FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 / 2019 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Neddyusa · 02-02-2019 10:02am

sryanbruen wrote: »

The same theme continues but ECM showed a blowtorch run this morning with Spring definitely arriving early in the second week of February. Low pressure systems getting pushed to the north by high pressure to the south drawing in long fetched southerly to southwesterly winds. Again very akin of February 1998.

First time since the start of winter that FI range charts have consistently shown anything other than cold blocked weather.....what odds they'll verify this time???

derekon · 02-02-2019 11:54am

sryanbruen wrote: »

Quick look at the latest output show the Scandinavian High signal has been weakened and depending on the model you look at is in various places including eastern Europe, northeastern Europe or Siberia.

GFS 12z shows relatively high pressure over northern Greenland, northeastern Europe as well as Canada. It later turns into a very mild setup in FI as winds veer southerly of something akin to that of the exceptionally mild spell of February 1998. Problem here is the lack of a Euro trough. Pressure is too high over Spain to allow the low pressure to dive south and force the blocking over Canada to link with the high to northeastern Europe.

ECM 12z just shows Atlantic depression after depression barrelling throughout its run and very unsettled.

Given the performance of the models this winter and based on that GFS 12z, I would think winter is now finally on the way........

D

Gonzo · 02-02-2019 12:50pm

the models are perfect runs for people who really want as mild as it can possibly get in February. We're talking about 14C, maybe even 15C in parts of Ireland and the UK if it was sunny, especially from yesterdays GFS and this mornings ECM. Its the exact opposite to a perfect cold run promising magic. That is why I don't really believe those charts.

This mornings GFS is certainly cooler than last nights crazy mild run, but still mostly milder than average temperatures right up to the 18th of February, no signs of any cold weather on the way for the foreseeable future, just a relentless continuation of the very dominant Atlantic.

I still think we will get a major shift in the next 2 weeks, leading to an easterly end of February or into early March, but it would probably be much more tame compared to what we had last March.

Meteorite58 · 02-02-2019 9:43pm

Lp after LP it would seem

TropicalTidbits

JCX BXC · 03-02-2019 1:43am

As if the heating bill wasn't large enough ðŸ˜

typhoony · 03-02-2019 6:32pm

a more mobile atlantic for the next 10 days, potential for a very stormy period mid-feb, as a consequence of another polar votex shunting very cold air into the west atlantic.

Nabber · 04-02-2019 12:17am

FI charts changing again, showing a 48 high lingering over Iceland

gfs-0-276.png?18

JCX BXC · 04-02-2019 12:20am

typhoony wrote: »

a more mobile atlantic for the next 10 days, potential for a very stormy period mid-feb, as a consequence of another polar votex shunting very cold air into the west atlantic.

A Stormy February would perhaps not be so bad, it's bound to happen, and February is probably a good month for it.

nacho libre · 04-02-2019 2:40am

5E6E90C7-06DE-4DD1-A57D-CACE09BA495C.png.e532c742167d2be1689b470c5da46dbf.png

GFS para teasing us again with a scandi high, which then heads for Greenland - not falling for it this time! It would be funny though if we did get a notable cold spell after the EC46 and UK Met Office flipped to a milder outlook.

Kermit.de.frog · 04-02-2019 5:11am

A chink of light on the UKMO. Slow down of momentum and heights building to our northwest.

UE144-21.GIF?04-05

compsys · 04-02-2019 10:08am

JCX BXC wrote: »

A Stormy February would perhaps not be so bad, it's bound to happen, and February is probably a good month for it.

Exactly.

We're overdue an Atlantic dominated, wet month.

Might as well get it over and done with in winter in February as opposed to April or May.

Monkeynut · 04-02-2019 10:24am

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

A chink of light on the UKMO. Slow down of momentum and heights building to our northwest.

Is there any similar charts for that date from the other models?

Artane2002 · 04-02-2019 10:37am

compsys wrote: »

Exactly.

We're overdue an Atlantic dominated, wet month.

Might as well get it over and done with in winter in February as opposed to April or May.

Um, November was Atlantic dominated and wet? We aren't really overdue. Personally, I'd actually prefer the muck in April because it wouldn't be ruining winter or summer.

pauldry · 04-02-2019 11:19am

GFS trending colder once more

Gonzo · 04-02-2019 11:20am

Monkeynut wrote: »

Is there any similar charts for that date from the other models?

the GFS is still updating, but is showing similar

hopefully will be much more interesting updates as we go through this week. For now there are just slight signs that something might happen into mid February.

Gonzo · 04-02-2019 1:39pm

still nothing exciting on the GFS but there are very faint signs. At the far reaches of FI, the GFS tries to get an easterly going, but it's sourced from a rather mild southerly track, so wouldn't be very cold. Way too far out to get excited, but at least it's better than the weekends charts which were endless mild.

Gonzo · 04-02-2019 1:49pm

just for fun. This GFS P08 run gets the high going over Greenland and some cold easterlys, however this is out on it's own, so not well supported.

Nabber · 04-02-2019 4:12pm

We have the best FI charts. Our reality is different.

gfs-0-384.png?6

sryanbruen · 04-02-2019 4:43pm

Nabber wrote: »

We have the best FI charts. Our reality is different.

Not really a great chart there for cold/snow. The air is not overly cold and pressure is too high for snow.

Models very significantly supporting a mild signal right now.

Gonzo · 04-02-2019 5:44pm

most likely after next week, high pressure is showing up on alot of the models, the eventual placement of the high could change things between very mild or cold. Certainly the next 1 to 2 weeks are looking very mild.

Donegal Storm · 04-02-2019 7:30pm

Artane2002 wrote: »

Um, November was Atlantic dominated and wet? We aren't really overdue. Personally, I'd actually prefer the muck in April because it wouldn't be ruining winter or summer.

The Atlantic typically runs out of steam around late March or April most years, it's been fairly quiet for 2 months now so by our usual standards I'd say we are overdue

I'd take a month of crap mild weather now if it lead to a nice cool and bright April. Been years since we had a good 'April Showers' month with great skyscapes and thundery hail showers

nacho libre · 06-02-2019 12:18am

When you are in need of straws to clutch, you can always rely on the CFS:D

Monkeynut · 06-02-2019 12:21am

nacho libre wrote: »

When you are in need of straws to clutch, you can always rely on the CFS:D

I'm just gone to bed, nice and warm, but that chart makes me feel cold. Ahh well, at least it's a dream.

Gonzo · 06-02-2019 3:11am

some of tonights GFS members are having a laugh and hinting easterlys, but they are nothing more than a dream, because in the morning these charts will be already gone.

highdef · 06-02-2019 7:29am

Gonzo wrote: »

some of tonights GFS members are having a laugh and hinting easterlys, but they are nothing more than a dream, because in the morning these charts will be already gone.

I'm loving your reverse psychology there

Artane2002 · 06-02-2019 9:34am

For what it's worth, there was 43% support for an easterly in the ECM ensembles last night. I don't believe it will happen because winter 2018-19 says no.

Gonzo · 06-02-2019 12:39pm

highdef wrote: »

I'm loving your reverse psychology there

sadly it didn't work out, as expected those charts are now vanished and replaced by more mild runs.

hatrickpatrick · 06-02-2019 4:01pm

ECM 0z could be a lot worse, showing Scandi high potential:

ECH1-240.GIF?06-12

Marengo · 07-02-2019 12:32am

I wouldn't be surprised if the models got it right, finally, for late Feb/early March. The late winter snap.

hatrickpatrick · 07-02-2019 2:10am

VERY nice GFS 18z tonight with scandi heights building from 180h and a potential route to Greenland heights towards the end of the run - the 0z will be very interesting viewing indeed.

The ECM 12z is showing a reasonably similar evolution in its later frames, which has been unusual lately with good runs of either model - let's see if we can maintain this overnight!

Gonzo · 07-02-2019 12:40pm

starting to trend cooler from about the 18th of February. Hopefully we may start to see something interesting develop over the next week. There is still time for final week of February to deliver a decent spell.

pauldry · 07-02-2019 1:12pm

Im confident there will be one more cold spell

It usually comes last week Feb start of March

Very mild GFS though today with temperatures in the teens before that

hatrickpatrick · 07-02-2019 1:58pm

The 0z last night still showed the Scandi heights slowly evolving towards Greenland; 6z has the block centred over us in FI instead but crucially it does still have the block. 0z ECM still shows the Scandi high building from 168h, being pushed away by a strong jet stream low - but still trying to edge around and North of it towards Greenie in its last frame.

Personally I'm still feeling it. A dodgy 6z isn't enough to bring me down unless the 12z verifies it in a couple of hours

Will do some chart gifs once the 12z is published, unless it downgrades the lot of them.

Gonzo · 07-02-2019 2:58pm

this mornings GFS has a very cold plunge around the 21st of February from Siberia pushing south-westwards into central Europe, then France and north-east Spain. It narrowly misses the UK with high pressure in control over Ireland and most of the UK.

It wouldn't take much of a change to push this into the UK and a bit more than a push to get it into Ireland. Hopefully the models will stick with this and luck makes this a reality, but it is still 2 weeks away.

Gonzo · 07-02-2019 3:29pm

several of the lower resolution GFS members are also having a go at bringing cold air near us after the 20th.

Definitely signs that changes could be coming into the final 10 days of February.

Fingers crossed charts will build on these over the next week with a better run for Ireland and cross model agreement developing. It's been a rough winter, we deserve at least a few days of fun before Spring.

Nabber · 07-02-2019 9:47pm

This is FI, it's not meant to be reality. There's been more chat in here that charts.
Some people just wanna see weather chart porn.

Villain · 07-02-2019 9:59pm

AO and NAO today

https://twitter.com/CarlowWeather/status/1093582238653038593

hatrickpatrick · 07-02-2019 10:16pm

ECM 12z continues building the Scandi high, getting closer to the reliable timeframe:

Question for those more knowledgable (Sryan, where art thou?) - in the final frames of this run, you can see the Scandi heights trying to slip Eastward towards Iceland and Greenland, but at the same time a large depression embedded in the jet stream is moving Westward. It looks to me like the higher pressures will try to "wrap around" the low, to its North - in this scenario, who "wins"? Does the jet stream ultimately overpower the heights to the North, or could we see the heights slipping above it, becoming more established once that low moves on?

nacho libre · 07-02-2019 10:55pm

Gonzo wrote: »

this mornings GFS has a very cold plunge around the 21st of February from Siberia pushing south-westwards into central Europe, then France and north-east Spain. It narrowly misses the UK with high pressure in control over Ireland and most of the UK.

It wouldn't take much of a change to push this into the UK and a bit more than a push to get it into Ireland. Hopefully the models will stick with this and luck makes this a reality, but it is still 2 weeks away.

According to the UKMO office long range it won't- it would be sod's law, after predicting cold weather for months on end, that as soon as they flip to a milder, unsettled outlook to end February, it pans out like that.

sicknotexi · 07-02-2019 11:27pm

nacho libre wrote: »

According to the UKMO office long range it won't- it would be sod's law, after predicting cold weather for months on end, that as soon as they flip to a milder, unsettled outlook to end February, it pans out like that.

Well they did state there's still a low chance of an easterly so not completely out of the question, though I do acknowledge they have downgraded significantly from this time last week.

red_bairn · 08-02-2019 12:16am

sicknotexi wrote: »

Well they did state there's still a low chance of an easterly so not completely out of the question, though I do acknowledge they have downgraded significantly from this time last week.

JanuarySnowstor · 08-02-2019 12:42am

They're forecasting this year has been very poor as has been every other weather guru!! It's been a while since almost every lrf has been way off the reality

sryanbruen · 08-02-2019 1:15am

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

ECM 12z continues building the Scandi high, getting closer to the reliable timeframe:

Question for those more knowledgable (Sryan, where art thou?) - in the final frames of this run, you can see the Scandi heights trying to slip Eastward towards Iceland and Greenland, but at the same time a large depression embedded in the jet stream is moving Westward. It looks to me like the higher pressures will try to "wrap around" the low, to its North - in this scenario, who "wins"? Does the jet stream ultimately overpower the heights to the North, or could we see the heights slipping above it, becoming more established once that low moves on?

I'll let my amateur graphic explain (cannot see the position of the low on scenario #2 due to the map used). Don't mind the stay tuned for updates on the Twitter page part

: .

A significant shift in the AO forecast towards negative during the second half of February. NAO meanwhile is forecast to go to neutral - maybe a start of a trend towards negative? Equally, it could go back positive after the drop to neutral. You just do not know.

As always, wait and see :rolleyes: .

Gonzo · 08-02-2019 12:46pm

GFS has been slowly but surely trying to tease easterly's in FI over the past few days. This mornings GFS run has us in a cold easterly by 20th of February. I would really like to see this develop and upgrade over the next week to 10 days.

nacho libre · 08-02-2019 2:11pm

There are tenative signs that the MJO may go to phase 8, if so that could mean the door opens up for blocking to our north west from any scandi high that develops. It's an outside chance for now.

However if it does turn out to be a cold end to February, kudos to yansno for predicting it a few weeks back.

Gonzo · 08-02-2019 2:37pm

here is this mornings GFS ensembles for Dublin. You can see the thick green line is the GFS operational run, it's kinda on it's own for now with the cold spell. However there is a definite cooling trend kicking from about the 16th of February. We may lose the easterly on the next GFS run and perhaps have it back again on a later run.

ens_image.php?geoid=64981&var=201&run=6&date=2019-02-08&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=

ens_image.php?geoid=64981&var=201&run=6&date=2019-02-08&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=

The next 3 days will be very important model watching to see if this cooling trend into a potential easterly has any realistic chance of happening. The ensembles have also turned a good deal dryer overall for Dublin compared to what was being modeled a few days ago.

highdef · 08-02-2019 2:47pm

I'm getting (Invalid img) where your chart should be.

Gonzo · 08-02-2019 2:51pm

highdef wrote: »

I'm getting (Invalid img) where your chart should be.

that's odd, I've looked at this post from several different devices and it's showing up grand on them all.

sryanbruen · 08-02-2019 2:52pm

Gonzo wrote: »

that's odd, I've looked at this post from several different devices and it's showing up grand on them all.

It's fine for me.

nacho libre · 08-02-2019 3:09pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

It's fine for me.

Works for me too.

FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 / 2019 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 / 2019 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST