All Weather Winter Warmer

HarshOstrich · 08-01-2019 12:04pm

In the 5.15 Newcastle is dynamo Walt not a ridiculous price @ 28/1 he’s a hold up performer into stiff headwind tonight,finds loads for pressure and loads of pace on, I’m expecting a place at least.

Mostly Harmless · 08-01-2019 12:10pm

Far too many bets at Newcastle today:
4.45 Newcastle: Woodside Wonder (3/1 Generally) 2pts Win
5.15 Newcastle: Watchable (9/1 Generally) 1pt EW
6.15 Newcastle: Poppy In The Wind (11/2 Paddy paying 4 places 1/5) 1.5pts EW

Will get round to doing write ups at some stage this afternoon.

Mostly Harmless · 08-01-2019 12:13pm

HarshOstrich wrote: »

In the 5.15 Newcastle is dynamo Walt not a ridiculous price @ 28/1 he’s a hold up performer into stiff headwind tonight,finds loads for pressure and loads of pace on, I’m expecting a place at least.

Can definitely see the angle at the price, mark possibly slightly on the high side but certainly bit overpriced at 28s/33s. Have bet Watchable now though so will be leaving it myself, hopefully one or the other obliges!

Cherry_Cola · 08-01-2019 12:21pm

I'm on Atletico in the 5.15.

2ndcoming · 08-01-2019 1:53pm

Ah Woodside Wonder, chanced upon his massive journey taken to Kempton the last day and stuck a fiver e/w on at 40s, the rest as they say is history

:) lovely flukey little spot.

Edit: I see he's had a couple outings already since that one...

Mostly Harmless · 08-01-2019 2:19pm

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

4.45 Newcastle: Woodside Wonder (3/1 Generally) 2pts Win

Beaten little more than a length in a muddling race at Lingfield last time out when running off the same mark as today. This is officially one class higher than that contest, but that is in name only as nothing as highly rated as Ishan Queen or K Club in opposition today, so could well have a bit of a class edge over this lot. Is just about the only one in line up without some sort of questions to answer and should not be too much pace on early which will also help. Happy to oppose three main market rivals as Mardle looked to improve markedly last time but is debatable if can reproduce that same level of form off stiffish opening mark of 80; Zip never won a race and is now running in toughest race to date, failed to get job done at Southwell last twice despite being bred to be best suited by the fibresand; Seductive Moment beat absolutely nothing last time, form before that looks weak and easy to oppose under penalty today.

Mostly Harmless · 08-01-2019 2:31pm

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

5.15 Newcastle: Watchable (9/1 Generally) 1pt EW

Rated a good bit higher a couple of years ago and has shown that fair amount of ability remains on recent efforts. Travelled like the winner at Southwell last time when out battled close home by Moonraker. Ran a cracking race on most recent start at Newcastle (three runs ago) in similar race to today to finish 2nd, beaten half a length in a race that clearly favored the hold up horses, meets the winner of that race on 3lb better terms today but is a much bigger price for some reason. Competitive race but thought should be at least a point or two shorter and going to be very hard to keep out of the frame on recent form.

Mostly Harmless · 08-01-2019 2:41pm

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

6.15 Newcastle: Poppy In The Wind (11/2 Paddy paying 4 places 1/5) 1.5pts EW

Ran on well behind two of todays rivals on most recent run, crucially did not get a strong pace to aim at in that race, which is a prerequisite given her style of running. Much more pace in the line up today and a strong head wind to boot so really should be set up for a closer at the finish. Last time out was her most encouraging run for some time and is off a very workable mark on best of her form over last two years. (Was) some slightly bigger prices available but prefer the 11/10 to be in the first four as no guarantee that is going to get the gaps when needed – if she does then I think she could be very hard to beat if building on last run.

The Rooster · 08-01-2019 2:59pm

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

Far too many bets at Newcastle today:
4.45 Newcastle: Woodside Wonder (3/1 Generally) 2pts Win
5.15 Newcastle: Watchable (9/1 Generally) 1pt EW
6.15 Newcastle: Poppy In The Wind (11/2 Paddy paying 4 places 1/5) 1.5pts EW

Will get round to doing write ups at some stage this afternoon.

Without having looked at any other horse, I was already on Atletico at 10/1 (like Cherry Cola) in 5.15 just because of the jockey. Ignoring a 66/1 shot she was on recently, Katherine Begley has gone 1,2,1,1 and is still claiming 7.

My nap today is Another Angel 5/1 in the last. Beaten 5/4f last time when jockey left his run too late (still came home second). 1 pound lighter today and Cam Hardie won't make same mistake again (I hope

).

EDIT: Apologies, not the right thread for my selections. Won't happen again.

Mostly Harmless · 08-01-2019 3:26pm

The Rooster wrote: »

Without having looked at any other horse, I was already on Atletico at 10/1 (like Cherry Cola) in 5.15 just because of the jockey. Ignoring a 66/1 shot she was on recently, Katherine Begley has gone 1,2,1,1 and is still claiming 7.

My nap today is Another Angel 5/1 in the last. Beaten 5/4f last time when jockey left his run too late (still came home second). 1 pound lighter today and Cam Hardie won't make same mistake again (I hope ).

Her stats are very good but surely not sustainable, hard to know what Evans is playing at with Atletico, money suggests will be trying today but still above last AW winning mark when with Varian and got to be a possible that they are waiting for a more obvious opportunity off lower marks, not to say won't win but would not be for me. Liked Laubali in last for what it's worth but three bets is too many already at track I tend to not do very well at.

irish_major · 08-01-2019 3:43pm

2ndcoming wrote: »

Ah Woodside Wonder, chanced upon his massive journey taken to Kempton the last day and stuck a fiver e/w on at 40s, the rest as they say is history
:) lovely flukey little spot.

Edit: I see he's had a couple outings already since that one...

Oh FFS.

Will ye leave his thread alone rather than after-timing and putting yer own tips on it, start a different thread rather than cluttering this one!

2ndcoming · 08-01-2019 4:29pm

irish_major wrote: »

Oh FFS.

Will ye leave his thread alone rather than after-timing and putting yer own tips on it, start a different thread rather than cluttering this one!

Get over yourself snowflake, I spotted the horse's name and remembered a jammy moment, it was a month ago you tulip.

Where did I put my own tip up?

2ndcoming · 08-01-2019 4:33pm

Also 3 of the last 12 posts actually are people putting their own fancies up

Mostly Harmless · 08-01-2019 4:44pm

Would be easier if thread was kept a bit tidier from my point of view TBH, but not going to tell people what to do

BumperD · 08-01-2019 6:49pm

2ndcoming wrote: »

Get over yourself snowflake, I spotted the horse's name and remembered a jammy moment, it was a month ago you tulip.

Where did I put my own tip up?

After timing sticky is the 3rd listed on the forum, worth a read.

Think respecting MH wishes and leave this uncluttered is best, otherwise it will become a pain reading through waffle and gibberish, IMO

2ndcoming · 08-01-2019 6:57pm

BumperD wrote: »

After timing sticky is the 3rd listed on the forum, worth a read.

Think respecting MH wishes and leave this uncluttered is best, otherwise it will become a pain reading through waffle and gibberish, IMO

Commenting on someone's pick that day about a relatively long past success on the same horse is not what I would call after timing tbh. Coming in and saying I backed the winner in that race that day is after timing.

For what it's worth others putting up separate horses for the same races is far more derailing imo, followers end up with three tips for one race...

I know there are sensitive souls in here though, I just won't bother commenting in future.

Mostly Harmless · 08-01-2019 7:14pm

I am not particularly bothered, just when I am reading back can be a pain the rearend to have to wade through a load of posts to get back to what I am looking for, it's fine that people are contributing their thoughts and chipping in with opinions, that is basically the point of a public forum after all.

BUT... sticking up your own selections and write ups in this thread is a bit much especially when there are daily threads (that very few post in) for such stuff. Also aftertiming 40/1 winners is just wrong anywhere, anytime. But I am not a mod and do not want to tell people what to do, just use a bit of common sense.

Back on track now, hopefully Poppy In The Wind can rescure the day here!

STB. · 08-01-2019 7:15pm

Mostly Harmless. Didnt you put up Novabridge the last day ?

See its down in the 6.15!

STB. · 08-01-2019 7:39pm

Had a brief look at Newcastle and your fancies earlier MH. Newcastle isn't my favourite track as many horses simply hate it.

Couldn't help but notice that Richard Spencer's runs to winners ratio is 5/11! His horse in the next is White Iverson whose form figures are 888, which is plenty of fat ladies and probably why its 14/1. Same again in the 7.15 he has Morris on another outsider 20/1. I'll back none of them as Ed Walker's horses in both races are well backed. Suspect that PJ will win the second last anyway.

I had a look at the A/W cards earlier in the week and one that caught my eye was Perfect Soldier in the 7.15 at Kempton tomorrow. Top weight off 67 on second run for Keightley since leaving Michael O Callaghan. He was running off considerably higher in Ireland and was beaten 2/L off 78 at Wolverhampton on one of O Callaghan's raid missions just over a year ago. Priced up at 40/1

Unlucky with Navadir last night. Got to the front too soon. Looked the winner a good bit out.

Mostly Harmless · 08-01-2019 7:44pm

STB. wrote: »

Had a brief look at Newcastle and your fancies earlier MH. Newcastle isn't my favourite track as many horses simply hate it.

Couldn't help but notice that Richard Spencer's runs to winners ratio is 5/11! His horse in the next is White Iverson whose form figures are 888, which is plenty of fat ladies and probably why its 14/1. Same again in the 7.15 he has Morris on another outsider 20/1. I'll back none of them as Ed Walker's horses in both races are well backed. Suspect that PJ will win the second last anyway.

I had a look at the A/W cards earlier in the week and one that caught my eye was Perfect Soldier in the 7.15 at Kempton tomorrow. Top weight off 67 on second run for Keightley since leaving Michael O Callaghan. He was running off considerably higher in Ireland and was beaten 2/L off 78 at Wolverhampton on one of O Callaghan's raid missions just over a year ago. Priced up at 40/1

Unlucky with Navadir last night. Got to the front too soon. Looked the winner a good bit out.

Bet White Iveson last time at Southwell and ran awfully but might have needed it after being gelded, looks a massive price here at 20s+ now.

Perfect Soldier also a bet last time at Southwell, will be having a good look at that tomorrow, once getting on is a more realistic possibility.

Mostly Harmless · 08-01-2019 7:48pm

Crap day. Feel like Woodside Wonder was a bad bet in hindsight for all did not run too badly. Watchable somehow managed to fade out of the places after being up front for most of the race. Poppy In The Wind was never involved. Serves me right for punting so many at that kip.

-7pts on the day

Totals
Staked 162.50
Returned 214.30
P/L 51.80
ROI 31.88%

STB. · 08-01-2019 8:00pm

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

Perfect Soldier also a bet last time at Southwell, will be having a good look at that tomorrow, once getting on is a more realistic possibility.

The more I look at its form, top weight in a 55-67. Gavin Ashton was riding it the last day (you could tell me he is a virtual racing jockey and I wouldn't have corrected you) . That last A/W horse that beat it 2 lengths at Wolverhampton a year ago was a progressive 3 year old and is now rated late 80s. Keightley likes a gamble (Morning 33s Sp 22/1 last day out). Liam Jones on this time 50/1 with bet365. Will check for tell tale signs later.

Jan Van Hoof has semi decent form in the last at Newcastle!

Mostly Harmless · 09-01-2019 9:59am

Busy this morning, so getting these up unusually early.

3.05 Lingfield: First Link (20/1 365) 2pts EW
Best run to date was two starts back when 3rd in novice company over this trip at Kempton. Winner of that has gone on to win in handicap company off 67 and the 4th placed horse (over 2 lengths behind First Link in that race) has won both starts since off 59 and 65 (when running under 6lb penalty) so a fairly straight forward case can be made for this one off just 57 today if that form is taken literally. Not so good on most recent start over 7f but looks like is more suited to sprint trips based on keen going nature and looked very much a non stayer over a mile when trying to make all on second career start. Up against a field of relatively exposed sorts and could have a fair amount of improvement to come off this mark. Is some 4 places available but actually prefer the standard place terms for once and very hopeful of some marked improvement today.

7.15 Kempton: Cashel (12/1 Generally) 1.5pts EW
Looked to lose form when trained by Dascombe and put in an eye catching effort when 5th from a wide draw over same C&D as today on first start for Mick Appleby. Yard do well with these sorts and no surprise to see further improvement today off 2lb lower mark.

Mostly Harmless · 09-01-2019 4:14pm

First Link done well to finish as close as did in 5th after being given a lot to do and not getting a completely clear run in the straight, annoying but if every 20/1 bet goes off at 8/1 then things will be fine in the long term

CH3OH · 09-01-2019 8:26pm

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

Busy this morning, so getting these up unusually early
7.15 Kempton: Cashel (12/1 Generally) 1.5pts EW
Looked to lose form when trained by Dascombe and put in an eye catching effort when 5th from a wide draw over same C&D as today on first start for Mick Appleby. Yard do well with these sorts and no surprise to see further improvement today off 2lb lower mark.

Nice second at 16/1
Thanks

Mostly Harmless · 09-01-2019 8:26pm

Cashel flashed home again and bags place money at bigger price of 16/1.

-0.7pts on the day

Totals
Staked 169.50
Returned 220.60
P/L 51.10
ROI 30.15%

Mostly Harmless · 09-01-2019 8:36pm

Graph of running P/L after 90 bets, if pattern continues (and I doubt it will) then should be another jump up in the pipeline

Mostly Harmless · 10-01-2019 12:13pm

Today:
12.45 Southwell: Love Rat (9/2 Hills, BV) 1.5pts Win
1.20 Southwell: Classic Pursuit (15/2 Hills) 1pt EW
2.25 Southwell: The Right Choice (8/1 Boyles) 1pt Win
3.00 Southwell: Pearl Acclaim (13/2 Ladbrokes) 2pt Win
4.45 Chelmsford: African Showgirl (8/1 Generally) 1pt Win

Write ups to follow when I get some time.

Mostly Harmless · 10-01-2019 1:33pm

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

12.45 Southwell: Love Rat (9/2 Hills, BV) 1.5pts Win

Looked to have turned a bit of a corner when scraping home over C&D last time out. Well punted early doors there, so apparently not an unexpected improvement. Only a 3lb rise to deal with today, still well below opening handicap mark of 75 and not yet exposed at this distance. Thought should be near enough fav at around 3/1 to 7/2.

Mostly Harmless · 10-01-2019 1:44pm

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

1.20 Southwell: Classic Pursuit (15/2 Hills) 1pt EW

Got up on the line last time over C&D, that run was on back of a small break and should yet improve on that effort as generally needs a run when coming back from a break. Effective on the fibresand and decent record at the distance at Southwell. Close to a career high mark at age of 8 which is not typically a good thing but had looked as good as ever on turf during the summer and seemed a decent bet to be placed at a minimum with the eight runners lining up.

Mostly Harmless · 10-01-2019 2:14pm

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

2.25 Southwell: The Right Choice (8/1 Boyles) 1pt Win

Outran odds when placed at 16/1 last time and splitting some shorter priced opponents. Not convinced that truly stays much beyond sprint trips and still relatively unexposed on the fibresand. Form on turf suggests that will not need to improve too much to go close off this mark and thought was a point or two too big.

Mostly Harmless · 10-01-2019 2:19pm

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

3.00 Southwell: Pearl Acclaim (13/2 Ladbrokes) 2pt Win

Been running in better races than this and took step in right direction last time. Slight concern by trip of 6f as best form has been over shorter, but probably not a massive barrier to success in a very weak race. Drawn wide but rather be out there than against rails and risk getting trapped behind horses. Proven class edge against rest of the field and reproduction of run last time would possibly be good enough even.

Mostly Harmless · 10-01-2019 2:21pm

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

4.45 Chelmsford: African Showgirl (8/1 Generally) 1pt Win

Have bet this one at Southwell on more than one occasion, tendency to get behind early has prevented her from getting into races there, is not ideal here either but is less of a handicap. Be very surprised if Furtado cannot get a win out of her off a basement mark sooner or later and there is a lot of deadwood in here.

Mostly Harmless · 10-01-2019 2:21pm

Shorter write ups than usual as in a bit of a rush

akelly02 · 10-01-2019 3:32pm

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

Outran odds when placed at 16/1 last time and splitting some shorter priced opponents. Not convinced that truly stays much beyond sprint trips and still relatively unexposed on the fibresand. Form on turf suggests that will not need to improve too much to go close off this mark and thought was a point or two too big.

well done fella

Bigsliothar · 10-01-2019 4:05pm

Super picking

TheMilkyPirate · 10-01-2019 4:06pm

You're some boy, Great picks

IAMAMORON · 10-01-2019 4:14pm

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

Today:
12.45 Southwell: Love Rat (9/2 Hills, BV) 1.5pts Win
1.20 Southwell: Classic Pursuit (15/2 Hills) 1pt EW
2.25 Southwell: The Right Choice (8/1 Boyles) 1pt Win
3.00 Southwell: Pearl Acclaim (13/2 Ladbrokes) 2pt Win
4.45 Chelmsford: African Showgirl (8/1 Generally) 1pt Win

Write ups to follow when I get some time.

Great Picks. Good luck with the last. Nice one.

Mostly Harmless · 10-01-2019 7:16pm

Decent day with two winners, 10c R4 on Pearl Acclaim. African Showgirl just about the worst bet of the thread yet going off at around 40s on the exchange after having been backed at 8/1 this morning. Back moving in the right direction again.

+15.2pts on the day

Totals
Staked 177.00
Returned 243.30
P/L 66.30
ROI 37.46%

Mostly Harmless · 11-01-2019 12:04pm

8.00 Dundalk: Bellick (12/1 Ladbrokes, Paddy, Boyles) 2pts EW

Write up in a bit. Probably no other bets today.

Mostly Harmless · 12-01-2019 8:50pm

Forgot the write up sorry. Bellick ridden much more prominently than been case in past, looked to be in with every chance at top of straight but faded towards finish, did not get the clearest of runs but was already in trouble before that and likely does not stay the trip.

-4pts on the day

Staked 181.00
Returned 243.30
P/L 62.30
ROI 34.42%

Will have a rattle at Southwell tomorrow

Theonly way · 13-01-2019 7:06am

Hi MH.

Follow the AW with a passion .Thus my data and comments.

The southwell track :
Data + fav = 78% place
Best bias + adv= 5furlong drawn low.
Wind factor at that track because they use silica sand .I.e beach sand which shifts.

The jocks and others pay the guy who harrows that track.
Fact.

Theonly way · 13-01-2019 7:28am

Distance: 1000m
draw Wins SR% PL PL% number
1 146 17.1 378 44.3 853
2 116 13.4 347 40 868
3 101 11.7 328 38 864
4 124 14.3 328 37.7 870
5 78 9.3 257 30.5 843
6 82 10 282 34.3 821
7 65 8.6 211 28.1 752

Theonly way · 13-01-2019 7:37am

Chookie Dunedin .

Aurora1966 · 13-01-2019 11:18am

Theonly way wrote:

The jocks and others pay the guy who harrows that track. Fact.

Good news thanks for sharing.

Mostly Harmless · 13-01-2019 12:02pm

Don't want to be a bastard about this but I do want to keep this thread uncluttered and on track, so can everyone cop on and stop posting nonsense in here please.

Mostly Harmless · 13-01-2019 12:18pm

12.20 Southwell: Dolly Dupree(25/1 Ladbrokes, Boyles paying 4 places 1/5) 1.5pts EW
Best run to date on fibresand debut last time out when staying on well over a furlong shorter than today. Poets Voice progeny tend to go well on the surface so happy enough to believe that there was no fluke about that improved effort and extra distance today an obvious additional positive. That last race was of an incredibly low standard and this is definitely a good bit tougher but is better off with Bawtry Lady (4th in that race and subsequently ran well) today and 25/1 looks big about a potentially improving filly that is unexposed on the surface.

Mostly Harmless · 13-01-2019 12:24pm

2.50 Southwell: Thunder Buddy (9/2 Paddy, Boyles paying 4 places 1/5) 2pts EW
Bred to be suited by the fibresand and duly improved for switch to the surface on last two runs, including for todays jockey on penultimate start. Has been hit with a 5lb rise for win last time but did it in the style of a horse that still has a bit in hand. Today's race is of a very similar standard to the one it won last time and will be very hard to keep out of frame if reproducing that effort but still has fair bit of potential to improve on that anyway. Likely to have been a max bet at best early prices but missed some of that now but still the best bet of the day in my opinion and fully expect a very big run.

Mostly Harmless · 13-01-2019 12:36pm

1.55 Southwell: Mixboy (4/1 365, BV) 1pt Win
9 yo former NH bred horses are hardly the typical types for the fibresand but did run well on only previous start here. Has the right sort of running style for the surface and same connections have done well with the ones they have chosen to campaign on the fibresand in recent times. Two ahead of my selection in market both very impressive on recent wins but priced accordingly and thought 4s about the classiest horse in race with most potential to improve on surface represented small bit of value.

Mostly Harmless · 13-01-2019 12:40pm

1.25 Southwell: Something Lucky (11/1 Generally) 1pt Win
Decent record over C&D and drops back in class after finding class 3s bit too tough going on two recent starts. Previous run to that when beaten less than a length in same class as today would give him every chance here. Tends to get behind early so a smaller field today should help his chances, not one to be relying on by any means but 11s plenty big enough and worth a small bet.

All Weather Winter Warmer

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