Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

Monday, 2 September, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 2 to 8 September 2019

-- Temperatures will average near normal values.
-- Rainfall will also be close to average in the west and north, to perhaps 50% in parts of the east and south.
-- Sunshine will range from 75% of normal in the west and north to near normal values in the east and south.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be breezy, mostly cloudy and a few outbreaks of light rain will occur mostly in northern counties. Highs 17 to 20 C.

TONIGHT will be partly to mostly cloudy with a few light showers and lows near 12 C.

TUESDAY will be partly cloudy, breezy and a bit warmer with further showers in parts of the north mostly, but occasionally spreading into central counties also. Highs 18 to 22 C.

WEDNESDAY will be brisk and cool with strong northwest to north winds especially near exposed coasts around Ulster and north Connacht. Lows near 7 C and highs 14 to 17 C, a few passing showers in all areas, with hail over parts of the north.

THURSDAY will become more settled and warmer again with some sunny breaks and highs closer to 20 C.

FRIDAY will be cloudy with outbreaks of light rain in the north, highs near 19 C.

The weather will remain somewhat unsettled although not far from average in most regards for the second week of September.

My local weather on Sunday was sunny with afternoon cloudy intervals, and warm with highs near 25 C. Dorian meanwhile remains a powerful hurricane moving very slowly west across the northern Bahamas, and models continue to suggest it will curve to the north soon, but Florida residents are quite nervous watching this powerful storm inching closer to their east coast. Any severe impacts are more likely to be further north than Cape Canaveral due to the slowly converging track but even there it could recurve just in time to reduce the impacts to more moderate, and the same scenario would then play out further north around mid week. This storm could also make a landfall in eastern New England or eastern Canada by Friday or the weekend.

Tuesday, 3 September, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 3 to 9 September 2019

-- Temperatures will be near normal values.
-- Rainfall will be slightly above normal in parts of the west and north, but 50 to 75 per cent of normal in south and east.
-- Sunshine will be close to average also.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy with a few breaks in the south and east, occasional light rain or drizzle at times in north and west, and eventually spreading to other areas. Moderate westerly breezes, rather humid with highs 18 to 20 C.

TONIGHT will be overcast with light rain at times, lows near 12 C.

WEDNESDAY will become partly cloudy, breezy and cool, with some strong northwest gusts at times near exposed Atlantic coasts (in general winds 50-70 km/hr). Highs 13 to 16 C, a few showers with hail possible.

THURSDAY will be mostly dry, although rather cloudy, with some outbreaks of light rain or drizzle further north. Highs 18 to 20 C.

FRIDAY and next WEEKEND will be generally settled with near normal temperatures, some sun each day and just a few isolated showers, with highs near 20 C.

My local weather on Monday was sunny and pleasant with highs near 24 C. Dorian as expected has moved very little in the past day and is just edging northwest away from Grand Bahama Island, however, it has weakened by at least two categories over the day and may soon be only a cat-2 hurricane moving slowly north about 50-100 miles east of the Florida coast. Impacts on Florida and the southeastern U.S. coasts will be moderate and mostly confined to rising water levels, with moderate northerly wind gusts at times, if the forecast scenario plays out. A more damaging storm risk may actually exist at the end of the week in eastern Nova Scotia if and when the remnant low moves inland there.

Thursday, 5 September, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 5 to 11 September, 2019

-- Temperatures will be near normal values to about one degree above normal in some parts of the east.
-- Rainfall will be 25 to 50 per cent of normal, driest in parts of the east and south.
-- Sunshine will be 25 to 50 per cent above normal, higher values in the east.


FORECASTS

TODAY will become partly cloudy with more cloud in the north at times, followed by outbreaks of light rain by evening mostly in the northwest. A bit warmer again with highs 18 to 20 C. Rather breezy at times from a westerly direction.

TONIGHT will be mostly cloudy with outbreaks of light rain, 2 to 5 mm on average, and moderate westerly winds 40 to 60 km/hr. Lows will be about 10 C.

FRIDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with showers ending from west to east in the morning, and a slow clearing trend later, winds moderating during the day, with highs 16 to 19 C.

SATURDAY looks pleasant with sunny intervals and light winds, lows near 7 C and highs near 19 C. There could be isolated brief showers in eastern Connacht and south Ulster.

SUNDAY will have a cool start to the day under mostly clear skies, then the morning sunshine will fade as clouds increase by afternoon, followed by a brief interval of rain overnight to early Monday, Sunday morning lows 3 to 7 C and afternoon highs near 20 C.

MONDAY will have occasional showers and blustery west winds, highs near 19 C.

The outlook for most of next week is similar to this week, generally near normal in temperature, rather dry but with frequent light showers, and mostly westerly breezes of varying intensity. Watching the outcome of Dorian's final stages but so far no real indications of any direct impact on Irish weather, as a lot of the storm's energy will end up in the far northern Atlantic.

My local weather on Wednesday was sunny and hot with highs near 28 C locally and 32 C at lower valley elevations where I happened to spend most of the day. This summer started out rather slowly here but has lingered a lot longer than last year's smoky cool-down (some recent days have been 10 or even 15 degrees warmer than same dates last year here). Dorian is now moving past South Carolina with some coastal high water and tropical storm force winds. The impact may be a bit stronger on North Carolina late today and tonight, then the extratropical version forms east of Atlantic City NJ and moves towards Nova Scotia for a late Friday landfall in Cape Breton apparently.

Saturday, 7 September, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 7 to 13 September 2019

-- Temperatures will average about 0.5 to 1.5 deg above normal.
-- Rainfall will average 25 to 50 per cent of normal, somewhat heavier in northwest than elsewhere.
-- Sunshine will average near normal to about 25 per cent above normal.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with a few sunny breaks developing mainly in the south and east. There could be some light drizzly rain for brief intervals in parts of the north central counties. Otherwise most places should remain dry. Highs 17 to 19 C.

TONIGHT will feature some clearing skies in the south and east, rather cool there with lows 5 to 10 C. Remaining more overcast in north and west, lows 8 to 12 C.

SUNDAY will have some bright intervals in the east during the morning, then increasing cloud from the more persistent overcast further west, where rain may develop by afternoon, although amounts rather light. Highs 18 to 20 C.

MONDAY will have a few showers then turning cooler and fresher with northwest winds 40 to 60 km/hr, lows near 10 C and highs 15 to 17 C.

TUESDAY will be breezy with showers or intervals of light rain, southwest winds 50 to 70 km/hr, and highs near 18 C.

WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy with highs near 18 C.

THURSDAY will be windy with rain at times, mostly in western counties, and highs near 18 C.

Following that, higher pressure will build in and there should be an extended dry spell with highs around 20 C, chilly nights with some local dense fog patches, but warmer still towards the middle to end of the following week.

My local weather on Friday was overcast with light rain at times, and some fog and mist, highs near 19 C. Hurricane Dorian will be moving through Nova Scotia later today on its way northeast towards southern Greenland. Some minor damage is expected with cat-1 hurricane conditions in parts of eastern Nova Scotia by evening. Heavy rain will be more widespread. It's the outer edges of this storm circulation that may brush parts of Ireland on Tuesday, followed by remnants of Gabrielle which is expected to become a hurricane by Monday in the central Atlantic. Although a weaker storm than Dorian, Gabrielle's remnants will come considerably closer to Ireland around Thursday and that could produce stronger wind gusts than the first event.

Monday, 9 September, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 9 to 15 September

-- Temperatures will be slightly above normal by 0.5 to 1.5 degrees.
-- Rainfall will be 25 to 50 per cent of normal values.
-- Sunshine will be near or slightly above normal, overall, but improving towards the end of the interval, so it may seem rather cloudy for the first half of the week.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly to mostly cloudy but with a few sunny breaks, as well as a few rather brief showers, with 1 to 3 mm of rain the most likely outcome. Highs 17 to 19 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy with longer clear intervals in the south, rather cool with lows 7 to 10 C.

TUESDAY will bring increasing cloud and a gradually increasing southwest wind, outbreaks of rain will follow, as winds reach 40 to 60 km/hr. Highs 15 to 18 C.

WEDNESDAY will continue breezy and it may turn quite windy by the overnight hours, as remnants of Gabrielle pass by just to the north. Although dry for most of the daytime hours, rain will arrive overnight. Highs 17 to 20 C. Winds increasing to westerly 50 to 80 km/hr.

THURSDAY will see rain tapering off to showers but there may be persistent light rain in the far north after it begins to clear elsewhere, in moderate westerly winds of 40 to 70 km/hr. Highs 17 to 19 C.

FRIDAY will bring sunny intervals, any cloud will likely be of the higher variety and confined mainly to northern counties. Highs 17 to 20 C.

The WEEKEND and much of NEXT WEEK will continue rather warm and dry, with temperatures near 20 C in the daytime hours at first, possibly reaching the mid 20s by middle of next week in light southerly breezes. Nights will be rather chilly and prone to dense fog patches, until the warmer spell when nights will also become rather mild.

My local weather on Sunday was overcast and foggy with rain that was occasionally rather heavy, about 15 mm fell in total, but with some dry intervals between showers. The high was about 18 C.

Wednesday, 11 September, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 11 to 17 September, 2019

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 3 deg above normal with a warming trend.
-- Rainfall will be 25 to 50 per cent of normal, most of that happening Wednesday night, and mainly dry afterwards.
-- Sunshine will average 25 to 50 per cent above normal, quite sunny in the south especially from the weekend on.

FORECASTS

TODAY will bring some clearing skies and sunny intervals in brisk westerly breezes, moderating somewhat by afternoon. Highs 17 to 21 C.

TONIGHT will become breezy in the south, with rain spreading into most regions, heavier in the northwest where 10-20 mm may occur. Mild with lows 11 to 14 C.

THURSDAY will continue rather warm and humid with the rain tapering to showers or drizzle during the morning and clearing to follow by mid-day south, afternoon north. Rather breezy at times with westerly winds 50 to 70 km/hr easing by afternoon. Highs 17 to 20 C.

FRIDAY will be clear and cool to start the day, then sunny in most areas, partly cloudy to overcast at times in the north. Lows 4 to 7 C and highs 18 to 21 C.

SATURDAY and SUNDAY will continue the trend of mostly clear skies in the south, warm by day and relatively cool at night, highs 18 to 22 C. The north will be cloudier with occasional outbreaks of light rain or drizzle possible near northwest coasts, highs 16 to 19 C.

NEXT WEEK will continue warm and dry, with a slight fall in temperatures on Monday followed by a renewed slow rise towards the mid 20s by midweek. Current indications are that the very warm spell will only break down gradually late next week or around the weekend of the 21st and 22nd, with somewhat warmer than average temperatures likely even when the cloud and showers make some inroads back into the weather pattern.

My local weather on Tuesday was overcast with some heavy rain showers in the morning, gradual clearing to partly cloudy skies by afternoon and highs near 18 C.

Friday, 13 September, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 13 to 19 September 2019

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 4 deg above normal, with a generally increasing trend so it will become very warm for this time of year by late next week. Normal highs are currently around 18 C, normal lows around 8 C. Most of the increase will be in the daytime readings, the nights will tend to remain somewhat chilly.
-- Rainfall will average only 10 to 30 per cent of normal, and almost all of that small amount will occur on Sunday. Parts of the south may be almost entirely dry this week.
-- Sunshine will average a little better than the usual 4-5 hours a day, especially in the south at first, but later in all regions.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly sunny with some intervals of higher cloud in the north. After a rather cool start to the day, it will become reasonably warm by afternoon, 16 to 19 C.

TONIGHT will be clear and cool again in the south and some central counties, lows 3 to 8 C. Urban areas may remain a bit warmer, and the north will be milder due to more widespread cloud, lows there closer to 10 C. Some dense fog patches may develop in central low-lying valley districts and as lakes are going to retain heat better than the air, they will be sources of dense fog locally throughout this coming spell of settled weather.

SATURDAY will have some warm sunny spells in the south, while cloud will increase over the north. Generally light winds, but moderate southwest near the Ulster coasts. Highs 17 to 22 C, best in the southeast.

SUNDAY will have somewhat more cloud as a weak frontal zone sets up over north-central counties, and there could be some outbreaks of light rain bringing 3 to 5 mm in some parts. It should remain dry in parts of Munster and south Leinster. Highs in the south could reach about 20 C again, but the cloud further north will likely limit temperatures to 15 to 18 C.

MONDAY will see this cloud and drizzly light rain dissipating from early morning, resulting in some dense fog patches giving way slowly to warm sunshine, highs reaching 18 to 20 C.

NEXT WEEK is looking quite warm with highs possibly reaching 24 or 25 C in some places, so long as morning fog doesn't persist as low cloud which could hold readings down slightly in a few places. Also the light southeast wind flow could generate some weak sea breeze effects on the Leinster coast and parts of the south coast. So highs in a few locations may be held to values closer to 20 C, but it will still feel rather warm even so.

The warm spell could persist and just modify slowly to more cloudy and eventually unsettled conditions late in the month, as the blocking high looks capable of holding on for a week or even two weeks before yielding to the Atlantic flow. Perhaps this is a sign that even in October there will be some further intervals of autumn warmth and hazy sun with foggy nights.

My local weather on Thursday was sunny with cloudy intervals, and a few light showers were seen off to our northwest at times but it remained dry here, with a high of about 19 C.

Sunday, 15 September, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 15 to 21 September, 2019

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 3 deg above normal, with daytime readings contributing more than relatively normal overnight lows.
-- Rainfall will average 25 per cent of normal values, a little today and possibly a bit more around Sunday of next weekend.
-- Sunshine will average near normal to 25 per cent above normal.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be rather misty and overcast in many areas with outbreaks of light rain or drizzle, amounts slight except possibly 3 to 5 mm in parts of Ulster, north Leinster and northeast Connacht. Those areas will remain rather cool with highs 14 to 17 C. Further south, it should reach 18 to 20 C with a few brighter intervals especially near the south coast.

TONIGHT will remain overcast with fog and mist, and the drizzle should end after midnight, with lows 10 to 13 C.

MONDAY will see a gradual clearing trend with the morning fog or mist slowly giving way to intervals of hazy sunshine, highs 18 to 21 C.

TUESDAY to FRIDAY will be a dry and warm interval, at least in terms of daytime highs which should reach the low 20s in many central, inland southern and western counties, and 17 to 20 C in places exposed to southeast breezes from the Irish Sea or south coast. Nights will be clear except for extensive ground fog or mist forming after sunset but becoming more widespread in the early morning hours, then slowly dissipating after sunrise each day. Winds will be light and variable in this spell.

The outlook for the weekend of 21-22 September and beyond is rather uncertain as this warm spell slowly breaks down under increasing attack from the Atlantic and even the possibility of remnant tropical activity being involved. This will likely be the storm forming after the current disturbance, Humberto, which will be quite close to Bermuda by Thursday then probably moving north towards Iceland while Ireland remains under the protection of blocking high pressure. By later in the week of 23rd to 27th there could be some rather gusty winds and rain from stronger Atlantic frontal systems.

My local weather on Saturday was overcast with occasional light rain, and moderate southeast winds, with highs near 17 C.

Tuesday, 17 September, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 17 to 23 September, 2019

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 3 deg above normal.
-- Rainfall will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal, but that will occur from late Saturday to Monday 23rd.
-- Sunshine will average near normal to 25 per cent above normal; the trend after Saturday will be cloudier though.


FORECASTS

TODAY ... some persistent fog or low cloud at first, with hazy sunshine developing, warm by afternoon with highs reaching 17 to 20 C.

TONIGHT ... some clear intervals then widespread fog, low cloud, chilly with lows 4 to 8 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Fog lifting gradually, hazy sunshine, warmer with highs 18 to 21 C.

THURSDAY ... Morning fog, mid-day and afternoon hazy sunshine, warm. Lows 5 to 9 C and highs 19 to 22 C.

FRIDAY ... Morning fog, mid-day and afternoon hazy sunshine, warm. Lows 6 to 10 C and highs 19 to 22 C.

SATURDAY ... Sunny with increasing cloud, warm, becoming breezy with south winds 50 to 70 km/hr in western counties, rain by evening. Lows near 10 C and highs 20 to 23 C.

SUNDAY ... Breezy to windy with morning showers, partial clearing and fresher by afternoon. Lows near 12 C and highs near 18 C.

MONDAY ... Windy with occasional rain, highs near 18 C. Winds southwest 60 to 90 km/hr.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Some dry and mild days with occasional windy and wet intervals in a strong southwest flow, temperatures remaining a little above average for late September.

My local weather on Monday was overcast with occasional light rain and highs near 16 C. Hurricane Humberto continues to lumber towards Bermuda which will be lashed by its outer edges around Friday morning, the core might become a cat-3 hurricane but it's not definite yet as to the maximum intensity of winds hitting Bermuda, possibly more like cat-1 there. The models continue to move Humberto more north than east after the weekend, with a new storm likely to form in the tropical regions east of the Windward Islands later today.

Thursday, 19 September, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 19 to 25 September, 2019

-- Temperatures will average 2 deg above normal, but after Saturday closer to normal values (which by then would be highs near 17 C and lows around 7 C).
-- Rainfall will average near normal, but this will fall mainly during the period Sunday to Tuesday.
-- Sunshine will also average near normal, with generous amounts today and Friday, then more cloudy than average.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be sunny, except for some persistent fog or low cloud in a few parts of the northwest, with a bit of high cloud at times, hazy and warm for most with highs 19 to 22 C.

TONIGHT will be clear and mild with a few fog patches in valleys, lows 6 to 10 C.

FRIDAY will continue hazy and warm with highs 19 to 23 C. Winds light and variable at first may become moderate southerly especially near the west coast.

SATURDAY will see the breakdown of this fine spell of weather, with increasing cloud and outbreaks of light rain, more persistent in the southwest but occasionally appearing in most other parts of the country. It will stay warm for one more day, lows near 13 C and highs in the range 19 to 22 C. Moderate southerly winds will replace the calm conditions.

SUNDAY will bring intervals of rain, 5 to 15 mm possible, with gradual clearing later in the afternoon and evening. Fresher and breezy, with lows near 12 C and highs near 17 C.

MONDAY will have some partly cloudy intervals and some outbreaks of light rain, blustery southwest winds at times, highs near 17 C.

TUESDAY will be mostly cloudy with showers and highs near 16 C.

OUTLOOK calls for further showers mid-week, rather cool by then, followed by a slow clearing trend for a day or two, and renewed bouts of rain and moderate to strong winds by about the weekend of 28th-29th.

Humberto lashed Bermuda last night with outer bands of its strong winds, at its core a cat-3 hurricane but Bermuda had more like cat-1 to occasional cat-2 conditions, things are settling down now as the large storm heads off northeast towards eastern Canada, where it seems likely to stall just before a landfall with a turn to a more easterly direction. Some remnants of Humberto will be involved in the mid-week weather over Ireland but by then just a ghost of the current system. Jerry meanwhile is almost at hurricane strength well to the east of the Windward Islands.

Saturday, 21 September, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 21 to 27 September, 2019

-- Temperatures will be falling through the period and will average just a little above normal, which by end of week would be a maximum around 16 and a minimum of 5.
-- Rainfalls will average normal to 150% of normal amounts with rain becoming frequent starting tonight.
-- Sunshine will average 50% of normal values, with today (in east and north) possibly the only sunny day for a while.

FORECASTS

TODAY will start out sunny and breezy in most areas, with a band of showery rain making its way through west Munster this morning, and spreading to other regions through the afternoon and evening, with clouds increasing rapidly ahead of the rain. Winds southeast 50 to 70 km/hr with some higher gusts near coasts and higher terrain in the south. Would exercise caution if venturing into hilly areas, weather may change rapidly. Highs 18 to 21 C.

TONIGHT will have outbreaks of showery rain and possibly a thunderstorm, 5 to 15 mm likely. Mild and breezy with lows near 12 C.

SUNDAY will have some heavy showers in the morning, tapering off to scattered showers later, with fresh southwest winds and highs only around 14 to 16 C.

MONDAY will be breezy to windy, southwest 50 to 80 km/hr, thanks to remnants of Humberto approaching northwest coast by late in the day. Showers will merge to intervals of rain, 10 to 20 mm likely. Lows near 10 C and highs near 15 C.

TUESDAY will be mostly cloudy with outbreaks of rain, lows near 8 C and highs near 14 C. Rather windy at times, especially near the south coast.

WEDNESDAY will also be cloudy with occasional rain and cool, lows of 6 C and highs near 13 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY are looking rather cool and windy with showers, lows near 5 C and highs near 13 C.

OUTLOOK ... If there is any break between systems it might come around Saturday 28th but then another interval of unsettled weather may develop. Models have very different solutions for the evolution of current Tropical Storm Jerry (just downgraded from a hurricane in the past hour, north of Puerto Rico). The American GFS model shows the remnants of Jerry racing northeast by next weekend and passing through northern Ireland and Scotland, but the European model currently brings Jerry north to Newfoundland where it stalls out because of a large high in the central Atlantic, giving Ireland a prolonged cool northerly near the end of the month. So we'll have to wait and see which model has the handle on that, with a future storm just entering the tropical Atlantic now from west Africa a possible player in the central Atlantic weather picture by about the 2nd to 4th of October.

My local weather on Friday was partly cloudy once the morning mist and drizzle cleared away, and the high was around 14 C. We are getting a bit of autumn colour showing now and traces of snow on higher peaks above 2,000 meters locally.

In case you're wondering the autumn equinox isn't today or even tomorrow, but Monday 23rd at 0852 IST (0752 UTC).

Monday, 23 September, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 23 to 29 September, 2019

-- Temperatures will be near normal values, although daily maxima could be 1 deg or more below their average, and overnight minima will be above their average values. (by mid-week, these average values are around 16 C for a high, and 6 C for the low).
-- Rainfalls will be 25 to 50 per cent above normal. About 40-50 mm can be expected in many areas.
-- Sunshine will be quite low and may have trouble reaching 50% of average (which is 4-5 hours a day).

FORECASTS

TODAY will start out with some dry and even bright intervals in parts of the east and north but rain will slowly advance northeast from west Munster, with some heavy downpours at times, 5 to 15 mm likely. Moderate southwest winds will develop, reaching 50-70 km/hr. Highs will be around 15 or 16 C.

TONIGHT will be overcast with occasional rain, and the gusty winds will become mostly confined to the south coast as a slack wind regime pushes into northern and then central regions. Lows 9 to 11 C.

TUESDAY will be breezy near the south coast, but winds will be somewhat variable elsewhere, with scattered showers or outbreaks of light rain, highs about 14 to 16 C.

WEDNESDAY will also be overcast with light rain but westerly winds will pick up again to 50-70 km/hr. Lows near 8 C and highs near 15 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will continue unsettled with occasional rain, moderate west winds occasionally stronger southwest as fronts pass, and temperatures in the 12 to 15 C range much of the time.

The coming weekend could have some brief dry intervals but the unsettled weather is likely to return at some point due to remnants of tropical activity interacting with frontal systems further north, so expect a renewed bout of wind and rain, although nothing too dramatic is shown on the charts at the moment.

Tropical Storm Jerry continues to track towards Bermuda and will then head north or northeast. The models are still somewhat undecided on whether Jerry continues its journey towards the central Atlantic or just gets absorbed into other low pressure near Newfoundland. Either way, the results will track across the Atlantic and reach Ireland around Monday 30th. Karen is a weak tropical storm now south of Puerto Rico, tracking north. Some guidance wants to merge it with remnants of Jerry later in the month. It seems unlikely that Karen would strengthen enough to make it entirely out of the subtropics before it dissipates. Lorenzo, on the other hand, appears to be imminent as a hurricane in the central Atlantic from now designated Tropical Depression 13 south of the Cabo Verde Islands. This storm may become a major hurricane near the Azores and could track towards Iceland or even further east in the North Atlantic by about the end of the month. It would follow the remnants of Jerry, Karen and whatever lows get involved in that mess, and then in turn it would be followed by another strong low likely to follow it from eastern North America. So the next two weeks seem likely to be quite active with frequent bouts of wind and rain from all this energy being sucked into the jet stream over the central Atlantic. The odds are growing that there would be a significant wind event at some point, but nothing definitive is shown yet.

My local weather on Sunday was cloudy but reasonably mild at 16 C. Light rain is approaching now. Reminder, the autumnal equinox occurs soon, may have already done so when you read this, at 0852h. So then it's officially autumn although it probably felt that way for several weeks already (here I would say the seasons changed around the 5th of September).

Wednesday, 25 September, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 25 September to 1 October, 2019

-- Temperatures will average near normal values, although mild at night, relatively cool daytime readings.
-- Rainfall will average near normal to 25% above normal.
-- Sunshine will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal values.

FORECASTS

TODAY will start out with some brighter intervals in the east and north, as light drizzly rain moves into the southwest. This rain will tend to intensify during the mid-day as it moves across most of the country, eventually giving 10-15 mm amounts. Moderate south to southwest winds at times, highs 16 to 19 C.

TONIGHT will see the rain tapering off to showers or drizzle, and the moderate southwest winds will veer to a westerly direction. Lows will be around 9 to 11 C.

THURSDAY will be rather windy with intervals of rain, possibly some embedded thunderstorms, with westerly winds 50 to 70 km/hr. Highs will reach 14 to 17 C. About 10 mm rain is likely.

FRIDAY will be partly cloudy with passing showers in moderate westerly breezes, lows near 8 C and highs near 15 C.

SATURDAY will probably be rather wet with low pressure either over or just to the south of Munster, winds may turn easterly for a time in some central and northern counties, and lows will be around 7 C with highs around 15 C.

SUNDAY could provide a brief break in the wet pattern, although forecast models diverge at this point into two different outcomes for next week, and one of these would suggest that Sunday will be the start of a trend to more settled weather. Either way, it seems likely to be a relatively dry day with highs near 15 C.

The model split is significant because it helps to determine the future track of powerful hurricane Lorenzo, expected to be near the Azores by early next week. Some guidance has this storm moving north in the central Atlantic while high pressure stays close to Ireland, preventing it from making a close approach. Other guidance does not show that and allows Lorenzo to take a run at western Europe, although the final outcome is then scattered on various models between landfalls in Ireland, Britain or France (around 2nd to 4th of October at this point).

So we'll need to keep a close eye on forecast models and their ideas for Lorenzo, as it could prove to be a significant player next week. Before that, remnants of Jerry and Karen seem likely to die out before they can reach the main portion of the jet stream, but some of their energy could transfer into lows approaching Ireland around the weekend and (if the blocking high is weak) next week, in advance of Lorenzo's extratropical stage.

My local weather was pleasant with some sunshine at times, and highs near 18 C. We have a fair amount of autumn colour showing now, not quite at its peak yet. Will try for a picture when the maples have reached their brightest phase.

Thursday, 26 September, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 26 Sept to 2 Oct 2019

-- Temperatures will average near normal values, although rather cool daytime highs and mild nights will continue.
-- Rainfall will average 25 to 50 per cent above normal.
-- Sunshine will struggle to reach even 50 per cent of average.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly to mostly cloudy with showers and longer intervals of rain, with some thunderstorms embedded by mid-day and afternoon. Moderate south to southwest winds 40 to 60 km/hr. Highs 16 to 18 C.

TONIGHT will be overcast with further rain likely, bringing totals to 15-20 mm in some places. Lows 8 to 11 C.

FRIDAY will be breezy and a bit cooler with passing showers, highs 14 to 17 C.

SATURDAY will likely be a rather wet day with winds turning easterly for a time in some central and northern counties, as low pressure passes through parts of Munster and south Leinster. Some locally heavy rainfalls may develop. Rather cool, lows near 10 C and highs 12 to 15 C.

SUNDAY will start out wet and windy with a gradual clearing trend as low pressure pulls away from the southeast, giving some chance of sunny intervals in the west by afternoon. Lows near 8 C and highs near 14 C. Winds north backing to northwest 50 to 80 km/hr.

MONDAY is currently looking wet again with yet another Atlantic depression approaching Ireland and crossing the southern counties during the day. Lows near 8 C and highs near 14 C.

TUESDAY may see a few breaks and less rainfall, with highs near 15 C.

Later next week, higher pressure may build up for a day or two, and if so that may protect Ireland from any threat of remnants of Hurricane Lorenzo making an impact (most likely to be west of Ireland around Thursday 3rd October). This hurricane is slowly gathering strength well to the south of the Azores where it could hit as a hurricane of diminishing intensity (after reaching major hurricane status in the meanwhile). Too early to say with much confidence where Lorenzo's remnants will actually head although most models seem to favour a track several hundred miles west of Ireland towards the Icelandic region with a loop around the northern Atlantic. Associated fronts and disturbances could then reach Ireland later even if Lorenzo never does.

My local weather was sunny in the morning but cloudy by afternoon, as a strong front approaches. It was about 18 C for our high on Wednesday. We're expecting some rain, then a colder turn to the weather bringing snow down to mountain pass elevations by Friday. Rather early for this, might even see some mixing at my elevation of 1050 m. A heavy snowfall is expected in some higher terrain and over on the east slopes of the Rockies (by Friday) around Calgary.

Saturday, 28 September, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 28 Sept to 4 Oct 2019

-- Temperatures will average near normal values.
-- Rainfall will be 25 to 75 per cent above normal, higher values likely in parts of the south.
-- Sunshine will be about 75 per cent of normal, closer to 3 hours a day than the normal 4 or so.
-- Strong winds may be a factor at times especially on Thursday 3rd.

FORECASTS

TODAY will start off bright and dry in some parts of the east and north, with increasing cloud later from the southwest. Rain will follow and turn heavy at times later in the day. Highs generally around 15 C, but temperatures will begin to diverge late in the day as low pressure approaches, to 12 C in the north and 17 C near the south coast.

TONIGHT will be wet and breezy, possibly a few strong gusts near the south coast when low pressure tracks into Munster. About 15 to 25 mm rain is expected. Temperatures steady 10 to 12 C for most, 14 to 17 C near the south coast for part of the night. A few strong south to southwest gusts may develop near Waterford and Wexford.

SUNDAY will see the rain tapering off to drizzle in the morning, with a gradual clearing trend by mid-day, and afternoon sunny intervals especially in Connacht and west Munster. Winds rather strong at times as the low pulls away from the east coast, blowing from a northerly direction then later on backing to northwest 50 to 70 km/hr. Lows near 7 C and highs 14 to 16 C.

MONDAY will have a chilly start as skies will remain clear until after midnight when cloud will rapidly increase. Rain will move in and persist all day in most places. North of the track of low pressure, east winds and very cool temperatures near 10 or 11 C while to the south, slightly milder at 15 C. Some central and inland southern counties will have 20-25 mm of rain.

TUESDAY will see a secondary outbreak of light rain during the morning, then gradual clearing from the persistent rain and cloud, but it won't turn sunny until afternoon, and in some western counties only. Winds will be rather brisk from the northeast backing to northwest later, before calming down Tuesday night. Lows and daytime highs in a narrow range of about 10 to 12 C. Quite chilly by evening, 4 to 6 C.

WEDNESDAY will be a dry day with generally light winds at first, becoming moderate southerly later as cloud rapidly increases, at least over western counties. Lows near 4 C and highs near 14 C.

THURSDAY -- Storm Lorenzo watch is now in the forecast as models changed the track overnight, bringing the remnant extratropical low straight towards Ireland. Too early to give any definite forecast but charts this morning on some of the most reliable models indicate potential for 120-140 km/hr gusts especially near the west coast but at least 100-120 km/hr in many areas. This could change again closer to the time. For example, one model adjusted its track so far that Lorenzo now misses Ireland to the south instead of the northwest. Very much a wait and see situation now but the arrival would be early to mid-day Thursday 3rd.

FURTHER OUTLOOK -- It appears likely to remain unsettled with more Atlantic disturbances lining up to follow Lorenzo into western Europe during early October.

My local weather has been unseasonably cold on Friday, a sleety rain was falling by late afternoon and evening, snow no doubt over just slightly higher terrain, and temperatures were never much better than 5 C during the day. A heavy snowfall warning is out for mountain passes and parts of south-central Alberta tonight.

Update -- a bit late getting to the full forecast, for those wanting an overview, will be going with the same general forecast as from this point in yesterday's outlook and the Lorenzo situation is not determined yet but guidance is favouring a near miss to the west of Ireland, however will be indicating the watch continues and about a 1 in 4 chance of a more direct impact than that. Full forecast will appear within 10 mins I hope.

Tuesday, 1st of October, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


Trends for the week of 1 to 7 October, 2019

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal, with an increasing trend. Normal values at this time of year are around 16 C for the daily maximum, and 6 for the daily minimum.
-- Rainfall will average 75 to 100 per cent of normal values, 25 to 30 mm in total.
-- Sunshine will average near normal values, about 3 hours a day at this time of year.


FORECASTS

TODAY will have some patchy light rain mostly over eastern counties, with a slow clearing trend in the west making limited progress into central counties by afternoon. It will be quite cool with northeast winds backing around to northwest later, 40 to 60 km/hr. Highs 12 to 15 C.

TONIGHT will bring some clearing in eastern and northern counties, to partly cloudy skies in the south and west. It will become frosty in a few inland valleys. Lows 1 to 5 C.

WEDNESDAY will see a mixture of cloud and sunshine, with winds generally light and variable becoming southeast by afternoon. Highs will be in the range of 12 to 16 C.

THURSDAY there will be some impacts from nearby remnants of Lorenzo tracking close to Donegal Bay and the north Ulster coast. As the storm is expected to weaken rather steadily, these impacts are more likely to be moderate (yellow alert status) than severe (orange or red alert) but that possibility still needs to be monitored. The most likely outcome would be south to southwest winds of 60 to 100 km/hr in many parts of the country, and 80 to 120 km/hr near exposed western and later northern coasts. A more severe outcome would add 20-30 to those speeds (but chances are considered low). Some rain is likely at times with heavier falls in the north. Temperatures will be in the 17-19 C range as warmer air is drawn up from the southwest. The most significant impact may be elevated sea states, large swells and breaking waves are likely due to the long duration southwest to northeast track of Lorenzo, and "rogue waves" may develop causing a safety concern for those drawn to the coast for a view of the waves.

FRIDAY will continue breezy and showers will end, leaving partly cloudy skies, and temperatures near 15 C.

The OUTLOOK calls for rain and mild southerly winds on Saturday followed by colder weather in a westerly flow for much of the following week, highs dropping back to the 10-13 C range.

My local weather remained cold on Monday, but with some bright blue skies alternating with low scudding cloud, there was no further snow and most of what was lying close to the town has melted away, with a significant cover still visible on nearby hills. Reports came in that 50 cms had fallen on nearby mountain passes and 65 cms was reported at Lethbridge, Alberta, with over a meter of snow in Waterton Lakes National Park on the Alberta-Montana border. Those heavier amounts were partly due to orographic uplift effects. Except on mountain summits most of this snow will gradually melt away in the coming week although temperatures are likely to remain rather chilly here. Meanwhile it has been unseasonably warm in eastern North America and a strong low has formed along the air mass boundary in the northwest Great Lakes region.

Wednesday, 2 October, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


Update on Lorenzo -- Hurricane Lorenzo has recently moved past the western Azores islands of Flores and Corvo, with hurricane force gusts reported. It is already about 150 miles northeast of them now and moving very rapidly towards Ireland. The main portion of the Azores had some tropical storm force winds at times but escaped the main hurricane bands with some squally showers overnight. Almost all guidance now shows Lorenzo becoming "extra-tropical" (a more traditional low in other words) in the next 24 hours, then approaching Connacht in a gradually weakening condition, finally swerving southeast from Donegal Bay to make a landfall between Mayo and southwest Donegal by Thursday evening, and the steadily weakening low tracking southeast towards Dublin overnight, then crossing the south Irish Sea Friday morning.

Forecasts here are based on the prudent choice of a somewhat higher end of the range of possibilities as maps hint at a weakening trend developing just before the landfall stage. It should be noted that Lorenzo will be tracking fairly close to the coast for 9 to 12 hours before making the landfall so that weakening might not apply to its strength while approaching the coast. And a key point is that the elevated sea state conditions, with large swells and breaking waves likely out ahead of the storm, would not be much affected by any weakening trends late in the period. The ocean effects will be the most reliable part of the projected scenario and Galway Bay in particular as well as other west coast bays should be prepared for some coastal inundation and battering waves on exposed shores.

(Trends are the same as reported yesterday and will return once Lorenzo is past).

FORECASTS

TODAY will see a gradual increase in cloud and the arrival of lower cloud layers in the west by afternoon, but the sun will be dimly visible through the higher cloud layers. It will feel rather brisk despite a drop in wind speeds for most of the day. Winds will be veering gradually around from northeast to southeast as a weak ridge drifts east, and the start of the southerly flow ahead of Lorenzo arrives tonight. Highs today will reach about 15 C in the south and 12 C in parts of the north.

TONIGHT will continue overcast with a slowly increasing southeast wind reaching 40-60 km/hr at times near south coast. Rain may move into some western areas towards morning. Lows will be 7 to 10 C.

THURSDAY will be cloudy with increasingly strong southeast to south winds, and intervals of rain. Rather mild with highs 17 to 20 C. Winds will be 50 to 80 km/hr for most areas during the day, but could reach 80-110 km/hr by late afternoon on the west coast. Rainfalls of 5-10 mm will be widespread, 15-20 mm in Donegal and perhaps northwest Mayo. Although the centre of Lorenzo will remain off the coast, large swells and waves will impact the west coast and to a lesser extent other coasts, by mid-day and through the afternoon.

THURSDAY NIGHT will see the strongest impacts on land, and as discussed, there is some chance that the storm will tend to blow itself out over the ocean just before hitting land. However, in the event that it retains some intensity to landfall, there is a risk of winds in the 80-120 km/hr range in coastal Connacht and 70-110 km/hr in west Munster, later extending into the midlands. These will veer from southwest to west then northwest as the low tracks into central Ireland. Some outbreaks of heavy rain (20-30 mm) are likely north of the track, with a few squally showers near and to the south of the track (a further 5-15 mm there). Temperatures will be steady 10 to 13 C. The southeast will likely remain less windy throughout and conditions from Dublin to Waterford and possibly as far as Cork could be relatively moderate until morning.

FRIDAY the remnants of Lorenzo will be tracking south of Dublin if not over the capital, but with much reduced wind speeds in general. Once into the Irish Sea, winds may pick up briefly from the north at 50-80 km/hr. Otherwise most parts of the country will soon be in a more moderate northwest wind flow, backing around to westerly. Some bands of rain or showers will persist for the morning hours then a gradual clearing is expected once the weak remnants of Lorenzo reach southern England. Highs will reach about 16 or 17 C.

SATURDAY will be mild with intervals of rain and southerly winds 50 to 80 km/hr, clearing by afternoon with winds easing to westerly 40 to 60 km/hr. Lows near 10 C and highs near 16 C. Temperatures will fall rapidly Saturday night.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy and cooler with lows near 4 C and highs near 13 C. Another batch of wind and rain is expected by Sunday night into Monday.

The outlook for next week is for colder weather to arrive after the Monday frontal system moves through, highs with that around 15 C but later in the week closer to 10-12 C, and some risk of slight frosts at night.

My local weather on Tuesday was partly cloudy and still rather cold, highs near 10 C. The snow has pretty much disappeared in town now but still lies 15 to 30 cm thick over higher terrain close by to the northwest. We have had little leaf fall yet although a nearly complete change in autumn colours (the local forests however are mostly coniferous, only in the town and lower down into the Columbia valley can one find many autumn colours on display).

Watch for updates on Lorenzo.

Thursday, 3 October, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


UPDATE on storm Lorenzo -- The powerful extratropical low is now approaching the M6 buoy which is located about 200 miles west of Galway Bay. The latest wind reports there are southeast 56 km/hr gusting to 93. Waves of six metres have been reported with a period of just seven seconds. That is quite an active sea state although ten metre waves may occur eventually. Large swells are likely to hit the west coast all day with increasing severity during the afternoon. The main forecast problem is, will the very strong winds stay just off the coast or will they move some distance inland? The storm is predicted to keep moving northeast all day then make a rather abrupt turn southeast and move inland over north Connacht or Donegal this evening. The further south that actually happens, the larger will be the wind impacts for Connacht and the midlands as the storm tracks through north-central Ireland. A more reliable impact will be locally heavy rainfalls in Donegal and some other parts of the northwest; anywhere that remains to the north of the track will see more rain than places south of the track. Regions near the south and east coasts will have more moderate impacts and it may not be until Friday morning that Dublin feels much of the effects, and if the storm weakens to the maximum extent shown on some guidance, that may not be a very strong impact. However, there are still some models showing a more significant impact. We will go with a middle-ground forecast with the caveat that it could turn out a bit stronger or a bit weaker than implied in the forecasts.

Trends -- for the week ahead -- temperatures will be 1 to 2 deg above normal, rainfall about 25% above normal, and sunshine near normal.

FORECASTS

TODAY will become quite windy especially near the west coast, and some rain will move into western counties, with bands of showers and possibly a thunderstorm embedded moving through central and eastern counties later in the day. It will be warmer with highs 17 to 20 C. The winds will start out southeast 50 to 80 km/hr by mid-day, 70-110 km/hr near the west coast, and possibly higher (to 130 km/hr) on exposed islands and headlands. Over the near Atlantic winds will be force 10 to 12 southerly. Large waves and swells are anticipated with some coastal flooding possible at times near high tides.

TONIGHT will remain quite windy in the west, with outbreaks of heavy rain in Donegal and some parts of north Connacht, into central Ulster and eventually north Leinster. 20-30 mm rain could fall with localized flooding in these areas. Temperatures will be steady 11 to 13 C except around 7 to 9 C in Ulster. With the low tracking inland, winds in these areas will back around from southeast to northeast 40 to 70 km/hr. Further south, occasional showers in blustery westerly winds likely. Some parts of the Connacht coast could see brief intervals of very strong winds to 120 or even 130 km/hr as the decaying remnants of Lorenzo move inland. Timing and exact location best left to a later forecast when the storm has made its final turn to land. Newport, Clifden, Connemara and Galway Bay are possible locations for these strong wind gusts. Sea states will remain quite high especially on the Atlantic coast.

The effects of the storm may be less conspicuous in some parts of the inland south, southeast and midlands. The range of possible outcomes would be between moderate southwest to west winds and showers, to storm force gusts and squally showers. This forecast will be updated this evening so check out the latest information.

FRIDAY will continue rather blustery in the morning hours with a calming trend by afternoon in most regions. A few remnant showers will move away by mid-day to leave partly cloudy skies and moderate westerly winds of 40 to 70 km/hr. Highs will reach 15 to 17 C.

SATURDAY will bring bands of light to moderate rain, 5-15 mm likely, followed by a partial clearing trend by afternoon. Winds will be southerly veering to westerly, 50 to 80 km/hr. Lows near 10 C and highs near 16 C.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy and the temperature range will be 8 to 16 C.

MONDAY will see further rain, strong southwest winds, and highs near 18 C.

The rest of next week looks unsettled but colder in stages, although further rain at times may bring in brief temperature rises to 14 C.

My local weather on Wednesday was partly cloudy and a bit milder at 12-14 C.

An update will be issued late afternoon to early evening, or earlier if necessary.

Friday, 4 October, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 4 to 10 October, 2019

-- Temperatures will average near normal values, highs near 15 C and lows near 5 C.
-- Rainfall will average 25 to 50 per cent above normal, totals of 40-50 mm can be expected.
-- Sunshine will average near normal, or about 3 hours per day.

FORECASTS

TODAY will continue rather blustery with a moderating trend by late morning in the western counties, and by afternoon in the east where a peak in wind speeds will arrive just before mid-day, as a decaying Lorenzo plods across the country, having made a landfall recently near Donegal Bay. Some intervals of rain will continue, adding 10-15 mm rainfall to totals already received, and this may lead to some spot flooding. Watch for debris on roads in western counties from both flooding and wind or coastal inundation. ... Winds will become westerly at about 50 to 70 km/hr in Leinster and the midlands, and ease from 70-110 km/hr in the west to similar speeds (50-70). Then this afternoon there will be further moderation in wind speeds with some clearing and sunny breaks setting in. Highs will be around 15 to 17 C.

TONIGHT will have some clear intervals for a while, then increasing cloud and strengthening southerly winds reaching 60-90 km/hr by morning. Temperatures may fall for a while then rise after midnight, in the range of 6 to 10 C. Rain by morning in western and central counties.

SATURDAY will see the band of rain, 10-15 mm for most, moving rapidly east followed by partial clearing, and winds easing to southwest 40 to 60 km/hr. Highs 14 to 17 C.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy and breezy, becoming windy late in the day near Atlantic coasts, with rain by evening. Lows 1-4 C and highs about 16 C.

MONDAY will be windy with rain at times, 10 to 15 mm likely, and highs near 17 C.

The rest of next week will be blustery, rather cool at times, with rain or showers most days, and highs in the 13 to 16 C range. The following week (into mid-October) looks quite chilly at this distance.

My local weather on Thursday was overcast but dry, with highs around 10 C.

Saturday, 5 October, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 5 to 11 October, 2019

-- Temperatures will average about 1 to 2 deg above normal values (which are around 15 for maximum, 5 for minimum).
-- Rainfall will average near normal values (about 30 mm in total for most places).
-- Sunshine will average within 25% of normal values also (about 3-4 hours a day).

FORECASTS

TODAY will see a band of rain moving gradually east across the country, with 10-15 mm potential rainfalls. Winds moderate southerly 50 to 70 km/hr with the rain will veer more to westerly later, 40 to 60 km/hr. Highs 13 to 17 C.

TONIGHT will become partly cloudy with moderate westerly breezes and lows 5 to 8 C.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast at times, with isolated and brief showers possible mostly near Atlantic coasts and hills. Moderate southwest winds will continue, 40 to 60 km/hr. Highs 14 to 17 C.

MONDAY will be a rather breezy and mild day with outbreaks of light rain from early morning to mid-day, some hill fog at times, and after lows near 12 C, highs of 16 to 18 degrees. Winds south to southwest 50 to 80 km/hr in exposed areas. Partial clearing will spread in from the west during the afternoon leading to some late afternoon sunshine.

TUESDAY will be blustery and a bit cooler with passing showers, winds west-southwest at 50 to 70 km/hr, and after lows near 8 C, highs will reach about 14 to 16 C.

WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with occasional light rain mainly in northern counties, moderate westerly winds, and a temperature range from lows near 7 C to highs near 16 C.

THURSDAY will be breezy to windy with a few showers, winds westerly 60 to 90 km/hr, lows near 8 C and highs near 16 C.

FRIDAY will bring intervals of rain and temperatures steady 12 to 15 C.

The outlook calls for rather cool (11-14 C) and unsettled weather the following weekend (12th-13th) with some risk of strong winds and heavy rainfalls developing from a strong Atlantic low around Sunday 13th or Monday 14th. After that it could turn rather cold for about a week (8-12 C) as the upper level flow becomes increasingly northerly in direction.

My local weather on Friday was cloudy with a few breaks and passing spotty showers, only trace accumulations, with highs around 10 C. The recent snow can still be seen on nearby hills but has slowly retreated back up to around 1200 meters now.

Monday, 7 October, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 7 to 13 October, 2019

-- Temperatures will be 1 to 2 deg above normal values.
-- Rainfall will be about 25% above normal in the west, but somewhat below normal in the southeast. Most other parts of the country will end up close to average.
-- Sunshine will amount to 75% of normal values or about 2-3 hours a day.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy with moderate southwest winds 40 to 60 km/hr, and it should stay fairly dry once the last of the light drizzly rain ends over Leinster this morning. There could be some isolated showers mainly in the north. Highs 15 to 18 C.

TONIGHT will become overcast with occasional rain, as the southwest winds continue in the 40 to 60 km/hr range. Lows near 10 C.

TUESDAY will be rather blustery and a bit cooler with more widespread showers and chance of a thunderstorm, highs 14 to 16 C. Winds will be somewhat more westerly at times, 50 to 70 km/hr. Total rainfalls 5 to 10 mm for most, 10 to 20 mm in parts of Connacht and west Ulster.

WEDNESDAY will also be breezy and unsettled with slightly higher temperatures reaching 15 to 18 C.

THURSDAY will be overcast with occasional light rain, but a heavier band will develop late in the day lasting overnight. Highs near 16 C.

FRIDAY will start out wet with gradual improvements later in the day, highs near 15 C.

The outlook is basically more of the same, trends remain about normal for mid-October if perhaps slightly cooler than this week, and there will continue to be rather frequent rain, generally showery but sometimes heavy in Connacht and west Ulster.

My local weather on Sunday was sunny with a high near 14 C. We are now overcast and expecting some light rain that will probably turn to snow Monday night here giving another coating of 2 to 5 cms, then quite a cold spell for this early in the season will follow. Meanwhile, there is some chance of tropical storm development east of Bermuda, and an associated coastal low developing east of Virginia, but these systems are more likely to stay in the western Atlantic than move anywhere close to Ireland.

Wednesday, 9 October, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 9 to 15 October, 2019

-- Temperatures will average near normal values (14-16 C max, 4-6 C min).
-- Rainfall will be somewhat higher than average in most areas; about 30-45 mm can be expected in total.
-- Sunshine will average reasonably close to average with partly cloudy to overcast skies quite normal at this time of year.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be breezy and it may feel a bit warmer by afternoon at least in the south, as highs reach 14 to 17 C. Some showers will occur but there will be some dry intervals with occasional sunny breaks. Winds west-southwest 50 to 70 km/hr should ease somewhat by later parts of the afternoon and evening.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy and showers will tend to die out, resuming towards morning. Lows 3 to 7 C.

THURSDAY will bring increasing cloud and outbreaks of rain becoming heavy at times by late in the day. Lows near 7 C and highs near 15 C.

FRIDAY will start out with rain then a partly cloudy afternoon will follow, with temperatures in a similar range (7 to 15 C).

SATURDAY will start out with some dry and partly cloudy conditions with a rather cool start to the day (morning lows 2 to 6 C), then it will turn more cloudy with rain spreading in from the south, and present indications are that it may stay rather chilly with highs of 13 to 15 C.

SUNDAY will be breezy to windy with rain at times in the morning, with some 15 to 25 mm amounts possible. Lows near 10 C and highs near 15 C.

The outlook is for unsettled weather to continue next week, with temperatures just a degree or two lower than this week, which one might expect with the gradually falling normal trend curve. There are some faint signs of a more settled period at some point before the month ends as high pressure seems to be wanting to build up gradually in the central Atlantic, so the main question there will be whether that gets close enough to provide a settled interval or stays off to the southwest promoting more of this unsettled windy weather.

My local weather turned quite cold on Tuesday and there were a few snow flurries in the region, not much accumulation in town here but some slushy accumulations on higher ground nearby. The high was only about 4 C. We could fall to -5 C by Wednesday morning if skies clear up during the day. Brilliant fall colours now with the recent frosty nights and not much leaf fall yet. Meanwhile, after weeks of very warm summer-like weather that extended past the autumn equinox into October, the eastern regions of North America are turning more seasonable as an Atlantic storm circulates air in from the northeast, it's far enough offshore that not much rain is reaching land but cloud extends past the U.S. east coast now -- at Washington DC where they had a record high of 37 C last week, highs are settling into the 15-20 C range this week. Also of interest, a typhoon is going to approach Japan in a few days' time, there's a thread about that subject and potential impacts on sporting events elsewhere in the forum.

Friday, 11 October, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 11 to 17 October 2019

-- Temperatures will average near normal values which are highs around 15 C and lows around 5 C.
-- Rainfalls will average fairly close to normal as well, 30 to 45 mm can be expected in total.
-- Sunshine will have enough chances to make an appearance to rack up the usual 3 hours a day for mid-October.


FORECASTS

TODAY will become partly cloudy with some pleasant sunny intervals, moderate southwest to west winds, and passing showers feeding in from the Atlantic, not necessarily making it all that far across the country so perhaps 2-5 mm rainfalls in the west and (not counting what already fell) 1-3 mm in the east. Any lingering rain in the southeast should be moving out soon. Highs 11 to 15 C.

TONIGHT will feature some clear intervals and a good view of the nearly full moon. Rather chilly with lows 2 to 5 C.

SATURDAY will bring a mixture of cloud and sunshine, but with a trend to increasing cloudiness especially in southern and western counties, where some outbreaks of rain could begin by late afternoon. Highs 10 to 14 C.

SUNDAY will be rather cloudy and becoming misty over higher terrain as light to moderate rain begins to spread slowly inland from coasts. Lows will be 1 to 5 C and highs 11 to 15 C.

MONDAY will have some wet intervals at first, moderate northerly winds will develop as low pressure deepens over Britain bringing them some heavier rain, while Ireland slowly clears from the west with highs near 13 C.

TUESDAY will become rather windy from a southerly direction and there will be some heavy showers along a front expected to move steadily east, with temperatures near 13 C.

The rest of next week looks a bit colder still, with highs only around 10 or 11 C, and outbreaks of rain. There is nothing but unsettled and rather chilly weather on the charts for several weeks and even colder weather could set in at some point late in the month.

My local weather on Thursday was sunny with cold temperatures that started out around -5 C and reached perhaps 4 C at peak before dropping back below freezing at sunset. This cold air is feeding into a developing storm over the plains states that will bring a heavy wet snowfall to the Dakotas and Manitoba, while pumping up some relatively warm air into the Midwest and Great Lakes regions.

Sunday, 13 October, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 13 to 19 October, 2019

-- Temperatures will average near normal values.
-- Rainfall will average about 25% above normal in many areas, possibly 50% or more above in west Munster.
-- Sunshine will average 80 to 110 per cent of normal.

FORECASTS

TODAY will start with some outbreaks of rain in Leinster and partly cloudy skies in most other areas. A few scattered outbreaks of light rain will develop in those initially dry locations while the early rain will drift further north while weakening. Highs 11 to 14 C. Rainfalls 3 to 7 mm.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy with isolated showers in most areas, but moderate to heavy rain may develop near the southwest coasts. This will move gradually north and also will spread further east by morning. Lows 4 to 7 C.

MONDAY will likely be quite wet in parts of Munster and possibly south Leinster, although the situation remains a little uncertain; a rather small-scale low is expected to loop around near Kerry and some of its heavier rain may remain off the coast. There is potential for 15-30 mm rainfalls whether on land or not, and some local flooding if this hits higher terrain in west Munster. Many other areas could have a largely dry day with outbreaks of scattered showers giving smaller amounts further north. Highs 10 to 13 C.

TUESDAY will start out dry in many areas but rain will spread in from the Atlantic and it will become rather windy, southerly gales near the west coast and 50-80 km/hr further east. About 15-25 mm rain can be expected with this front, and temperatures will be steady 12-14 C.

WEDNESDAY will become partly cloudy, blustery with southwest winds 50 to 80 km/hr, showers with some hail possible. Highs near 12 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with passing showers and cool west to northwest winds 50 to 80 km/hr, lows around 6 C and highs 10 to 13 C.

There is little change in the unsettled pattern beyond the end of the week, although one or two dry days may come along in the mix as the distance between systems looks to be increasing further ahead. Some very cold air is lurking over Scandinavia at times during the second week of the forecast period and could be making a run towards Britain if not Ireland later in the month.

My local weather was partly cloudy to overcast but dry, and cool with highs of about 7 C. There are some clear intervals tonight here and glimpses of the full moon, which is more precisely timed for Sunday at 2209h IST (2109 UTC). You may get a view of it in some places this evening.