Weds 13th / Thurs 14th Nov 2019: Rainfall warning with Snow and spot flood risk

KingdomRushed · 12-11-2019 11:41am

Looking at the latest HIRLAM projections, the flood potential from tomorrow's rain bands has downgraded to near nothing. For instance, there is now only 2-5mm of rain forecast for Dublin for Wednesday into Thursday. This was more like 25-30mm being forecast earlier in the week.

I would say the tomorrow will not amount to much.

Graces7 · 12-11-2019 3:29pm

Just looked at met/ie and the new forecasts are scattered with words like sleet...

pauldry · 12-11-2019 4:34pm

Even saw white gold mentioned in Munster?

Captain Snow · 12-11-2019 4:59pm

Todays 12zz.

Possible short Lived WET Snow event for some. Higher Ground will do better.

18.00

21.00

SleetAndSnow · 12-11-2019 5:52pm

Cork is always in that smidgen of blue

. Ah well, its cold here and feels wintery today with a sort of hazy fog and clearish sky. Fells/looks nice.

Naggdefy · 12-11-2019 6:03pm

Nice to see the red snow marked charts for 13 November

Hopefully a long, cold winter:) I know I'm a turkey wishing for Christmas with bad roads, extra heating etc. But the child in me comes to the fore.

I remember November 1991 in boarding school being like this. Unfortunately it was a mild winter after. November 1996 also. It had a cold December and snow from NYE til 10th January. A forgotten decent cold spell, early January 1997.

I'm pretty sure November 1981 was cold. December definitely was. We all know what happened in January 1982.

Periscal · 12-11-2019 6:03pm

Some encouraging news(Arome 12Z) but only a temporary situation, if you want to see something white head for west Wicklow, have a pint in Blessington and enjoy maybe 3 to 5cm o wet snow

typhoony · 12-11-2019 6:31pm

seen these marginal situations before, usually when the front pivots and heads south we get a short period of wet snow maybe lasting 30 minutes on lower ground, an hour on higher ground and settling there, clearing over night to leave a crisp cold day

Gonzo · 12-11-2019 6:43pm

looks mostly a rain event with marginal sleet or snow as it clears to the south later in the day. High ground mostly at risk in Wicklow, Carlow, Kilkenny and maybe parts of north Cork.

Arpege:
arpegeuk-1-34-0.png?12-17

GFS not as over the top with the snow potential:
33-574UK.GIF?12-12

Hirlam has a bit more snow on it and further north.

hirlamuk-1-30-0.png?12-17

spookwoman · 12-11-2019 7:17pm

Hopefully it covers the comeraghs

catrat12 · 12-11-2019 7:22pm

Will Dublin mountains see anything

Captain Snow · 12-11-2019 7:44pm

catrat12 wrote: »

Will Dublin mountains see anything

Tops of 2 and 3 Rock. Around the Hellfire and Kilikee Road. Kippure Mountain Area. Sallys Gap. Into Wicklow higher ground.

Meteorite58 · 12-11-2019 7:49pm

ECM showing a big dump of snow in Wicklow as the Low pivots and the front moves back down the country . A basic map below but can be a useful guide, could also get a wintry mix of sleet or perhaps some snow for a time in parts of Dublin, Kildare, perhaps Carlow and maybe parts of Wexford , Laois and Kilkenny.

Meteorite58 · 12-11-2019 7:51pm

Translates to a lot of water over 24 hrs according to the ECM

catrat12 · 12-11-2019 7:58pm

Captain Snow wrote: »

Tops of 2 and 3 Rock. Around the Hellfire and Kilikee Road. Kippure Mountain Area. Sallys Gap. Into Wicklow higher ground.

So nothing really for Glencullen

Captain Snow · 12-11-2019 8:16pm

catrat12 wrote: »

So nothing really for Glencullen

It's high enough. You could see some Snow.

catrat12 · 12-11-2019 8:20pm

Captain Snow wrote: »

It's high enough. You could see some Snow.

Hopefully we all get some

Kutebride · 12-11-2019 8:23pm

Meteorite58 wrote: »

ECM showing a big dump of snow in Wicklow as the Low pivots and the front moves back down the country . A basic map below but can be a useful guide, could also get a wintry mix of sleet or perhaps some snow for a time in parts of Dublin, Kildare, perhaps Carlow and maybe parts of Wexford , Laois and Kilkenny.

The poor in laws ðŸ˜¬ no like the snow

Meteorite58 · 12-11-2019 8:32pm

Temp behind the front set to rise for a time and drop again later towards Thurs morning so not giving much chance for anything settling for long lower down.

JanuarySnowstor · 12-11-2019 9:34pm

Things have upgraded a bit again for tomorrow.
I like the chances for the southwest which stays colder for longer.
There's a band of showers spreading down over Kerry/Limerick and Cork through the afternoon that could well produce.
Forget widespread lowland snow but if you go to higher ground you should see some wintry stuff falling. Millstreet hills looks like a sweet spot

Meteorite58 · 12-11-2019 9:45pm

Things have upgraded a bit again for tomorrow.
I like the chances for the southwest which stays colder for longer.
There's a band of showers spreading down over Kerry/Limerick and Cork through the afternoon that could well produce.
Forget widespread lowland snow but if you go to higher ground you should see some wintry stuff falling. Millstreet hills looks like a sweet spot

EURO 4 a bit out on its own showing some heavy wintry falls in the SW early in the day but doesn't give anything for the E.

County bounds could be tricky tomorrow.

JanuarySnowstor · 12-11-2019 10:02pm

I hadn't seen Euro 4 but if you look at the micro detail gfs also shows the same for Southwest. In fact contrary to Met Eireann are saying the coldest air is over the southwest between midday and 6pm tomorrow. In my view that's the best chance not tomorrow night as uppers increase

uck51js9zml2yt · 12-11-2019 10:24pm

Snow on the Kerry Reeks this morning

JanuarySnowstor · 12-11-2019 10:41pm

18z gfs keeps the interest going, in fact it's a slight upgrade again. The Midlands and South remain on snow watch and the sweet spot could well see a fair bit

KingJeremy · 12-11-2019 10:59pm

If there is to be any snow when should we expect it? Wednesday night/early Thursday morning? I’m in south-east Galway and not a particularly high elevation so I’m not expecting anything of night (but hope springs eternal!)

Kermit.de.frog · 12-11-2019 11:23pm

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Posters in Naas right now

Nowcast tomorrow.

pad199207 · 12-11-2019 11:29pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Posters in Naas right now

Nowcast tomorrow.

KingBobby · 13-11-2019 7:00am

Captain Snow wrote: »

Tops of 2 and 3 Rock. Around the Hellfire and Kilikee Road. Kippure Mountain Area. Sallys Gap. Into Wicklow higher ground.

Without intending to get too pedantic, Tibradden Mountain is actually higher than 3 Rock. Its like the forgotten mountain of Dublin.

Graces7 · 13-11-2019 7:52am

Jaliyah Low Foxhound wrote: »

Snow on the Kerry Reeks this morning

A lovely sight as I well remember... Not light yet so I have yet to inspect Mayo.

DOCARCH · 13-11-2019 7:55am

ME forecast a bit more definite this morning...

....rain spreading to most areas later today. Top temperatures 4 to 8 degrees. Some of the rain will turn to sleet and snow in Munster and Leinster, mainly later this afternoon and evening.

Graces7 · 13-11-2019 8:28am

DOCARCH wrote: »

ME forecast a bit more definite this morning...

....rain spreading to most areas later today. Top temperatures 4 to 8 degrees. Some of the rain will turn to sleet and snow in Munster and Leinster, mainly later this afternoon and evening.

We certainly have rain; hard, loud, heavy. west mayo offshore

SleetAndSnow · 13-11-2019 9:06am

Won’t be anything more then sleet at least in cork city, weather says about 6 degrees today and down to about 3/4 tonight.

It is currently showery though, cold rain!

If anybody does get snow please send pictures! They are always lovely to look at!

Mortelaro · 13-11-2019 9:50am

Sleet in Arklow
3.1c

Dew point 0c
Wet bulb 2.2c

Meteorite58 · 13-11-2019 9:50am

Heavy rain in Tralee with sleet in it, very heavy embedded wintry shower of hail, sleet and rain a short time ago dropped some amount of precipitation. Very dark with street lights coming on again.

Looks mostly sleet with wet snow on high ground. Main interest this afternoon / early evening to see how wintry it gets and if it snows for a while. ECM has brought snow chances a bit further S and into the SE. Not showing as much in Wicklow but still possibly could get 5 to 10cm on the mountains. Will see.

Mortelaro · 13-11-2019 10:26am

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Heavy rain in Tralee with sleet in it, very heavy embedded wintry shower of hail, sleet and rain a short time ago dropped some amount of precipitation. Very dark with street lights coming on again.

Looks mostly sleet with wet snow on high ground. Main interest this afternoon / early evening to see how wintry it gets and if it snows for a while. ECM has brought snow chances a bit further S and into the SE. Not showing as much in Wicklow but still possibly could get 5 to 10cm on the mountains. Will see.

Currently 3.3c dew point now 0.7c in Arklow with bits of drizzle
Had sleet earlier
There has been snow falling to about 600ft locally inland already
Though its brightening up now
I was not expecting that tbh,so the day ahead could spring surprises

RobertKK · 13-11-2019 10:27am

From met.ie

Status Yellow - Rainfall warning for Carlow, Kildare, Kilkenny, Laois, Wicklow, Offaly and Tipperary

A spell of heavy rain is likely to lead to some spot flooding and will turn to sleet and snow in places later today.

Valid: Wednesday 13 November 2019 14:00 to Thursday 14 November 2019 02:00

Issued: Wednesday 13 November 2019 07:00

Graces7 · 13-11-2019 10:38am

The heavy rain here in West Mayo has not paused in well over two hours now.

Mortelaro · 13-11-2019 10:48am

Very sunny here now!
Fees colder than windy yesterday

pauldry · 13-11-2019 11:13am

Cold n drizzly in Sligo 5c

Theres sleet in some of the rain as it hits windscreen but 90 per cent rain. Id say if I was driving out Highwood direction near Geevagh thered be a better chance of snow.

Fun to see met eireann forecast snow. Wonder if media are afraid to say too much after Lorenzo or will Virgin Media have a reporter attop Kippure, Neiphen and Carrantuhil

highdef · 13-11-2019 11:38am

Mortelaro wrote: »

Very sunny here now!

"Very sunny" reads as blue skies in all directions. Is it really that clear down there in Costas??? :P

I could be wrong but the visible satellite imagery shows a hole in the cloud layer moving over the Arklow area but it's moving fairly quick. I could only picture a temporary large gap in cloud cover rather a clear sky.

Either way, I'm still jealous that you're getting to see the sun.

Xenji · 13-11-2019 11:47am

Nearly 20mm of rain in Castlebar since midnight already, hovering around the 5C mark currently.

silverharp · 13-11-2019 12:03pm

The hourly met.ie forecast has the Temp going down to 2C for Dublin with hourly rain at 4.9mm between 6-8pm. Sounds miserable.

Harry Palmr · 13-11-2019 12:06pm

The rain is arriving in sudden short clumps of wet, not that cold at the moment and I say that as someone working mainly in an attic today.

pad199207 · 13-11-2019 12:09pm

The rain is starting to stick here in Kildare...

Calibos · 13-11-2019 12:10pm

I take it that the ECM Snow Depth maps that Kermit posted last night are off the cards now? ie No mention of anything other than wet slushy snow on mountain peaks on MT's morning forecast and 6-7ºc