Share Picks 2020

Kilboor · 28-04-2020 12:33pm

voluntary wrote: »

Just a common sense. The worst economic crisis since the WW1 and the market optimism not seen since whatever. Tons of "John, the taxi driver" investors storming the brokerage firms in hope to "buy low" and ones who didn't buy low are buying now in fear of FOMO.

I just don't believe this has legs.

If it pops as bad as the great depression then my losses in the stock market will be the least of my worries. Inflation is sending stocks wild, who knows when it pops.

voluntary · 28-04-2020 12:40pm

If investors believed in the quick rebound they would be buying OIL right now. In the meantime OIL keeps crashing. Businesses will soon start defaulting one after another. We're sitting in a gas-filled room waiting for the ignition to happen.

I may of course be wrong but that's my play.

Nemeses2050 · 28-04-2020 1:29pm

OwlsZat wrote: »

VSTM very disappointing as the P1 results are fairly in line with what I would have expected. 67% ORR in LGSOC which makes the HUGE selloff all the more confusing. It's a disease with very few treatment options. The sell of was intitiated by a 3M share dump on open, which I'd suggest had to be premeditated... I think I'll swing trade it from now on.

AYTU gas very had to figure out this one. A third owned by Sabby always the talk of Stocktwits.... The stock has licence agreement for America, Canada, Mexico for a Chineese COVID antibody test which claims 90% reliability. There is poor PR in terms of who used what and when and who has ordered what. Susposidly 500k sold, 1M ordered best I can work out.... Then there is the Trump and Healight scandal. Again, licensed technology developed at a plush LA hospital over the last few years. Steralising virus and bacterial in the trachea using filtered IR light. Perhaps, can give an improvement for little cost. Don't think it would ever have the capacity to cure someone at best reduce time in ICU. The stock feels very smoke and mirrors. Again, seems setup for swing trades such is the volatitiliy.

VSTM, one of the drugs they were testing...didn't have the expected success rate...I suppose that contributed to it's fall yesterday.

"Combination of VS-6766 and Defactinib Demonstrates 67% (4/6 Patients) Overall Response Rate in KRAS Mutant Low-Grade Serous Ovarian Cancer in Phase 1 Trial

Subsequent Combined Analysis (VS-6766 Monotherapy and Defactinib Combination) Demonstrates 57% (4/7 Patients) Overall Response Rate in KRASG12V Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer" - Source

Nemeses2050 · 28-04-2020 1:32pm

4D Pharmacy doing great today...someone called it last week...

I didn't get it though

OwlsZat · 28-04-2020 1:41pm

Nemeses2050 wrote: »

VSTM, one of the drugs they were testing...didn't have the expected success rate...I suppose that contributed to it's fall yesterday.

"Combination of VS-6766 and Defactinib Demonstrates 67% (4/6 Patients) Overall Response Rate in KRAS Mutant Low-Grade Serous Ovarian Cancer in Phase 1 Trial

Subsequent Combined Analysis (VS-6766 Monotherapy and Defactinib Combination) Demonstrates 57% (4/7 Patients) Overall Response Rate in KRASG12V Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer" - Source

There was no expected response rate. It's a P1 study. It's for determining toxicity and appropriate dosing. I'm not a doctor but I dont think it had diddly to do with the results. They were studying 3 different diseases all studies continue which would appear to be a a positive result!

riddles · 28-04-2020 1:43pm

Just a question in Degiro W-8BEN form - any advice on how to proceed on this, thanks.

W-8BEN form (substitute)
You can apply for a reduced withholding tax rate on US source income under the double tax treaty between your country of tax residence and the United States of America. Based on the information you provide, DEGIRO will determine your entitlement to treaty benefits.

retalivity · 28-04-2020 1:59pm

Re VSTM, I sold at $4.25 last week, bought back in at $2.20 yesterday. If anything i was able bank the bump and get the BEP down, still in the red overall with that though.

And speaking of old boards picks, I am finally out of Hive at €0.24 with an overall profit of €29. Never thought I would see the day....

Bob Harris · 28-04-2020 2:03pm

retalivity wrote: »

Re VSTM, I sold at $4.25 last week, bought back in at $2.20 yesterday. If anything i was able bank the bump and get the BEP down, still in the red overall with that though.

And speaking of old boards picks, I am finally out of Hive at €0.24 with an overall profit of €29. Never thought I would see the day....

I was telling myself to sell VSTM before yesterday but didn't, averaged down yesterday so BEP is only a bit above current SP. May fall before it recovers but should get into the mid/high 2's once all the dumpers and daily shorters have buggered off.

littlemac1980 · 28-04-2020 2:53pm

Here’s a little more info on GameStop:

Filing of Proxy documents today-

https://flashalert.me/?symbol=GME&source=SEC&referer=https://stocktwits.com/&url=https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1326380/000092189520001207/dfan14a112166002_04272020.htm&s3=GME/2020-04-28/09-42-24_000000/DFAN14A/36d7a6a6b01067a248bcd7e06b9fb2f0/dfan14a112166002_04272020.htm

Details on Short Interest (at 94.45%):

https://www.highshortinterest.com/

Looks like the bump was “short” lived, down nearly 8 % now.

littlemac1980 · 28-04-2020 3:14pm

Looks like nearly everything is taking a sharp turn red.

OwlsZat · 28-04-2020 3:31pm

retalivity wrote: »

Re VSTM, I sold at $4.25 last week, bought back in at $2.20 yesterday. If anything i was able bank the bump and get the BEP down, still in the red overall with that though.

And speaking of old boards picks, I am finally out of Hive at €0.24 with an overall profit of €29. Never thought I would see the day....

I sold 20% @4.15. It won't take much to get me back in the green but alas, a big opportunity gone again. They have a few readouts over the next while need to study them get my ducks in a row.

28-04-2020 3:32pm

Nemeses2050 wrote: »

4D Pharmacy doing great today...someone called it last week...

I didn't get it though

that was me.........

Augeo wrote: »

https://pharmafield.co.uk/pharma_news/mhra_fast_track_nod_for_uk_pharma_companys_covid-19_study/

4d Pharma PLC

currently under 60p, was £1 prior to a placing in Feb that was at 50p, RNS yesterday regarding Phase II study in COVID-19.

Company is funded for the short term after the recent placing, they are working on a treatment not a vaccine........ as folk likely know, a vaccine being developed isn't at all guaranteed.

I'd put this one as low risk but potential high reward, and it'll be sooner rather then later

It's 66p now, you haven't missed the boat IMO, the trial probably hasn't started in earnest as yet, as in 90 people won't be under the trial now. Results won't be for 2 months or so ........ and the Covid19 thing is one prong in the fork.

4d have other trials going on, one with MSDs blockbuster cancer drug, Keytruda.

Directors bought £2m combined at the recent 50p placing......... I'd thing & hope this one has way more upside then todays rise, which is likely on the back of a Motley Foool article......... most of the other online mentions are from pharma newsletter type yokes, not the investor style folk.

Shedite27 · 28-04-2020 5:25pm

littlemac1980 wrote: »

Looks like nearly everything is taking a sharp turn red.

As I was trying to figure out Sunday, the S&P rebound has really only been a mega-cap tech rebound (FAANG + Microsoft). They've all been down the past 2 days, and we're finally seeing what the rest of the market has to offer. Yesterday some old favourites kept the market up, today they're all down

weemcd · 28-04-2020 5:32pm

Augeo wrote: »

that was me.........

It's 66p now, you haven't missed the boat IMO, the trial probably hasn't started in earnest as yet, as in 90 people won't be under the trial now. Results won't be for 2 months or so ........ and the Covid19 thing is one prong in the fork.

4d have other trials going on, one with MSDs blockbuster cancer drug, Keytruda.

Directors bought £2m combined at the recent 50p placing......... I'd thing & hope this one has way more upside then todays rise, which is likely on the back of a Motley Foool article......... most of the other online mentions are from pharma newsletter type yokes, not the investor style folk.

Took a small punt on this for fun. I'm out of everything else. I only recently started investing with tiny sums but I can't make sense of anything at the minute.

I should break even or even have a small profit. But I'll sit on the sidelines for the time being. Save me getting my hands burned.

littlemac1980 · 28-04-2020 5:45pm

If anyone is prepared to try catch a falling knife, have a look at CEMI, it’s another of the FDA approved COVID tests.

It has dropped about 30% in 2 days. Why? No idea!

No reason it won’t keep falling (I suppose) but I said I’d risk a very small amount today in case it bounces back up.

Had been going strong the past month, so likely a lot of early purchasers cashing out on the decline and possibly many more yet to come. But I said I’d take a very small punt.

I’m a total noob so don’t take my actions as any reason to buy, just said I’d post the info and draw attention and people can make up their own minds.

Also picked up a handful of IBM today on their very short dip to red. Hoping they stay steady and can maintain dividends over the next 12-18 months.

Lex Luthor · 28-04-2020 7:48pm

ENZ on fire today

bizidea · 28-04-2020 9:34pm

Have a small postition in jnce it will be a long hold anyone else in it

littlemac1980 · 28-04-2020 11:26pm

So I’ve been following some forum discussions about GameStop, you know to pick up some “knowledge” through osmosis.

From what I gather a number of folks on Stocktwits seem to have formed the view that there are no longer any shares available to be loaned out.

I could be wrong, (and forgive my ignorance if so) but I think they are implying that therefore there is a huge “shortage” of options available to hedge positions currently in-play.

Someone posted this to show the issue:

$GME

NameGAMESTOP CORP-CLASS A
Number of Lenders with Inventory 0
Symbol @ ExchangeGME@NYSE
ISIN CodeXXXXXXXW109
CountryUnited States
Quantity Available 0
Current Rebate Rate*-199.1485
Current Fee Rate**199.1885

It’s a bit over my head at this point to be honest but it’s interesting stuff.

1123heavy · 29-04-2020 2:50am

What do people think of IAG?

Aviation is bound to bounce back at some point and this company are one of the few who have the financial liquidity to see out this COVID crisis whilst not carrying the risk of any government takeover that some other airlines/parent groups harbour

Shares pre crisis were in the 600s and now are in the low 200s

retalivity · 29-04-2020 6:13am

Anything airline related still has some way to drop imo. I'm waiting and watching...

Shedite27 · 29-04-2020 8:26am

retalivity wrote: »

Anything airline related still has some way to drop imo. I'm waiting and watching...

Me too, there's too many companies that are going to bounce back in the next 6 months at the moment. Airlines and Cruises are for the Share Picks 2021 thread.

weemcd · 29-04-2020 8:39am

4D with a good start today. Interesting to see where it goes.

Also AMD down 3-4% pre market. Solid company imo, may look at them once it is possible to get a decent read on the market, as we are living in upside down world at the minute.

29-04-2020 8:55am

weemcd wrote: »

4D with a good start today. Interesting to see where it goes..............

In previous trials on asthma patients there was no adverse effects of the drug currently being trialled on Covid19 patients. There is confidence that the drug will prove beneficial in slowing or preventing the need for ventilation. The trial shall confirm or disprove that

Apart from the Covid trial, longterm there's confidence as directors bought £2m worth of shares at recent 50p placing. MSD also have a 7% share in the company.

Could see £5+ soon if there's a positive leak on the trial, it's on the AIM market which is notorious for pump and dump too.

The higher it goes from 50p the greater the risk of course.

Personally, I bought a nice enough wedge, I plan to sell off in 10%s as the shareprice rises x5 ......... if it doesn't rise by that I'll be a longterm holder, if it goes bananas I'll make a nice few quid quickly.

voluntary · 29-04-2020 8:56am

Airlines and cruise lines - it's a risky play, there will be defaults, there will be full and partial nationalization, there will be restructuration wiping out shareholder value.

Banks - this is a different story altogether. With the ECB and other central banks pumping an unlimited amount of cash, there's not much risk of banks going down (like in 2008). There's a different problem today. The banks may do well and keep stable, but may not make much profit (if any). What's good for the system stability isn't looking good for shareholders.

29-04-2020 9:06am

Some more 4d info..........

The Company has six clinical studies in progress:

* A Phase II clinical study of BLAUTIX(R) in Irritable Bowel Syndrome (IBS).

* A Phase I/II study of MRx0518 in combination with KEYTRUDA(R) (pembrolizumab) in solid tumours.

* A Phase I study of MRx0518 in a neoadjuvant setting for patients with solid tumours.

* A Phase I study of MRx0518 in patients with pancreatic cancer

* A Phase I/II study of MRx-4DP0004 in asthma.

* A Phase II study of MRx-4DP0004 in patients with COVID-19.

Also, Preclinical-stage programmes include candidates for CNS disease such as Parkinson's disease and other neurodegenerative conditions.

& The Company has a research collaboration and option to license agreement with MSD (the tradename of Merck & Co., Inc, Kenilworth, NJ USA), to discover and develop LBPs for vaccines.

Mad_maxx · 29-04-2020 9:25am

retalivity wrote: »

Anything airline related still has some way to drop imo. I'm waiting and watching...

if they go to the wall , they certainly have further to drop , those that will survive like ryanair or IAG , the bad news is probably priced in

trick is knowing - guessing correctly which ones make it out the other side

Harpon · 29-04-2020 9:48am

Mad_maxx wrote: »

if they go to the wall , they certainly have further to drop , those that will survive like ryanair or IAG , the bad news is probably priced in

trick is knowing - guessing correctly which ones make it out the other side

Ryanair was lower 6 months ago on brexit fears. A hard brexit is now more likely than ever as Britain won’t want to be bailing out other EU nations like Italy, so it’s the perfect excuse for Boris to take them out at the end of the year whether there is an agreement or not. Given that and the fact Ryanair won’t have any money coming in for the next 4 months they should be way lower.

Lex Luthor · 29-04-2020 9:52am

weemcd wrote: »

4D with a good start today. Interesting to see where it goes.

Also AMD down 3-4% pre market. Solid company imo, may look at them once it is possible to get a decent read on the market, as we are living in upside down world at the minute.

very good company, I rode them all the way from $13 into the 30's

Semi should be ok

Look at the XSD ETF, it covers a good spread of semi companies if thats your interest

Jim2007 · 29-04-2020 10:13am

Harpon wrote: »

Ryanair was lower 6 months ago on brexit fears. A hard brexit is now more likely than ever as Britain won’t want to be bailing out other EU nations like Italy, so it’s the perfect excuse for Boris to take them out at the end of the year whether there is an agreement or not. Given that and the fact Ryanair won’t have any money coming in for the next 4 months they should be way lower.

Investing is not the place to journey into the world of fiction... the UK has left the EU and is in a transition period. That transition agreement does not include any obligations to support a bailout of any member state and even if the UK were still a member state it would not be obligated to bail out a Euro Group state, just like it was not obligated to bailout Ireland in the past.

What happens to the transition agreement will depend a lot on how the economics play out over the next six months and how the UK fancy it’s changes to negotiating alternative trade deals facing into what promises to be the worst recession in a 100 years.

Harpon · 29-04-2020 10:35am

When I said bailout, I’m talking about the likes of corona bonds which is being talked about

Share Picks 2020

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