FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 / 2019 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

highdef · 08-02-2019 3:18pm

Went back to legacy site on my android device and it's fine now. Weird.

Mortelaro · 08-02-2019 6:03pm

Very cold but Dry in our neck of the woods in a week or two on the 12zgfs
A shallow low near SE England will give snow there
All FI
Another variation on a theme
What will that spell do to average February temps,bring them in well under average probably

PokeHerKing · 08-02-2019 6:07pm

I can't chase another 10 dayer. Somebody PM me at T48.

Gonzo · 08-02-2019 6:36pm

Mortelaro wrote: »

Very cold but Dry in our neck of the woods in a week or two on the 12zgfs
A shallow low near SE England will give snow there
All FI
Another variation on a theme
What will that spell do to average February temps,bring them in well under average probably

The 12zGFS has us narrowly missing out on a Beast, perhaps still some light snow showers in Leinster. This is still two weeks ago and will chop and change, the main thing we can take from this is the trend is definitely colder and all signs towards the Atlantic being cut off for the last 10 days of February. Knowing our luck the high will be too close to us when the time comes, but certainly some exciting model watching coming over the next week hopefully.

The GFS ensembles are still updating and several of them are going close to the freezer from about the 18th, will take a closer look when all the models have finished updating.

sryanbruen · 08-02-2019 6:38pm

Meanwhile, in the more reliable end of FI, the GFS 12z showed the prospects of a very mild Valentine's Day 2019 with a southerly flow of air. Isobars to Ireland coming all the way from North Africa.

I would think there'd be a possibility of maxima of 12-14c, maybe even 15c in the odd spot?

Rebelbrowser · 09-02-2019 12:51am

Day 11 so this is in the bag.....

Gonzo · 09-02-2019 1:00am

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Day 11 so this is in the bag.....

not a great run tonight, we get a brief toppler on the 18th/19th of February, then high pressure moves from the Atlantic on the 20th and mild Atlantic after that with no sign of proper easterlies in tonight's run.

hatrickpatrick · 09-02-2019 4:19am

Terrible FV3 18z tonight but the ECM is still trying to establish blocks and disrupt the jet stream, so in my view we wait for the overnight and morning runs to compare. We're still very much potentially in the game here.

Harry Palmr · 11-02-2019 12:08am

The outlook seems to be developing continental HP, Atlantic interlude, developing continental HP. The weather is on a loop!

hatrickpatrick · 12-02-2019 10:13pm

Deep FI and just for the craic for now, but....

Birdnuts · 12-02-2019 10:54pm

The raging PV is bottling up serious cold that will have to be released at some point - sooner rather than later would be best IMO

Donegal Storm · 13-02-2019 12:47am

Birdnuts wrote: »

The raging PV is bottling up serious cold that will have to be released at some point - sooner rather than later would be best IMO

By the time the current mild spell ends we'll already be past the worthwhile cold spell stage, anything from mid February onwards means daytime melting and slush no matter how cold the airmass is.

sryanbruen · 15-02-2019 8:06pm

Models trending very mild or even warm (by February standards) for later next week. ECM 12z is particularly mild and as extreme as it gets I think so maybe an outlier. GFS 12z delays the warmth and doesn't get quite as far west.

q85dw7osi4lebg · 15-02-2019 8:13pm

What's the origin of said warmth ?

Meteorite58 · 15-02-2019 8:17pm

Seems quite plausible sryanbruen. We seem to be well entrenched in mild Southerlies as heights build and HP becomes established over Europe.

The big LP in the Atlantic helping the Southerlies along also.

Ultimate Seduction · 15-02-2019 9:45pm

Any clear, sunshine days on the horizon? Seems a waste of mild weather when it comes with a driving, wet wind. Still can't do anything outside.

sryanbruen · 15-02-2019 9:48pm

Ultimate Seduction wrote: »

Any clear, sunshine days on the horizon? Seems a waste of mild weather when it comes with a driving, wet wind. Still can't do anything outside.

Sunshine is hard to predict. If the ECM was to verify above, it would be very settled. It's a setup that is nearly akin to late March 2012 if you can remember that period although of course a month earlier than that so there would be some possible differences.

sryanbruen · 15-02-2019 11:26pm

The UK and Ireland won't be alone in the very mild conditions, the majority of Europe will. The map shows the temperature anomalies from the GFS 12z for 26th February 2019 - a complete flip around from 2018 when the map would be all blue from the Beast being unleashed.

Gonzo · 16-02-2019 12:22am

Very mild or warm over the next 2 to 3 weeks, this isn't just confined to the UK and Ireland, but stretches all the way from Galway Bay to Tokyo in the long range forecasts. A very warm trench of above average temperatures stretching from Ireland through Europe, into Russia and eastwards into the Asian continent over the next 3 weeks.

JCX BXC · 16-02-2019 1:18am

Monkeynut wrote: »

Why is north Africa all blue, well mostly?

It's colder than usual

Cork Boy 53 · 16-02-2019 12:36pm

Gonzo wrote: »

Very mild or warm over the next 2 to 3 weeks, this isn't just confined to the UK and Ireland, but stretches all the way from Galway Bay to Tokyo in the long range forecasts. A very warm trench of above average temperatures stretching from Ireland through Europe, into Russia and eastwards into the Asian continent over the next 3 weeks.

Not good news as the odds are even more likely that we will have a cold spring to make up for all these mild conditions.

Gonzo · 16-02-2019 12:53pm

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

Not good news as the odds are even more likely that we will have a cold spring to make up for all these mild conditions.

latest ensembles show a cooling trend into the first week of March, with temperatures becoming more average.

ens_image.php?geoid=64981&var=201&run=6&date=2019-02-16&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=

ens_image.php?geoid=64981&var=201&run=6&date=2019-02-16&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=

There is certainly the possibility that March could be a colder month overall then December and February which were both very mild. Temperatures for most of this February are 3 to 6C above average, on some days close to 10C above average, I doubt this level of above average temperatures would be maintained through March. We will probably end up with the mild side of average for March.

squarecircles · 16-02-2019 2:40pm

Artane2002 · 16-02-2019 3:11pm

The GFS has a cold bias so it might go higher than 17c on that chart...

Gonzo · 16-02-2019 3:20pm

we could get close to Ireland's February high temperature record being broken next Sunday if it's warm and sunny enough. Our temperature record is currently 18.1C at the Phoenix Park in 1891.

WhiteMemento9 · 16-02-2019 3:55pm

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

Not good news as the odds are even more likely that we will have a cold spring to make up for all these mild conditions.

Is there actual science behind this that weather tries to balance out as it just sounds like completely made up nonsense?

MidMan25 · 16-02-2019 3:58pm

WhiteMemento9 wrote: »

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

Not good news as the odds are even more likely that we will have a cold spring to make up for all these mild conditions.

Is there actual science behind this that weather tries to balance out as it just sounds like completely made up nonsense?

The science is that temp and rainfall tend to average out over 12 months.

nacho libre · 16-02-2019 6:49pm

Artane2002 wrote: »

The GFS has a cold bias so it might go higher than 17c on that chart...

It's unsual to see temperatures depicted to be higher in parts of Ireland than the South of East England,. As someone said will nature balance this out during the summer by giving us well belove average temperatures,courtesy of a north easterly. I would be surprised if we don't get well below average temperatures during the spring at some point. A cold period around st patricks day, perhaps?

pauldry · 16-02-2019 10:04pm

Maybe this year will be warm and next year cold!

Certainly the past few years Ive seen very few double digit temperatures in February.

But dont be fooled. It will be 14c and lashing rain in July because of this

Neddyusa · 17-02-2019 12:16am

Yep...have a bad feeling this year is shaping up like 2012. And even for a country that specialises in miserable summer weather, that one was exceptional!

nacho libre · 17-02-2019 12:20am

It's game on again towards the end of February, at least for parts of England, according to the Latest GFS. No doubt it will be gone again on the next run.

Gonzo · 17-02-2019 12:56am

nacho libre wrote: »

It's game on again towards the end of February, at least for parts of England, according to the Latest GFS. No doubt it will be gone again on the next run.

not sure if we're getting into serious territory first week of March but there is certainly a rapid cooling trend. The ensembles are going from the +5 to 10C range at 850hPA end of February to the -5 to -10C range at 850hPA range by end of first week of March. We will certainly need the heaters on and jumpers at the ready for March.

ens_image.php?geoid=64981&var=201&run=18&date=2019-02-16&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=

ens_image.php?geoid=64981&var=201&run=18&date=2019-02-16&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=

pad199207 · 17-02-2019 1:05am

Gonzo wrote: »

not sure if we're getting into serious territory first week of March but there is certainly a rapid cooling trend. The ensembles are going from the +5 to 10C range at 850hPA end of February to the -5 to -10C range at 850hPA range by end of first week of March. We will certainly need the heaters on and jumpers at the ready for March.

That will be a disaster. No other words for it.

sryanbruen · 17-02-2019 10:14am

ECM 0z was a bit of an outlier but damn it goes absolutely mental with those mild/warm 850hPa temps.

Donegal Storm · 17-02-2019 11:58am

Showing 14C 850hPa temps for the 27th, would be some contrast to that time last year!

Kermit.de.frog · 17-02-2019 12:17pm

No comparison.

-14 could be +14 850 temps this year

Gonzo · 17-02-2019 12:38pm

This is the sort of chart I really want to see from end of May to beginning to September but not in February. A waste of warmth that would be so much welcomed in the summer.

Cork Boy 53 · 17-02-2019 12:44pm

Any chance that these charts are wrong? After all it wasn't that long ago that some charts were showing that the country would be in a deep freeze by the end of February. I find it hard to imagine temperatures touching 20C in February.

Gonzo · 17-02-2019 12:47pm

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

Any chance that these charts are wrong? After all it wasn't that long ago that some charts were showing that the country would be in a deep freeze by the end of February.

There is alot of confidence and cross model agreement on this raging High Pressure setup. The Deep Freeze that failed had very little confidence and support away from those terrible long range models. It never really made it into the more reliable shorter range charts.

Meteorite58 · 17-02-2019 3:19pm

Just looking at the charts from the 24th out to the 27th , looks like we could get colder air sourced from Europe drawn into the Anticyclone in the lower levels. Would expect the charts to show higher temperatures but presently showing them in the low to mid teens. I suspect we could get an inversion layer with the 12C to 14C 850hPa temps being shown.

Donegal Storm · 17-02-2019 6:58pm

Gonzo wrote: »

This is the sort of chart I really want to see from end of May to beginning to September but not in February. A waste of warmth that would be so much welcomed in the summer.

It'll hopefully kick start some Spring growth though, would be nice to have a proper Spring this year after last years affair where it was late April before trees were in leaf

sryanbruen · 17-02-2019 8:23pm

Another very mild ECM 12z. The UK and Ireland having the mildest conditions on our latitude.

km79 · 18-02-2019 12:00am

Donegal Storm wrote: »

It'll hopefully kick start some Spring growth though, would be nice to have a proper Spring this year after last years affair where it was late April before trees were in leaf

Absolutely

Artane2002 · 19-02-2019 8:46pm

GFS Parallel is apparently going to become the GFS OP on March 20th. But it could be delayed because of a cold bias, which pretty much all of us model watchers know all about.

https://www.wired.com/story/the-governments-new-weather-model-faces-a-storm-of-protest/?mbid=social_twitter_onsiteshare

Gonzo · 22-02-2019 12:37am

looking chilly and unsettled towards end 1st week of March. I get the feeling March will not play out the same way as December-February as we lose this long run of exceptionally mild conditions.

Just for fun: could be some wintry conditions on high ground at least by the 7th. Even without any precipitation, this first week of March could feel very cold compared to the Winter heatwave of the coming weekend and into next week.

GFS Para looks a bit chilly on the 5th.

some of the lower resolutions gfs members also going for some chilly conditions in first week of March with the Jet going well to our south.

Very much to be taken with a pinch of salt, this is a long way out, but first week of March certainly looks to be turning more unsettled and certainly cooler than the current run of very mild conditions.

JCX BXC · 22-02-2019 12:40am

This is the time of winter where you hope the average bias persists. After early march there's rarely any use to cold snaps.

Meteorite58 · 22-02-2019 12:56am

ECM has been trending colder for the start of March also these last few runs . The Jet seems to go more S of us but may be temporary with the jet getting back to a more meridional type flow with alternating Atlantic type weather perhaps giving interludes of Cold NW'lys and deep LP's and associated cold and warm fronts .

Meteorite58 · 24-02-2019 1:01am

ECM had been showing some very active weather next weekend but completely dropped it on the 12Z run. An Outlier ?

GFS has been showing a very deep low too around next Sun /Mon now for a few runs. On the latest run it is bombing just off the W /NW down to 947 hPa .

The Jet looks very active close to / over Ireland that weekend according to the ECM / GFS .

Meteorite58 · 25-02-2019 9:34pm

ECM 12Z and previous run back showing a period of unsettled weather with wind and rain from the weekend, colder uppers also leading to convection giving hail and thunder and big convective gusts at times and with the sun getting stronger cells having a bit more power in them as we move into the Spring.

Maybe some wintry precipitation on high ground Sunday into Monday , thundery looking and cold day Sunday , blustery with windchill .

Birdnuts · 25-02-2019 11:47pm

Tonights ECM suggests "Payback Time" is at hand;)

FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 / 2019 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 / 2019 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST