Cameron's Plan For No-Fly Zone Over Libya

BrianD · 11-03-2011 10:39am

Victor wrote: »

Egypt has just undergone a revolution and it probably would look good for the military government to get involved in other people's problems just now. Saudi is too far away.

They could still put together a multi national Arab or African force and they could operate from Malta or wherever the western forces were going to operate from.

Time to put the ball in these guys courts. Did the west equip these guys for the sake of selling them something and keep the jobs going in Boeing or were they equipped to do a job? Time for the west to step back and let them step up.

Victor · 11-03-2011 9:45pm

BrianD wrote: »

Did the west equip these guys for the sake of selling them something and keep the jobs going in Boeing

Mostly this.

Separately, they were armed to reduce the Soviet Union's influence and to retain the existing pecking order (both within and between countries) except for the shift from supporting Iran to Saudi Arabia.

BrianD · 15-03-2011 9:15pm

I wonder will the push for a no fly zone over Bahrain be as strong as the one for Libya?

Manic Moran · 15-03-2011 9:30pm

BrianD wrote: »

I wonder will the push for a no fly zone over Bahrain be as strong as the one for Libya?

If the Bahraininan Air Force starts the same level of bombing and strafing, it's possible.

NTM

Steyr · 16-03-2011 1:56am

Still interesting Aircraft coming and going in the Med.

Very special flight this evening DHC-8-202Q Dash 8 tail nr N349PH overhead Mediterranean, this one belongs to the USAF 524th SOS Cannon AFB
1:05 PM Mar 14th

First USAF Boeing E-3B Sentry tail nr 77-0352 landed as SHUCK 80 at Trapani Italy LICT
1:08 PM Mar 14th

Raging_Ninja · 16-03-2011 1:46pm

Looks like a no-fly zone will be too late in any case.

BlaasForRafa · 16-03-2011 4:49pm

Raging_Ninja wrote: »

Looks like a no-fly zone will be too late in any case.

All this dithering around for weeks by the UN/NATO/Arab League/Whoever has let Gaddafi have the time to regroup his forces and counter attack the rebels. A prime chance to get rid of a tyrant has been let slip away.

Its kind of sickening that a few mirage jets, a few dozen t-62s and some Katyusha rocket launchers has been enough to turn the tide of the war. A couple of days of F/A 18 and A-10 bombing would have disabled Gaddafi's forces completely.

Raging_Ninja · 16-03-2011 5:26pm

BlaasForRafa wrote: »

All this dithering around for weeks by the UN/NATO/Arab League/Whoever has let Gaddafi have the time to regroup his forces and counter attack the rebels. A prime chance to get rid of a tyrant has been let slip away.

Its kind of sickening that a few mirage jets, a few dozen t-62s and some Katyusha rocket launchers has been enough to turn the tide of the war. A couple of days of F/A 18 and A-10 bombing would have disabled Gaddafi's forces completely.

Thing is though, why didn't the ones who wanted the no-fly-zone go and actually, you know, set up one themselves. Surely between Egypt, Italy, Britain, etc they had enough to do the job.

Oh wait, they wanted the US to do it for them.

BrianD · 16-03-2011 6:47pm

Manic Moran wrote: »

If the Bahraininan Air Force starts the same level of bombing and strafing, it's possible.

NTM

Oh, so it's only when you use aircraft you get into trouble? So this has nothing to do democracy and is more of a levelling of the playing field between sides.

Like Libya, Bahrain is prime for western intervention. Oh I forgot, they're friendly despots and not recently de-friended despots!

Quite handy given that the US has assets there. They can just nip over the fence.

Manic Moran · 16-03-2011 6:58pm

Oh, so it's only when you use aircraft you get into trouble?So this has nothing to do democracy and is more of a levelling of the playing field between sides.

So it seems. I think it's a daft concept, there's not supposed to be any 'fair' business in a conflict. You play to win. And if the NFZ doesn't have any huge effect (and it won't), what's next? A no FROG zone? A no artillery zone? A no tank zone? A no heavy-machinegun zone? A no-anything-that-the-rebels-don't-have-an-equal-amount-of zone? It's stupid.

If intervening forces act to prevent Loyalist aircraft from conducting operations, they're taken sides, but not really provided any tangible assistance to the rebel forces, who are going to get crushed anyway. In effect, they piss absolutely everyone off and achieve nothing.

NTM

BrianD · 16-03-2011 7:03pm

Manic Moran wrote: »

So this has nothing to do democracy and is more of a levelling of the playing field between sides.

So it seems. I think it's a daft concept, there's not supposed to be any 'fair' business in a conflict. You play to win. And if the NFZ doesn't have any huge effect (and it won't), what's next? A no FROG zone? A no artillery zone? A no tank zone? A no heavy-machinegun zone? A no-anything-that-the-rebels-don't-have-an-equal-amount-of zone? It's stupid.

If intervening forces act to prevent Loyalist aircraft from conducting operations, they're taken sides, but not really provided any tangible assistance to the rebel forces, who are going to get crushed anyway. In effect, they piss absolutely everyone off and achieve nothing.

NTM[/QUOTE]

I would certainly agree with you on that point.

It seems to me that the only reason that the rebels gained ground is because nobody challenged them. Now that they are being challenged they are being pushed back.

What is extremely obvious is the lack of "reach out" by the rest of the world to those on the rebel side. A no fly zone won't do much in the long run to restore democracy.

Donny5 · 16-03-2011 7:15pm

Manic Moran wrote: »

...what's next? A no FROG zone?

I hope so. Keep those French bastards out of Africa.

Steyr · 17-03-2011 1:27am

Two Belgian F-16's from 10th Tactical Wing near Malta/Libyan airspace 12:30UTC, F-16 tail nrs FA136 & FA123.

BrianD · 17-03-2011 12:01pm

Steyr wrote: »

Two Belgian F-16's from 10th Tactical Wing near Malta/Libyan airspace 12:30UTC, F-16 tail nrs FA136 & FA123.

Bit far of course but I doubt if they have anything to do with the no-fly zone. The Belgians don't seem to have a position on it. NATO have already stated their position on the no-fly zone.

Also now that the Bahrain government is doing the same as Gaddafy I think the zeal for a no fly zone will rapidly diminish. What's good for the goose is good for the gander. The Bahrain government are firing on their people and using all their military assets and getting a loan of some from the neighbours. While there's no evidence that aircraft have been used in anger they certainly have attack helicopters (Cobra) in the air.

maquiladora · 17-03-2011 2:44pm

NATO Secretary-General Rasmussen says alliance is ready to protect Libyan civilians

BRUSSELS (BNO NEWS) -- NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen on Thursday said the alliance is ready to protect Libyan civilians against government-led attacks.

Rasmussen made the comments on his official Twitter account, urging the United Nations Security Council to reach an agreement. "If [Libyan leader] Gaddafi prevails it will send a clear signal that violence pays," he wrote.

The United Nations Security Council is currently debating a draft resolution which would authorize a no-fly zone being imposed in Libya, where government forces have violently cracked down on anti-government protesters. Some leaders have criticized the Council for being too slow to react.

maquiladora · 17-03-2011 5:22pm

UN vote happening at 7:30pm our time today. France saying that actions could be taken within hours of a vote passing.

BrianD · 17-03-2011 6:58pm

maquiladora wrote: »

NATO Secretary-General Rasmussen says alliance is ready to protect Libyan civilians

BRUSSELS (BNO NEWS) -- NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen on Thursday said the alliance is ready to protect Libyan civilians against government-led attacks.

Rasmussen made the comments on his official Twitter account, urging the United Nations Security Council to reach an agreement. "If [Libyan leader] Gaddafi prevails it will send a clear signal that violence pays," he wrote.

The United Nations Security Council is currently debating a draft resolution which would authorize a no-fly zone being imposed in Libya, where government forces have violently cracked down on anti-government protesters. Some leaders have criticized the Council for being too slow to react.

Talk about conflicting messages! If you Google "Nato no fly zone Libya" these are the first stories returned:

Libya: Is it too late for a no-fly zone?

Nato weighs Libya no-fly zone options

Libya: Nato considers no-fly zone without UN resolution

Libya unrest: NATO to discuss no-fly zone

NATO: Libyan no-fly zone carries complex risks .

NATO rules out Libya no-fly zone, for Libya

I'm guessing that the UN resolution won't pass. The Western powers want to be seen to be talking without having to do the walking. Particularly as many other friendly nations also lack democracy.

maquiladora · 17-03-2011 7:27pm

The draft resolution authorizes "”all necessary measures" to protect civilians.

Thats a lot more than just a no fly zone, thats a fairly sweeping authority for the use of force in general.

Vote has been delayed until about 11pm our time.

hmmm · 17-03-2011 7:32pm

Debka (which is mostly unreliable, but has had good accuracy on Libya) has this
http://debka.com/article/20772/

The US, British, French, UAE and Qatar air forces were on standby to attack Libyan army targets as soon as the resolution is passed.

Another part of the plan under consideration in Washington would entail strikes against Qaddafi's government and military centers in Tripoli, the capital.

According to our Washington sources, the Pentagon proposes to use the big Egyptian air base at El Mansoura in the Nile Delta for enforcing the no-fly zone and launching air attacks on Libya.

Another sign of President Obama's strong inclination to undertake military action beyond a no-fly zone came from the deployment Monday, March 14 of the nuclear attack submarine USS Providence off the Libyan coast.

hmmm · 17-03-2011 7:39pm

Manic Moran wrote: »

If intervening forces act to prevent Loyalist aircraft from conducting operations, they're taken sides, but not really provided any tangible assistance to the rebel forces, who are going to get crushed anyway. In effect, they piss absolutely everyone off and achieve nothing.

The BBC report tonight showed a large number of what I think were Gadaffi T72s, self propelled artillery and mobile anti air stuff around Ajdabia. There was also a destroyed ancient old tank (T-55?) shown, presumably belonging to the rebels. Interestingly I saw no BMPs, and as Khamis are mostly mechanised I wonder where they are currently (if I was in Tobruk I'd be running). The rebels in comparison have mostly small arms and I swear I've been seeing the same Grad truck for a week. Like you say, without at a minimum attacks on ground forces it won't make much difference.

(edit) Gadaffi is currently giving a very belligerent speech saying he has ordered an attack tonight on Benghazi and is also threatening Tunisia, Egypt and Qatar.

maquiladora · 17-03-2011 7:50pm

Gaddafi says "we are coming tonight" and "there won't be any mercy" - Reuters

Also...

"Any foreign military act against Libya will expose all air and maritime traffic in the Mediterranean Sea to danger and civilian and military (facilities) will become targets of Libya's counter-attack," said the statement broadcase on Libyan television and distributed by the official news agency JANA.

"The Mediterranean basin will face danger not just in the short-term, but also in the long-term," it said.

hmmm · 17-03-2011 7:56pm

Even if they do start attacking ground targets, I'm not sure what can be done about Misrata. I suspect it is indefensible, even if Benghazi can be saved I imagine we will see a massacre take place there.

maquiladora · 17-03-2011 8:02pm

hmmm wrote: »

Even if they do start attacking ground targets, I'm not sure what can be done about Misrata. I suspect it is indefensible, even if Benghazi can be saved I imagine we will see a massacre take place there.

Its sounding like the battle for Benghazi will start tonight. The UNSC vote isnt until 10pm GMT.

NBC : U.S. officials confident the expansive UN resolution including an "any means necessary" clause against Libya will be approved in 6pm vote

^^
They wouldnt say that or even put it to a vote if they didn't know they had the votes secured now.

I'm wouldn't be surprised if there was frantic planning going on right now and some type of action will follow very soon after the vote is passed.

hmmm · 17-03-2011 8:27pm

maquiladora wrote: »

I'm wouldn't be surprised if there was frantic planning going on right now and some type of action will follow very soon after the vote is passed.

I'm not sure from where though. The French from Chad perhaps? Long range from France itself? Is there a base on Corsica? I don't where the British will fly from - Cyprus? The nearest US carrier is in the Red Sea.

There is a Marine Harrier/helicopter carrier off Libya, that would be useful but Gadaffi has plenty of AA and SAMs. From the Debka article it sounds like the Egyptians are still considering whether to allow basing on their territory so it doesn't sound like there are many assets there.

I'd assume there are some special forces on the ground, so they could park a bomber overhead and use them for CAS, but that would require them making sure that there was no Libyan airforce or defences remaining. It'd be touch and go as to whether or not Benghazi could be saved in time.

I suppose Obama could land his MEF but that's probably a bit Walter Mitty.

maquiladora · 17-03-2011 8:42pm

hmmm wrote: »

I'm not sure from where though. The French from Chad perhaps? Long range from France itself? Is there a base on Corsica? I don't where the British will fly from - Cyprus? The nearest US carrier is in the Red Sea.

There is a Marine Harrier/helicopter carrier off Libya, that would be useful but Gadaffi has plenty of AA and SAMs. From the Debka article it sounds like the Egyptians are still considering whether to allow basing on their territory so it doesn't sound like there are many assets there.

I'd assume there are some special forces on the ground, so they could park a bomber overhead and use them for CAS, but that would require them making sure that there was no Libyan airforce or defences remaining. It'd be touch and go as to whether or not Benghazi could be saved in time.

I suppose Obama could land his MEF but that's probably a bit Walter Mitty.

AFP is now quoting French sources saying air raids targeting army positions could take place as soon as the vote is passed.

I would guess long range from French bases in the south. I read in another forum the French have Rafales on standby and that Denmark has some F-16s in France too.

Perhaps cruise missiles from subs in the Med against air bases / command & control targets or even a Global Reach mission?

Edit : Interesting Guardian article...

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/mar/17/libya-no-fly-zone-united-nations?CMP=twt_gu

Manic Moran · 17-03-2011 8:54pm

I read in another forum the French have Rafales on standby

Charles de Gaulle shouldn't take too long to get close enough, she's in Toulon last I checked.

NTM

maquiladora · 17-03-2011 9:03pm

Interesting :

RT @denisfitz: UAE, Jordan, Qatar and Saudi Arabia will participate in international effort to rout #Gaddafi, a European diplomat said

Russia & China will abstain, vote coming in just under 2 hours.

hmmm · 17-03-2011 9:04pm

One thing I find odd is that there has been little softening up of populations by politicians. Obama just gave a press statement and didn't mention Libya. Cameron hasn't mentioned it publicly. Sarkozy has been quite vocal, but I imagine some people in the US and UK might wake up surprised to hear they were effectively at war - or maybe nothing happens at all.

Some of those BMPs I was looking for showed up on Sky News, a long convoy of them. The soldiers they were showing look like a rabble however, I'm assuming there are some irregulars mixed in with Gadaffi's better troops.

hmmm · 17-03-2011 10:45pm

Juppe on AJE now.

17-03-2011 11:48pm

10 For, 0 Against, 5 Abstains.

No-Fly Zone Resolution Passed.

OS119 · 17-03-2011 11:52pm

Deleted User wrote: »

10 For, 0 Against, 5 Abstains.

No-Fly Zone Resolution Passed.

excellent - merely by passing the UNSCR it becomes more likely that Libyan AF jets will suffer unforseen 'servicability' issues...

Steyr · 18-03-2011 1:21am

Canada to send 6 CF-18Hornets to help enforce UN #NFZ over #Libya.

helimachoptor · 18-03-2011 10:39am

How likely do you guys think it will be to see an actual air to air engagement?

OS119 · 18-03-2011 11:29am

helimachoptor wrote: »

How likely do you guys think it will be to see an actual air to air engagement?

maybe one or two, but nothing systematic.

NATO is going to turn up with Typhoons, Rafales and F-16's in an fully networked package of AWACS, ELINT aircraft and Tankers - if there are going to be any A2A engagements the Libyans are going to turn up with single or paired Mirage F1's with no AWACS, ELINT or tanker support.

the results of such an engagement would be spectactularly one sided. what is more likely is that the LAF will suffer an entirely coincidental catastophic decline in its servicability rates followed by defections.

that or NATO will just bomb the sh1t out of it before it can get of the ground.

maquiladora · 18-03-2011 11:32am

I wonder will we see Scuds being fired at Lampedusa again....

0950 GMT: Britain's Royal Air Force is expected to send Tornado attack aircraft equipped with precise weapons from their bases in Marham, east England, and Lossiemouth in Scotland.

Cameron will give a statement to parliament at around 1100 GMT, when he is expected to lay out what role British forces may play, his Downing Street office says.

1022 GMT: Italy's TM News agency says the bases of Trapani Birgi in Sicily and Gioia del Colle in the southern region of Apulia could be made available for the operation to enforce the LIbyan no-fly zone.

BrianD · 18-03-2011 12:17pm

Here's the interesting thing.

- 50% or so of Libyan military air fields are or were in rebel hands.
- Most of the Libyan air force is in storage. The Rebels actually have a chunk of it themselves and are reported to have used some aircraft themselves

Is this a bit of huff and puff by the west. This fight is largely on the ground and while the resolution has a "attack anything we see fit", will the west actually do it?

I for one will be happy to see this despot gone but the hypocrisy of the West is stunning and we should all be ashamed. Despite the fact that this guy mounted terrorist attacks on the west and supplied the IRA in this country, we were all in like a shot as soon as the relations improved to help the regime.

There's no Cameron going on about "no mercy and no stone unturned" yet there is no action taken against British subjects who assisted the regime in the past decade. Shame on those Irish citizens who made a fuss about the Government not evacuating them fast enough. They are complicit in supporting the regime. And of course those the companies, organisations and individuals happy to take the Gaddaffy dollar. Cameron is yakking on about values where's ours?

It gets better, Cameron going on about mercenaries while the US military employs them in Iraq and Afghanistan and UK citizens are working as mercenaries, sorry "security contractors" in these nations. No action to be taken there it seems.

Ultimately, the Gadaffy military may be reduced to scrap metal but it ain't the solution. There's a lot of countries where the general population are kept in check with AK47's and hand grenades.

BTW the no-fly zone was first indicated as a box covering the north where most of the population live. Is it a defined area or is it the entire state of Libya?

maquiladora · 18-03-2011 12:34pm

BrianD wrote: »

BTW the no-fly zone was first indicated as a box covering the north where most of the population live. Is it a defined area or is it the entire state of Libya?

All Libyan airspace :

“6. Decides to establish a ban on all flights in the airspace of the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya in order to help protect civilians;

http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2011/sc10200.doc.htm#Resolution

Tabnabs · 18-03-2011 12:46pm

Tornado and Typhoon aircraft will move to airbases "in the coming hours" where they will "start to take the necessary action", the prime minister said.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/blog/2011/mar/18/libya-middle-east-bahrain-saudi-arabia

Captain Chaos · 18-03-2011 12:54pm

First time combat for the Typhoons, apart from intercepting Russian bombers. I doubt the Typhoons will be dropping anything, just combat air patrols for them. I don't think the Litening II/AT targeting pods are operational on them yet, unless they get Tornados to designate targets for them like what the Rafales do with the Mirage 2000Ds.

maquiladora · 18-03-2011 1:38pm

AFP: Spain will allow use of two military bases and also provide air and naval forces for use in air operations over Libya

AFP: Belgium is ready to take part in military action in Libya offers services of six F-16 fighter planes and a frigate

And interestingly....

LATEST ::Libya Foreign Minister has declared an Immediate Ceasefire, says state encourages opening of all dialog channels

Tabnabs · 18-03-2011 1:49pm

Gadaffi blinked first

1238: Libya's Foreign Minister says his country is committed to accept the UN Security Council resolution, and so has decided an immediate ceasefire and the stopping of all military operations.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12776418#video

maquiladora · 18-03-2011 2:02pm

Tabnabs wrote: »

Gadaffi blinked first

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12776418#video

France responds already

REU: FRANCE SAYS REMAINS CAUTIOUS AFTER LIBYAN CEASEFIRE ANNOUNCEMENT, "THREAT ON THE GROUND HAS NOT CHANGED"

BrianD · 18-03-2011 2:39pm

Tabnabs wrote: »

Gadaffi blinked first

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12776418#video

Which is now being regarded somewhat as a "stroke of genius". If a ceasefire is declared then the UN can't seen to be taking military action during the ceasefire. Puts the UN mandate in a difficult spot.

In the meantime his "police force" can continue about their business.

This is Iraq pre-2003 all over again. Nothing learned. If we want regime change - which seems to be the objective - then go in and do it.

What is worrying is that there seems to be very little political engagement going on with the rebels.

maquiladora · 18-03-2011 2:42pm

@cencio4 David Cenciotti
Breaking: Italian aircraft carrier Garibaldi, left Taranto for Libya. According to the news it's "fully armed". AV8Bs Harrier on board?

Reuters: Doctor in Libya's Misrata says govt forces still shelling city, 25 people killed

Libyan rebel commander says the Gadhafi ceasefire is "not important to us" - AFP

Morlar · 18-03-2011 3:23pm

maquiladora wrote: »

Libyan rebel commander says the Gadhafi ceasefire is "not important to us" - AFP

Does this mean the rebels will not recognise the ceasefire ?

Victor · 18-03-2011 3:31pm

maquiladora wrote: »

I wonder will we see Scuds being fired at Lampedusa again....

Again? has it happened before?

maquiladora · 18-03-2011 3:43pm

Morlar wrote: »

Does this mean the rebels will not recognise the ceasefire ?

It does sound like they are dismissing it.

Gaddafi ceasefire is a 'bluff': rebels

AFP

The commander of rebels fighting to overthrow Muammar Gaddafi says the Libyan strongman is "bluffing", reacting to news that the government had announcement an immediate ceasefire.

Khalifa Heftir told a press conference the ceasefire "is not important to us"; Gaddafi is "bluffing".

"Gaddafi does not speak any truth ... All the world knows that Muammar Gaddafi is a liar.

"He and his sons, and his family, and all those with him are liars."

If the rebels still want to push to Tripoli and force Gaddafi out then they are not going to be too interested in a ceasefire that just maintains the status quo. Not to mention the fact that a ceasefire now might throw a spanner in the works for air strikes along with the no fly zone.

If the reports from Misrata are true then the ceasefire doesn't even exist (yet) anyway...

maquiladora · 18-03-2011 3:45pm

Victor wrote: »

Again? has it happened before?

On April 15, 1986, Libya fired two Scuds at the U.S. Coast Guard navigation station on the Italian island, in retaliation for the American bombing of Tripoli and Benghazi, and the death of Colonel Gaddafi's daughter. However, the missiles passed over the island, landing in the sea, and caused no damage.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lampedusa

hmmm · 18-03-2011 3:54pm

Gadaffi may have announced a ceasefire for worldwide media consumption, but his forces are still attacking. Misrata is under siege and being shelled as are towns in the South. Ajdabia is under siege.

There were reports that 2 FROGs were seen on the road to Misrata this morning.

There are two things I see as interesting
1. Will the UN forces help to break sieges? Misrata will fall because it has no water or power, simply if Gadaffi maintains the siege
2. Gadaffi was fitting rockets on civilian ships and using them to bombard coastal towns - will the UN forces be willing to sink what are ostensibly civilian ships if needs be?

maquiladora · 18-03-2011 3:56pm

Al Jazeera reporter in Tripoli is hearing substantial loud explosions west of Tripoli.

Cameron's Plan For No-Fly Zone Over Libya

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