly every week but not one flake fell here till March.

odyboody

I think regulars in here know that if we lived in FI we would have 30c all summer, with rain at night, come winter that will flip to deep snow.
I.E we all know it wont happen but it doesn't stop us from looking:D

Rock Lesnar

Gonzo wrote: »

our chances of seeing snow is probably less than 1%, those snow risk charts could aslo mean sleet. Last winter those snow risked charts showed something nearly every week but not one flake fell here till March.

I know, its why i pass no real heed of charts and always stick to my trusted method of weather watching, the whatever is happening out the window method

Meteorite58

Both GFS and ECM showing not as cold by +240 hrs , ECM is colder for a few days before then. Latest charts showing SW'ly milder air being steered up from the tropics by a large system out in the Atlantic. This could make it quite mild if it develops like this.

Both models are showing a large deep depression out in the Atlantic at +240. ECM had hinted at stormy conditions on previous runs as MT had mentioned in his forecast. Long way off but worth keeping an eye if the Jet might have an influence to help steer it towards us between the ridge over Spain and a weaker one near Iceland. Of course it could easily amount to nothing.

Meteorite58

ECM showing that area of LP out in the Atlantic drift well away from Ireland rather than move close to it. GFS showing similar. After cool weather pushes down over us from around next Thurs looks like temperatures will turn a bit above avg for most of the BH w/e.

Harry Palmr

Meteo Weather on the BBC very bullish about HP in about 8/9 days - the two main models seem to disagree with one another but neither is that strong on a stable spell developing for more than a couple of days. GEM in the other hand sees a very different set up. HP from 180 hours and out.