FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

nacho libre wrote: »

The model ouput for the second week of March may change in a few days once the Strat Polar Vortex moves from Canada over to North East Asia. We may see them playing around with heights moving to the north west, but we would need something exceptional at that stage to keep snow on the ground during the day.

Do u think theres cold weather coming

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I think the sun being hot compensates for cool breezes. Was fairly refreshing last May actually.

The love for “humid thundery” summers I don’t get. I like heat but I’d be happy to leave a humid thundery 25c Ireland for 30+ central Spain.

I hear ye but sometimes you just can’t beat those humid evenings you can sit outside for much longer into the night rather than the clear skies were temperatures drop much quicker and you have to come indoors after 10pm.

AuntySnow wrote: »

Not forgetting a glass of chateau neuf du pap or four

Duuuuuh

Gonzo wrote: »

I don't think anyone expected the PV to make such a swift recovery after all the battering it took through the winter but it's back as well formed as it was this day last winter.

Not entirely unexpected. Usually what has happened with SSW events in years past is the major warming occurs and then we either see it non-propagate (nSSW) or propagate (dSSW). The warming cannot go on forever and leaves room for the polar vortex to reform, depending on the point in the season that the major warming has occurred. In this case, the major warming happened in early January just like in 2013 and 2019 - 2013 was a dSSW whilst 2019 was a nSSW but both ended in the stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) reforming at top levels with later than normal final stratospheric warming (FSW) events before the SPV goes into summer hibernation which is typical behaviour of winters with major SSW events and 2020-21 is likely to be no different though of course we never know until it happens. In the case of 2013, despite the stratospheric polar vortex having been reformed, we had an exceptionally blocked troposphere with March 2013 providing some of the deepest -AO/-NAO synoptics observed that only December 2010 of modern times competes with. The 2012-13 FSW did not happen until May 4th which is more than 15 days later than the central date (mean day the reversal happens) of April 15th. In the case of 2019, we saw downward propagation of a strong vortex event that developed during February, unlike the January major SSW event. This would result in an extraordinarily mild February and then a very wet first half to March dominated by westerlies. The 2018-19 FSW did not happen until April 23rd which wasn't quite as late as 2013 but still later than the central date nevertheless.

In fact, it's quite remarkable just how much battering the SPV has taken this winter without fully recovering for so long in the heart of winter. It's the same with the tropospheric polar vortex (TPV) with the Arctic Oscillation near record breaking-ly negative for the winter season. As has been touted already, we've just been incredibly unlucky (or lucky if you hate the cold because important to remember not everybody likes it) that the blocking just never set up quite right to bring in severe cold air from the north or the east. A lot of the time the jet stream has been southerly tracking but we were on the boundary of the cold getting into Scotland where there has been little mild weather since Christmas and the mild air coming up from the south. It has been a very wet winter for England & Wales, comparable to last year's washout. The same is true for some places in this country.

I've gone off on a waffle again good Lord! How some of you read these long and boring posts sometimes is beyond me though it is appreciated ! I don't want to jinx it but... here's to hopefully that long awaited settled period to end February and start of March at last.

highdef wrote: »

Couldn't agree more. With few if any of us having summer holidays this year, I for one will welcome warm balmy nights!

ill never forget late early July in 2016 one evening midweek myself and a girl i was seeing went for a walk to a local beauty spot and sat out along the Boyne til after 10pm just listening to river ,chatting and a bit of ther antics, it was unreal the heat and humidity at 10pm and still bright, just one of those moments in time , you think "jesus life is class in this country" . in the car going home at 10:45 it was 21 celcius.

[Deleted User] wrote: »

What you want is hot non humid days, humid evenings and cool nights.

That’s the dream.

Depends on your preferences. I would love hot days (humid or not humid, I don't mind), warm humid evenings and warm nights. Basically warm or hot all the time. If I fancya cooler bedroom, I'll switch on the air conditioner.

Deleted User wrote: »

Bit rough on the vast majority who don’t have air conditioning.

Which id have thought was 99% of the island :pac:

Gonzo wrote: »

Last summer was a disgrace, particularly in the Dublin/Meath/Kildare areas which missed out on just about every bit of warmth that was going throughout the summer from early June to the final day of August, the lack of sunshine was the worst aspect of last summer.

Not expecting this summer to be anything wonderful but surely we should do a bit better than last year in terms of sunshine at least. Hopefully no northern blocking either with lows diving north-east to south-west across Ireland. Even one week of warm sunshine and dry weather would be something. Getting fed up of England enjoying several weeks of continental warmth over the past two summers with Ireland left out with the cool atlantic continuing to feed in misty cloud and rain throughout most summers.

Its was the dullest summer ever at Dublin Airport - summers like that make the following winter seem even longer than normal:(

JCX BXC wrote: »

Ah, it's just one chart. Nothing written in stone yet.

Yes , dry settled and frosty back on the cards already. With the potential for something a little more interesting in FI.

Larbre34 wrote: »

Hows this working out?

A bit early to tell?

Not saying I agree with the OP though.

What I wouldn't give for some of that short-lived Greek, Syrian, Jordanian and Saudi Arabian Snow.

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Both the 12z ECM and 18z GFS aren't far away from an easterly by 6 March (ECM only goes to 4 March but shows promise and GFS easterly is a near miss - but still...)

Greece gets the easterly on the 0Z. I'm sure it'll be back towards us on the 6z. Or completely gone altogether

Height roses from the start of March looks to be locked in at least, after that who knows where she goes. Pin a tail on the donkey until we get closer.

The vortex moving to the arctic could allow heights to rise towards the north or northwest after the initial settled spell , so perhaps a north westerly or brief northerly airflow into the second week of March. A GFS run yesterday ended with a northerly.