COVID-19: Vaccine/antidote and testing procedures Megathread [Mod Warning - Post #1]

Russman · 24-10-2020 02:11PM

Sconsey wrote: »

No, the current crop of vaccines will not protect from infection of the virus (Cov-2), but the hope is they will prevent illness (Covid). So vaccinated people will still get infected but hopefully will not get any symptoms, and thus not get sick.
This alone is good because for us it means that less infected people will get sick so less strain on the health service.

In terms of immunity from the virus/reduction of spread, I don't think these vaccines will prevent spread from a vaccinated infected person. But, there is a chance that the vaccines could reduce how infectious a person is. The theory being that a vaccinated immune system will kill a lot of the virus in people bodies before it replicated to the point where they are shedding virus. This part is only speculation at the moment I believe but fingers crossed.

Thanks for that

lbj666 · 24-10-2020 02:34PM

Sconsey wrote: »

No, the current crop of vaccines will not protect from infection of the virus (Cov-2), but the hope is they will prevent illness (Covid). So vaccinated people will still get infected but hopefully will not get any symptoms, and thus not get sick.
This alone is good because for us it means that less infected people will get sick so less strain on the health service.

In terms of immunity from the virus/reduction of spread, I don't think these vaccines will prevent spread from a vaccinated infected person. But, there is a chance that the vaccines could reduce how infectious a person is. The theory being that a vaccinated immune system will kill a lot of the virus in people bodies before it replicated to the point where they are shedding virus. This part is only speculation at the moment I believe but fingers crossed.

Is it prevent the disease or reduce the severity or do they both go hand in hand?

Stheno · 24-10-2020 02:36PM

lbj666 wrote: »

Is it prevent the disease or reduce the severity or do they both go hand in hand?

I read it as reduce the severity

Bit cynical · 24-10-2020 04:56PM

I think some of the people saying that restrictions are going to end with the vaccine will also be on here justifying continued restrictions after the vaccination programme.

"No one said that vaccines would be a panacea..."

"We don't know how long immunity from the vaccine will last so we need to be cautious..."

"The vaccine is a useful adjunct but no substitute for social distancing..."

"Mathematical models predict X thousand deaths if we rely on the vaccine alone..."

And so on. I gave the example of bins returning to Bishopsgate Tube station twenty years after a bomb went off there. Another example would be the emergency powers the Irish government gave themselves during WWII which lasted until the 1970s.

Voltex · 24-10-2020 05:27PM

Stheno wrote: »

I read it as reduce the severity

The reduction in severity was implied from the results of the Oxford/AZ Phase II trials. I think we'll need to wait for the read-out of phase III/IV to know for sure.

Macaques were exposed to ultra-high levels of SARS-CoV2 and even directly into their lungs. The vaccine protected all from pneumonia, but replicating viral RNA was detected.

Neutralising ABs were detected in 91% of samples on single dose and 100% on booster dose.

Side effects were mild and all ameliorated by paracetamol...exactly as kids are when given MMR.

WoollyRedHat · 24-10-2020 06:12PM

manniot2 wrote: »

i meant the headline ' vaccine available within weeks'

The Irish Examiner went with the same headline as did others.

Hmmzis · 24-10-2020 07:04PM

Voltex wrote: »

The reduction in severity was implied from the results of the Oxford/AZ Phase II trials. I think we'll need to wait for the read-out of phase III/IV to know for sure.

Macaques were exposed to ultra-high levels of SARS-CoV2 and even directly into their lungs. The vaccine protected all from pneumonia, but replicating viral RNA was detected.

Neutralising ABs were detected in 91% of samples on single dose and 100% on booster dose.

Side effects were mild and all ameliorated by paracetamol...exactly as kids are when given MMR.

Just to add, this is from one data set of one of the vaccine candidates. Some of the others show a slightly different picture. J&J had one monkey with low virus titers in the nose, all else clear. Novavax had no virus replication or detection in any of the monkeys anywhere (nose, lungs, throat, organs etc.). Moderna and Pfizer/BioNTech showed reduced virus titers in the nose for shorter durations than mocks.

How that translates to humans and real world situations we'll only know after phase 3 readouts.

Dickie10 · 24-10-2020 07:54PM

dominatinMC wrote: »

Very true, that's the only rationale explanation for the outlook of a few posters on here. Yet I still feel compelled to bite!

Im not a restrictions lover, totally the opposite but just cant see this government growing balls and cutting NYPHET adrift i dont think RTE would do that either or let it be done, ill be honest right now from what i see i can really see us being under level 2/3 this time next year. cant see any matches, concerts, arts venues open in 2021 to a crowd over 50. Would the economy be able for another summer of no matchs, concerts, pubs, theatres etc? How do people think the government will begin to cut NYPHET and RTE off once the vaccine starts being distributed? i presume the vacine prob wont be started til near paddys day?

polesheep · 24-10-2020 07:59PM

Dickie10 wrote: »

Im not a restrictions lover, totally the opposite but just cant see this government growing balls and cutting NYPHET adrift i dont think RTE would do that either or let it be done, ill be honest right now from what i see i can really see us being under level 2/3 this time next year. cant see any matches, concerts, arts venues open in 2021 to a crowd over 50. Would the economy be able for another summer of no matchs, concerts, pubs, theatres etc? How do people think the government will begin to cut NYPHET and RTE off once the vaccine starts being distributed? i presume the vacine prob wont be started til near paddys day?

This morning on the pitches in the Phoenix Park there were so many people training they might as well have been playing matches. It was wonderful to see all those young people out playing sport in the fresh air. It was also indicative of the fact that restrictions are gradually been consigned to the bin by a growing number of the public. 2021 will be very quickly back to normal, most likely aided by a vaccine of some sorts.

Gael23 · 24-10-2020 08:10PM

I do think we will be the slowest country in Europe to ease restrictions

ShineOn7 · 24-10-2020 08:19PM

When will a Covid-19 vaccine be ready in the UK? | ITV News

3 minute watch

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VDNzmY7Ek6E

Gael23 · 24-10-2020 08:34PM

A good dose of reality without any doom in that clip.
July 2021 for a return to relative normality seems like a good bet to me

ShineOn7 · 24-10-2020 08:40PM

Gael23 wrote: »

A good dose of reality without any doom in that clip.
July 2021 for a return to relative normality seems like a good bet to me

Albeit a very optimistic one where there's absolutely no hitches or hiccups

I would happily even take Q4 next year as a return to relative normality

Gael23 · 24-10-2020 08:48PM

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Albeit a very optimistic one where there's absolutely no hitches or hiccups

I would happily even take Q4 next year as a return to relative normality

Can we expect an easing of restrictions along the way to that return to normal, Or is it living like this until thent

stephenjmcd · 24-10-2020 08:52PM

Gael23 wrote: »

Can we expect an easing of restrictions along the way to that return to normal, Or is it living like this until thent

I'd expect a very gradual easing bit by bit until a full release.

Remember its all about protecting the health system. If that's not under significant pressure you can keep easing

ShineOn7 · 24-10-2020 08:52PM

Gael23 wrote: »

Can we expect an easing of restrictions along the way to that return to normal, Or is it living like this until thent

In the EU, and especially Ireland, I think it'll be unfortunately:

Cases drop - restrictions drop

Cases rise - restrictions rise

And around and around until it either starts to burn out a lot more, or the vaccine/a breakthrough treatment arrives

Whichever gets here first

Miike · 24-10-2020 08:55PM

Gael23 wrote: »

Can we expect an easing of restrictions along the way to that return to normal, Or is it living like this until thent

Personally I think restrictions will wax and wane as cases and capacity go up and down. Obviously, there are a few influencing factors in that statement also such as treatments and learning more about the virus. I sincerely hope that we would be in a position to better treat the people significant comorbidities to decrease the rate at which this subsection of the population is dying or suffering serious sequelae as time goes on. As vaccines come on board their effectiveness is ultimately what's going to decide what level and frequency of restrictions we see outside of some kind of sterilising immunity.

FintanMcluskey · 24-10-2020 09:17PM

Gael23 wrote: »

Can we expect an easing of restrictions along the way to that return to normal, Or is it living like this until thent

I would imagine some easing by May/ June similar to earlier this year.

Vaccine distribution will effect that of course

Ireland likely to be last in Europe though, health service reform needed.

Hego Damask · 24-10-2020 09:30PM

ShineOn7 wrote: »

In the EU, and especially Ireland, I think it'll be unfortunately:

Cases drop - restrictions drop

Cases rise - restrictions rise

And around and around until it either starts to burn out a lot more, or the vaccine/a breakthrough treatment arrives

Whichever gets here first

They need to change that metric of using cases, when a lot of vulnerable people are vaccinated and cases continue to rise - but health service won't be as stretched as more and more vulnerable people vaccinated - makes no sense to restrict.

They need to use ICU % as an indicator of when to introduce restrictions.

Away With The Fairies · 24-10-2020 09:36PM

Are there any results out yet from any phase 3 trials? Oxford vaccine must be due soon?

Sky King · 24-10-2020 09:37PM

The last thing I read was results late October with approval late November. At the earliest

Voltex · 24-10-2020 09:48PM

Some of the more optimistic experts suggest spring 21 for things to improve with vaccine....some of the more conservative experts say late Q2 to Q3 for a wide distribution of any vaccine. This will all be bad news for the Doom Squad.

All I know is that Sars-CoV2 is going to be with us for a very long time. We'll always be hearing about cases and it may take quite a while for the mental disassociation of this virus with our innate fear of contagion, which is what humanity is actually more fearful of.

When I read the headline in the Indo this morning suggesting first EUA vaccines before end of year, it struck me just how incredible this is!

Within 11 months of identifying a novel pathogen, humanity sequenced its genome, then developed, tested, manufactured and administered a new vaccine against it.

Humanity absolutely rocks!

Hmmzis · 24-10-2020 09:58PM

Some pre-clinical data from the other German crowd CureVac:

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.23.351775v1.full.pdf+html

The vaccine seems to do very well in mice, titers and T cells at high levels from relatively small doses.

The syrian hamsters though. The assays don't look that different, both are 100 TCID50 with a starting dilution of 1:10 and both use a WT virus. Not sure what's the story there but the hamsters had a much lower response than the mice even though they got 2.5x the dose.
Still, the clinical scores look better than mocks and the viral loads are significantly down as well.
The other good points from their paper are that they got to try the challenge with sub-optimally protected animals (all good there, no VAERD or ADE). There is also a comparison with a Th2 inducing vaccine for comparison (some VAERD observed) and also some convalescent hamsters involved in the challenge for comparison.

They are now in phase 2 human trials, so they must have figured out the dosing after all.

Edit: and the doses are 4/6/8ug... go figure!
https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04515147

afatbollix · 24-10-2020 10:07PM

Could we see that once vaccines are out that we could be given a Bio passport?

In the film Contagion they gave out a wrist band with each Vaccine but surely we could use our smartphones for them?

Maybe even the Government covid apps?

Get results from a PCR test scan the bar code and you're assumed ok at that time.
Get an anti-body test scan the bar code and your ok for a set time.

Have a Vaccine ok for travel and life back to normal.

FintanMcluskey · 24-10-2020 10:14PM

afatbollix wrote: »

Could we see that once vaccines are out that we could be given a Bio passport?

In the film Contagion they gave out a wrist band with each Vaccine but surely we could use our smartphones for them?

Maybe even the Government covid apps?

Get results from a PCR test scan the bar code and you're assumed ok at that time.
Get an anti-body test scan the bar code and your ok for a set time.

Have a Vaccine ok for travel and life back to normal.

Would a small tag on top of the ear not be more visible, or a micro chip?

Not everyone will have a smartphone at all times

Gael23 · 24-10-2020 10:25PM

There will have to be something introduced as proof of vaccination

Voltex · 24-10-2020 10:31PM

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Would a small tag on top of the ear not be more visible, or a micro chip?

Not everyone will have a smartphone at all times

A tag could fall off....but a tattoo across the forehead...

giveitholly · 24-10-2020 10:46PM

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Would a small tag on top of the ear not be more visible, or a micro chip?

Not everyone will have a smartphone at all times

Yeah a Bill Gates chip for everyone............!

Irish Stones · 24-10-2020 11:34PM

Bit cynical wrote: »

If a vaccine does not eliminate the virus as people might have thought then we will have restrictions of various sorts to continue for a period longer than most would expect at this point in time.

This is what I meant in my previous posts, I'm glad someone else is saying the same thing in a clearer way.

Dickie10 · 24-10-2020 11:35PM

maybe a star stiched onto government issue jacket,.................. yellow perhaps

COVID-19: Vaccine/antidote and testing procedures Megathread [Mod Warning - Post #1]

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