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Winter 2010-2011 outlook
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Deep Easterly wrote: »La Nina is forecast to remain in full swing this coming winter:
Will this mean a colder than average winter for Ireland ?
Lets be honest, all us weather lovers are excited at the prospects for the coming winter with regards to snow & ice !
Derek0 -
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We were just talking about last winter and the frozen lake and river and the dry snow and the wonderful white Christmas. I was so delighted to see this thread and to see the optimistic predictions for snow. Last winter it was like a glorious door to the past was opened and I stepped inside to find the winter wonderlands of my youth.
The thoughts that this coming winter could be filled with the same magical potential is just too much! But I will be following this thread closely all the same. And learning lots of interesting meterological info and "impressing" my friends!
Roll on the winter.....
PS All scientific analysis aside, what does the postman predict
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desolate sun wrote: »We were just talking about last winter and the frozen lake and river and the dry snow and the wonderful white Christmas. I was so delighted to see this thread and to see the optimistic predictions for snow. Last winter it was like a glorious door to the past was opened and I stepped inside to find the winter wonderlands of my youth.
The thoughts that this coming winter could be filled with the same magical potential is just too much! But I will be following this thread closely all the same. And learning lots of interesting meterological info and "impressing" my friends!
Roll on the winter.....
PS All scientific analysis aside, what does the postman predict
he predicts a warm and dry august. he hasn't said anything about winter yet. i wouldn't get your hopes up about next winter - last winter was a once in 50 year kind of event:(0 -
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"I predict the extra boost from my predicted solar grand minimum along with the current oceanic conditions the next northern winter will experience conditions similar to the Little Ice Age (1250-1850)."
A lot of what he says is fair enough but he is making some assumptions based on previous el nino and NAO trends. Joe B carries out his long range predictions on this basis too and is usually on the money.0 -
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im thinking about digging up the pipe in the front lawn to bury it deeper, had a lot of fun last year in -12 with kettles etc.
We have the atic converted so there is heating up there , and since that was on constantly , it kept the water flowing , well most of the time.
It was great to tease all the neighbours with as they went for ages without any water at all , ahahaha , i'm awful cruel
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doesn't mean snow won't fall in between these milder spells. To be honest, it would be hard to top 2009-10 winter in terms of a sustained cold period of weather.
yes you might see another winter like last year if you live into your late seventies.
anyway, as you say a milder winter overall can sometimes have brief cold snaps which result in a lot of snow. perhaps we could get a brief northerly incursion that bring gifts in the form of a polar low from Greenland:D
I know it's only August but the snow craving is already starting to taking hold... 0 -
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nacho libre wrote: »yes you might see another winter like last year if you live into your late seventies.
anyway, as you say a milder winter overall can sometimes have brief cold snaps which result in a lot of snow. perhaps we could get a brief northerly incursion that bring gifts in the form of a polar low from Greenland:D
I know it's only August but the snow craving is already starting to taking hold...
I'd much prefer a proper beast from the East , a 'BEASTERLY':D:D 0 -
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nacho libre wrote: »yes you might see another winter like last year if you live into your late seventies.
anyway, as you say a milder winter overall can sometimes have brief cold snaps which result in a lot of snow. perhaps we could get a brief northerly incursion that bring gifts in the form of a polar low from Greenland:D
I know it's only August but the snow craving is already starting to taking hold...
I am actually hoping that this winter will be nowhere near as chilly as the last, but will welcome some big falls of snow, which milder winters actually bring! Also, we are well overdue some proper big mama storms too so I look forward to being compensated this coming winter. Snow, storm or both is preferable to what we experienced in the winter of 2009/2010.0 -
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nacho libre wrote: »yes. as you say it was intense but intermittent. i'd be looking for a storm like the one we had on st stephens day in '96 or was it '97. ah i'm bad with dates. anyway whatever year it was the storm lasted for several hours and there was a gust of 80 mph recorded well inland, with Belmullet recording a gust close to 110 mph.
I remember a particularly nasty storm on new years eve either in 2005 or 2006. I was living in Galway at the time and the winds were absolutely frightening. What I remember though was the thunder and hail triggering off car and house alarms all over the city which created a very eerie atmosphere, like a war was about to start or something! In a moment of weakness I was actually glad to see the sun come out later that day!
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A July 2009 paper by McLean, de Freitas and Carter showed that global average temperatures followed the Southern Oscillation Index (El Nino/La Nina) with a 5-8 months lag. The graph below shows that when the SOI is shifted forward by 7 months the two plots change direction together (except when volcanic eruptions caused cooling).
The chart above shows a projection of temperatures to Feb 2011. The chances are that the present warm spell will end quite suddenly before the end of this year. Over the next few months the SOI will indicate whether or not the cooling will continue beyond Feb 2011. Evidence from studies on past climate and sunspot cycle related effects gives a strong indication that the cooling will continue.
http://joannenova.com.au/2010/08/is-the-cold-weather-coming/0 -
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Deep Easterly wrote: »I remember a particularly nasty storm on new years eve either in 2005 or 2006. I was living in Galway at the time and the winds were absolutely frightening. What I remember though was the thunder and hail triggering off car and house alarms all over the city which created a very eerie atmosphere, like a war was about to start or something! In a moment of weakness I was actually glad to see the sun come out later that day!
It was 2006 - now that's what I call weather!
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up for anything wrote: »Am I the only oldie who remembers the storm of 2nd January, 1976? My sister had her baby down in Cork and my mother and I drove from the far side of Kilkenny down and back. Scary, scary drive on the way back. Driving rain, high winds and trees down all over the road and ESB/telegraph poles leaning over the road and sparking like meteor showers. Longest journey of our lives.
Little bit before my time. Here's the midnight chart for that night.
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Interesting discussion about the coming winter on this snowboarding forum
http://snowheads.com/ski-forum/viewtopic.php?t=65881&view=previous
makes some interesting points particularly:
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Hi some more good snowy weather news. the soI index (southern oscillation index)has risen from +2 to +21 since june. Anything above +8 is a developing la nina. Here is a good web site to explain this www.physicalgeography.net/fundamentals/7z.html anyone know of betting odds for big snow this year?
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Here is an article showing typical conditions over europe over the coming months when in a weak El Nina.
However we look to be heading for a moderate to strong Nina and that will be covered in part 2 so watch this space.
The autumn and winter of Nina in Europe (Part 1 - Nina weak)
This article does not discuss the situation that will affect us in the coming months, but to delve into the " nina " analyzing what's happened in Europe during periods of weak nina .
We go from month to month ...
September:
The average is quite clear: a strong and frequent infiltration cold Scandinavian anticyclone in the Mediterranean area with consequent beginning of autumn well led .
October:
In October we have , by contrast, AO and NAO indices significantly positive resulting in a strong depression of Iceland and HP lying flat on Europe.
November:
It looks like a perfect month for pluviofili especially northern Italy , in fact there is a great Arctic sea tendency to sink to the Iberian peninsula sometimes affecting Italy .
December:
December, the first of the winter months , classical influence of weak nina allowing winters characterized by negative AO and NAO , you will see there is a certain similarity with the anomalies of this winter , they are virtually the opposite of the anomalies of the month October in years of weak nina .
On balance the autumns of nina are generally weak in average temperature and more rainfall than normal over the entire peninsula.
When you open a small parenthesis on successive winters here ... geopotential anomalies during December, January , in February :
Winter is characterized by largely negative AO and NAO with frequent cold waves of low infiltration and matrix Continental Atlantic .
After this part of autumn on nina weak, there will be the second to discuss the current situation, or events nina moderate / strong.0 -
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One of the ladies in the shop where I work happened to say today that it was chilly last night with the darker evenings drawing in. Last year she was of the view that the winter of 09/10 would be cold. She mentioned today that she thinks the winter of 2010/11 will have more snow and there will be one or two real cold snaps....she might be onto something?
Derek0 -
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have had a quick look at the gsf for Xmas day and there is a 90-99% chance of snow. of course, there is a small margin of error with the model output this far out:D
Actually, I am looking forward to the FI outlooks. The forum comes alive.
Some images from last winter
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zbpaalw0-SI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rzevc1-JDFo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QASP3-yI3eI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kNu2O9dfXIY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7b5rcamAVm8
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