Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

Tuesday, 2 February, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 2 to 8 Feb 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg below normal mainly due to falling temperatures by this weekend.
-- Rainfalls will average 75 per cent of normal values.
-- Sunshine will average near normal as the cloudy regime begins to trend more partly cloudy over time.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with a few breaks in the overcast this morning, mainly in eastern counties. Some vigorous showers are advancing through Munster at present and will reach Leinster by mid-day. As they slow down, they will begin to merge into longer intervals of showery rain, and more outbreaks of rain will follow from the Atlantic into western counties later. About 15-25 mm rainfalls can be expected. Quite mild with highs 10 to 13 C.

TONIGHT will turn misty or foggy as rain tapers off to drizzle, lows 5 to 7 C.

WEDNESDAY will continue rather misty or foggy with a few intervals of light rain, possibly a bit of partial clearing later in the day, highs 8 to 10 C.

THURSDAY will be partly cloudy with isolated showers, lows near 3 C and highs near 8 C.

FRIDAY will be partly cloudy with isolated showers also, lows near 2 C and highs near 7 C.

The outlook into the weekend and next week has been trending colder in general; yesterday evening there was almost total model consensus for a strong cold spell on easterly winds and considerable snow potential -- this has now diverged with several models continuing to show that outcome but one in particular flipping back to a continuation of the current regime or at least only a very slight cooling trend over the weekend followed by a return to milder air.

I am assessing the probability of the cold outcome to be something like 2:1 in favour, so will describe what I think that outcome would mean for forecasts, with the caveat that this is not a certainty yet.

The weekend would likely turn colder in stages with temperatures near 5 C on Saturday and 3 C on Sunday. Any showers or outbreaks of light rain would begin to turn sleety and eventually could mix with snow.

Even colder air could then arrive by later Sunday and persist well into next week, with moderate to strong east winds at times adding more chill, and potential for temperatures to fall to freezing or below in the daytime hours, and quite cold at night (-5 to -10 C). With the east winds and passing disturbances to the south, the potential for snow especially in Leinster and parts of Ulster and coastal Munster would become quite high.

As I say, this is the "leading option" of those available, but there is still some chance of this cold outcome being avoided by a continuation of this current regime or at least the form it would be taking later this week when the Atlantic lows are weaker than today's. Hopefully the model consensus seen last evening will return later today and then stick around until we get to that cold spell.

My local weather on Monday was rather dreadful, light rain and quite mild temperatures near 5 C replaced the falling snow around mid-morning and there's quite a bit of slush around as a result, with the snowpack reduced slightly. This should revert back to snow and colder temperatures soon with a re-freeze of the current messy conditions. Meanwhile the east coast storm hit with full force; New York City had 25-40 cm snowfalls, and reports of 50-70 cm from northern New Jersey into parts of eastern PA. New England states are seeing quite a mixture of wintry precip types, with the tendency being heavy snow west to sleet east (around Boston). The storm was more moderate for Baltimore and Washington DC which had perhaps 10 cm snowfalls on average. It's a rather complex and slow-moving storm that won't be totally finished with that region until Wednesday, with more wintry weather predicted over the coming two weeks including some very cold spells.

Thursday, 4 February, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 4 to 10 Feb 2021

-- Temperatures will average about 4 to 5 deg below normal, starting off near average and sliding gradually down into the frigid zone of 6 to 8 deg below normal next week.

-- Rainfalls or the liquid equivalent of melted snowfall will amount to perhaps half of the average amount, although the amount of snow will likely be a significant portion of that and obviously above any long term snowfall average.

-- Sunshine will likely average near normal as there will be a few breaks in the overcast most days and possibly some longer spells of wintry sunshine especially over the western half of the country next week.


FORECASTS

Will update the discussion of range of possible outcomes starting with the Monday segment of this forecast section today.


TODAY will see a mixture of cloud and some sunny breaks although mostly cloudy further north with some further outbreaks of light rain giving 5-10 mm locally in Ulster, north Leinster, and 2-5 mm in parts of Connacht and the midlands. Generally dry in the south with isolated showers mostly near higher terrain. Winds generally light to moderate southwesterly although somewhat stronger in the east and north at times. Highs 7 to 9 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy to overcast with outbreaks of light rain mostly confined to the north and some central counties, lows 3 to 5 C.

FRIDAY will have mostly cloudy skies with a few brighter intervals, as rain tapers off across Ulster, but then circulates back around from the north into Connacht, feeding later into parts of the midlands and Clare then eventually further south into west Munster by overnight hours. This rainfall will amount to around 5-10 mm, with the east and south somewhat drier. Highs 6 to 8 C.

SATURDAY will begin to feel the first effects of colder northeast winds with bands of showers, turning somewhat more wintry at least over higher terrain, as temperatures begin to slide down gradually towards 4 C later in the day, still holding around 7 C in parts of Munster however.

SUNDAY will become colder again with mixed wintry showers in moderate northeast winds 40 to 60 km/hr, a growing risk of snowfall accumulating on hills in the east, and temperatures steady in the 3 to 5 C range. At about this point in time the travelling low will have reached northeast France and Belgium where it will stall out and produce a sleety cold rain and snow mixture for eastern England with some heavy falls of all forms possible there.

MONDAY / NEXT WEEK ... For next week, the guidance has begun to cluster more around one unified solution although there is still somewhat of a range of outcomes following on from what we discussed here yesterday ... there will almost definitely be a wintry spell from Monday to late in the week and moderate to severe cold as easterly winds set in at around 40 to 70 km/hr. The more moderate guidance still shows some mixing potential across the south and reserves the colder temperatures for the northern half of the country. The guidance that was more aggressive yesterday has either remained similar or intensified towards more extreme solutions. From all that, these would be the ranges of forecast conditions on a daily basis next week ...

MONDAY will likely be quite cold and windy with some organized snow streamers, possibly mixing with sleet showers near coasts or more likely near the south coast which will get into the action partially, with the strongest wintry shower activity off the Irish Sea into Leinster and east Ulster. These snow (or mixed wintry) showers will sometimes make fairly significant progress across the central counties into some parts of west Munster and Connacht but the tendency will be for more sunshine and dry intervals on the Atlantic coast. Temperatures will start out in the range of -3 to -1 C and rise only slightly to 1 to 3 C, although possibly holding closer to 5-7 C in southwest counties.

TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY will continue similar although if some guidance is correct the cold will deepen by about one or two degrees each day with nights reaching the -6 to -4 C range and days staying about -2 to +1 C (except somewhat higher right near some exposed coasts). More wintry showers almost all of which will be snow are likely and the dynamics may produce localized thundersnow showers. Amounts could reach the 10-30 cm range if some aggressive guidance proves correct. In the more moderate scenario, the snow will be more confined to the northern counties with a tendency to mixtures falling further south (although still snow on hills in that outcome). Temperatures would not be quite as severe in that option.

LATER NEXT WEEK becomes quite interesting too with various scenarios on the table for (a) possibly an extended easterly cold spell, (b) possibly a vigorous battleground scenario with cold hanging on at the surface leading to heavy snow outbreaks, or (c) still the option discussed yesterday of a more progressive withdrawal of the cold towards the north confining any remnant snows to Ulster and changing the precipitation over to rain across large parts of Ireland. At this point I have to say that the middle option (b) seems the most likely of the three as the cold air will be entrenched but with so much of the guidance wanting to re-energize the Atlantic flow to the south, it seems to favour the outcome of occasional snowfalls in that later portion of the cold spell.

Longer term, all kinds of scenarios are on the table and these range from prolonged cold, renewed cold after a brief interruption, mixed spells of cold and mild, or even a bit of a reversal to quite mild and stormy Atlantic dominated weather. I would favour the mixed spells of these options if I had to bet on one, but they all have some valid chance of coming to reality.

So the current "bottom line" is that a fairly severe wintry outbreak seems all but locked in now, with a north to south gradient of probability ranging from near certain in the north to perhaps a 2:1 chance in the south. That would make the odds fairly high for central counties. The duration of the cold spell is perhaps more in question than its arrival which we could say is going to be gradual in stages over the weekend then more like "full on" by Monday or so.

My local weather on Wednesday turned out quite sunny for a change as somewhat colder air arrived, temperatures hovered in the range of -2 to +1 C before dropping off more sharply after sunset, now partly cloudy and -7 C.

The eastern U.S. are digging or melting their way out of the recent snowfalls and the storm made its way into Quebec and New Brunswick in eastern Canada. Very mild air was drawn up into the far eastern provinces with highs near 15 C in some parts of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. That won't last very long before much colder air arrives in the circulation around the dying storm. Much colder air is heading south now behind a rather weak disturbance that is approaching the Midwestern states and this very cold air will gradually get a firm grip on all regions of central and eastern North America, with the west turning quite mild under a ridge located near the west coast. Temperatures as low as -45 C over the central arctic islands will push south and it will still be near -35 C when this air mass reaches the northern plains states and northern Ontario, to -25 C a bit further south than that. As the winter has been fairly mild the Great Lakes have very little ice cover and warmer than usual water temperatures in the 3-6 C range which is going to allow snow squall activity to become heavy by the weekend as winds increase to about 70 km/hr as the frigid air arrives there. One of the best analogues to what's happening generally is 1895 which was an exceptionally cold February in both western Europe and eastern North America.

Saturday, 6 February, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 6 to 12 Feb 2021

-- Temperatures will average 4 to 5 deg below normal, with a slight moderation likely near the end of the week.
-- Precipitation estimates are rather uncertain as most of the liquid equivalent will be late in the period and details about the "breakdown" phase of the cold spell are quite uncertain; my estimate is that near average amounts of precipitation are likely overall.
-- Sunshine will probably not reach average mid-February amounts in very many locations, some western counties may approach those (2.5-3.0 hours a day). The average further east may be quite low due to frequent cloud cover.


FORECASTS

TODAY will begin to feel considerably colder as the first outer edges of the impending arctic air mass push across the Irish Sea on moderate northeast winds 50 to 70 km/hr. Skies will be mostly cloudy with a few breaks most likely towards the west coast. Some bands of mixed wintry showers will form and hail could be one of the more frequent components, along with cold rain, ice pellets and snow on some hills. Highs today only 3 to 6 C. It may be somewhat more moderate in parts of west Munster which will be feeling the full effects somewhat later.

TONIGHT will continue mostly cloudy with mixed wintry showers, cold with northeast winds 40 to 70 km/hr. Lows will be in the zero to 2 C range, feeling more like -3 C.

SUNDAY will be windy and cold with scattered wintry showers, as the colder air will not be fully assembled over Ireland until late in the day, the mixture of showers will be considerable and will take various forms, but some snow could begin to fall especially on higher terrain and in Ulster. At this point, storm "Darcy" as it has been named by various met services will be dropping potentially large amounts of snow, sleet and mixed wintry precipitation over southeast England, on higher ground there could be as much as 30 cms. The precipitation to hit Ireland during the cold spell is probably not directly related to "Darcy" but I'm sure the general public will think of the entire event as related if not integrated with Darcy, so having made that comment I am going to avoid talking about Darcy after today since I only consider the southeast England outcome really the direct product of this storm. Many other factors are going to be involved in what happens from late Sunday to the end of next week.

MONDAY will become very windy at times, especially near the south coast, as a disturbance begins to move into France from the Atlantic by afternoon or evening. The day may start out fairly dry although quite cloudy and very cold, with a gradual increase in the coverage of westward-moving snow streamers. This passing storm's strong wind gradient will mean that any snow or sleet streamers that hit the south coast (around Cork) will be wind-driven and potentially quite stormy in that region, as winds could reach 70-100 km/hr, especially towards the overnight hours into Tuesday morning. ... The east coast will be seeing winds of 50-80 km/hr and bands of wintry precipitation gradually increasing in their extent, probably more snow than any other forms, but sleet or hail are possible, along with ice pellets and thunder. These bands will be both sporadic and shifting around in their locations, the net effect for most places in Leinster and the midlands will be intervals of snow or sleet and some brighter spells, accumulations of 5-8 cms will be fairly widespread, and 10-15 cms possible (especially on higher ground). Parts of the north will likely have more continuous light to moderate snow in east winds of 40 to 70 km/hr. Temperatures in all regions will be in the range of -1 to +2 C and feeling like -5 C in the strong winds.

TUESDAY will probably see a repeat of these conditions, or a continuation of them. The tendency will be for conditions to deteriorate gradually on Monday especially towards afternoon and evening so that if there is any respite overnight it could quickly become stormy again on Tuesday morning, with temperatures steady around -1 C (possibly near +1 or +2 near some exposed coasts). Further scattered accumulations of 5 to 15 cms of snow are quite possible in many areas including the south coast, most of Leinster and Ulster, parts of south Connacht and more hit or miss in Munster away from the south coast snowfall area near Cork. There are chances that some areas will get heavy snowfalls and severe disruption although this is not a certain outcome (at least I don't consider it to be as certain as in storm Emma's rampage in the southeast in 2018). Hopefully later forecasts will give you more precise details and timing on disruptive snow events. At this admittedly early point in the preparations, I would say the best guess is localized maxima around 20-30 cms, more widespread 5-15 cm, and some lower accumulations even within the snowfall zones, with localized zero snowfall outcomes in the west.

WEDNESDAY could see some continuation of these harsh wintry conditions although it may begin to abate somewhat depending on the details of a gradual warming trend that could begin to show itself in the south by later Wednesday. There seems to be a fairly high risk of snow or sleet developing after mid-day Wednesday but before that starts, a more stable atmosphere and a shift to southeast winds could cut off a lot of the streamer activity for a time. Also temperatures could begin to edge back up into the mixed precipitation zone (2-5 C). Ulster is the most likely region to see significant warm frontal snows from late Wednesday into Thursday.

By THURSDAY this developing warming trend will probably begin to get considerably more organized and fronts will be advancing slowly but surely north and east, turning snow or sleet over to rain in southern then central areas, as temperatures rise slowly in the range of 3 to 7 C. Winds southeasterly 40 to 70 km/hr as a rough estimate (the details may turn out more intense however).

The warming trend seems fairly robust on most guidance although I noticed the Canadian model was changing its theme from warming to a stalling out of moderate cold southeasterly winds and the chance of reloading the severe cold into the following week. I think that option is probably fairly unlikely to verify unless we see other guidance starting to trend in that direction, for the time being, the most reliable models are showing quite a strong warming trend that pushes temperatures up above 10 C eventually around the weekend of 13th-14th.

So the summary would be this -- a gradual entry into the coldest air of this winter season, with full entry into the cold achieved by Sunday night into Monday morning from east to west, then increasingly harsh conditions likely reaching their most intense around Tuesday, followed by a gradual withdrawal from the worst of the chill and snowfall but perhaps with intervals of warm frontal snow to round out the wintry interval around late Wednesday into early Thursday (this part less certain at this more distant point in time). And any snow on the ground by that point will likely just melt away fairly gradually on Friday into Saturday due to milder temperatures and a little rain, hoping that the breakdown does not also feature heavy rainfall because that could produce a new flooding risk. (this does not appear all that likely given the sort of mild, dry pattern that is signalled for the weekend of 13th-14th).

As to the geographical extent of disruptive snow, I am pretty sure we're going to end up with a patchwork quilt sort of outcome of various snowfall amounts as streamers come and go but tend to favour certain locations over others, but it should be underscored that parts of Cork need to be on alert for their own somewhat separate event due to the occasionally good potential produced by these winds between east and southeast at various times, whether this amounts to widespread light snow or localized heavier snow, it will be rather unusual for that part of the country. Central Leinster is probably somewhat more used to snowfalls and certainly they are reasonably frequent in parts of Ulster. The northwest will be more like a hit or miss zone of either no snow or some snow, as there's a lot of terrain to cross and the Irish Sea is rather narrow at that latitude for production so that it might take streamers hugging the north coast as cold air pours out of Scotland to get snow into some parts of Donegal for example. Snow could fall almost anywhere in this spell but if you had to guess places that would escape it, look for local examples of subtropical vegetation, it tends to grow in places that avoid wintry weather a lot.

That certainly does not include where I live -- we had another 5 cms this morning followed by sunshine and gusty northwest winds, but it was also rather mild despite all that at 2-4 C up here and 7-10 C in valleys around southern B.C.; colder air is still massing to our north and spilling down the east side of the Rockies a lot faster than it's getting into the valleys between mountain ranges, but it's coming eventually to drop our temperatures towards -10 C next week. The eastern U.S. are now bracing for another snowstorm of 15-25 cms expected to hit during Super Bowl Sunday (7th) so many won't even notice it, I suppose, as it comes and goes within about six hours in some cases. After that storm, colder in stages along the east coast, with more slight snowfall events expected every few days and temperatures about ten degrees below their normal values.

Monday, 8 February, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 8 to 14 Feb 2021

-- Temperatures will average 3 to 4 deg below normal, coldest around Tuesday-Wednesday, somewhat milder by Friday-Saturday, then settling back below average again around Sunday.
-- Total precipitation is likely to be near normal but the bulk of it will come on Thursday into Friday, and in many places will likely be a scenario of snow changing to rain; that phase will be fairly heavy on a daily basis but averaged over a weekly time frame closer to average in terms of total amounts.
-- Sunshine will be at a premium and any places that see much sunshine will do well to reach half of the average for mid-February.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be windy and cold with a few localized bands of sleety mixed precipitation likely from the Irish Sea into central and north Leinster, as well as south and east Ulster. There could also be localized sleet or snow outbreaks in the Cork region by afternoon or more likely evening. Otherwise a lot of places will have a dry day with any localized snowfalls being in the trace to 3 cm range in most cases. Some sunshine could be recorded near the west coast but it will remain generally overcast. Highs will be in the 2 to 4 C range with winds easterly 50 to 70 km/hr adding a few degrees of chill to that.

TONIGHT will continue overcast, windy and cold with the coverage of east coast mixed wintry showers perhaps increasing slowly and turning more to snow in the mixtures. Some potential exists for thunder near the coast. Localized snowfall amounts of 2 to 5 cm possible. Lows -2 to zero C, winds easterly 50 to 70 km/hr. There may be outbreaks of sleet or snow near the south coast where winds might be sometimes a bit stronger (60 to 90 km/hr).

TUESDAY will continue windy and very cold with localized snowfalls in streamers coming in from the Irish Sea and along the south coast at times. Local snowfalls of 2 to 8 cm are possible. Mostly dry and cold in many areas however, and winds easterly 40 to 60 km/hr except 60 to 80 km/hr near the south coast. Highs 2 to 4 C.

WEDNESDAY will see little change in the pattern, however winds will turn a little more to the southeast which may change the distribution of any sea effect snow streamers, making the south coast a more productive source, and shifting the inland trajectory more towards south Ulster and the north midlands. Lows near -3 C and highs 1 to 4 C in east-southeast winds of 50 to 80 km/hr adding a considerable chill factor.

THURSDAY ... Most guidance now supports an active "breakdown" snowfall risk as milder Atlantic air slowly pushes into the far western counties but encounters resistance from the entrenched cold air. Snow may develop quite widely across many regions with potential for 10-20 cm amounts. It would change rather slowly to sleet and then rain only in the west-central and southern inland counties during the day, as temperatures worked their way up to 8 C in Kerry and 3-5 C in counties from Galway, Clare, Limerick around to Waterford. Lower temperatures would remain in place (-1 to +3 C) further east and north. Winds southeast 40 to 60 km/hr would turn more southerly in milder air to the west.

FRIDAY ... According to most current guidance (and confidence in all this remains moderate), the fronts would continue moving slowly through eastern counties as the milder air gained more of a foothold over western and then central counties. There could still be outbreaks of sleet and snow in parts of Leinster and Ulster, and a gradual change to rain or drizzle later in the day (although the concept of the cold never being totally eliminated from east Ulster or north Leinster remains an option). Temperatures would slowly moderate in areas starting out cold, and eventually most if not all areas would reach 8 C or thereabouts in south-southeast winds of 50 to 80 km/hr.

OUTLOOK ... There are two general themes in most guidance concerning weather trends for the following weekend and the week of 15 to 19 Feb. The first theme is that colder air won't be pushed very far to the east of Ireland and might remain in place as close as eastern Britain and the North Sea. That will make the weekend weather in Ireland mostly cloudy with near average temperatures in the 6 to 8 C range, possibly around 10 C in west Munster and coastal Connacht. Then a second theme emerges of a push back to the west of cold air, once again attacked by the Atlantic by about Monday in a second "breakdown" scenario although more of a frontal wave for the west which might not have gotten back into cold air before this begins. So another round of snow or sleet is quite possible around Monday in parts of eastern, central and northern counties. Temperatures would likely come back down to the 2 to 4 C range and after this event, fronts would not push back east but would tend to stall out and weaken allowing colder air to linger at least over eastern and northern counties for a considerable time into the following week. In fact some guidance suggests that there would be periodic renewals of very cold weather after that lasting well into the latter stages of February.

My local weather on Sunday was partly cloudy to overcast and rather cold with temperatures around -6 C. Snow has come and gone through parts of the eastern U.S. and much colder air is pushing gradually further south behind this gradually intensifying low which will go on to produce blizzard conditions in Nova Scotia and Newfoundland today.

Wednesday, 10 February, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland


(Blog format today, trends are generally upward in temperature and precipitation and same old flat line for sunshine)

Cold air has deepened its presence somewhat overnight especially in the northern counties, and it now stands ready to battle the Atlantic which will be returning to its familiar haunts with a number of forays planned over the next three or four days.

Today, expect mostly cloudy skies but the odd sunny break possible especially away from the streamers which will be generally most frequent in these areas -- the southeast and near the south coast, central and northern Leinster occasionally into the midlands, and east Ulster as well as a persistent band near the north coast of Derry moving across Inishowen in north Donegal. All of these streamers can be described as mainly light but occasionally moderate in their intensity, and capable of dropping 2-5 cm snowfalls in their life cycles. Otherwise the day will be largely dry in quite a few places that don't see any streamer activity. Highs today will likely reach about 2 C again in most places, but could be held down a degree or two on higher terrain. Winds will start out easterly, but with a slow veering towards southeast late in the day, in the 40 to 70 km/hr range mainly. This will add about 3-5 deg of wind chill to actual temperatures.

Tonight, winds will be southeast 40-70 km/hr except in west Munster where they may increase to 60-90 km/hr. Cold air will be holding strong in most areas overnight and there could be some local clearing although some streamer activity and resultant snowfall will also continue, with the south coast becoming somewhat more prolific as a source due to the wind shift. Parts of Leinster and Ulster could see localized 2-5 cm snowfalls also. Lows will probably drop a bit from previous nights due to some clear patches developing, -4 to -2 C seems probable.

THURSDAY will start out cloudy and raw with southeast winds of 50-80 km/hr. Some locally heavy snow streamers could develop ahead of the main storm event but many areas will have a dry morning. Snow turning to sleet near coasts will move into west Munster; the snow will likely be heavy on higher ground in Kerry and Cork, but wet and sporadic on lower terrain. In that region, the sleet may turn to rain by afternoon and temperatures could rise rather steadily to around 7 C. Otherwise the cold air will be much more resistant (at first) and snow could break out around mid-day in many counties between the south coast and through the midlands into Connacht and south Ulster. Amounts by evening could be 5-10 cm and this could cause considerable travel disruption especially for inter-city road travel. This snow is only likely to change to sleet right along the south coast and a few kms inland at low elevations. Any hills in this zone could see 10-20 cm snow amounts. By late afternoon or evening heavy snow is possible in the southeast and up the east coast towards south Dublin. Amounts of 5-15 cm are possible, 10-25 cm on the higher ground in the southeast. Much of the guidance suggests that Dublin (city) will be in somewhat of a snow shadow situation due to downsloping from the nearby hills, and snow amounts there could increase more slowly than in other areas (this remains to be seen). Temperatures during the snow event will likely be in the range of -2 to +1 C. Winds will be southeast 40-70 km/hr although sometimes in periods of heavier snow, east 20-40 km/hr. Any onshore flows such as would be expected in central Wicklow and parts of Wexford or Carlow would have a potential to see enhanced amounts.

By THURSDAY NIGHT this snowfall will probably be weakening in general and also its western flanks will be changing over to sleet then rain as somewhat milder air creeps slowly further east, reaching perhaps a Sligo to Waterford line by about midnight or so. The rain in most cases will be rather light at first, becoming heavier later in the night in west Munster. Winds will continue southeast 40-60 km/hr where it is snowing or sleeting (and this activity will also be weaker in many cases), and will become south 50-80 km/hr in the milder sector with the rain. Temperatures will remain about zero to +1 C in the snow/sleet areas of east and northeast, and will rise to 4-5 C with the milder air oozing in (over snow that is melting, so some fog is likely with that).

By FRIDAY some areas of sleet and snow may still be present especially in North Leinster and Ulster, and the further push of mild air will come to a halt for a time, with temperatures 0-2 C in the northeast, and 5-8 C elsewhere. Rain may become heavy at times in the south especially near hills. Winds southerly 50-80 km/hr. Friday night could see a brief push back to the west of the colder air which will be taking advantage of a weaker portion of the incoming Atlantic frontal system at that time. This may turn the rain back to sleet or wet snow in some areas of Connacht and the midlands.

Then on SATURDAY the milder air will slowly start to gain further control but in doing so renewed snowfall or sleet could develop over parts of north Leinster and rain will spread further north and east once more. Eventually most of the guidance now agrees that milder air will push all the cold air out of Ireland and some parts of western Britain before running into greater resistance around central to eastern England. So for Ireland on Saturday, would expect most areas to be overcast with periods of rain and strong southerly winds 60-100 km/hr, with 20-40 mm rainfalls near the south coast, considerably less most other places, and temperatures 7-9 C.

SUNDAY and MONDAY will likely continue with the rain, wind and milder temperatures, and rainfalls could become heavy to excessive near the south coast. Where this rain falls over hills that develop a heavy snow cover, strong melt-driven runoff could lead to stream flooding in the southeast, south central and parts of the southwest as well as possibly Connemara. Temperatures will be near 8 C much of the time.

Now it should be said there is still a slight chance that most of this guidance is wrong about the mild victory over the cold and that the cold might put up a longer or more effective fight, so that needs to be watched, but the chances seem fairly good that mild is going to win based on the current model consensus. There will be times later in the week when renewed Atlantic systems come in but with some cooling of the general south to southwest flow between systems, they may not be starting off as mild as the previous system ended, so temperatures could fall back to the range of 2-5 C then go back up at intervals to around 8-10 C. Just looking at the guidance in broad general terms I would say there is likely a chance of one more cold spell taking place late in the month or more likely into early March. So I don't think this will be winter's "last hurrah" before a spring pattern dominates.

My local weather on Tuesday was sunny and briskly cold at -12 C, and by late evening it had fallen to near -20 C, the coldest night we have had this winter so far. We are on the outer edge of a vast frigid air mass covering almost all of Canada and the northern half of the central to eastern U.S., and readings as low as -45 to -50 can be found well to our north, while -30 is common across the prairies and -25 C in the U.S. midwest. A frontal boundary running from around Oklahoma to Virginia is creating weak disturbances that could bring snow along that path in the next few days, and it's a bit milder to the south (although not above regional normals, near 10 C in the southeastern states is near or a bit below their average at this time of year). The air mass reaching Ireland has its origins in Russia and came across the Baltic regions as well as Poland and Germany. In central Germany this morning some lows near -20 C are being reported, and -10 readings extend into parts of Belgium and the Netherlands. There are also some places in Scotland below -10 C at this hour although -5 C is a ballpark average there.

Unless I want to make a substantial change to the snowfall outlook for Thursday-Friday, there won't be an update issued but that will be assessed around 4-6 p.m. from later guidance.

Friday, 12 February, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 12 to 18 Feb 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal, the smaller departures expected in Ulster and Leinster.
-- Rainfall will average about 2 to 3 times normal amounts across the south, then closer to average in central and northern regions where some of that will be snow overnight and on Saturday.
-- Sunshine will start to appear a little but probably won't surpass half of the normal mid-February amounts.


FORECASTS (and a recap of Thursday's weather outcomes)

On THURSDAY the expected snow only materialized in Connacht and some parts of Munster, and was largely absent from Leinster. In fact, the snowfalls exceeded most forecasts in Galway and Mayo, were about as expected in Clare and some parts of Tipperary, and otherwise did not take place further east. The culprit was dry air at lower levels, some snow was falling into this dry layer and evaporated. Also the system turned out to be weaker in the east and stronger in the west than most guidance suggested. So that's where the expected snow went. The snow has largely stopped falling except for some light flurries here and there; more is expected to develop tonight.

FRIDAY (TODAY) will continue cloudy, windy and cold in most areas, with slightly milder air making a very slow advance into western counties as snow gradually melts there. That will lead to fog over hills especially, and a gradual rise to near 4 C with drizzle at times. The eastern half of Connacht, the midlands, southeast and parts of north Leinster will remain cold and largely dry with a few flurries or patchy drizzle, southeast winds 50 to 70 km/hr and temperatures steady in the range of 2 to 4 C. Most of Ulster will be partly to mostly cloudy with temperatures around 1 to 3 C.

TONIGHT as rain moves a little further east and begins to get heavier near the south coast, areas of sleet and snow are expected to develop over central and eastern Connacht, the midlands, and some although not all parts of the southeast. The same dry air problem may prevent some of the snow from being very heavy in Leinster, but 7 to 12 cm falls are expected in parts of Connacht and west, south Ulster by mid-day Saturday. The possible range for Leinster may be more like 1 to 5 cm, or even some local trace amounts, but we will keep an eye on this and possibly update amounts for Leinster closer to the time. ... Temperatures tonight will start out near 4 C in the south and west, and could rise slowly there. Readings near -1 to +1 C are likely elsewhere, where snow develops, rising slowly to +2 or +3 C as snow begins to mix with rain. Winds southeast 40 to 60 km/hr except stronger near the south coast at times (southerly 60 to 90 km/hr). About 10-20 mm rainfalls are expected in parts of Kerry, Cork, Waterford and Wexford.

SATURDAY will see the snow, sleet and rain areas all moving further northeast and eventually the wintry forms of precipitation will end leaving the entire country with rain and strong southerly winds 70 to 110 km/hr, and fog will also be rather widespread especially over areas of melting snow. Temperatures will rise to 10-12 C in the south and west, and 7-9 C over snow covered areas leading to a rapid melt. About 20-40 mm rainfalls are expected and some flooding is likely especially where streams are swollen with mountain runoff that may include snow melt.

SUNDAY will be breezy to windy and mild, south winds at 70 to 110 km/hr, temperatures steady 8 to 12 C and some patchy rainfalls that will be heavier in the south and west, where a further 15-30 mm could fall. Any flooding will be maintained or get slightly worse as a result.

The rest of next week looks fairly mild also, with highs between 6 and 10 C on most days, and winds generally south to southwest. There will probably be several intervals of rain with brief dry spells between them.

My local weather on Thursday was sunny and bitterly cold, highs were only around -14 C with a frigid breeze from the north. Lows could fall to around -25 C here overnight. This very cold air now covers just about all of Canada, and the northern half of the U.S. to the east of the Rockies; somewhat milder in the south with outbreaks of snow, sleet and freezing rain along the frontal boundaries which are generally around the latitude of Oklahoma City to Richmond Virginia now. Dallas Fort Worth area in Texas is under an alert for an unusual cold wave after the weekend with snow and record cold temperatures predicted. That's basically the air mass over my part of the world now heading south behind a developing storm system.

Sunday, 14 February, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 14 to 20 Feb 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average 2 deg above normal values.
-- Rainfall will average 25 to 50 per cent above normal.
-- Sunshine will average near normal.


FORECASTS

TODAY will become very windy especially near Atlantic coasts, where south to southwest winds of 70 to 120 km/hr are expected. Strongest wind gusts are expected around noon to 3 p.m. in Connacht and a bit later than that in Donegal, with a risk of coastal flooding at high tides. Elsewhere, 60 to 100 km/hr will be the general range in exposed areas, with 40 to 70 km/hr inland. Quite mild with highs 11-13 C and some outbreaks of rain with variable amounts of cloud that might include some brighter spells. Any high elevation lying snow will melt quickly adding to stream runoff, rainfalls generally 5-10 mm but some places in hilly terrain could see 10-20 mm.

TONIGHT will be breezy and mild with occasional rain, lows 7 to 9 C.

MONDAY will be overcast and mild with moderate southwest winds, 40 to 70 km/hr. There will be a spell of stronger winds by evening and into the overnight hours. Highs near 10 C.

TUESDAY will be overcast with moderate southwest winds again after the overnight gales subside, and rain will become rather persistent with 10-20 mm expected, lows near 6 C and highs near 10 C.

WEDNESDAY will be slightly cooler with occasional showers, highs near 8 C.

THURSDAY will also be a somewhat cooler day with some rain at times, highs near 7 C. Becoming windy by evening with heavy rain likely, temperatures may then rise somewhat.

FRIDAY and SATURDAY are expected to see the arrival of very mild air from the central Atlantic and highs could reach 12 to 14 C, in southwest winds with some rain at times.

The pattern for the following week becomes mild and dry, relatively speaking, with temperatures continuing above normal for the week but rainfall less frequent, some chance of a few really pleasant early spring days (which will be welcome after the spell we've just seen out). Maps are indicating some risk of a colder spell developing at the end of the month into early March.

My local weather on Saturday was overcast although the sun was dimly visible and it was not quite as cold as recent days with a high near -6 C. Some light snow is developing overnight here. An unusually severe wintry blast is hitting Colorado and New Mexico today and will move into Texas overnight, bringing snow and sub-freezing temperatures to places that rarely see such conditions. Freezing rain has left some nasty conditions along parts of the east coast but a slow thaw is likely today and into Monday, then rain from the same storm I mentioned for Texas will arrive with the snow moving further inland up the Appalachian mountain chain.

Tuesday, 16 February, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 16 to 22 Feb 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal values.
-- Rainfall will average 25 to 50 per cent above normal, heaviest west central counties.
-- Sunshine will average near normal to 25 per cent below normal in south and east.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy with scattered showers, becoming more overcast around mid-day. There may be a brief interval of dry weather generally by late afternoon in advance of the next area of rain expected overnight. Winds will subside to more moderate levels and remain southwesterly at about 40 to 60 km/hr. Highs 10 to 12 C.

TONIGHT will bring intervals of moderate rainfall, 5-10 mm expected, lows near 5 C.

WEDNESDAY will see this rainfall ending during the morning, followed by variable cloud and isolated showers, another interval of heavier rain expected by evening. Highs 8 to 10 C in the south but only 5 to 7 C in the north where it will feel quite cold.

THURSDAY will have an early morning rainfall event of 10-20 mm that could mix with sleet over higher ground. Some parts of the western coastal counties may see 20-30 mm rainfalls with this low tracking through central counties overnight. Strong south to southwest winds for a time near the southeast coasts, but these will not affect other regions. Later in the day, partial clearing and rather cool, temperatures steady 4-6 C from overnight into the daytime hours (except 8-10 C briefly in the southeast).

FRIDAY will see another overnight rainfall to start the day and this rain could be quite heavy in places with 30-50 mm potential. Winds becoming strong south to southwest 70-110 km/hr. Temperatures climbing to 10-12 C and staying in that range to about Saturday morning, with the rain still going by then.

SATURDAY will start out wet especially in the east, but the rain will finally end and push east, leaving a partly cloudy day with highs near 9 C.

SUNDAY will have variable cloud, showers, southwest winds 40 to 60 km/hr and highs near 10 C.

The OUTLOOK for next week is for near average conditions to late in the week, then colder weather returning by the end of the month and persisting for several days into March.

My local weather on Monday was overcast with light snow, about 3-5 cm accumulated, and temperatures got slightly milder, reaching -3 C.

Thursday, 18 February, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland


The trends remain on the mild side of normal with frequent rainfalls and limited but near average amounts of sunshine.

A rather vigorous low tracked through Ireland overnight, its effects ranged from snow or sleet in some higher western locations, to strong wind gusts around Dublin and the coastal southeast around 0200h. Tracking another system like this with potential to cause some active weather on Saturday. But before that arrives, a larger scale rain and wind system will move through on Friday morning.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be rather breezy and cool with bands of showery rain and some thundery cells embedded in western counties, where 5-10 mm further rainfalls are expected (2-5 mm elsewhere). Any morning sunshine is likely to fade behind extensive cloud by afternoon, showers will be more isolated at least this morning in eastern counties. Winds southwest 40-70 km/hr, highs near 7 C.

TONIGHT may start out rather chilly especially in parts of Leinster and Ulster with evening lows of 2-5 C but further west milder air will already be arriving and this will rapidly spread east, with heavy rain following on strong southerly winds increasing to 70-110 km/hr by morning. Temperatures will be on the rise after midnight wherever they might be below 5 C, to the 9-10 C range by dawn.

FRIDAY will start out very windy with heavy rain at times, a total of 15-30 mm expected. Conditions will improve slightly for the afternoon with partial clearing in some western counties and rain tapering to showers further east. Highs 10-12 C around mid-day, could fall off slightly in the west after mid-afternoon.

SATURDAY will be breezy to windy and rather mild in the east, as another fast-moving low develops and tracks from south coast to Ulster late in the day. This one might not encounter cold enough air to turn the precipitation over to sleet or snow like last night's low, but there will be a temperature gradient from near 5 C northwest, to 12 C southeast, as the low arrives. This could create a squall line feature and thunderstorms, and strong gusty winds from the south veering to southwest with gusts above 80 km/hr.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy and less windy with moderate temperatures, highs near 9 C.

Around MONDAY-TUESDAY another strong low is expected, probably not until Monday night into Tuesday morning, and that one will also produce strong south to southwest winds and briefly heavy rainfalls. Temperatures will be around 10 C.

The rest of next week looks a bit more settled with some influence of high pressure likely by about Thursday and Friday, when it might turn a bit colder. Low pressure areas are likely to return to the weather picture after that but with cooler air in place, either a chilly rainfall or a sleety mix is possible from these around the last weekend of this month into early March.

My local weather on Wednesday was partly cloudy with some nice sunny intervals, and while we're still in a cool modified arctic air mass, the stronger sun could be felt and it resulted in an afternoon high a little above freezing for a change. The east coast of the U.S. are bracing for a nasty mixture of snow and sleet as mild Gulf air is streaming in over top of an extensive shallow cold air mass trapped under higher pressure; it doesn't look as though this cold layer will be disrupted but temperatures will stay just below freezing and the mixed precipitation will fall mostly as sleet but in some areas as freezing rain (which is a lot more damaging to trees and infrastructure). About 10-20 cm snowfalls are also expected in the opening phases of this mixed event. Parts of Texas are still without electricity after their snow and ice storm earlier this week. Similar conditions may appear in places notably Mississippi, Tennessee, Virginia, North Carolina and Maryland, as the storm moves further east today.

Saturday, 20 February, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 20 to 26 Feb 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average about 2 deg above normal values.
-- Rainfall will average at least 50 per cent above normal values.
-- Sunshine will come in close to average thanks mostly to better prospects for sunshine late in this interval.


FORECASTS

TODAY will become windy with outbreaks of rain, showery at first, then with some rather blustery showers and thunderstorms mainly focused on a cold front that will develop when low pressure arrives from the south by afternoon and reaches Galway, at this point (around 3-4 p.m.) a squall line feature is possible from east Galway through the midlands to the inland southeast, and some heavy showers and thunderstorms with strong wind gusts may develop. Winds in general will be southerly 50 to 80 km/hr veering to southwest 60 to 100 km/hr, but gusts to 110 km/hr are possible near this front along with hail and thunder. Temperatures will be steady around 10 to 12 C ahead of the front, and will drop to around 7 C after it passes. Some west coast locations may see intervals of less windy weather near the time that the low is passing due to its slack gradients near the core. But even so, winds in all areas will increase at some point later in the day when the low has passed by. About 15 to 30 mm rainfalls are possible, heavier amounts expected to be in the south coast counties and near the Atlantic coasts where it may be more of a steady downpour than a showery event.

TONIGHT will be blustery with passing showers, or longer intervals of light rain in some northern areas, a further 5 to 10 mm may fall there, with lows generally about 6 C and winds southwest 40 to 70 km/hr.

SUNDAY will become partly cloudy with showers more isolated in western and northern counties for the most part, and moderate southwest winds in the 40 to 70 km/hr range. Highs will be around 10 C.

MONDAY will start out dry and rather cold after morning lows of 2 to 5 C. For a while it will be relatively calm and bright, then with increasing cloud and southerly winds building in the afternoon, rain will sweep in from the southwest late in the day. Highs will be around 10 C but temperatures will be steady or rising slightly by evening. MONDAY NIGHT will be stormy with 30 to 50 mm rainfall potential in the 24 hours ending late Tuesday, and southerly winds 70 to 110 km/hr.

TUESDAY will continue very windy and wet as the rain continues for much of the day before finally tapering off to showers by evening. Winds continuing south to southwest 70 to 110 km/hr, temperatures in the 10 to 13 C range.

Flooding risks will be considerable by Tuesday morning into the rest of the day due to the persistent moderate to heavy rainfall rates. Another point of interest may be high waves and swells likely to develop as this storm will have had some intense phases while crossing the Atlantic, more so than its intensity near Ireland -- around Sunday night it could be as deep as 940 mbs north of the Azores, but luckily the intense centre weakens and rotates around towards Iceland and keeps away from the Irish coast, although the frontal systems it creates are strong enough to make it appear likely that perhaps orange level two warnings will be required at least in coastal counties.

WEDNESDAY will bring gradual improvements although it will still be somewhat unsettled and breezy with highs around 9 C.

The interval from THURSDAY to SUNDAY ending out this rather active weather month will perhaps be a contrast in terms of more sunshine and less wind than we have seen for quite some time, guidance has begun to come together on the idea of high pressure being fairly close to Ireland in this interval even though there are some signs of weak frontal passages in the westerly flow around the top of the high pressure. This won't be a cold high but nights may get a little cooler due to the clearer skies and lighter winds, while days remain in the near average 8 to 11 C range.

My local weather on Friday here was overcast with temperatures just around freezing, a rather drab looking day that I decided looked better from inside than out. The finishing stages of the east coast storm proved to be fairly tame other than a slight top up to the light snowfalls in New England, but the low has only now begun to form a more intense core and will be steadily deepening over the weekend on its way to the central Atlantic.

Monday, 22 February, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 22 to 28 Feb 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average 2 deg above normal values, although with a trend towards near average later in the interval.
-- Rainfall will average 50 per cent above normal in some parts of the south and west, locally twice normal in parts of Kerry, Cork and possibly also Connemara in Galway, but closer to average in other parts of the country.
-- Sunshine will average near normal to 25 per cent above normal thanks to a brighter trend later in this week.


FORECASTS

TODAY will start out cool and bright with gradually increasing cloud and a rising southerly wind not becoming too noticeable until afternoon. Highs will be 8 to 10 C.

TONIGHT will become windy with outbreaks of rain becoming heavy at times in the southwest and later in other parts of the south and west generally, 20 to 40 mm potential with southerly winds 70 to 110 km/hr in exposed locations and 50 to 80 km/hr more generally. Temperatures steady 10 to 12 C.

TUESDAY will see further outbreaks of rain and strong south to southwest winds gradually easing slightly by afternoon, after starting out in the 70 to 110 km/hr range. Highs 12 to 14 C. A further 10 to 30 mm of rain is possible and by morning there could be ongoing flood problems in heavy rainfall zones, notably around south Kerry and southwest Cork hilly terrain and streams draining that region.

WEDNESDAY will be showery with more moderate southwest winds of 40 to 70 km/hr, lows near 4 C and highs near 10 C.

THURSDAY will become partly cloudy to sunny with only a few isolated showers left, lows near 2 C and highs 8 to 11 degrees.

From FRIDAY to SUNDAY high pressure will be nearby and it should be dry in most areas except for some occasional light rain reaching the west coast from dying out frontal systems, even those might not produce much more than traces of rain. Highs each day in this dry spell around 9 to 11 C and lows -2 to +2 C. It should be at least partly sunny and there's some chance of longer intervals of sunshine especially over the southeast and east.

This high may eventually reposition somewhat further north and drag in some slightly colder surface layers so that temperatures may stall out around 8 to 10 C for a while once March begins, but guidance is flopping around quite a bit for March at this point and there have been some model runs that look quite warm replacing those colder looks we were seeing a while ago. The flow pattern has begun to return to more normal "zonal" flow patterns now that the last stages of that stratospheric warming event are dying out.

My local weather was cloudy with highs near -1 C. Texas, Oklahoma and Louisiana have come out of the deep freeze although it is still quite a bit colder than average there with some snow left in places.

Wednesday, 24 February, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 24 Feb to 2 Mar 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average near normal values (which at this point are around 10-11 C daytimes, 3-4 C overnight).
-- Rainfall will average about 50% of normal, and most of that will be today and tomorrow with a welcome dry spell looming for the rest of this seven day interval (not totally dry in the west where small amounts could fall on a couple of days).
-- Sunshine will be at least normal and possibly as much as 50% above in some places, away from what may be cloudier south coast counties.


FORECASTS

TODAY will see some additional rainfall, mainly in the southern third of the country and possibly at times in central counties, but amounts should be less prolific than recently, at around 5-15 mm. There will be a slow clearing trend from the west but its progress will be minimal beyond central Connacht to northwest Munster. With the partial clearing some sunny breaks are likely with patchy marine layer clouds moving in. Highs 10 to 12 C.

TONIGHT will see partial clearing and lows 2 to 5 C. There may still be isolated outbreaks of light rain in a few spots.

THURSDAY will be breezy and somewhat colder with highs 8-10 C. A few passing showers are likely in most places and they may be locally and briefly heavy in the west to central counties. Winds westerly 40 to 70 km/hr.

FRIDAY will become much less breezy and it should be a pleasant day with near average temperatures of 2-4 C in the morning and 8-11 C in the afternoon. Some sunshine is likely but a very weak front will be dying out near the west coast by afternoon and could bring at least full cloud cover for a time if not a bit of drizzly light rain.

SATURDAY and SUNDAY look settled and partly cloudy, highs both days near 10 C after morning slight frosts in some areas, and more sunshine is likely further north as a weak southeast breeze may be bringing in cloud layers from the Celtic Sea originating from a weak disturbance embedded in the high pressure area over northwest France. That weak system may eventually drift up over west Munster by Monday with local showers, otherwise this high should hold on to control of the weather pattern for a few days into March before a more variable pattern emerges. Some guidance is back to showing a cold outbreak towards the second week of March, what I take from that is that very warm weather is probably not the most likely next step after the high, would bet that it stays fairly bland and near normal for a while as the flow over North America is somewhat neutral in terms of firing up the jet stream.

My local weather on Tuesday was relatively pleasant with some sunny intervals, shower formations over the local mountains dropping snow pellets on higher terrain but it played out as virga down in the valley where I happened to be at the time, also it was a bit milder down there at 9 C, up here it was probably closer to 4 C. There is a 500m elevation difference so this is fairly normal especially in unsettled weather patterns with stronger "lapse rates."

Friday, 26 February, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland


The coming week will feature dry weather for most areas with small amounts of rain tonight and possibly around Tuesday of next week, but not amounting to more than 2-4 mm in either case; temperatures will be fairly close to seasonal averages and sunshine also likely to total about the normal amounts with high pressure somewhat tainted by patchy cloud, however there is potential for some places to see better than average sunshine, and the most significant detail may be generally light winds -- it should be a reasonably good period for drying which is badly needed in most areas.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be sunny with increasing afternoon cloud, with scattered outbreaks of light rain arriving on the west coast by late afternoon to evening. Highs 10 to 12 C.

TONIGHT the patchy light rain will tend to die out over central counties and parts of the east could remain almost dry with just trace amounts, lows will range from 3 C in the east to 7 C near the west coast.

SATURDAY any morning cloud or patchy drizzle should clear before mid-day and sunshine may develop across most areas in the afternoon, highs near 10 C.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy with patchy morning frosts, lows -2 to +3 C, and highs near 9 C.

MONDAY will be partly cloudy with lows near 2 C and highs near 9 C.

TUESDAY will be partly to mostly cloudy with isolated showers, lows near 4 C and highs near 10 C.

The rather bland weather pattern will slowly break down later in the week and it will become more active in the second week of March, details keep changing and we may not get a very clear picture of trends for temperature until middle of next week (for the second week) but it does occasionally appear rather windy with rain returning to the forecast.

My local weather on Friday started out with a fairly heavy snowfall of about 10-12 cms that ended before mid-day but it then remained cloudy with a few flurries not adding any significant new accumulations; temperatures were a bit below freezing and are heading down this evening to overnight lows near -8 C. Another much weaker arctic air mass has pushed down across most of western Canada but it only has temperatures that are slightly below normal this time, and poses no real threat to the deep south as it's likely to stall over the central plains.

Sunday, 28 February, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 28 Feb to 6 Mar 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average near or slightly below normal values.
-- Rainfalls will amount to 10 to 20 per cent of normal.
-- Sunshine will be near average although rather variable from region to region.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy to sunny, and with light winds it should feel relatively mild despite only average late February temperatures around 10 C.

TONIGHT will see more clear skies in some places leading to local frosts and fog patches, lows -2 to +3 C.

MONDAY will bring a mixture of cloud and sunshine, still rather calm, with highs 9 to 12 C.

TUESDAY will become partly cloudy to overcast, with lows 2-4 C and highs 10-12 C.

WEDNESDAY may have a few light showers in a weak frontal passage as slightly colder air pushes in from the north to replace what's left of our current high pressure area. Lows near 4 C and highs 8 to 11 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will feel a bit of the chill from the new high having pushed down into Britain from around Iceland -- the dynamics are weak so this may sound worse than it will actually play out, just a slight drop in temperatures for Ireland and even over in Scotland more directly affected it will stay above freezing. In Ireland highs will be 7 to 10 C and slight frosts will be more widespread than earlier in the week.

This colder weather pattern will begin to become a bit more unsettled over the weekend of 6-7 March although rainfall amounts are expected to be slight, with little change in temperatures. Later on, the second week of March looks fairly unsettled and with the colder air still hanging around, these Atlantic lows are going to find it difficult to raise temperatures much past 7 or 8 C even in coastal areas, so that there could be some sleety mixtures at times on higher ground inland.

My local weather on Saturday was sunny and with highs around 4 C there was a continued slow melting of lying snow and ice turning to slush, although in shady areas because of low dewpoints it remains quite wintry. At this elevation we don't tend to get a very fast snow melt during March, it partly melts and partly sublimates until most is gone, then what's left is quickly consumed by April rainfalls. Down lower in the local valleys, snow is usually gone by the middle of March.

Tuesday, 2 March, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 2 to 8 March 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg below normal values, coldest around Friday.
-- Rainfall will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal, most of it expected after Sunday.
-- Sunshine will average near normal for early March (about three hours a day).


FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy to sunny once any fog or low cloud dissipate, although some of that could be persistent near coasts (east and south). Rather mild in the west, chilly in the east. Highs 8 to 12 C.

TONIGHT will see an increase in cloud preventing a lot of frost from returning, low cloud is more likely and lows will be 2 to 5 C.

WEDNESDAY will be cloudy with some sunny breaks, cool, with risk of showers in parts of the east, highs 8 to 11 C.

THURSDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast, chilly, with northeast breezes, isolated showers, lows near 3 C and highs 7 to 10 C.

FRIDAY will be partly cloudy and cold with isolated showers, possibly sleety on hills, lows near 3 C and highs near 7 except 9-10 C in the southwest.

SATURDAY will be partly cloudy and slightly milder with isolated showers, highs near 10 C.

SUNDAY will become overcast with outbreaks of light rain possible, more breezy than the rest of this week, with highs 10 to 12 C.

MONDAY into TUESDAY, an Atlantic disturbance is expected and it could be fairly strong with locally heavy rainfalls and strong winds, staying rather cold with temperatures 7 to 9 C, winds westerly at least 50 to 80 km/hr during the period.

The outlook is rather wintry, after that disturbance passes another one may travel further south and turn winds around to the east with quite cold air left over from this week's arctic air mass over Britain, and while that phase will not have a direct impact in Ireland, next week it's possible that we might see mixed forms of precipitation or a cold rain with east winds (most likely mid-week around 9th-10th) followed by a rather mobile Atlantic pattern that might eventually start mixing in warmer air masses later in the month.

My local weather on Monday was overcast and rather foggy over the hills due to a low cloud ceiling just above our elevation, highs near 3 C.

Thursday, 4 March, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 4 to 10 March 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall will gradually edge up later in the period towards a total around 75 per cent of normal.
-- Sunshine will be rather limited at best, 50 per cent of normal might be the best of it.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with a few brighter intervals in the southwest, patchy light drizzly showers giving 1-2 mm totals in a few places. Moderate east to northeast winds at times, chilly with highs only 6 to 9 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy and cold with lows -1 to +3 C. Some isolated and possibly sleety showers most likely in Ulster, Connacht and north Leinster.

FRIDAY will be partly cloudy with cool easterly breezes at times, highs 7 to 10 C.

SATURDAY will be cloudy with a few brighter intervals, and occasional light rain perhaps more persistent in the west, lows -1 to +3 C and highs 7 to 10 C.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy, breezy with passing showers, winds southwest 40 to 70 km/hr, highs near 11 C.

MONDAY will likely start off wet as a front passes, then turn more partly cloudy by afternoon, highs near 11 C. Winds becoming westerly 50 to 80 km/hr.

TUESDAY will be windy with outbreaks of rain (5-15 mm potential), winds southwest 60 to 90 km/hr, highs near 12 C.

WEDNESDAY into THURSDAY still presents a bit of a challenge for the models as a second low is expected but its track is not confirmed, could be through parts of the south-central counties or off the south coast, which will determine to some extent whether it has any potential to become wintry for a brief interval around Thursday morning, but temperatures will be at best around 7 or 8 C and a more certain outcome towards the end is that strong west to northwest winds will sweep in behind the low on whatever track it takes, lasting into FRIDAY and bringing temperatures in the 5-8 C range, so feeling quite raw in strong winds reaching 70-100 km/hr at times.

This stretch of rather inclement weather will then be replaced by much nicer weather conditions towards the weekend of the 13th-14th and into the following week, with high pressure returning to a dominant position just about over top of Ireland and somewhat warmer in general with highs into the 12-15 C range likely.

My local weather on Wednesday was sunny and very mild with highs near 14 C, which has the snow rapidly melting away, at least where the sun can reach it, and it appears likely to remain quite mild here for another week or so, leading me to look around for valley locations where golf courses might open up (that won't happen up here until first week of May as the local course still has over 30 cms cover).

Saturday, 6 March, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS remain similar, cool, likely to become quite unsettled with at least normal amounts of rain, and mostly cloudy through the interval.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy with outbreaks of light rain or drizzle mainly near the west coast, 1-3 mm possible there, and staying rather cool with highs 8-10 C.

TONIGHT could see a few breaks in the overcast allowing frost to develop briefly (as it did last night before cloud moved in to end the frost). Lows -2 to +3 C.

SUNDAY will be cloudy with sunny breaks and isolated showers, highs 9-11 C.

MONDAY will be partly cloudy after an interval of light rain in the early morning hours to mid-morning possibly on the east coast, lows near 4 C and highs near 10 C.

TUESDAY will become rather windy and wet with southwest winds 70 to 100 km/hr in exposed areas, lows near 4 C and highs near 10 C.

WEDNESDAY will be windy and could become very windy for a time around the evening hours, winds southwest at least 70-110 km/hr, possibly some higher gusts on the west coast, 10-20 mm rainfalls, and highs near 11 C.

THURSDAY will continue breezy to windy with passing showers and highs near 9 C.

FRIDAY and SATURDAY are looking cool, cloudy and unsettled with highs 9 to 11 C.

That nicer spell of weather that had been rudely yanked off the table yesterday is now back with high pressure looking more likely to dominate for a few days in the following week. Hopefully this is the only flip-flop we will have before this becomes more of a confirmed trend. Temperatures look like they could recover to mid-teens during this better spell of weather around mid-month.

My local weather on Friday remained mild but with a thicker overcast the high only reached 7 C. The works crews around here are starting to turn their attention to clearing drains and removing snowbanks that might lead to ponding, so that's a good sign, watching for the first robins now.

Monday, 8 March, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 8 to 14 March 2021

-- Temperatures will average near normal values.
-- Rainfall will approach normal values too, with the usual regional differences.
-- Sunshine will likely be rather limited to perhaps 50 per cent of normal although a few parts of the east and south may run closer to normal values.
-- After several almost calm days, this will be a much breezier week, at times windy.

FORECASTS


TODAY will be cloudy with sunny breaks and isolated showers. Highs 9 to 12 C.

TONIGHT some rain at times near the west coast making limited progress further east, overcast, milder with lows around 6 C.

TUESDAY will be mostly cloudy with outbreaks of rain becoming heavier during the afternoon and evening, winds becoming moderate southwest 40 to 70 km/hr. Lows near 4 C and highs near 11 C.

WEDNESDAY will be a blustery day with variable amounts of cloud, some passing showers at first, with a frontal band of heavy showers and thunderstorms by afternoon, and the risk of some strong winds developing by afternoon lasting into the overnight hours. Lows near 7 C and highs 12 to 14 C. The low responsible is rapidly developing northeast of Bermuda at this time. Strong southwest winds are expected with its passage on Wednesday afternoon to overnight, that could peak at 80-120 km/hr especially in more exposed Atlantic counties. Large waves and swells are likely on the west coast. Galway Bay may see localized shoreline flooding around high tides.

THURSDAY then looks quite windy too but cold with temperatures falling back to the 5-7 C range, strong west to northwest winds 70-100 km/hr, and passing squally and, in some higher parts of the north, wintry showers.

FRIDAY will be somewhat improved but still rather cloudy and unsettled, highs near 10 C.

The current outlook for the weekend of 13th-14th is for frequent showers and rather cool temperatures, but a nicer spell of weather would quickly build in around Monday 15th and last much of the following week with highs pushing up into the 13-16 C range.

My local weather turned somewhat colder on Sunday with a bit of snow in the morning, drizzle and low cloud later on and highs only around 3 C. Eastern regions of North America are warming rapidly in a southwest flow and will have an early taste of spring this week with highs 14 to 18 C along the east coast, into the 20s further south. This warm air is being drawn up from the Gulf of Mexico as low pressure develops today over the northern plains states heading for northern Ontario. This is the same impulse that I expect will ripple along in the progressive wave features at upper levels to set up a warmer spell for Ireland in about a week. Until then, the Atlantic has an open door to a series of increasingly vigorous storms, followed by a sort of mirror image dampening down later on in the week until the series is played out, then high pressure should build up close to Ireland, keeping an eye on one minor problem with this, some guidance has the high a bit further west than is ideal so it could be trying to promote a chilly northerly breeze at least for the first day or two. The best of this weather could be right around the 17th.

Wednesday, 10 March, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland


(blog format today) ...

A powerful Atlantic storm peaked in intensity over the west-central Atlantic yesterday but will only be slightly less intense when it slams into western Ireland later today. Currently located at about 51N 28W, this low will be absorbed by another east of Iceland towards the end of the day, but its strong gradient winds will already be hitting Ireland during that process. Frontal troughs have formed out ahead of the storm and the first of these is already bringing some heavy showers to the east coast. Another one will move into the west soon and make steady progress east, then several more bands of showers and possibly thunderstorms will follow. Winds are fairly sedate now after peaking with a preliminary disturbance last evening. They will ramp up gradually during the mid-day hours and begin to approach warning criteria by late afternoon, staying strong all evening and only moderating slightly after midnight.

Temperatures will rise fairly steadily as this storm has tapped into subtropical air from north of the Azores and that is streaming in on southwest winds due to reach 70-110 km/hr later on. Highs of 13 to 15 C are likely, quite a bit milder than recent days. Some potential for gusts to 130 km/hr in a few exposed locations this evening, but perhaps a more potent hazard will be storm surge into Galway Bay and battering waves in other west-facing coastal areas, as ships were reporting waves out in the mid-ocean of ten metres. The timing of any coastal flooding around Galway would most likely be midnight to 0300h as there's a natural high tide at 0258h that will probably be enhanced a bit earlier than scheduled by the peak storm winds around midnight.

Rainfall amounts are not expected to be excessive but there could be some brief heavy downpours and amounts for most places should be in the 10-20 mm range.

Overnight the winds will veer more to due west which is why I am concerned about Galway Bay having shoreline flooding issues. They will slowly moderate slightly at least back down to 50-80 km/hr by morning. It will turn a bit colder after midnight with a morning temperature around 4 to 6 C in strong westerly winds. Passing squally showers will continue and some might become a bit sleety on higher ground with the freezing level coming down in an airstream that originated in the east Greenland Sea. However, another weak impulse travelling along in the strong westerlies will then arrive later Thursday and an interval of steady rain might be the result with a brief resurgence of stronger wind gusts. Friday sees another similar cycle with temperatures steady around 8 C and further rainfalls both days of about 5-8 mm. New moon is on Saturday so tides will be running fairly high all week with this sustained westerly flow, however the subsequent ones will probably stay below the levels achieved tonight.

By Saturday yet another weak disturbance is due with another round of showers and blustery westerly winds, temperatures near 7 or 8 C. Sunday sees the start of a milder trend that will be somewhat unsettled at first, until high pressure from the central Atlantic can build in close enough to dry out the flow by about Tuesday. So Sunday and Monday may both have a fair amount of cloud, showers or drizzle, and highs near 12 C. From Tuesday to about Friday it looks dry and perhaps mostly sunny with high pressure drifting in almost overhead by late in the week. Highs could edge up towards 15 C in bright sunshine but nights will continue to be rather chilly under the clear skies, and local fog patches are possible.

The further evolution of this high seems likely to take it a bit further north to begin a weak easterly flow at the surface levels over most of Britain and Ireland, but it may not turn that much cooler except for onshore sea breeze cooling in Leinster, so would suggest by the following weekend highs might have fallen back to 8-11 C there and remain 12-14 C in parts of the west. This wouldn't have to change too much to become like a notable warm spell under high pressure in March of 2012. But that may be a bridge too far for this pattern, eventually it looks like a rather variable regime will return with weak frontal systems, and transient highs peaking for a day or two, to provide a fairly average sort of outcome for the last third of March.

My local weather on Tuesday was hazy sunshine and mild temperatures near 7 C. There are weak troughs moving by with cloud and virga at times but nothing reaching the ground during the past day. New York City had its warmest day of the spring so far at 18 C.

Friday, 12 March, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 12 to 18 March 2021

-- Temperatures will average slightly below normal, getting a bit warmer at least for daytime readings towards end of this interval.
-- Rainfall will begin to fade out of the picture after Sunday, so totals may come in around 50 to 75 per cent of normal.
-- Sunshine will begin to improve at the same time, the results should be almost normal amounts but the interval will start out well below that.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be blustery with further showers of rain, hail and sleet, some thunder in places, and longer or steadier rain towards late afternoon and evening. Winds southwest 40 to 70 km/hr, except 70 to 110 km/hr in exposed Atlantic coastal counties, and highs 8 to 10 C. Rainfalls about 5-10 mm.

TONIGHT will be partly to mostly cloudy with showers, moderate westerly winds 40 to 70 km/hr, lows 2 to 5 C.

SATURDAY will be breezy, cool with passing showers, some with hail and thunder, winds west to northwest 50 to 80 km/hr, some higher gusts near west coast, and highs 7 to 9 C.

SUNDAY will turn somewhat milder, with some fog or mist at times, patchy light rain or drizzle, lows near 4 C and highs near 11 C. Less windy although some gusts to 50 km/hr from westerly breezes.

MONDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast, with a rather weak frontal band pushing through northern and some inland western counties, reaching the east coast late in the day in an even weaker condition, highs near 12 C.

TUESDAY will be sunny with cloudy intervals, lows 2 to 5 C and highs 12 to 15 C.

WEDNESDAY will be sunny with cloudy intervals, after some patchy morning fog and frost, lows -1 to +3 C and highs 13 to 16 C, warmest in the inland southwest and west.

By THURSDAY there will be the start of a cooling trend again as the high pressure area responsible for the improved weather edges further north and allows light northeast winds to develop. This could cool Leinster and east Ulster to around 8-10 C while keeping some counties further west milder at 12 to 15 C still. However, by FRIDAY and SATURDAY a more organized push of cooler air from the east will bring down temperatures to the 7-9 C level in all regions, with slight frosts likely at night. This cooler regime looks like it may dominate the following week too, with a slightly more unsettled theme as the high moves away further and weakens, allowing a more variable regime but mainly northerly to easterly flow during that, rather than a resumption of Atlantic dominated flow; that may follow eventually.

My local weather on Thursday was sunny and quite cold until mid-day when it finally edged above freezing, with rather light winds it felt warmer than the air temperature which was around 2-4 C. This colder spell has kept our dwindling snow pack from being further reduced and it remains about 30-40 cms in shaded areas, out in the sun it is just evaporating into the dry air slowly. The mild spell in eastern regions is being ended by a large outbreak of arctic air pushing south from central Canada and the weekend will be a lot colder than this past week with outbreaks of rain or sleet along frontal zones setting up over the Ohio valley and central plains states.

Sunday, 14 March, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 14 to 20 March 2021

-- Temperatures will average slightly below normal, this due more to cold nights than daytime readings which should average right around long-term normal values.
-- Rainfalls will average 25 per cent of normal, and will be pretty much done by late Monday.
-- Sunshine will average near normal to slightly above normal values.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be overcast in most regions with outbreaks of light rain or drizzle, and moderate westerly breezes. Any sunshine this morning in Leinster and east Munster will probably fade behind increasing cloud mid-day when those other conditions will also arrive. Highs 10 to 12 C.

TONIGHT will be misty or overcast but rather mild with lows near 6 C, and patchy light rain or drizzle will continue.

MONDAY will become partly cloudy in most regions, with some scattered showers developing mainly around the northern coasts and hills, but at times more widespread too, highs near 14 C.

TUESDAY will be sunny with cloudy intervals and isolated showers, lows near 4 C and highs near 14 C.

WEDNESDAY will be sunny, hazy and mild in most areas, but cooling sea breezes might set in due to the slack wind gradients inland. Morning lows could be a touch frosty in some inland areas, lows -1 to +4 C, then highs will be generally in the range of 13 to 16 C, possibly held down to near 10 C near some coasts.

THURSDAY will also be partly cloudy, hazy and still rather mild in the west and some parts of the inland south, but cooler sea breezes will make more substantial progress inland, so with a similar temperature regime but the cooler coastal air more widespread, highs will continue around 12 to 15 C in some areas, 8 to 11 C where sea breezes dominate.

FRIDAY and SATURDAY will see this regime continuing, perhaps with slight variations in temperature but while it turns substantially colder in some parts of Britain, it looks like Ireland might hold on to more moderate temperatures as the track of this colder air seems to be directed more towards France in northeast breezes. So would expect it to stay partly cloudy, possibly more overcast due to more dominant sea breeze influences, and with temperatures still largely above 10 C in many areas, to around 7-9 C in stronger sea breezes.

The longer term outlook is not very "high confidence" with this stagnant high appearing destined to drift around in the general vicinity for perhaps another week or so. It could at some point drift far enough west to let in some colder air, but then it could drift far enough south to let in milder flows from the south. The main aspect of the forecast that we can perhaps underline as most likely is dry weather, and rather chilly nights in general, so that spring blooming is likely to be rather slow to develop even if some of the days are reasonably mild. This pattern could begin to break down to a more active Atlantic regime at some point near the end of the following week. Highs in the week of the 21st to 27th most likely to remain in the 10-13 C range but with some chance of drifting a bit higher at times.

My local weather on Saturday was pleasant, sunshine filtered by high clouds most of the day, a few intervals of brighter sunshine, and highs near 12 C. It kept up the gradual disappearing snow trends, mostly through evaporation (sublimation). There is very little water running off the snow packs although just enough to say that a small amount is melting too. At this rate, about two weeks from now all that would be left of our winter snowpack would be the remnants of plow activity and snow in the back country. Models are showing that kind of weather pattern for us, with a cut off low down over Colorado bringing heavy snows well to the south of here. It has recently turned much colder in eastern regions at least north of about Atlanta, Florida remains in a benign warm air mass as evidenced by the golf coverage from Jacksonville.

Tuesday, 16 March, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS continue dry, with near normal temperatures and sunshine, although rather warm at first.

FORECASTS

TODAY will see gradual clearing of fog and mist, although it may be rather a slow clearing trend in some areas near the south coast. Warming to around 15 or 16 C where the sun does win out, highs 10 to 12 C in any onshore or persistent coastal cloud.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy to clear, with fog and frost developing in a few spots, lows -2 to +4 C.

WEDNESDAY (17th) will be hazy, sunny except for some areas of persistent low cloud near a few coastlines, and warm inland. Highs 14 to 17 C except held down to 10-12 C under any cloud.

THURSDAY will likely see a similar day in some parts of the inland counties, but more extensive coastal cloud seems likely, with both the north and east coasts prone to cooling sea breezes and onshore low cloud. Morning lows around 1 to 4 C, highs 10 to 13 C under cloud, 13 to 15 C where cloud breaks.

FRIDAY to SUNDAY will see little change to this pattern with perhaps a bit more sunshine by the weekend than on Friday, highs in the same temperature range dependent on cloud cover. It will continue to be more likely that coastal areas will see more persistent cloud and cooler temperatures than well inland.

This pattern may be slow to break down next week, but eventually there should be a return to more mobile weather patterns, rather warm at that time since the flow may turn more southwesterly.

My local weather on Monday was overcast with a few brighter spells by afternoon although cloud never totally broke up, as we entered a slightly cooler air mass after a dry frontal passage overnight, highs reaching about 8 C. It now looks as though the eastern U.S. will have one last gasp of wintry weather later this week now that much colder air has invaded the region, a low will try to push that away but snow or sleet seems likely to be the result.

Thursday, 18 March, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 18 to 24 March 2021

-- Temperatures will average near normal values.
-- Rainfall may amount to 25 per cent of normal, mainly towards end of the interval.
-- Sunshine will average 75 per cent of normal values, but with considerable variation place to place.


FORECASTS

TODAY will start out with widespread mist and low cloud. Some areas may brighten around late morning or mid-day and warm up again to 13-15 C, places that remain under cloud will have temperatures closer to 11-12 C.

TONIGHT will be misty with lows generally 4 to 7 C.

FRIDAY will bring a mixture of cloud and brighter spells although full sunshine will be restricted to a few locations in the inland south possibly. Highs in a similar range to today depending on any sunshine.

SATURDAY will become more partly cloudy and highs will reach 12 to 15 C.

SUNDAY looks partly cloudy also, with late afternoon or evening showers approaching Atlantic coastal counties, but only small amounts of rain overnight into early Monday. Highs on Sunday around 12 to 15 C.

MONDAY will be partly cloudy with showers (amounts generally only 1-3 mm) and highs 12 to 15 C.

TUESDAY could be a bit warmer in a stronger south to southwest flow, highs 13 to 17 C.

WEDNESDAY looks like a transition to more active weather with intervals of light rain and highs near 14 C.

From THURSDAY to end of the month, rather unsettled weather will take over and rain will likely return in more significant amounts, although nothing overly heavy is indicated at this point.

My local weather on Wednesday featured sunshine slowly dimmed by increasing high cloud, and highs around 10 C.
We were down in the valley for a while where there's no snow left at all, about half way up to this location, just patchy snow cover, up here still 20-30 cm of dry, crusty snow that has become rather icy but they say it's still good ski-ing in the alpine above our location.

Saturday, 20 March, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 20 to 26 March 2021

-- Temperatures will average near or slightly above normal values.
-- Rainfall will resume in gradual increments later in the period but won't amount to much more than half of normal, possibly less for eastern and southern counties.
-- Sunshine will likely work out near average overall, with a tendency for higher amounts in the east.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be similar to the past few days in most areas, some sunny breaks will develop in the east and south mainly, with highs 13 to 15 C there, and it will stay more overcast near the west coast and across parts of the north with highs 10 to 12 C. Winds will continue light northerly with onshore sea breezes in some areas.

TONIGHT will be overcast with lows 4 to 7 C.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy again with some decent sunny intervals likely in the east and south, highs in a similar range to today, 13-15 C where bright and 10-12 C under dull cloudy skies.

MONDAY will present very little change, a disturbance moving past the northwest coast now looks less likely to have much influence on land other than perhaps in a few parts of Connacht, where one or two showers may develop. So it will be another day of mixed cloud and sunshine with highs 12 to 14 C.

TUESDAY the slack wind gradient comes to an end and south to southwest winds 40 to 70 km/hr will develop. There could be some sunshine in the southeast but cloud will probably increase in most areas and rain could follow near the west coast, albeit rather light (2-5 mm). Highs 13 to 17 C.

WEDNESDAY will have variable amounts of cloud and a few intervals of light rain as fronts redevelop, highs 12 to 15 degrees.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY look rather cool by comparison with strong westerly winds at times, and outbreaks of rain, highs around 10 C.

By SATURDAY 28th it will become quite windy as a stronger Atlantic storm system passes close to the west coast, winds could increase to the 50-80 km/hr range if not higher, with rain and highs near 14 C. This system will pull away slowly on Sunday 29th when it will remain windy with showers and highs near 11 C.

The following week leading up to Easter weekend looks fairly settled with high pressure returning and eventually turning winds more to an easterly direction. That may be followed by a more unsettled theme closer to the Easter weekend but at that time range a different trend may be in the works before long.

My local weather on Friday turned a bit cooler with passing snow showers despite temperatures close to 8 C in partly cloudy spells, but when the snow showers moved through the temperature fell several degrees with swirling winds blowing the snow pellets and road grit (which is widespread after our winter) in an odd combination, sort of a dappled duststorm.

Sunday, 21 March, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 21 to 27 March 2021

-- Temperatures will remain near normal values, somewhat colder than average at times late in the week though.
-- Rainfall will gradually increase to about half of normal values, possibly up to 75% near Atlantic coasts.
-- Sunshine will average about 75% of normal values (by now, normal is close to four hours a day).

FORECASTS

TODAY will bring another mixture of cloud and brighter spells with highs reaching 12 to 15 C. There are a few very light rain showers around this morning but no significant amounts are expected to fall.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy to overcast with drizzle near west coast at times, lows 4 to 7 C.

MONDAY will be partly cloudy east, to overcast west, with a few light showers there. Highs 13 to 15 C.

TUESDAY will become more breezy with intervals of rain developing near Atlantic coasts, spreading further east overnight. Lows near 7 C and highs near 14 C. Winds increasing to south-southwest 40 to 70 km/hr.

WEDNESDAY will be cloudy with a few brighter intervals and passing showers, fresh west-southwest winds of about 50 to 70 km/hr, and highs near 14 C.

THURSDAY will become windy and rather cold with widespread showers turning sleety on hills and temperatures dropping from mid-day readings around 8 C to late afternoon and evening temperatures near 4 C.

FRIDAY will remain windy and cold, winds westerly 70 to 100 km/hr and passing sleety or wintry showers possible, some snow accumulations possible on northern hilly terrain. Lows 2 to 4 C and highs 5 to 9 C.

SATURDAY seems likely to remain windy but turn milder with rain at times, winds southwest 70 to 110 km/hr, and highs near 14 C.

SUNDAY will have westerly winds remaining blustery and temperatures around 10 C.

The following week looks variable in a continuing active Atlantic driven southwest to west flow, temperatures sometimes dropping back to lower levels when winds turn more northwesterly.

My local weather on Saturday was colder than we have had for several weeks, highs barely above freezing and passing showers of snow pellets with gusty winds at times.

The spring equinox has already passed, in case you were wondering, it happened on Saturday at 0937h IST.