Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

Tuesday, 15 October, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 15 to 21 October, 2019

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg below normal values (which are highs of 14 and lows of 5).
-- Rainfall will average about 25% above normal but much of that could fall later today, tonight, and again on Thursday into Friday morning.
-- Sunshine will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal values.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be overcast with mist or fog in places, and drizzle in some central counties. Winds will gradually increase to southeast 40-60 km/hr by afternoon with stronger gusts near south coast. Rain will spread into west Munster and then Connacht around mid-day and will advance slowly eastward. Highs 12-14 C.

TONIGHT will be wet and windy with the rain gradually reaching the east coast, ending there after sunrise, with total amounts of 15-30 mm for most regions. Winds will ease somewhat during the night. Lows 6 to 8 C.

WEDNESDAY will become brighter with passing showers in a moderate, occasionally brisk westerly wind backing to southwest later. There will be some thunder and hail in a few spots and 3-5 mm additional rainfalls. Cool with highs only 11 to 13 C.

THURSDAY will be partly cloudy to start, then overcast later with rain developing in strong southerly winds, 50 to 80 km/hr. Highs 11-14 C. About 10-20 mm rain likely (extending through the overnight to Friday morning).

FRIDAY will see the rain more confined to the east, and southwest gales near coasts will veer to westerly around mid-day. It will remain rather chilly with lows near 7 C and highs near 13 C. Winds becoming west to northwest 40 to 60 km/hr.

SATURDAY will be windy and rather cold with passing showers and some risk of hail accumulations especially on higher terrain. Lows 2-5 C and highs 8-11 C. Winds northwest 50 to 70 km/hr.

SUNDAY will bring some slow improvements with less cloud and shower activity, but it will remain chilly in a moderate northwest wind, lows about 1 to 4 C and highs 8 to 12 C.

MONDAY could be a bit more pleasant for a time with some sunny intervals and southwest winds bringing temperatures up slightly to 14 C.

The OUTLOOK calls for another frontal band of rain around Tuesday but after that there may be a slight change to more settled but chilly weather, as higher pressure builds in. The end of the month could turn considerably colder for a time.

My winter outlook is available, the summary would be rather wet and mild in the south, with increased chances for colder conditions and snow or ice at times further north due to a likely "battleground" scenario where Atlantic storms clash with higher pressure taking up frequent residence in Scandinavia this winter. I think this may mean a harsh winter in some parts of central Europe and perhaps even northern Britain, with Ulster and some other northern counties possibly on the colder side of the dividing line at times. But further south, the main theme may be stormy with wind and rain from Atlantic frontal systems. This is a preliminary outlook and I am going to issue a more detailed outlook in November once we can see how things are setting up for the early part of the winter.

My local weather on a holiday Monday here was sunny and pleasant with highs about 12-14 C.

Thursday, 17 October, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 17 to 23 October, 2019

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 degrees below normal values.
-- Rainfall will average near normal values (most of that will fall today and tomorrow though, so a wet start).
-- Sunshine will average about 25% above normal thanks to generous amounts from Sunday to Tuesday.

FORECASTS

TODAY will start out reasonably bright in the east with a few sunny breaks, isolated showers and moderate southerly winds. Further west it will be more cloudy and bands of heavier showers, some with thunder, will gradually move further into the central counties. Some intervals of stronger gusty southwest winds may develop (50-80 km/hr) although it doesn't look like these winds will be a constant feature. Highs will reach about 14 C.

TONIGHT will bring further outbreaks of rain, with accumulations from today added in approaching 20-25 mm in places, but it will stay fairly mild at 7-8 C. The strong southwest wind gusts will become more confined to the southeast coastal regions as slack pressure gradients move into western regions with the centre of low pressure moving in.

FRIDAY will see that low pressure drifting further east, as it does so, rain will ease off to showers from west to east, and winds will gradually turn more westerly. About 5-10 mm further rainfall can be expected in occasional showers. Highs will be 12 to 14 C.

SATURDAY will become quite chilly with a brisk northerly wind of 50-70 km/hr, especially over the eastern coasts and any parts of Connacht and Ulster exposed to the Atlantic. Some inland counties may not feel as windy but even so, temperatures will be held down to around 10 or 11 C in most areas, with bands of squally showers likely to form in the flow off the Atlantic. Some streamers of hail showers may develop and make contact with the east coast at least south of Dublin as winds may become a bit more northeasterly at times. A few sunny intervals will be in the mix too, for west Munster in particular. Morning lows 3 to 5 C and afternoon highs 10 to 13 C.

SUNDAY will continue the same theme with a reduction in the wind speeds and therefore less shower development, although a few are still expected. Partly cloudy skies will prevail, and temperatures will continue cool, lows 2 to 5 C and highs 10 to 13 C.

MONDAY could have some frosts to start, and it will be a bright and mainly dry day with just light northerly breezes backing to westerly over the northern and western counties by afternoon. Lows -2 to +3 C and highs 9 to 13 C.

TUESDAY a weak front will be approaching the northwest coasts and it will become mostly cloudy in Connacht and Ulster while remaining partly cloudy to sunny at times in Munster and Leinster. A moderate southwest breeze will develop after a relatively calm start to the day with more frosts expected but mainly confined to the inland south. Lows -1 to +4 C and highs 10 to 14 C.

The OUTLOOK calls for a few days of mostly cloudy but milder weather in southwest breezes, highs around 15 C. Weather models have been struggling to resolve what might be happening past mid-week (23rd or 24th), the European model was showing some intense storm development by end of the week (in its earlier runs today) but I just saw that it has backed off that idea and is now more in line with other guidance showing another episode of rain followed by colder weather. That intense storm concept may come back into the forecast though, since changes at that time frame can go back and forth for a few consecutive model runs then fix on one solution.

My local weather on Wednesday remained overcast and rather mild with a few spots of light rain at times, probably no more than 1 mm and the freezing level here has moved back up to near mountain summit levels with temperatures at my elevation being around 15 C.

Saturday, 19 October, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 19 to 25 October, 2019

-- Temperatures will average about 0.5 deg below normal values but will be cooler than that in the first half of the interval, rising to somewhat above normal by about Wednesday.
-- Rainfall will average near normal values but a lot of that is based on a rather speculative outcome next Friday when a substantial rainfall could occur. Until then it should be relatively dry overall with localized heavy showers near east coast and in parts of the northwest.
-- Sunshine will average about 25% above normal which does not take much effort at this rather cloudy stage of the year when 2-3 hours a day is normal.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be rather chilly with brisk northerly winds setting in, probably before mid-day in most areas. There will be a patchwork of clear and cloudy sky conditions but bands of showers will form and those may be more persistent near the southeast coast and over north Connacht and down the west coast to Kerry. Northerly winds of 50 to 70 km/hr will be driving those showers inland or along parallel coasts. Further inland the wind may not be quite as blustery. Highs only 11 to 13 C.

TONIGHT will see a few remnant showers as the bands weaken, while any inland locations having clear skies for a while could see patchy ground frost developing, with lows generally about 1 to 4 C. Rather strong north to northeast winds will still be felt near the east coast and some other exposed coastal areas, but inland it should become much less breezy.

SUNDAY will also be quite breezy during the daytime with a mixture of cloud and sunshine, chilly north winds of 40 to 60 km/hr, and a few isolated shower bands that could produce hail in a few places. Highs only 9 to 12 C.

MONDAY will start out with a frost in some inland districts and ground fog or mist is likely, then the sun should clear that away and yield a fine day with light winds, but quite chilly in the shade. Lows will be -2 to +3 C and highs 10 to 13 C.

TUESDAY will still be clear enough in the south and east for localized frost and fog inland, but cloud further west and north will keep the overnight temperatures milder. The day will see increasing cloud in all areas. Lows -1 to +4 C and highs 11 to 15 C.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY are currently looking rather mild, generally dry in the south and east, with some light rain at times in the west and north, in moderate south to southwest winds. Lows will be 6 to 9 C and highs about 14 to 17 C.

There are some indications that the mid-week mild spell will break down on Friday with heavy rainfalls from the south. This is an evolving situation and it could change considerably. The general trend in guidance is for colder weather to set in after that event, although there are different ideas about from which direction the cold might approach, northwest to northeast being possible options.

Tropical Storm Nestor did actually form earlier on Friday and will make a landfall later today in Florida, thankfully not a huge event like last year's major hurricane Michael.

My local weather on Friday was overcast with glimpses of sun and passing light rain showers, with a rather mild high of 12 C (at this altitude, probably closer to 16 C in the valleys).

Monday, 21 October, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 21 to 27 October, 2019

-- Temperatures will average near normal values, starting from about 2 or 3 below average at first, and ending up that much above by Thursday, with further variations to come.
-- Rainfalls may amount to near normal after Friday's expected rainfalls. There could also be more by Sunday.
-- Sunshine will probably manage to outperform normal this week and could end up 50% above average in some places.


FORECASTS

TODAY will have some patchy frost and fog or mist especially in low-lying areas near lakes and rivers (which are now much warmer than the cold air), drive with caution in these areas. Most of coastal and urban sections of the country will be too mild for frost and eventually all areas will recover to about 10 degrees under a bright sky with some patchy higher cloud layers. The afternoon highs will reach 12 to 14 C. It won't be windy today and some places will remain almost calm.

TONIGHT will bring a return of some frost and fog patches mainly in the inland south and southeast. Cloud spreading into the north and west will keep temperatures higher there. Lows -1 to +4 C in south and east, to about 7 C in parts of the north and west.

TUESDAY will be mostly cloudy but there could be some brighter intervals at times. Rain will be slowly approaching the west coast and some patchy drizzle will probably reach land but it will be nightfall before measurable rain begins in the west and north. Moderate southwest winds of 40 to 60 km/hr will set in.

WEDNESDAY will have some intervals of light rain, 5 to 10 mm on average, in a milder southwest wind of 50 to 70 km/hr. Lows will be about 7 to 10 C and highs 11 to 15 C.

THURSDAY will continue mostly cloudy and mild, with a little more rain although spotty in most cases, and south winds will not be overly strong, with highs possibly as high as 16 C.

FRIDAY will bring outbreaks of rain and some could be heavy across the south. The timing and exact track of this system remain imprecise with estimates between Friday mid-day and Saturday early morning for the peak of the impacts. About 15-25 mm of rain is possible. Winds may become rather strong from the east ahead of the low, and then swing around to strong westerly winds once it moves through from southwest to northeast. The stronger east winds might be mostly from Dublin to Clare north into Ulster. Highs on Friday will be around 13 C.

SATURDAY and SUNDAY are likely to turn somewhat colder again at least for most of Saturday and the first part of Sunday; milder air could make a return at some point with a second rainfall event rather speculatively timed for Sunday into Monday. These details are going to remain unresolved for a day or two yet. But it looks as though temperatures on the weekend will be around 10-13 C, with the stronger winds of the Friday system easing by Saturday morning, then perhaps resuming from the southeast ahead of the second system timed at present for Sunday. The weather pattern beyond the weekend looks unsettled with frequent fast-moving frontal systems promising a seasonal amount of rain and occasionally strong winds.

My local weather was foggy with light rain most of the day, and that turned to wet snow at sunset, with about 5 cms of slushy snow on the ground now, but it seems to have turned back to drizzle as a weak warm front is moving in. Expecting a rain-snow mix here for the next day or two before any improvements take place. Canada has a federal election going on today (Monday) so you would think there would be a lot of hot air around, but none in evidence. The high here on Sunday was probably about 4 C. Meanwhile, the remnant low of Nestor has moved through Virginia with a soaking rainfall and is now headed towards Bermuda.

Wednesday, 23 October, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 23 to 29 October, 2019

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 4 deg below normal, colder in the north.
-- Rainfalls will average near normal or slightly above in the south, to 50% of normal in the north (and may include some wintry mixtures).
-- Sunshine will average near normal values despite a rather cloudy start.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be mild with rain spreading east across the country, about 10-15 mm potential with this band. The morning may remain largely dry in Leinster before the rain arrives there. Southerly winds of about 40-60 km/hr will veer to westerly when the rain ends. Highs 13-15 C.

TONIGHT will turn considerably colder with a few sleety showers in the northwest, otherwise generally dry. Winds westerly 40 to 60 km/hr will add some chill to temperatures dropping to the 1 to 3 C range.

THURSDAY will see cloudy skies with some brighter intervals, and isolated sleety showers mainly in Ulster and north Connacht. Winds will become northwest before dying out towards the end of the day. Highs only 7 to 9 C.

FRIDAY will bring a cold and in places heavy rainfall across the south, with sleet or snow possible on hills and towards the northern fringes of the rainfall at lower elevations in the central counties. There could be 20-40 mm of rain near the south coast where winds could also be rather strong from the east to northeast at 50 to 70 km/hr. Those winds will be a little more moderate further north but also from the northeast, as low pressure tracks past the south coast into Wales and England. Some accumulations of wet snow are possible on higher terrain in the south and east, and mixed falls further north. High temperatures only 4 to 6 C and feeling very cold and raw.

SATURDAY will bring a partial clearance but continued quite cold with wintry showers possible on north and west facing slopes as winds turn west to northwest 40 to 60 km/hr. Lows near 2 C and highs near 7 C.

SUNDAY will probably remain dry but cold, however guidance begins to diverge into two outcomes for Monday, so that temperatures could be as low as 5-7 C or in the second scenario rising to around 10 C.

MONDAY and TUESDAY the guidance available splits into two concepts, one is a continued feed of colder air from the northeast, largely dry if somewhat cloudy. The other possible outcome is for another low to push north and spread rain across Ireland later in the day and into Tuesday. So we'll have to wait and see which of these proves more accurate, as temperatures would likely be quite a bit milder with the rain scenario in southeast winds. The colder camp of model guidance then wants to bring a second mixed wintry storm towards the southeast mid-week (that is absent from the milder guidance). All then agree that it turns colder again later towards the first of November.

My local weather on Tuesday was sunny with cloudy intervals and rather breezy, but with the sunshine warmer than previous days, and recent snow has retreated once again some distance up the local hills and out of the town for now. The strong winds and recent rain or snow have brought down a lot of leaves here in the past three days.

Friday, 25 October, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 25 to 31 October, 2019

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 4 degrees below normal, colder values in Ulster and the north midlands.
-- Rainfall will average 75 to 100 per cent of normal in the south, to only 25% or less in the north.
-- Sunshine will average near normal values but could be a bit above that in the north.

FORECASTS

TODAY will bring some cold rain to the south, with the risk of sleet or snow on higher ground, mainly towards summit levels of higher hills. There could be 15-30 mm of rain in a few locations but 5-15 mm will be more widespread. The rain will cut off around county Galway across to Meath, with dry but mostly cloudy conditions further north aside from a few isolated showers. Winds will be moderate northeast 40 to 60 km/hr in the south, to about 30 km/hr further north, adding some chill to highs only reaching 8 C on the south coast and 4-6 C elsewhere.

TONIGHT will see further outbreaks of rain and the snow line may come down in elevation towards morning, with rain mixing with wet snow just as the event is ending. No significant accumulation is expected except on some hills. Skies will remain partly cloudy to clear at times further north. Lows -1 to +3 C with some scattered ground frosts in north central counties.

SATURDAY will be rather windy and cold with a north wind at first backing to northwest and increasing to 50-70 km/hr. Some wintry showers may be produced over the Atlantic coming inland over Ulster and north Connacht, but most places will turn dry once the morning sleety rain is finished. Highs will only reach 5 to 8 C.

SUNDAY will be somewhat less chilly with slacker northeast winds and a bit of sunshine through mixed high cloud layers, morning lows -2 to +3 C with some frosts in central and inland northern counties, highs 8 to 10 C.

MONDAY will be partly cloudy and dry with morning lows -2 to +3 C and afternoon highs 8 to 11 C. Light to moderate east winds are expected and could be rather brisk near the Irish Sea coasts.

TUESDAY will be cloudy with a chance of some light rain in Kerry and Cork, but remaining dry in the rest of the country, lows near 2 C and highs near 10 C.

WEDNESDAY the rain could hang around in west Munster for a while before drifting away, and most other areas will remain cloudy but dry, with sunny breaks developing over the north. Lows near 2 C and highs 10 to 12 C.

THURSDAY looks mostly cloudy with stronger east to northeast winds developing, and isolated wintry showers in the north. Lows -2 to +3 C and highs 4 to 7 C (perhaps 7 to 10 C near south coast).

FRIDAY and the following weekend (2-3 Nov) appear likely to remain dry and cool with rain gradually approaching towards Monday 4th.

My local weather on Thursday was overcast with highs of about 8 C.

Sunday, 27 October, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 27 Oct to 2 Nov 2019

-- Temperatures will average near normal values, the first half of the interval will be quite cool and the second half equally mild.
-- Rainfall will average near normal, most of it will come on Wednesday and Thursday, dry in most places until then.
-- Sunshine will average near normal to 25% above normal in some parts of the north.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be sunny with a few cloudy intervals, and isolated showers in the north. It will continue rather cold with highs 8 to 11 C. Moderate north to northeast winds at times (40 to 60 km/hr).

TONIGHT will bring clear skies with a few clouds, and frost is likely in most rural areas. Lows -3 to +2 C.

MONDAY will be partly cloudy with moderate northeast winds at times, highs 9 to 12 C.

TUESDAY will be partly to mostly cloudy, and there could be some light rain by afternoon in west Munster. Lows -2 to +3 C and highs about 10 to 13 C.

WEDNESDAY will be overcast with rain moving in from the west, about 10 mm likely. Lows near 5 C and highs near 11 C.

THURSDAY will be overcast with rain and some fog, milder, lows near 7 C and highs near 13 C. About 10-20 mm rain likely.

FRIDAY will see some partial clearing and showers more isolated, lows near 6 C and highs near 12 C.

The following weekend will likely be overcast with occasional showers, and temperatures near average at 10-12 C.

My local weather on Saturday was partly sunny with a few showers (possibly flurries) visible in all directions but it stayed dry here, and the high was about 7 C.

Tuesday, 29 October, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 29 Oct to 4 Nov 2019

-- Temperatures will average near normal (at this time of year, highs near 12 and lows near 4).
-- Rainfall will average near normal to 25% above normal in parts of the south.
-- Sunshine will average only about half of normal, perhaps closer to normal in Ulster.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy across the south, and also into central counties at times, with some sunny breaks further north. Moderate east to northeast winds 50 to 70 km/hr in exposed areas, highs 9 to 11 C.

TONIGHT will be overcast with light rain spreading into parts of the south and southwest, lows 4 to 7 C.

WEDNESDAY will be overcast with occasional rain, highs near 12 C.

THURSDAY will be cloudy with a few breaks, but intervals of rain will become heavier at times by afternoon. Lows near 7 C and highs 11 to 14 C.

FRIDAY will be partly cloudy with passing showers, lows near 7 C and highs near 13 C.

The weekend outlook is unsettled with some intervals of strong winds and rain, but a complex weather pattern with lows swirling around the region will bring changeable conditions with some less windy periods if low pressure develops slack central features. Highs will be generally around 10 C.

The further outlook is cold and rather windy as a northeast flow develops, probably too mild for snow but a sleety rain at times especially in eastern regions more exposed to the onshore winds. Temperatures for much of next week will only be around 5 to 8 C.

My local weather turned quite cold with light snow at times, falling temperatures from near 5 C this morning to -2 C by evening. This looks like being a short duration cold spell here as the cold air settles further south into the central and western U.S. The pattern unfortunately is going to amplify the strong east winds blowing into California making it difficult for them to fight raging wildfires for a few more days. Also this set-up will produce a storm in the central plains states moving towards the Great Lakes region later in the week.

Thursday, 31 October, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 31 Oct to 6 Nov 2019

-- Temperatures will average near normal values, mild at first, then rather cold towards the end of this interval.
-- Rainfall will average about 80 to 110 per cent of normal values, more likely to be above average in the south than elsewhere.
-- Sunshine will be only half to two-thirds of the normal amount which itself is only about 3 hours a day.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with a few breaks in the overcast, showers at first will give way to longer intervals of rain and some heavier bursts across the south by afternoon and evening with 10-20 mm possible there (about 5 mm elsewhere). Milder than recent days with highs of about 14 to 16 C in some parts of the south, 12 to 14 C further north.

TONIGHT will be overcast with a few showers and moderate southwest winds, lows near 7 C.

FRIDAY will continue partly to mostly cloudy with showers and moderate southwest winds, highs 11 to 13 C.

SATURDAY will bring some intervals of strong westerly winds and squally showers, possibly some with thunder or hail. Temperatures will remain steady around 10-12 C in the south, 8-10 C in the north where it likely won't get too windy. The coasts of Clare and north Kerry as well as parts of the south coast could see gusts to 110 km/hr around mid-day, and inland about 80 km/hr through the midlands and southeast.

SUNDAY will bring a few intervals of rain but there will be a slow clearing trend for parts of the north and northwest where winds may begin to turn more to the northeast. Temperatures will range from near 10 C in the southeast and west Munster, to 8 C in central counties and 5 to 7 C in the north.

MONDAY and TUESDAY of next week will be colder days with some brighter intervals despite a fair amount of cloud, passing sleety showers near the east and north coasts, and northeast winds of 40 to 70 km/hr adding a chill to rather low daytime temperatures of 5 to 8 C. Nights will be frosty inland and lows will be -2 to +2 C.

By WEDNESDAY a weak front is expected to arrive from the Atlantic. It will not be bringing very much warmth along, and could therefore produce some wintry mixtures of precipitation in higher inland areas, with cold rain showers at sea level. Temperatures will remain about the same, 6 to 9 C the most likely range.

That system will be followed by somewhat milder westerly flow from the Atlantic, highs could reach about 9 or 10 C, before more cold air pushes down around the following weekend and into mid-November; at this point the guidance looks quite cold for much of next month although never quite into obvious snowfall potential, but it wouldn't take much of an upgrade to get to that end result.

My local weather on Wednesday remained clear and quite cold although the chill is slowly moderating as a weak westerly flow develops around the strong high pressure that brought this chill -- the high was about 5 C. It looks like a more normal interval of late autumn weather ahead here. Snow is falling in parts of the Midwest as low pressure now in southern Michigan moves northeast; that will be followed by very cold northwest winds and snow squalls off the Great Lakes by late today in western portions and through late Friday further east.

UPDATE _ ALERT for strong winds and possible coastal flooding Kerry-Cork-Waterford
___________________________________________________________________

Friday 1st November, 2019 _ 6:15 pm

Rapidly developing low pressure west of Clare will track southeast across parts of west Munster tonight, emerging into the Atlantic around Youghal-Dunvargan area. This will force very strong southerly winds to develop ahead of the low, with possible coastal flooding at high tide in parts of county Cork in particular. When the low approaches, southerly winds of 80 to 130 km/hr may develop and cause some minor damage. As the low passes, expect winds in the affected counties to veer rapidly to west-northwest 70 to 120 km/hr.

The zone with potential for very strong winds will be south of a line approximately Ennis to Limerick (city) to Kilkenny and north Wexford, and to the north of that some moderately strong southeast winds are likely at times, but wind damage should be mainly confined to Kerry, Cork and Waterford as well as parts of south Wexford.

Would recommend avoidance of any travel in these areas during the windstorm as there will also be squally rain and poor visibility in general so that debris on roads will not be easily seen. Strong cross-winds may develop on some routes. The duration of any windstorm conditions is likely to be 4-6 hours. Conditions will tend to improve steadily after sunrise tomorrow.

Sunday, 3 November, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 3 to 9 November, 2019

-- Temperatures will average about 1 deg below normal, which means an average daytime high near 10 C and lows near 4 C.
-- Rainfall will average near normal to 25% above normal in some parts of the south mainly.
-- Sunshine will get into the mix occasionally and reach about a normal value of 2.5 hours a day.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be misty or foggy at times this morning, then brighter by mid-day and afternoon in the north at least, with outbreaks of showery and mostly light rain in the south, with highs of 8 to 10 C.

TONIGHT will be overcast with occasional light rain in the south, to partly cloudy further north, with lows 3 to 6 C.

MONDAY will continue to have some rain in parts of the south, partly cloudy further north with isolated showers developing mainly from streamers developing over northern parts of the Irish Sea and the Atlantic north of Connacht. Winds will become northeast to northerly at about 40 to 60 km/hr. A bit colder with highs 7 to 9 C.

TUESDAY will be a partly sunny day with only isolated and brief showers near some coasts, morning frosts with lows -2 to +3 C, and afternoon highs 9 to 11 C.

WEDNESDAY will bring a more organized band of rainfall, 10 to 20 mm likely, with temperatures steady around 8 to 10 C.

THURSDAY will become brighter and rather cold with scattered showers, some wintry on higher terrain, and some with hail and thunder. Lows will be 1 to 4 C and highs 6 to 9 C.

FRIDAY will be partly cloudy and cold with morning frosts, lows -2 to +2 C and highs 6 to 9 C.

The outlook for next weekend is unsettled and windy with rain likely, temperatures a bit higher near 10 C. The following week looks rather cold but largely dry. Beyond that a stormy interval is being hinted at in some guidance (that would be about two weeks away).

My local weather on Saturday was partly cloudy and milder than recent days with highs reaching 10 C. Quite pleasant compared to the low cloud and rain that is frequently encountered in our climate in November (or snow). The snow line has retreated a bit to 1300 meters and snow in local mountains is a rather thin covering, most of it fell in late September and has been very slowly evaporating into dry air masses since then rather than melting.

Tuesday, 5 November, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 5 to 11 November 2019

-- Temperatures will average 0.5 to 1.5 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall will average 25 to 75 per cent above normal, heaviest in the southeast.
-- Sunshine will average near normal values.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be breezy at first with isolated showers, northerly winds 40-60 km/hr, then less breezy by afternoon with more widespread sunny intervals. Highs will be 7 to 10 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy although more overcast towards the west coast, and cold with some frost in a few spots in central, northern and eastern counties, lows -1 to +3 C.

WEDNESDAY will bring outbreaks of rain spreading gradually east, by midnight about 20-40 mm possible, with central and inland southern counties likely to see the higher values, and winds will become southeast 40-60 km/hr, with temperatures steady 8 to 10 C. Heavy rain will develop over higher parts of the southeast overnight into Thursday morning, with a flood risk for any rivers or streams in the region. As much as 60 mm could fall over west Wicklow and nearby parts of Kildare and Carlow with 40 mm in parts of south Dublin.

THURSDAY will see the rain tapering off to showers and some clearing by afternoon with winds backing to northeast 40-60 km/hr, rather cold with highs only 6 to 9 C. The heavier rain in the inland southeast will slowly diminish to showery falls. The flood risk would remain for some time after the heavy rain ends though.

FRIDAY will become partly cloudy and cold with isolated showers, possibly wintry on some higher ground. Lows -1 to +2 C with scattered frosts, and highs near 7 C.

SATURDAY will become overcast with rain developing later in the day, windy at times and potential for 15-25 mm rain, highs near 8 C.

SUNDAY is now looking quite cold and while some brighter intervals are likely, scattered heavy showers may form with locally heavy downpours, hail possible with those, highs near 7 C.

Next week will continue cold and unsettled with moderate east to northeast winds at times, some intervals of rain that might become sleety on higher ground, and some partly cloudy spells with more isolated showers created by streamers from the Irish Sea. Highs will generally be in the range of 6 to 9 C and overnight lows will be rather close to freezing, held up somewhat by cloud and the wind coming across still relatively warm waters.

My local weather on Monday was sunny and mild, so we took advantage and went for a day trip south of the border where it was even milder at about 15 C. We're expecting this to last one more day then colder air will clip us on the way past as a major cold wave develops over central regions headed for the east coast by the weekend. The winter appears to be coming early and fast for central and then eastern parts of North America.

Thursday, 7 November, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 7 to 13 November, 2019

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall will generally be close to normal but could exceed that by 25-50 per cent in a few places, notably the capital region and Mayo.
-- Sunshine will average near normal values.


FORECASTS

TODAY will become partly cloudy in most areas with just isolated passing showers, but there will be persistent rainfall in a band currently moving south through Leinster. This seems likely to come to a halt by later this morning in the Dublin-Kildare-north Wicklow region with the risk of some localized flooding as 20-30 mm could fall over some of these areas, notably south Dublin and north Wicklow. Elsewhere rainfalls of trace to 3 mm would be more widespread. Rather cold with highs 7 to 9 C. Winds moderate northwest over parts of Munster, and easterly in Ulster, rather light and variable between those regimes due to slack gradients around the centre of low pressure moving through.

TONIGHT will see partial clearing and fairly widespread frost with lows -2 to +3 C.

FRIDAY will become mostly cloudy around mid-day with some light rain developing in the west by late afternoon. Rather cold with highs around 7 or 8 C.

SATURDAY will start out blustery with rain during the early morning hours clearing east after sunrise, to leave a partly cloudy and breezy day with a few passing showers. About 10 mm of rain is expected in the first part of the day. Morning lows around 4 C and afternoon highs will be near 9 C.

SUNDAY will be generally dry until late in the day with increasing cloud after some morning frosts. There will be some scattered but isolated showers and some of those could be wintry on higher ground. Lows near -2 C and highs near 7 C.

MONDAY will see another fast-moving band of rain early in the day, followed by partial clearing. Cool with highs near 7 C.

Most of next week will be quite cold with wintry mixtures possible on higher ground by mid-week, a cold rain or hail showers at times closer to sea level, in moderate northwesterly winds much of the time. Towards the end of the week it could turn a few degrees milder briefly but then more cold weather is indicated beyond that brief respite. Except for that milder turn, highs will generally be 5 to 8 C. (perhaps 10-12 C for one or two days around Friday 15th).

My local weather did turn a bit colder as expected but it stayed clear after a few hours of low cloud with the frontal passage this morning, and the highs were closer to our normal temperatures at this time of year, 5 to 8 C. The more severe cold stayed further east and it looks like we will be edging back upward again until another cold front arrives on Friday night.

Saturday, 9 November, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 8 to 14 November, 2019

-- Temperatures will average 1.0 to 2.0 deg below normal, coldest around middle of next week.
-- Rainfall will average near normal values, or slightly below in some parts of the west and north.
-- Sunshine will average a little above normal, closer to 3 hours a day than the normal 2 to 2.5 hours.


FORECASTS

TODAY ... Becoming partly cloudy as rain gradually ends over parts of the Leinster coast, with a few more showers developing in moderate westerly winds 40 to 60 km/hr. Some showers could be briefly heavy with hail and thunder. Highs will be 7 to 10 C.

TONIGHT ... A few clear intervals, cold. Lows -1 to +3 C with scattered frosts.

SUNDAY will have variable cloudiness and a few isolated showers, moderate southwest winds becoming stronger by evening with another overnight rainfall expected before Monday morning, highs on Sunday around 10 C.

MONDAY will become quite breezy and colder with passing showers, highs near 8 C.

TUESDAY will be partly cloudy with passing showers, breezy and cold, highs near 7 C.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY are looking very cold and windy with intervals of rain followed by passing wintry showers, some accumulations of sleet possible on higher ground, and highs only 5 to 8 C with winds veering from westerly to northerly 50 to 70 km/hr adding further chill.

FRIDAY will remain cold but not as windy, sharp frosts are likely and highs still only 5 to 8 C.

The outlook calls for slightly milder conditions by the following weekend although only marginally (7 to 11 C) then with another rather strong front likely, colder again after that.

My local weather was overcast, reasonably mild and dry again (which is unusual) with a high of about 9 C.

Monday, 11 November, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 11 to 17 November 2019

-- Temperatures will continue 2 to 3 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall will be quite variable from one location to another as most systems will become banded which means large differences likely, the higher amounts (25 to 50 per cent above normal) are likely to be in central Leinster towards east Munster, while somewhat further north and west there could be perhaps half that much.
-- Sunshine will also be rather variable as persistent bands will be cloudy most of the time, so where rainfall is above normal sunshine will likely be quite low, while other places see perhaps 25% more than average for this time of year.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be blustery and cold with passing showers, more frequent in the west, but sometimes extending across the country into the east coast counties as well. Some showers will have hail and thunder. Coatings of hail or sleet may be encountered in some places especially over higher terrain. Winds west to northwest 50 to 80 km/hr except 80 to 110 km/hr in exposed Atlantic counties. Highs 5 to 8 C but feeling colder due to the wind.

TONIGHT will see a gradual reduction in both the wind and the coverage area of showers, but what is left over may become wintry in places. Lows -2 to +3 C with scattered frosts likely, some black ice conditions may develop by midnight over rural roads.

TUESDAY will become partly cloudy with more isolated showers more confined to east Ulster and north Leinster. Winds will continue to be northwest until afternoon when a light and variable regime develops briefly, but wind speeds will be down from today's blustery conditions. Highs 6 to 9 C.

WEDNESDAY will see bands of rain with some sleet especially over higher terrain, as low pressure slowly organizes to the west and moves into Munster. This will result in winds turning more to the east and northeast for most regions except the south coast. Some bands of rain will be heavy and persistent, but other places may be between bands and not picking up as much accumulating rain. Central Leinster to east Munster may be the favoured location for the heavier rain bands, with sleet or even snow developing over hilly terrain in that region. Further north and west there may be some areas with just partly cloudy conditions and infrequent showers, but another band of heavier rain may move through north and west Connacht. Winds will become east to northeast 40 to 60 km/hr. Cold and raw with morning lows 2 to 4 C and highs 5 to 7 C. Winds will become stronger overnight with some bands perhaps turning wintry at elevations above 250 metres.

THURSDAY will see the windy and unsettled conditions continuing with strong northeast winds backing further to northerly at times. Heavy bands of sea effect streamers are likely in Leinster with mixed forms of precipitation and some thunder and lightning. Snow accumulations are only likely on higher ground but melting snow or sleet could fall closer to sea level. Winds northeast to north 60 to 90 km/hr will add considerable chill to already low temperatures in the 4 to 7 C range.

FRIDAY will become less windy and more settled as bands become isolated and fragmented, although probably in similar locations to the previous two days. Some longer intervals of sunshine will develop. Slight frosts on Friday morning, with sharper and more severe frosts likely Friday night. Lows near -2 C and highs near 5 C.

SATURDAY will see increasing cloud and slightly moderating temperatures near 9 C as a weaker storm system develops and moves through with intervals of rain. Freezing levels will rise somewhat changing any sleet or snow back to rain, but then it will start to turn colder again for Saturday night as winds turn more northwesterly again.

SUNDAY is likely to be breezy and cold with passing showers, some wintry again. Highs only 5 to 7 C.

The outlook for next week calls for quite cold conditions to persist with a few more intervals of rain or sleet in mostly northeasterly winds as a storm track develops to the south of Ireland into France. It probably won't be cold enough for all-out wintry conditions but those may be encountered over higher terrain at times. Temperatures will remain marginal for wintry forms of precipitation in the 5 to 8 C range mostly, with slight frosts at night.

My local weather turned sunny again on Sunday after a very brief interval of light sleet or drizzle before sunrise. This made some of the local higher routes icy in the shade but otherwise it was a dry and relatively pleasant day with highs near 6 C. We got a good view of the rising full moon this evening. The almanac says the full phase occurs on Tuesday at 13:36 hours in your time zone (which is 0536h Tuesday here). We had an extra week of daylight saving time and changed to standard time last weekend here. The governments of western provinces and states want to abolish the time change and go to Pacific daylight saving time year-round (which means dark mornings but a bit of daylight to almost 5:00 p.m. at the winter solstice). I'm not sure if this is going ahead or not, they want to have all Pacific region jurisdictions doing this together to avoid confusion. I don't think it has become an issue anywhere else and I'm not really sure what led to this other than in our laid back part of the world changing the clocks seems to be a lot of work to some of our guiding lights.

Wednesday, 13 November, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 13 to 19 Nov 2019

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 3 deg below normal values (which at the present time would be around 11 C daytime and 4 C overnight).
-- Rainfall will average near normal values, possibly a bit above in south Leinster.
-- Sunshine will average near normal values to 25% above normal in parts of the south and west.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be overcast with outbreaks of light rain turning somewhat heavier in the afternoon, and temperatures steady or slowly falling in the range of 6 to 8 C. Higher elevations especially in south Leinster and parts of Connacht could see slushy accumulations of wet snow or sleet. Winds rather light and variable for most of the day, but becoming northeast 40 to 60 km/hr across the north late this afternoon, and northerly in parts of west Munster.

TONIGHT rain or sleet will continue and the northeast to north winds will spread over most other regions, adding a chill to temperatures around 2 or 3 C. Total rainfalls will reach 20-25 mm in some parts.

THURSDAY the rain will begin to concentrate into bands running northeast-southwest across parts of Leinster and north-west Connacht, west Ulster. Some other regions will become mostly dry with some sunny breaks developing. Winds will continue rather strong northeast to north at about 50 to 80 km/hr. Highs will only reach 5 to 7 C. Some of the precipitation will become mixed with thunder possible as well.

FRIDAY will become mostly sunny with the stronger winds abating especially by afternoon and evening. Showers will become more isolated although more likely to be wintry where they do occur. Morning lows about -1 to +2 C and afternoon highs 5 to 7 C. Friday evening will become frosty soon after dark and roads could become icy in some rural areas overnight.

SATURDAY will start out with a sharp frost and morning lows -5 to -2 C. Increasing higher cloud will dim the early sunshine then some sleety rain could develop in some western counties. Highs only 3 to 7 C.

SUNDAY will bring variable amounts of cloud and showers, some mixed on higher ground. Lows near 1 C and highs near 7 C.

The outlook for next week is unsettled with the risk of some rather persistent and heavy rainfalls developing. It may turn a few degrees milder and closer to seasonal averages.

My local weather brought a small covering of wet snow in the morning, perhaps 2-3 cm mixed with a bit of drizzle, and it was rather foggy with low cloud ceilings. Temperatures were about 2 or 3 C most of the day. The rain snow line dropped down to about 700 metres so lower parts of the local valleys had light rain instead of the snow. Meanwhile it has turned very cold in eastern Canada and the northeast U.S., Midwest states and plains states with some record low temperatures reported.

Friday, 15 November, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 14 to 20 November 2019

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 3 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall will average about half of normal amounts, although it may be fairly frequent in small amounts. Central counties could run as low as 25% of normal with some coastal fringes closer to normal, guidance shows several heavy falls over nearby ocean areas so any inaccuracy in that modelling could bring some of those heavier amounts onto land.
-- Sunshine will average near normal to as much as 50 per cent above normal values in some parts. Variations will be due to rather weak weather systems spreading patchy cloud across various portions of the country, no real trends appear.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy to sunny for most, with fairly generous amounts of sunshine and with lighter winds it may feel a bit warmer than yesterday although temperatures will be in a similar range with highs 6 to 9 C. A sharp frost is likely to develop by evening. A few streamers will continue to appear near both the southeast and northwest coastal fringes, if they extend on to land they will bring mixed forms of precipitation depending mostly on elevation, with hail and thunder being possible in any more robust showers, but this is likely to be isolated to just a few locations. The northerly winds will continue to moderate after some gusty intervals this morning and the wind directions will become more variable later in the day.

TONIGHT will feature some clear and frosty conditions, with locally icy road conditions possible especially where untreated in rural areas, and the frost will probably be rather slow to clear on Saturday morning, after lows of -5 to -1 C for most. Just a few coastal and urban areas may escape seeing any frost or sub-freezing air temperatures.

SATURDAY will bring cloudy skies into western counties after a sharp to severe frost in most areas of the country away from the southwest coast. It will remain partly cloudy further east. Some light rain is likely to spread into coastal areas of the west but is not expected to become too widespread. Highs 7 to 10 C.

SUNDAY will be mostly cloudy with outbreaks of light rain, some sleety accumulations again on higher terrain, lows 1 to 4 C and highs 7 to 9 near sea level and 4 to 6 C higher up.

NEXT WEEK in general looks unsettled with outbreaks of rain, the main thrust of the moisture is further east across the Irish Sea, western England and Wales, but any change to that could bring heavier amounts into some parts of Leinster and east Ulster. It will be slightly milder than the current regime but by no means a mild spell by November standards, highs may be closer to normal values at about 9 to 11 C. Frost will still be possible with any brief clearing at night but there will likely be enough cloud around to keep most nights frost-free in most places.

My local weather on Thursday was overcast with some sun getting through the layers at times, and it was around 6 C with light winds, so not too wintry feeling yet although the local hills show extensive frost on the trees just above our elevation and that seemed to persist in the rather moist conditions with misty low cloud over most of the hills to our south and west. It's worth noting that Toronto (even downtown) broke records for cold in the past few days including one from 1873, and that despite the urban heat island that has grown considerably over that elapsed time (from zero to perhaps 2.5 to 3 C deg in its impact on cold temperatures) so nowadays the city observing site breaks very few old records for cold. The last time that it broke two consecutive ones would be back in January 1994 which was a brutally cold month there. (the record value was -11 C for the 13th). Some may wonder, if it's that cold in eastern North America, won't that doom any chances of blocking or cold weather in Europe? Not necessarily, there seem to be two different patterns that can develop, one is for the jet stream to get very activated by the cold from North America giving way to a mild southwest flow, but another configuration is a generally depressed jet with weak mid-oceanic ridge development allowing both continents to get cold at the same time. Might be a bit of both outcomes in the long run. I have noticed in my research a strong tendency for record warmth to occur at similar times although I could point to a few counter-examples in either direction. When it turned very mild in December 2015, eastern North America was also setting warm records.

Sunday, 17 November, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 17 to 23 November, 2019

-- Temperatures will average about 1 deg below normal, with a gradually increasing trend.
-- Rainfalls will average near normal but the southeast could see 25 to 50 per cent above normal with slightly below normal likely in the west and the north.
-- Sunshine will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly to mostly cloudy and sometimes rather misty, with patchy light rain or drizzle moving through parts of Ulster towards the midlands and north Leinster. Other areas should be largely dry. Rather cold but with relatively light northwest winds, it should be tolerable, with highs 6 to 9 C.

TONIGHT will see some breaks developing in the cloud and a return to frost and locally dense fog patches with isolated risks of black ice in some parts of the midlands, inland north. Lows -3 to +2 C.

MONDAY will have variable cloud cover, light winds at first becoming moderate southeast later, with rain arriving on the west coast by evening. Highs will be 5 to 8 C east, central and north, 7 to 10 C south and west coasts.

TUESDAY will bring a few outbreaks of light rain and moderate southeast breezes, 40 to 60 km/hr. Lows 3 to 5 C and highs 8 to 10 C. About 5 to 10 mm rain.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY will continue unsettled with rainfalls of 10 to 30 mm, heavier in the southeast than elsewhere. Winds will continue southeast at about 40 to 60 km/hr. Lows will be 4 to 7 C and highs 8 to 10 C.

The further outlook is for somewhat milder but unsettled weather with occasional strong winds and outbreaks of heavier rain possible, temperatures could briefly be above normal by about Monday 25th reaching 12 to 14 C in parts of the south early that week, but this will come with the risk of strong southwest winds developing.

My local weather was damp for the morning hours then a wet snow began, trying to keep going despite rising freezing levels, so that it's basically melting as it falls now, with the temperature stuck at about +2 C.

Monday, 18 November, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of November 18 to 24 2019

-- Temperatures will average close to normal values with a cold start but a milder finish to the week balancing out.
-- Rainfall will generally be in the range of 75 per cent of normal to near normal values but the coastal southeast could have as much as 150% of normal values, with heavy falls expected mid-week.
-- Sunshine will be 50 to 75 per cent of normal.

FORECASTS

TODAY, watch for black ice and patchy freezing fog in many parts of central Ireland to about ten o'clock before it completely dissipates. Some coastal fringes could have a brighter start but cloud is spreading in over top of the shallow fog layers and once those disappear the day may remain cloudy with glimpses of the sun, but with very light winds for most of the day, fog or mist may continue to come and go in some places. Highs will depend on how much the air mixes locally and could be anywhere from about 3 C inland north and central, to 10 C near the west coast and probably about 7 C in Dublin and Cork.

TONIGHT there will be some light rain moving in rather gradually to bring 5-10 mm to parts of Munster and Connacht. It may stay dry until almost daybreak in Leinster and Ulster. Lows 2 to 5 C.

TUESDAY the patchy rain will continue to push further east with 2 to 5 mm for the eastern regions, but partial clearing will develop further west for a time before heavier rain reaches the southwest late in the day. Highs around 8 C.

WEDNESDAY some heavier rain is likely and it may turn very heavy over parts of Wicklow and Wexford with 30 to 50 mm potential there. Other parts of the country are more likely to see 15 to 25 mm at most. Moderate southeast winds will develop, lows near 4 C and highs in the 8 to 10 C range.

THURSDAY some of the remnants of the heavy rain may push through central counties but without as much intensity, then becoming showery later in the day, a further 10 mm of rain is possible with highs reaching about 10 C.

FRIDAY there will be some remnant showers in a slow partial clearing trend, light winds and highs once again close to 10 C.

SATURDAY could provide a break from rainfall for part of the day with highs near 11 C but a vigorous frontal system is expected by Saturday night with strong southerly winds and rain, lasting into part of Sunday, when it will begin to clear by afternoon, once again near 11 C.

The outlook for next week is generally unsettled, milder and rather windy at times with some outbreaks of heavy rainfall likely, highs often in the range of 10 to 13 C.

My local weather on Sunday turned mild enough to thaw most of the lying snowfall and that created dense fog with temperatures near 5 C. A bit of light rain was falling at times. We are into a much milder weather pattern now and that looks like breaking through into eastern regions fairly readily after the current (Atlantic) ocean storm moves into Nova Scotia in a couple of days. By next week it looks like a non-stop roller coaster ride of strong lows moving from Pacific to Atlantic and over to Europe reminding me a bit of December 2015. Hope that won't last too long but it is somewhat consistent with the long range outlook.

Wednesday, 20 November, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 19 to 25 November 2019

-- Temperatures will average about 1 to 2 deg above normal.
-- Rainfall will be near normal in most areas but as much as twice normal in the southeast. Heavy rain is expected there today and tomorrow, and again around Monday-Tuesday.
-- Sunshine will now be about 75% of normal (yesterday I said near normal but yesterday was one of the days expected to bring that amount and in most places that was the case, so now we just have perhaps one opportunity to log any substantial number of hours, looking like Sunday in some parts, otherwise it will remain overcast much of the time).

FORECASTS

TODAY will bring some heavier intervals of rain across the south, heaviest around Wexford, Carlow, Waterford, Kilkenny, south Laois and south Wicklow where 20-40 mm could fall. Other areas will see closer to 10-20 mm. Mild and breezy, winds southeast 40 to 60 km/hr, with highs 11 to 13 C. The heavier rain is likely to develop later in the day so not too bad for the morning hours.

TONIGHT will continue wet and mild with rainfalls approaching totals of 50 mm in some parts of the southeast with flooding possible in poorly drained areas. Other parts of the country will have intermittent lighter rainfalls of about 5 to 15 mm. Winds southeast 30 to 50 km/hr and some dense fog developing in central counties. Lows 6 to 9 C.

THURSDAY the heavier rain may continue but will tend to lose some intensity as it spreads further north into central counties. Some further accumulations of 15 to 30 mm are possible. Parts of the west may have a few breaks from the cloud and rain. Winds turning more to the east and continued moderate (40 to 60 km/hr). Lows 5 to 8 C and highs 11 to 13 C.

FRIDAY should see the rain fragmenting more to showers with some breaks in the cloud, and it will stay fairly mild near 10 C. There may be a renewed interval of rain in the southeast as another heavy rain event develops but this one is headed mainly for southern Wales and western England.

For SATURDAY the outlook has changed as the progression of weather systems has slowed down and this means the dry slot between the current complex and the next set due in later Sunday will occur on Saturday night. During the day on Saturday, mostly cloudy with some residual outbreaks of light rain or drizzle in the east mainly, rather cold as morning fog may be slow to lift in some areas, although reasonably mild near some coasts. Lows about -1 to +2 C and highs 4 to 8 C for most, 10 C near some coasts.

SUNDAY will have a clearing trend in the early morning that could lead to frosts and lows -2 to +3 C. Then variable cloud will follow in the daytime with an increase in southerly winds and rain arriving by afternoon in the west, evening across eastern counties. Highs 9 to 11 C.

MONDAY will be windy with intervals of rain or showers, some heavy falls are possible in the south again. Highs 8 to 12 C (milder in the south).

TUESDAY may see a secondary wave forming to bring a renewed outbreak of rain and strong winds in the south coastal counties. Highs once again 8 to 12 C (milder in the south).

The outlook is for this renewed Atlantic regime to continue and perhaps lock in for a while. I am expecting something like December 2015 or perhaps December 2013 which was somewhat stormier and just about as mild. This may lead to a more wintry episode by January if there's any signs of life in the Scandinavian high department. Keep in the back of your mind the outlook that it could get very unsettled around the Christmas holiday period (rain and wind rather than snow seeming the most likely type of disturbance).

My local weather on Tuesday involved the slow departure of leftover moisture from a weak system that changed from drizzle to melting wet snow around 0400h and kept up with that on and off to early afternoon with no real accumulations here, probably a few inches at higher elevations. It cleared right around sunset. The high was near 3 C and now it has dropped to about -5 C due to the clear skies although the air mass is not particularly cold. We will probably wake up to some ice fog and a slow clearing. Heavy snow will be developing in South Dakota and spreading towards the northeast but many parts of the U.S. and eastern Canada will get a warmer spell now as that low tracks well to the north of the Great Lakes.

The tropical season was not quite done after all, Tropical Storm Sebastien formed northeast of Puerto Rico and since the letter Q is not used that's the 18th named storm of 2019. Most of them have been weak tropical storms (or not so weak in a couple of cases) but Dorian will be the signature event of the season. Remnants of Sebastien might be incorporated into any disturbed weather in the central to eastern Atlantic in about five days' time. It is not likely to become a hurricane or if it does, just briefly a cat-1 south of Bermuda moving northeast.

Thursday, 21 November, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 21 to 27 November 2019

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal values (which would be around 9 for the maximum and 3 for the minimum.
-- Rainfalls will average near normal in parts of the west and north, to 50-100 per cent above normal in the south and east, with a few locations possibly as high as 250% of normal around Kilkenny and Carlow.
-- Sunshine will average about half the usual amount, which is rather low at this time of year (about 2 hours a day).

FORECASTS

TODAY will see renewed heavy rainfall moving gradually further north and east from current locations in Waterford, Kilkenny and eastern Cork into Tipps. Some places may get 35 to 50 mm of rain in the inland southeast with flooding risks associated. The rain will be less intense further north on the east coast and into the north midlands, with 15 to 30 mm potential, and rain will be more showery in nature further west and into parts of Connacht and Ulster with 10 to 20 mm likely there. Moderate east to southeast winds will continue at 30 to 50 km/hr, and temperatures will be in the 8 to 11 C range.

TONIGHT the rain will likely continue to show a slow northward drift overall but will begin to lose some of its heavier intensity in general with 10 to 15 mm further amounts likely in some parts. Lows 6 to 9 C.

FRIDAY will see the rain more confined to the eastern half of the country with showery bursts travelling northwestward into the midlands and Ulster as well. Partly cloudy with showers further west. Highs 8 to 10 C. About 15 to 25 mm rain possible in some eastern and central counties with 5 to 10 mm further west.

SATURDAY the rain will be persistent near the east coast, sporadic further west with frequent dry intervals developing in western counties. About 10 to 15 mm rain is likely in the east. Some dense and persistent fog may develop in parts of inland Leinster and those areas may remain colder than others as a result. Lows 2 to 5 C and highs 5 to 8 C.

SUNDAY there may be a brief dry slot between weather systems as the persistent lows move east into England to make way for a narrow ridge of higher pressure followed by another Atlantic low heading for west Munster by the early hours of Monday. This may mean a slight frost for Sunday morning in parts of the inland west mainly, a few sunny breaks in the morning, then cloudy by afternoon with rain likely later in the day. Morning lows -2 to +3 C and highs 7 to 10 C. By Sunday night, another heavy rain may develop across the south with 30 to 50 mm amounts possible. Coming soon after the earlier event, this may lead to renewed and possibly serious flooding concerns in the southeast.

MONDAY will continue wet with an interval of strong winds possible near the southeast coast, and temperatures near 10 C.

The outlook for next week is unsettled, with more disturbances due to strike from the southwest at about two-day intervals mid-week and towards the weekend (which would be 30 Nov - 1 Dec). No sign of much let up in this wet and generally mild pattern going forward into December although at times there will be considerably colder air masses close to western Europe trying to get into the mix, however it looks like most of them will be held back to the east of central England to northeast France. Those areas could see some snow at times whenever the rainfall events hit western Britain, France and Ireland.

My local weather on Wednesday was sunny and we found it quite mild down in the valley (at least 12 degrees) although it never seemed to warm up much above freezing at home. That may be because there is snow cover in all higher areas to our west and north with bare ground evident between here and the lower parts of the Columbia valley (which are a good 500 metres lower than us). Clear and quite frosty outside now at midnight.

Saturday, 23 November, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 23 to 29 Nov 2019

-- Temperatures will average near normal to perhaps 1 deg above normal in the south and east.
-- Rainfall will now average a little greater than normal in some parts of the south and east but variations around the country will become less pronounced, however Ulster will continue a little drier than normal.
-- Sunshine may exceed normal values with some brighter days likely later in the period, but the first half will remain cloudy.


FORECASTS

TODAY will see further outbreaks of rain, sometimes persistent and rather heavy in parts of Leinster, and a few showers will drift further west into Connacht and northern portions of Munster at times. Ulster will have some outbreaks of light rain too. The best chance for any brighter intervals will be in west Munster and near the south coast. Highs will reach 7 to 9 C. Rainfalls of about 10-20 mm are possible in some places.

TONIGHT will have a brief clearing of skies allowing for patchy ground frost to develop in north Leinster, the midlands and Ulster. This will likely not survive until morning with cloud moving in rather rapidly after midnight. Rain will arrive by daybreak on the west coast. Lowest temperatures may be -1 to +3 C around midnight then rising temperatures after that.

SUNDAY will see outbreaks of rain, some rather heavy in the south, where 10-20 mm seems likely. Highs 8 to 10 C. Winds generally not too strong as the low tracks towards the south coast and keeps its stronger wind circulation offshore.

MONDAY there will be further rain for part of the day, with highs near 9 C, then a gradual and once again brief clearing between systems before yet another Atlantic low arrives late Monday night.

TUESDAY is looking wet and windy from this next low which may be the strongest of the series, if it tracks into Ireland as shown in some guidance then strong winds could hit the southeast briefly, and heavy rainfalls seem possible for most southern and central counties, with highs around 8 C.

WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy and showery with brisk westerly winds and highs near 7 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will turn somewhat colder again with more sunshine and only isolated showers, and there may be at least light frosts with lows near -2 C and highs near 6 C.

The outlook for next weekend (30 Nov to 1 Dec) depends on the track of low pressure that may push across the southern fringes with a sleety rain-snow mix possible for a time, since the cold air will remain in place while it comes and goes on that track. There's sometimes a chance with that long-range scenario that the eventual track is further south and misses altogether allowing the cool, dry weather to continue, so that's a possibility this far in advance. Then after that episode, the flow looks like it may go more into a west to northwest cool but unsettled pattern with the likely result rather chilly temperatures, occasionally mixed precipitation types, and strong winds at times, as we get into December. That's not to say there won't be a few milder days with rain mixed in as a pattern like that often relaxes for a few days at a time.

My local weather stayed generally dry but the morning remained foggy and some snow grains were being deposited by the fog (without any accumulation), then it cleared up and we had patches of blue sky and remnant clouds at hilltop levels, quite cold with a high of about 4 C. The truly cold air has retreated back into its source region and wherever this current air mass can mix, it warms up to near 10 C. Some valleys would remain trapped in an inversion and low cloud and freezing fog could result there.

Monday, 25 November, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 25 Nov to 1st Dec 2019

-- Temperatures will average between normal values and 1.0 deg below normal, colder to the north.
-- Rainfall will average 75 to 100 per cent of normal values, although possibly closer to 50 in the north.
-- Sunshine will be infrequent for the first half of the weekly interval and relatively generous after that, the balance will be 25% above normal.


FORECASTS

TODAY will have scattered showers but no heavy accumulations are expected with 2 to 7 mm on average, heavier amounts towards the north of Connacht and west Ulster. Some brighter intervals are likely to develop across the south with highs reaching 11 C.

TONIGHT will become overcast with outbreaks of rain developing in parts of west Munster. Lows 2 to 6 C.

TUESDAY the remnants of Tropical Storm Sebastien will arrive in west Munster, spreading moderate rain across much of the country in several bands, 15 to 25 mm likely. Some locally strong southeast winds gusting to 100 km/hr are possible but the circulation is quite small in scale and these might only affect various parts of the south coast for several hours at a time. More widespread moderate southeast winds of 50 to 80 km/hr are expected over most regions. Highs 8 to 11 C (12 to 14 C possible in southwest).

WEDNESDAY by early morning the meandering remnant low will be passing the southeast coast en route to southern England and rain will begin to taper off to showers, then further intervals of cloud and partly cloudy skies with passing showers for the daytime with moderate westerly winds at times. Lows near 4 C and highs near 9 C.

THURSDAY will also be partly cloudy with a few showers and winds turning gradually to the northwest, lows near 3 C and highs near 8 C.

FRIDAY will become sunny and colder in most areas, with a few weak bands of mixed showers forming in a brisk northerly flow. Lows near -1 C and highs around 6 C.

SATURDAY the south coast may be brushed by a disturbance tracking east off the coast, with some sleety light rain possible and a coating of snow on some hills inland. The rest of the country will likely escape this precipitation and remain cold and bright if rather cloudy from higher cloud layers extending northwards. This will trend to sunny skies in parts of the north. Lows -2 to +2 C and highs near 6 C.

SUNDAY the cold and dry weather will continue and may turn a few degrees colder especially over the inland north, with lows of -4 to -1 C and highs of 4 to 7 C expected.

By Monday of the following week (2 Dec) milder air will be pushing in from the west with a band of light rain or drizzle moving through northern counties possibly preceded by sleet or wet snow. It will then turn considerably milder for several days with highs above 10 C for much of the week. Once that milder sector has come and gone, a variable rather windy and unsettled pattern will follow with frequent wet intervals, occasional strong wind gusts and temperatures oscillating either side of normal values (which by then are near 8 C daytime and near 2 C at night).

My local weather on Sunday was partly sunny despite occasional mist, and cold with the Saturday snow not melting much, and highs close to the freezing mark.

Wednesday, 27 November, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 27 Nov to 3 Dec 2019

-- Temperatures will average near normal in the south to 1.0 deg below normal in the north. The interval will end with milder temperatures after turning quite cold this weekend.
-- Rainfall will average about 50% of normal in the south, to only 25 per cent of normal in the north.
-- Sunshine will average about 25% to 50% above normal but that will be concentrated on the weekend, however it looks like at least normal amounts of sunshine even on the cloudier days before and after that too.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with a few breaks more frequent in central counties, and there will be a few showers, but amounts of only 2 to 5 mm expected, with moderate northwest winds at times, highs 8 to 10 C.

TONIGHT will remain partly to mostly cloudy with a few light showers, and lows around 2 C.

THURSDAY will also be partly to mostly cloudy with a few showers, lows near 2 C and highs 7 to 9 C. Winds will continue to be rather light (for November especially) from a northwest direction although somewhat variable, and it will begin to turn colder late in the day.

FRIDAY will become more sunny than cloudy in most areas, and a bit colder with morning lows -3 to +2 C and highs 6 to 8 C.

SATURDAY will bring light rain to some areas near the south coast and a sleety mix of rain and snow over hills in south coastal counties. Further north it will be dry with high cloud layers from the southern disturbance, trending to sunny skies in parts of Ulster. Lows -4 to +3 C (the colder values inland north and higher values near south coast) and highs about 5 C in most areas.

SUNDAY will be sunny and quite cold with sharp morning frosts, lows -5 to -2 C and afternoon highs near 5 C.

MONDAY will bring variable cloud and the chance of some brief drizzle or light rain as warm fronts pass through the north, otherwise dry and turning considerably milder with rising temperatures through the night followed by afternoon temperatures reaching 10 or 11 C.

TUESDAY will also be breezy and mild with highs 10 to 13 C.

NEXT WEEK will then continue rather mild with highs 10 to 13 C, nights will be mostly frost free and there may be some rain in the mix by about Thursday. It will be breezy at times becoming windy by Thursday and Friday. It now appears just slightly cooler for a time around the end of next week into the weekend of the 7th-8th December, before a more variable regime sets in towards mid-December.

My local weather on Tuesday was overcast with mist patches on nearby hills and a high of about 3 C. There is a bit of ice and snow on the ground although more ice than snow at this point. Local hills are snow covered but the ski resorts are hoping for much more than we've had so far. Heavy snow did fall to the east of here across the northern plains states and is now heading east from there towards the inland portions of New York state and New England, eastern Ontario and southern Quebec.

I am going to post monthly outlooks (for Ireland) around the 28th of each month from now on. For December, I am predicting temperatures 1.5 to 2.5 degrees above normal, rainfall near normal to 25% above normal, and occasionally stormy with strong winds especially towards end of the month. Just an educated guess but I think it is more likely to be a windy holiday period than a white Christmas scenario but perhaps some northern hills will see some snow out of that kind of pattern.

Friday, 29 November, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 29 Nov to 5 Dec 2019

-- Temperatures will average near normal or slightly above in the north and west but may come in 1 to 2 deg below normal in the south and east where colder air this weekend may linger through parts of Monday and even Tuesday while other regions warm up faster.
-- Rainfall will average no more than 25 per cent of normal and some places may remain almost dry.
-- Sunshine will average 25 to 50 per cent above normal, higher values likely in the inland north and central counties.

FORECASTS

TODAY will become sunny but cool in the north, with cloudy skies occasionally breaking to partly cloudy across the south, where some isolated showers are possible, in particular along the Wicklow coast from weak streamer bands forming over the Irish Sea. These showers could bring some mixed forms of precipitation on higher parts of east-facing slopes. Highs of 5 to 8 C from north to south.

TONIGHT will see clear and cold conditions in the north with lows of -3 C and patchy freezing fog. The south will remain more overcast with lows 2 to 4 C.

SATURDAY will continue sunny in the north and cloudy in the south where it could rain (1-3 mm expected) with sleet or snow accumulations on a few hills inland from the south coast. Central regions from west to east will be under the cloud also but with some brighter intervals, and it should remain dry for all but the south coastal districts. Highs around 5 or 6 C.

SUNDAY will bring more widespread clearing of skies but there could be some lingering fog in valleys after a cold start, with morning lows of about -5 C possible inland, to -2 C on coastal fringes. The day will remain quite cold with light winds; some places may not warm up much past the freezing point while coastal areas could reach 5 or 6 C.

MONDAY and TUESDAY, the cold air is going to be somewhat reluctant to leave the inland southeast as light winds and a temperature inversion make full mixing of the air difficult. Much milder air will be seeping into the north and west, somewhat more readily in coastal areas and in between there will be a slight rise in temperatures. Skies will remain partly cloudy to overcast in many areas with some trapped low level cloud and fog in the inland southeast. With that mixture, expect temperatures as mild as 8 to 11 C in the north and west, but possibly much lower in the inland southeast, -3 to +4 C may be the range there. In between, readings around 5 to 8 C are likely in parts of the midlands and north Leinster, east Ulster. There may be variations over short distances as pockets of colder air remain unmoved. It should remain dry except for some drizzle near the north coast at times.

By WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY, stronger westerly winds will complete the transition to milder air in most regions and temperatures will respond by moving closer to 10 C in all regions. There may be some light rain in parts of the north.

The OUTLOOK is for this milder spell to continue into next weekend (7 and 8 Dec) with stronger winds at times, gusting over 80 km/hr, and a few intervals of rain, with temperatures near 11 or 12 C, then much colder air will push in by about Monday 9th as winds turn northerly for a time. Most of the guidance towards mid-December goes back to a cool, dry theme similar to this coming few days.

My local weather on Thursday turned sunny and it was quite cold especially in shaded areas which never got much above -5 C. It was closer to +3 C in the Columbia valley where the ground is still snow-free.