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Current Weather indications
Comments
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Weathercheck Go for Cold - If this goes tits up you can shoot me..
Severe late winter cold spell may cause severe shock to our nation
No the world isnt coming to an end, but Ireland could be facing its most prolonged and coldest period of weather for many years. Artic winds this weekend caused major power outages across the region with a few snow showers. What if we had a cold spell twice as hard as that for 5-10 days? Well that's what Ireland is set for if the GFS model is correct. Consistency over the last few weeks with this model has not been great but with a much shorter timescale GFS is throwing up some startling charts for even the hardest man on the street. With just 5 or 6 days until what could be Ireland's coldest spell of weather in nearly a decade, what would this mean for the Country. With mid February truely here we thought Spring would arrive, the cattle have been put back out in the fields, our spring flowers have blossomed and most worryingly humans here in Ireland also think Spring is here. Harsh cold weather is no longer a part of the average winter, a mere 2 or 3 day cold spell in this day in age is severe, how would we cope with something like an 80's type cold spell? Drifts 2 or 3 feet high for days and weeks, cold artic wind with snow by day with the east of our Island being worst affected. It would mean great hardship at the best of times but would cause major problems for our society, many farmers would be ruined and average daily life would be no more. Thankfully this cold spell does not look to be desperately severe but in this day in age at this time in the year it could cause major problems for a small community and espcially the built up east of our country.
Confidence on 5 day+ Cold Spell is 70%
We are now very confident of this and from Sunday Ireland will
enter a prolonged 5day + cold spell
Early indications suggest the arrival of cold as early as Saturday
with finer detail coming out later this week.
This time im well confident
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Weathercheck wrote:I think a week long cold spell with snow would bring this
country to a standstill..do you think not?
Oh I give up Matt :mad:
Why on earth do you always take every cold run as gospel?? It may well turn colder yes, but there is nothing whatsoever in ANY of the models to suggest the country would be brought to a standstill!
-5 air over most of England at this time of year would result in snow for the higher ground. Not exclusively so, but mainly and the air would be from a dry source anyway, and any real effects would only be felt on the eastern, and mainly northeastern side, only conflict with an advancing front from the west would give any snowfall worth mentioning on that side and there's nothing to suggest that happening at all with a huge block sitting there
ukmo shows a scenario which would lead to temps of around 6-8c across most of England by next Monday. This is the scenario I favour. Temps will of course drop in any heavy showers, but that's not basis for any sort of extreme weather forecast.
To summarise Matt, you are posting yet more sensationalist bull0 -
Matty i'll tell you something..
Just because your an annoyance you'll never bother me.
Your quite simply a prat who has joined here to toss
me about. I have had enough of it and i really dont care
what you say or do
I have tried long and hard to befriend you,
I have been nice and welcoming but you have given me
nothing but abuse and well, im sick of it :rolleyes:0 -
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DMC wrote:TBH, I think you have upset enough people here with your attitude here, weathercheck. Very mature of you.
Indeed. DMC
As for picking on you Matt or whatever it is you think? I'm just pointing out what a twit you are making of yourself as usual.
Only one prat here mate and it's you with the rubbish, scaremongering tripe you post regarding winter weather0 -
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A weather related post to those kind and nice people who
are reading
From the 12z outputs its looking very good for a proper cold
spell from the weekend. It all hinges on a block forming
to our west and this is now coming into the crucial
96hr period, after this we need LP to dive south this
is well supported also. From the 12z outputs we have
postives from the GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, DWD and
only small negatives from the GEM and UKMO. UKMO
will fall in line i feel. Its looking like the weekend will
be cool and transitional before much colder weather
pushes down from the north After that winds are
expected to veer Easterly and the cold spell to continue
for some days. Eastern and Northern areas at this early stage would
be best favoured for appreciable snow but its very
early to predict precipitation at this stage.
So all in all its likely that were heading into the coldest period
of the winter and probably of the last few years.
Should be a shock to the country as Spring would
have seemed to have had blossomed over the last week! 0 -
Sorry DMC i dont quite understandDMC wrote:TBH, I think you have upset enough people here with your attitude here, weathercheck. Very mature of you.
All i know is i offer my services and do my best.
I have had my failers of late but i dont mean too
I'll always offer what i see and i'll grow from past
experience, but what i see coming in the next few
weeks is something very wintery.
Cheers 0 -
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Weathercheck wrote:Better signs again at the exchanges on the 18z
I'll also ask people who think im not wanted around here
to send me a PM so you can spare me the trouble of posting
Diddums. Blimey Matt. Everyones not out to get you, you know.
18z is better in that it brings the colder air in quicker. By late Saturday for most of the UK.
If the ukmo backs this up tomorrow then things will be looking ok-ish. at the moment it's not worth getting remotely excited about0 -
Matty H wrote:
To summarise Matt, you are posting yet more sensationalist bull
As is so often the case, the truth hurts...
And as for my view, I find weatherchecks forecasts entertaining, I can come in here, from the real world, dream a bit...........well actually a lot, and then return to real world,
I'm learning things as well, such as how 70% really means 0%......
Oh the real world is beckoning again, sure we'll get a cold spell, but nothing exceptional. I had -5C in March last year, don't see that being bettered next week, parhaps a few normal air frosts, and a few flakes of snow? that's kind of normal as well even if its not every year,
Keep up the entertainment though, tis good for the soul 0 -
So lets get it straight ... Im your entertainment :eek:
Well i'll take it
18z very good goes for nice and cold from later Saturday
with some nice features thrown in for some snow in the
east. It would be very harsh now if this went tits up
Sorry Matty H but i think you understand what im getting at
And Mothman sadly what you describe as normal winter is no longer
but thats the type of weather we'd get with the odd prolonges spell
of snow. Icy day with snow shower and hard frosts by night.
If all goes well this will last for 5 days or more, not the usual 24hrs
which we have been getting this year 0 -
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Considered yourself bannedMatty H wrote:Indeed. DMC
As for picking on you Matt or whatever it is you think? I'm just pointing out what a twit you are making of yourself as usual.
Only one prat here mate and it's you with the rubbish, scaremongering tripe you post regarding winter weather
15 posts in and attacking a user.
I'm sick of it in this forum I'm gonna start clamping down on personal attacks.0 -
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Weathercheck wrote:
And Mothman sadly what you describe as normal winter is no longer
but thats the type of weather we'd get with the odd prolonges spell
of snow. Icy day with snow shower and hard frosts by night.
If all goes well this will last for 5 days or more, not the usual 24hrs
which we have been getting this year
Yes I should clarify what I meant by normal, and that's the winters of the last 15 years or so, but during most of these recent winters cold spells such as the one next week usually do occur. Some examples in reverse order.
2003-2004
Feb 25th- Mar 3rd, 8 days, mean 2.9C
Jan 25th- Jan 29th 5 days mean 3.1C
Dec 27th-30th 4 days mean 3.0C
2002-2003
Feb 13th-18th 6 days mean 2.9C
2001-2002
none
2000-2001
Feb 24th-Mar 5th 10 days mean 2.1C
Jan 13th - 20th 8 days mean 3.0C
Dec 25-30th 6 days mean 1.8C
1999-2000
none.
I'll agree that none of the above are exceptionally cold, and I'm sure there must be plenty examples from the 80s that are colder, though the winter (Dec -Feb) of 00-01 was colder than average, as was Mar 01
And for others, bear in mind that long term winter average temp (1961-1990) is an estimated 5.8-6C with me.
Dublin Airport 5.3C
Rosslare 6.3C
So Weathercheck to keep this on topic are you saying that this coming "cold spell" is going to be significantly colder than the examples I've given?? 0 -
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No i doubt it Angus but it may well be the most interesting
On second glance i presume its the mean, not the maxima
mean? If not then i do think this cold spell will beat a good
few there. 5-8days with maxima around 2-4c and minima around -3 - -5c
With the wind from the east there will be more snow about
and it will feel bitter. We now have great agreement between
most models for a cold spell. ECMWF and GFS paint the most
unsettled period with UKMO going for more settled
What looks like being so amazing is the possible length of the cold
snap with the majority of runs keeping it going for 10days!
Although that will no doubt change.
This cold spell offers us one thing and that is some real winter weather
which we havent had this winter. Cold northerly winds will move south
later on Saturday and much colder northeasterlies as we move into
next week with snow showers drapping northern and eastern coasts
Not to mention hard frosts and possible widespread snow events
What is a good sign is that the onset of the colder weather seems
to have been moved forward to Saturday.
Were nearly there folks just 2 or 3 more fences to jump 0 -
for a change you might have luck on your side if its a cold snowy spell you want.Weathercheck wrote:Were nearly there folks just 2 or 3 more fences to jump
Last nights forecast on BBC radio 4 after the midnight news by Alex Deakon (I think) spoke of this week being a temporary mild interlude and cold northerlys returning by Saturday.
They *must* have a level of confidence for that to be said on monday night.
Of course they wont allude as quickly to possible Easterlies after that or the length of a cold spell after that as there are too many variables this far out.
Models are looking better for that prospect though than the last tiem :eek:0 -
Weathercheck wrote:Matty i'll tell you something..
Just because your an annoyance you'll never bother me.
Your quite simply a prat who has joined here to toss
me about. I have had enough of it and i really dont care
what you say or do
I have tried long and hard to befriend you,
I have been nice and welcoming but you have given me
nothing but abuse and well, im sick of it :rolleyes:
This post is unacceptable here.
You must learn to bite your lip regarding what is only constructive criticism, you have been warned before and consider this your final warning.
Any further disregard for the moderation on this board will result in a ban for you.
It can't be any simpler than that.
Stick to discussing the weather content of posts here and that goes for everybody and we can all get along fine 0 -
I understand Earthman, but my lip was nearly bleading,
much thanks for giving me a chance tho
Its looking very interesting for a definate cold spell now
O.K we can get the details straight nearer the time but
for the moment we have the likes of a 5 day + cold
spell with light snow showers affecting the north and east.
That could become a give later today not to mention the
endless possibilities of something more spectacular.
Looking good now only 2 fences now with the horse in fine fettle
Whats more Earthman is the situation currently unfolding is a dream
for the eastern half of Ireland
Anyway of locking this thread and opening a new one
so we can forget this mess?0 -
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One for the doubters
http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rtavn1441.gif
Cold spell arrives as early as late Friday and in the 96hr range
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn961.html
Widespread snow on Monday if this chart was proved
correct :eek:
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1323.html
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1321.html
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn964.html
O.K i think its time to get excited :eek:
Worst cold spell of the winter ahead...though it wouldnt
be that hard to be would it!?
Looking like something sapecial from the weekend perhaps
a 1 in 5 year event or even rarer
Forgot to add the above is POSSIBLE 0 -
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Sh she shake it shake shake it up :eek: :eek: :eek:
Here we go guys this is the crap
Getting my eld pops to buy some anti-freeze, sleigh,
lots of turf, oil and gas :eek:
Cast your eyes on the DWD :eek:
http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/gme_cl_EU/m/xl/200502151200_120.gif
http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/gme_cl_EU/m/xl/200502151200_144.gif
http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/gme_cl_EU/m/xl/200502151200_168.gif
O.K O.K Ramp Mode Breached....Weathercheck overload 0 -
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Hi Longfield im afraid the spell is in the highest resolution
the models come
A few things to note from your post the setup shown would
deliver snow if there was precipitation from Sunday in Dublin
and lots of it at that.
Lots of time to go but this is more than your average cold snap
with sleet, prospects for something to last for more than 5 days
with snow showers from Sunday in the east with a disturbance
beginning to be picked up on Monday which would lead to
widepsread snow. Im not saying that will happen but thats how its looking.
if the synoptics shown were to deliver sleet i'd seriously question
my ability to interperate models. The charts shown are sensational,
too good to be true infact and if you nit pick at charts like
them you'll never be pleased 0 -
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And by the way just a question, whatever happened to this weeks mild weather?
It just never arrived did it!
As for next week Saturday and Sunday are the transitional days and i
would only expect wintry showers on Saturday before snow showers
begin to move into the north and east through Sunday
Monday onward are when the cold stream has settled and ready
to give us some proper winter weather. BTW eyes on late Sunday
for a possible snow event
Although detail is hard to pin down at the moment 0 -
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Thats what you think and your more than valid an opinion,
but i disagree.
I honestly dont think the current charts could be much better
and if you dont think their good you wont think many charts
are good for the next few years.
You know how feel so i'll leave the rest of my chit chat for
tomorrow and on
With the current charts snow would settle at sea level with
dam readings of around 520 in the south for around
5 or more days with 850hpa temps below -5c
this would 98% of the time mean that any precipitation
would fall as snow 0 -
This is it folks
Were on the verge of the coldest spell of weather in a very long
time( possibly a decade..no joke) from Saturday cold air will start sliding south across the country and wont leave for more than week. Current indications suggest that the cold spell could last for over 10 days :eek:
This will bring the country into madness at times because so far
this year we've hardly seen a 2 day cold spell
The cold spell coming up is a true cold spell out of the 80's textbook.
Northerly winds will bring down biting winds on Saturday before they
gradually turn northeasterly and then easterly as move from Sunday
into Monday.
Daytime maxima will range from 2-5c for over a week with
nightime temperatures dipping to around -5 or -6c on
snow fields.
Most snowfall will occur on eastern coasts as the winds turn
northeasterly from Sunday into Monday. Light to moderate
snow showers will move onto the east coast bringing steady
accumalations through the day. Periods of snow are possible
at times and one that may bring widespread snow is a feature
on Sunday night.
There is excellant agreement almost total agreement of the above
coming off and a cold spell longer than 7 days is the likely
outcome.
This will be the winter's hardest hit this winter and with Eastern
areas at the grip of its worst at times it will be hard. By
Thursday no doubt the first Headlines will reach the papers
but i've given you plenty of warning. Icy roads with snow and
frost will come a day to day problem from the weekend as
Ireland dives into the grip of a bitter freeze
new thread coming up when i have the nod 0 -
Charts coming off the press this morning havent been
seen for such a long time. the below is just one example
of what is almost total agreement this morning
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif
:eek:
Eeerily similar to the great charts i dream about from the 80's
and before :eek: 0 -
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Weathercheck wrote:Charts coming off the press this morning havent been
seen for such a long time. the below is just one example
of what is almost total agreement this morning
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif
:eek:
Eeerily similar to the great charts i dream about from the 80's
and before :eek:
its a little far away to be quite honest. I would gues that iif such a chart were to happen it would be more of a really hard frost or even Icy rather than a blizard. but that is my opinion.
I must point out that all the charts that I know are predicting some sort of fan out cold spell, whether it brings snow or not remains to be seen.
an example of some of the crazy charts these models churn out from time to time is this one now that would be nice, but it aint going to happen i
now back from cloud nine for a second. Heres one for ssunday night/monday morning but cold air is no good without precipitation.0 -
billy the squid wrote:its a little far away to be quite honest. I would gues that iif such a chart were to happen it would be more of a really hard frost or even Icy rather than a blizard. but that is my opinion.
I must point out that all the charts that I know are predicting some sort of fan out cold spell, whether it brings snow or not remains to be seen.
Well theres a couple of things to consider here and I'll deal with them individually.
1.Source of the air:Northerly at first=showers possibly on the west coast, though that would be tempered by barometric pressure being higher there but definitely showers in the North.
East wind: showers in the East, heaviest there and if heavy enough they penetrate into the midlands and some get through to the west.
Now cold air over the warm sea does usually cause showers to develop but the air must be cold enough.
Temps of 2 3 or 4 c at ground would tend snow to sleet regardless of 850hpa temps.
We've seen enough examples of that already.
There is plenty of potential for snow cover in the East if the temp is low enough,I'm not convinced yet that the source of any easterly if it develops as per these models( and thats not yet a given) will be cold enough to produce more than hill snow here.
It's all up in the air literally at the moment
2. Cold versus mild battle-althought theres no guarantee or definitive signs of that either, if you get an atlantic system caught up in a cold easterly you have the potential for gigantic amounts of snow.
Eastern and northern areas would fare best in that scenario.
I've seen it happen maybe four or five times though only in my life time and it is amazing when it does-depending on the strength of the system it can be a total white out.
1982 being the obvious best example of that.
But all this is just speculation, I wont be confident of what I think may happen untill friday but then thats me, I have seen enough of this to know at this stage that Nature doesnt always follow models in the way we like to think it does.0 -
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Welll Jasus i cant take this i need music to calm myself down or
hype myself up :eek:
6z is truely sensational and from Sunday Ireland and the Uk could
be facing one of those very very rare events. Dont worry
about it being to warm for snow, honestly if the synoptics come
off which there is 90% agreement of more we will see snow.
it will be one of those events you dream about as a child or
perhaps even worse, charts trickling out over the last few days
have just been absolutely corking
brief rundown on the sceal..
Early Saturday Slack but cool northerly flow develops
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn721.gif
Early Sunday very cold air starts to filter south
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn961.gif
Early Monday the true effects of the cold begin a bitter
easterly flow develops throwing snow showers and more
onto eastern coasts
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1201.gif
Tuesday the flow is now truely established and our
weather pattern flips into crazy mode.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif
Wednesday continues with a bitter easterly flow
with the cold really settling and weird happenings
bringing low pressures travelling the wrong way and
possible major snowfalls not on this chart tho.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1681.gif
After this the severe cold blast continues for loads
longer but why look into FI when you have the charts
above getting into reliable timeframe.
My Favorite chart showing true Siberian cold ready
to arrive http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1742.gif
Daytime maxima struggling to 3 or 4 by day and
down to -4c or so by night...
bring on WInter :eek:
And possibly our worst cold spell in a decade :eek: 0 -
OK a FI chart showing the cold weather lasting for
weeks :eek:
http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rtavn3721.gif
Earthman im calling this one today
Agreement is really astonishing at the moment so
all i really think this one is the ONE 0 -
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