Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

JW7 · 15-02-2021 1:08pm

EI to Manchester yesterday, 140 on board
130 of them transiting from the Dubai flight that morning.

PommieBast · 15-02-2021 1:14pm

Tenger wrote: »

Some of those 54 no shows may have reassessed their plans and will travel later. Many may have rebooked via LHR or MAN to enter Scotland by land.
Another reason to have a 2 island solution, with mandatory quarantine.

I think quarantine is supposed to be booked in advance, which would have caught a lot of them. 6/50 to me sounds like the proportion of people who keep their ear very close to the ground for all the short-notice changes.

Wonder if flying over to the UK to get the jab would count as "essential", because it looks like what I will end up doing. Those flights to Tenerife for dental appointments were taking the p..

Tenger · 15-02-2021 1:23pm

JW7 wrote: »

EI to Manchester yesterday, 140 on board
130 of them transiting from the Dubai flight that morning.

As in DXB-DUB-MAN?
Maybe DXB-MAN isn't operating daily?

PommieBast wrote: »

..........
Wonder if flying over to the UK to get the jab would count as "essential", because it looks like what I will end up doing.

I think it should. After all it is travel for a medical procedure.
Can you organise it to get the jab in N.I.?

goingnowhere · 15-02-2021 1:50pm

UK has banned flights from UAE so the back door is being used.

Good business if you can get it, UK imposed full hotel quarantine this morning so lot of people rushing to get back, can't see that going wrong in anyway.

And if you can somehow get an appointment for vaccination in NI then its a medical procedure by appointment and no restriction on movement, same going to the UK, getting back though could be a problem

Tenger · 15-02-2021 2:27pm

goingnowhere wrote: »

UK has banned flights from UAE so the back door is being used

Precisely why we need quarantine here as well.
A 2 island solution is needed.

goingnowhere · 15-02-2021 2:54pm

Transit passengers are going to be excused in most circumstances.

The real question is how many declared in MAN to have come from the UAE. If they through checked the luggage they are caught as the labels will be white/orange strip, not white/green as we use in EU. Otherwise if they are smart enough to present only a drivers license...

JW7 · 15-02-2021 3:07pm

Tenger wrote: »

As in DXB-DUB-MAN?
Maybe DXB-MAN isn't operating daily?

I think it should. After all it is travel for a medical procedure.
Can you organise it to get the jab in N.I.?

EI Dub-Man

PommieBast · 15-02-2021 3:25pm

goingnowhere wrote: »

Good business if you can get it, UK imposed full hotel quarantine this morning so lot of people rushing to get back, can't see that going wrong in anyway.

Part of the problem is using £100-200 per night hotels and expecting the "guests" to pay for it.

15-02-2021 3:31pm

PommieBast wrote: »

Part of the problem is using £100-200 per night hotels and expecting the "guests" to pay for it.

You want the taxpayer to pay for someone's hotel stay?

Or someone else?

Tenger · 15-02-2021 4:28pm

PommieBast wrote: »

Part of the problem is using £100-200 per night hotels and expecting the "guests" to pay for it.

I see this as less of a problem than politely asking people to restrict their movements out of a sense of concern for others.

PommieBast · 15-02-2021 4:59pm

Deleted User wrote: »

You want the taxpayer to pay for someone's hotel stay?

Or someone else?

For that price? Yes. They should have used cheaper hotels.

Tenger wrote: »

I see this as less of a problem than politely asking people to restrict their movements out of a sense of concern for others.

The problem was that they never bothered checking on people. Not even a phone call. :mad:

LXFlyer · 15-02-2021 5:03pm

PommieBast wrote: »

For that price? Yes. They should have used cheaper hotels.

Don't you think that is part of the strategy to discourage travel?

Tenger · 15-02-2021 6:02pm

PommieBast wrote: »

The problem was that they never bothered checking on people. Not even a phone call. :mad:

It's been reported that they had capacity issues. So, yes they did make calls. Just not enough to get every arrival.

To my mind they should have recruited far far more contact tracers from the industries who were shut down.

basill · 15-02-2021 9:29pm

Tenger wrote: »

It's been reported that they had capacity issues. So, yes they did make calls. Just not enough to get every arrival.

To my mind they should have recruited far far more contact tracers from the industries who were shut down.

Cabin crew across Europe were used in many roles such as contact tracing and primary care in the early stages but not here. Also being used as first aid trained to help out with vaccinations. But I think this would only highlight how little vaccine the Irish government has which is why its a softly softly approach. Probably same reason for why each and every chemist isn't jabbing.

Tenger · 15-02-2021 10:39pm

It's not vaccination but 2 cabin crew who I know got work in Covid-19 test centres.
Neither of them has any work from their actual employer so 3-4 shifts a week in the centre filling in paperwork gives them some sense of helping out.

Noxegon · 16-02-2021 12:25am

Tenger wrote: »

It's been reported that they had capacity issues. So, yes they did make calls. Just not enough to get every arrival.

It would be interesting to know what percentage of arrivals they spoke to. I travelled in July and September last year - and I isolated for two weeks afterwards on both occasions. I wasn’t called after either trip.

Tenger · 16-02-2021 11:06am

Noxegon wrote: »

It would be interesting to know what percentage of arrivals they spoke to. I travelled in July and September last year - and I isolated for two weeks afterwards on both occasions. I wasn’t called after either trip.

I recall reading a article about. I think their capacity was 1500 a day, which is pretty paltry in my opinion.

bk · 16-02-2021 1:05pm

basill wrote: »

Cabin crew across Europe were used in many roles such as contact tracing and primary care in the early stages but not here. Also being used as first aid trained to help out with vaccinations. But I think this would only highlight how little vaccine the Irish government has which is why its a softly softly approach. Probably same reason for why each and every chemist isn't jabbing.

Err.. Ireland is getting the exact same amount of vaccines as every other EU country (proportional to population of course).

In terms of rollout of vaccine, we are currently above the EU average, in 9th position. We are actually quiet a bit ahead big countries like Germany, France, Italy, etc.

We were like 3rd in the EU last week, but the decision not to use the Astrazenca/Oxford vaccine in over 65 year olds slowed the planned rollout down a bit last week versus countries that have gone ahead using it on over 65's.

That is a safety issue and given the data currently available the right decision for now. It shouldn't be a big issue, it will only slow things down a week or two and over 65's will get the more effective Pfizer/Biontech vaccine, while the Oxford one will still get used, just for different groups then originally planned.

As to your point in using cabin crew to vaccinate. Being trained in first aid isn't enough training to vaccinate people, you need extra training to do that.

But it isn't really necessary now, the bottleneck continues to be manufacturing of the vaccines, not trained vaccinators. We have over 6,000 vaccinators, but we averaging about 7,000 vaccines a day. So as you can see, the issue isn't people, but the amount of vaccines we have.

I'd expect vaccination rates to really pick up next month as the Oxford vaccine is distributed widely through GP's and pharmacies.

In other good Vaccine news:

- Pfizer opened their new factory in Germany and it has produced it's first doses. Pfizer has also partnered with Sanofi to use their factories to produce another 125 million doses.

- The J&J vaccine, a single dose one, came out with very good looking results (better then Oxford, not as good as the mRNA ones) and looks like it will get EMA authorization in a couple of weeks.

- The Novavox vaccine showed very good interim results, almost as good as the mRNA ones and that includes testing against both the UK variant and the South African one. They are expecting to finish their trial in a few weeks and get authorization soon after. The good news about this one was that it was tested against the new variants.

kona · 16-02-2021 1:11pm

bk wrote: »

As to your point in using cabin crew to vaccinate. Being trained in first aid isn't enough training to vaccinate people, you need extra training to do that.
.

Realistically how much training is really needed,?
go walk through dublin 8 and there are plenty of lads and ladies who have plenty of experience with using needles who seem to manage fine...

bk · 16-02-2021 1:19pm

kona wrote: »

Realistically how much training is really needed,?
go walk through dublin 8 and there are plenty of lads and ladies who have plenty of experience with using needles who seem to manage fine...

Ughhh... In case you are serious, it is more to do with dealing with possible side effects, in particular anaphylactic shock.

Anyway, as I mentioned, they simply aren't needed. Between GP's, nurses, pharmacists, school vaccinators and Ambulance crews / Firefighters, they have plenty of people to do it.

Where they could perhaps use other people is simply around the organisation and administration, checking people in, taking details, filling in forms, etc. Free up the actual medical staff to focus on just the medical side.

And contact tracers and possibly Covid testers. Some medical staff have been doing these jobs, they'll want to put them on the vaccination drive now and have others do those jobs instead.

Jack1985 · 16-02-2021 1:52pm

bk wrote: »

Ughhh... In case you are serious, it is more to do with dealing with possible side effects, in particular anaphylactic shock.

Anyway, as I mentioned, they simply aren't needed. Between GP's, nurses, pharmacists, school vaccinators and Ambulance crews / Firefighters, they have plenty of people to do it.

Where they could perhaps use other people is simply around the organisation and administration, checking people in, taking details, filling in forms, etc. Free up the actual medical staff to focus on just the medical side.

And contact tracers and possibly Covid testers. Some medical staff have been doing these jobs, they'll want to put them on the vaccination drive now and have others do those jobs instead.

You are talking with sense though and for that reason I don't see any of it happening despite the Gov paying these people to stay at home.

kona · 16-02-2021 2:54pm

bk wrote: »

Ughhh... In case you are serious, it is more to do with dealing with possible side effects, in particular anaphylactic shock.

Anyway, as I mentioned, they simply aren't needed. Between GP's, nurses, pharmacists, school vaccinators and Ambulance crews / Firefighters, they have plenty of people to do it.

Where they could perhaps use other people is simply around the organisation and administration, checking people in, taking details, filling in forms, etc. Free up the actual medical staff to focus on just the medical side.

And contact tracers and possibly Covid testers. Some medical staff have been doing these jobs, they'll want to put them on the vaccination drive now and have others do those jobs instead.

Im not serious about getting junkies to do it, but I am serious about how much they realistically need to be trained.
Nurses and doctors are better deployed elsewhere.

So in a vaccination centre would all of the people administering vaccines be trained in what to do with this shock or would there be designated people who would take over?

I find the notion that you need to have a massive amount of training to administer what is a jab in the arm crazy in this particular situation.

bk · 16-02-2021 5:37pm

kona wrote: »

Im not serious about getting junkies to do it, but I am serious about how much they realistically need to be trained.
Nurses and doctors are better deployed elsewhere.

So in a vaccination centre would all of the people administering vaccines be trained in what to do with this shock or would there be designated people who would take over?

I find the notion that you need to have a massive amount of training to administer what is a jab in the arm crazy in this particular situation.

Being first aid trained does not mean you are medical professional or have the skills to vaccinate. To be clear, it would be illegal for them to vaccinate people.

In order to vaccinate, you need to be trained to administer intramuscular injections and PHECC registered practitioner. There are about 5,500 people, mostly paramedics with Dublin Fire brigade and the National Ambulance service, but also volunteers in the likes of St John's Ambulance service and Physios.

Of course these are in addition to Doctors, nurses and pharmacists.

I honestly can't believe I'm having this conversation in an airline forum. I would hope most people in the airline industry would understand the need for proper training and certification. This suggestion is the equivalent of someone saying couldn't a 737 pilot just jump in the cockpit of a A350 and fly it without a type rating!

If cabin crew are interested in helping out, fantastic, then they could volunteer with the likes of St John's Ambulance, Red Cross, etc. and get the required training and register with PHECC. I'm sure they would be delighted to get new volunteers with first aid training and the help would be greatly appreciated.

But it is important that this is all done properly, we will have enough issues with anti-vaxxer folks without giving them ammo by having untrained and unregistered folks carrying out vaccinations!

BTW as an aside, the fact that most fire fighters with Dublin Fire brigade are trained and experienced paramedics is a large and great resource to help out with this.

But this conversation is all largely pointless as for now we have more people who can vaccinate, then we do vaccines.

Tenger · 16-02-2021 5:56pm

As someone who is first aid trained I would guess that using my experience would be better employed monitoring those people who have just be3n vaccinated, compiling the paperwork and assisting the actual medical staff.

But as stated above among all our resources we already have 1000s of trained people to actually administer the vaccines.

bk · 16-02-2021 5:56pm

Here is the training that a Pharmacist needs to get to do the Pfizer/Moderna vaccines in a vaccination center as part of a larger vaccination team (including Doctors, etc. to assist):

https://www.thepsi.ie/tns/news/Coronavirus/InformationforPharmacistsCOVID.aspx

It includes them having to do 5 separate training courses and that is for an experienced Pharmacist!

kona · 16-02-2021 9:24pm

bk wrote: »

I honestly can't believe I'm having this conversation in an airline forum. I would hope most people in the airline industry would understand the need for proper training and certification. This suggestion is the equivalent of someone saying couldn't a 737 pilot just jump in the cockpit of a A350 and fly it without a type rating!

You would be very suprised at some aspects of aviation and approvals the 737max would be one example.
My suggestion is not like saying a 737 pilot could jump into a a350 and fly it without a type. Its more like saying why cant a person who already has training, not be given a specific course to just administer vaccines.

Doctors, nurses, firemen, paramedics all have better things to be doing than jabbing the entire population. Having a team of maybe 20 trained people overseen by a fully trained doctor to supervise and run a centre would be a better use of resources.

donkey balls · 17-02-2021 12:27am

PHECC is the independent statuary body for pre hospital care, Akin to the nurses doctors bodies etc. It oversees the clinical training and examinations of EMT Paramedics and advance Paramedics.
As one of the above I have being contacted about the roll out of the vaccination programme along with other medical personnel from other backgrounds(Midwife pharmacists &physio)
Unfortunately no one below the grades above can administer an IM injection and must be currently registered with their practising body.

Noxegon · 17-02-2021 9:03am

donkey balls wrote: »

PHECC is the independent statuary body for pre hospital care.

What a wonderful acronym.

donkey balls · 17-02-2021 10:05am

Sure is when I first started training 10 years ago people said is the person who came up with the name a Father Ted fan, On a more serious note the e mail i received regarding the vaccinations are for the recruitment in the Greater Dublin area and surrounding counties.
Hopefully they get the ball rolling and get people back to normality.

plodder · 19-02-2021 1:51pm

Kieran Cuddihy was talking to a furloughed airline pilot on "The hard shoulder" on Newstalk yesterday evening about the difficulties in keeping ratings current and how pilots are working other jobs to make ends meet etc. If anyone is interested, it's on their website.

PommieBast · 19-02-2021 3:47pm

plodder wrote: »

Kieran Cuddihy was talking to a furloughed airline pilot on "The hard shoulder" on Newstalk yesterday evening about the difficulties in keeping ratings current and how pilots are working other jobs to make ends meet etc. If anyone is interested, it's on their website.

Bit of a tangent but I have wondered what that does to the business case of the 737 Max, which basically hinged on not needing type rating training..

plodder · 19-02-2021 4:46pm

PommieBast wrote: »

Bit of a tangent but I have wondered what that does to the business case of the 737 Max, which basically hinged on not needing type rating training..

I presume you'd still need to keep the NG(?) rating current and with the same limited amount of flying time. So, not sure what difference it makes.

Tenger · 25-02-2021 8:53pm

IT article about Norwegian. They had 80 Airbus ordered. They have lost the deposits and have to pay 700K, presumably as a fine/cancellation fee.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/transport-and-tourism/norwegian-air-shuttle-nears-agreement-to-end-jet-deliveries-from-airbus-1.4494036?mode=amp

"The troubled Scandinavian carrier and four Irish subsidiaries have High Court protection from creditors................
.......... the airline had agreed terms of a consent order to cancel an order for 88 Airbus aircraft.
Under those terms, the European aerospace giant will keep pre-payments while NAS will pay it a further €700,000.
The order included 30 Airbus A321 long-range aircraft. NAS is axing its long-haul business to focus on Scandinavia and the rest of Europe as part of its restructuring"

I'm sure those 30 slots will be eagerly snapped up. IAG would be a likely customer as they want/need them AND have liquidity to do so.

L1011 · 25-02-2021 8:55pm

Better to have a cleaner, realistic order book

25-02-2021 9:31pm

Tenger wrote: »

I'm sure those 30 slots will be eagerly snapped up. IAG would be a likely customer as they want/need them AND have liquidity to do so.

I don't agree with that at all. With IAG having an LOI on 737 Maxes and so many lease companies having too many airframes with no customers the last thing IAG should be doing is looking eager and approaching Airbus. They can even re-negotiate current leases downwards because the lease companies are in such a tight spot.
Airbus will have to be put in a position where they are begging to even be allowed give a quote.

john boye · 26-02-2021 1:49am

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I don't agree with that at all. With IAG having an LOI on 737 Maxes and so many lease companies having too many airframes with no customers the last thing IAG should be doing is looking eager and approaching Airbus. They can even re-negotiate current leases downwards because the lease companies are in such a tight spot.
Airbus will have to be put in a position where they are begging to even be allowed give a quote.

That LOI for the max is almost 2 years old. At what point do we just accept that it'll never happen?

26-02-2021 9:24am

john boye wrote: »

That LOI for the max is almost 2 years old. At what point do we just accept that it'll never happen?

when it stops being an effective negotiating tool.

L1011 · 26-02-2021 10:17am

It's not an effective negotiating tool when the other side know it's a sham.

26-02-2021 11:12am

A 737Max may be less desirable than a Neo but the economics are similar and a mixed fleet operation like IAG could easily introduce them in to their operations so it isn't a sham but Airbus would be more realistically worried about the many hundreds of Airbus planes which are already in existence seeking new homes.

Chris_5339762 · 26-02-2021 2:22pm

Cork Airport have announced a twice-weekly flight to Frankfurt with Lufthansa beginning this summer. This is huge for Cork, as this now links Cork directly in with Lufthansas entire network.

Yes, Covid and all that, I still don't think Tony et al will let us fly this summer but it proves the interest is there and if not this summer, then next summer. Zurich (with Swiss) is available for this summer too.

It leads weight to my own theory that there will be a massive recovery in flight when all this is over, as everyone will hop on the nearest plane to somewhere, anywhere. Whether that is this year or next.

Tenger · 26-02-2021 2:46pm

[Deleted User] wrote: »

when it stops being an effective negotiating tool.

I don't think that LOI is really effective when it's specifically the A321LR in discussion here.
IAG already have A321LRs on order.
This may be an opportunity to expedite production/delivery.

While the leasing companies certainly have too many availible aircraft at the moment those are probably not going to be A321LRs.

billy few mates · 27-02-2021 7:37am

Tenger wrote: »

I don't think that LOI is really effective when it's specifically the A321LR in discussion here.
IAG already have A321LRs on order.
This may be an opportunity to expedite production/delivery.

While the leasing companies certainly have too many availible aircraft at the moment those are probably not going to be A321LRs.

Even if they were A321LRs they'd end up with a pick n 'mix layout of interior specs, seats, lavs and galleys etc if they started sweeping up spare aircraft from leasing companies. These would all have to be modified to their own spec or this time next year you'd have people on here moaning that they ended up on EI-xyz like they did with the odd ball A330s they had a couple of years ago.
Better to use this crisis to get a better deal from Airbus to provide aircraft that already meets their requirements.

donkey balls · 27-02-2021 12:27pm

1000 job losses FFS as if things are not bad enough as it is, A lad that lives around the corner from me both him and the missis work at EI must be devastating for a lot of EI employees were both incomes rely on the airline.

"Aer Lingus job cut total to exceed previously stated 500 target" https://www.irishexaminer.com/business/companies/arid-40234475.html?type=amp

AnRothar · 27-02-2021 12:56pm

donkey balls wrote: »

1000 job losses FFS as if things are not bad enough as it is, A lad that lives around the corner from me both him and the missis work at EI must be devastating for a lot of EI employees were both incomes rely on the airline.

"Aer Lingus job cut total to exceed previously stated 500 target" https://www.irishexaminer.com/business/companies/arid-40234475.html?type=amp

A point of clarification is needed.

From the article I took the following.
More than the initial 500 jobs will be lost.
The 1000 figure includes "planned" future recruitment such is not needed as a consequence of the pandemic .

A bit of deliberate inclusion of non relevant information to support a narative.

MrMusician18 · 27-02-2021 3:06pm

donkey balls wrote: »

1000 job losses FFS as if things are not bad enough as it is, A lad that lives around the corner from me both him and the missis work at EI must be devastating for a lot of EI employees were both incomes rely on the airline.

"Aer Lingus job cut total to exceed previously stated 500 target" https://www.irishexaminer.com/business/companies/arid-40234475.html?type=amp

I have to say the Examiners reporting of C19 has raised my eyebrow on more than one occasion. This headline for example: is anyone really surprised that AL will not be taking on 500 new staff whilst letting 500 go at the same time? Did the Examiner report that no net job losses before this revelation?

HTCOne · 27-02-2021 4:52pm

€563 million loss is a staggering figure.

Van.Bosch · 27-02-2021 8:09pm

Chris_5339762 wrote: »

Cork Airport have announced a twice-weekly flight to Frankfurt with Lufthansa beginning this summer. This is huge for Cork, as this now links Cork directly in with Lufthansas entire network.

Yes, Covid and all that, I still don't think Tony et al will let us fly this summer but it proves the interest is there and if not this summer, then next summer. Zurich (with Swiss) is available for this summer too.

It leads weight to my own theory that there will be a massive recovery in flight when all this is over, as everyone will hop on the nearest plane to somewhere, anywhere. Whether that is this year or next.

Great news for Cork, twice a week can be upped if demand is there. LH must have seen good numbers re the Swiss service.

basill · 27-02-2021 9:44pm

Many of the cabin crew and ground staff (gate and checkin) are "retained" on what EI calls temporary seasonal contracts. Have even heard them mention temporary permanent which is a contradiction in itself but there you go. The upshot is EI will roll over the contracts as long as the law will allow them before they are forced to offer permanent work. It would not be difficult to imagine the type of environment this creates for these poor people who bend over backwards to appease their masters in the hope of being taken on. Of course whilst being temporary the banks don't want to know you. During the winter they are invariably let go but if someone got the numbers wrong can and are called back. Its an utterly horrible (but sadly legal) way to treat anyone and it will be these people that will bear the brunt of the job losses announced.

donkey balls · 28-02-2021 4:12pm

basill wrote: »

Many of the cabin crew and ground staff (gate and checkin) are "retained" on what EI calls temporary seasonal contracts. Have even heard them mention temporary permanent which is a contradiction in itself but there you go. The upshot is EI will roll over the contracts as long as the law will allow them before they are forced to offer permanent work. It would not be difficult to imagine the type of environment this creates for these poor people who bend over backwards to appease their masters in the hope of being taken on. Of course whilst being temporary the banks don't want to know you. During the winter they are invariably let go but if someone got the numbers wrong can and are called back. Its an utterly horrible (but sadly legal) way to treat anyone and it will be these people that will bear the brunt of the job losses announced.

It's a sh*t show at present if I was in that situation they are in now I be looking elsewhere for work or up skill.

gral6 · 05-03-2021 12:31pm

So, Ryanair announces eight new routes for Belfast City Airport from this summer.
The CEO of Belfast City Airport, Brian Ambrose, described the new routes as “excellent news” for Northern Ireland.

“Travel has been significantly restricted over the last 12 months and as the vaccine rollout continues at pace and the restrictions ease, we expect there will be considerable demand for these routes, and we look forward to welcoming Ryanair customers through the terminal,” Ambrose said.

In the meantime, travel from Ireland has been heavily demonized by gov and useless Irish media.
Guess what future awaits for Dublin airport?

Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

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