Should we stop bullying the United Kingdom?

Berserker wrote: »

And nothing is being done to prepare for that scenario. I called a no-deal Brexit and a hard border on day one. It was the the only realistic end game, once the British people voted to leave. The Irish government have had years to prepare for this but they've done nothing about the impact that it is going to have on the daily life of people here. I was talking to a lady who works in the agribusiness sector at the weekend and she is very concerned about what is going to happen when the hard Brexit kicks in. She finds it hard to see how her company will be able to avoid redundancies, given the reduction in trade and the increase in costs for their business.

You "called it" on day one and were ignored. That's terrible behaviour by the powers that be.

Berserker wrote: »

Never looked upon as inferior, that's all in your head and given the "state of the nation" in 2018 and what has gone in the independent Ireland, I would question your ability to rule. I can point to any number of things such as your child abuse scandals, current housing crisis or repeated economic collapses which have resulted in Irish citizens flocking to that very same empire for a living in their droves, interestingly enough.

Aye. All those scandals. Almost as bad as Amritsar, Suez, Sykes-Picot, Balfour's simultaneous promises to Jews and Arabs, the Zinoviev letter, women and children deceived into travelling in wartime in a ship carrying munitions (Lusitania), forcible transportation of kids to Australia 1920s-1950s (did you mention child abuse?), Derrymandering, Kincora, Churchill's forced famine in India, Dresden, Chuka, Batang Kali, Yarrow (did you mention economic collapse?), the councillor who told Seamus Mallon "no Papist pig will get a house in this town while I'm alive" (did you mention housing?), Aberfan, Profumo, Churchill perpetually pissed amid denigration of the "drunken Irish", the Kray twins and their influential friends, Jeremy Thorpe and Norman Scott, Lord Denning's "appalling vista" coming to fruition, the Guildford Four getting the benefit of "the fairest system of justice in the world", Bloody Sunday and the whitewash, multiple Tory sleazebags in the 1980s and 1990s, the BBC (did you mention child sex abuse?), the Elgin marbles, Cambridge Analytica, RCs barred from the headship of state.

Keep it up, Berserker. King and country, right or wrong,

Folkstonian wrote: »

Not sure it’s over just yet.

The deal has, IMO, a 5% chance of getting through parliament.

If I was to put a 5 euro on it, I’d say no deal is the most likely outcome right now. Hard border in Ireland, carnage in Dover, and all the other associated fun...

NO , No-one in the UK , except for a very small J-ReesMoog groupies wants a cliff face Brexit , thats clear from the pasting May got in this current draft agreement

Hence I think a lot of people will reflect on the fact that killing this deal will most likely cause the UK to request a delay in article 50

Again , this morning there was strong comment that certain members of the cabinet would resign , this didnt come to pass, I suspect the vote in the HoC will do the same

Folkstonian wrote: »

I’d be interested to see your calculations on the commons vote. Not sure I (or anyone) shares your confidence right now

Every indication is that absolutely nobody is happy with the deal, and May won’t have anywhere near enough support from the opposition benched to compensate for the loss of dozens of her own MPs.

Quite rightly MPs have stated they won’t be cowed into voting for a terrible deal brought about by a hapless PM because there’s nothing else on the table.

It’s no real decision to vote for either the rock or the hard place.

Unfortunately, whilst I think it’s possible it may lead to a second referendum, I think a no deal isn’t still more likely.

Firstly , failure to pass the deal , would force the UK to seek to extend Article 50 , May and the Tories know that a cliff face exit in march must be avoided at all costs , which is why they all tried very hard to come up with a deal .

Neither scenario brings a second referendum closer

I think a no deal isn’t still more likely.

err, double negative , so you think its unlikely to be de a no deal , so do I

Absolutely nobody (in the UK) is happy with the deal, but that's often the way with compromises. The compromise doesn't give anyone what they hoped for, but they go for it because at least it saves them from what they feared.

May will be hoping to God that enough MPs will think this way to get it over the line.

Assuming that a majority of MPs dislike the compromise (albeit for different reasons) they will certainly consider voting against it. What might dissuade them is the fear of what could happen if it is defeated.

If you dislike it because you're a remainer/a soft brexiteer, your fear would be that rejecting the deal leads to a crash-out.

If you dislike it because you're a hard brexiteer, you might have two fears:

1. Rejecting it could lead to a general election and/or a second referendum, leading ultimate to remaining.

2. Rejecting it could lead to a crash-out which, posturing notwithstanding, you know would be disastrous for most people, leading to (a) political ruin for yourself, and (b) the distinct prospect of a growing rejoin movement.

Not all hard brexiteers would be much swayed by the second consideration; there are some who fail to recognise the horrors of a crash-out, and genuinely think it would be acceptable to most people.

But, still, the perils of crash-out brexit is a fear which holds considerable traction with remainers/soft brexiters, and at least some traction with hard brexiters, so May will push this line very hard, arguing (a) the UK is not going to get a better deal out of the EU (which is true) and (b) remain is not an option. So the choice is brexitting on these terms, or a crash-out brexit.

The key to this is Labour. Notwithstanding that there will be some Labour rebels, the Labour whips control a huge voting block. They're plainly not going to support May's deal; the choice for them is between whipping against it, or whipping to abstain. If they whip to abstain, the deal will get through Parliament, regardless of what the DUP, the ERG and People's-Voters do; if they whip against it, I would think not.

So Labour will ask themselves, what happens if we defeat May's deal? What they'd like to happen is a general election, which I think (without huge confidence, but on balance) they would probably win. But, particularly with the Fixed Term Parliament Act, a general election is by no means inevitable in this circumstance. What could happen is a second referendum, which Corbyn definitely does not want. Or, of course, a crash-out, which Labour might regard as tolerable since it's the Tories who would primarily be blamed for it, and Labour would almost certainly win any general election coming after a crash-out.

On the whole, I think Corbyn will reckon that there's more upside than downside for Corbyn if May's deal is defeated in Parliament. So I'm guessing that Labour will seek to defeat it, and the prospect of their doing so must be pretty good.

Folkstonian wrote: »

A majority of journalists and commentators in Britain are, as of tonight indicating that they think May’s deal hasn’t a prayer in Parliament.

That would be my view too
It is in fact possible that the rebels on her own front bench alone are enough to screw her over. That's before you even count all the former front benchers who have already walked, those rebels who have never been on her front bench and the DUP

The SNP are pissed off that they might have to contend with EU trade tariffs and still have to compete for FDI with a N. Ireland who has free access to both the EU and the UK (could also hurt the RoI)

Both The Lib Dems and Plaid Cymru want a second referendum and won't back her in a fit

The one Green Party MP won't support May in a fit either!

Out of the 8 independents, she will probably get support from Frank Field and Kelvin Hopkins and she MIGHT get support from Charlie Elphicke, John Woodcock and Andrew Griffiths, she'll probably get no support from Ivan Lewis and there's not a hope in hell of getting support from Sylvia Hermon or Jared O'Mara.

So barring a decent wedge of support or abstentions from Labour - be it with permission from the party whip or be it from party rebels, I don't see that it's possible. It's the only way!

The SNP are pissed off that they might have to contend with EU trade tariffs and still have to compete for FDI with a N. Ireland who has free access to both the EU and the UK (could also hurt the RoI)

This would only occur if the backstop were to be activated , at present the UK has indicated it believes the trading deal would/could prevent the backstop from being activated , mind you given the time such deals take , it could be 10 years before we find out !, in the meantime I believe the transition period will be extended until such deal is completed , as the alternative is a no deal trade agreement after transition and under the transition arrangement GB is effectively inside the SM and CU as its NI ( and Scotland )

in reality it might be more likely that we'd see new EU referendum in the UK, before the transition period ends

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

I feel sorry for Teresa May. I’d like her to stand up in parliament, hold a middle figure up in each hand and scan around all the MPs going “**** you, **** you and FURRRRK YOU. I’m outta here”. Then slip her stilettos back on and walk outta there leaving them all to it.

To the tune of Dancing Queen, leaving them all rolling their eyes until the music suddenly shifts to "F*** that, I won't do what you told me"