Relaxation of restrictions Part II

Kermit.de.frog · 03-05-2020 12:42PM

lawrencesummers wrote: »

New Zealand has done an excellent job on it, i would go as far as to say they have beaten the virus, if this turn out to just be the opening round of three I have a lot of confidence they will be able to do the same. Same with South Korea.

Comparisons with 1918 are a pointless. We didn’t have anything like todays medicine back then, the world was still 20 years away from penicillin, Scarlet fever, TB and measles were rampant. Childbirth had staggering mortality rates. There were no GP’s no pharmacies, underlying conditions were all undiagnosed, Clean water was non existent, people lived in far more cramped and unhygienic conditions.

Over 100’years later The world is a far far far different place medically and socially.

No one can "beat" the virus - unless they want to be a hermit kingdom that does business with no one and allows no one in or out. You need a vaccine.

The sad thing about your post is you are about to learn the hard way (like others on this thread) how much things have not changed between 1918 and today!

kippy · 03-05-2020 12:46PM

DebDynamite wrote: »

No, you’re not allowed to travel further than 20km until 20th July (Phase 4)

Unless you have a valid reason. There are people who have been travelling larger distances on an irregular basis to ensure their cocooning relatives are managing.

kippy · 03-05-2020 12:52PM

snowcat wrote: »

This lockdown is a bit of a joke really. I see people flouting the restrictions everyday and the Gardai dont seem to have no interest in enforcing it. You can do basically whatever you want as long as you have the right answer in case you meet a checkpoint.

Well. It's not really a lockdown for a start. There are only certain restrictions that are legally enforceable and indeed from a practical standpoint the authorities can only do so much. The reliance is on the general population to exercise some social responsibility.

helimachoptor · 03-05-2020 12:52PM

A guy from work has been down to Clare each weekend to visit his parents. They are over 70 so he brings shopping etc with him. Been stopped each time but no issues once he explains.

Gynoid · 03-05-2020 12:54PM

Galwayguy35 wrote: »

Dan O Brien said over a month ago if the economy isn't kickstarted by summer then we are in a whole heap of trouble, I'd be more inclined to take his word on it rather than your guarantee.

An economist is an expert who will know tomorrow why the things he predicted yesterday didn't happen today. "
--Evan Esar

Yer all right, keep your economists. They are just givers of opinions, contradicting each other is how they justify their raison d'etre. I base my prediction on the observation of life over a good few decades - it goes on.
And in spite of all the hysteria spouted throughout those decades it generally has gotten a lot better for us people living in the comfortable parts of the globe. I do not expect us to become Haiti anytime soon.

gozunda · 03-05-2020 12:58PM

Discodog wrote: »

So the only people to question the government are Shinnerbots ? That must include most of the Cabinet who asked for more restrictions to be lifted.

The rubbish is being posted by people with the extreme view that there can only be one opinion.

Having comprehension difficulties there or just looking for a scrap?

You must have missed this bit.

But yes the shinner bot comment was in reference to your comment "Just as many are, rightly, asking here". The number of posts in that vein are truely eye opening. Certainly not all but there are plenty..

Odd since you actually highlighted it and as pointed out in my comment it largely relates to a bunch of stuff posted in thread.

And bizarrely took that last piece you highlighted out of context.

That 'opinion piece' I referred to was the hack piece from the Indo btw which I highlighted. Do keep up.

Dont worry discodog I dont think you would ever qualify as a shiner bot :pac:

There are plenty of opinions. Thats as should be. There is also a lot of **** stirring going on. I'd suggest putting on the old critical thinking glasses - they might help.

lawrencesummers · 03-05-2020 01:09PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

No one can "beat" the virus - unless they want to be a hermit kingdom that does business with no one and allows no one in or out. You need a vaccine.

The sad thing about your post is you are about to learn the hard way (like others on this thread) how much things have not changed between 1918 and today!

Considering it’s not a sporting contest it’s fair to say that nobody can beat a virus, even a hermit kingdom, because by definition you can only beat something you are involved with.

What you can say For certain is that some countries have reacted better than others to this, some have learned from what’s gone before, and some are geographically, politically and culturally better able to deal with it, Of all the countries we have seen places like a Italy lacking any cohesive approach, and their decision making being reactive to infection instead of proactive to stop the spread. The UK being slow to realise the scale and being reactive. Countries like New Zealand (And others) have been proactive to not allow infection rates increase out of control.

Maybe a second wave does come, and infection numbers in some countries will undoubtedly increase after an initial peak and decrease, but you have no grasp on history if you think 1918 and today are anyway comparable from a public health and medical l owledge point of view.

easypazz · 03-05-2020 01:27PM

gozunda wrote: »

Truth be told the disease is out of control there

Nonsense as usual. Stockholm expects herd immunity in weeks, while here we conned into a middle of August plan and lectured about a second wave.

We think that most of those are immune from transmission in society, not the workplace. We could reach herd immunity in Stockholm within a matter of weeks.

gozunda wrote: »

and it looks like their economy is in tatters.

How is their economy in tatters? Unemployment expected to go from 7 to 10%

In Ireland it is 17% and rising, and projected to hit 22%

GDP in Sweden will take a short term hit but it is expected to bounce back in 2021.

gozunda wrote: »

With rights come responsibilities.

More tosh.

You have swallowed Holohans doctrine hook, line and sinker.

We have a right to challenge and question these peoples strategy. The government paniced into this strategy and like you are afraid to accept that there might have been a better way.

Don't be surprised if we are following the Sweden model by July.

I have moved on from observing the lockdown. I am capable of doing so while engaging in social distancing, being sensible and not risking spreading the disease. As are most people, but the government don't want to accept that.

growleaves · 03-05-2020 01:44PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Waves are the typical evolution.

The Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy in the US has the 3 scenarios outlined

Even JP Morgan has the scenario outline for it's clients

The outlook this year is not good and those who reopen too soon will have the more difficult time reimposing the measures to re-contain it.

We don't want to be in that nightmare.

But sure keep the fingers in your ears, lalalalala, you have your belief and not science.

My 'belief' is not that there won't be a second wave. Its that evoking the worst second wave of a pandemic in history - from a time when there had just been a world war, food shortages were rife, aspirin poisoning, and modern medicine was 100 years less advanced - is a form of yellow journalism, and deniable dishonesty.

That worst case scenarios from mid-March onwards did not materialise* should, with proper humility and self-reflection, be a factor now in the readiness to believe without evidence that the worst scenarios will play out.

* I mean independent of the lockdown, as many predictions were. 'Increases of roughly 30% every day. This is inevitable. This cannot be stopped.' - Leo Varadkar

MarkY91 · 03-05-2020 01:46PM

snotboogie wrote: »

Pubs who can't control social distancing won't be allowed to open. Look at the document, there are zero plans to lift social distancing

So no pubs will be opening so

lord quackinton · 03-05-2020 01:49PM

i am confused by the 5km radius thingy.
the 5km radius circle has a circumference of 2*pie*5 = 31km???
this means you go 31km from your home in a straight line from tuesday as long as you go back the same way???
and where does radii and the diameter factor in?? and how many circles are there??
please help, i think i might go outside the safe zone and end up in mountjoy and i am way too good looking for that.

but let me very clear, everybody must follow the strict government lockdown policies and anyone who breaks them needs to be dealt with harshly by the law. i am talking trial by social media, lose their job, criminal record, children taken into care, and lastly public flogging.
its time to get tough on yahoos who are destroying this lovely holiday we are all having.

Gynoid · 03-05-2020 01:53PM

lord quackinton wrote: »

i am confused by the 5km radius thingy.
the 5km radius circle has a circumference of 2*pie*5 = 31km???
this means you go 31km from your home in a straight line from tuesday as long as you go back the same way???
and where does radii and the diameter factor in?? and how many circles are there??
please help, i think i might go outside the safe zone and end up in mountjoy and i am way too good looking for that.

but let me very clear, everybody must follow the strict government lockdown policies and anyone who breaks them needs to be dealt with harshly by the law. i am talking trial by social media, lose their job, criminal record, children taken into care, and lastly public flogging.
its time to get tough on yahoos who are destroying this lovely holiday we are all having.

There's a lovely chap called Paddygreen to whom I should introduce you. He is probably unusually good looking also.

Gods Gift · 03-05-2020 01:55PM

lord quackinton wrote: »

i am confused by the 5km radius thingy.
the 5km radius circle has a circumference of 2*pie*5 = 31km???
this means you go 31km from your home in a straight line from tuesday as long as you go back the same way???
and where does radii and the diameter factor in?? and how many circles are there??
please help, i think i might go outside the safe zone and end up in mountjoy and i am way too good looking for that.

but let me very clear, everybody must follow the strict government lockdown policies and anyone who breaks them needs to be dealt with harshly by the law. i am talking trial by social media, lose their job, criminal record, children taken into care, and lastly public flogging.
its time to get tough on yahoos who are destroying this lovely holiday we are all having.

Mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

Pie.

Jim Gazebo · 03-05-2020 02:04PM

Neighbours have the whole lot over today. Grandkids, and children. Unreal. Can't believe that.

drunkmonkey · 03-05-2020 02:04PM

DebDynamite wrote: »

No, you’re not allowed to travel further than 20km until 20th July (Phase 4)

78 more days, tbh there's going to be immense pressure to lift that rule. No way is the entire country going to be paralyzed until then.
Maybe stay within your own province until then would be a better plan.

VonLuck · 03-05-2020 02:05PM

lord quackinton wrote: »

but let me very clear, everybody must follow the strict government lockdown policies and anyone who breaks them needs to be dealt with harshly by the law. i am talking trial by social media, lose their job, criminal record, children taken into care, and lastly public flogging.
its time to get tough on yahoos who are destroying this lovely holiday we are all having.

Not sure what your point is in your ramblings. Are you saying we shouldn't have restrictions, or just don't enforce them?

drunkmonkey · 03-05-2020 02:07PM

Jim Gazebo wrote: »

Neighbours have the whole lot over today. Grandkids, and children. Unreal. Can't believe that.

Why if they've been isolating until now what's the problem. I see my mum everyday and my brother and sister go to her as well, she actually got a bit cross because I didn't bring up the grankids during the week.

growleaves · 03-05-2020 02:09PM

lawrencesummers wrote: »

Maybe a second wave does come, and infection numbers in some countries will undoubtedly increase after an initial peak and decrease, but you have no grasp on history if you think 1918 and today are anyway comparable from a public health and medical l owledge point of view.

Think of all the pandemics from the 20th century big and small - the 1957 pandemic, the 1969 pandemic, encephalitis lethargica, Swine Flu- and ask why are none of these being mentioned or looked to?

Evocations of the Spanish Flu allow people to fantasise that millions of people are about to die in a few months time. In reality that would be like winning a negative lottery. You could win this inverted-lottery but should policies be based around scenarios with extremely low likelihood?

Wtf ? · 03-05-2020 02:12PM

Jim Gazebo wrote: »

Neighbours have the whole lot over today. Grandkids, and children. Unreal. Can't believe that.

North Korea's 3 generations rule would work a treat here

Concretejungle · 03-05-2020 02:14PM

lord quackinton wrote: »

i am confused by the 5km radius thingy.
the 5km radius circle has a circumference of 2*pie*5 = 31km???
this means you go 31km from your home in a straight line from tuesday as long as you go back the same way???
and where does radii and the diameter factor in?? and how many circles are there??
please help, i think i might go outside the safe zone and end up in mountjoy and i am way too good looking for that.

but let me very clear, everybody must follow the strict government lockdown policies and anyone who breaks them needs to be dealt with harshly by the law. i am talking trial by social media, lose their job, criminal record, children taken into care, and lastly public flogging.
its time to get tough on yahoos who are destroying this lovely holiday we are all having.

I think they mean you can only venture out 5km from your home in a radius of 5km, but you could walk round and round as many times as you like and accumulate mileage that way if you so desired, once you are not more than 5 km from your home.

DebDynamite · 03-05-2020 02:18PM

drunkmonkey wrote: »

78 more days, tbh there's going to be immense pressure to lift that rule. No way is the entire country going to be paralyzed until then.
Maybe stay within your own province until then would be a better plan.

Yeah, that totally would’ve made more sense. My parents live in the next county, but outside the 20km limit. Even if I were to go and see them, I would still only go and sit with them in the garden whilst maintaining social distancing, because even though it might be allowed to go and visit them in their home, the risk is still there for me to pass the virus on to them. So having to wait until 20th July to sit in the garden with my parents who live in the next county is absolutely ridiculous

FintanMcluskey · 03-05-2020 02:18PM

horse7 wrote: »

Does anyone else think that we have become a nanny state. We all know that we should wash our hand's ,limit our contact and wear face coverings especially in shopping areas,buses etc. Our hospitals are half empty for capacity to deal with the virus. We are being treated like children and told to stay in. There is no point in a driving limit. It's when you get out of the car you need to look after yourself. A lot of the older people are afraid to leave the house. Most people have the sense to allow more personal space if possible. With the present lockdown there will be a high price to pay, apart from job losses there will be all that goes with that, health issues, physical and mental and suicides. We need more testing and a CEO in the HSE with a medical background. We need a government that is not hiding behind the medical advisors. There are more issues at stake and any GP is going to err on the side of caution. Life in Seoul is carrying on as near normal, the trains are full, the kids are at school, you can eat in a restaurant. Everyone wears face coverings, young to old. Testing is still a priority also. We don't even have hardware stores or garden centres open, which was another mistake by the government. They move the goalpost as it suits, we've seen the R factor, the new cases, the daily death rate, it's become a nanny state. Opinions please.

It appears Ireland has. It wouldn't be so if the persons who assumed control were transparent and gave detailed targets to meet, "as low as possible" was a response to a direct question to Tony H. Isn't that some guff of an answer from a guy who has assumed total control.
The lack if transparency also exists between Tony, Leo and Simon and the minister's. The document published Friday which will seperate families and remove liberties for 6 months was released so late on Friday the ministers couldn't debate over its functionality.
The media loving immunologist's and doctor's have by now embarrassed themselves enough with utter bulls##t models and projections of 120k and above dead in Ireland. The platform they have used needs to be removed week. They have had to much effect with the inaccurate lies and self importance they have been spreading. People have been lead to believe that the restrictions have prevented 120k dying in Ireland which is utter rubbish.

From this week on I want every lying goon removed from the TV and the business minister (who hasnt got any airtime for some bizzare reason) sat down with every economist they can drag out of a cave to inform us about whats ahead.
If those economist suggest a famine will strike Ireland this Winter, its no less responsible then suggesting Covid will kill 120k in Ireland with no evidence to back up an absurd claim.

what the hell! · 03-05-2020 02:25PM

Safe enough to start booking hotels in Ireland for a few nights in the month of August I assume?

ToTheSea · 03-05-2020 02:38PM

Deleted User wrote: »

For a lot of people, the governments plan mean they can’t see family until 20th July. And even then, they keep pushing things back so it could be longer. Could be almost a half a year without seeing family.

Most just won’t obey that.

I certainly won't be obey that rule until the 20th. I intend travelling from east to west in the next few weeks. Main reason to get away from a fairly difficult living situation and get some peace.

I would be quite active but finding it difficult to properly social distancing when out exercising in the urban area I'm currently living as every Tom, Dick and Harry seems to be walking, running etc. Many don't seem to want to bother with social distancing as they are walking 2 or 3 abreast and not even bothering to try and go single file when they are passing me so I'm forced to walk on the road in order to keep a safe distance. Where I would be going in the west would be pretty isolated so I would hardly see another person when getting out for exercise.

rob316 · 03-05-2020 02:41PM

It will be accelerated and that's not out of optimism its realism. We can not shut down the country for 5 months. As the numbers continue to fall and other EU countries have lesser restrictions the pressure will mount on NPHET. Tony Holohan can't be the loudest voice and zero consideration given to anything else but the public health.

FintanMcluskey · 03-05-2020 02:44PM

rob316 wrote: »

It will be accelerated and that's not out of optimism its realism. We can not shut down the country for 5 months. As the numbers continue to fall and other EU countries have lesser restrictions the pressure will mount on NPHET. Tony Holohan can't be the loudest voice and zero consideration given to anything else but the public health.

Its only immediate public health considerations, it will have to be accelerated. My only concern is that they wont come under pressure without a government.

Discodog · 03-05-2020 02:51PM

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Its only immediate public health considerations, it will have to be accelerated. My only concern is that they wont come under pressure without a government.

This is a big concern. Nothing is being debated & won't be for quite a while. No debate means no questions & no scrutiny.

drunkmonkey · 03-05-2020 02:55PM

what the hell! wrote: »

Safe enough to start booking hotels in Ireland for a few nights in the month of August I assume?

No unless it's 0 deposit. Can see them opening then closed with outbreaks.

easypazz · 03-05-2020 03:02PM

rob316 wrote: »

It will be accelerated and that's not out of optimism its realism. We can not shut down the country for 5 months. As the numbers continue to fall and other EU countries have lesser restrictions the pressure will mount on NPHET. Tony Holohan can't be the loudest voice and zero consideration given to anything else but the public health.

What they have done is set out a fairly worst case scenario and hope to announce good news accelerations as the weeks pass.

Biggest issue I see is the UK situation and the border.

Discodog · 03-05-2020 03:02PM

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Its only immediate public health considerations, it will have to be accelerated. My only concern is that they wont come under pressure without a government.

This is a big concern. Nothing is being debated & won't be for quite a while. No debate means no questions & no scrutiny.

Relaxation of restrictions Part II

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