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Weds 13th / Thurs 14th Nov 2019: Rainfall warning with Snow and spot flood risk

  • 11-11-2019 8:30am
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 21,787 ✭✭✭✭ Kermit.de.frog


    Been pondering whether or not it's worth a dedicated thread. I think it might be although a little bit of evolution to go yet.

    Snow may reach low levels through Wednesday afternoon and evening leading to minor accumulations particularly inland. Typically a cm or two can be expected. Dublin is also at risk temporarily on Wednesday evening due to an off shore wind (though likely to be the sleet/very wet snow variety).

    Snowfall could lead to commuter disruption. Accumulations should be temporary in most places.

    Some more significant temporary snowfall is possible in both the mid west and southwest through Wednesday night as the occlusion slips away south. And, of course, high ground is to be avoided.

    There is also a risk of spot flooding from heavy rain due to the pivoting front.

    Raw. Temperatures between 0 and 4c generally on your way home (colder as afternoon progresses).


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Comments

  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,101 Mod ✭✭✭✭ DOCARCH


    Was watching Country File forecast on BBC yesterday evening and it was showing quite a bit of 'white' over Ireland for Wednesday!


  • Registered Users Posts: 342 ✭✭ kittyn


    DOCARCH wrote: »
    Was watching Country File forecast on BBC yesterday evening and it was showing quite a bit of 'white' over Ireland for Wednesday!

    Think we may see our first flakes on the ground Doc 😉


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,101 Mod ✭✭✭✭ DOCARCH


    kittyn wrote: »
    Think we may see our first flakes on the ground Doc 😉

    I am always skeptical! :) Maybe some sleetiness.


  • Registered Users Posts: 981 ✭✭✭ Lucreto


    After last year I will take sleet.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,085 ✭✭✭ Billcarson


    The hills should get snow ,that's usually the best we can hope for at this time of yr. Next weekend I hope to drive up to the dublin and Wicklow hills to hopefully see snow up there.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 18,277 ✭✭✭✭ Jaliyah Low Foxhound


    Can we hold the snow off for 2 weeks please? It will be 35C for me then :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 447 ✭✭ KingdomRushed


    It's an interesting set up for sure, and would surely bring much more interest were it now January. However, the longer we remain on the northern fringe of the jet-stream going into winter the more the odds of snow increase as we progress forward. The GFS is very interesting this morning, with quite cold conditions eventually developing later in the operational run, some northern blocking feeding in cold northerlies and north easterlies to Ireland. The ECM not so much, which shows a very large low pressure system once again established over Ireland at Day 10. All models are showing the potential for further 'yellow warning' rain events. Again if this pattern continues, river banks will soon be tested. If I recall right November 2009 was not dissimilar with exceptionally wet conditions prevailing, with very cold rain, systems diving north west to sout east. Then eventually the cold flooded in after christmas. The taster for the epic banquet of 2010, which still sits as king of all cold spells in my lifetime.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,847 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Out of all Novembers runs on GFS theres only been a handful of mild ones. Cold is the overriding theme.

    Certainly a few snow episodes this Winter


  • Registered Users Posts: 581 ✭✭✭ Captain Snow


    Interesting drive home Wednesday afternoon evening for those on the east, south east coast. Higher ground will get hammered.

    JFnVTeJ.png

    Into Thursday we have an easterly. Possible Snow train on to higher ground, Sleet lower levels.

    VRsSKX6.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,836 ✭✭✭✭ Rock Lesnar


    You're bound to get 1 right at some stage Kermit ;)


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,171 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    I'm not expecting much if anything here in Meath, we're probably a bit too far north and most likely light rain or sleet if it falls here.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,357 ✭✭✭ highdef


    I'm watching this like a hawk. I'm in North Kildare near the Meath border @ just under 90m ASL with a hill (Grange Hill) just under 150m to my immediate NE, another hill about 130m to my immediate south. Land is over 100m in all directions around me except for west and southwest.

    Going by the above charts, I would realistically expect wet snow at my house, sticking to grass, cars, etc but a slushy mess on the roads and a good covering of wet snow on the top of Grange Hill.......usually happens a few times in any given winter.

    I'll be keeping an eye on the CCTV from work so can abandon ship if things take a turn for the worse.

    Having said that, by typing out the above, I've probably jinxed it!


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,114 ✭✭✭✭ Larbre34


    There is nothing in this to warrant a thread, seasonal accumulations of snow above 300m and spells of cold rain with the same spot flooding at all levels seen in recent weeks thanks to continuing leaf fall and a decent windchill requiring tights and gloves for anyone sports training midweek. Might warrant a yellow rainfall warning from Met É but hardly worth talking about.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,847 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    I disagree. I tend to think that threads are interesting for these events. They let us evaluate overall forecasting models and accuracy. Roads in rural spots n hills could be dodge on Thursday morning with slush so best to be informed.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,836 ✭✭✭✭ Rock Lesnar


    Im around 120asl here in meath, and surrounded by higher hills, we can get snow no matter how little so will be interesting to see if we get any, i think we might be a little north but sure we'll see


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,357 ✭✭✭ highdef


    I'm with Pauldry on this. If the weather pans out as is being currently modeled by some of the computer models, there is a reasonable chance that this could affect a good number of people. There has been nothing to suggest anything severe but threads like this are good to follow the evolution of a forecast over time.

    I normally take the high road over the top of Grange Hill when driving home from work but based on this forecast it might be a better idea for me to take the low road to avoid any snow that may be sticking on the hill.........Of course, in reality I will obviously venture over the hill to try get a white gold fix :P


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,384 ✭✭✭ JanuarySnowstor


    Upper 850 temperatures are not low enough I think. I would think it's more mountains than even high ground. Welcome the thread though as it's certainly an event worth watching

    The South most at risk as this is where the coldest air comes across!


  • Registered Users Posts: 981 ✭✭✭ Lucreto


    The Run in the Dark on Wednesday in Dublin will be fun.


  • Registered Users Posts: 348 ✭✭ torres9kop


    Will it snow on Wednesday night in Dublin 4 on the coast please?


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,384 ✭✭✭ JanuarySnowstor


    torres9kop wrote: »
    Will it snow on Wednesday night in Dublin 4 on the coast please?
    Not likely, it's mainly a highground risk.
    But then you never know in heavier ppn


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 32,688 ✭✭✭✭ Ignacio Early Fleece


    Other than the Wicklow mountains, I think this will be a non event. A slight risk of wintery showers early but quickly followed by rain elsewhere.


  • Registered Users Posts: 33,549 ✭✭✭✭ RobertKK


    The Castlecomer plateau probably gets some snow. Which rises in parts to over 300m asl.
    The Met Eireann definition of high ground is greater than 200m asl.

    The weather in Europe is very split, a cold north western half of Europe, and an exceptionally warm south eastern half of Europe.
    Friends in Romania and Hungary talk about how unusual the weather is there compared to normal and they are still wearing t-shirts, rather than being wrapped up from the cold they should have.

    So we are stuck in the cold and it looks like it will be this way for a while yet.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,454 ✭✭✭ Storm 10


    Look at the snow they had in Donegal last night was that forecast, no harm in having something to chat about especially if it does sleet/snow


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,431 ✭✭✭ Mortelaro


    Latest BBC news 24 graphics has that snow developing in West ulster, increasing as it heads down west leinster/East connaught and into North and west munster eventually, fed by a long land sweep northerly feed of already cold air that might just be enough to drag most of the parameters the right side of marginal for snow before it clears away
    Their graphics grew the blob of snow as it moved south which would be in keeping with the long feed of land passage dropping those dew points


  • Registered Users Posts: 691 ✭✭✭ hoody


    Other than the Wicklow mountains, I think this will be a non event. A slight risk of winery showers early but quickly followed by rain elsewhere.

    I hate the grammar pedants as much as anyone, but I am definitely on for a few downpours of vino!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 32,688 ✭✭✭✭ Ignacio Early Fleece


    hoody wrote: »
    I hate the grammar pedants as much as anyone, but I am definitely on for a few downpours of vino!

    Don't you just love autocorrect at times. :rolleyes:

    I'll settle for a decent glass of red over a coating of white any day.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,049 ✭✭✭ Working class heroes


    Went for a run yesterday up to the summit of Djouce mountain. Almost blizzard like conditions when I hit about 600m. When I got to the summit I was met be a snowman. Fantastic!!

    A man who knows he knows nothing knows more than a man who thinks he knows everything.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,044 ✭✭✭ arctictree


    15z GFS for Wednesday. Laois/Kilkenny look like they'll be getting a pasting!

    GFSOPUK12_51_53.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 581 ✭✭✭ Captain Snow


    POUNDED with Snow:D:D

    9Y8ItKJ.png


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  • Registered Users Posts: 652 ✭✭✭ blackwave


    Meant to be driving from South Kilkenny to Dublin on Wednesday late afternoon /evening looks like I will be taking the M11 instead of the M9 just to be safe :D


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