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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Autumn 2019 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

  • 01-09-2019 8:07pm
    #1
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,470 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    ECM still holding the general track of the remnants of Dorian. It is far to early to know if any remnants of any severity will make it this far, but worth keeping an eye on. GFS is almost a carbon copy of the ECM atm on this one.

    These are 850hpa winds, about 1.5 km's above sea level, a rough guide to what gusts could be like.


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    Mod Note

    This thread is for posting/discussing/analyzing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally +T120 onward.

    If your post does not specifically relate to an FI chart then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved

    Thanks


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Comments

  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,470 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Main models atm showing the remnants of Dorian pass well off the NW next week . Breezy in general, windy on coasts and some rain. Nothing out of the ordinary at this stage.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 10,347 ✭✭✭✭ MJohnston


    ECM has Gabrielle just grazing the North of Scotland next Thursday. Not much too it right now, but worth keeping an eye on.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,470 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    While the remnants of Dorian have been trending to pass well to the NW producing just some windy weather on the coasts and breezy weather overland with a front producing a modest amount of rain, ex Gabrielle although smaller in nature by the time it reaches our shores has been trending to deepen a bit as it passes close to the NW , producing strong winds in the Northernmost tip of Scotland on the present run. ICON strongest and furthest offshore, GFS next and ECM least windy on the latest runs. A good bit to go yet.

    Often track further N as time draws close but definitely one to keep an eye on as MJohnston posted above.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,470 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Strong jet helping to re-energize ex Gabrielle perhaps

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  • Registered Users Posts: 9,183 ✭✭✭ sdanseo


    Comparison with Ophelia also around 2 days after its formation. Much further west and too cold.

    Ophelia was literally a perfect storm, westerlies only kick in around 30N.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,184 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    next two looks is looking increasingly dry, warm and settled with very little rain forecast after this week has passed, even this week doesn't look that wet.

    Dublin see's very little rain from the 13th to the 24th of September and temperatures rising from the 14th.

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    High pressure looks set to dominate from the 13th:
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    Winds swing around from the south-east drawing up warmer air from central and southern Europe:

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    Atlantic makes an attempt in on the 19th of September:
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    High pressure tries to get going again by the 22nd
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    Uppers look high for the time of year during this spell, could get temperatures into the low to mid 20's

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    Even up to the end of FI, uppers look quite toasty for September:

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    Fingers crossed this will work out, what could be one final push for Summer weather, would be a very welcome change after the average August and something to look forward to before Autumn properly digs in for October.


  • Registered Users Posts: 47,643 ✭✭✭✭ km79


    Yes yes yes yes yes yes
    Give it to me baby


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,184 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    km79 wrote: »
    Yes yes yes yes yes yes
    Give it to me baby

    looks great right now, but this is still a week away, i'd expect this to get downgraded somewhat with temperatures and the high could easily shift further east keeping Ireland with more of an Atlantic influence, but we shall see.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,470 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Ireland more under the influence of Hp which stays close by out to the following week end with the models in good agreement.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,853 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Highs for the West are now like snow. A predicted long spell of snow usually means one day in Winter. For this spell I told my wife next Tuesday will be warm but drizzle every other day.


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,470 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    ECM holding the Hp more than the GFS. GEM better than the GFS also.


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,470 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Hp seems to be holding until about next Fri. As MT said in his forecast with a possible breakdown around weekend of 21st - 22nd. Atlantic possibly becoming active again by next weekend .Tropical activity peaking around now and currently models picking up possible systems tracking our way but very far out. Good to keep an eye on and see if there is an active trend developing .

    In general temperatures above normal and pleasantly mild or warm at times. Will be interesting to see if the temperatures MT are talking about materialize.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,470 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Models chopping an changing a bit from the weekend, GFS was showing some deep lows but dropped them, now the ECM showing a deepening low for next Sunday but this could disappear again. The Jet which will be mostly arcing North of us this week looks set to move in over us from around the weekend. Very hard to predict what will happen but we could be seeing some sort of depression or storm being churned out . ECM on its own with this one for now.





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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,065 Santy2015


    Hurricane Humberto? Seeing it’s path might edge towards Ireland...


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,470 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Yea looks like the remnants from Tropical activity merging with systems in our Latitudes swept along by a vigorous Jet next week. All the models showing some deep Lp at various timings, strengths and different tracks. Will take a few days to have a better idea I would imagine. Could be quite unsettled at times compared to our benign weather of late. These could still mostly track their more usual route up off the NW . Current charts showing some heavy rains at times and strong winds, mostly in coastal areas. GEM showing one particular nasty storm around Monday /Tuesday but this might not even feature on the next couple of runs. Looks like we are going to have a few Autumn Gales which will be a big departure from our more benign weather of late.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,470 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    ECM 0Z has the large area of LP that looks to park off our W / NW shores next week eventually drift to the NE dragging down a colder NE'ly / N'ly air mass which could bring night time temps down to low single digits.

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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 40,086 ✭✭✭✭ Harry Palmr


    Any chance of fewer images being posted?! Or to edit them at least? :)

    Anyway the GFS and ECM are completely at odds in F1 (day 9-10) territory. ECM much more settled, GSF is just one low pressure system after another.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,470 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    ECM 0Z not as cold as the previous run. Shows ridging up over Ireland keeping the Arctic cold advection into Europe . Will see if this holds or swings back on the next run. Going to be difficult to have any reliable charts into FI with all the tropical activity heading our way.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 47,643 ✭✭✭✭ km79


    Any chance of fewer images being posted?! Or to edit them at least? :)

    Anyway the GFS and ECM are completely at odds in F1 (day 9-10) territory. ECM much more settled, GSF is just one low pressure system after another.

    The thread is literally about the charts !!!!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 40,086 ✭✭✭✭ Harry Palmr


    Sure Sure but they are horrid PNG files not efficient JPGs


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  • Registered Users Posts: 10,347 ✭✭✭✭ MJohnston


    We just need to pool our resources to give Meteorite a Meteologix "Ad Free Plus" package - then we'd get sweet sweet GIFs.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,065 Santy2015


    Storm acoming according to weatheralerts Ireland on facebook(?


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,449 ✭✭✭ pad199207


    Santy2015 wrote: »
    Storm acoming according to weatheralerts Ireland on facebook(?

    Indeed they are alarming charts. Giving me shivers reminding me of Ophelia.
    But it’s daaaaays away


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,065 Santy2015


    Looks interesting alright. Doubt it’ll be the same


  • Registered Users Posts: 529 ✭✭✭ aisling86


    Very interesting alright!


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,470 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    MJohnston wrote: »
    We just need to pool our resources to give Meteorite a Meteologix "Ad Free Plus" package - then we'd get sweet sweet GIFs.

    I have it :)

    But annoyingly you cant pick a specific couple of days to put in a GIF , it just seems to load all the charts or else there is something I am missing !

    Anyway I get Harry's point , maybe 7 charts in the one post is a bit too much .



    ECM keeping the cold pool over Europe at the end of the run.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,065 Santy2015


    Tropical storm Lorenzo? Looks very interesting on windy.com


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,847 ✭✭✭✭ Villain


    Track on latest GFS is fun but keeps it south of us, mind you at +240 the difference between GFS and ECM is pretty big.

    Interesting one to watch but if one more person asks me if another Ophelia is coming when it is over 10 days away I might cry :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 142 ✭✭ The12thMan


    so, 10th of October looks interesting.....

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,470 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Models quite similar showing a cooling trend .


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