Prolonged cold spell on the way

darkman2 · 15-11-2010 5:46pm #1

Very, very rare to see such almost concise agreement across all models but a sharp East and Northeasterly looks very likely before the end of the month with the European models really pushing this in particular in terms of potential for frost, ice and even snow.

120hrs is the key time frame. High pressure building toward Greenland and across the Northern Latitudes signals a fundamental shift in our weather.

gme-0-132.png?12

Looking across the other models (which I will update later as some are not out yet)....the UK Met Office at 144hrs

GFS

NOGAPS model

nogaps-0-180.png?15-17

Snow is unusual but not unheard of in November and this is quite unusual pattern at any time of year but was frequent last Winter.

So in short a cold Northeasterly seems to be on the way but it remains to be seen as to what the depth of cold will be. Either way the weather will feel different outdoors come Sunday!

More later...

MUSEIST · 15-11-2010 6:15pm

Bring it on.:D:D:D:D:D

isle of man · 15-11-2010 7:46pm

whooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

darkman2 · 15-11-2010 7:58pm

A bit of a stunning ECM tonight for the time of year. I expect Weathercheck in here imminently

144hrs - Not exceptionally cold but still a bitter enough Northeasterly wind

http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECM1-144.GIF?15-0

168hrs - Completely different story as winds swing Easterly and increase and wintry showers into the East

ECM1-168.GIF?15-0

Might aswell go a little further

192hrs - scattered sleet and snow showers - very cold and frosty inland esspecially at night.

ECM1-192.GIF?15-0

And continues very cold and wintry throughout.

JanuarySnowstor · 15-11-2010 8:11pm

An awesome ECM run.
If memory serves me right most of last Winter the 850's were higher than -5 and yet it was bitterly cold.
This looks like an extreme event for November, which in a way is a tad worrying because this is the last thing Ireland and indeed Europe need.
Still bring it on:D:D

lord lucan · 15-11-2010 8:57pm

Ah ****e!:(

patneve2 · 15-11-2010 9:04pm

Great charts but my gut tells me that high pressure will continuously shift to the East, sending most of the cold to Central/Eastern Europe. No scientific foundation to my above point, so it's validity to close to zero.

Takeshi_Kovacs · 15-11-2010 11:54pm

Winter came even a bit earlier last night in Dingle. They had very intense hail/snow shower with thunder/lightning for a good bit during the night. Albeit a lot of it had melted away today, there was still a few patches where it was clinging.
I thought i was seeing things when i saw snow banked up against the ditche on the road in..

danni2 · 16-11-2010 12:30am

Yeah great charts, snow in November certainly can't be ruled out, never forget the time we had snow on Nov 24th/25th 2006.

angelfire9 · 16-11-2010 12:54am

So if we are to expect snow in November how long do ye weather gurus think it will last?

Aiel · 16-11-2010 1:04am

So if those charts are correct we are looking at it being close to zero during the day next Monday??

nacho libre · 16-11-2010 1:25am

Aiel wrote: »

So if those charts are correct we are looking at it being close to zero during the day next Monday??

Late November is a bit too early for temperatures to be close to freezing by day. it'll be more like 3 - 8 degrees.

WolfeIRE · 16-11-2010 1:57am

zero or less where fog persists. Nacho is about right with those temps. Of course, the longer the cold persists the colder it will become. Add in the shortening days and temps should drop closer to 3-4c during the day if the cold persists into december.

force eleven · 16-11-2010 6:26am

angelfire9 wrote: »

So if we are to expect snow in November how long do ye weather gurus think it will last?

It's hard to say. I don't recall seeing such charts so early in the season. Those Greenland and/or Scandinavian Highs are notoriously stubborn to shift once they get a grip. We could see, as MT has alluded to in his forecast, mild Atlantic weather trying to push through periodically and in such cases a tremendous meteorological battle takes place between mild and cold air with severe blizzards for the boundary line of the two masses. This happened a lot in 1947 but that winter didn t really start until the end of January! MT's excellent forecast reminds me of that winters pattern. This 'could' be another classic winter, but only time will really tell.

sunbabe08 · 16-11-2010 8:26am

yay:D although now struggling to move right due to leaving window opened alnight:o

senordingdong · 16-11-2010 8:30am

Ah sure didn't we get by just fine last year?

angelfire9 · 16-11-2010 11:38am

Oh GOD

I normally like snow I really do
And its a great chance for the kids to build snowmen (which they didn't really get to do last winter around here because it was all ice)

BUT I REALLY don't want a repeat of last winter
Floods I could manage
But ice on the roads? No thanks

I am due a baby on December 19th and am dreading the weather and the drive to Limerick

If it turns bad in January I'd be fine with that!

Deep Easterly · 16-11-2010 11:49am

nacho libre wrote: »

Late November is a bit too early for temperatures to be close to freezing by day. it'll be more like 3 - 8 degrees.

The end of November 2008 saw max temps struggling to reach 0c in parts of the midlands and east esp. As Wolfe said, this was due to persistant fog during the day.

Average (61-90) daytime maxima for the end of November ranges from 8c-10c inland to 9c-11c in more coastal areas.

dexter647 · 16-11-2010 12:05pm

angelfire9 wrote: »

Oh GOD

I normally like snow I really do
And its a great chance for the kids to build snowmen (which they didn't really get to do last winter around here because it was all ice)

BUT I REALLY don't want a repeat of last winter
Floods I could manage
But ice on the roads? No thanks

I am due a baby on December 19th and am dreading the weather and the drive to Limerick

If it turns bad in January I'd be fine with that!

Totally understand where your coming from as my wife is due in dec as well...So lets hope it aint 2 bad then and we get a nice snowy jan to enjoy by the fire...Best of luck with the new baby:)

WolfeIRE · 16-11-2010 12:48pm

angelfire9 wrote: »

Oh GOD

I am due a baby on December 19th and am dreading the weather and the drive to Limerick

If it turns bad in January I'd be fine with that!

Hi Angel same for my wife and I last december. While i love snow and the cold we had the worry of going to the regional from west clare at any moment. We ended up asking the midwife at the last scan could my wife be brought in to be induced as a result of the weather. they said yes as she was full term.

If things get too bad you can always ask to be brought in. It's for the safety of your child and you, and not for convenience. the hospital 'should' accept this.

Congrats and best of luck to you and yours.

Wolfe

nacho libre · 16-11-2010 3:07pm

Deep Easterly wrote: »

The end of November 2008 saw max temps struggling to reach 0c in parts of the midlands and east esp. As Wolfe said, this was due to persistant fog during the day.

Average (61-90) daytime maxima for the end of November ranges from 8c-10c inland to 9c-11c in more coastal areas.

Ah yes i forgot the trifiling detail about lingering fog :P

I was going on the basis that the fog would burn off in most places. Although as Wolfe' says the longer the cold lasts, with the shortening days and the colder air eventually winging it's way over from the continent, then the temperature will steadily fall back closer to zero, with or without fog.

maquiladora · 16-11-2010 3:45pm

UK Outlook for Sunday 21 Nov 2010 to Tuesday 30 Nov 2010:

A good deal of cloud around this weekend, showers or longer spells of rain affecting southern and eastern parts on Sunday when the far south will also be quite windy. Next week conditions will soon turn colder. Northern and eastern parts in particular will remain unsettled and, at times, windy with showers and hill snow, these showers turning increasingly wintry with a risk of snow to lower levels developing later in the week. Parts of the Midlands and Irish Sea coastal areas also at risk from wintry showers later. Temperatures largely below average for the time of year and feeling cold, especially where conditions are windy. The cold theme then continues into the last week of November, with northern and eastern parts most at risk from wintry weather.

Updated: 1208 on Tue 16 Nov 2010

UK Outlook for Wednesday 1 Dec 2010 to Wednesday 15 Dec 2010:

It is expected to remain cold across much of the UK, with precipitation amounts around average, or slightly below, throughout the period. Northeasterly winds could bring wintry showers to northern and eastern areas at times. Amounts of sunshine should be above average away from northern and eastern coasts where it is likely to be cloudier. Temperatures are likely to be below average across the country, with frosty nights and the possibility of some wintry precipitation at times for most areas.

Updated: 1154 on Tue 16 Nov 2010

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

UKMO is going for a cold and wintry UK from from late Nov to mid Dec. I know that doesn't include us but it's encouraging.

Pangea · 17-11-2010 2:19am

SNOW AND -10C ON WAY AS AN ARCTIC WIND BLASTS UK

DIG out the woollies – forecasters predict snow and frost is on the way this weekend.

A seven-day cold snap will begin on Sunday as winter arrives a month earlier than last year.

Freezing air from the Arctic will push daytime temperatures to zero across the North, delivering up to an inch of snow in parts.

Across the South, the first flakes could fall during the week as temperatures reach just 2C (36F) during the day.

FOLLOW THE EXPRESS ON TWITTER!

And overnight frosts could send the mercury down to -10C (14F), causing treacherous driving conditions each morning.

Brian Gaze, of forecasters The Weather Outlook, said: “A cold spell will push southwards with an increasing risk of frost and snow for much of Britain.

“The highest chance of snow is in the North and East, with London also at risk and higher ground in the South-east, such as the Chiltern hills, having a higher chance of snow.

“Overnight frosts are likely to be widespread, with lows of -10C (14F) possible where snow lies.”

Met Office forecaster John Hammond added: “Average temperatures for this time of year are 7-9C (45-48F), but we are looking at lower than that next week.”

With winter expected to be as harsh as last year – the coldest in 31 years – experts have begun predicting a white Christmas.

Jonathan Powell of Positive Weather Solutions said: “We are still on for a white Christmas for most of Britain, even in the South-east. December and January are looking bitterly cold, so it looks as if temperatures will be parallel to last year.”

http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/211964/Snow-and-10C-on-way-as-an-Arctic-wind-blasts-UK

maquiladora · 17-11-2010 10:11am

I know it's still a way off but it's great to see these kind of charts in November. :pac:

This day next week.....

528 line extended down over the country :

The Atlantic blocked, cold air making its way towards us :

Hope this early cold is a good sign for the rest of the winter.

maquiladora · 17-11-2010 8:03pm

Any thoughts on the 12Z ECM?

metrovelvet · 17-11-2010 9:17pm

dexter647 wrote: »

Totally understand where your coming from as my wife is due in dec as well...So lets hope it aint 2 bad then and we get a nice snowy jan to enjoy by the fire...Best of luck with the new baby:)

Oh right. So all the people with babies due in January can get screwed.

I hate this weather. Last year the ambulences couldnt get to a lot of the country because of the snow and ice. Neither could the oil trucks get to homes. It was terrible.

Avns1s · 17-11-2010 10:20pm

metrovelvet wrote: »

Oh right. So all the people with babies due in January can get screwed.

I hate this weather. Last year the ambulences couldnt get to a lot of the country because of the snow and ice. Neither could the oil trucks get to homes. It was terrible.

That's a bit harsh don't you think. I am sure not even the most enthusiastic weather fan would wish any hardship on any expectant mother or her new arrival.

Whatever about the ambulances being challenged, there is no excuse for the oil truck not being able to get to homes. My view on it is that a small bit of forward planning would ensure that the oil truck would not be needed as the tank should be adequately full in advance of the cold weather, particularly if access is via hilly side roads. Plan ahead!

Godge · 17-11-2010 10:23pm

metrovelvet wrote: »

Oh right. So all the people with babies due in January can get screwed.

I hate this weather. Last year the ambulences couldnt get to a lot of the country because of the snow and ice. Neither could the oil trucks get to homes. It was terrible.

10-15 years of warmer winters made people forget about how difficult rural locations are in cold weather. The "dream house" out in the countryside to bring up children can become a nightmare as a result.

thetonynator · 17-11-2010 10:35pm

Everyone is getting awfully excited about this!!!

BEASTERLY · 17-11-2010 10:46pm

thetonynator wrote: »

Everyone is getting awfully excited about this!!!

The thing is the last GFS run showed the horrible scenario of the high moving towards us and all the cold moving to our south east and into Europe. Hopefully this run will change that!!

Su Campu · 17-11-2010 10:46pm

12Z ECMWF keeps the cold theme going for next week, with some welcome drying in the easterly flow. The wind is southerly up Baffin Bay, as opposed to the persistent northerly that's been in place for the past several weeks. This southerly flow pumps high geopotentials northwards, intensifying the Greenland high, and leading to probably a week or more of continental chill. There's a chance of a polar low forming off the Norwegian coast Sunday, but it won't affect us.

Watch for some possibly foggy nights over the weekend, followed by some very harsh frosts next week. I can't see us being affected by anticyclonic gloomy low stratus, so sunshine hours should be up.

gothwalk · 17-11-2010 10:54pm

metrovelvet wrote: »

Oh right. So all the people with babies due in January can get screwed.

Dude, take the anger elsewhere. No amount of hoping or not hoping will affect the weather one whit. I like snow and cold; I know how to deal with it, having spent time in colder climates in winter, and it does no harm to you for me to say that I hope it snows, any more than it does to me for you to say you hope it doesn't.

If you've a kid due in January, plan accordingly; those of us who know what to do in winter can give you some advice. But giving out to people for the weather they'd like to see is two steps past pointless.

H2UMrsRobinson · 17-11-2010 10:59pm

There's 'nout so divisive as a difference of opinion!

K-9 · 17-11-2010 11:02pm

Avns1s wrote: »

That's a bit harsh don't you think. I am sure not even the most enthusiastic weather fan would wish any hardship on any expectant mother or her new arrival.

Whatever about the ambulances being challenged, there is no excuse for the oil truck not being able to get to homes. My view on it is that a small bit of forward planning would ensure that the oil truck would not be needed as the tank should be adequately full in advance of the cold weather, particularly if access is via hilly side roads. Plan ahead!

Ambulances are a serious problem though, experienced bother with that last year too. Plus if anything does happen, visiting people in hospitals is difficult and when my Dad passed away during the cold spell in early January, a nightmare for organising wakes, funerals etc.

I love snow btw!

Min · 17-11-2010 11:04pm

When they are giving snow and ice I just get in a lot of food, stick some in the freezer and be prepared for the worse.
On a steep hill so can get snowed in and last winter there was just lots of ice on the road and an invisible county council clearing the roads......that is what we pay our road tax for...to grit roads we don't use.

I think it's going to be a long winter, not looking forward to it but nothing can be done in regards to the weather, just be prepared.

We were lucky last winter we didn't get the end of March blizzard in January as the snow would have lasted for a few months...

So can we expect any snow on higher ground next week?

Min · 18-11-2010 9:57am

Ok, MetEireann says sleet and snow showers next week on hills and mountains for the north and east.

Looks like we are into winter proper now.

200motels · 18-11-2010 10:14am

Roll on the Winter and maybe just maybe we might get some proper snow this time down here.

maquiladora · 18-11-2010 10:15am

Min wrote: »

Ok, MetEireann says sleet and snow showers next week on hills and mountains for the north and east.

Looks like we are into winter proper now.

Yep.

Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday of next week will be very cold days with daytime temperatures ranging from about 4 to 7 degrees. The nights will be very cold also with widespread sharp or severe frosts. Many areas will be dry with good sunshine. However showers will develop near north and east coasts. These will turn wintry as the week goes on, falling as sleet and possibly as snow on hills and mountains, especially at night.

18-11-2010 10:40am

Deep Easterly wrote: »

The end of November 2008 saw max temps struggling to reach 0c in parts of the midlands and east esp. As Wolfe said, this was due to persistant fog during the day.
.

I know but isn't that whats known as and I hate to use the word "faux cold" in that it goes the minute the fog lifts or precip moves in and you have rain.
Cold near the ground unfortunately does not make what most people want ..snow
An interesting couple of months if not weeks ahead nonetheless.

maquiladora · 18-11-2010 11:42am

06Z GFS is making this upcoming cold spell look increasingly dry.

Speak Now · 18-11-2010 12:38pm

maquiladora wrote: »

06Z GFS is making this upcoming cold spell look increasingly dry.

That's good news, nice Christmas shopping weather

Min · 18-11-2010 12:57pm

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

That's good news, nice Christmas shopping weather

Imagine if we got lots of snow and no presents :eek:

Speak Now · 18-11-2010 1:00pm

Min wrote: »

Imagine if we got lots of snow and no presents :eek:

Would be the best present for lots of us

Iancar29 · 18-11-2010 1:02pm

In light of the winter to come ... we just hav to look across the ocean to be jealous , as ITS ONLY NOVEMBER..!

http://www.webcamsinnorway.com/webcams.php?viewcam=1858

NOT FAIR

nacho libre · 18-11-2010 1:05pm

Personally i'm looking forward to some cold and dry weather. I've had enough wet weather for a while. Anyway as we all know sustained cold increases the chances of sleet and snow eventually falling in some parts of the country.

Redsunset · 18-11-2010 1:13pm

Underneath my tree outside on christmas morning i want my a big white present that stretches across the land

maquiladora · 18-11-2010 1:42pm

Latest UKMO outlook keeps it cold right way out to Dec 17th with "wintry precipitation at times for many areas" in the UK.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

Doesn't agree with the GFS which shows a breakdown happening before the end of November. Still all very much up in the air

Rabble Rabble · 18-11-2010 3:08pm

I see Dublin at 11 this morning, and its gets down to the lowest daily max of 7 next week. Thats below average, but nothing to indicate a very strong cold spell. When is the real cold spell.

nacho libre · 18-11-2010 4:32pm

maquiladora wrote: »

I wouldn't be splashing out on winter gear just yet. Still every chance we could be in for nothing more than a frosty/dry or wet/overcast winter.

the ukmo monthly update, which is fairly promising from the perspective of a snow lover, is usually fairly accurate - they, if i'm not mistaken, use the ecm model, which seems to be better at handling blocking than the gfs. the gfs seems to throw wobblers only to later back ecm ouput..

that said if the ecm suddenly backs the gfs i will share your pessismism. as it would indicate, despite the promising background signals, that Stuart Rampling(the chief netweather forecaster) maybe right about a toppling or mid-latitude high being the dominant feature of December.

Although, it's worth mentioning that M.T. cranium's colleague, Blast from the past' has said that he expected blocking may well fail in November due to a sinking high, but that as we go in to December a blocking pattern would eventually emerge and hold- but for how long;)

we shall see.

WolfeIRE · 18-11-2010 4:49pm

http://news.sky.com/skynews/Article/201009115817178

snow on the way, for eastern parts of uk.

WolfeIRE · 18-11-2010 5:35pm

Looking at the charts for nextw eek I think most of us are in for a dry and settled week with some locally severe frosts with the possibility of fog lingering through much of the morning greater as we reach midweek.

Any wintry outbreak in the east and north would be more likely towards the end of the week and into the weekend after next. The Dublin/Wicklow mts and high ground in Kilkenny (yes Min:D) are almost certain to see some snow showers come the end of next week.

Prolonged cold spell on the way

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