Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

M.T. Cranium · 06-10-2018 7:32am

Saturday, 6 October, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... A few showers will be found near Atlantic coasts and in the southeast, with most other places dry, cloudy most of the morning but with some partial clearing developing mid-day and afternoon. Rather cool with fresh north winds near coasts, 40 to 60 km/hr in exposed locations. Highs 9 to 12 C.

TONIGHT ... Generally clear and cold with frost likely in central and southern valleys, lows -2 to +4 C, somewhat more cloud in north with lows about 5 C.

SUNDAY ... Sunny intervals in southern, central and eastern counties, light winds, highs near 15 C. Increasing cloud west and north, some light rain at times near outer northwest coasts, moderate southwest winds and highs near 14 C.

MONDAY ... Mostly cloudy and milder, some brighter intervals in south and east where it should remain largely dry, occasional light rain will brush some parts of the coastal west and north. Moderate southwest winds, lows 8 to 10 C, and highs near 17 C.

TUESDAY ... Occasional rain still mainly confined to west and north but some heavier pulses likely near north and west Connacht coasts, otherwise variable cloud and quite mild, moderate southwest winds, lows 10 to 12 C and highs 16 to 18 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Further outbreaks of light rain, becoming heavier as the day progresses, mild. Highs near 17 C. Strong southwest winds developing in northwest coastal regions, gusts to 80 km/hr.

OUTLOOK ... Details on timing are becoming a bit uncertain but there should be an interval of rain mid-week followed by an even warmer southerly flow towards the end of the week, but there could be some windy and eventually colder weather following on as the blocking now appears set to break down a bit faster than depicted yesterday. This outlook could continue to waver back and forth as we get clearer indications on the interplay between the jet stream and remnants of Leslie, which is no longer a hurricane but a tropical storm east of Bermuda soon heading for the Azores. Latest indications seem to be more in favour of Leslie weakening too fast to get into the storm track headed for Ireland, instead it seems likely to continue meandering around southwest of the Azores.

My local weather on Friday was partly cloudy to overcast and rather chilly after some scattered frost in the area, highs only reached 8 C.

M.T. Cranium · 07-10-2018 7:16am

Sunday, 7 October, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy with a few sunny breaks in the south, patchy rain or drizzle affecting parts of the north. Moderate southwest winds will be strongest near west and north coasts (40 to 60 km/hr) and less windy conditions will be found in the inland south. Highs near 15 C.

TONIGHT ... Overcast with a few breaks in the south, occasional light rain in the north. Lows 7 to 9 C.

MONDAY ... Hazy, partly cloudy in most areas, some outbreaks of rain will brush north and west coasts of Connacht into west Ulster, some heavy bursts possible there. Highs 16 to 19 C.

TUESDAY ... Occasional rain, heavy at times, in west and north, 10 to 20 mm potential there, but still mainly dry in parts of east and south, mild. Lows near 12 C and highs 17 to 19 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Hazy sunshine, southerly breezes and very mild to warm temperatures, lows near 10 C and highs near 20 C (somewhat lower in some coastal areas where low cloud may drift inland at times).

THURSDAY to SATURDAY will bring periods of strong winds and heavy rainfalls from several lows, potential for wind gusts above 80 km/hr by Friday with these, and 30 to 50 mm of rain. While remnants of Leslie are not expected to catch up with these disturbances, some models have shown some of the energy being drawn north, while others show a very weak remnant low dying out near southern Spain. In any case, the net result will be very mild, wet and windy weather with highs each day around 15 or 16 C and very mild at night (11 to 13 C).

OUTLOOK beyond that disturbed period of weather during the week of 15 to 19 October is for the mild temperatures to continue but in a less volatile pattern with mostly dry conditions, still generally a south to southwest wind flow, but not as strong, with a risk of dense fog at night, highs remaining in the 14 to 16 C range, overnight lows probably falling back a little towards 5 to 7 C.

My local weather on Saturday was sunny with a brisk northerly breeze and a high near 12 C. Currently clear and near freezing approaching midnight. Meanwhile, a new tropical storm appears to be forming southwest of Cuba and is heading for the east-central Gulf of Mexico.

M.T. Cranium · 08-10-2018 7:27am

Monday, 8 October, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy in most areas, some outbreaks of rain will brush north and west coasts of Connacht into west Ulster, some heavy bursts possible there. Parts of north Connacht and west Ulster could see 20-30 mm. Highs 16 to 19 C. Winds southwest 40-70 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Rain continuing in northwest, mainly dry and very mild elsewhere, breezy, lows 12 to 14 C.

TUESDAY ... Occasional rain, heavy at times, in west and north, 10 to 20 mm potential there, but still mainly dry in parts of east and south, mild, and highs 17 to 19 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Hazy sunshine, with intervals of cloud, southerly to southeasterly breezes 40 to 60 km/hr, and very mild to warm temperatures, lows near 10 C and highs near 20 C (somewhat lower in some coastal areas where low cloud may drift inland at times). Showers more isolated and most places generally dry until late in the day, rain arriving overnight (10-20 mm likely).

THURSDAY ... Rain slowly clearing east, cooler with temperatures steady 10-12 C, winds veering southwest 40-60 km/hr.

FRIDAY ... Windy with potential for gale or even storm force gusts in west and possibly extending into many other areas as well (highest risk at this early stage appears to be in Connacht), wind gusts possibly over 100 km/hr, significant rainfalls also (10-30 mm) with temperatures steady around 14 C.

OUTLOOK ... After all of that active weather, there is still some risk of a visit by much weakened remnants of Leslie by about Sunday, but only some of the guidance is showing this while other sources say Leslie will meander further down around Madeira or even Morocco, southern Spain etc. This situation won't be clarified until late this week. In any case, the general trend through next weekend and the week of 15th to 19th of October appears to be somewhat cooler and some settled intervals although still rather breezy with the odd threat of more rain.

A new uncertainty is posed by the eventual track of Michael, now a tropical storm southwest of Cuba, predicted to become a hurricane before hitting northwest Florida around Tuesday, then moving very rapidly northeast. It is not the same storm as expected in Ireland on Friday but it may be trying to catch up to that low somewhere in the Atlantic by that time, however guidance begins to scatter widely by then. Given how long Leslie has been a named storm (in two intervals) it would be ironic if Michael made it across the Atlantic first.

My local weather was pleasant although cool, with some sunshine and drifting clouds, and a high near 11 C.

M.T. Cranium · 09-10-2018 7:37am

Tuesday, 9 October, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Windy and quite mild with frequent rain in parts of Connacht and Ulster, 20 to 30 mm potential especially in west Mayo and hilly portions of Donegal, but most other regions will have either sporadic light rain (from about Galway to east Ulster) or a mostly dry day with a few breaks in the overcast. Highs 16 to 18 C and winds south to southwest 50 to 80 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Rain ending in the northwest, some clearing elsewhere, gusty south to southeast winds and very mild, lows 12 to 15 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Intervals of sun and cloud, except rather cloudy near southwest coasts, southerly winds 60 to 90 km/hr at times, warm with highs not far from 20 C except where modified by onshore wind flow to around 14 or 15 C. This warmth will extend well into the north and could be amplified by downsloping any place that has higher ground to the south or southeast.

THURSDAY ... Rain slowly crossing the country from southwest to northeast from early morning hours to mid-day, amounts fairly light in most cases (5 to 10 mm), temperatures steady around 12 C, possibly rising back to 14 or 15 C in any afternoon clearing in Munster, but otherwise staying mostly cloudy and misty.

FRIDAY ... We are somewhere between an advance watch and an advance alert situation for strong winds as guidance refuses to come into complete agreement on the track of a strong low that is expected to move northeast through Donegal Bay. More certain is that heavy rainfall will accompany the system and renew itself when a trailing wave (without strong winds) runs along a stalled frontal boundary late Friday into Saturday. So that sets the stage for this range of possible outcomes on Friday and Saturday ... Friday is likely to be windy with occasional rain and the potential for strong gusts to develop at least in Connacht and west Ulster, if not country-wide. These winds could peak anywhere between 80 and 130 km/hr depending on which guidance proves best. Rainfalls of 20 to 50 mm are possible (extending into Saturday morning), with some of the heavier falls in the south. Temperatures will be steady in the 14 to 16 C range. ... Then Saturday seems likely to see a second round of heavy rain moving northeast through Munster into the midlands and eventually Leinster and east Ulster, another 20 or 30 mm is quite likely, with moderate southerly winds (east for a time north of the track of this wave), and temperatures continuing in the same range or perhaps a bit lower in the northwest (12 to 14 C there).

The chances of strong enough winds to merit an orange alert on Friday are estimated at about 60% and for a red alert perhaps 30% (confined to some counties in Connacht and Ulster and possibly Kerry and Clare). So this is not quite a certain outcome yet. There may also be an orange alert required for rainfall and I would estimate chances of that closer to 70%.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Some further unsettled weather is likely to follow these significant wind and rain threats, but the latest word on Leslie seems to be a reduced risk of that storm making it to the turn (west of Portugal) in time to join the tail end of these lows, instead it seems more likely to stall around Madeira and perhaps meander for a few more days in that general area.

Hurricane Michael is steadily intensifying in the eastern Gulf of Mexico and will hit northwest Florida by Wednesday, then re-emerge into the Atlantic by Thursday. After a bit of a loop or wobble near Newfoundland by Sunday, remnants of Michael may approach Ireland around Tuesday of next week, or at least some of the energy from a dissipated storm may get into the jet stream and be part of the weather pattern affecting Ireland mid-week (in about eight to ten days' time). This will keep the unsettled and rather mild theme going for a few more days and although I see indications of colder weather on charts in two weeks or so, these often back down to a more average sort of outcome but there could be the occasional settled and more pleasant day in the mix once all these features are done with their assaults.

My local weather on (a holiday) Monday here was overcast with a few spots of light rain and highs only around 9 C. We are expecting some slight warming to develop eventually, once Michael rips into the eastern North American ridge then it could be our turn to sit under a warmer supporting pattern (something that has not really happened here much since July, it was dominant from May to July). Winds have been quite light however, so we still have very little leaf fall although complete colour change, so it looks pleasant enough.

M.T. Cranium · 09-10-2018 7:37am

Tuesday, 9 October, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Windy and quite mild with frequent rain in parts of Connacht and Ulster, 20 to 30 mm potential especially in west Mayo and hilly portions of Donegal, but most other regions will have either sporadic light rain (from about Galway to east Ulster) or a mostly dry day with a few breaks in the overcast. Highs 16 to 18 C and winds south to southwest 50 to 80 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Rain ending in the northwest, some clearing elsewhere, gusty south to southeast winds and very mild, lows 12 to 15 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Intervals of sun and cloud, except rather cloudy near southwest coasts, southerly winds 60 to 90 km/hr at times, warm with highs not far from 20 C except where modified by onshore wind flow to around 14 or 15 C. This warmth will extend well into the north and could be amplified by downsloping any place that has higher ground to the south or southeast.

THURSDAY ... Rain slowly crossing the country from southwest to northeast from early morning hours to mid-day, amounts fairly light in most cases (5 to 10 mm), temperatures steady around 12 C, possibly rising back to 14 or 15 C in any afternoon clearing in Munster, but otherwise staying mostly cloudy and misty.

FRIDAY ... We are somewhere between an advance watch and an advance alert situation for strong winds as guidance refuses to come into complete agreement on the track of a strong low that is expected to move northeast through Donegal Bay. More certain is that heavy rainfall will accompany the system and renew itself when a trailing wave (without strong winds) runs along a stalled frontal boundary late Friday into Saturday. So that sets the stage for this range of possible outcomes on Friday and Saturday ... Friday is likely to be windy with occasional rain and the potential for strong gusts to develop at least in Connacht and west Ulster, if not country-wide. These winds could peak anywhere between 80 and 130 km/hr depending on which guidance proves best. Rainfalls of 20 to 50 mm are possible (extending into Saturday morning), with some of the heavier falls in the south. Temperatures will be steady in the 14 to 16 C range. ... Then Saturday seems likely to see a second round of heavy rain moving northeast through Munster into the midlands and eventually Leinster and east Ulster, another 20 or 30 mm is quite likely, with moderate southerly winds (east for a time north of the track of this wave), and temperatures continuing in the same range or perhaps a bit lower in the northwest (12 to 14 C there).

The chances of strong enough winds to merit an orange alert on Friday are estimated at about 60% and for a red alert perhaps 30% (confined to some counties in Connacht and Ulster and possibly Kerry and Clare). So this is not quite a certain outcome yet. There may also be an orange alert required for rainfall and I would estimate chances of that closer to 70%.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Some further unsettled weather is likely to follow these significant wind and rain threats, but the latest word on Leslie seems to be a reduced risk of that storm making it to the turn (west of Portugal) in time to join the tail end of these lows, instead it seems more likely to stall around Madeira and perhaps meander for a few more days in that general area.

Hurricane Michael is steadily intensifying in the eastern Gulf of Mexico and will hit northwest Florida by Wednesday, then re-emerge into the Atlantic by Thursday. After a bit of a loop or wobble near Newfoundland by Sunday, remnants of Michael may approach Ireland around Tuesday of next week, or at least some of the energy from a dissipated storm may get into the jet stream and be part of the weather pattern affecting Ireland mid-week (in about eight to ten days' time). This will keep the unsettled and rather mild theme going for a few more days and although I see indications of colder weather on charts in two weeks or so, these often back down to a more average sort of outcome but there could be the occasional settled and more pleasant day in the mix once all these features are done with their assaults.

My local weather on (a holiday) Monday here was overcast with a few spots of light rain and highs only around 9 C. We are expecting some slight warming to develop eventually, once Michael rips into the eastern North American ridge then it could be our turn to sit under a warmer supporting pattern (something that has not really happened here much since July, it was dominant from May to July). Winds have been quite light however, so we still have very little leaf fall although complete colour change, so it looks pleasant enough.

M.T. Cranium · 10-10-2018 7:35am

Wednesday, 10 October, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

The potential windstorm event for early Friday is still very subject to uncertainty, with different weather models showing considerably different outcomes. It seems rather likely to be an alert situation in Connacht and west Munster, less certain elsewhere, and the intensity remains a question mark at this point in time. Significant rainfalls are likely over the period Thursday to Saturday also, in some cases these may be beneficial after several dry months. But there is some flooding potential especially by Saturday in the southeast. A more potent flood risk will occur in Wales however, with the worst of the rainfall amounts likely to be headed in that direction.

TODAY ... Breezy and quite warm with hazy sunshine but some cloudy intervals, winds south-southeast 50 to 80 km/hr. Highs 18 to 22 C.

TONIGHT ... Increasing cloud, rain slowly spreading into south and west, becoming rather heavy at times in a few locations. Lows 10 to 13 C.

THURSDAY ... Intermittent rain spreading further east, 10-20 mm on average, highs 13 to 15 C, then slow partial clearance to follow but likely only to bring any brighter intervals to southwest before nightfall, then becoming very windy.

THURSDAY NIGHT into FRIDAY ... We remain in a watch more than an alert situation with guidance rather mixed as to how strong the winds might become at peak intensity around 0600h Friday, with a very deep low passing 150 miles west of Ireland. Peak gusts of 110 km/hr seem certain for parts of Connacht and west Munster, but these could be as strong as 140 km/hr in a worst case scenario. Then again, much of the south and east could escape with gusts to only 80 km/hr, or as high as 120 km/hr. What is complicating the forecast is that each model takes the same low and intensifies it rapidly somewhere to the west of Ireland but the details are just that much different to cause uncertainty as to whether the inevitable strong winds stay offshore, brush the outer coast, or sweep further east to envelop much of the country. In any case, the strong winds would begin to abate somewhat in the mid-day hours. Also, a band of moderate to heavy rain is likely to sweep across the country during the morning, with 15-25 mm amounts. Temperatures are most likely to be in the 14 to 16 C range. I hope to be able to clarify this uncertain (for strong winds at least) outlook later today or Thursday morning at the latest.

SATURDAY ... Another pulse of moderate to heavy rain is expected to sweep across parts of the south and east mainly, with 20-30 mm potential there, more like 5-10 mm in the northwest, and once again temperatures will be steady around 15 C. Winds could be moderately strong at times with this trailing wave, from the south ahead of a frontal boundary, east backing to northerly behind the feature.

SUNDAY ... Mostly cloudy with a few sunny breaks, showers and a few heavier bursts of thundery rain possible. Highs near 14 C.

OUTLOOK ... Remnants of Hurricane Michael will likely be crossing the Atlantic on the weekend and arriving in Ireland on Monday into early Tuesday, with at least moderate winds and rainfalls. This outlook could also change closer to the time. Beyond that, a rather bland pattern develops with near normal temperatures much of the time and occasional showers but some dry days in the mix.

Hurricane Michael, now a very powerful category 4 storm, is bearing down on the north Florida coast, hopefully it will come inland somewhere south of Panama City to reduce the wind impact there although it could be a direct hit (around 1800h UTC which is near mid-day in the region). Large storm surges are likely from the landfall to about 150 miles east and 30 miles westward (northerly winds further west will drive the water away from the coast). The storm will accelerate through the inland southeast U.S. becoming only a tropical storm fairly soon after landfall, then re-emerge into the Atlantic passing south of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland on Friday into Saturday. From there, remnants will merge with another low from Ontario moving east in the jet stream, and the combined result will arrive in Ireland around Monday evening, nothing too extreme is depicted at this early stage (peak gusts around 90 km/hr, rainfalls 10-20 mm). So if you see Michael doing damage on the news and hear that it's coming to Ireland, don't be all that worried.

My local weather has been very bland recently to the point where I hardly notice it given all this other commotion, a calm day on Tuesday with a high near 12 C and mostly cloudy skies. We do have bears wandering the streets at this time of year (they are getting ready to hibernate so it's not quite as placid as you might have thought from that weather description).

M.T. Cranium · 11-10-2018 7:34am

Thursday, 11 October, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Intervals of rain will continue to move steadily northeastward, bringing about 10 mm on average, with a gradual clearance to follow. This will likely proceed rather slowly and bring some afternoon sunny breaks to Munster and a few parts of Connacht and Leinster. Moderate southerly winds veering southwesterly 40 to 60 km/hr, with stronger south winds developing by evening on the west and southwest coasts. Highs 14 to 16 C.

TONIGHT ... Very windy especially near south and west coasts, where gusts to 120 km/hr are possible, otherwise 50 to 80 km/hr generally, with rain sweeping in again, becoming rather heavy at times. Lows 11 to 13 C.

FRIDAY ... The strong winds will likely ease somewhat by later morning, settling back to 50 to 80 km/hr on coasts and 40 to 60 km/hr elsewhere. The band of rain will continue a slow eastward motion with 15-25 mm amounts likely before Friday evening. Highs 14 to 16 C.

SATURDAY ... Renewed moderate to heavy rain will move into the south and up the east coast, with further 15-30 mm amounts, some spot flooding in the southeast. Not as much rain is expected in west and north with some dry intervals. Winds generally light to moderate southerly with the rain, easterly in some parts of the north and west, backing to northerly late Saturday there. Temperatures steady 11 to 15 C, mildest in the southeast.

SUNDAY ... Some brighter intervals, fresh westerly winds at times, isolated showers some becoming thundery. Lows near 10 C and highs about 14 C.

MONDAY ... Some remnants of former hurricane Michael will interact with a frontal trough, but most of the energy could be dissipated well to the south of Munster according to much of the current guidance. The result will be a breezy but not overly windy day with some rain at times, highs near 13 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... A westerly flow will follow with near normal temperatures and frequent rainfalls, sometimes rather heavy (Connacht around Thursday is set to receive about 30 mm or more, for example). Highs during most of next week will be 12 to 14 C, and little if any chance of frosts.

Michael went on a rampage through parts of northern Florida into southern Georgia during Wednesday, and produced severe wind and storm surge damage near and south of Panama City, FL. It has already been downgraded to a tropical storm approaching South Carolina, and will continue on towards southeast Virginia all day and overnight, then will move past Nova Scotia on Friday and Newfoundland on Saturday. Most guidance then shows the remnant low (not overly strong at that point) heading quickly east at around 45 degrees north and some of the guidance brings the low into northwest Spain eventually. Remnants of Leslie meanwhile could be almost anywhere between Portugal and the Azores by about that time.

My local weather continued rather bland with mostly cloudy skies and a high near 12 C.

M.T. Cranium · 12-10-2018 6:24am

Friday, 12 October, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Windy for a few more hours (southerly 70 to 110 km/hr, a few gusts to 130 km/hr on outer west coast), then easing to more moderate south to southwest winds 40 to 70 km/hr by mid-day. Scattered showers this morning, followed by a general but rather brief clearance before cloud increases again from the south to be followed by rain, heavy at times in the southeast by late afternoon. Highs 14 to 16 C.

TONIGHT ... Rain, heavy at times, continuing in the south and east, some dry intervals in central counties, light rain near the west coast. A few locations could see 30 mm around Wexford and south Wicklow. Lows 11 to 13 C.

SATURDAY ... Mostly cloudy, some mist or fog developing, further outbreaks of rain, generally about 10 mm additional. Highs 14 to 16 C.

SUNDAY ... Early morning rain ending around dawn, then partly cloudy with isolated showers, lows 8 to 10 C and highs 12 to 15 C.

MONDAY ... Some early sunshine then increasing cloud, rain by afternoon or evening. Remnants of Michael may be involved, or may pass to the south before a trailing front reaches Ireland. Lows near 4 C and highs near 14 C.

TUESDAY ... Windy with showers, highs near 12 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Rather unsettled, heavy rain expected again around Thursday into Friday. Temperatures staying near or slightly above mid-October normals. Highs generally around 14 C. Frost is likely to be infrequent.

My local weather on Thursday was sunny with afternoon cloudy intervals and cool, the high reaching 12 C.

M.T. Cranium · 13-10-2018 7:39am

Saturday, 13 October, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Rain will continue for most of the day in much of the country but there are some parts of the north midlands that could have less in total being in between two bands of rainfall; the heavier of the two will slide northeast across east Munster into Leinster and bring 15-30 mm amounts, while the western band will bring 10-20 mm to parts of west Munster, Connacht and west Ulster. It will remain overcast and sometimes rather foggy or misty, with temperatures steady in the 13 to 15 C range for most.

TONIGHT ... Some further rain as winds turn more northerly for a time, temperatures falling off to the 7 to 9 C range.

SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy, breezy (westerly 40 to 70 km/hr) with isolated showers, some with hail or thunder. These showers will be more widespread in the north and west. Highs 14 to 16 C.

MONDAY ... Some sunshine after a clear and cool overnight with morning lows 3 to 7 C. Increasing cloud by mid-day and light rain possible by evening in west and south. Highs near 14 C.

TUESDAY ... Overcast, showers or intervals of rain, turning cooler, temperatures steady overnight near 10 C then falling off to near 8 C later. Brisk westerly winds 50 to 80 km/hr developing.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, isolated showers, cool. Lows near 2 C and highs near 11 C.

THURSDAY ... Breezy and milder, rain by late in the day, highs near 15 C.

FRIDAY ... Rain tapering to showers, windy, highs near 13 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... A rather unsettled pattern although nothing too active for this time of year, with near or slightly above normal temperatures that will often be in the 13 to 15 C range by day.

I have been working on a winter outlook. Early indications suggest it could be quite a cold winter but I think it would be prudent to set late November as a check-in time for any later revisions and a better idea of the details. This will give me a chance to check some developing guidelines for what I suspect may be developing. In any case, I don't expect this colder regime to make much of a showing before late November at the earliest. So the best way to put this is, potential for a cold winter, waiting to see if trends develop as expected that will give better confidence in that rather unusual outlook (unusual for me anyway, I guess it is the annual event for the tabloids).

Hurricane update -- remnants of Michael (already extra-tropical) are racing past Newfoundland overnight and still appear destined to swerve far enough south to miss Ireland almost completely other than some higher cloud that might be visible from south coast Monday morning. In fact the low will dissipate almost completely before hitting land anywhere in Europe according to most current guidance. Leslie, meanwhile, has finally chosen a path to follow, and that appears to be directly east into Portugal tonight, and Spain by Sunday. The effects may be quite limited in areal extent but some place on the coast could see wind gusts to 100 km/hr, models disagree where that might be.

My local weather on Friday was partly cloudy with showers that stayed mostly over higher peaks around us here, so only a trace of rain at our location, but the first rain in a week. The high was about 12 C. We are looking forward to several warmer days starting Sunday.

M.T. Cranium · 14-10-2018 6:20am

Sunday, 14 October, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Partly cloudy with longer sunny intervals in the south and east, isolated showers developing west and north, highs 14 to 16 C.

TONIGHT ... Clear and rather cool in most areas, slight chance of a brief shower in parts of the west. Lows 2 to 6 C.

MONDAY ... Partly to mostly sunny with increasing cloud by mid-day and light rain possible by evening in west and south. Highs near 14 C.

TUESDAY ... Overcast, showers or intervals of rain, turning cooler in stages, temperatures steady overnight 10 to 14 C, steady for a while in the morning then turning cooler, falling off to near 8 C later. Brisk westerly winds 50 to 80 km/hr developing.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, isolated showers, cool. Lows near 2 C and highs near 11 C.

THURSDAY ... Breezy and milder, some sunshine at first then overcast with rain by late in the day, lows 3 to 6 C and highs near 15 C.

FRIDAY ... Rain tapering to showers, windy, highs near 13 C.

OUTLOOK ... Rather mild next weekend with moderate southwest winds, showers later by Sunday afternoon or evening, turning somewhat cooler for the first part of the following week but the general trend will stay near normal for time of year, longer term outlook towards end of the month looking rather unsettled with more frequent rain returning.

My local weather on Saturday was sunny with afternoon cloudy intervals and a bit warmer than recently with highs near 15 C.

M.T. Cranium · 15-10-2018 6:37am

Monday, 15 October, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Partly to mostly sunny with increasing cloud by afternoon in western counties. Highs near 14 C.

TONIGHT ... Rain in west after midnight, spreading to east by morning. Lows near 10 C.

TUESDAY ... Overcast, showers or intervals of rain, turning cooler in stages, highs near 14 C, then turning cooler at least in western counties where temperatures will be around 8 to 10 C later. Moderate westerly winds 40 to 60 km/hr developing.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, isolated showers, cool. Lows near 2 C and highs near 11 C.

THURSDAY ... Breezy and milder, some sunshine at first then overcast with light rain near west coast by late in the day, lows 3 to 6 C and highs near 15 C.

FRIDAY ... Isolated showers, breezy, lows near 7 C and highs near 13 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Dry and mild, some sunshine each day, highs 15 to 18 C. Rain by Sunday evening and overnight into Monday morning.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Rather chilly to start the following week, milder by mid-week again.

My local weather on Sunday was sunny and the high reached 16 C. We have shaken off both the cloud and the cool temperatures for about a week now by the looks of the charts, with 20 C possible here later in the week.

Remnants of Michael dropped south of Ireland and are making a landfall this morning around northwest Spain, in a rather weakened condition fortunately.

M.T. Cranium · 16-10-2018 7:31am

Tuesday, 16 October, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy at first, showers or intervals of rain, but only prolonged or heavy in a few parts of the north, amounts there 5-10 mm but traces to 2 mm rather typical for most of central and southern counties, then turning cooler in stages by afternoon with a few more widely scattered light showers possible, highs near 14 C (16 C parts of the southeast), then turning cooler at least in western counties where temperatures will be around 8 to 10 C later this afternoon, a less pronounced cooling trend likely in the east. Moderate westerly winds 40 to 60 km/hr developing as these weak trough features move through.

TONIGHT ... Becoming clear at times, with just a few cloudy intervals and isolated showers, lows 2 to 5 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, isolated showers, cool. Lows near 2 C and highs near 11 C. Occasionally rather breezy from west to northwest but somewhat variable as weak troughs form in the westerly flow.

THURSDAY ... Breezy and milder, some sunshine at first then overcast with light rain near west coast by late in the day, lows 3 to 6 C and highs near 15 C.

FRIDAY ... Isolated showers, once again the initial cold fronts early in the day look weak and broken up on the guidance available today, but west Munster may see some steadier light rain by mid-day as the fronts stall and reverse course as developing warm fronts ahead of milder air on the weekend, breezy at times, lows near 7 C and highs near 13 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Dry and mild on Saturday, with some hazy sunshine and highs 15 to 18 C. Becoming windy and turning cooler in stages on Sunday with showers and gusty westerly winds 50 to 80 km/hr, highs 13 to 16 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Rather chilly to start the following week in a northwest wind but generally settled as strong high pressure forms to the west of Ireland, milder by mid-week again as the high pushes a little further south placing Ireland in more of a westerly flow, but eventually the flow will turn northwesterly once again repeating the cycle. The dominant feature next week will be a very strong high in the east-central Atlantic that is undergoing some retrogression (meaning it is moving slowly west away from Europe), and this could open up the floodgates to much colder air from the north for a time perhaps near the end of the month or further on into November. It seems more certain at this point that much of central Europe will turn very cold as a result of this westward shift of upper level steering currents, bringing arctic air south across Scandinavia and into Germany and nearby countries, but the extent to which that cold then affects Britain or Ireland is less evident.

Blocking is rather unusual at this time of year, late October and early November are known for their frequent rain and zonal or westerly flow, so it may be related to my thoughts about a cold winter to come if even this normally Atlantic-dominated time of year sees wintry flow patterns emerging.

My local weather has been clear and while warm enough in the mid-day sun (12 C) it could be several degrees warmer if the air wasn't perfectly calm under high pressure (no mixing down of warmer air aloft). Nights are just a little below freezing. Closer to the B.C. coast where easterly outflow is taking place, it's considerably warmer near 20 C. Eventually as this high weakens we should get up closer to 20 C here too. The milder air has pushed slightly across the Rockies now but it remains unseasonably cold from just east of Calgary to Labrador and over much of the north-central and northeastern U.S., with some places seeing record low temperatures and outbreaks of snow. The impact on the southeast U.S. is just starting to reverse the long-lasting warm spell there.

M.T. Cranium · 17-10-2018 6:40am

Wednesday, 17 October, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

A quiet spell of autumn weather lies ahead with only limited amounts of rain over the next week or two, probably a bit more sunshine than normal for the time of year, cool and sometimes frosty nights, reasonably mild days, with Saturday being a bit warmer than the rest.

TODAY ... Partly cloudy, isolated showers, cool. Highs 11 to 14 11 C. Occasionally rather breezy from west to northwest but somewhat variable as weak troughs form in the westerly flow.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, fog and mist patches, some isolated frost possible well inland. Lows -1 to +4 C.

THURSDAY ... Breezy and milder, some sunshine at first then overcast with light rain near west coast by late in the day, and highs near 15 C.

FRIDAY ... Isolated showers, partly cloudy with some sunny breaks in the southeast mainly, more chance of measurable rain in the west than elsewhere, but amounts slight in any case, lows near 6 C and highs near 13 C north to 15 C south.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Dry and mild on Saturday, with some hazy sunshine and lows 5 to 8 C, then highs 15 to 18 C. Becoming windy and turning cooler in stages on Sunday with showers and gusty westerly winds 50 to 80 km/hr, lows near 10 C and highs 13 to 16 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Dry and partly cloudy for the first few days of the following week, temperatures dropping back to around 10 C in the daytime on Monday and 12 C on Tuesday, then milder again mid-week. Nights generally rather cool with isolated frosts. The mild spell may come to a gradual end near the end of the week (26th) with slightly cooler and more unsettled weather to follow, but rainfall amounts will likely continue to be rather slight for this normally wet time of the year. Any cold outbreaks around the end of the month that may surface in discussions elsewhere seem to be headed more for central Europe than Britain or Ireland, and any changes towards a more wintry pattern will likely take several weeks to achieve, at the least.

My local weather has remained clear and cool due to the calm winds under a strong high, in fact Tuesday failed to reach 10 C locally, although other valleys in the B.C. southern interior have seen 15 to 19 C readings. As this high flattens out later today and for the rest of the week, the inversion will weaken and we will likely share in those warmer readings. But it has been gorgeous weather for viewing the autumn colours which remain vibrant and there has been almost no leaf fall due to the calm conditions for many days.

Here's how it looked earlier on Tuesday.

M.T. Cranium · 18-10-2018 7:00am

Thursday, 18 October, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Sunny with scattered frost or mist dissipating, then somewhat warmer by afternoon with increasing cloud, highs eventually reaching about 14 C. Moderate southwest winds developing later in the day.

TONIGHT ... Mostly cloudy, a little light rain at times near west coast, trace to 2 mm amounts. Lows 7 to 9 C there, 3 to 6 C further east where there could be some breaks in the overcast at times.

FRIDAY ... Cloudy with a few breaks by afternoon, scattered light rain more persistent in west, but only 1 to 3 mm expected, highs near 15 C.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud with some spells of hazy sunshine, quite mild, breezy (southwest 40 to 60 km/hr by afternoon), morning lows about 7 C and afternoon highs 15 to 18 C.

SUNDAY ... Early morning showers may be blustery for a while, winds westerly 50 to 70 km/hr, some clearing later, but turning cooler. Lows about 10 C and highs 12 to 14 C.

MONDAY ... Sunny intervals, colder. Lows near 1 C and highs 9 to 12 C.

TUESDAY ... Frost followed by some sunshine, cool. Lows -3 to +2 C then highs 10 to 14 C.

OUTLOOK ... Milder again towards second half of next week, highs reaching 16 C, then unsettled by the end of the week with stronger winds developing, temperatures may fall quite sharply at some point near the end of the month although not to wintry levels (about 5 to 8 C possibly).

My local weather remained exactly the same although a touch warmer in the sunshine on Wednesday (12 C), another frosty night now then mild hazy sunshine here on Thursday. We have another week of this ahead before any breakdown in the rather strong west coast ridge. At least Alberta and southern Saskatchewan have finally caught a break, coming out of their early winter pattern and soaring to about 20 C in sunshine, which should help get the rather late harvest finished on the prairies.

M.T. Cranium · 19-10-2018 6:42am

Friday, 19 October, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy, but there could be some sunny breaks in the mix, patchy light rain mostly confined to west and amounts quite slight (trace to 2 mm expected) ... highs around 15 C.

TONIGHT ... Some further drizzle possible, but mostly dry and partly to mostly cloudy, mild, lows about 7 C.

SATURDAY ... Hazy with some sunny spells, very mild. Highs 16 to 19 C. Winds south to southwest 50 to 70 km/hr at times.

SUNDAY ... Early morning rain, 2 to 5 mm expected, turning colder with brisk westerly winds 50 to 80 km/hr, some clearing by afternoon, morning lows near 10 C and afternoon highs near 14 C.

MONDAY ... Partly cloudy to sunny, early morning frosts, lows -2 to +2 C, then some sunny intervals, cool, highs 9 to 12 C.

TUESDAY ... Sharp frosts likely, then hazy sunshine, lows -3 to +2 C, highs 10 to 14 C.

OUTLOOK ... High pressure will settle in over Ireland for most of the period Wednesday 24th to Saturday 27th, bringing extensive fog that may persist well into the late morning in some places, some frosts, and hazy sunshine especially near coasts which will see less fog too. Highs may be held back in some places by the low cloud or fog but potentially it could reach 12 to 14 C where sunshine breaks through. Nights will be very chilly with lows -4 to +2 C. Once the high breaks down, colder air from the north will push south and temperatures may become colder in the daytime hours while the degree of frost will diminish due to the winds mostly, northerly 40 to 70 km/hr at times. Some showers may be in the mix and even some mixed early wintry types, but rather early to be confident about that yet.

My local weather featured a bit of patchy cloud from a very weak front drifting through, but it was back to clear skies later in the day, with highs about 12 C (considerably warmer all around us, our valley has limited air movement in low-sun season).

M.T. Cranium · 20-10-2018 6:36am

Saturday, 20 October, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Hazy with some sunny spells, also patchy low cloud but very mild. Highs 16 to 19 C. Winds south to southwest 50 to 70 km/hr at times by mid-day and afternoon.

TONIGHT into SUNDAY ... Overcast this evening then some early morning rain spreading rapidly east by morning, 2 to 5 mm expected, turning colder with brisk westerly winds 50 to 80 km/hr, some clearing by afternoon, morning lows near 10 C and afternoon highs near 14 C.

MONDAY ... Partly cloudy to sunny, early morning frosts, lows -2 to +3 C, then some sunny intervals, cool, highs 9 to 12 C.

TUESDAY ... Scattered frosts likely, then hazy sunshine, lows -2 to +3 C, highs 10 to 14 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Isolated frost but more widespread fog that may linger, low cloud giving way to some sunny spells, cool. Lows -1 to +4 C and highs 9 to 13 C.

THURSDAY to SATURDAY will be cool and bright days with moderate northerly winds at times, lows -2 to +3 C (cold enough for frost but it may not form each time due to dry air mass) then rather chilly days 8 to 11 C in the south, 6 to 9 C in the north.

OUTLOOK ... Around SUNDAY 28th and MONDAY 29th there may be slightly milder days again but quite prone to fog and low cloud, then another surge of colder air moving south towards the end of the month, with roughly similar temperatures to the first cold spell but perhaps more by way of cloud and mixed early winter showers in the moderate northerly winds. November is already looking a bit on the cold side of normal so it will be interesting to see if the stronger winter patterns materialize as discussed in the long-range forecast preview, or if we go back to milder weather for a time in mid-November.

My local weather on Friday remained very pleasant with just a hint of warmth in the sunshine by early afternoon, highs near 12 C. Clear overnight now with the waxing gibbous moon (really) high in the south (and with our new laws, that's not the end of it either, but yours truly just a spectator on that front).

M.T. Cranium · 21-10-2018 7:28am

Sunday, 21 October, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Mild at first with some light rain or drizzle in a moderate southwest wind, the rain ending in a few hours in the west, and around early to mid-afternoon in the east (2-3 mm total rainfalls, so not very heavy), temperatures will remain around 15 C in the light rain then will fall steadily to about 8-10 C this afternoon in the northwest, and this cooler air will arrive in the southeast by late afternoon, as winds veer to west then northwest at 40 to 70 km/hr. Sunny intervals will develop in western counties by afternoon.

TONIGHT ... Clearing, quite cold, with scattered frosts by morning, lows -2 to +3 C.

MONDAY ... Sunny with cloudy intervals, rather breezy at times (west to northwest 40 to 60 km/hr), cool. Highs 9 to 12 C.

TUESDAY ... Frost and fog patches to start the day, intervals of cloud and sunshine later, cool. Lows -3 to +2 C and highs 10 to 13 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Rather cloudy with a few breaks, lows 2 to 6 C and highs 8 to 13 C.

THURSDAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy, breezy, rain by afternoon and evening. Lows near 4 C and highs near 12 C.

FRIDAY and SATURDAY ... Windy and cold with passing showers of hail or rain, snow possible on some northern hills. Lows around -1 C and highs 4 to 8 C.

SUNDAY ... Somewhat milder again with rain developing, lows near freezing and highs near 10 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... There is some divergence between various models but some risk of a second cold outbreak to follow around the end of the month, details may remain rather vague on this until perhaps mid-week.

My local weather on Saturday featured a longer interval of morning fog than we've had in this dry spell but eventually that cleared away to full sunshine, rather cool despite that, highs around 8 C. Clear and quite cold at present, falling below freezing here overnight and more crisp autumn sunshine on Sunday.

M.T. Cranium · 22-10-2018 7:10am

Monday, 22 October, 2018

Forecast for Ireland

TODAY ... Sunny with cloudy intervals, rather breezy at times (west to northwest 40 to 60 km/hr), cool. Highs 9 to 12 C. There may be isolated showers near northern coasts.

TONIGHT ... A mixture of clear skies and patchy low cloud, resulting in some mist or fog forming. Frost in a few isolated areas but temperatures may be quite variable from place to place depending on cloud cover. Lows -2 to +4 C.

TUESDAY ... A little frost and more widespread fog patches to start the day, intervals of cloud and sunshine later, cool. Highs 10 to 13 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Rather cloudy with a few breaks, lows 2 to 6 C and highs 8 to 13 C.

THURSDAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy, breezy, rain by afternoon and evening. Lows near 4 C and highs near 12 C. Turning sharply colder from north to south late afternoon to evening hours, with winds veering to northwesterly 50 to 70 km/hr overnight.

FRIDAY and SATURDAY ... Windy and cold with passing showers of hail or rain, snow possible on some northern hills. Lows around -1 C and highs 4 to 8 C. Winds northwest to north 50 to 80 km/hr at times will add considerable chill in more exposed areas near east and north facing coasts.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, occasional light rain developing, after lows near freezing with highs near 10 C.

OUTLOOK ... Although the colder air will not be fully pushed away, it will tend to moderate back towards more average temperatures of about 11 or 12 C daytime, with nights remaining rather chilly, and there could be outbreaks of rain at times towards the end of the month with potential for heavier falls 31 October or 1 November. The pattern after that appears likely to return slowly to more Atlantic-dominated but with cold air not far away most of the time, it could become quite an active frontal zone.

My local weather on Sunday was clear and crisp again with highs around 10 C. We have one more day of this sunny spell left to enjoy then increasing cloud to mid-week followed by rain and fog.

M.T. Cranium · 23-10-2018 7:30am

Tuesday, 23 October, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Some hazy sunshine at times, but also some cloud, generally light winds except moderate westerly near some northern coasts, and dry, with somewhat milder temperatures, highs 12 to 15 C.

TONIGHT ... Intervals of cloud and clear skies, then widespread mist developing, lows 3 to 7 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Rather cloudy with a few brighter spells in the coastal southeast and south, lows 2 to 6 C and highs 8 to 13 C, coolest in parts of Ulster and north central counties, mildest near south and west coasts.

THURSDAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy, breezy, rain by afternoon and evening. Lows near 4 C and highs near 12 C. Turning sharply colder from north to south late afternoon to evening hours, with winds veering from westerly to northwesterly 50 to 70 km/hr overnight.

FRIDAY and SATURDAY ... Windy and cold with passing showers of hail or rain, snow possible on some northern hills. Lows around -1 C and highs 4 to 8 C. Winds northwest to north 50 to 80 km/hr at times will add considerable chill in more exposed areas near east and north facing coasts. Some sunny intervals, more frequent near south coast.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, occasional light rain developing late in the day, lows -2 to +2 C, with highs 8 to 10 C.

MONDAY ... Occasional rain, possibly sleet on high ground, cold, highs around 7 or 8 C at best (3 to 5 C on higher ground).

OUTLOOK ... A cool, moist air mass will hang around for several days next week with the threat of strong east winds developing and some steady rain, a little too mild for sleet or snow except perhaps on summits of higher mountains, but raw and very chilly nevertheless, temperatures in a narrow range from about 4 to 7 C much of the time. This pattern will slowly yield to milder air masses sluggishly pushing back from the Atlantic, with frontal rains and fog, temperatures coming up slightly to around 10 C eventually (by about 3-4 Nov). The pattern beyond that looks unsettled with more outbreaks of chilly arctic air masses that will bring temperatures back down to near 3 to 5 C at times.

My local weather has reached the end of the clear spell but it should stay dry here under cloud on Tuesday. The high with sunshine on Monday was only about 7 C, we avoided fog but some other places around the region had a full day of fog or low cloud due to the almost complete calm that has persisted here for a week or more. Meanwhile, intense Hurricane Willa is moving towards southwest coastal Mexico to make a landfall between Mazatlan and San Blas late today or tonight (local time, it will be Wednesday morning in Ireland when that happens). The storm is as intense as Michael was in the Gulf of Mexico, but looks ready to weaken soon, so its landfall may be less catastrophic, also there is a rather large area of nearly unpopulated coastline where it could make landfall with any luck. However, it has to pass over a small offshore island (Isla Maria Madre) to get there, so the 1,200 people on that island are getting ready for very strong winds by morning.

M.T. Cranium · 24-10-2018 7:29am

Wednesday, 24 October, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Hazy with a mixture of cloud and filtered sunshine through higher cloud, mild, highs 12 to 15 C.

TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy, some drizzle at times near north coast, lows 5 to 7 C.

THURSDAY ... Increasing cloud, rain developing from north to south in the late afternoon and evening, moderate westerly winds veering to northwest near evening time, 50 to 70 km/hr. Highs 10 to 13 C (milder in south).

FRIDAY ... Windy and cold, some sunshine especially inland and near south coast, passing showers of hail or rain (snow possible on high terrain), winds northwest to north 50 to 80 km/hr adding chill to lows near 2 C and highs near 7 C.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy, windy and cold, north to northeast 50 to 80 km/hr, some bands of showers may contain some hail or sleet, and produce some thunder, while other places remain dry with occasional sunny breaks. Lows near -1 C inland, +2 C near coasts, and highs near 7 C. This pattern could produce Irish Sea streamers (shower bands) coming close to Wicklow and Wexford at times.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, cold, less windy. Lows -3 to +2 C and highs 6 to 9 C. Some rain in the northwest by late in the day.

MONDAY ... A cold rain seems likely, and it could turn to sleet at times on hills. Temperatures steady near 4 or 5 C, to 8 C southwest coast.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The colder air will stick around with disturbances forming and spreading rain or sleet into some parts of the country, details remain a bit uncertain on where and when, but most of the week from 29 October to 2 November and into the following weekend will be rather raw and sometimes damp, and there is a risk of stronger winds developing at least once during that time. Further on into November, a gradual return to more normal temperatures is likely as the flow turns back to the west for a while.

My local weather continued dry with increasing cloud but plenty of sunshine in the morning, highs near 8 C. Hurricane Willa moved inland south of Mazatlan after hitting the offshore island Maria Madre fairly hard (no damage reports that I have seen). The circulation from this Pacific hurricane will quickly move across northern Mexico and run into a stalled front in Texas adding a lot of moisture to what is already available for rainfall there. The storm will then become a non-tropical low and move quickly northeast to become a coastal storm in the eastern United States by the weekend or so.

M.T. Cranium · 25-10-2018 7:37am

Thursday, 25 October, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Increasing cloud, rain developing from north to south in the late afternoon and evening, moderate westerly winds veering to northwest near evening time, 50 to 70 km/hr. Highs 10 to 13 C (milder in south).

TONIGHT ... Rain will move quickly southwards with a sharp drop in temperatures around midnight, as winds increase from northwest to north at about 60 to 80 km/hr. Some clearing will follow with bands of mixed wintry showers feeding south into Ulster, Connacht and parts of west Munster. Lows will reach about 1 or 2 C in the north, 2 to 4 C in the south.

FRIDAY ... Windy and cold, some sunshine especially inland and near south coast, passing showers of hail or rain (snow possible on high terrain), winds northwest to north 50 to 80 km/hr adding chill to lows near 2 C and highs near 7 C.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy, windy and cold, north to northeast 50 to 80 km/hr, some bands of showers may contain some hail or sleet, and produce some thunder, while other places remain dry with occasional sunny breaks. Lows near -1 C inland, +2 C near coasts, and highs near 7 C. This pattern could produce Irish Sea streamers (shower bands) coming close to Wicklow and Wexford at times.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, cold, less windy. Lows -3 to +2 C producing some sharp and lingering frosts, icy patches on some roads, and highs only 6 to 9 C. Some rain will reach the northwest coast by late in the day.

MONDAY ... A cold rain seems likely to continue making slow southeastward progress, and it could turn to sleet at times on hills in north Connacht and west Ulster. Temperatures steady near 4 or 5 C, to 8 C southwest coast and some parts of the south and east where the rain may be slower to arrive, amounts 5 to 15 mm where it does set in.

TUESDAY ... Rain or sleet clearing southeast, rather cold with lows -1 to +2 C and highs 7 to 10 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Variable cloud, cool, lows near 1 C and highs near 9 C.

OUTLOOK ... Milder (11-13 C) with southwest winds and some rain at times later in the week (and in the first two days of November) then another cold outbreak expected to arrive on the weekend of 3-4 November with temperatures falling back to 3 to 6 C range. It looks quite unsettled past that cold spell with frequent rain, and the end of the sixteen-day GFS model run introduces a chance for quite heavy rainfall (which would arrive around 11-12 November).

My local weather on Wednesday was mostly cloudy with sprinkles of light rain at times, high near 12 C, then partly cloudy overnight with some views of the full moon (which was timed for 19:46h Irish time, last evening). The remnants of Hurricane Willa ended up assisting with the creation of a new low in the Gulf of Mexico which will become a fairly powerful storm on the east coast of the U.S. within three days. Meanwhile, the islands of Saipan and Tinian were raked by a super-typhoon (Yutu) around twelve hours ago (it was early Thursday morning there local time) with catastrophic damage reported. The super-typhoon is moving west towards northern Luzon in the Philippines but is about five days away from that region and is forecast to weaken somewhat before arrival there.

M.T. Cranium · 26-10-2018 7:04am

Friday, 26 October, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Windy and cold, some sunshine especially inland and near south coast, passing showers of hail or rain (snow possible on high terrain), winds northwest to north 50 to 80 km/hr adding chill to highs near 7 C.

TONIGHT ... Mixed wintry showers near north and west coast (more sleet or snow potential at higher elevations), very cold and windy, winds northerly 50 to 80 km/hr in exposed locations, lows -1 to +2 C.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy, windy and cold, north to northeast 50 to 80 km/hr, some bands of showers may contain some hail or sleet, and produce some thunder, while other places remain dry with occasional sunny breaks. Lows near -1 C inland, +2 C near coasts, and highs near 7 C. This pattern will likely produce Irish Sea streamers (shower bands) coming close to Wicklow and Wexford at times, even south Dublin could be affected, once again precipitation from these will vary mostly by elevation with sleet or snow possible above 300 metres, hail or rain more likely lower down, and some thunder quite likely if they hit land.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, cold, less windy. Lows -3 to +2 C producing some sharp and lingering frosts, icy patches on some roads, and highs only 6 to 9 C. Some rain will reach the northwest coast by evening or overnight.

MONDAY ... A cold rain seems likely to continue making slow southeastward progress, and it could turn to sleet at times on hills in north Connacht and west Ulster. Temperatures steady near 4 or 5 C, to 8 C southwest coast and some parts of the south and east where the rain may be slower to arrive, amounts 5 to 15 mm where it does set in. Some sunny breaks are possible in the east before cloud slowly moves in, the rain may fragment to patchy drizzle by the time it finally appears in the east and that could be towards evening.

TUESDAY ... Some leftover light rain or sleet clearing southeast, then variable cloud and continuing rather cold with lows -1 to +2 C and highs 7 to 10 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Variable cloud, cool, lows near 1 C and highs near 9 C. Some risk of sleety showers in a few places.

OUTLOOK ... Milder (11-13 C) with southwest winds and some rain at times later in the week (and in the first two days of November) then another cold outbreak expected to arrive on the weekend of 3-4 November with temperatures falling back to 3 to 6 C range. It looks quite unsettled past that cold spell with frequent rain, and some of that may turn heavier.

My local weather on Thursday brought some rain and mild temperatures around 12 C. Heavy rain is moving through the south central U.S. as a coastal low takes shape tonight into Saturday off the east coast, where rain will be heavy in places, with the threat of snow over higher ground in the inland northeastern states. Tropical storm Oscar could form at any time soon in the subtropical Atlantic but it's not expected to pose any threat to land.

M.T. Cranium · 27-10-2018 7:01am

Saturday, 27 October, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Partly cloudy, windy and cold, winds north to northeast 50 to 80 km/hr, highs 5 to 8 C ... some bands of showers may contain some hail or sleet, and produce some thunder, while other places remain dry with occasional sunny breaks. At first the showers will be mainly over the western half of the country. Later on, bands of showers over the Irish Sea may begin to drift closer to the Wicklow coast and eventually may move inland between south Dublin and Wexford, once again precipitation from these will vary mostly by elevation with sleet or snow possible above 300 metres, hail or rain more likely lower down, and some thunder quite likely if they hit land.

TONIGHT ... Any remnant mixed wintry showers will die off, with clearing skies and a sharp frost will develop, lows -4 to +2 C. Winds still quite brisk near coasts but fading to almost calm by morning inland.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, cold, less windy. Lows -4 to +2 C producing some sharp and lingering frosts, icy patches on some roads, and highs only 6 to 9 C. Some rain or sleet may reach the northwest coast and some hills inland by evening or overnight.

MONDAY ... A cold rain seems likely to continue making very slow southeastward progress, and it could turn to sleet at times on hills in north Connacht and west Ulster. Temperatures steady near 4 or 5 C, to 8 C southwest coast and some parts of the south and east where any rain that does arrive may drift inland from the east, amounts 5 to 15 mm possible in western coastal counties, much less elsewhere. Some sunny breaks are possible in the east before cloud increases by afternoon.

TUESDAY ... Some leftover light rain or sleet showers at times near southeast coast and over higher terrain throughout, then variable cloud and continuing rather cold with lows -1 to +2 C and highs 7 to 10 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Variable cloud, cool, lows near 1 C and highs near 9 C. Some risk of sleety showers in a few places.

THURSDAY ... Windy with intervals of rain, heavy at times, southwest winds 60 to 100 km/hr, highs near 11 C.

FRIDAY ... Windy, showers, highs near 9 C.

OUTLOOK ... Next weekend (3-4 Nov) is now looking quite stormy with strong southwest winds and rain likely, not overly mild either, 6 or 7 degrees at best. This unsettled pattern looks quite entrenched with temperatures slightly below normal much of the time, not cold enough for really wintry conditions but a raw, cold autumnal pattern.

My local weather was rather like that on Friday with occasional rain and highs near 8 C.

M.T. Cranium · 28-10-2018 7:44am

Sunday, 28 October, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Mostly sunny but cold, some lingering frost in shaded areas, with a slight chance of mixed wintry showers over higher ground in the southeast. Winds much lighter than the past two days, but sometimes adding a little chill to highs only reaching 7 to 9 C.

TONIGHT ... Another very cold night likely in eastern and some central counties, increasing high cloud and lows near -3 C in rural areas. Some heavy frost may form with icy roads possible in a few locations. Further west, thicker cloud cover will keep temperatures near or a little above freezing.

MONDAY ... Some light rain at times near west coast, misty ... overcast for most other places, although some brighter intervals possible in the east. Continuing quite cold. Highs 6 to 9 C, possibly reaching 10 C on west coast.

TUESDAY ... Variable cloud, some areas of showery light rain near west coast, generally dry further east. Lows -2 to +3 C and highs 7 to 10 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Moderate southwest winds developing, still rather cool with outbreaks of light rain, lows near 3 C and highs near 10 C.

THURSDAY ... Milder, southwest winds, rain becoming heavy at times late in the day. Highs near 12 C.

FRIDAY ... Very windy (possibly stormy), rain and gale force southwest to west winds seem fairly likely, temperatures 8 to 10 C, with most of the guidance bringing remnants of Oscar, which is going to have some time as a hurricane (now just a tropical storm southeast of Bermuda), and phasing that storm with a second low approaching Ireland from the west. As far as any named storm, this could be Oscar, or it could be Deirdre (the next name available for Irish and UK weather agencies to use) if Oscar follows a slower course. Keep in touch with the forecasts as we move forward, this situation is not really totally "carved in stone" given the range of outcomes possible.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Windy and cold after the storm passes by next weekend, then further active Atlantic frontal systems with strong winds and rain at times, not getting particularly mild as the flow comes more out of the west than the southwest.

My local weather on Saturday turned sunny with a high near 10 C. It's back to rain for us on Sunday and Monday though.

(just a reminder, your clocks should be turned back one hour today, although we have one more week of daylight saving time in North America so right now I am just seven hours behind instead of the usual eight -- so the forecasts will appear earlier for a week at least).

M.T. Cranium · 29-10-2018 7:40am

Monday, 29 October, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

The latest guidance for the potential storm at the end of the week is slowing down its arrival somewhat to Saturday morning, although it may be quite windy for most of Friday before it arrives in full force. This situation is by no means "carved in stone" yet since we're dealing with a very distant hurricane (Oscar) that may continue to challenge the forecast models as it has been doing for the past 24 hours. For a while, the model consensus shifted away from Oscar making it all the way to the main westerlies in time, and showed it backing away to the south again. If that were to happen, a separate weather system would still bring some strong winds to Ireland around Friday or early Saturday. But this morning the theme has returned to a gradual approach of the hurricane's remnant low towards west coast counties of Ireland Friday night, with closest approach and strongest winds now most likely to occur on Saturday morning.

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, some light rain in western counties, staying dry much of the time in central and eastern counties although some patchy drizzle is possible. Caution is advised in north central counties this morning for patchy black ice conditions on some side roads, as temperatures are near -2 C in some areas. Eventually today's highs will reach about 7 C in the east and 10 C in the west, with generally light south winds near the west coast and easterly breezes elsewhere.

TONIGHT ... Cloud with some clear spells, lows -2 to +4 C. Occasional drizzle may continue near west coast which will be the mildest region.

TUESDAY ... Variable cloud, some outbreaks of light rain mostly near west and south coasts, highs 7 to 10 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, showers, lows -2 to +3 C, highs 7 to 10 C.

THURSDAY ... Some rain at times, lows -1 to +4 C and highs 7 to 11 C.

FRIDAY ... Becoming windy, with rain at times, winds will depend on how intense the approaching low turns out to be, likely to be increasing gradually to 70 km/hr by late afternoon or evening from south to southwest. Highs near 11 C.

SATURDAY ... At this point, the stormy conditions are most likely to hit around sunrise on Saturday with gale to storm force southwest winds quite possible (this to be confirmed later in the week). Gusts to at least 110 km/hr appear quite possible, and highs near 10 C but turning colder again later in the day, with rain turning to mixed wintry showers in strong westerly winds and falling temperatures.

OUTLOOK ... Fast moving disturbances will bring further bouts of rain and wind for several days after the storm (Oscar if the hurricane remnant low is involved, possibly named Deirdre if not, but that name may be needed soon afterwards if the weekend low is indeed Oscar. Temperatures will average rather cold for mid-November but each passing low could bring in a few hours of milder temperatures 8 to 10 C, otherwise it will be in the 3 to 7 C range much of the time, so precipitation could be sleety or mixed wintry showers on higher ground.

My local weather on Sunday was overcast with periods of rain and highs near 10 C.

M.T. Cranium · 30-10-2018 7:37am

Tuesday, 30 October, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Very cold this morning in Leinster where skies have cleared, and the sunshine may last to mid-day with frost slow to clear. Cloudy most other parts of the country with patchy light rain, possibly sleet on higher ground, but eventually this cloud will begin to spread back to the east as temperatures rise slowly in the east. Highs will range from 6 in some parts of Leinster and east Ulster to 10 C near the south and west coasts.

TONIGHT ... Variable cloud, rather cold still with sleety showers possible, lows -2 to +3 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy, outbreaks of rain (sleet on some higher ground), highs 7 to 10 C. Moderate southwest to westerly winds developing by afternoon.

THURSDAY ... Partly cloudy, some outbreaks of light rain possible, lows -3 to +2 C and highs near 9 C.

FRIDAY ... Breezy and much milder (briefly), winds south to southwest 50 to 80 km/hr by afternoon and some rain possible, especially towards coastal Connacht. Highs 12 to 14 C.

SATURDAY ... Windy and turning colder. The remnant low of Hurricane Oscar is currently expected to be just far enough away as it moves between Donegal and Iceland to prevent damaging winds, but some gusts to 110 km/hr are quite possible in coastal areas. This outlook may change yet again before the actual event, but for now, it does not look quite as extreme as it might have been, on the track being shown a few days ago. With the strong winds, mixed wintry showers will develop over higher terrain, just rain or hail for most though, and temperatures slowly falling to about 5 C.

OUTLOOK ... Several more disturbances are likely to follow with bouts of rain and strong westerly winds, with quite cold conditions between the frontal systems. Timing on these will likely change from one day's guidance to the next, as they are racing along in quite a fast westerly flow, for now, it appears that Sunday night into Monday, and again around mid-week, will see the unsettled periods. Temperatures will be generally in the 3 to 7 C range, perhaps peaking around 10 C when frontal waves move through.

My local weather on Monday was mostly cloudy with occasional light rain, and a high near 9 C.

Hurricane Oscar is located to the east of Bermuda this morning, and is a category 2 hurricane expected to stay at that intensity until it runs into colder water in the central Atlantic on Thursday. After that, it should be an extratropical low with 50-70 knot winds near its core but those will be several hundred miles off the Donegal coast on Saturday if the models are right at the present time.

M.T. Cranium · 31-10-2018 8:03am

Wednesday, 31 October, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy, showery outbreaks of rain (sleet possible on some higher ground), highs 7 to 10 C. Moderate southwest to westerly winds developing by afternoon. The most active band of showers will be moving into eastern counties around mid-day to early afternoon after giving western counties scattered 2-5 mm amounts this morning, so perhaps some sunshine at times by this afternoon around Galway and Mayo.

TONIGHT ... Rather cold with some clearing, fog patches, lows -3 to +2 C.

THURSDAY ... Partly cloudy, some rather isolated outbreaks of light rain possible, lows -3 to +2 C and highs near 9 C.

FRIDAY ... Breezy and much milder (briefly), winds south to southwest 50 to 80 km/hr by afternoon and some rain possible, especially towards coastal Connacht. Highs 12 to 14 C. Temperatures staying very mild all night in most areas in strong south to southwest winds.

SATURDAY ... Windy and turning a little colder. The remnant low of Hurricane Oscar will probably be just far enough away as it moves between Donegal and Iceland to prevent damaging winds, but some gusts from the southwest to 110 km/hr are quite possible in coastal areas, 90 km/hr in most other places. With the strong winds, temperatures will slowly fall off in western counties to about 8 C, while eastern counties may stay quite mild most of the day (11 or 12 C). The rain overnight will ease to scattered showers on Saturday, about 10 to 15 mm is likely on average.

SUNDAY ... Cloudy, rain developing, possibly rather windy again in southeast counties and some chance of heavy rain developing. Highs about 10 C.

MONDAY ... Rain tapering to showers or drizzle, highs near 9 C.

OUTLOOK ... Further rain at times during the week, possibly heavy, and blustery southwest winds, temperatures now expected to remain near or a little above normal (Oscar has done a bit of work to rebuild the jet stream or vice versa). There are signs of briefly colder conditions around mid-month but much of the first half of November looks rather typical, plenty of cloud, rain and gusty winds.

My local weather on Tuesday was misty with occasional light showers and highs near 11 C.

M.T. Cranium · 01-11-2018 7:48am

Thursday, 1 November, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Partly cloudy, isolated showers, some sleety on higher ground ... some lingering frost in central counties, patches of black ice may be hazardous on some secondary roads, eventually temperatures will reach about 7 or 8 C.

TONIGHT ... Some clear skies in east may allow a sharp frost to form, lows -4 to +1 C, while increasing cloud further west will keep temperatures there around 2 to 4 degrees.

FRIDAY ... Mostly cloudy except for some brighter intervals in the morning in the east, rain developing near Atlantic coasts, winds increasing slowly to reach southerly 60 to 90 km/hr by evening in western counties. Temperatures will be slowly climbing all day and into the overnight hours with readings near 7 C at mid-afternoon but 10 to 13 C by midnight.

SATURDAY ... Windy and mild, some further rain bringing total accumulations to 5 to 10 mm, winds veering slowly to southwest 60 to 100 km/hr in more exposed areas, some higher gusts around western Mayo and Donegal. Highs 12 to 14 C.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, somewhat cooler, chance of light rain at times near south coast by afternoon and evening, but probably a rather dry day elsewhere. Lows near 4 C and highs near 9 or 10 C.

MONDAY ... Partly cloudy, breezy, lows near freezing and highs near 10 C.

TUESDAY ... Windy and rather mild with rain, possibly rather heavy at times. Highs near 12 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Unsettled and rather mild with occasional bouts of strong southwest winds and heavier rain, with little change in that pattern expected until about the middle of November.

My local weather on Wednesday was overcast with some rain and rather chilly, highs only about 6 C. Snow was falling about 300 metres higher up in the local hills.

M.T. Cranium · 02-11-2018 7:33am

Friday, 2 November, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Sunny intervals this morning in eastern counties, becoming mostly cloudy around mid-day as cloud already moving into the west arrives, then some rain developing near Atlantic coasts, as winds increase gradually to reach southerly 60 to 90 km/hr by evening in western counties. Temperatures will be slowly climbing all day and into the overnight hours with readings near 7 C at mid-afternoon but 10 to 13 C by midnight.

TONIGHT ... Breezy and mild, temperatures steady around 10 to 13 C, occasional rain, winds southerly 50 to 80 km/hr.

SATURDAY ... Windy and mild, some further rain bringing total accumulations to 5 to 10 mm, winds veering slowly to southwest 60 to 100 km/hr in more exposed areas, some higher gusts possible around western Mayo and Donegal. Highs 12 to 14 C. (Ex hurricane Oscar will produce stronger winds in marine areas northwest of Donegal Bay although the storm is stronger at forecast time in the central Atlantic, than it will be by its closest approach).

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, somewhat cooler, chance of light rain at times near south coast by afternoon and evening, but probably a rather dry day elsewhere. Lows near 4 C and highs near 9 or 10 C.

MONDAY ... Partly cloudy, breezy, lows near freezing and highs near 10 C.

TUESDAY ... Windy and rather mild with rain, possibly rather heavy at times. Highs near 12 C.

OUTLOOK ... Unsettled with frequent intervals of rain, cloud and occasionally gusty winds, although nothing too extraordinary considering that it's November, so more or less a "normal" sort of pattern for the time being.

My local weather was rather wet on Thursday with fog and rain, highs about 8 C. We are going to see some slight improvements but not all the way back to the long dry spell in mid-October. Snow has been falling above 800 metres (above sea level) in this region and mountain highways are either slow for travel or closed.

M.T. Cranium · 03-11-2018 7:24am

Saturday, 3 November, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Windy and mild, a band of showery rain bringing total accumulations to 5 to 15 mm, reaching eastern counties later this morning to mid-day, with strong winds veering slowly to southwest 60 to 100 km/hr in more exposed areas, and some higher gusts possible around western Mayo and Donegal. Highs 12 to 15 C. (Ex hurricane Oscar will produce stronger winds of force 10-11 on the Beaufort scale in marine areas northwest of Donegal Bay and there will be some large swells and breaking waves on exposed coasts around Achill and Donegal).

TONIGHT ... Rain dying out with partial clearing, fog patches, lows 5 to 8 C.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, somewhat cooler, chance of light rain at times near south coast by afternoon and evening, but probably a rather dry day elsewhere. Highs 10 to 12 C. About 5-10 mm of rain expected in the southeast late afternoon and evening.

MONDAY ... Partly cloudy, breezy, lows near freezing and highs near 10 C.

TUESDAY ... Windy and rather mild with rain, possibly rather heavy at times. Highs near 12 C. Southerly winds 60 to 90 km/hr at times. Potential for 10-25 mm of rain.

WEDNESDAY ... Some further rain, not as mild, highs near 8 C.

OUTLOOK ... Two or three more active frontal systems will sweep in behind the previous one and bring further rainfalls of 10-20 mm around Thursday and next weekend (10th-11th). After that, high pressure over Russia will begin to expand its influence west and the unsettled trend will likely give way to a dry spell although it could remain reasonably mild as winds come in more from the southeast than a colder easterly direction.

My local weather on Friday featured some bursts of heavy rain and while I don't measure rainfall it seemed like 30 or 40 mm had fallen by the time some clearing skies arrived in the late afternoon. Highs reached about 10 C. There is another heavy rainfall producing front near the east coast of the U.S. that brought severe storms to parts of the Washington D.C. region earlier Friday.

M.T. Cranium · 04-11-2018 8:13am

Sunday, 4 November, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Some sunny breaks this morning as winds continue to ease, although still a few widely scattered showers in western counties, then increasing cloud during the afternoon leading to rain near the south and southeast coasts, highs 11 to 13 C.

TONIGHT ... Rain persistent in south and east, 20 to 30 mm could fall in some areas, more of a drizzly intermittent light rain in west and north with much less accumulation (2 to 10 mm). Lows 8 to 10 C. Fog developing on higher ground.

MONDAY ... The rain is now expected to continue through the morning in Leinster and parts of east Munster, while a gradual clearing develops in far north and west. There may be some sunny breaks following the end of the rainfall but it will tend to become foggy after sunset with the moist ground surfaces. Highs 9 to 12 C.

TUESDAY ... Rain becoming heavy at times in south, a further 10-20 mm likely. This rain will once again be more showery and give smaller accumulations in some parts of the west and north. Moderate southerly winds 50 to 80 km/hr during the morning will ease later.

WEDNESDAY ... Cloudy with a few breaks, cool with occasional outbreaks of light rain, then another heavier spell towards evening, lows about 5 C and highs about 8 C.

THURSDAY to SUNDAY ... Very unsettled with frequent rain and occasional strong south to southwest winds with several frontal systems lining up to move quickly through, in a pattern like this at four to seven days, timing can change so the main point to underline is the unsettled theme of the period with temperatures staying close to 8 or 9 C throughout. There could be some very strong winds by the weekend of the 10th and 11th. If that strong wind event develops, it could turn a bit colder for two or three days afterwards, but not unusually cold by mid-November standards.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... It doesn't get any better looking further ahead, with more strong disturbances racing in from the west during the following week(s). The total rainfall expected during the next two weeks may be quite a large total especially in east Munster and the midlands, but so far the models seem to be indicating higher potential in Wales and northwest England where serious flooding looks to be a possibility by mid-month (reminded somewhat of November 2009 when this happened but Ireland was certainly included in the brunt of that rainfall event, this one may not draw in quite such a powerful draw from the subtropical air masses).

My local weather on Saturday was cloudy with drizzle at times but light enough to encourage a bit of yard work (most of the leaves have come down here now but they are soaked by all the rain). The high was about 8 C.

M.T. Cranium · 05-11-2018 7:59am

Monday, 5 November, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Rain will continue to fragment to patchy drizzle during the morning, with some clearing possible by mid-day in parts of central and eastern counties, while more light rain appears near the west coast this afternoon. Highs 9 to 12 C.

TONIGHT ... Rain becoming heavier towards morning, 10-20 mm likely in many parts of the south and central, eastern counties. Lows 6 to 8 C.

TUESDAY ... Moderate southerly winds 40-70 km/hr will tend to die off during the day with a slow clearing trend edging inland from the west coast. It will then turn foggy in many areas after dark. Highs 8 to 11 C.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY ... Rather cool and mostly cloudy with brief brighter intervals, outbreaks of light rain but some heavier rain briefly on Wednesday night. Highs both days about 8 C. Morning lows about 5 C.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, isolated showers, lows -1 to +3 C and highs near 9 C.

SATURDAY ... Early morning strong winds and heavy rain possible, then breezy with further showers. Details of this disturbance may change but for now would expect wind gusts of about 100 km/hr so not expected to be too extreme by November standards. Highs around 11 C but temperatures falling steadily later Saturday.

OUTLOOK ... Rather cool for several days with partly cloudy skies and isolated showers, then a return to more unsettled and at times possibly stormy conditions around mid-month.

My local weather on Sunday started out with heavy rain but it cleared up nicely around lunch time with highs reaching 10 C.

M.T. Cranium · 06-11-2018 8:24am

Tuesday, 6 November, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... A sharply defined front is making steady progress east into the midlands and will reach the east coast around mid-day. Heavy bursts of rain and even a weak thunderstorm will accompany this front with gusty southeast to south winds 50 to 70 km/hr ahead of it, 15-25 mm of rain during its passage possibly flooding some roadways briefly. After its passage, variable cloud and some further light rain will move from west to east. Highs about 13 C ahead of the front, 10 or 11 C in western counties.

TONIGHT ... Some further showers and turning fresher with west to northwest winds picking up towards morning, lows 5 to 8 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Intervals of cloud and sunshine, passing showers, and perhaps an interval of heavier rain mid-afternoon, with more to follow in the evening. Highs 8 to 11 C.

THURSDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, lows 2 to 5 C and highs 8 to 11 C.

FRIDAY ... Wet and windy, highs near 11 C. Potential for 20-30 mm rain and southwest winds 70 to 110 km/hr.

OUTLOOK ... Rather cool and slightly unsettled during the weekend of 10th-11th and into Monday 12th. More strong winds and rain likely around Tuesday to Thursday of the following week. Highs throughout 8 to 10 C. Not much if any frost likely.

My local weather on Monday was overcast and chilly, with a low cloud ceiling. Rain started to fall and snow could be seen just above our elevation by sunset (we are now back to standard time so it's now getting quite dark around 4 p.m.). Highs only about 5 C.

M.T. Cranium · 07-11-2018 8:14am

Wednesday, 7 November, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Rain will continue in eastern counties to mid-day or early afternoon before briefly ending but more rain will then arrive from the south west by late in the day. Elsewhere, some sunny breaks at first, then outbreaks of rain, highs generally about 9 C.

TONIGHT ... Rain becoming showery then ending, some clearing by dawn, lows 2 to 5 C.

THURSDAY ... Partly cloudy, showers, moderate southwest winds at times, highs near 10 C.

FRIDAY ... Windy and wet, 10 to 20 mm rainfalls, winds southwest 60 to 100 km/hr with higher gusts possible, rain heavy at times becoming more showery by afternoon. Highs near 11 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Partly cloudy, slightly cooler again with isolated showers, moderate westerly winds, lows 2-4 C and highs 8-10 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Milder mid-week, chance of some heavier rain especially in western counties, then a dry interval may follow with somewhat cooler temperatures although staying near normal for November.

My local weather on Tuesday was overcast with a few brighter intervals, and there was some rain by afternoon, highs near 7 C.

M.T. Cranium · 08-11-2018 8:24am

Thursday, 8 November, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Partly cloudy at first, then more overcast by mid-day with rain moving into southeast then up the east coast during the afternoon. About 10 to 15 mm is expected by this evening in those areas, but further west some places will remain dry and at most there will be some light scattered showers. Highs around 10 C.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy, becoming windy around midnight, rain becoming heavy near southwest coast, lows 6 to 8 C.

FRIDAY ... Windy with intervals of heavy rain, 20 mm on average is expected, and winds south to southwest 60 to 100 km/hr at times, easing slightly later in the day with variable cloud and scattered showers following the end of steady rainfall. Highs about 11 C.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy, passing showers, some brighter intervals too, lows near 4 C and highs near 9 C, moderate southwest winds at about 50 to 60 km/hr.

SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy, a few showers, lows near 3 C and highs near 9 C.

MONDAY ... Some sunny intervals, highs near 10 C.

OUTLOOK ... Milder mid-week with chance of heavy rainfall in western counties, highs 11 to 13 C, then somewhat cooler with a few dry days, eventually back to the unsettled theme as we pass mid-month.

My local weather on Wednesday was rather windy and cool with highs near 6 C, but at least we saw some sunshine for a change. We are expecting a couple of clear, cool days followed by light snow, although I can see fresh snow that fell yesterday, from my window, lying about 500 metres higher up the local hills. We have yet to see any snow at our elevation (which is 500 metres above sea level).

M.T. Cranium · 09-11-2018 7:58am

Friday, 9 November, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Windy with outbreaks of rain becoming heavier as they move gradually east, reaching the east coast by early to mid afternoon although some lighter rain is likely before this arrives. Some parts of north and east Connacht, west Ulster, and Leinster may see 20-25 mm of rain, other areas closer to 15 mm. Winds southerly 60 to 100 km/hr with some higher gusts possible, then slowly veering to southwest this afternoon and abating somewhat, with partly cloudy skies to follow, and isolated showers. Highs 11 to 13 C.

TONIGHT ... Breezy, a few more passing showers, winds southwest 40 to 70 km/hr, lows 5 to 7 C.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy, a few passing showers, moderate southwest winds 40 to 60 km/hr and highs near 11 C.

SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy, isolated showers, lows 3 to 6 C and highs 8 to 10 C.

MONDAY ... Sunny intervals, isolated showers mostly in north, lows 2 to 5 C and highs 9 to 12 C.

TUESDAY ... Mild with some rain at times, heavier in west coast counties. Lows near 6 C and highs near 13 C.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY will continue mild but the rain may back off into the Atlantic as a southeast wind flow develops, highs will continue in the 11 to 13 C range.

OUTLOOK ... About a week of relatively mild and sometimes unsettled weather will follow, then eventually the continental colder air masses present throughout will start to move west and could clip at least eastern counties of Ireland with somewhat colder air, but this is a long way off yet, so it may change considerably closer to the time (in either direction).

My local weather on Thursday was sunny and quite cold, frost lingered all day in shaded spots and the high was about 4 C. We are expecting a light snowfall to begin here this afternoon and then more clear and cool weather on the weekend once that moves southeast. The system is weak but looks like it wants to develop gradually over the plains states this weekend into a snowfall event for parts of the Great Lakes region by Sunday-Monday.

M.T. Cranium · 10-11-2018 7:36am

Saturday, 10 November, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Partly cloudy, a few passing showers, more frequent in western counties where one or two could become heavy, slight risk of hail or thunder, and moderate southwest winds 40 to 60 km/hr with highs near 11 C.

TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy, some lingering showers and misty with some local fog patches, lows 3 to 6 C.

SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy, isolated showers, breezy with south to southwest winds increasing to 50 to 70 km/hr by afternoon, lows 3 to 6 C and highs 8 to 10 C.

MONDAY ... Sunny intervals, isolated showers mostly in north, lows 2 to 5 C and highs 9 to 12 C.

TUESDAY ... Becoming milder with some rain at times, heavier in south coast counties. Lows near 6 C and highs near 13 C.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY will continue mild with some outbreaks of heavy rain in the west but by Thursday the rain may back off into the Atlantic as a southeast wind flow develops, highs will continue in the 11 to 13 C range. Nights will be mild especially in west and north (near 10 C).

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... This looks like a pattern subject to change at some point about a week down the road, so I am not really that willing to buy into current 10-15 day model output any more than to say there are no strong indications of colder weather yet, but ways that it could start to develop from either an easterly source or a northerly, however it would probably require about a week to extinguish the milder regime set to dominate next week.

My local weather featured our first snowfall and it turned out to be 7 cms of heavy, wet snow that has partly melted on contact although the ground is still covered, and temperatures have been in the 0.5 to 1.5 C range all day. We should see some clearing late tonight and mostly sunny but cold weather for about three days after this moves further east, where the snow will cover parts of the northern plains states into the western Great Lakes in the next two days.

M.T. Cranium · 11-11-2018 8:26am

Sunday, 11 November, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Some sunny intervals with showers developing from the west this morning, a few likely to become heavy with hail or thunder. Moderate south to southwest winds 50 to 80 km/hr. Highs 8 to 11 C.

TONIGHT ... Showers ending, rather blustery in westerly winds 40 to 70 km/hr. Lows 4 to 7 C.

MONDAY ... Partly cloudy, isolated showers, breezy, rather cool. Highs near 9 or 10 C.

TUESDAY ... Breezy and milder, rain developing with some heavier bursts in south (10-20 mm locally), lows near 5 C and highs near 12 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Outbreaks of rain, 10-20 mm likely, some fog at times, mild. Lows 8 to 10 C and highs 12 to 14 C.

THURSDAY to SATURDAY will bring mild southerly winds and some light rain at times on Thursday, mostly dry on Friday and possibly on Saturday with another interval of rain later in the weekend. Highs throughout will be 12 to 14 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... After one more bout of wind and rain, a somewhat colder pattern may develop with high pressure close to Ireland and temperatures closer to mid to late November normals, 6 to 8 C by day and slight frosts returning at night.

My local weather on Saturday was overcast with mist from the slowly melting snow that fell on Friday. Some brighter intervals were noted just off to our south and much of the province was sunny, the cloud was trapped in our valley by light winds and it remained quite cold with the high just 4 C. Despite that, most of the snow has disappeared as the ground was a bit warmer. A strong disturbance is forming over the south central U.S. and this will bring heavy rainfalls and some inland higher elevation snows as it moves up the east coast on Monday into Tuesday. It could be quite an unpleasant day on Tuesday for the large cities of the northeast as this cold rain moves through. Very cold air is flooding south behind that storm which is going to pull in the remnants of the weaker low over the Great Lakes region bringing light snow there.

M.T. Cranium · 12-11-2018 7:59am

Monday, 12 November, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Partly cloudy, a few passing showers, but amounts only 2 or 3 mm, moderate southwest to westerly winds 40 to 60 km/hr, with highs 8 to 11 C.

TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy with showers ending, lows 4 to 7 C.

TUESDAY ... Breezy and mild, rain arriving in the west by late afternoon and spreading across most regions overnight. Highs 11 to 13 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Intervals of rain, 10 to 15 mm on average, mild. Lows 8 to 11 C and highs 12 to 15 C.

THURSDAY ... Rain will back off to the west coast and eventually out to sea, leaving most regions dry and still quite mild in a moderate southerly wind 40 to 60 km/hr. Lows near 10 C and highs near 14 C.

FRIDAY ... Hazy, some low cloud but dry with lows near 8 C and highs near 13 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... The wind flow will gradually back to a southeast direction and temperatures will fall slightly as cooler air from central Europe begins to seep in, however, this will not turn into a cold spell of a wintry nature. Highs will remain near average for the time of year at about 8 to 10 C, nights will become colder with lows 2 to 5 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The cooler trend seems likely to continue with winds more easterly and this may begin to moisten the flow at lower levels from the North Sea and Irish Sea, so that by midweek it may be cloudy much of the time despite high pressure nearby to the north. Rather cold with highs 5 to 8 C and lows near or slightly below freezing. Some drizzle may be expected near east coast. This regime will most likely begin to break down as the high pressure either sinks south or withdraws to the west, either way the next stage may be a colder flow from a northerly direction before the end of November. It should be noted that this general outlook is now rather dry compared to earlier indications as the Atlantic frontal systems are blocked from approaching Ireland after this coming Wednesday.

My local weather on Sunday was partly cloudy with a rather chilly high of 5 C.

M.T. Cranium · 13-11-2018 8:22am

Tuesday, 13 November, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Breezy and mild, rain arriving in the west by late afternoon and spreading across most regions overnight. Highs 11 to 13 C.

TONIGHT and WEDNESDAY ... Intervals of rain, 10 to 15 mm on average, mild. Lows 8 to 11 C and highs 12 to 15 C. Some heavier bursts of rain likely during the morning hours, local amounts to 25 mm in parts of Munster and inland Connacht.

THURSDAY ... Rain will back off to the west coast and eventually out to sea, leaving most regions dry and still quite mild in a moderate southerly wind 40 to 60 km/hr. Lows near 10 C and highs near 14 C.

FRIDAY ... Hazy, some low cloud but dry with lows near 8 C and highs near 13 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... The wind flow will gradually back to a southeast direction and temperatures will fall slightly as cooler air from central Europe begins to seep in, however, this will not turn into a cold spell of a wintry nature. Highs will remain near average for the time of year at about 10 to 12 C Saturday and 7 to 9 C Sunday, nights will become colder with lows 2 to 5 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The cooler trend seems likely to continue with winds more easterly and this may begin to moisten the flow at lower levels from the North Sea and Irish Sea, so that by midweek it may be cloudy much of the time despite high pressure nearby to the north. Rather cold with highs 5 to 8 C and lows near or slightly below freezing. Some drizzle may be expected near east coast. This regime will most likely begin to break down as the high pressure most likely withdraws to the west, and there are some suggestions of a prolonged light rain or drizzle event just a little too mild for snow or sleet except possibly on hilltops, towards mid-week to Friday 23rd, and after that the high may rebuild for another interval of cold, dry weather. This is not quite "wintry" as most would interpret that word but it will be about as cold as it usually is in the winter months.

My local weather was pleasant enough for this time of year, weak sunshine at times, and a high near 6 C. Most of the recent snow has disappeared now at our elevation but the hills around us are still covered. Very cold air has moved into the central U.S. and is about to set off some early lake effect snow squalls in the lower Great Lakes region today. A cold rain is moving up the east coast with 20-40 mm amounts expected in many of the larger urban areas, sleet or wet snow over hills further inland. A weak tropical storm may form soon north of Puerto Rico and merge with the frontal system that is going to remain stalled in the central Atlantic next week.

M.T. Cranium · 14-11-2018 8:38am

Wednesday, 14 November, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, with intervals of light rain, a further 5 to 8 mm on average, and very mild with highs 12 to 15 C.

TONIGHT ... Rain becoming mostly confined to Atlantic coastal counties where 5 to 10 mm likely, otherwise, cloudy with some breaks, misty and quite mild, lows generally 10 to 12 C.

THURSDAY ... Rain will back off to the west coast and eventually out to sea, leaving most regions dry and still quite mild in a moderate southerly wind 40 to 60 km/hr. Lows near 10 C and highs near 14 C.

FRIDAY ... Hazy, some low cloud but dry with lows near 8 C and highs near 13 C.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy, spotty drizzle but generally no accumulation, and not quite as mild in a moderate southeast wind of 50 to 70 km/hr, lows 6 to 8 C and highs 10 or 11 C.

SUNDAY ... Breezy to windy, southeast 50 to 70 km/hr, mostly cloudy with some brief sunny breaks more frequent in west, and feeling rather cold in the wind with lows 3 to 5 C and highs about 7 to 9 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The cooler trend seems likely to continue with winds more easterly and this may begin to moisten the flow at lower levels from the North Sea and Irish Sea, so that after a cold, dry and partly sunny day on Monday, by midweek it may be cloudy much of the time despite high pressure nearby to the north. Rather cold with highs 5 to 8 C and lows near or slightly below freezing. Some drizzle may be expected near east coast. A disturbance moving west towards the south coast of Ireland later in the week could bring a more prolonged interval of cold rain with sleet on higher ground possibly, and temperatures around 5 C. This may break to a colder northerly flow although that solution is not too strongly indicated yet, so at some point there may be a chance for wintry precipitation before November ends. This will certainly be the case in higher parts of Britain and some parts of the near continent but the air mass approaching is not quite fully supportive of snow at low elevations further west into Ireland, in part due to lingering warmth in the nearby seas, and just the fact that upper level parameters are somewhat marginal even for mid-winter to get too excited about snow yet.

My local weather on Tuesday was partly cloudy with a high near 6 C. We are expecting another dusting of snow but changing over to rain before ending. The really cold air is staying east of the Rockies at this point and heading for the Great Lakes region where snow squall warnings are in the forecasts.

Regarding the winter forecast that I issued in preliminary form, I am fairly sure now that this is in the realm of possibility, will confirm that in a week or two, but I keep seeing other forecasts that come up with cold patterns and blocking from all sorts of different research perspectives, so it's becoming a trend.

M.T. Cranium · 15-11-2018 8:26am

Thursday, 15 November, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Rain will continue near the west coast with further amounts of 10 to 20 mm possible, and there may be one brief return of light rain a little further east around mid-day before the system pulls away to the north, but parts of the south and east will remain dry with some sunshine at times, staying very mild with highs 13 to 16 C. Moderate southerly winds 40 to 60 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Some clearing, moderate southerly winds easing and lows 4 to 7 C.

FRIDAY ... Hazy, some sunny intervals and some patchy low cloud more frequent near south coast, moderate to strong southeast winds developing, 50 to 80 km/hr, with highs near 13 C.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy, spotty drizzle but generally no accumulation, and not quite as mild in a moderate southeast wind of 50 to 70 km/hr, lows 7 to 10 C and highs 10 or 11 C.

SUNDAY ... Breezy to windy, southeast 50 to 70 km/hr, mostly cloudy with some brief sunny breaks more frequent in west, and feeling rather cold in the wind with lows 3 to 5 C and highs about 7 to 9 C.

MONDAY ... Partly cloudy, cold, moderate east to southeast winds 50 to 70 km/hr, lows 1 to 3 C and highs 5 to 8 C.

TUESDAY ... Increasing cloud, cold, some outbreaks of light rain or drizzle by late in the day near east coast, lows 1 to 3 C and highs 5 to 8 C, easterly winds 40 to 70 km/hr.

OUTLOOK ... Intervals of light rain or drizzle in cold, raw east to southeast winds, risk of some intervals of heavier rain turning to sleet on higher ground mid-week to Friday, highs generally only 4 to 7 C at best.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Guidance then diverges into two camps, one showing further east winds that may eventually turn more northeast bringing in even colder air before end of November, but another alternate suggestion that the original moderately cold air mass will remain in place while Atlantic moisture tries to push back against it, which may be a slightly milder solution but still quite raw and turning wet at times towards the end of the month. I won't try to handicap these two alternatives, just waiting to see if the colder solution remains an option by early next week then it could be more plausible.

My local weather on Wednesday was overcast with outbreaks of sleety light rain ending in the early afternoon, and the high was about 4 C.

M.T. Cranium · 16-11-2018 8:03am

Friday, 16 November, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

Slowly but surely, we seem to be heading into some winter weather ... but I don't think it will really become totally "winter" in the first stage next week, perhaps in the week after that.

Forecasts continue as before ...

TODAY ... A mixture of cloud and hazy sunshine, mainly dry although spots of drizzle from the low cloud that is likely to stream in from the south coast at times, with moderate to strong southeast winds developing, 50 to 80 km/hr, with highs still quite mild near 13 C.

TONIGHT ... Mostly cloudy, spotty drizzle at times, moderate southeast winds, lows 7 to 10 C.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy, spotty drizzle but generally no accumulation, and not quite as mild in a moderate southeast wind of 50 to 70 km/hr, lows 7 to 10 C and highs 10 or 11 C.

SUNDAY ... Breezy to windy, southeast 50 to 70 km/hr, mostly cloudy with some brief sunny breaks more frequent in west, and feeling rather cold in the wind with lows 3 to 5 C and highs about 7 to 9 C.

MONDAY ... Partly cloudy, cold, moderate east to southeast winds 50 to 70 km/hr, lows 1 to 3 C and highs 5 to 8 C.

TUESDAY ... Variable but generally increasing cloudiness, rather cold, some outbreaks of light rain or drizzle by late in the day near east coast, lows 1 to 3 C and highs 5 to 8 C, easterly winds 40 to 70 km/hr.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY ... There remains some uncertainty in timing and precise tracking but a rather weak disturbance is expected to drift west across Ireland in this time frame. The winds will turn southerly for a time after it passes, but it will be just the same cool air mass recycled from a different direction. Occasional light rain or drizzle will continue through this interval, but some northern areas could remain drier with perhaps the odd sunny break. Highs will be around 7 or 8 C and nights will be close to freezing with slight frosts any place that manages to clear for a few hours.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The weather pattern may remain quite stagnant for several more days as the weak disturbance dies out to the west of Ireland but more minor troughs or areas of cloud and low level moisture could be embedded in the easterly flow well into the weekend of 24th and 25th and beyond into the last week of November. There are persistent signs of a colder variety of arctic air pushing south to replace this cool but not quite wintry air mass, and that could bring wintry conditions including snow, near the end of the month -- however, confidence on this remains moderate rather than high, it could back off from the model runs in a few days but then reappear for later into December, as many signs are pointing to widespread blocking developing over the North Atlantic sector.

My local weather on Thursday was overcast with light rain and cool at 4 C. A rather vigorous storm system ran up the east coast of the U.S. bringing variable amounts of snow even in the larger cities but 20 cms reported in some inland areas outside of NYC in the Hudson valley, however the main weather story was freezing rain or sleet in the cities, poor road conditions and commuter chaos by the afternoon rush hour which was not a rush but a crawl at best. Next week leads up to the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday so this storm is already interfering with a lot of travel plans.

M.T. Cranium · 17-11-2018 8:08am

Saturday, 17 November, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Breezy and mild with extensive low cloud and spotty drizzle, but some brighter intervals further north and west, as this cloud is streaming in from the Celtic Sea and Irish Sea. Winds southeast 50 to 70 km/hr in exposed areas, and highs 12 to 14 C.

TONIGHT ... Cloud breaking to partly cloudy skies with clear intervals, somewhat colder with lows 5 to 8 C.

SUNDAY ... Breezy, rather cool compared to the past week, with highs 8 to 11 C. Winds southeast 50 to 70 km/hr. Cloud and possibly some patchy drizzle will be somewhat more prevalent near south and east coasts but all regions should see some brighter intervals.

MONDAY ... Breezy and colder with a mixture of cloud and sunshine, lows 2 to 5 C and highs 7 to 10 C. Winds east-southeast 50 to 70 km/hr.

TUESDAY ... Mostly cloudy, cold, occasional light rain or drizzle more frequent in Leinster and east Munster, south coast to Kerry. Amounts will be generally slight where this rain does make an appearance (3 to 7 mm), winds east 40 to 60 km/hr, and temperatures steady 5 to 8 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Rain becoming more extensive, not as windy in south at least, as low pressure tracks close to the south coast but some gusty east winds continuing further north, lows about 4 C and highs about 8 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY ... The disturbance will weaken and move away to the west, but some residual low cloud and light rain or drizzle will continue in a few places, and it will remain rather cold, highs around 8 C.

OUTLOOK ... There is more support now for the slower alternative where the Atlantic tries to mount a comeback recycling the low that crossed Ireland earlier in tandem with a more distant but deep Atlantic low, so that several more days may pass with further cloud and rain, southeast winds and temperatures recovering slightly to about 9 or 10 C. Much colder air will be massing near Norway waiting for this slow-moving disturbance to weaken, and then it could start pushing south towards Britain and Ireland some time around the end of the month.

My local weather on Friday was pleasant, with some sunny intervals and highs near 7 C. The east coast storm moved through far eastern provinces of Canada with the same sleety snow-rain mixture, and is now north of Newfoundland.

M.T. Cranium · 18-11-2018 8:18am

Sunday, 18 November, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Breezy, rather cool compared to the past week, with highs 8 to 11 C. Winds southeast 50 to 70 km/hr. Some sunny intervals this morning, then becoming partly to mostly cloudy with some patchy drizzle that will be somewhat more prevalent near south and (by mid-day) east coasts while further north and west, some sunny intervals persisting into the afternoon.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, rather cold, southeast breezes 40 to 60 km/hr in exposed coastal areas. Lows 2 to 5 C.

MONDAY ... Breezy and colder with a mixture of cloud and sunshine, lows 2 to 5 C and highs 7 to 10 C. Winds east-southeast 50 to 70 km/hr.

TUESDAY ... Mostly cloudy, cold, occasional light rain or drizzle more frequent in Leinster and east Munster, south coast to Kerry. Amounts will be generally slight where this rain does make an appearance (3 to 7 mm), winds east 40 to 60 km/hr, and temperatures steady 5 to 8 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Rain becoming more extensive, still expected to be rather light (5 to 10 mm amounts) and not as windy in the south at least, as low pressure tracks close to the south coast as gusty east winds continue further north, lows about 4 C and highs about 8 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY ... The disturbance will weaken and move away to the west, but some residual low cloud and light rain or drizzle will continue in a few places, and it will remain rather cold, lows 2 to 5 C and highs around 8 C.

OUTLOOK ... The disturbance will then circle around to the south of Ireland with little change in the weather for several more days, mostly cloudy, outbreaks of drizzle or light rain at times, and highs 8 to 10 C. The Atlantic may eventually win this round as the supply of colder air gets cut off by eventual weakening of the high to the north, and somewhat milder, wet weather will return -- however, models are struggling with the evolution beyond about the middle of next week and the outlook forecasts are going to be subject to changes from time to time.

Just a reminder, the winter forecast was calling for some more significant wintry weather, but that was to come later in December and into January -- so the first half of December is not the most likely time to see wintry conditions and it may remain rather bland for that period, expect more active weather patterns about a week before Christmas possibly.

My local weather on Saturday was overcast, quite cold but dry, with a slight frost followed by a high of perhaps 3 C. The snow is pretty much all gone now, but remains visible all around us on trees on nearby hills, the elevation here is 500 metres above sea level and the snow line looks to be about 600 metres.

M.T. Cranium · 19-11-2018 8:05am

Monday, 19 November, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Breezy and colder, sunny this morning with increasing cloud this afternoon, and highs 7 to 10 C. Winds east-southeast 50 to 70 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy, spotty drizzle or light rain at times near east coast, lows 2 to 5 C. Winds east 40 to 60 km/hr.

TUESDAY ... Mostly cloudy, cold, occasional light rain or drizzle more frequent in Leinster and east Munster, south coast to Kerry. Amounts will be generally slight where this rain does make an appearance (3 to 7 mm), winds east 40 to 60 km/hr, and temperatures steady 5 to 8 C. Some sunny breaks will continue in north Connacht and west Ulster.

WEDNESDAY ... Rain becoming more extensive, still expected to be rather light (5 to 10 mm amounts) and not as windy in the south at least, as low pressure tracks close to the south coast as gusty east winds continue further north, lows about 4 C and highs about 8 C.

THURSDAY ... Variable cloud, showers more isolated although some outbreaks of light rain near southwest coast, lows about 5 C and highs about 9 C. Southeast winds 40 to 60 km/hr.

FRIDAY ... Rain in the southwest, isolated showers elsewhere, southeast winds 50 to 70 km/hr.

OUTLOOK ... Next weekend will be overcast with a few outbreaks of light rain, more frequent in the south, and highs near 10 C, lows 3 to 6.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Cold air seems to be held back by a slowly returning Atlantic flow that will likely bring frequent rain and occasional moderate south to southwest winds in the week of 28 November to 4 December.

My local weather on Sunday was partly to mostly cloudy and a bit milder, highs near 7 C.

M.T. Cranium · 20-11-2018 10:33am

Tuesday, 20 November, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

Apologies for delay in posting, boards having some issues just as I tried the first time around 0730h.

TODAY ... Cloudy, cold, occasional light rain or drizzle more frequent in Leinster and east Munster, south coast to Kerry. Amounts will be generally slight (3 to 7 mm), winds east 40 to 60 km/hr, and temperatures steady 5 to 8 C. Some sunny breaks will continue in north Connacht and west Ulster.

TONIGHT ... Outbreaks of sleety light rain with wet snow possible on higher slopes above 300 metres elevation, cold, lows 2 to 4 C. Winds east to southeast 40 to 60 km/hr.

WEDNESDAY ... Rain becoming more extensive, still expected to be rather light (5 to 10 mm amounts) and not as windy by afternoon in the south at least, as low pressure tracks close to the south coast, but gusty east winds will continue further north, with lows about 3 C and highs 5 to 8 C.

THURSDAY ... Variable cloud, showers more isolated although some outbreaks of light rain near southwest coast, lows about 5 C and highs about 9 C. Southeast winds 40 to 60 km/hr.

FRIDAY ... Rain in the southwest, isolated showers elsewhere, southeast winds 50 to 70 km/hr. Lows 2 to 5 C and highs about 9 C.

OUTLOOK ... Next weekend will be overcast with a few outbreaks of light rain in the south, and highs near 10 C, lows 3 to 6 C. For the north, partly cloudy, rather cold, highs near 7 C and lows -2 to +2 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The week of 26 Nov to 2 Dec will bring rather frequent rain and a few intervals of strong winds with temperatures in the 5 to 8 C range much of the time. Colder air will be poised a little further north and it wouldn't take a lot to adjust this outlook to something a bit colder, milder air is only making a weak push back from the Atlantic.

My local weather on Monday was partly cloudy with a high of about 6 C.

M.T. Cranium · 21-11-2018 8:17am

Wednesday, 21 November, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Outbreaks of rain (sleety on higher ground) will continue more frequently in central and northern counties, and some local downpours may be heavy with some hail mixing in, but most places will see about 5-10 mm. Where it rains, there will likely be moderate southeast winds, but further south there could be some sunny breaks this morning with somewhat lighter winds around mid-day. Highs 7 to 9 C although about 5 degrees on higher slopes.

TONIGHT ... A few more showers, partial clearing, cold. Lows 1 to 4 C. Some icy sections could develop on higher roads well inland.

THURSDAY ... Some outbreaks of rain in southwest and isolated showers elsewhere with a mixture of cloud and sunshine, continued cool with moderate east winds resuming, highs 7 to 9 C.

FRIDAY ... Occasional rain in south and west, variable cloud with isolated showers in north and east, cool, moderate east winds. Lows 1 to 4 C and highs 7 to 9 C.

SATURDAY ... Mostly cloudy, light rain or drizzle edging further north into central counties, then dying out with a few sunny breaks by afternoon, lows zero to 3 C and highs 6 to 8 C.

SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy, then some overcast and wet conditions moving into south coast later, highs near 9 C.

MONDAY to WEDNESDAY is looking rather wet as areas of low pressure swirl around the southwest coastal regions, 20 to 40 mm rainfalls can be expected in parts of the south and west, tapering to 10 to 20 mm north and east in this period, and highs will continue to hover around the 7 or 8 C mark.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The frontal battleground will continue but there are somewhat faint indications that it might drift a bit south adding the risk of sleet to the mixture of precipitation towards the end of the month, however, coastal and southern areas can probably expect only rain from passing frontal disturbances. There will be moderate south to southwest winds at times near the south coast at least, these may not make a lot of further progress north as a slight easterly flow could continue north of frontal boundaries. Highs throughout will be 6 to 9 C.

My local weather on Tuesday was overcast and rather cold with highs near 4 C. It was a low overcast that probably ended around mountain peak levels as it looked a bit brighter near the cloud base at times. Meanwhile, exceptionally cold air (below -30 C in northern Manitoba now) is streaming south into the Great Lakes region where some heavy snow squalls are developing overnight, and temperatures will fall during the day to -5 C then all the way to record cold overnight lows for Thursday morning, close to -20 C is expected around Ottawa and Montreal. This is about a month ahead of the usual timetable for temperatures that cold to appear. Hudson Bay has been freezing over very rapidly this past week and even James Bay (which is generally south of the latitude of Ireland) is beginning to freeze over. Once again, this is a month or two ahead of most recent years.

M.T. Cranium · 22-11-2018 8:22am

Thursday, 22 November, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Showers moving west this morning followed by some partial clearing, then further outbreaks of light rain near southwest coasts spreading some distance inland, moderate southeast winds at times, highs 8 to 10 C.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, rather cold away from a cloudier south and southwest coastal region, lows -2 to +3 C. Cloud and some rain at times in southwest, lows 3 to 6 C.

FRIDAY ... Outbreaks of rain in south and southwest will move gradually north into central counties, 10 to 15 mm in some places. Partly to mostly cloudy further north. Moderate southeast winds and highs 8 to 10 C.

SATURDAY ... Rain tapering to drizzle in the morning, some partial clearing will follow, cooler, lows 1 to 3 C and highs 7 to 9 C.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, rather cold, lows -2 to +2 C and highs 6 to 9 C.

MONDAY ... Clear intervals, cold at first, then increasing cloud, stronger east to southeast winds returning. Lows -3 to +2 C and highs about 8 or 9 C.

TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY ... Rather wet and windy much of the time, with an interval of heavier rain and strong south to southwest winds by Wednesday, possible gusts to 110 km/hr then. Highs 8 to 11 C in this interval, possibly a bit higher in south and west on Wednesday 28th.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... More unsettled weather will follow but it won't be quite as mild for several days, bringing some risk of sleet or wet snow on hills by end of the week (and month). However, early December could then turn somewhat milder again reaching 9 or 10 C at times.

Any really cold wintry conditions are probably going to be pushed into mid to late December as the Atlantic resumes its control of the weather for the first half of December, at least that's how it appears now, although the colder air is not being pushed too far back to the north, so this is by no means "carved in stone" -- I would say as a teaser, watch the period around 19 to 23 December for some volatile weather events.

My local weather on Wednesday was mostly cloudy and a bit milder than recently with a high near 8 C. Light rain was falling this evening. In the eastern regions of Canada and the U.S., bone chilling cold and locally heavy lake effect snow squalls have hit with temperatures tumbling down to near record low values in some places (for this date at least). It is already close to -20 C around Ottawa and Montreal. By the time this arctic air gets to the larger cities of the U.S. northeast, where today will be Thanksgiving Day, it will warm to about -4 C but with bitter wind chills for parade watchers. The south is not particularly warm at about 15-20 C and out west it's quite warm with highs today likely to reach 20 to 25 C in places.

M.T. Cranium · 23-11-2018 8:00am

Friday, 23 November, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Rain becoming moderate to heavy at times in the south, 10 to 20 mm amounts possible. Variable cloud with isolated showers further north. Winds southeast 30 to 50 km/hr but increasing at times near south coast to 50 to 70 km/hr. Highs 8 to 10 C.

TONIGHT ... Rain tapering to drizzle, fog may follow especially on higher ground in south. Lows 2 to 5 C south, -2 to +2 C central and inland north, about 3 C near coasts around northern counties.

SATURDAY ... Isolated showers, some sunny breaks developing, rather cold, moderate east winds. Highs 7 to 9 C.

SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy, some morning frost and fog, risk of icy patches on some rural secondary roads, lows -3 to +2 C and highs 6 to 9 C.

MONDAY ... Increasing cloud, some rain around south and southwest coastal counties later in the day, becoming rather windy, lows -2 to +3 C and highs 7 to 10 C.

TUESDAY into WEDNESDAY ... Rain becoming rather heavy and with an increasing threat of strong winds that may push in from the southwest by Wednesday, milder with temperatures slowly rising to 10 to 13 C range. About 30 to 50 mm of rain is possible with this slow-moving complex disturbance. Gusts to 110 km/hr or higher are possible by later Wednesday when a secondary low may form in the trough and tighten the wind gradient considerably for a time. Guidance is rather scattered on details this far out though.

OUTLOOK ... The pattern following this stormy period will remain rather unsettled with temperatures falling back to more normal 7 to 10 C readings, and occasional bouts of rain and moderate winds. Another mild spell may follow about a week into December but this may be the beginning of a more volatile period as colder air begins to engage from the north.

My local weather on Thursday was overcast with light rain at times and a high near 5 C. It was record breaking cold in parts of eastern Canada and New England on Thursday, but conditions are moderating in advance of a rather complex storm system that will approach the region late this weekend into Monday and Tuesday of next week, bringing 10-20 cm snowfalls to places around Chicago, Detroit and Toronto.

California is seeing some heavy rainfalls after months of dry weather, mudslides are expected especially in recent fire-ravaged areas due to instability of slopes. The El Nino pattern usually means above normal rainfalls in California, the desert southwest, and the Gulf states, while rather dry further north. However, this year's El Nino is fighting it out with very cold air already in place over central and eastern Canada which may create a second area of heavy precipitation, mostly snowfall, in the eastern U.S. and parts of eastern Canada.

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