Weds 13th / Thurs 14th Nov 2019: Rainfall warning with Snow and spot flood risk

Gonzo

arctictree wrote: »

15z GFS for Wednesday. Laois/Kilkenny look like they'll be getting a pasting!

This is looking more like a high ground and midlands event. I'd say anywhere within 40 miles of the Irish sea and under 200 meters will mostly see rain. Looks interesting alright for Kilkenny, Laois, Offally.

pad199207

Very akin to what happened in December 2017

If there is any chance of lower level snow well I think danno in Durrow will be the sweet spot.

kod87

looks good for some wet snow on the mountain tops alright, might see some white tops on higher hills in the midlands. Always nice to look at

Kermit.de.frog

Kinda nit picking even at this stage but Icon more north midlands area to lower levels and high ground further south.

Mortelaro

pad199207 wrote: »

Very akin to what happened in December 2017

If there is any chance of lower level snow well I think danno in Durrow will be the sweet spot.

If it's like Dec 17,then the beer garden at scraggs Alley in carlow is the spot

Meteorite58

ECM very consistent in showing snow . Has shifted about a bit where it will fall but has shown it on every run for a few days now. Will it accumulate as showing on the chart , dont know but I suspect some could, thinking some places could get a few cm's , although it would be wet underneath and probably not cold enough to last on lower levels into daylight hours, but could accumulate on higher ground for a time . Looks like heavy wet snow if it does fall. I would imagine places over short distances will be reporting sleet and a few km's away snow and possibly following again with sleet or even following with rain. Noticed that as the band goes through temperatures rise again so plenty of melt happening more or less straight away. All down to the wire with this as regards location and how much will fall and accumulate... as ever!

pad199207

All in all a Gaoth Laidir Nightmare type of Snow

Danno

pad199207 wrote: »

Very akin to what happened in December 2017

If there is any chance of lower level snow well I think danno in Durrow will be the sweet spot.

Lovely.

pad199207

Danno wrote: »

Lovely.

I wonder will those good old ice pellets make a show

Meteorite58

pad199207 wrote: »

All in all a Gaoth Laidir Nightmare type of Snow

Well if it does snow it certainly wont be the white fluffy sort.

JanuarySnowstor

Of course to the naked eye snow that is just about to melt looks far more dramatic than the fluffy snow that might come from the East...

What Username Guidelines

Working class heroes wrote: »

Went for a run yesterday up to the summit of Djouce mountain. Almost blizzard like conditions when I hit about 600m. When I got to the summit I was met be a snowman. Fantastic!!

Same, well I walked, not ran. Lovely and clear, then a cloud moved in and dumped more snow and moved off again. Two kids about 10 and 12 working on a snowman.

Danno

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

Same, well I walked, not ran. Lovely and clear, then a cloud moved in and dumped more snow and moved off again. Two kids about 10 and 12 working on a snowman.

STUNNING Photograph!

JanuarySnowstor

The 18z gfs is a slight upgrade with upper temperatures a fraction lower. All only 48hrs away now. The South and Southeast most at risk

Rougies

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Of course to the naked eye snow that is just about to melt looks far more dramatic than the fluffy snow that might come from the East...

That can often be the case alright. Snowflakes that are partially melting stick together easier and can form those amazing looking "dinner plate" flakes we often see in marginal situations.

In contrast, the first night of Storm Emma was very underwhelming visually and looking outside you could barely tell it was snowing yet the accumulation rate of pure powder snow was insane.

Naggdefy

RobertKK wrote: »

The Castlecomer plateau probably gets some snow. Which rises in parts to over 300m asl.
The Met Eireann definition of high ground is greater than 200m asl.

The weather in Europe is very split, a cold north western half of Europe, and an exceptionally warm south eastern half of Europe.
Friends in Romania and Hungary talk about how unusual the weather is there compared to normal and they are still wearing t-shirts, rather than being wrapped up from the cold they should have.

So we are stuck in the cold and it looks like it will be this way for a while yet.

325m asl at home. The plateau max is half a mile away at 336m asl. Would expect snow and a fair bit with these synoptics.

Graces7

Those pesky drummers been hard at it all night again.. Apparently, or so the story goes, they gate crashed the ferry...Punch drunk with lack of sleep. All stocked up anyways whatever the weather brings.
Stay warm, please.

JanuarySnowstor

It's looking a bit more marginal again this morning. Primarily rain and moving through quite quickly apart from some Eastern areas where it pivots for a while. Any snow looks to be confined to the very highest hills and mountains imo

highdef

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

It's looking a bit more marginal again this morning. Primarily rain and moving through quite quickly apart from some Eastern areas where it pivots for a while. Any snow looks to be confined to the very highest hills and mountains imo

I had a feeling this would be the case as we drew closer to the actual "event" - History tells us that further downgrades of snow potential are more likely than upgrades.

pauldry

This was never going to be much bar mountains but there are more opportunities this month

KingdomRushed

Looking at the latest HIRLAM projections, the flood potential from tomorrow's rain bands has downgraded to near nothing. For instance, there is now only 2-5mm of rain forecast for Dublin for Wednesday into Thursday. This was more like 25-30mm being forecast earlier in the week.

I would say the tomorrow will not amount to much.

Graces7

Just looked at met/ie and the new forecasts are scattered with words like sleet...

pauldry

Even saw white gold mentioned in Munster?

Captain Snow

Todays 12zz.

Possible short Lived WET Snow event for some. Higher Ground will do better.

18.00

21.00

SleetAndSnow

Cork is always in that smidgen of blue . Ah well, its cold here and feels wintery today with a sort of hazy fog and clearish sky. Fells/looks nice.

Naggdefy

Nice to see the red snow marked charts for 13 November

Hopefully a long, cold winter:) I know I'm a turkey wishing for Christmas with bad roads, extra heating etc. But the child in me comes to the fore.

I remember November 1991 in boarding school being like this. Unfortunately it was a mild winter after. November 1996 also. It had a cold December and snow from NYE til 10th January. A forgotten decent cold spell, early January 1997.

I'm pretty sure November 1981 was cold. December definitely was. We all know what happened in January 1982.

Periscal

Some encouraging news(Arome 12Z) but only a temporary situation, if you want to see something white head for west Wicklow, have a pint in Blessington and enjoy maybe 3 to 5cm o wet snow

typhoony

seen these marginal situations before, usually when the front pivots and heads south we get a short period of wet snow maybe lasting 30 minutes on lower ground, an hour on higher ground and settling there, clearing over night to leave a crisp cold day

Gonzo

looks mostly a rain event with marginal sleet or snow as it clears to the south later in the day. High ground mostly at risk in Wicklow, Carlow, Kilkenny and maybe parts of north Cork.

Arpege:


GFS not as over the top with the snow potential:


Hirlam has a bit more snow on it and further north.

spookwoman

Hopefully it covers the comeraghs