*** Heavy Rain and High Winds for many as Storm approaches(Mon 24th - Tues 25th Sept)

zerks wrote: »

Was mentioned on the forecast after the news,they aren't sure of the track.Jean Byrne said it may hit us or veer off through Southern England.Don't want it so let it head East.

Yeah there is a huge difference at 96 hours on the global models. The GFS and ECM have it over UK/Ireland at that time while the UKMO and GEM have it over Germany, and the NOGAPS doesn't develop it at all. Unusual to see such a wide difference at that timescale.

Edit : Haha, did I put that thumbs down icon in this post or did someone not like it? :P

Huge change on the 18Z GFS. It is now more in line with the UKMO and GEM. Ireland doesn't get impact at all from this low now as it heads much further east and much weaker.

We do get some rain from another system coming down from Iceland later though.

Edit: I see Spawn of Nadine Part 2 at 150 hours? Haha



Probably will be gone on the next run.

And Met Eireann's 2300 update....Saturday night will remain dry over much of the country, but rain will spread into south Munster and south Leinster late in the night. The rain will become widespread and heavy during Sunday across Munster, Leinster and east Ulster but amounts will be small further west where it'll stay mostly dry. It'll be mild in a fresh northeast breeze. Monday will be a mostly cloudy day with further outbreaks of rain across Ulster and Leinster, while other areas will have sunny breaks and occasional showers. Northwest winds will be fresh and blustery. It'll stay cool, very changeable and unsettled for both Tuesday and Wednesday as an extensive low pressure area predominates over Ireland. Showers will be widespread and heavy with some prolonged, along with possible hail and thunder. Strong gusty southwest winds on Tuesday will turn to an east or northeast direction for Wednesday. Thursday will be a brighter and mostly dry day with lighter winds. The latter part of the week will be mostly dry also as winds swing to the northwest. However eastern counties will have showers on occasions, and overall temperatures will be below normal.

Redsunset wrote: »

Interesting that NOAA still tracking low towards us in latest report.

The plot thickens. Until the next run at last.

Probably based on the 12Z GFS.

I think we'll have a clearer picture in the morning after the 0Z runs.

Some pretty intense precip coming if the GFS is to be correct.

Could be severe flood risk for the north and east if things move in that direction.

Its probably more interesting because of its early season arrival, but I think if this showed up in the first week of November it would hardly raise an eyebrow.

I'm expecting a dirty wet day as your Granny might say, no doubt it will give the autumn leaf fall a good start with some surface flooding but Id be surprised if the wind gusts and rainfall totals were anything remarkable

Prediction 35mm max 24hr total at Johnstown Castle, 38kt gust at Dublin Airport

Before the ECM appears, can already note that all other reliable global models have ended the experiment of Nadine heading into Europe and seem to be reverting to the southwest track.

As to the main event the trend seems to be holding for the N American models to suggest a wider loop than the UK or German competitors, in fact the UK model basically bounces the low off some sort of Dublin shield on its 12z run.

There is a continued trend towards slower evolution of the storm.

Now we await the verdict of the big kahuna (but keep in mind, the ECM reputation is based on a 5% or thereabouts edge over the GFS or GEM or UK models, so it's always best to take a consensus).

Weathercheck wrote: »

0z GFS looks abysmal. Some intense rain and strong winds for prolonged period, get your wet gear at the ready.

so we still don't know what's happening in 48 hours time? That's gas.

0Z GFS is very different to the 18Z.

Accumulated rainfall to next Friday has over 120mm of rain for parts of eastern Ireland and over 130mm for parts of Wales.



Windy everywhere with gales in some coastal regions if this came off.



We'll see what changes with the 06Z models soon.

Just as a comparison, here is what the GEM is showing for the same time as the GFS above :

Yep , could be bad if any of that rain arrives with gusty winds . Gusts in the 60mph region possible for the N & NW too. I think this warrants a Level One now at least.

Interesting 06Z HIRLAM. It tracks the low further west than the GFS, NAE etc.

A big difference in the rainfall.

Over 50mm of rain for parts of Ulster falling in less than 24 hours here.



Much more than what the GFS is showing for the same time:

up for anything wrote: »

It better rain now and good. I just spent the best part of three hours clearing the accumulation and growth of what looks like twenty years out of the gutter. :mad:

Are you in Kilkenny? I wouldn't expect much rain there at all. It's really the east/north that is at risk of the heavy rain.