COVID-19: Vaccine/antidote and testing procedures Megathread [Mod Warning - Post #1]

Dickie10 · 24-10-2020 12:20am

what do we do when we get acceess to vaccine? i presume we will still have level 3 restrictions. will the government keep these levels forever now, like use level 3 for winter flu season every year or two?

iguana · 24-10-2020 12:27am

Dickie10 wrote: »

what do we do when we get acceess to vaccine? i presume we will still have level 3 restrictions. will the government keep these levels forever now, like use level 3 for winter flu season every year or two?

To what end? All of this is terrible for the overall economy. Once it's safe for this to end, it ends. Eventually it will just be a bit of a weird memory.

ILoveYourVibes · 24-10-2020 5:17am

I found this it makes some very good points. A Vaccine isn't going to end the pandemic. Not for some years.

He said those hoping for a breakthrough to end the pandemic would be disappointed, with some vaccines likely to reduce the risk of Covid-19 infection by only 30%.

"None of the trials currently under way are designed to detect a reduction in any serious outcome such as hospital admissions, use of intensive care, or deaths," he said.

"Nor are the vaccines being studied to determine whether they can interrupt transmission of the virus."

A linked editorial in the BMJ medical journal comments on the release of the Covid-19 vaccine trial protocols.

30% isn't going to end the need for lockdowns.

https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/1022/1173108-covid-19-vaccine-effectiveness/

I think people need to lower their expectations.

Dressoutlet · 24-10-2020 5:31am

ILoveYourVibes wrote: »

I found this it makes some very good points. A Vaccine isn't going to end the pandemic. Not for some years.

30% isn't going to end the need for lockdowns.

https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/1022/1173108-covid-19-vaccine-effectiveness/

I think people need to lower their expectations.

This was previously discussed.
This is an opinion piece. Given by someone who has not seen any data because the trials are still ongoing. It's literally as much use as an ashtray on a motorbike

ILoveYourVibes · 24-10-2020 6:14am

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Fantastic news about J&J today. The participant had a stroke which was not linked to the vaccine itself.

Well ...sobering news for the man and family. Reassuring news for the rest of us....everyone counts!

I hope he is ok!

JacksonHeightsOwn · 24-10-2020 6:37am

ILoveYourVibes wrote: »

I found this it makes some very good points. A Vaccine isn't going to end the pandemic. Not for some years.

30% isn't going to end the need for lockdowns.

https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/1022/1173108-covid-19-vaccine-effectiveness/

I think people need to lower their expectations.

Where has this 30% thing come from?

Obviously we'd all love for it to give 100% immunity, but my main reason for thinking the efficiency must be decent is the amount of money the companies have spent on it.

Surely to god there's no way in hell that Pfizer would had spent over 2 billion, on the logistical aspects of their product, if it only offered immunity to a mere 30% of the users.

James Bond Junior · 24-10-2020 6:57am

ILoveYourVibes wrote: »

I found this it makes some very good points. A Vaccine isn't going to end the pandemic. Not for some years.

30% isn't going to end the need for lockdowns.

https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/1022/1173108-covid-19-vaccine-effectiveness/

I think people need to lower their expectations.

An opinion piece which suits RTE's harbinger of doom drumbeat.

stephenjmcd · 24-10-2020 7:11am

Managing director of Pfizer Ireland just so happens to be named Paul Reid.

Meanwhile HSE Paul Reid, has said a "population distribution" plan is being developed to decide how a potential vaccine will be released here

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/first-batch-of-covid-19-vaccine-may-be-ready-to-go-within-weeks-39662400.html

manniot2 · 24-10-2020 7:40am

serious clickbait from the indo today as usual

Bit cynical · 24-10-2020 7:45am

JDD wrote: »

I agree.

I think the permanent changes that might come from this pandemic is that more people will work from home, and you might be more likely to step away from a coughing or sneezing person in the shops or on a bus. That's it.

We had the Spanish Flu a hundred years ago. They had masks then. I don't see that that particular outbreak (which was way more deadly than this one) stopped people from hugging or shaking hands or gathering in large numbers.

The only permanent change from the plague is our fear of rats. And that was a 200 year long outbreak.

Everyone said people would stop flying after 9/11. And then Ryanair started. People forget quickly.

People want to go back to normal, and therefore they will.

What I think will continue - not forever but longer than people imagine - is government restrictions. You mention 9/11. People, of course, resumed flying shortly afterward but the extra security checks remained and restrictions remained. After some IRA bombs in London in the early 90s, bins were removed or blocked throughout central London for years after.

Bishopsgate gets bins back 20 years after IRA explosion

If a vaccine does not eliminate the virus as people might have thought then we will have restrictions of various sorts to continue for a period longer than most would expect at this point in time.

jackboy · 24-10-2020 8:21am

chrisbonnie wrote: »

Where has this 30% thing come from?

Obviously we'd all love for it to give 100% immunity, but my main reason for thinking the efficiency must be decent is the amount of money the companies have spent on it.

Surely to god there's no way in hell that Pfizer would had spent over 2 billion, on the logistical aspects of their product, if it only offered immunity to a mere 30% of the users.

Not sure if you are being humorous. Of course they would release it. There are several drugs on the market which are known to be almost completely ineffective and some do more damage than good. However, they were released when standards were lower.

A pharma company would release anything that makes a profit if the profits outweigh any potential risks to the company.

dominatinMC · 24-10-2020 9:35am

Dickie10 wrote: »

what do we do when we get acceess to vaccine? i presume we will still have level 3 restrictions. will the government keep these levels forever now, like use level 3 for winter flu season every year or two?

Forever?! Are you serious! You do realise the detrimental effect that would have on both society and the economy. Obviously these "levels" are a short term solution. Even if we never get a vaccine (unlikely at this stage), I don't see the restrictions lasting "forever". The fact that a vaccine is most likely on the way, coupled with effective treatments, will only accelerate the reopening of the economy. I accept that there will be some level of restrictions (some social distancing, mask wearing) whilst the vaccine is being distributed, etc. but to think that such measures will be with us forever is unrealistic to say the least. Stay away from RTE would be my advice!

mean gene · 24-10-2020 9:43am

ILoveYourVibes wrote: »

I found this it makes some very good points. A Vaccine isn't going to end the pandemic. Not for some years.

30% isn't going to end the need for lockdowns.

https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/1022/1173108-covid-19-vaccine-effectiveness/

I think people need to lower their expectations.

on one guys opinion :rolleyes:

Le Bruise · 24-10-2020 9:47am

dominatinMC wrote: »

Forever?! Are you serious! You do realise the detrimental effect that would have on both society and the economy. Obviously these "levels" are a short term solution. Even if we never get a vaccine (unlikely at this stage), I don't see the restrictions lasting "forever". The fact that a vaccine is most likely on the way, coupled with effective treatments, will only accelerate the reopening of the economy. I accept that there will be some level of restrictions (some social distancing, mask wearing) whilst the vaccine is being distributed, etc. but to think that such measures will be with us forever is unrealistic to say the least. Stay away from RTE would be my advice!

‘some men just want to watch the world burn’ - Alfred, 2008

Have to assume most folk abdicating for restrictions forever more are trolling at this stage, they surely can’t think it in all seriousness. The societal and economic damages of long term social distancing and restrictions (beyond say Q2/Q3 next year) would be astronomical!

dominatinMC · 24-10-2020 9:49am

Le Bruise wrote: »

‘some men just want to watch the world burn’ - Alfred, 2008

Have to assume most folk abdicating for restrictions forever more are trolling at this stage, they surely can’t think it in all seriousness. The societal and economic damages of long term social distancing and restrictions (beyond say Q2/Q3 next year) would be astronomical!

Very true, that's the only rationale explanation for the outlook of a few posters on here. Yet I still feel compelled to bite!

stephenjmcd · 24-10-2020 9:57am

manniot2 wrote: »

serious clickbait from the indo today as usual

How ?

It lays out to someone who hasn't been following vaccine updates what exactly is going on.

Its far from the exclusive story they present it as but at least imminent arrival of a vaccine is being recognised

hmmm · 24-10-2020 11:54am

This 30% thing is the latest fake news from the anti-vaxxers. I don't know where they've come up with that figure, it's obviously not true.

Here's an optimistic interview in the past 24 hours with Francis Collins, the director of the NIH and one of the most respected health institutions in the world.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vj7OjdpQduY

ACitizenErased · 24-10-2020 12:01pm

Really promising news from the Pfizer Ireland CEO. Looks as if he has seen some data tbh.

MerlinSouthDub · 24-10-2020 12:09pm

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Really promising news from the Pfizer Ireland CEO. Looks as if he has seen some data tbh.

I share your optimism. I don't think he would have seen any data though, my understanding would be that Pfizer wouldn't see efficacy data until a threshold number of infections has been reached.

lbj666 · 24-10-2020 12:41pm

hmmm wrote: »

This 30% thing is the latest fake news from the anti-vaxxers. I don't know where they've come up with that figure, it's obviously not true.

Here's an optimistic interview in the past 24 hours with Francis Collins, the director of the NIH and one of the most respected health institutions in the world.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vj7OjdpQduY

It's not fake news it's just RTE not knowing what they are publishing, but picking by default the most pessimistic view they can find.

The article refers to 30% reduction in infections , no mention of reduction in the severity of the illness in those infected.

FintanMcluskey · 24-10-2020 12:45pm

Dickie10 wrote: »

what do we do when we get acceess to vaccine? i presume we will still have level 3 restrictions. will the government keep these levels forever now, like use level 3 for winter flu season every year or two?

Bit cynical wrote: »

If a vaccine does not eliminate the virus as people might have thought then we will have restrictions of various sorts to continue for a period longer than most would expect at this point in time.

Applying the metrics that were used in Ireland from June until September (when cases were as low as 14 per day)some restrictions will continue, until hospital capacity is sufficient.

With a vaccine, an acceptable realistic number of Covid deaths needs to be considered to remove all restrictions.

Right now that number seems to be 0

XsApollo · 24-10-2020 12:50pm

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

I share your optimism. I don't think he would have seen any data though, my understanding would be that Pfizer wouldn't see efficacy data until a threshold number of infections has been reached.

They could have already reached the number ,
The only thing that is guaranteed time wise is the safety aspect which is X number of months and is due to be completed the end of November.
They might have seen all other aspects and are just waiting.
Hopefully.

manniot2 · 24-10-2020 12:51pm

stephenjmcd wrote: »

How ?

It lays out to someone who hasn't been following vaccine updates what exactly is going on.

Its far from the exclusive story they present it as but at least imminent arrival of a vaccine is being recognised

i meant the headline ' vaccine available within weeks'

Gael23 · 24-10-2020 1:24pm

What’s this news from Pfizer?

lbj666 · 24-10-2020 1:25pm

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Applying the metrics that were used in Ireland from June until September (when cases were as low as 14 per day)some restrictions will continue, until hospital capacity is sufficient.

With a vaccine, an acceptable realistic number of Covid deaths needs to be considered to remove all restrictions.

Right now that number seems to be 0

Of course its can't just be left loose on the non vulnerable population either. It won't have full efficacy on those at risk who receive the vaccine first and there will be those who will not be in good enough health to take the vaccine. There's only been a few 100k infectons in Ireland so far, to remove all restrictions means leaving the entire population exposed to the virus within months, even if the mortatily rate or hospitalisation rate per infected plumets to far low level of what it was, those rates x leaving nearly all the population exposed is still a significant load on the health service. You will still have some form or flattening the curve.

Say if an early rollout to the at risk reduced the severity and load on health service by half, that means acceptable incident levels can double but due the perpetual exponential nature of the spread that doesnt nessescarily mean restrictions that results in an r0=2(level 1-2) at the moment are good enough. The natural unsupressed reproductive rate of the virus was r0=6.

MerlinSouthDub · 24-10-2020 1:28pm

XsApollo wrote: »

They could have already reached the number ,
The only thing that is guaranteed time wise is the safety aspect which is X number of months and is due to be completed the end of November.
They might have seen all other aspects and are just waiting.
Hopefully.

I think if they had efficacy data, they would have published that as soon as they could? Maybe not though. Anyway, the next few weeks will be very interesting on the vaccine front, really optimistic.

FintanMcluskey · 24-10-2020 1:33pm

lbj666 wrote: »

Of course its can't just be left loose on the non vulnerable population either. It won't have full efficacy on those at risk who receive the vaccine first and there will be those who will not be in good enough health to take the vaccine. There's only been a few 100k infectons in Ireland so far, to remove all restrictions means leaving the entire population exposed to the virus within months, even if the mortatily rate or hospitalisation rate per infected plumets to far low level of what it was, those rates x leaving nearly all the population exposed is still a significant load on the health service. You will still have some form or flattening the curve.

So the answer to the question about restrictions continuing in some form?

Yes, for a substantial amount of time in Ireland.

Russman · 24-10-2020 1:39pm

I’m sure this has been discussed earlier in the thread, but is the expectation with the first few vaccines that they’ll reduce symptoms but not prevent infection ? Or are they expecting some level of immunity from infection, be it weeks, months or years ?

I’m just trying to get it clear in my head how transmission of the disease will be slowed/stopped.

Sconsey · 24-10-2020 2:03pm

Russman wrote: »

I’m sure this has been discussed earlier in the thread, but is the expectation with the first few vaccines that they’ll reduce symptoms but not prevent infection ? Or are they expecting some level of immunity from infection, be it weeks, months or years ?

I’m just trying to get it clear in my head how transmission of the disease will be slowed/stopped.

No, the current crop of vaccines will not protect from infection of the virus (Cov-2), but the hope is they will prevent illness (Covid). So vaccinated people will still get infected but hopefully will not get any symptoms, and thus not get sick.
This alone is good because for us it means that less infected people will get sick so less strain on the health service.

In terms of immunity from the virus/reduction of spread, I don't think these vaccines will prevent spread from a vaccinated infected person. But, there is a chance that the vaccines could reduce how infectious a person is. The theory being that a vaccinated immune system will kill a lot of the virus in people bodies before it replicated to the point where they are shedding virus. This part is only speculation at the moment I believe but fingers crossed.

Stheno · 24-10-2020 2:09pm

Sconsey wrote: »

No, the current crop of vaccines will not protect from infection of the virus (Cov-2), but the hope is they will prevent illness (Covid). So vaccinated people will still get infected but hopefully will not get any symptoms, and thus not get sick.
This alone is good because for us it means that less infected people will get sick so less strain on the health service.

In terms of immunity from the virus/reduction of spread, I don't think these vaccines will prevent spread from a vaccinated infected person. But, there is a chance that the vaccines could reduce how infectious a person is. The theory being that a vaccinated immune system will kill a lot of the virus in people bodies before it replicated to the point where they are shedding virus. This part is only speculation at the moment I believe but fingers crossed.

Thanks for the explanation

Russman · 24-10-2020 2:11pm

Sconsey wrote: »

No, the current crop of vaccines will not protect from infection of the virus (Cov-2), but the hope is they will prevent illness (Covid). So vaccinated people will still get infected but hopefully will not get any symptoms, and thus not get sick.
This alone is good because for us it means that less infected people will get sick so less strain on the health service.

In terms of immunity from the virus/reduction of spread, I don't think these vaccines will prevent spread from a vaccinated infected person. But, there is a chance that the vaccines could reduce how infectious a person is. The theory being that a vaccinated immune system will kill a lot of the virus in people bodies before it replicated to the point where they are shedding virus. This part is only speculation at the moment I believe but fingers crossed.

Thanks for that

lbj666 · 24-10-2020 2:34pm

Sconsey wrote: »

No, the current crop of vaccines will not protect from infection of the virus (Cov-2), but the hope is they will prevent illness (Covid). So vaccinated people will still get infected but hopefully will not get any symptoms, and thus not get sick.
This alone is good because for us it means that less infected people will get sick so less strain on the health service.

In terms of immunity from the virus/reduction of spread, I don't think these vaccines will prevent spread from a vaccinated infected person. But, there is a chance that the vaccines could reduce how infectious a person is. The theory being that a vaccinated immune system will kill a lot of the virus in people bodies before it replicated to the point where they are shedding virus. This part is only speculation at the moment I believe but fingers crossed.

Is it prevent the disease or reduce the severity or do they both go hand in hand?

Stheno · 24-10-2020 2:36pm

lbj666 wrote: »

Is it prevent the disease or reduce the severity or do they both go hand in hand?

I read it as reduce the severity

Bit cynical · 24-10-2020 4:56pm

I think some of the people saying that restrictions are going to end with the vaccine will also be on here justifying continued restrictions after the vaccination programme.

"No one said that vaccines would be a panacea..."

"We don't know how long immunity from the vaccine will last so we need to be cautious..."

"The vaccine is a useful adjunct but no substitute for social distancing..."

"Mathematical models predict X thousand deaths if we rely on the vaccine alone..."

And so on. I gave the example of bins returning to Bishopsgate Tube station twenty years after a bomb went off there. Another example would be the emergency powers the Irish government gave themselves during WWII which lasted until the 1970s.

Voltex · 24-10-2020 5:27pm

Stheno wrote: »

I read it as reduce the severity

The reduction in severity was implied from the results of the Oxford/AZ Phase II trials. I think we'll need to wait for the read-out of phase III/IV to know for sure.

Macaques were exposed to ultra-high levels of SARS-CoV2 and even directly into their lungs. The vaccine protected all from pneumonia, but replicating viral RNA was detected.

Neutralising ABs were detected in 91% of samples on single dose and 100% on booster dose.

Side effects were mild and all ameliorated by paracetamol...exactly as kids are when given MMR.

WoollyRedHat · 24-10-2020 6:12pm

manniot2 wrote: »

i meant the headline ' vaccine available within weeks'

The Irish Examiner went with the same headline as did others.

Hmmzis · 24-10-2020 7:04pm

Voltex wrote: »

The reduction in severity was implied from the results of the Oxford/AZ Phase II trials. I think we'll need to wait for the read-out of phase III/IV to know for sure.

Macaques were exposed to ultra-high levels of SARS-CoV2 and even directly into their lungs. The vaccine protected all from pneumonia, but replicating viral RNA was detected.

Neutralising ABs were detected in 91% of samples on single dose and 100% on booster dose.

Side effects were mild and all ameliorated by paracetamol...exactly as kids are when given MMR.

Just to add, this is from one data set of one of the vaccine candidates. Some of the others show a slightly different picture. J&J had one monkey with low virus titers in the nose, all else clear. Novavax had no virus replication or detection in any of the monkeys anywhere (nose, lungs, throat, organs etc.). Moderna and Pfizer/BioNTech showed reduced virus titers in the nose for shorter durations than mocks.

How that translates to humans and real world situations we'll only know after phase 3 readouts.

Dickie10 · 24-10-2020 7:54pm

dominatinMC wrote: »

Very true, that's the only rationale explanation for the outlook of a few posters on here. Yet I still feel compelled to bite!

Im not a restrictions lover, totally the opposite but just cant see this government growing balls and cutting NYPHET adrift i dont think RTE would do that either or let it be done, ill be honest right now from what i see i can really see us being under level 2/3 this time next year. cant see any matches, concerts, arts venues open in 2021 to a crowd over 50. Would the economy be able for another summer of no matchs, concerts, pubs, theatres etc? How do people think the government will begin to cut NYPHET and RTE off once the vaccine starts being distributed? i presume the vacine prob wont be started til near paddys day?

polesheep · 24-10-2020 7:59pm

Dickie10 wrote: »

Im not a restrictions lover, totally the opposite but just cant see this government growing balls and cutting NYPHET adrift i dont think RTE would do that either or let it be done, ill be honest right now from what i see i can really see us being under level 2/3 this time next year. cant see any matches, concerts, arts venues open in 2021 to a crowd over 50. Would the economy be able for another summer of no matchs, concerts, pubs, theatres etc? How do people think the government will begin to cut NYPHET and RTE off once the vaccine starts being distributed? i presume the vacine prob wont be started til near paddys day?

This morning on the pitches in the Phoenix Park there were so many people training they might as well have been playing matches. It was wonderful to see all those young people out playing sport in the fresh air. It was also indicative of the fact that restrictions are gradually been consigned to the bin by a growing number of the public. 2021 will be very quickly back to normal, most likely aided by a vaccine of some sorts.

Gael23 · 24-10-2020 8:10pm

I do think we will be the slowest country in Europe to ease restrictions

ShineOn7 · 24-10-2020 8:19pm

When will a Covid-19 vaccine be ready in the UK? | ITV News

3 minute watch

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VDNzmY7Ek6E

Gael23 · 24-10-2020 8:34pm

A good dose of reality without any doom in that clip.
July 2021 for a return to relative normality seems like a good bet to me

ShineOn7 · 24-10-2020 8:40pm

Gael23 wrote: »

A good dose of reality without any doom in that clip.
July 2021 for a return to relative normality seems like a good bet to me

Albeit a very optimistic one where there's absolutely no hitches or hiccups

I would happily even take Q4 next year as a return to relative normality

Gael23 · 24-10-2020 8:48pm

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Albeit a very optimistic one where there's absolutely no hitches or hiccups

I would happily even take Q4 next year as a return to relative normality

Can we expect an easing of restrictions along the way to that return to normal, Or is it living like this until thent

stephenjmcd · 24-10-2020 8:52pm

Gael23 wrote: »

Can we expect an easing of restrictions along the way to that return to normal, Or is it living like this until thent

I'd expect a very gradual easing bit by bit until a full release.

Remember its all about protecting the health system. If that's not under significant pressure you can keep easing

ShineOn7 · 24-10-2020 8:52pm

Gael23 wrote: »

Can we expect an easing of restrictions along the way to that return to normal, Or is it living like this until thent

In the EU, and especially Ireland, I think it'll be unfortunately:

Cases drop - restrictions drop

Cases rise - restrictions rise

And around and around until it either starts to burn out a lot more, or the vaccine/a breakthrough treatment arrives

Whichever gets here first

Miike · 24-10-2020 8:55pm

Gael23 wrote: »

Can we expect an easing of restrictions along the way to that return to normal, Or is it living like this until thent

Personally I think restrictions will wax and wane as cases and capacity go up and down. Obviously, there are a few influencing factors in that statement also such as treatments and learning more about the virus. I sincerely hope that we would be in a position to better treat the people significant comorbidities to decrease the rate at which this subsection of the population is dying or suffering serious sequelae as time goes on. As vaccines come on board their effectiveness is ultimately what's going to decide what level and frequency of restrictions we see outside of some kind of sterilising immunity.

FintanMcluskey · 24-10-2020 9:17pm

Gael23 wrote: »

Can we expect an easing of restrictions along the way to that return to normal, Or is it living like this until thent

I would imagine some easing by May/ June similar to earlier this year.

Vaccine distribution will effect that of course

Ireland likely to be last in Europe though, health service reform needed.

Hego Damask · 24-10-2020 9:30pm

ShineOn7 wrote: »

In the EU, and especially Ireland, I think it'll be unfortunately:

Cases drop - restrictions drop

Cases rise - restrictions rise

And around and around until it either starts to burn out a lot more, or the vaccine/a breakthrough treatment arrives

Whichever gets here first

They need to change that metric of using cases, when a lot of vulnerable people are vaccinated and cases continue to rise - but health service won't be as stretched as more and more vulnerable people vaccinated - makes no sense to restrict.

They need to use ICU % as an indicator of when to introduce restrictions.

Away With The Fairies · 24-10-2020 9:36pm

Are there any results out yet from any phase 3 trials? Oxford vaccine must be due soon?

COVID-19: Vaccine/antidote and testing procedures Megathread [Mod Warning - Post #1]

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