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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Autumn 2019 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Meteorite58

ECM still holding the general track of the remnants of Dorian. It is far to early to know if any remnants of any severity will make it this far, but worth keeping an eye on. GFS is almost a carbon copy of the ECM atm on this one.

These are 850hpa winds, about 1.5 km's above sea level, a rough guide to what gusts could be like.

Mod Note

This thread is for posting/discussing/analyzing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally +T120 onward.

If your post does not specifically relate to an FI chart then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved

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Villain

haha!

A bit of an outlier, look at the control run compared to the operational run!

gefsens850Dublin0.png?w=800&h=600&mode=stretch&quality=40&colors=128&cb=2019111130

gefsens850Dublin0.png?w=800&h=600&mode=stretch&quality=40&colors=128&cb=2019111130

Kermit.de.frog

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oAKG-kbKeIo

pauldry

Trending milder again. Definitely would think by late November mild muck will return. Mid month looks transitional after a brief colder interlude

Meteorite58

Trending on the cool side.

Kermit.de.frog

Wednesday showing more white gold promise this morning with that low pressure to the northwest sliding in to cold air over the country.

One to watch.

hatrickpatrick

Tonight's ECM 12z is very interesting to say the least, both in terms of the Europe charts and the Northern Hemisphere. Very broken down and disrupted compared to recent Novembers. You can really see heights trying to extend from the mid latitudes into the pole, from several angles. Heights pushing northward both from the Northeast Pacific off Alaska, the Atlantic centred on Iceland, and east of Scandi.

Still nothing concrete, but this all begins to evolve at 120h so it's just coming into the reliable timeframe. The GFS 18z is nowhere near as bullish, showing the polar vortex holding its own against these multi-pronged attacks, but the UKMO while only having glimpsing FI in its timeframes, also seems to be on board.

Potentially very interesting week of model watching ahead!

Naggdefy

pauldry wrote: »

After mild run on GFS earlier still looks like temperatures in the teens are over 300hrs away

240 hrs or 10 days is the max I'll extend to with a weather forecast.

Also despite some improvements in LRFs forecasting what the weather will be like Dec to Feb seems out of the question still. You could be in driving easterlies on 10 Jan. You're just more likely to be in South westerlies and I think that's why all the long range models predict so.

pauldry

After mild run on GFS earlier still looks like temperatures in the teens are over 300hrs away

Meteorite58

Been watching the charts for around next Weds /Thurs . ECM for a few runs now has been showing areas of LP coming down from around Greenland and moving in a NW to SE direction down across the country with very cold mid and upper airs. As is the norm being still 120+ hrs away the charts are changing with timing a bit but the theme has been there for a few runs showing the possibility of wintry precipitation or dare I say even some snow. Totally know that this is still a long way off but hey, starved of a bit of unusual weather ! So if anything a focus perhaps for next week to see how how wintry it might get around midweek.

The freezing level is quite low in parts and from the past have seen it drop very low under an area of LP . Could be quite cool on Weds / Thurs with a wind chill. Air Temperatures dont seem to get down low enough for much standing snow as it could be breezy or windy overland but it could accumulate overnight if the main fall happened then, may only be a slushy mess or some white on hills, will see over the coming runs . No hype just what the ECM is showing now, could disappear or moderate to just sleet or rain so will see over the coming runs . 528dam line well South of Ireland.

BLIZZARD7

ECM does not look particularly mild though... I wouldn't call it either way at the moment beyond 10 days - 2 weeks. We could still be in a similar pattern to now at the end of the month.

Gonzo

looks like the mild is going to make a return final week of November and into the first week of December. The mild southwesterlies come back.

Very mild by 24th of November.

The JMA models are predicting a very mild start to December with temperatures between 1 and 3C above average. Seems everything is on track for our annual very mild December. Many of the long term models are predicting a very mild winter. The far reaches of FI are definitely showing signs of the start of this milder pattern taking shape.

Gaoth Laidir

A minor upgrade to the GFS was introduced yesterday. We'll see if the additional SST data will improve its cold bias.

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1192551207660924937?s=19

pauldry

Surely if the pattern continues for a month we will get at least some night snow. Saw a 14 day forecast for Sligo on google and it had max 8 and min 3 for nearly every day. Sounds lazy but it could be close enough to reality

Gonzo

nacho libre wrote: »

If Carlsberg did ideal model evolutions, the arctic high would eventually link up with the smidgen of heights in the north atlantic. At least we are not seeing nightmare inducing charts at the moment anyway.

The return to mild after November 15th is getting downgraded a bit. The North-West to South-East movement of lows from Greenland down to France looks like continuing for the time being. Some of these lows may bring in northeast to northerly winds as they clear southeastwards across the country with wintry potential more of a risk later in the month if this pattern continues into the 3rd and 4th week of November.

No real sign of any return of the mild westerlys/south-westerlys over the next 10 to 15 days with the ECM looking slightly chillier than the GFS.

nacho libre

319353556_UN144-21(1).gif.850190339764f22df9cb627096fc7a58.gif

If Carlsberg did ideal model evolutions, the arctic high would eventually link up with the smidgen of heights in the north atlantic. At least we are not seeing nightmare inducing charts at the moment anyway.

nacho libre

ZX7R wrote: »

But the reality is that February is traditionly when we would get proper blast of cold / snow.
2010 event has really changed people's outlooks,it was really a one in a lifetime event

Yes , February is the optimum month for snow in this country, however if you look back over the last 70 years, we have gotten decent snowy events in the heart of winter sometimes.
You're right though, 2010 was an exceptional event, but so too was the beast from the east in its own way. So maybe we will be lucky enough to see another notable wintry episode before we exit stage left.

ZX7R

Gonzo wrote: »

That started in the final days of February and into the 1st week of March. I think what most people would like is there to be a properly snowy spell between mid December and early February to really tap into the coldest of air with less chance of thawing.

The Beast From The East/Storm Emma was decent, but if the exact same event happened a month earlier, it would have been a more potent and longer lasting beast!

End of February and into March we see snow most years, but rarely get anything decent in December and January when we need it the most!

But the reality is that February is traditionly when we would get proper blast of cold / snow.
2010 event has really changed people's outlooks,it was really a one in a lifetime event

Gonzo

Rougies wrote: »

Are you forgetting the Beast from the East/Storm Emma in 2018?

That started in the final days of February and into the 1st week of March. I think what most people would like is there to be a properly snowy spell between mid December and early February to really tap into the coldest of air with less chance of thawing.

The Beast From The East/Storm Emma was decent, but if the exact same event happened a month earlier, it would have been a more potent and longer lasting beast!

End of February and into March we see snow most years, but rarely get anything decent in December and January when we need it the most!

esposito

Rougies wrote: »

Are you forgetting the Beast from the East/Storm Emma in 2018?

I think he might have been referring to the winter months of December, January and February. Storm Emma happened on March 1st & 2nd

Rougies

nacho libre wrote: »

As long as the jetstream continues to track to the south
we have a chance to tap into colder incursions- nothing unusual, though. My fear is the Polar Vortex will get its act together, and take up its usual residence, in December.

Still I'm still hoping the low solar activity will somehow have a positive role to play this winter. Also we are overdue a decent wintry period- we tend to get one every nine or 10 years so.

Are you forgetting the Beast from the East/Storm Emma in 2018?

nacho libre

As long as the jetstream continues to track to the south
we have a chance to tap into colder incursions- nothing unusual, though. My fear is the Polar Vortex will get its act together, and take up its usual residence, in December.

Still I'm still hoping the low solar activity will somehow have a positive role to play this winter. Also we are overdue a decent wintry period- we tend to get one every nine or 10 years so.

sryanbruen

This is the kind of thing I was talking 'bout really, nothing worth getting excited about. NAO is neutral to slightly positive right now and is forecast to stay at a similar level by the current GEFS although maybe a tick up in +NAO by day 10 before a reduction by day 14 again.

Still no sign of the trop and strat reconnecting so arctic blocking likely to continue which could be associated with the cold plunge into North America although there is probably still gonna be high pressure close to Scandinavia or Russia.

I'd say another feed of cold and wet miserable northwesterlies are more likely than moist and humid southwesterlies, seems to be the theme of this sh!t November. However, there could be some transient southwesterlies as is the case with these "zonal sine waves" usually. Overall, I do not see a big temperature deviation either way but it would feel cooler under all that rain nevertheless! November really showing its true colours this year..

Villain

The operational is very much on the cold side of the members though the trend is certainly more towards the milder outcome

squarecircles

Knife edge ninja snow situations.Love storms too.At least the weather is not going to be borning.

Gonzo

KingdomRushed wrote: »

Interesting to see the phantom high latitude blocking evaporate from GFS output overnight and this morning. Typical sequence in the models for the time of year. The outlook now for a mega-powered jet sending horribly cold northwesterlies across ireland, with plenty showers and rain bands. Usual deep cold plunges a plenty for north and east USA.

a return to normal/mild conditions is looking more likely now into the second half of November with possibly a very strong jet stream. Right now there is nothing I'd like more than a few weeks of dry and settled conditions for a chance to dry out the land and leave us less likely to yet more flooding. The Atlantic has been on fire since mid September, this looks set to continue throughout November. As for a proper cold blast keeping the Atlantic at bay, that's going to take some time to try and quieten down the Atlantic.

giveitholly

KingdomRushed wrote: »

Interesting to see the phantom high latitude blocking evaporate from GFS output overnight and this morning. Typical sequence in the models for the time of year. The outlook now for a mega-powered jet sending horribly cold northwesterlies across ireland, with plenty showers and rain bands. Usual deep cold plunges a plenty for north and east USA.

That deep cold sinking down into northeast USA usually fires up the Atlantic!!

KingdomRushed

Interesting to see the phantom high latitude blocking evaporate from GFS output overnight and this morning. Typical sequence in the models for the time of year. The outlook now for a mega-powered jet sending horribly cold northwesterlies across ireland, with plenty showers and rain bands. Usual deep cold plunges a plenty for north and east USA.

pauldry

Yes my car slid all the way down the hill at our house n only for the speed bump would hv ended up 300 yards down the road. Some kids pushed it back up to the house at the time. Impossible to drive on. Dried up the next day and it was minus 13 in some places

Rebelbrowser

Kamili wrote: »

I'd give anything to see freezing rain, its fairly rare!

Experienced it in Cork on Christmas day 2009 and never want to experience it again. Absolutely lethal - everyone falling around the place with lots of injuries suffered and driving a car virtually suicidal.

Gonzo

pauldry wrote: »

Sure is. See more mild muck breaking out on each GFS run. Now Id say after midmonth itl get mild. But maybe the next cold outbreak will being the snozzle

I thought yesterdays GFS run had a milder end to it. It is still showing a return to normal values by the 17th of November but that's a long way off and there is uncertainty about the return to mild. The next few days will tell if the mild trend for the second half of November holds any weight.