Winter 2010-2011 outlook

Kippure wrote: »

Winter will start in october 2010 and end in april 2011.

Colder and more snow then any of us could ever think about !

let's hope that councils are planning to acquire salt and grity supplies in advance this time.

COLD DOWN UNDER

Sydney was blanketed in frost on Wednesday as the city shivered through the coldest June morning in nearly 30 years, with temperatures at just 4C (39F).

Thanks to an Antarctic front blown toward Australia by strong winds, Sydney awoke to its coldest June morning since 1983.

Frost covered the ground in city parks, as well as large swaths of inland New South Wales, pushing the temperature to -4C (24.8F) in the rural towns of Bourke and Walgett.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/australiaandthepacific/australia/7863227/Australians-shiver-through-coldest-winter-morning-in-30-years.html

Supercell wrote: »

I just see a chart where today's lows are yesteryears highs?

bastardi was on about this today. he didn't expand on his one liner though

http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bastardi-europe-blog.asp?partner=accuweather

JOE BASTARDI latest posts

THURSDAY 7 PM THAT CFS BETTER NOT HAPPEN!
The more I look at this, the more I think... this better not happen. It is startling what is being forecast in that model. Absolutely astonishing. The Hansen based GISS, which is being used as the warmingista community as the go-to temperature basis, was the one that had almost the whole globe blazing red this winter, especially the Arctic... Remember. Now think about this, if we look at the objective sat temps here:
http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/UAH_LT_1979_thru_June_10.gif
and we assume that the fierce red the Hansen based group has is correct, then we come up with their representation leading to a global temperatures of plus .6 C or so. But that was with the Earth on fire according to them. So mind you, I am simply comparing what they want us to use, though to be sure it involves some "adjustment" of temperatures.
But here is how they get burned. Suppose the model is right on what is coming... or even half right. Most of the Earth is blue... the Arctic is blue, the Antarctic blue... it's the... ahem... polar opposite of last year.
Just what the heck is that saying about the globl temperatures? That is what is so startling. That model is cold well beyond what I looked for as a drop (down to near or below normal for next year), but not a three-month period that looks like it's from Ice Station Zebra...
Again, people want to claim I am not using GISS data, they want that to be the official data. Well then, if the set-the-world-on-fire GISS data from last winter is what you want to use and we were at plus .6 or so, then what are we going to be at if the almighty climate model is right? Again, I think it's overdone, but lord help us if it isn't.
In the years I have been watching the CFS, the cold period in early 2008 after the last El Nino looked like this: (note... make sure you connect the entire lettering at the end)
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst_history/200801/imag es/glbT2mSea.girly
As cold as the forecast for Jan-Mar 2011. Tomorrow I will line them up on a video and put it on the free site for you to see.
How ironic, eh? You want to use that GISS data that was burning the Arctic last year. Okay, last winter gave us plus .6. What is going to happen if this thing is even half right this winter for that global temperature?

Ciao for now. ****

THURSDAY 1 AM LONDON TIME
THE CLIMATE MODEL SEES THE COMING CRASH.
Think the markets are in the tank? Wait till you global temperature watchers get a load of what is coming. Even the models are catching on. In the forecast, below on this link, blue represents cold and the tannish to orange colors warm...
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/images3/glbT2mSea.g if
Note: please make sure the gif (last 3 characters) are together. I have heard tell that they skip... with the g separate from the if.
Now I just heard someone who obviously doesn't agree with me, and has labeled me the world's worst forecaster, is ranting at me that I am wrong. Well, I am either wrong, or right, and we will see. But the drastic drop being portrayed here is something akin to the kind of cooling we saw with Pinatubo. The screamers either are in denial, or know it's coming (I think a lot of them do) and are making hay while the sun shines (it's warm). But my readers know that was forecast also, that there would be a huge push with the warm summer and the hurricane season (which, by the way, were predicted here too).
Now let me say this about the model. It looks rather extreme. I mean, both poles cold, and then 75 percent of the Earth under normal? Geez, I know there is cooling that is going to go on, but this is a bit drastic. But still I think you get the point. If it's the almighty climate models that are the reason to keep forecasting warm, and they are showing this kind of crash (such an event could take the running 13-month temperature of the Earth next year to -.2, or -.3... as this La Nina, low solar cyclone, and cumulative volcanic activity means business, then things may be quicker than I thought. But it is interesting, for someone like me who is supposed to be so bad, to now have the models seeing what I was saying from a few months ago about what lurked beyond this Nino spike, to have the kind of vitriol I hear coming my way.
Why so tense? If you are right, and I am wrong... then you will have no greater ally than me. However, I suspect that if I AM RIGHT, I won't be able to say the same about folks who seem to think that no matter what happens, they have to have their way.
Sounds rather childish.
We will see where the temperatures are a year from now, and what they do over the coming decades.

Ciao for now. ****
TUESDAY NOON LONDON TIME.
Enjoying this summer? Arctic sea ice right where it should be!
Let's see, 4F above normal, precip 26%. If anything, I was not warm enough and not dry enough. However fear not, we still have the rest of the summer to go and the forecast for a bit warmer, by drier than normal looks good. I hope everyone is barbecuing. And you should enjoy it, another colder-than-normal winter is on the way.
The site:
http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/observation_images/s smi1_ice_area.png
shows my sea ice forecast this year is spot on. (If you were reading earlier, I expected a big drop that would get it below last year but not as low as 2007). And for the ministers of propaganda on this matter that don't understand how this works, you will see NEXT SUMMER has the highest amount of sea ice since the early part of last decade. Sad to say the ice will rebuild... two steps forward one step back.
But I have observed the cackling of delight at the demise of the ice cap this summer with amusement. Because 1) The THICKNESS OF THE ICE is greater and 2) The Polar temps, courtesy of the cooling that is starting are lower than normal this summer.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
All one need do is some deductive reasoning (if you knew what was coming, and one comes up with a logical conclusion). In fact, a look at the site cryosphere today shows that amazingly the Northern Hemisphere sea ice, though well below normal, may have already reached its low point, and it was even to last year (if this is right, I actually over estimated melt).
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.anomaly.arctic.png
Now I will keep making forecasts from time to time, then you can judge on what is right or wrong. It seems though that either I have Rasputin whispering in my ear, or some things said months before seem to have a way of showing up. I will have to trust you were reading earlier on these matters; if not, well nothing I can do about that.
In any case, enjoy your summer. Another cold winter looks to be lurking and hopefully you will remember the summer barbecues this year in winter... and remember he mentioned winter was going to be cold.
Ciao for now.

Saw this explanation of the coming winter for UK. Does this synopsis stand up do you think?

The Winter forecast for London, UK for the 2010 - 2011 Winter expect below avg. temperatures and above average snow. The reason this is going to happen is that the La Nina weather phenomenon is now building in the Eastern Pacific and should continue until next Spring. For Canada this always brings more weather systems out of the North West resulting in colder temps & more snowfall. Then once the Low pressure area leaves Canada it picks up some extra energy from the Atlantic Ocean and by the time the Low hits the UK is is colder than normal and drops more snow than normal.

another view

it is expected to be another cold winter and with the atlantic expected to be more stronger, that coudl mean some big snow totals again. this winter was severe and the atlantic was very weak. if you listen to the news you would know it is the driest year since 1929. the atlantic has been dead, yet we managed to get some big snow totals in the uk. just imagine, next winter ,a stronger atlantic, bumping into cold air, equals large snow amounts. winter 2010/11 here we come...

Joe B on a global warming rant
http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bastardi-europe-blog.asp?partner=accuweather

From Welsh-based Positive Weather Solutions

"As far as Winter 2010/11 goes, a very good percentage is showing for a 'White Christmas' and we expect this coming Winter to be as brutal as last year's, which we predicted very accurately indeed, right down to the prolonged cold temperatures extending into March".



Autumn 2010 NETWEATHER
Autumn
September & October
As usual at this sort of range, confidence really tends to fall away and moreso on this update as even August is causing some real headaches from a forecasting perspective. Currently, September is anticipated to be another drier than average month, with October perhaps reversing that trend and seeing rainfall totals close to or above average quite widely. Temperatures are expected to be close to average in September but a little way above average in October.

Yes Nacho you are right. they did not include Ireland in their summer forecast.

JOE B

MONDAY 11:30 PM
GLOBAL TEMPS GO BELOW LAST YEAR!
For the first time this year, the global temps have retreated below last years level.

http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/execute.csh?amsutemps
In addition the polar temp is almost 2f below normal now and is very close to freezing

http://wattsupwiththat.com/sea-ice-page/
scroll down to find.
ciao for now ****

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
You have to understand, 2C below normal at the warmest time of the year, or 2C above normal at this time of the year, is a much greater variance than the big swings at the cold time of the year. You should go back and look at their data back to 1958 and you will be hard pressed to find a colder summer in the Arctic through this time of the year! - JOE B



Interesting El Nino discussion on coming winter, albeit centred around North America, here.

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=18806&st=80