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Monday onward, frost, ice returns - snow later
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06-02-2010 2:14am#1
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Looks like that extra salt will come in handy. Our weather will increasingly come from the East through the early days of next week, then it is likely a Northeasterly will set in and then a Northerly. So the best of three different worlds. Turning increasingly cold and later in the week snow is likely especially in Eastern parts but this is likely to transfer to more Northern areas by the weekend. The models agree on a gradual retrogression of High Pressure into Greenland. There is also a risk of more substantial snow in the Southern half of the country at some stage through the week as the Atlantic energy may put up a fight. But that is just a risk.
Discuss the prospects....
Are we officially in ramp mode???? Didn't honestly think we would see another cold spell of note this winter but it looks like next week it will happen. Bring it on i say
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met.ie morning update:
"OUTLOOK FOR THE WHOLE COUNTRY: (as opposed to what??
)
The outlook is for cold weather with predominately easterly winds. Most places will have a good deal of dry bright weather, but frosty nights with icy patches and also some fog at times.
SUNDAY NIGHT: There will be a fresh East to southeast breeze across Munster on Sunday night, keeping frost to a minimum and where there may be some cloudy wet weather in places also. Dry and clear with somewhat slacker winds elsewhere with some frost.
MONDAY: Still probably cloudy in some parts of the south and west on Monday with some rain at times mainly near coasts but even these areas will be dry much of the time and the fresh easterly winds will fall off light. Largely dry and bright for the rest of the country, with some sunny periods, but cold and there may be some light wintry showers near the east coast. Sub zero temperatures with hard frost Monday night with some fog possibly also.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY:Cold bright and mainly dry days with sunny spells and afternoon temperatures of just 3 to 6 degrees, some light wintry showers are possible on exposed eastern and northern coasts. Very cold at night , with sub zero temperatures and as low as -5 or -6 degrees in places with very severe frosts and icy conditions with some freezing fog possible in places also."
http://www.met.ie/forecasts/
Meanwhile, on this morning's ECM, looks pretty much as expected over the next 6 or 7 days. Slack & anticyclonic:
Nothing to get me excited at least.
The best charts reserved in the far out stages as usual. This is what I want to see:
Ridge from main anticyclone over Iceland extending into central/east Europe, cutting off cool maritime Arctic air and ensure a more deeply continental feed. Temps may not be all that spectacular, but if that chart was to verify, humidity levels would drop off significantly and it would be very very dry. Oddly, there has been very little rain here in the west all winter, yet the roads have been constantly wet and mank (when they were not frozen). A dry continental is what is needed. Some beautiful colour's in the sky as well should the above chart come to pass.
Please, please let it be so.
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nothing on the charts getting me to excited
now way out in FI,next saterday on,did you see the charts :eek:
would be lovely but way out as i said,seems to be the norm this winter,it always seems to be a week away
anyway just to wet our appetite even further....
all the way out to tuesday :eek:
sure what do i no,but im a dreamer 0 -
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Good morning everyone
General Outlook
We have seen some Exceptionally consistent overnight Multi-Model Guidance with excellent Medium Term agreement - something not seen in quite some time. At the moment, it appears that ECMWF is leading the way on the general evolution, but a blend of ECMWF/UKMO/GFS/UKMO is likely into the Medium Term.
It should be noted that from T+132 - T+144 onwards now, quite exceptional Northern Blocking is indicated. The tend at the moment appears to be to take the main core of blocking even further North with each and every evolution.
Winds eminate from an Easterly/Northeasterly direction throughout. For the coming week as a whole, conditions are likely to remain cold to very cold at times, with signs of even deeper cold arriving towards Day 5/6.
While there will be a risk a light sleet & snow flurries/showers in Eastern areas during later on Monday & Tuesday, the pattern will generally be Anticyclonic Easterly, with limited snowfall potential in general.
During the midweek period, conditions may become somewhat even more slack, but with winds still generally Northeasterly, as the main core of blocking becomes situated to the immediate North. In addition, at this point, even more extensive Northward Warm Air Advection is indicated, setting up a prolonged blocking pattern all across the variable North.
Towards Friday onwards, there are some continuing indications that a more cyclonic Easterly pattern may well become established, with an enhanced threat of snow showers in Eastern areas in particular. Rather more deep cold is advected across the country at this point also, with main blocking centres over Scandinavia and Iceland.
Day 7 - Day 10
NWP Guidance also remains very consistent for this period, with a marked signal for extreme Northern Blocking to develop & a solid retrogression phase of the main blocking centres towards Greenland. As a result, an even more unstable Northeasterly to Easterly flow becomes established across the UK & Ireland, with an enhanced threat of snowfall once again. Conditions remain very cold throughout with a deep continental sourced airflow.
In addition to the recent warming event at the 30mb level, a renewed phase of warming is now taking place, which provides even further support for potential Northern Blocking towads Day 10 - Day 15:
30mb Temperatre Trend
Between Day 10 & Day 15, we are likely to see a more West Based -NAO evolution become established, with the main core of blocking transferring into Western Greenland & the Canadian Arctic. This also allows for a more cyclonic cold pattern to become established & is something to monitor over the next several days.
Summary
In summary then, there are solid indications of a cold spell lasting through to Day 5 at least this morning. There is the risk of light wintry showers in Eastern areas on Monday & Tuesday, but nothing significant is expected at present. The midweek period will see conditions falling even slacker, with light Northeasterly to Easterly winds & further overnight sharp to severe frosts. Towards Day 5/6 onwards, a somewhat more cyclonic Easterly/Northeasterly pattern is indicated, with exceptional Northern Blocking throughout, as indicated by the 6-10 Day CPC 500mb Height Anomoly Chart:
CPC 500mb Height Anomoly - Through to Day 10
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610day.03.gif
SA 0 -
Mark, can I just say that your analysis continues to be just fantastic. Very scientific and rooted firmly in objectivity and logic, yet at the same time, easy to absorb and enjoyable when read.
Your calm confidence, often set against childish hysteria and tantrums (often from myself) is just a pleasure to injest intellectually. Nice one! 0 -
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Hello folks,
After the disappointment of the non-cold spell last week, it looks like something from the east might be finally brewing up.
I would not be too versed in how to read the met charts you guys post here (although they look very pretty!), however my confidence has increased this morning having read our fellow poster MT Cranium's forecast for the week ahead.
I found his posts to be very accurate during the recent freezing weather and in general his forecasts are quite on the money.
Here is what MT has to say about weather later in the week:
TUESDAY to THURSDAY, Ireland will remain in this "transitional" cold air mass near a ridge of high pressure, and this will result in cold but not exceptional temperatures near -3 C overnight and near +4 C in the daytimes, with variable skies, some sunshine and some cloudy periods. There could be local snow flurries in parts of Ulster and the Dublin and Wicklow coastal areas, as winds will generally be NE 10-25 mph.
FRIDAY and next weekend, the colder air from further east will finally be released and flow out over Ireland to bring even colder weather and some risk of accumulating snows.
I would say the coming week to ten days might be interesting
Derek0 -
Deep Easterly wrote: »Mark, can I just say that your analysis continues to be just fantastic. Very scientific and rooted firmly in objectivity and logic, yet at the same time, easy to absorb and enjoyable when read.
Your calm confidence, often set against childish hysteria and tantrums (often from myself) is just a pleasure to injest intellectually. Nice one!
very well put paddy1. Also given he is emotionally invested in the outcome it's all the more impressive the way he can remain calm and objective. Quite a contrast to what you see over on netweather;)0 -
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Yep signals are definately on for a strong retrogression.
Then allowing cyclonic systems to approach from our south west that could cause blizzard conditions if angle of attack was correct and we were still in a very cold airmass.
Very far away but could be interesting to see if it materialises to give a last hurrah of extensive snowfall to end our winter.The end.:D
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Thanks for all the comments everyone
It's very difficult not to get over-excited when looking at some of the charts on display, but it's always best to downplay any potential until being at least moderately confident - Greater than 60% confidence in the risk of an event.
Another very solid GFS 12Z Operational evolution, which has 850mb temperatures of -8 across many parts from later on Monday and during Tuesday - with the threat of some light sleet or snow showers moving in off the Irish Sea.
It's also noteworthy that towards Day 5, a deep cold pool is advected across the country, with 850mb temperatures of -9 to -11 moving in from the East. With pressure falling slightly, such developments would offer more potential for snow showers into Eastern areas, which fits in with threat of a slightly more cyclonic Easterly pattern developing later in the week.
However it must be stressed that this is currently at Day 5.
Overall however, a solid, increasingly cold spell lasting for a minimum of 6 Days is indicated on this latest evolution, with an increasing threat of snow showers towards Day 5, especially in the East.
Rather extensive Northern Blocking is also in evidence between Day 5 & Day 6.
SA 0 -
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Again we look to be several hundred miles too far west for anything to happen in the first half of the week. Anticyclone bang right over us, so even with the cold lower levels, upper level capping will limit or totally stamp out any precipitive convection up to Wednesday.
Not so for the North Sea though, as conditions look ripe for a polar low (there he goes again with his Polar Lows!! :rolleyes: ), with a cold pool of -40°C H500 moving southwards from Norway late Tuesday. Polar Low or not, eastern parts of Britain look set for some real disruption again, with some major showers looking definite.
I like this next chart for Thursday though , with the upper levels finally destabilising enough for some decent convection to develop over the Irish Sea.
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Something is definitely going down with the weather... I was up all night last night and there were birds singing and making strange noises throughout the night, very strange... they were also acting crazy all day today.
After noticing the bizarre animal behaviour last night, and just coming here reading this, I'm beginning to wonder if there is actually something in this animal forecast model, that Donegal Postman could be on to something, there appears to be a definite correlation.
Bring on the snow! 0 -
Excellent as usual, any ideas of how long this cold spell will last?Snowaddict wrote: »Thanks for all the comments everyone
It's very difficult not to get over-excited when looking at some of the charts on display, but it's always best to downplay any potential until being at least moderately confident - Greater than 60% confidence in the risk of an event.
Another very solid GFS 12Z Operational evolution, which has 850mb temperatures of -8 across many parts from later on Monday and during Tuesday - with the threat of some light sleet or snow showers moving in off the Irish Sea.
It's also noteworthy that towards Day 5, a deep cold pool is advected across the country, with 850mb temperatures of -9 to -11 moving in from the East. With pressure falling slightly, such developments would offer more potential for snow showers into Eastern areas, which fits in with threat of a slightly more cyclonic Easterly pattern developing later in the week.
However it must be stressed that this is currently at Day 5.
Overall however, a solid, increasingly cold spell lasting for a minimum of 6 Days is indicated on this latest evolution, with an increasing threat of snow showers towards Day 5, especially in the East.
Rather extensive Northern Blocking is also in evidence between Day 5 & Day 6.
SA0 -
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Well it was v bad up here during the big freeze easterly.To_be_confirmed wrote: »I really can't see how donegal will experience much wintry weather from a not very cold continental easterly. The Met Office are making a safe call at least up to the beginning of Thursday.
Has the eastern being downgraded? I notice u said not very cold
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It's actually like an election thats too close to call.Well it was v bad up here during the big freeze easterly.
Has the eastern being downgraded? I notice u said not very cold
Next week will be colder.
That we are sure of-say daytime -with the ecm being least wintry to the end of the week.
4's and 5's max or a little lower.
Pressure will be high initially limiting precip to coastal drizzle or sleety flurries.
Current indications vary Towards the weekend,most including ecm make it colder and more wintry with more precip that if it verified would by then be mostly snow.
Thats the question,will it verify as the end of the week is definitely fi,the models are so flakey lately and also,the block is in fairness weak but trending stronger,it's just whether they will verify.
Most guidance says they probably will.
So it's not a good call at this stage to discount easterly winds especially a few days in to them as being "not so cold".
Also bear in mind that areas not in line for irish sea convection if and when the colder cold arrives later next week are usually areas best placed or at least first placed to feel the wintry mix of any attempted atlantic incursion up against the easterly.0 -
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snow ghost wrote: »Something is definitely going down with the weather... I was up all night last night and there were birds singing and making strange noises throughout the night, very strange... they were also acting crazy all day today.
After noticing the bizarre animal behaviour last night, and just coming here reading this, I'm beginning to wonder if there is actually something in this animal forecast model, that Donegal Postman could be on to something, there appears to be a definite correlation.
Bring on the snow!
Birds singing at 4am this morning, never heard anything like it, especially while dawn is still 4hrs away! Its either the weather or the birds were out on the lash last night and were just getting all loved up!!!!!!!0 -
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Good Morning everyone
General Outlook
There is now quite importantly strong consensus for the deep upper cold pool to our immediate East to back westwards through Day 5, signalling a retrogression phase. It is worth noting also that ECMWF 12Z Yesterday was over-progressive with the entire pattern, as indicated on the much better defined and consistent ECMWF 00Z Operational output this morning.
From Day 1 (Monday) - Day 5, an Anticyclonic Northeasterly/Easterly influence is likely, with very hard frosts and fog developing widely at night time, along with rather cold days. There is the outside risk of some light sleet or possibly snow flurries/showers in Eastern areas at times, but conditions will generally remain dry throughout.
ECMWF 00Z T+96 - Day 4
As mentioned above, there is general consensus on the overnight ECMWF/UKMO & GFS Guidance for the upper cold pool to back westwards, with winds turnning into a more Easterly direction once more at T+120. With deeper cold being advected Westwards and pressure falling to an extent, the threat of sleet or even snow showers increases towards Day 5 onwards. Rather widespread High Latitude Blocking is now indicated at Day 5, with further Warm Air Advection progressing Northwestwards into Greenland, facilitating further Medium - Long Term Height Rises.
ECMWF 00Z T+120 - Day 5
Medium Term
Beyond Day 5, ECMWF & other Multi-Model Guidance is very keen to indicate a long term cold pattern, with multiple High Pressure centres all across the variable North. Winds generally eminate from the East/Northeast throughout.
ECMWF 00Z T+144 - Day 6
Towards Day 7, Retrogression of the main core of positive Height anomolies has taken place, now centred firmly towards Greenland. Easterly/Northeasterly winds persist across the country.
ECMWF 00Z T+168 - Day 7
After the retrogression phase to Greenland has taken place, it is increasingly likely that a very cold but much more cyclonic pattern will then develop. Areas of low pressure may well approach from the Southwest, along with the potential for a renewed Northerly/Northeasterly incursion.
Summary
In summary then, a prolonged and quite likely increasingly cold spell is indicated on overnight NWP Guidance. Northern Blocking is likely to become the dominant feature driving our overall Weather Pattern through to Day 10. From Day 5 onwards in particular, it does appear that the threat of sleet/snow showers will begin to increase, as the Upper Cold pool from the continent backs Westwards. Overnight frosts, sharp to severe are likely, with fog persisting in some areas throughout the day.
This pattern, out to Day 10 & possibly beyond is indicated very well on the latest CPC 10/14 Day 500mb Height anomoly chart, with a mean, increasingly unsettled, Northeasterly to Easterly airflow:
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814day.03.gif
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Indeed Mark. The ECMWF freebie today suggests (unfortunately :pac:) that the possible cold snap next week will remain polar maritime sourced rather than continental:
216hrs Chart: (500's/850's)
Cold never-the-less, with always the risk of wintry type shower near coasts, but probably remaining mediocre further inland unless a sharp trough develops.
I ask however, what does it take to get a polar continental these days? they just don't seem to happen anymore. Same in summer, true continental feeds just can't seem to get going the way they used too. The last half decent one was in May 2008. Only very brief encounter's since. 0 -
Deep Easterly wrote: »I ask however, what does it take to get a polar continental these days? they just don't seem to happen anymore. Same in summer, true continental feeds just can't seem to get going the way they used too. The last half decent one was in May 2008. Only very brief encounter's since.
We need to move the island ... not to the south pacific though :pac:
As for the models...the Katy perry rule applies more than ever I'm afraid...
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Deleted User wrote: »We need to move the island ... not to the south pacific though :pac:
As for the models...the Katy perry rule applies more than ever I'm afraid...
Ha ha! "the Katy Perry rule" Sounds good to me! Great tune by the way. Annoyingly catchy. :pac: 0 -
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Yes but at that stage ,you have to factor in cold surface air advection towards Ireland from the East.To_be_confirmed wrote: »The coldest air seems to be over Ireland by Friday going on the ECM and GFS charts. But because the cold air pool is not massive and is being "dragged" away from the continent. Small enough changes in how the situation develops would have big enough consequences for us, so I'm definitely not going to call that until Tuesday at the earliest:eek:
Theres lots of that and while the really cold uppers are transitory,if you have sub or close to zero air moving from 0 to 1000ft-you can let 850 temps rise to -6 or -7c and still have snow even at the coast.
You mightn't have the normal super cold over warm sea convection but as the flow is to go more cyclonic,you will have more instability due to that.
Thats what we need to see happening after next weekend.
Surface air takes longer to travel here than the uppers and it's also more easily modified so we do need it to snow in Britain to disable the modification.
Colder sst due to the january cold spell will help.
Heres a good indication of how cold Europe is at surface level at the moment,the 0c isotherm is at sea level currently as far as Holland which at worst means the athmosphere is such that air temps won't go above freezing there.
In reality with snow cover etc,they are well below zero at times.
Thats the surface air we need and should be advecting in by next weekend as the easterly/NE persists
~Thats assuming everything goes to plan...
I'm off now to watch the country tracks forecast which I've recorded,I'll comment on it in a bit.
Expect a bad Gerry Murphy one by the way with the usual Wintry showers mentioned towards the end of the week.
It will be exclusively ecm as usual.
I hope they are the same type of wintry showers that they had on the farming forecasts in early january... as we all know snow was what came.0 -
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