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Current Weather indications
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24-11-2004 12:11am#1Just To tell you all interesting signs towards cold
weather next week will post more on my site tomorrow.
Currently it looks like a Cool Spell at the weekend
with HeavyRain Hail and Sleet showers driven in
on a Fresh Northwest Wind after that Look
East
Nothing is at all certain.. I'll Know more tomorrow 0
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Thanks Earthman But I aint predicting
snow this weekend just to let you all know
I am though predicting a cool fresh weekend
with some wintry showers countrywide
on Sunday and Monday. A Very Active
Cold Front will push south on Saturday with
a steep temperature gradient and heavy rain
introducing much cooler conditions.
Then Things are expected to stay on the cool
side until about December 4th and then
Its upto the Gods 0 -
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Hi All My Winter Forecast is now available:
Please Comment on it in the Thread
Available here alsoWinter Forecast 2004-2005
Official Weathercheck Winter Forecast 2005
Overall the period of December through February looks like being about 2c above average. The Bartlett High will be overly persistent and will result in a very disappointing winter period with few cold wintry periods. It will be a non-descript winter with very mild conditions and also various stormy periods. Cold Spells will be very limited infact they will be limited to 3 or 4 short periods. Very settled interludes will also be prevalent with the ever near European High Pressure.
Notable Periods:
* 25th - 02nd January - Possibly the only wintry period of the winter with widespread snow for a number of areas and hard frosts. The cold spell which will be brought on by Northerly Winds and will last no more than 5 days.
* Mid January - Storm Possibilities as a strong jet introduces very unstable westerly winds, Expect Stormy weather around this period.
* January 17th -23rd - This could well be the last cold spell of the winter, Northerly winds will affect all areas for 3-4 Days with widespread snow possible but certainly not assured.
* February - The dreaded Bartlett High Returns late January to ensure a mild but settled February period.
How are our Forecasts Made?
Weathercheck use various sources when providing their winter forecast. Firstly for the short term we use GFS Ensembles, this gives a rough idea what is likely to happen over the first 20 days of the forecast. In the Medium term we peak at Meto and NCEP outputs to see what the consensus is, we also take into account the NAO which we expect to be neutral this year. But Weathercheck mainly use one specific source and that is the GSM or ECPC Experimental Forecast Model. Weathercheck feel satisfied that this model scores a 60% success rate in Forecasting out to 8 Weeks and a 50% Success rate in Forecasting out to 16 Weeks. This gives us a virtual chance to look into the future and over the coming years the accuracy of this model is expected to grow.
Monthly Rundown:
December: CET near Average (+0.5c)
A Month of various divisions. Cold Settled weather to begin the month will be displaced by rather unsettled weather by around December 5th. Mild, Wet and Windy weather will be dominate with stormy weather for the north possible around December 8th -10th. A cooler unsettled period around December 13th will result in possible wintry showers over Scotland. More Unsettled and mild conditions will move in soon after bringing heavy rain and strong winds. Cooler weather will return for a time with possible wintry showers for the north before more mild and wet weather arrives around December 18th. Much more settled weather will arrive around the Christmas Period (21st December) and will bring with it frosty and cold weather until around Christmas Day when Much Colder weather conditions will move down from the north bringing the highest possibility of widespread snow this winter. Things will be at there height around December 27th with widespread snow is more than possible. Blizzards will be possible as a deep artic plunge sweeps the country for a few days. Things will settle down towards and into the New Year Bringing much more Settled but Frosty Weather.
January: CET Well above average (+1.5c)
Extremely Cold weather will notably push through central Europe as Britain turns more settled and much less cold as the Atlantic Jet stream steams into action. Mild and much more unsettled weather will push in by January 3rd or 4th bringing windy and very wet conditions to all. The mild weather will not end there and around January 10th Weathercheck are watching the possibility of a very stormy period with possible structural damage due to a very wild Atlantic. Not to mention the ever growing Bartlett High which is expected to be manifesting over Europe. But this will soon be displaced a Strong Northerly Block forms allowing colder weather to move south around January 15th. Snow showers will affect Northern and Western areas as a short northerly blast sets into Britain. By January 18th Unsettled and wet weather will again rage in from the Atlantic bringing strong gales and heavy rain. A short settled spell around the 22nd will be again replaced by much milder, wet and windy weather late in the month. Meanwhile the Bartlett High will raging calm over Europe as Central Europe basks in Glorious winter weather but as Eastern Europe freezes.
February: CET (+2.5c)
The Month of the Bartlett High! A predominately settled and mild month with few if any cold spells. A strong European High to begin the month will drag up very mild and wet weather from the South-West
Bringing heavy bands of rain and unseasonal temperatures possibly in their mid teens! Some cooler weather will move in for a time before more settled weather pushes in around February 10th bringing more settled and possibly frosty weather. Around February 12th there is the possibility of some colder weather making an appearance for a time, with the possibility of snow showers for a few places. The High Pressure will retrogress back into Europe by Mid February pumping up more mild, moist and windy weather. Rainfall totals are expected to be very high across the North and West but below average in the Southeast. Cooler weather will push in for a time with squally wintry showers and strong west-northwest winds likely around February 24th. A Milder and much more unsettled westerly regime will return again by late month with more rain and winds. By the very end of the month colder weather may push down from the north bringing some more wintry weather.
Conclusion
An above average winter season with the Atlantic Jet remaining strong for prolonged periods. The dominance of a European High Pressure and strong Jet will prevent any particularly cold weather from affecting the UK and Ireland for any prolonged periods. Any cold weather will be limited to short spells of no more than 5 days. Eastern and South-eastern Europe can expect a very cold winter with prolonged freezing conditions. Greece again will suffer freakish weather conditions. Although the winter will be very mild overall, short spells of severe cold weather will of course affect Ireland at times, possibly bringing widespread snow. Nonetheless Weathercheck do not expect any prolonged spells of cold to affect the UK at any time. December will be the coldest month with severe cold likely to last for 5 days at the end of the month which will ensure that December will turn out average or just above (temperature wise). January will be a mixed month with short cold spells likely, Settled spells and also prolonged mild and unsettled weather. February is expected to be exceptionally mild with the dominance of a large area of High Pressure over Mainland Europe ensuring mild and moist weather for the UK and Ireland.
Note:
The Forecast is Likely to be incorrect at intervals but we expect the outline forecast to be pretty accurate. Remember things may well change and so we promise that we will tell you of any possible changes to the Forecast.
Winter Forecast 2004-20050 -
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Early Signs are indicating at a cold Christmas Period
Signs are appearing that a strong atlantic Block
will feed down very cold air around Christmas
Very early as of yet but the chances of a white
Christmas are growing by the day
I told you first 0 -
People i think you should start getting interested in this
Ever dreamt of a white Christmas??
Well really things are shaping up excellantly
for the Christmas period with at least 1 or 2
cold spells with snow possibilities to come in
and around the fesitivities
I'll update you later with some charts from
whats set to be a spectacular 12z run
Watch out around the 20-25th of December things
are set to be very interesting indeed
The average line of all runs is marked in black and
the ed line is the run available to the public
And also even before that around December 17th
a sharp cold spell is possible!
Heres a chart showing upper air temperatures
Notice the averagesn tumble. Values of around
-5c in this data gives the possiblity of snow
to low level, This chart shows the 12 GFS model
runs at 6z or 1300pm Today
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Massive Cold Shot set to dig south in time for the Festivities..
As we approach Christmas Week and the Weekend a drastic drop
in temperature will take place. Already we are seeing 850hpa Slowly
dropping away at the moment they are at +5c but by the Weekend
they will have nose dived to -5c!
The First Cold shot will arrive this Saturday bringing a drastic drop
in temperature than we have seen of late. At the moment eyes are
firmly fixed on Saturday when a secondary low pressure spins of an
unstable and cold northwesterly airflow as this interacts with
the cold air, wintry precipiatation is possible north of the Midlands
and Snowfall above 500m looks likely!
The unstable air will move away by Sunday to leave a cold frosty
and Bright day, Monday is set to continue that trend.
A short milder section is likely through Tuesday before
another cold shot is likely by Wednesday and into Thursday.
By this stage it should be cold enough for wintry showers
nationwide.
Another milder shot will push in on Thursday to bring wet and mild
conditions.
By Midday Friday much colder weather will build to the north and
through Saturday, yes Christmas Day!! This will swing south and a strong
and gale force North, Nortwesterly wind will develop with blustery and
possibly prolonges sleet and snow showers for many parts by
Stephens Day this theme is set to continue but by the 27th things
look like settling down but staying cold and frosty!!
Overall the liklihood of a White Christmas is amazingly high!!
I as an amateur meteorologist would put the risk for the
following locations at:
Belfast: 70%
Derry: 70%
Knock: 70%
Kerry: 40%
Cork: 30%
Athlone: 60%
Rosslare: 40%
Dublin: 50 - 55%
Overall an amazingly high likelihood of a white Christmas.
Im putting my bet on a white Christmas tonight at 6-1 as
its a fantastic price. Remember a white Christmas is deemed
as a flake of snow being recorded at a particular official
weather station that you have predicted it to fall in 0 -
White Christmas still firmly ON!!
I've put my 10 Euro on with 3 on Dublin
3 on 1 inch at Dublin at 12-1!! a steal!!!
Looking at the latest Model runs Blizzards
could be widspread this Christmas and visiting
those relatives may not be possible!!
Stay upto date you might just wake up on the 25th
with a your childhood dream outside!!
Imagine big 4 feet drifts of snow with a blizzards,
thats what would happen if a chart like this occured!!
Also Great Patterns are now emerging that an Easterly Blast
like the one from the 80's might be possible early in the new-year,
notice the mass of High to the top right of that chart. That is called
a Siberian High and it was the cause of many major Cold Winters!!
I really am just reading the Models and yes they are
totally unbelievable!!!0 -
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Hi Dapper, i just had to post that link becuase i cant
post that image I actually am not intending to
promote my site just like telling all the Boards viewers
what the story is
And yes this Christmas is looking very interesting
and those percentages are very true!!
I'll try not to go out on a limb as much
and thanks Dapper 0 -
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Hi Gonzo yes its quite cold outside now with 850hpa Temps reaching
-5c across the north, there is a small possibilty (30%) that a front
tomorrow as it hits cold air may turn to snow across the midlands.
Ground above 500m have a much better probability probably near
50%.
As for Christmas, things are still going to plan with a sharp northerly
plunge expected to arrive on Christmas eve and if things stay
the same it will deliver blizzards in many locations come the big
day...talk about timing!!!
Talk about the chart of childrens dreams!!
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What you doing down that way!!
I used to live around there when i was young
in Slovakia, Bratislavia we made trips to Budapest
and Vienna regularly that was in 94 though when
things were soo cheap it was amazing.
To buy an icecream in the park 2p, when
buying chewing gum the poor souls sold them
singly!!! When we lived there we were viewed
as millionaires!!!..im afraid were not though!...0 -
I thought a few charts might quench the doubters!!!
Christmas Morning
Afternoon
Oh ye also forgot to mention the snow arrives on Christmas eve Morning!!!
And if you think that run is out on its own!!
Amazingly at such range the runs are merged
Although the 850hpa temps are not excpetionally Low the
The 500/1000 gpdam is easily low enough for snow usually
snow can fall at 528dam and with values of around
520dam predicted in Dublin this situation really
is looking extrodinarly sweet!!! 0 -
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That's only because you have money on it.Weathercheck wrote:Although the 850hpa temps are not excpetionally Low the 500/1000 gpdam is easily low enough for snow usually
snow can fall at 528dam and with values of around
520dam predicted in Dublin this situation really
is looking extrodinarly sweet!!! but would be nice all the same 0 -
Weathercheck wrote:What you doing down that way!!
Ah...just wandering around.
The predicted snow didnt materialise here today with temps up around 6c(so last nights disappeared quickly today) but there was some down near the hungarian border and enough for me to be pelted with snowballs last night 0 -
Christmas Week Forecast..........Cold!!
O.K I thought for the good of boards i'd give a pretty detailed
rundown on the weeks weather Before i begin. The weather this week
is set to be very mixed milder and very windy weather will arrive midweek
before much colder and possibly snowy weather around Christmas eve
and Christmas day. All I'll say is that your childhood dreams have a very
high possibility of coming off!
The Week Ahead
Monday:
Rain will arrive in the west by 6am and quickly sweep east introducing
slightly milder weather. The rain may turn to sleet or wet snow in places
across the north and east for a time especially in mountanous areas.
Showery and cool weather will arrive in the west in the wake of the
rainband. Temperatures will begin below freezing in the north and east
but will rise as the rainband moves through. Temperatures will range
between 6-9c by late afternoon.
Tuesday:
Any showers will dy out by Tuesday morning and it will feel quite cold
with perhaps a slight frost in the midlands to begin. It will be a bright, cool day in most areas with the odd shower in the far northeast. Temepratures will remain on the cold side with maxima between 5c in the midlands to 8c in the
far southwest. Heavy rain will arrive in the northwest by evening and move
across the country during the night. The rain will be very heavy in places
with perhaps some localised flooding and waterlogging.
Wednesday:
Heavy rain will slip east and turn persistant and heavy. It will feel noticeably
milder with temperatures widely reaching double figures. It will be very
breezy in the west with perhaps localised gales. By late afternoon the rain
will slowly move away from the east and it will turn dryer for a time. But
drizzle and fog will set in towards dusk.
Thursday:
Very wet and very windy weather will push into the northwest and
move southeast. Severe gales are likely in places with gusts in excess
of 70mph likely in exposed areas. The glaes and heavy rain will
make it feel very cold but temperatures are likely to reach double figures
at times. The far north of Ulster can expect some severe weather as very
heavy rain and extremely high winds affect the area. The rain will rapidly
move east during the early afternoon and clear the east coast by mid afternoon. It will turn cooler from the west towards dark.
Friday:
Christmas Eve will be a day where almost every weather type will
affect Ireland! To begin a rainband will move south through early
morning introducing much cooler weather. The rain will very heavy
in many areas. By mid afternoon a small low pressure will form
on the strong northwesterly airstream and wrap very cold air
around it. The rainbands associated with the low will push
south through the afternoon and will turn to snow by evening
several cm's of snow will accumalate in higher areas although
lower level of the midlands, north and east can expect a
few centimetres by evening. Later in the evening a bitter
northwesterly airflow will develop bringing heavy snow showers
to many areas with local blizzard conditions especially across
the north and west where accumalations of more that 10cm's
are more than likely.
Christmas Day:
A very cold and unsettled day with temperatures peaking
in the southeast early in the day at around 3c. Bands
of heavy snow showers will transfer from north to south
delivering a White Christmas to the majority of Ireland.
Strong northwesterly winds will mean that blizzard
conditions are likely especially across High Ground. More than 10cm
of snow will ly in many areas with road conditions expected to
be extremely hazardous after the rain and snow from the previous
day will freeze over. Christmas night will be very cold with
temperatures down to -5c locally and with snow showers
still affecting the nrth and east.
After that:
Milder weather is likely to arrive by midday on Stephen's day and
a steady thaw will set in. Looking after that more
unsettled weather is likely with milder and colder periods
likely with strong atlantic blocking expected at times.
Hope you like that anyway !!! I know its sort of unbelievable
but the fact is that is what can be expected during the run up
to christmas and on Christmas day
I'd say Paddy Power will slash their odds on Monday
I'll give you more updates through the week on the
situation. The overally liklihood of a white Christmas
is around 60% 0 -
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Theres a sticky for links to weather forecasts, you can put your website link there but please don't be posting weekly or daily forcasts here, thats not what we are about.We talk about weather here not forcast it or present others forecasts unless we are talking about specefic weather events that are actually happening and why they are happening or in the case of predicted seasonal events where a forcast is being discussed thats to be done in the thread provided for it.Weathercheck wrote:I was just giving the weeks forecast
The fact that its going to be white really has
no bearing
The purpose of this is to prevent clutter.0 -
Afternoon all some more stonking runs!!!!
A white xmas is nearly certain for some part
of Ireland!!!
Were talking widspread bands of snow and possible blizzard
conditions into Christmas day!!!!
The timing is almost made for a fairytale!!
Cold air will dig south through Christmas eve
and get more intense. Bands of rain will move
south throughout the day steadily turning to
sleet and snow as we move into evening. By
Nightime a band of snow is expected to move south
delivering blizzard condtions to many!!
I expect in excess of 20cm to be on the ground in
the Northwest by Christmas morning and accumalations
in many other areas. Areas most unlikely to see
snow are the far south but even here it should be cold
enough for snow!!!
If you've ever seen a chart for Christmas day i bet you
cant remember seeing one like this!! It is almost
like a fairytale, someone wake me up im dreaming!!
I heard the radio yesterday and some guy saying there was
little chance of a white Christmas with the usual global warming
tripe oh how wrong he is probably going to be.
Ok open your eyes heres to the chart of dreams
and to a white Christmas
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Ah I dunno about that weathercheck...Areas most unlikely to see
snow are the far south but even here it should be cold
enough for snow!!!
Quite often with a feed of polar air from the north and northwest areas of the south and southwest see normal atlantic heavy shower activity which when cold enough falls as snow.This is what happened around Xmas 2000 when 5 or six inches fell in much of cork and kerry.
That sort of activity is usually at its weakest on the East coast with the wind in the Northwest.
I'd expect those places on the East coast by the seaside to be least at risk of much activity eg portmarnock 0 -
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Ye know thats probably right :eek:
!!
Usually Norht Dublin does alright with a Northwesterly
though due to the vast open lowlying North Midlands
Usually in this neck of the woods a north westerly is better
than a Norhtherly because showers have less chance of
dying out!!
Really though mate this setup is just amazing with some
complications like troughs and or polar lows likely
Looking at gpdam readings from the UKMO things are
set to be very interesting
Using the calculation here you can roughly work out the gpdam level
((1000mB - pressure mB)* 0.87) + (500mb Chart Dam reading) = GPDAM
In Dublin for example levels on Christmas eve
are 522 on Christmas day 517 and on Stephens day 522
There just outstanding with any precipitation surely of snow
and with the 500hpa pressure so dang low polar lows
are a real threat Remember the lucky -40c barrier
looks like being broken
Overall one word sums it up amazing!!
At 15 years old the only good snow i can remember was
Late FEB 01' with around 15cm of lying snow and chaos
in the city, this looks like it could be very similar or worse
And lets not forget this is all set to occur on CHRISTMAS DAY!!!!! :eek:
Oh god look at these will it snow predictions from Metcheck!!!
Dublin - http://www.metcheck.com/winter/willitsnow.asp?lat=53&lon=-6&locationID=297
Donegal -
http://www.metcheck.com/winter/willitsnow.asp?lat=55&lon=-8&locationID=296
Paddy get the shovel and stock up on the coal, its going to be a harsh
Christmas!!!!!0 -
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Its quite the opposite infact Gonzo unlike last year
when low Pressures were fixed to the east of Britain
in this upcoming cold spell the LP is fixed just to our north
and will bring in plenty of precitation for all parts. Infact
Eastern Britain will likely fair worst for snowfall on Christmas
day. We are talking on another board about it being the
West's turn to at last see some decent snowfall.
Im expecting copious amount of snow for Western areas
at least 20cm's for the 3 day period. Here in Dublin and Meath
we can expect quite a decent fall on Christmas day itself
with a band of snow expected to cross the country
Unlike last year the source of air is very moist indeed
for a cold airmass and will ensure plenty of snow showers
and lets not forget the possibility of something else forming
like a polar low!!
Just heard the forecast on the radio and the Met are
going for a White Christmas aswell as nearly all other
weather industries you just cant say it wont be when
you look at the charts!! 0 -
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Very true Earthman but i expect a trough to push south
through Christmas day Probably will die
out befoe it reaches the south coast though.
Also late Christmas eve theresa strong possiblility
of some heavy snow for many areas especially
those in the more northern areas as a trough
move south!! Overall this Christmas IS
going to be white at least in some weather station
in Ireland and probably in Dublin. Temperatures are
likely to struggle to around 2c on Xmas day and
St Stephens day and will drop to -3c especially
in the east. These type of temperatures together
with a gale force northwesterly wind will make it
fell spectacularly cold windchill temperatures
mightnd rise above -5c in some places!
Oh and not to brag but heres the date and time i predicted a
cold Christmas
06-12-2004, 18:17
Merry White Xmas!!
Northern and Western Areas should now prepare for blizzard
conditions and in excess of 20cm's of snow coupled with
drifting. Things could really turn hairy across the Donegal
Penninsula Come Late Christmas Day 0 -
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Did i metnion knee deep snow??
The highest i mentioned was 20cm for the north
and west
BBC and any of us dont know the exact detail
for Christmas day. Put it this way there hardly going
to pop on a trough of snow on that chart that there
not sure of comin off are they?
What they are sure of is what they will show
Northern and Western areas will be plaqued
by Heavy snow showers for certain now 0 -
But you keep telling us it's coming,what sort of puters do you have versus theirsWeathercheck wrote:BBC and any of us dont know the exact detail
for Christmas day. Put it this way there hardly going
to pop on a trough of snow on that chart that there
not sure of comin off are they?
if a trough moves south,It's going to be weak on the East coast too(theres no mention of any on the BBC forecast as yet)
I'd like to see daytime temperatures below 2 degree's aswell if I was to be confident of snow at sealevel.
I can tell you that based on experience rather than models.
General forecasts of 2 degree's at sealevel could mean snow on high ground inland ( where due to height the temp might be one or zero) but it doesn't guarantee snow on the coast where Dublin is.
It might happen but it's not a guarantee.
Now for snow lovers that was the positive bit.
However
Met Éireann are predicting temps in the range of 3-5 degrees for Xmas day that would restrict snow to Northern areas and high ground elsewhere.
Given that temps on wenesday and thursday are to be up to 12 degree's, the cold air plunge will have its work cut out to get them down to 2 degree's in Leinster.
I'd say 3 or 4 degree's would be more realistic to be honest and that aint in the range for blizzards and lying snow.
But then Mother nature is a wonderfull thing and can change her mind at any time.0 -
No Earthman No Thats incorrect !!!!!!!!!!
Its like god versus the devil..........im god!!
Latest UKMO runs show amazing cold over
Ireland and the east looks the coldest
gpdam on the Irish East Coast works out
from the UKMO to be 516 dam on 12z Christmas day!
Just a little bit of info gpdam readings of 520 translate
roughly to freezing at sea level so what does
516 make it??
I expect a trough to run south through Christmas Eve night
and most of Ireland to wake up to at least a dusting of
snow!!
Believe me or believe me not, public forecasts are hardly
going to predict event like this but a local english forecast
predicted exactly that a trough moving south through
the UK and Ireland deliver a white Christmas to most...
Some stonking chart to come below......enjoy and believe
Midday Xmas Eve 528dam line well clear of the south coast
and our white christmas arriving in north Scotland these
charts are what dreams are made of, i must add that
the cold spell is only likely to last 3 days.
Heres the 96hr chart for midday Christmas and its a fairytale chart:
Christmas will be white for 80% of Ireland...Earthman your turn!!0 -
Oh and not to brag but heres the date and time i predicted a cold Christmas
06-12-2004, 18:17
I'd love a white christmas as much as the average person, but this is unbelievable - it's like "The Day After Tomorrow" (a bit of an exageration)!
If it's not a white Christmas then Weathercheck need not show his face around here again :mad:
If it is a white Christmas - then Weathercheck is my hero! 0 -
Christmas is over and it was an official white Christmas nearly everywhere
but alot of places only recieved a few snow showers
Looking onward and upward it would seem late on Monday
and into Tuesday we will have another brief 24hr cold
snap, it shouldnt bring much but will bring another frost
and perhaps some mountain snow late Monday.
Looking further ahead there is a degree of agreement that
we will have another short 48hr cold snap around New Years
so that needs watching, enjoy your Turkey left overs and remember
the white Christmas of 2004 We have all gotten a taste of the snow
earlier than we usually would, we have two full months of real winter
ahead of us lets hope there good 0 -
Cold air is set to dig in later tonight, snow is possible in the north midlands
and Ulster aroound and after midnight Didnt think i'd be saying that
so soon after the previous cold snap
Cold air digs in http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn122.gif
Lots of precip about http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn124.gif
Gpdam readings below 528 http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn123.gif
Perhaps a surprise for many come morning
I still only expect sleety showers later but the charts show the
possibility for snow to low levels from 1201 am
Heres a modle interpretation at midnight Pinks indicate snow
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