Possible Storm / Strong winds 26th to 28th October 2013 ?

Tazio · 21-10-2013 5:41pm #1

Mods please move / delete if appropriate etc.. (very infrequent poster here)

Have been looking at the GFS runs for the end of the month over the last 2 weeks and there sees to be a common theme... (In my very very amateur mind)... It looks like a wind event at the end of the month..

It's only a week off now, so whats the possibly of a storm? I've read MT's forecasts for the last few days and he's hinted at such an event.. but from the runs above it (to me) looks like it become a big one..

maquiladora · 21-10-2013 5:49pm

Yeah I've been keeping an eye on it and posting about the possibility in the Autumn thread. Still a bit far away yet, a lot can change in a week.

12Z GFS brings it down to 946mb.

Tazio · 21-10-2013 5:54pm

maquiladora wrote: »

Yeah I've been keeping an eye on it and posting about the possibility in the Autumn thread. Still a bit far away yet, a lot can change in a week.

12Z GFS brings it down to 946mb.

Ah, just read the Autumn thread there... sorry for the duplication of information!

maquiladora · 21-10-2013 6:01pm

12Z GEM has dropped it from yesterday, UKMO and NAVGEM don't really have anything either.

Worth keeping an eye on but far from a sure thing.

ninebeanrows · 21-10-2013 6:04pm

Yes been keeping an eye out, be interesting to see the ECMWF Ensemble stamps again later and for the next few days. It's a good while away yet and will probably do its usual last minute move to Iceland!

M.T. Cranium · 21-10-2013 6:06pm

There was support for this on the 00z ECM as well, now the 12z GFS continues the theme and so we're seven days out in a pattern that the models have been handling fairly well. The signal is consistent with pattern change upstream as strong positive anomalies fade to strong negative around 80-100 W (in other words cold air begins to flow out over the western Atlantic). The GEM model is not picking up this energy yet and shows a much more moderate solution within roughly the same upper level large-scale features (on day 7). The storm now depicted on the GFS would certainly give 60-70 knot gusts so this would be the first big autumn storm if it verifies.

dopolahpec · 21-10-2013 6:07pm

The models have been very steady with the idea of a storm around the 28th October for some days now as Maq has been pointing out, and MT also. The trend is most certainly there and if anything the solutions are becoming more vicious as we start to move closer. Though 7 days is a long way off in model terms. If this is still showing at the same scale come Thursday I will sit up and take note. There's some talk I've seen elsewhere of a potentially very stormy November this year because of a song sea temperature gradient in the north atlantic or some such. ..don't quote me on it.

M.T. Cranium · 21-10-2013 6:34pm

North Atlantic generally 2-3 C above normal across 45-55N, bookmark this for future reference:

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2013/anomnight.10.21.2013.gif

(bookmark the first part of that address anyway, you'll get a menu with updates twice a week on all regions and global.

maquiladora · 21-10-2013 6:48pm

12Z GFS operational run was more intense than any of the ensembles, though a few others were pretty strong too.

M.T. Cranium · 21-10-2013 8:03pm

ECM 12z now brings strongest winds Sunday night, not quite as strong either. Lots of time left for this to evolve and really the windy potential is probably spread out over Sunday to mid-week or later (1 Nov). Trick or treat?

leahyl · 21-10-2013 8:33pm

Oh I love a good storm!! Pretty darn wet and windy here at the moment actually...

maquiladora · 21-10-2013 9:04pm

Just for fun, another look at that 12Z GFS. Simulated IR imagery and the hi-res version showing pressure down to 945mb approaching the northwest of Ireland.

Hooter23 · 21-10-2013 10:41pm

There showing tomorrows newspapers on sky news frontpage on one of them said "90mph Storm of the Century to batter Britain "do they know more than we know :eek:Or just tryin to sell more papers:rolleyes:

ninebeanrows · 21-10-2013 10:57pm

Hooter23 wrote: »

There showing tomorrows newspapers on sky news frontpage on one of them said "90mph Storm of the Century to batter Britain "do they know more than we know :eek:Or just tryin to sell more papers:rolleyes:

Is it the Express by any chance!? Must be some serious weather junkie in there!

downwiththatsor · 21-10-2013 11:09pm

http://t.co/5rD0StNHi3
Daily Express 90Mph gales!

maquiladora · 21-10-2013 11:37pm

The 945mb low off the northwest coast bringing severe gusts to the west coast on the 12Z GFS is now (on the 18Z GFS) a 980mb low off the southwest bringing severe gusts to no place. FI indeed. :pac:

Tazio · 22-10-2013 8:52am

A run from today taken from here :http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

and Jetstream for the craic too..

Admitting I'm very very very amateur at this stuff, does the probability increase with each run IF each run is calculating/predicting the roughly the same outcome?

dopolahpec · 22-10-2013 8:58am

I've been watching the storm potential, and it seems to have downgraded overnight, though there's every chance something like it could reappear again. Of the main models only the GFS is now showing a potential 'storm' and it is definitely not as severe as what it showed yesterday.

If you would like to follow the models yourself you can get them at meteociel.fr. You can use google translate on the page as it is in French. All the output can be animated to give an idea of trends. Also the GFS updates 4 times a day, and the ECM twice a day.

maquiladora · 22-10-2013 9:20am

dopolahpec wrote: »

I've been watching the storm potential, and it seems to have downgraded overnight, though there's every chance something like it could reappear again. Of the main models only the GFS is now showing a potential 'storm' and it is definitely not as severe as what it showed yesterday.

If you would like to follow the models yourself you can get them at meteociel.fr. You can use google translate on the page as it is in French. All the output can be animated to give an idea of trends. Also the GFS updates 4 times a day, and the ECM twice a day.

Yeah it's back on the 0Z GFS. At this range you'd always expect to see a lot of variation from run to run anyway.

0Z GEM with something similar.

Which would have very strong winds, but because of that particular track they'd stay out at sea to our south.

ECM isn't on board though.

ninebeanrows · 22-10-2013 11:21am

The Daily Express will like the 6z GFS with the risk of it's 90mph winds in the UK!

maquiladora · 22-10-2013 11:30am

06Z GFS develops the low later, with it deepening as it crosses UK & and Ireland.

Which would give the southeast a bit of battering as it zipped by. Shows sustained winds up to 65kts, hurricane force, between Wexford and Wales. Anyone fancy the ferry?

Still a long way off, just interesting to see what happens from run to run.

Iancar29 · 22-10-2013 11:54am

Was just gonna post the O6z run too! , heavent seen a low that strength go that southerly route in a long time.

Must ....... not get excited ....

If this was only T+12 hrs though id be like this..

km79 · 22-10-2013 12:13pm

Flying Manchester to Shannon Monday night 830pm.........

maquiladora · 22-10-2013 12:37pm

06Z GFS. About a 1/4 of the ensembles have a more intense low than the operational run, some of them are really deep for a low taking such a southerly track...

Elmer Blooker · 22-10-2013 12:40pm

Iancar29 wrote: »

Was just gonna post the O6z run too! , heavent seen a low that strength go that southerly route in a long time.

neither have I. They better have the sandbags ready in Cork city centre just in case the low does takes that track, a tidal storm surge would be a serious concern.

Villain · 22-10-2013 1:27pm

It's a bit far out yet but certainly one to keep an eye on, would be unusual track with the East seen the worst of the winds.

dopolahpec · 22-10-2013 2:25pm

It's certainly an interesting one to watch. While it is all over the place at the moment, disappearing, reappearing, tracking north, south, developing out at sea, developing as it passes over Ireland, the notable thing is that the GFS is doggedly hanging on to it, with support from the GEM in particular and intermittent support from the ECM. Exciting to track, though I don't know if it would be too exciting to have your roof ripped off. Anyway, I'll be keeping a close eye on it in the days to come. Still almost a week away, that is a long time in weather world, whatever occurs, as always it won't be what the models show today.

maquiladora · 22-10-2013 3:45pm

Just for fun, one of the 06Z GFS ensembles is showing this. Location is Dublin Airport.

howlinwolf · 22-10-2013 4:23pm

ah nuts....flying to England Saturday and flying home Monday ..could get interesting :eek:

Iancar29 · 22-10-2013 4:29pm

maquiladora wrote: »

Just for fun, one of the 06Z GFS ensembles is showing this. Location is Dublin Airport.

And here it is!

maquiladora · 22-10-2013 5:19pm

Some big differences with the 12Z GFS. Barely manages to close off a 990mb low this time.

maquiladora · 22-10-2013 6:03pm

12Z GEM has also dropped it too now.

ninebeanrows · 22-10-2013 11:18pm

The 18z has the storm back and pounding parts of England.

Looking at the ECMWF stamps at 132hrs a number of members have a system but the major trend at the minute is to have the storm further south than in recent days with parts of southwestern France even at risk in some sols.

Troublesome feature for forecasters.

An interesting feature:

maquiladora · 22-10-2013 11:42pm

Yeah, it's back again on the 18Z GFS. Gales for southwest and southern England, not so bad here on this run. Impossible to know what will really happen yet.

Weathering · 23-10-2013 12:29am

These storms usually track further North so hopefully we get in on the action. At last something to keep a eye on

Danno · 23-10-2013 3:04am

Did someone mention a hurricane was on the way?

maquiladora · 23-10-2013 8:17am

0Z GFS.

Which would being storm force winds to the east coast and inland gales.

0Z GEM similar, a little more intense and further south than the GFS, southern England gets the brunt and we miss most of the strong winds on this track.

0Z ECM has it even further south, in the English channel, and weaker than GFS/GEM.

Danno · 23-10-2013 10:33am

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

North Atlantic generally 2-3 C above normal across 45-55N, bookmark this for future reference:

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2013/anomnight.10.21.2013.gif

(bookmark the first part of that address anyway, you'll get a menu with updates twice a week on all regions and global.

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/index.html is the menu.

Rikand · 23-10-2013 10:53am

Weathering wrote: »

These storms usually track further North so hopefully we get in on the action. At last something to keep a eye on

South coast is due a storm

we'll let you get the next one

Tazio · 23-10-2013 11:14am

GFS again this morning.... [06Z]

maquiladora · 23-10-2013 11:29am

06Z GFS is pretty similar to the 0Z. Isobars are a bit slacker on this run even though the MSLP is a bit lower, so not as windy for us if this happened. The exact track and the timing of the deepening won't be nailed down for a while yet.

pad199207 · 23-10-2013 11:40am

yeah but you still talking gusts 120 kmh plus with that chart!

maquiladora · 23-10-2013 11:52am

pad199207 wrote: »

yeah but you still talking gusts 120 kmh plus with that chart!

Not for us on that run though, GFS showing max gusts around 75 km/h on coasts, closer to 120 on the east coast of England though.

The potential is there though, interesting one to watch the models handle.

Hooter23 · 23-10-2013 12:24pm

Apocalyptic lol:pac:

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/438151/Apocalyptic-weather-to-batter-UK-expect-relentless-rainstorms-and-terrifying-winds

Rikand · 23-10-2013 12:48pm

I know its a bit far away to say, but I am due to fly out from Dublin on Tuesday night to Liverpool. Will there still be strong winds around for that (i.e. strong enough that it might affect the flight taking off/landing ? )

maquiladora · 23-10-2013 12:51pm

Rikand wrote: »

I know its a bit far away to say, but I am due to fly out from Dublin on Tuesday night to Liverpool. Will there still be strong winds around for that (i.e. strong enough that it might affect the flight taking off/landing ? )

No, you'll be fine.

Gratzi22 · 23-10-2013 1:02pm

HI Guys, I booked a day return sailing from Dublin to Holyhead for the family on Monday 28th just as a day out/treat (first time on boat, etc) Should I cancel it now or wait and see if the storm shifts further south? Don't want to put my young lad off sailing on his first attempt. Cheers.

Hooter23 · 23-10-2013 1:04pm

The potential storm looks to far south for the worst of the winds to affect us here in the west but I think when these storms are ugraded in strength that usually makes them track more northward so it still could happen still plenty of time for track/intensity to change.

maquiladora · 23-10-2013 1:16pm

Gratzi22 wrote: »

HI Guys, I booked a day return sailing from Dublin to Holyhead for the family on Monday 28th just as a day out/treat (first time on boat, etc) Should I cancel it now or wait and see if the storm shifts further south? Don't want to put my young lad off sailing on his first attempt. Cheers.

It could easily turn out to be weaker, further south or pass through earlier. Or any combination of the above. Nothing nailed yet, should have a better idea by Friday I'd say.

Tazio · 23-10-2013 3:47pm

Met.ie are posting the following on their website at this time:

[23 October 2013 11:01]
This weekend:
There is a possibility of widespread wet and windy conditions Saturday morning clearing during the second half of the day and then followed by windy, showery days for Sunday and Monday with some heavy showers likely but some sunny spells also. Winds may increase to gale force at times.
Temperatures around normal with maxima typically 12 or 13 degrees.

So nothing to worry about at the moment..

The BBC are posting the following:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167

Monday 28 October—Sunday 3 November

Are we stuck with low pressure over the UK?

With low pressure still expected to be flirting with the shores of the British Isles, all signs point to our weather remaining unsettled into early November. One subtle change in the positioning of the low pressure centre, with it migrating to the north of the UK, which may mean that southern and eastern parts are spared the worst of the weather. Rain and showers should become increasingly confined to northern and western parts. Temperatures by this stage will start to fall closer to the seasonal norm.

pad199207 · 23-10-2013 4:09pm

Id say this will be pushed further South as we get closer to the event!

I dont think it will have much of an impact here windwise

Possible Storm / Strong winds 26th to 28th October 2013 ?

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