Potential Extreme Wind Storm - Thursday 8th December

ninebeanrows · 06-12-2011 7:41pm #1

Well originally i anticipated the low would slam into Scotland and the northern Isles but over recent model runs the deep low pressure system has been placed further south with northern counties of Ulster at risk of extreme winds.

The exact track and depth of the low will be difficult to pin point until tomorrow evening. However i feel it necessary to start this thread to put a warning out there.

The system is picked up by the ECM as a vicious system with exceptional winds at its left exit perilously close to the north coast.

Please stay tuned, it will turn windy this evening and overnight across much of the country but this event is expected to hit Thursday and it will be tracked with great concern by Met.IE / Metoffice and your boardsies.

There is also the risk of blizzards if the system does reach the mainland.

Wind gust estimates at this stage are uncertain but this could be extremely severe and we are considering the possibility of gusts in excess of 150km/hr.

Of course it may not come to pass or move further north.

While the GFS throws an extreme gradient a little further north

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 06-12-2011 7:50pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

Well originally i anticipated the low would slam into Scotland and the northern Isles but over recent model runs the deep low pressure system has been placed further south with northern counties of Ulster at risk of extreme winds.

The exact track and depth of the low will be difficult to pin point until tomorrow evening. However i feel it necessary to start this thread to put a warning out there.

The system is picked up by the ECM as a vicious system with exceptional winds at its left exit perilously close to the north coast.

Please stay tuned, it will turn windy this evening and overnight across much of the country but this event is expected to hit Thursday and it will be tracked with great concern by Met.IE / Metoffice and your boardsies.

There is also the risk of blizzards if the system does reach the mainland.

Wind gust estimates at this stage are uncertain but this could be extremely severe and we are considering the possibility of gusts in excess of 150km/hr.

Of course it may not come to pass or move further north.

Oohhhh exciting weather !!! :pac:

Ahorseofaman · 06-12-2011 7:52pm

Is this the same system that Met E are saying will bring potential large amounts snow on saturday night?

Su Campu · 06-12-2011 7:59pm

Ahorseofaman wrote: »

Is this the same system that Met E are saying will bring potential large amounts snow on saturday night?

No. That's a different system.

Ahorseofaman · 06-12-2011 8:02pm

Interesting few days ahead then.

Caitriona · 06-12-2011 8:21pm

Blizzards? Actualy blizzards? Oh no, I'm going to have to get a new F5 key...

maquiladora · 06-12-2011 8:22pm

It looks potentially bad for Scotland and Northern England alright. A lot less for Ireland if the 12Z GFS track verified.

Even though the 12Z track shifted south, these lows usually end up tracking further north than the models forecast. Still though, its an interesting one.

pistolpetes11 · 06-12-2011 8:28pm

Loving the weather at the moment , even without the snow in my back yard the weather of late has been interesting to say the least

maquiladora · 06-12-2011 8:42pm

13th/14th also needs to be watched for a potential severe wind event. The ECM and several of the GFS ensembles show this, some with extreme low pressure.

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 06-12-2011 8:50pm

:rolleyes: Has the bottom of the chart been cut in the budget ??

How low pressure are we talking ?

ScouseMouse · 06-12-2011 8:55pm

Oh crap.

Dont mean to go off topic folks but I am gonna have to watch this like a hawk. On a ferry ferry - the big ones, on Friday morning and back Sunday night, with drive from Holyhead to Liverpool.

Anyone take a guess what all this will mean. Will there be any disruption or is to early to guess ???

Thanks

ninebeanrows · 06-12-2011 9:15pm

superscouse wrote: »

Oh crap.

Dont mean to go off topic folks but I am gonna have to watch this like a hawk. On a ferry ferry - the big ones, on Friday morning and back Sunday night, with drive from Holyhead to Liverpool.

Anyone take a guess what all this will mean. Will there be any disruption or is to early to guess ???

Thanks

The worst winds to hit the Irish sea are likely to hit Thursday evening, and i would expect Thursday afternoons crossing to perhaps be delayed as winds in the Irish sea are expected to be sustained 50-60mph gusting 70-80mph.

bryaner · 06-12-2011 9:19pm

superscouse wrote: »

Oh crap.

Dont mean to go off topic folks but I am gonna have to watch this like a hawk. On a ferry ferry - the big ones, on Friday morning and back Sunday night, with drive from Holyhead to Liverpool.

Anyone take a guess what all this will mean. Will there be any disruption or is to early to guess ???

Thanks

Wear a pair of wellies for getting trough the puke..

howlinwolf · 06-12-2011 9:25pm

a lot of lows flyin in towards us in the last few days , met eir are sayin tonights winds could be the strongest but are mentioning it will be very windy later in the week , there prob seeing the severe low on thursday drifting further north by then but either way ulster could get a serious pounding this week.... kinda glad im down here in the balmy southeast;)

smallwonder · 06-12-2011 9:45pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

The system is picked up by the ECM as a vicious system with exceptional winds at its left exit perilously close to the north coast.

I may have to cancel tea on the veranda

pauldry · 06-12-2011 10:09pm

Some woman was on the telephone saying there was going to be a hurricane...:rolleyes:

megatron989 · 06-12-2011 10:24pm

Every wind event is called a hurricane by some mad owl one and then spreads like fire. We should be so lucky!

JJJJNR · 06-12-2011 10:32pm

superscouse wrote: »

Oh crap.

Dont mean to go off topic folks but I am gonna have to watch this like a hawk. On a ferry ferry - the big ones, on Friday morning and back Sunday night, with drive from Holyhead to Liverpool.

Anyone take a guess what all this will mean. Will there be any disruption or is to early to guess ???

Thanks

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RQRIOKvR2WM

pauldry · 06-12-2011 10:46pm

megatron989 wrote: »

Every wind event is called a hurricane by some mad owl one and then spreads like fire. We should be so lucky!

i was trying to think of the Micky Fish quote

maquiladora · 06-12-2011 10:50pm

Storm is tracking further north on the 18Z so far though it looks a bit more intense.

Su Campu · 06-12-2011 10:55pm

It almost looks a replica of Carmen in November 2010.

konman · 06-12-2011 10:57pm

maquiladora wrote: »

Storm is tracking further north on the 18Z so far though it looks a bit more intense.

Hi maq just wondering what your thoughts are on the storm thats on the models for monday and tuesday next. sorry i know its off thread topic.

ninebeanrows · 06-12-2011 10:57pm

Not that far north from us, deepens slightly earlier in this run.

Bombs 30mb in just 12 hours

naughto · 06-12-2011 11:07pm

Su Campu wrote: »

It almost looks a replica of Carmen in November 2010.

balls looks like my fence is in for a doing again

howlinwolf · 06-12-2011 11:08pm

gotta say i dont think this will pan out as severe as some are sayin [ no expert view just a follower] but this kinda setup has been predicted so many times in the past and 95% dont turn out as bad as predicted but i can understand the concern because its still possible. still reckon people in ulster should keep up to date with this system

Su Campu · 06-12-2011 11:08pm

That's some hurricane-force gradient over western Scotland and NI! :eek:

naughto · 06-12-2011 11:11pm

your some man for the maps Su Campu keep it up

maquiladora · 06-12-2011 11:13pm

Even though its a little further north on the 18Z, because its more intense the max gusts for Northern Ireland are actually higher than on the 12Z. 70-75mph gusts just off the north coast.

Scotland takes a hammering.

maquiladora · 06-12-2011 11:16pm

howlinwolf wrote: »

gotta say i dont think this will pan out as severe as some are sayin [ no expert view just a follower] but this kinda setup has been predicted so many times in the past and 95% dont turn out as bad as predicted but i can understand the concern because its still possible. still reckon people in ulster should keep up to date with this system

It's less than 48 hours out and there is good agreement between the main models on this event so a major downgrade at this stage is very unlikely. The track and exact intensity still has to be nailed though and that will determind who gets the windy conditons and who gets the stormy conditions.

Harps · 06-12-2011 11:17pm

Amazing how quick these things can show up, this time last night there was nothing but a typical windy day across all the main models yet suddenly the biggest storm of the year pops up only two days away!

I know the exact track and intensity will change with every run but its looking like a potentially dangerous storm for around here

Iancar29 · 06-12-2011 11:17pm

Su Campu wrote: »

That's some hurricane-force gradient over western Scotland and NI! :eek:

You could SURF those isobars there that steep!!! ...

:pac:

naughto · 06-12-2011 11:25pm

does mt have any mention of this storm??

howlinwolf · 06-12-2011 11:26pm

maquiladora wrote: »

It's less than 48 hours out and there is good agreement between the main models on this event so a major downgrade at this stage is very unlikely. The track and exact intensity still has to be nailed though and that will determind who gets the windy conditons and who gets the stormy conditions.

as i said im no expert an your the guys i look to for serious stuff but it seems ive read alot of threads with similar set ups with the low t o our north and its ended up shifting further north as it closes in on us ........is there anything different with this perticular set up that makes it different,met eireann are not giving any weather warnings for this and its only 48hrs out?

maquiladora · 06-12-2011 11:28pm

NAE has 75mph sustained winds for parts of Western Scotland for a time.

Su Campu · 06-12-2011 11:30pm

This is as similar storm to the one that hit the Faroes a week or two ago, bringing 74 knot sustained winds. The good thing is these winds will be in an area with a lot more observing stations, so we should learn a good bit more from this one.

eskimocat · 06-12-2011 11:34pm

Lads i don't know about later this week but tonight is sure getting gusty! The lights flickered here too. Don't go by the weather station readings, its located in a nice cosy garden tucked away...:rolleyes:

Oh lots on the weather forum lately... love this time of year

maquiladora · 06-12-2011 11:37pm

Look whats comin on the 18Z, I mentioned this earlier about the 12Z ensembles....

john mayo 10 · 06-12-2011 11:38pm

naughto wrote: »

does mt have any mention of this storm??

MT mentioned this storm last thursday in his daily weather report but it seemed to disappear and now its BACK !!!!

whitemocha · 06-12-2011 11:39pm

maquiladora wrote: »

Look whats comin on the 18Z, I mentioned this earlier about the 12Z ensembles....

whats coming ???:)

whiteandlight · 06-12-2011 11:40pm

maquiladora wrote: »

Look whats comin on the 18Z, I mentioned this earlier about the 12Z ensembles....

What's coming??

Ahorseofaman · 06-12-2011 11:41pm

maquiladora wrote: »

Look whats comin on the 18Z, I mentioned this earlier about the 12Z ensembles....

What's coming?

eastmayo · 06-12-2011 11:43pm

maquiladora wrote: »

Look whats comin on the 18Z, I mentioned this earlier about the 12Z ensembles....

i 3rd that,whats comeing:rolleyes:

maquiladora · 06-12-2011 11:43pm

Santa! Who else?

18Z GFS is showing another storm with stronger winds for Ireland next Monday/Tuesday.

Deep Easterly · 06-12-2011 11:45pm

Latest from EMHI HIRLAM 18z run.

Just to give the actual legend more detail and just to note, these are forecast mean wind speeds, not gust speeds which will be much higher!

10m/s = 36km/h | 19kts | 22mph | BF 5
13m/s = 47km/h | 25kts | 29mph | BF 6
20m/s = 72km/h | 39kts | 45mph| BF 8 (Gale)
23m/s = 86km/h | 47kts | 53.7mph | BF 9 (Severe Gale)
30 m/s= 108km/h| 58kts | 67.1mph | BF 11 (Violent Storm ) :eek:

Extent of strongest winds seem a little more south than earlier runs with the chance for gale to strong gales in many coastal areas of the country with potential for mean wind speeds to reach storm force 10 along the north coast (doubtlessly with damaging higher gusts). As for the Hebrides, looks pretty darn serious with sustained violent storm force winds. Very very rare to see that being indicated on these maps.

Ahorseofaman · 06-12-2011 11:45pm

link?

eastmayo · 06-12-2011 11:47pm

maquiladora wrote: »

Santa! Who else?

18Z GFS is showing another storm with stronger winds for Ireland next Monday/Tuesday.

wow now thats a storm

je55ie · 06-12-2011 11:49pm

OUTLOOK ... Make a will (if you believe the 00z GFS run) ... seriously, the model consensus remains unsettled and rather cool, but one model shows an epic windstorm on Thursday 8th into Friday 9th. I am hoping this is a typical model teaser because even 75% of this storm would be nasty. With the full moon in that time frame, energy levels are high and a storm surge would accompany such a storm on the west coast. We'll continue to track this potential which has to be rated slight at this time frame.

...... MT last week

maquiladora · 06-12-2011 11:51pm

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Very very rare to see that being indicated on these maps.

Yeah, we usually see that kinda stuff from the GFS at 5(+) days or so, but there is good model agreement for this to be quite severe for Scotland at least.

Should be a really interesting one to follow. I just hope nobody exposed to the highest winds gets hurt or worse.

Deep Easterly · 06-12-2011 11:58pm

maquiladora wrote: »

Yeah, we usually see that kinda stuff from the GFS at 5(+) days or so, but there is good model agreement for this to be quite severe for Scotland at least.

Should be a really interesting one to follow. I just hope nobody exposed to the highest winds gets hurt or worse.

We used to slag OwenC about his boasts about his local climate extremes, but when you look objectively at it, he was not all that wrong! :cool: But yep, let's hope this will be a fun, rather than a tragic event and that people will take due warning whether or not this storm potential plays or not as currently indicated.

Pangea · 07-12-2011 12:04am

Really interesting weather this month you have to admit, plenty of gales about.

Deep Easterly · 07-12-2011 12:08am

Pangea wrote: »

Really interesting weather this month you have to admit

For Donegal, maybe..

Potential Extreme Wind Storm - Thursday 8th December

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