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Very Cold, Snowy Weather Feb 28th - March 3rd 2015

  • 26-02-2015 5:50am
    #1
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,900 ✭✭✭✭


    Folks,

    A big change is a foot in the model output from the end of this weekend. The weather is set to get a lot colder with plenty of snow in prospect for some and an easterly later in the period increasingly likely(most likely middle of next week). Frost and ice are also to make a comeback either way.

    The hallmarks of a significant period of cold weather are there. Keep up to date here as this evolves as some disruption is increasingly likely.

    Initially the problem is from the northwest as very cold and unstable air crosses the country during Saturday night. Winds will also pick up significantly giving storm like conditions particularly in the west on Saturday night but the wind will abate through Sunday. There is also the risk of frontal snow in the northern half of the country on Sunday night.

    gfs-0-96.png?0


    From then on it's a case of where the cold comes from. Initially as I say it is from the northwest and western and northern counties are at real risk of significant snowfall and snow showers should extend east as well to most places at times.

    Later winds tend to to go more northerly and then a possible easterly in most of the output and this would mean the east and northeast are more vulnerable to potential snow and disruption.

    The GFS and UKMO have now sided with this scenario although it could still change. I am comfortable though with this forecast as I think it represents the most likely outcome right now.

    It's something to be aware of and to keep up to date with for cold, wind and potential snowfall. More details from me later today including charts and synopsis etc.

    *Just to note the other thread regarding snow risk for Thursday (today) in the north west of the country.

    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057386993


«134567…15

Comments

  • #2
    jacksie66
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,988 ✭✭✭jacksie66


    This post has been deleted.


  • #3
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,900 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    jacksie66 wrote: »
    Bollox. I land in Dublin on Saturday morning. It's over 25c here most days in Christchurch. I'm gonna freeze..

    Saturday morning will be grand. 5 or 6c. Not too bad. If you arrived on Sunday or Monday you would get more sympathy:P


  • #4
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,981 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    Sunday night getting more and more interesting


  • #5
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,900 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    JanuarySnowstor wrote: »
    Sunday night getting more and more interesting

    GFS has backed a way a little bit from the bigger frontal snow event it was progging in the last few runs but a lot of shower activity on the latest for Sunday night.


  • #6
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,981 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    GFS has backed a way a little bit from the bigger frontal snow event it was progging in the last few runs but a lot of shower activity on the latest for Sunday night.
    Yes as always time will tell

    Still good potential and showery is probably a safer bet than frontal with possible mild sectors


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  • #7
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,900 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    JanuarySnowstor wrote: »
    Yes as always time will tell

    Still good potential and showery is probably a safer bet than frontal with possible mild sectors

    No problem atm. Sunday night is when the action get going in terms of showers turning to snow. Monday and Tuesday looking very cold

    ECM0-96.GIF?26-0

    ECM0-120.GIF?26-0


  • #8
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,981 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    Must be record cold from a westerly

    Thanks to severe cold pumping down through the east US last few weeks I guess

    For those who think this winter was bad think again.
    Late February and yet to see a daffodil down here


  • #9
    redsteveireland
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,039 ✭✭✭redsteveireland


    JanuarySnowstor wrote: »
    Must be record cold from a westerly

    Thanks to severe cold pumping down through the east US last few weeks I guess

    For those who think this winter was bad think again.
    Late February and yet to see a daffodil down here
    Strange, our daffodils are almost flowering and the place is covered in snowdrops for the last week. The grass has had a sudden growth spurt too.


  • #10
    Baggy Trousers
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,816 ✭✭✭Baggy Trousers


    redsteveireland wrote: »
    Strange, our daffodils are almost flowering and the place is covered in snowdrops for the last week. The grass has had a sudden growth spurt too.

    Tell me about it, watching that grass grow again breaks my heart!


  • #11
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,959 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    JanuarySnowstor wrote: »
    Must be record cold from a westerly

    Late February and yet to see a daffodil down here

    While many of us have seen very little snow, this winter has to be the coldest since 2010. We've had loads of frost, horrible wind chill factors and generally temps in the low single digits since the start of January. Im really looking forward to milder conditions hopefully once we get the next week out of the way.


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  • #12
    Baggy Trousers
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,816 ✭✭✭Baggy Trousers


    In terms of hill walking, Wednesday/Thursday looks like a good day to go in Connemara, correct?


  • #13
    RobertKK
    Registered Users Posts: 33,752 ✭✭✭✭RobertKK


    Baggy Trousers wrote: »
    Tell me about it, watching that grass grow again breaks my heart!

    Not for farmers...


  • #14
    Baggy Trousers
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,816 ✭✭✭Baggy Trousers


    RobertKK wrote: »
    Not for farmers...

    I know I know...but it's Feb!
    I need a new lawnmower....


  • #15
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,900 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    The trough lines are queuing up for early next week offering enhanced shower activity and it looks like on Monday and Tuesday a lot of places will do well for snow particularly at night and some heavy falls during daylight too with a little bit of inland convection at this time of year.

    fax72s.gif?2

    fax84s.gif?2


    I think snow will settle during night time hours.


  • #16
    Rikand
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,421 ✭✭✭✭Rikand


    What kind of temperatures on a surface level we be looking at with this for the weekend ?


  • #17
    highdef
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,323 ✭✭✭highdef


    I think for the eastern half of the country, the best chances of lying snow would probably be due to a combination of a trough line of enhanced convection transferring across the eastern half of the country and the time being around about nightfall. As Kermit mentioned, there is enough radiation in the sun at this stage in the year for a bit of solar heating to aid any convection. That being said, that same solar heating has the negative of heating the land somewhat which makes sticking snow increasingly difficult but if a band of showers or a large clump of showers were to reach the east coast around nightfall (after being aided by solar heating previously), then there might be a chance of something half decent in the east.

    But in any case, I doubt any lying snow on any morning will last beyond noon on any given day at sea level, going by current forecast.


  • #18
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,981 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    Yes snow will certainly lie at night on both Monday and Tuesday.
    Most likely melt by day but all and all looking good.

    I've had 3 days of lying snow here already this winter so it hasn't been bad.....In fact it's been very good


  • #19
    Strangegravy
    Registered Users Posts: 356 ✭✭Strangegravy


    Gonzo wrote: »
    While many of us have seen very little snow, this winter has to be the coldest since 2010. We've had loads of frost, horrible wind chill factors and generally temps in the low single digits since the start of January. Im really looking forward to milder conditions hopefully once we get the next week out of the way.

    Funny, down here in Limerick (IMBY) it's been one of the snowiest winters in the last 10 years at least. Had more snow this year than 2010, which was just very cold here and not much snow.

    That's not to say it was constant whiteouts, but compared to what we normally get, we've have a good winter for a snowbie. Early next week looks good again atm!


  • #20
    Duiske
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,087 ✭✭✭Duiske


    Looking particularly interesting for the North-West, especially on Tuesday with low temps, frequent heavy snow showers and very windy.


  • #21
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,900 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Only indicative but Euro 4 hinting at an early start on Sunday morning for precipitation beginning to snow.

    15030112_2712.gif


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  • #22
    SEPT 23 1989
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 43,028 ✭✭✭✭SEPT 23 1989


    East coast gets very little again


  • #23
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,900 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    SEPT 23 1989 wrote: »
    East coast gets very little again

    I disagree but wait and see:cool:


  • #24
    United road
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 223 ✭✭United road


    Hope you are right Kermit.
    Looking at ME forecast they suggest some showers at times making it east, but nothing really stands out over the next few days for the east according to them.


  • #25
    Baggy Trousers
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,816 ✭✭✭Baggy Trousers


    I am surprised there's isn't more excitement about the snow for Monday/Tuesday. Sounds like high ground will get a good snowfall and lower levels could get some blizzard like conditions. Who doesn't like a blizzard!?


  • #26
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,959 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Baggy Trousers wrote: »
    I am surprised there's isn't more excitement about the snow for Monday/Tuesday. Sounds like high ground will get a good snowfall and lower levels could get some blizzard like conditions. Who doesn't like a blizzard!?

    that's because most people here live in Leinster and the risk of seeing decent snow is quite slim! A few light showers may break through some overnight dustings. Many parts of the east and Dublin may not see a single flake.


  • #27
    Rock Lesnar
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,882 ✭✭✭✭Rock Lesnar


    Gonzo wrote: »
    that's because most people here live in Leinster and the risk of seeing decent snow is quite slim! A few light showers may break through some overnight dustings. Many parts of the east and Dublin may not see a single flake.

    Plus anything that falls will probably be very short lived during daylight hours i would imagine, so for me, its a waste of time


  • #28
    StewartGriffin
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,284 ✭✭✭StewartGriffin


    Gonzo wrote: »
    that's because most people here live in Leinster and the risk of seeing decent snow is quite slim! A few light showers may break through some overnight dustings. Many parts of the east and Dublin may not see a single flake.

    True. Also MT has forecast it only for high ground, and Met eireann haven't flagged it at all yet. I think people have learned not to get too excited about some of the threads predicting snow here.


  • #29
    milli milli
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,247 ✭✭✭milli milli


    Baggy Trousers wrote: »
    I am surprised there's isn't more excitement about the snow for Monday/Tuesday. Sounds like high ground will get a good snowfall and lower levels could get some blizzard like conditions. Who doesn't like a blizzard!?


    I'm excited and I live in the west!
    Really hoping this comes true.
    I had one glorious snowday back in January. Took a day off and spent about 6 hours walking in the snow. Ended up with a bad cold from it but it was worth it!
    I felt like I was in an Alpine wonderland.
    I would love another day like that!

    Believe!!!


  • #30
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,981 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    The situation on Monday Tuesday looks ripe to me for heavy snow showers esp further West.

    For my location in Cork we did very well recently under a polar westerly and thickness and uppers are even better this time.

    Yes snow will melt by day but both Monday and Tuesday mornings look whiteout to me


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  • #31
    pauldry
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,174 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Therel be snow in the west monday night as every snow morning in sligo this wintr has been a tuesday bar a friday and a sunday


  • #32
    Strangegravy
    Registered Users Posts: 356 ✭✭Strangegravy


    15030206_2812.gif

    You'd take that right now! But unfortunately these snow maps can be very hit and miss. Still, would love to go for an early morning drive again!!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fEGFtUfivjY


  • #33
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,900 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    StewartGriffin wrote: »
    True. Also MT has forecast it only for high ground, and Met eireann haven't flagged it at all yet. I think people have learned not to get too excited about some of the threads predicting snow here.

    With all due respect this is not MT's forecast or ME's forecast, it is my forecast. If you don't like it or have an issue don't read the thread or any thread started by me. You have that choice.

    I will give an update later today on this thread as to the scenario for tonight, Monday, Monday night and Tuesday. Suffice to say some warnings are coming for certain areas.


  • #34
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,981 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    Well met eireann have been dragged kicking and screaming towards this cold spell with a refusal to up the ante until this morning. Expect a warning imminent.

    For Corkonians expect heavy snow showers from early tonight leaving a widespread deposit of several cm by morning. Hilly locations will be dangerous. Tomorrow showers will continue throughout with only short dry sunny spells. By tomorrow night several inches will lie on hills.

    This is the most potent cold spell all Winter and whilst it's March now it will deliver for favoured locations


  • #35
    kingshankly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,589 ✭✭✭kingshankly


    Christ that was a wild night here in South armargh so much for in like a lamb


  • #36
    redsteveireland
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,039 ✭✭✭redsteveireland


    Wet snow mixed with rain here in East Galway. Bodes well for what lies ahead if it is going to get colder!


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  • #37
    Strangegravy
    Registered Users Posts: 356 ✭✭Strangegravy


    A sleet/rain mix falling here in Limerick, interesting that it's turning wintery this early, looking good for some snow showers this evening and overnight if this is the case...


  • #38
    jimmyjim11
    Registered Users Posts: 257 ✭✭jimmyjim11


    heavy sleet shower a while ago stuck on car and grass west limerick high ground


  • #39
    Pangea
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭Pangea


    In fariness last thursday Met eireann had snow in their forecast for sunday/monday/ tuesday. Yesterday they toned it down but defintely on the cards again according to their latest forecast, M.T.s forecast is not bad reading either. :)
    Kermit called for Cold from NW for a few weeks now, so kudos to him.


  • #40
    hoody
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 698 ✭✭✭hoody


    Snowing fairly heavily here in Loughrea, starting to stick too. No run this morning!


  • #41
    average_runner
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,855 ✭✭✭✭average_runner


    hoody wrote: »
    Snowing fairly heavily here in Loughrea, starting to stick too. No run this morning!


    Its actually nice to run in it, something different


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  • #42
    Pete2k
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 290 ✭✭Pete2k


    Heavy wet snow in west Roscommon sticking to cars and grass...


  • #43
    TheBody
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,629 ✭✭✭TheBody


    Half snow/rain here in Mullingar.


  • #44
    km79
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 48,254 ✭✭✭✭km79


    hoody wrote: »
    Snowing fairly heavily here in Loughrea, starting to stick too. No run this morning!

    thats mad I'm only 10 k or so from loughrea and it's raining :(


  • #45
    zidewayz
    Registered Users Posts: 95 ✭✭zidewayz


    Wet snow Rathcoole Co Dublin.


  • #46
    redsteveireland
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,039 ✭✭✭redsteveireland


    km79 wrote: »
    thats mad I'm only 10 k or so from loughrea and it's raining :(

    Loughrea always does well in snow events, annoyingly :-)
    Snowing here again.
    Proper full-on snow sticking to cars etc.


  • #47
    jArgHA
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,278 ✭✭✭jArgHA


    We had heavy rain / sleety stuff here in Cork city this morning from about 9am for just under an hour, hopeful for some snow tonight...

    I noticed this interesting horse-shoe type pattern on the rainfall radar at the moment:
    EIiuYgP.png


  • #48
    km79
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 48,254 ✭✭✭✭km79


    redsteveireland wrote: »
    Loughrea always does well in snow events, annoyingly :-)
    Snowing here again.

    and it has begun!


  • #49
    SEPT 23 1989
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 43,028 ✭✭✭✭SEPT 23 1989


    Sleet with ever increasing flakes of snow mixed in

    Newcastle Dublin


  • #50
    Pipitypippip
    Registered Users Posts: 7 ✭Pipitypippip


    Sleet in longford turning to snow now


  • #51
    Baggy Trousers
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,816 ✭✭✭Baggy Trousers


    Serious snow in west Galway (near Oughterard) now! Biggest flakes I have seen in years!
    So exciting!!!

    It is sticking despite the wet ground.


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