Cold Spell - Feb 7th to 13th 2021 - Chat

Humberto Salazar · 02-02-2021 6:03am

Big ECM run incoming. Last two GFS runs were not good for exceptional cold. The low running up through eastern England choking off the supply of cold easterly winds and mixing in less cold air from southern Europe. Still could be
a milder outlier. Not determinable for the next 24 to 36 hrs.

JanuarySnowstor · 02-02-2021 7:03am

Even on the ukmo there is no Easterly just a southerly running jet dragging in very cold air into the mix.
So cold and high risk of snow but as I said last night no decent heights to our North means burger and chips rather than fillet steak as ( Nick Sussex ) would say lol

Snowbiee21 · 02-02-2021 7:54am

Further Outlook: Turning colder with northeast to east winds feeding in wintry showers at times and hard ground frosts can be expected at night.

Met.ie starting to change their outlook

02-02-2021 8:10am

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

I don't think we had any snow at all here in Wexford before Emma came along if I remember it correctly. That all changed completely the night of March 1st however.

Not worried about the 18z. If the other models came towards that conclusion then I would take notice. Parallel is fairly ****e too though tbf

On a direct easterly before Emma,south wexford was hit by streamers
North of there the north Wales shadow came in meaning not enough fetch for the showers
You need about 60kms of water for the cold wind to fetch enough warmer water to build showers ,the longer the fetch,the better
So to guess possible local conditions, look at the exact wind direction
A subtle change can make huge differences for that reason

02-02-2021 8:14am

Humberto Salazar wrote: »

Big ECM run incoming. Last two GFS runs were not good for exceptional cold. The low running up through eastern England choking off the supply of cold easterly winds and mixing in less cold air from southern Europe. Still could be
a milder outlier. Not determinable for the next 24 to 36 hrs.

ECMWF is a big choo choo All aboooooard ! -13 uppers approaching this day week

bazlers · 02-02-2021 8:32am

AuntySnow wrote: »

ECMWF is a big choo choo All aboooooard ! -13 uppers approaching this day week

Yea exactly a week away. Its like an indiana jones movie to get to the holy grail of those -13s. Traps and pitfalls on the way. But it sure is entertaining and ive bought the ticket : )

Gaoth Laidir · 02-02-2021 8:59am

https://twitter.com/SmithsonianEnv/status/1354432897781006337?s=19

bazlers · 02-02-2021 9:10am

Well il watch the Superbowl Sunday night with the curtain open Hopfully between the two of them there will be a little bit of entertainment :pac:

pauldry · 02-02-2021 10:58am

I think all Ill be looking at is frost.

Easterlies never bring nowt to Sligo

pistolpetes11 · 02-02-2021 11:05am

This will let you see how up in the air things are at the moment still

https://twitter.com/Schafernaker/status/1356525512345141248?s=20

screamer · 02-02-2021 12:13pm

I’ll believe it if I see it. I don’t have much faith in the models at all. Usually I love snow but this year, I’d love to see the end of winter weather and I’d take sunshine over snow. We shall see I guess.

pauldry · 02-02-2021 12:41pm

Its pretty easy predict the weather in Sligo... since last June bar a week or two it has rained every day even the cold ones so Id say rain next weekend again even if its -3c

Captain Snow · 02-02-2021 1:10pm

The storm coming out of America has thrown a spanner in the works.

We just have to wait and see how this evolves.

It has given the Jet a little Kick.

Id like to see it kick the trigger low in France.....

typhoony · 02-02-2021 1:17pm

The divergence happens in 5 days so I guess we may not see agreement until Wednesday evening, been watching models for 15 years and in all that time with this kind of scenario they haven't improved predictive at this range

Kermit.de.frog · 02-02-2021 2:15pm

Is there anything to be said for another Mass?

pad199207 · 02-02-2021 2:16pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Is there anything to be said for another Mass?

We’ve ran out of priests now at this stage

Gonzo · 02-02-2021 2:20pm

What can go wrong will go wrong. If we see the ECM fall back in line with the GFS later then we will just have to move on and hope something happens second half of February which is less than ideal.

pad199207 · 02-02-2021 2:21pm

Gonzo wrote: »

What can go wrong will go wrong. If we see the ECM fall back in line with the GFS later then we will just have to move on and hope something happens second half of February which is less than ideal.

Indeed. The 12z tonight probably the most important runs of the season so far for snowbies.

barney 20v · 02-02-2021 2:22pm

Gonzo wrote: »

What can go wrong will go wrong. If we see the ECM fall back in line with the GFS later then we will just have to move on and hope something happens second half of February which is less than ideal.

What will happen will happen. no point hoping either way!

munsterlegend · 02-02-2021 2:24pm

pad199207 wrote: »

Indeed. The 12z tonight probably the most important runs of the season so far for snowbies.

Until tomorrow’s ones.

Gonzo · 02-02-2021 2:24pm

pad199207 wrote: »

Indeed. The 12z tonight probably the most important runs of the season so far for snowbies.

I'm preparing for the ECM to fall back in line with the 12z. This happened 3 weeks ago. The GFS has been leading the trend for the entire winter up to this point and with 3 bad GFS run's in a row this is not looking good at all. The ECM is a fantastic model but it hasn't really followed trends well at all this winter.

02-02-2021 2:27pm

Gonzo wrote: »

I'm preparing for the ECM to fall back in line with the 12z. This happened 3 weeks ago. The GFS has been leading the trend for the entire winter up to this point and with 3 bad GFS run's in a row this is not looking good at all. The ECM is a fantastic model but it hasn't really followed trends well at all this winter.

I'm not expecting that
The GFS old model historically has difficulty with reverse zonal

SouthWesterly · 02-02-2021 2:30pm

Gonzo wrote: »

What can go wrong will go wrong. If we see the ECM fall back in line with the GFS later then we will just have to move on and hope something happens second half of February which is less than ideal.

I want dry and warm second half of February and the same in March

Gonzo · 02-02-2021 2:42pm

SouthWesterly wrote: »

I want dry and warm second half of February and the same in March

If we don't get this cold spell then this would be my next preferred choice. Anything to shut the Atlantic off. Flooding is becoming a real issue if this Atlantic onslaught continues into the Spring.

YanSno · 02-02-2021 2:45pm

I wouldn't get too hung up with current charts projected by some models. As mentioned previously by another poster that the LP exiting north east of the US will be key, if it moves further to the west it will budge the LP siting around Ireland & UK into Northern France. Confidence of that happening is high which I will rate 80%. We should get a clearer picture of the outlook tomorrow evening.

nacho libre · 02-02-2021 2:53pm

If we see Mogrep and ECM flip in the next couple of runs it will be a major coup by the GFS. It has had an annoying tendency to go its own way this winter and subsequently be proved right. I think we will have our answer by tomorrow morning at the latest, possibly tonight. As is so often the case, it could be a meeting in the middle, as oppose to one flipping to the other. A meeting in the middle will probably mean just more of the same for us.

Captain Snow · 02-02-2021 2:57pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Is there anything to be said for another Mass?

pistolpetes11 · 02-02-2021 3:10pm

nacho libre wrote: »

If we see Mogrep and ECM flip in the next couple of runs it will be a major coup by the GFS. It has had an annoying tendency to go its own way this winter and subsequently be proved right. I think we will have our answer by tomorrow morning at the latest, possibly tonight. As is so often the case, it could be a meeting in the middle, as oppose to one flipping to the other. A meeting in the middle will probably mean just more of the same for us.

Would this be reflected in its verifications stats this winter ?

Its so close to a decent cold spell but also so close to more of the same

Kunta Kinte · 02-02-2021 3:28pm

SouthWesterly wrote: »

I want dry and warm second half of February and the same in March

Odds of that happening in February are very low. If this potential cold spell doesn`t show up in the next few days then in all probability we will have more mild wet murky weather for the rest of the month.

pauldry · 02-02-2021 4:36pm

Itl be cold.....but in Eastern Europe

We will just get meh

Our whole climate is meh:(

nacho libre · 02-02-2021 5:45pm

It would appear any cold spell is likely to be short lived looking across most of the output. The ECM this evening is likely to be a lot more sobering than its last run.

pad199207 · 02-02-2021 5:46pm

nacho libre wrote: »

It would appear any cold spell is likely to be short lived looking across most of the output. The ECM this evening is likely to be a lot more sobering than its last run.

Yes. If the ECM tonight is similar to yesterday’s I will be flabbergasted

mcburns07 · 02-02-2021 5:48pm

Another one bites the dust, will we ever learn? :pac:

Villain · 02-02-2021 5:59pm

GEFS on the milder side of the mean on 12z and GEM is nice, don't go throwing this one out yet, unless of course it is just reverse psychology

Billcarson · 02-02-2021 6:05pm

mcburns07 wrote: »

Another one bites the dust, will we ever learn? :pac:

Whatever the outcome, its hardly going to be decided today.we should know our fate tomorrow or Thursday......

nacho libre · 02-02-2021 6:14pm

Come on ECM back the GEM so we can put the GFS in the naughty corner

lucernarian · 02-02-2021 7:33pm

nacho libre wrote: »

Come on ECM back the GEM so we can put the GFS in the naughty corner

So far ECM is backing the GEM horse on this evening's released run. Low pressure sinking slowly south past the south coast of England by Saturday evening.

Strangegravy · 02-02-2021 7:44pm

Just when I thought I was out, it sucks me back in again...

02-02-2021 8:04pm

Aunty Snow see's a BIG northeasterly FETCH in this chart next Monday
Lots and lots of snow,200kmh fetch for Arklow
Might need a lightning conducter?

(Won't post tuesday but it's even better)
No Question about the direction of travel here

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71704580-8794-420D-A75A-F4A65CC34307.jpeg.669f0a26b10ee4df4d6522e5f70c5c89.jpeg

Kermit.de.frog · 02-02-2021 8:08pm

Well, we can't move to "mittens" yet but I have seen enough to raise the alert level to "wooly hat" from Friday

Stay safe

Knine · 02-02-2021 9:14pm

My heating has broken down. Should I be worried?

smellyoldboot · 02-02-2021 9:20pm

We building this snow man or what?

highdef · 02-02-2021 9:31pm

Knine wrote: »

My heating has broken down. Should I be worried?

You're in the wrong section if you're looking for advice about your concerns over a faulty heating system. The people in this section of Boards will be able to answer your questions..... https://touch.boards.ie/forum/1320

Tzardine · 02-02-2021 9:31pm

*snow person

And I bloody hope so.

Knine · 02-02-2021 9:38pm

highdef wrote: »

You're in the wrong section if you're looking for advice about your concerns over a faulty heating system. The people in this section of Boards will be able to answer your questions..... https://touch.boards.ie/forum/1320

What I actually mean is should I be worried that we are going to freeze our behind's off this weekend!

But thank you

smellyoldboot · 02-02-2021 9:39pm

Tzardine wrote: »

*snow person

Not with the thing I'm going to build on him it won't be.

JCX BXC · 02-02-2021 9:45pm

Knine wrote: »

What I actually mean is should I be worried that we are going to freeze our behind's off this weekend!

But thank you

It's not going to be mild if that's what you're asking!

RobbingBandit · 02-02-2021 9:46pm

Do I need bread yet

Reckless Abandonment · 02-02-2021 9:47pm

RobbingBandit wrote: »

Do I need bread yet

We are at have a few slices in the freezer level for now.

RobbingBandit · 02-02-2021 9:49pm

I only eat Artisan sourdough philistine.

Cold Spell - Feb 7th to 13th 2021 - Chat

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